The Arctic region is experiencing accelerated sea ice melt and increased iceberg detachment from glaciers due to climate change.These drifting icebergs present a risk and engineering challenge for subsea installations...The Arctic region is experiencing accelerated sea ice melt and increased iceberg detachment from glaciers due to climate change.These drifting icebergs present a risk and engineering challenge for subsea installations traversing shallow waters,where ice-berg keels may reach the seabed,potentially damaging subsea structures.Consequently,costly and time-intensive iceberg manage-ment operations,such as towing and rerouting,are undertaken to safeguard subsea and offshore infrastructure.This study,therefore,explores the application of extra tree regression(ETR)as a robust solution for estimating iceberg draft,particularly in the preliminary phases of decision-making for iceberg management projects.Nine ETR models were developed using parameters influencing iceberg draft.Subsequent analyses identified the most effective models and significant input variables.Uncertainty analysis revealed that the superior ETR model tended to overestimate iceberg drafts;however,it achieved the highest precision,correlation,and simplicity in estimation.Comparison with decision tree regression,random forest regression,and empirical methods confirmed the superior perfor-mance of ETR in predicting iceberg drafts.展开更多
The probability of default(PD) is the key element in the New Basel Capital Accord and the most essential factor to financial institutions' risk management.To obtain good PD estimation,practitioners and academics h...The probability of default(PD) is the key element in the New Basel Capital Accord and the most essential factor to financial institutions' risk management.To obtain good PD estimation,practitioners and academics have put forward numerous default prediction models.However,how to use multiple models to enhance overall performance on default prediction remains untouched.In this paper,a parametric and non-parametric combination model is proposed.Firstly,binary logistic regression model(BLRM),support vector machine(SVM),and decision tree(DT) are used respectively to establish models with relatively stable and high performance.Secondly,in order to make further improvement to the overall performance,a combination model using the method of multiple discriminant analysis(MDA) is constructed.In this way,the coverage rate of the combination model is greatly improved,and the risk of miscarriage is effectively reduced.Lastly,the results of the combination model are analyzed by using the K-means clustering,and the clustering distribution is consistent with a normal distribution.The results show that the combination model based on parametric and non-parametric can effectively enhance the overall performance on default prediction.展开更多
文摘The Arctic region is experiencing accelerated sea ice melt and increased iceberg detachment from glaciers due to climate change.These drifting icebergs present a risk and engineering challenge for subsea installations traversing shallow waters,where ice-berg keels may reach the seabed,potentially damaging subsea structures.Consequently,costly and time-intensive iceberg manage-ment operations,such as towing and rerouting,are undertaken to safeguard subsea and offshore infrastructure.This study,therefore,explores the application of extra tree regression(ETR)as a robust solution for estimating iceberg draft,particularly in the preliminary phases of decision-making for iceberg management projects.Nine ETR models were developed using parameters influencing iceberg draft.Subsequent analyses identified the most effective models and significant input variables.Uncertainty analysis revealed that the superior ETR model tended to overestimate iceberg drafts;however,it achieved the highest precision,correlation,and simplicity in estimation.Comparison with decision tree regression,random forest regression,and empirical methods confirmed the superior perfor-mance of ETR in predicting iceberg drafts.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China Key Project under Grant No.70933003the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.70871109 and 71203247
文摘The probability of default(PD) is the key element in the New Basel Capital Accord and the most essential factor to financial institutions' risk management.To obtain good PD estimation,practitioners and academics have put forward numerous default prediction models.However,how to use multiple models to enhance overall performance on default prediction remains untouched.In this paper,a parametric and non-parametric combination model is proposed.Firstly,binary logistic regression model(BLRM),support vector machine(SVM),and decision tree(DT) are used respectively to establish models with relatively stable and high performance.Secondly,in order to make further improvement to the overall performance,a combination model using the method of multiple discriminant analysis(MDA) is constructed.In this way,the coverage rate of the combination model is greatly improved,and the risk of miscarriage is effectively reduced.Lastly,the results of the combination model are analyzed by using the K-means clustering,and the clustering distribution is consistent with a normal distribution.The results show that the combination model based on parametric and non-parametric can effectively enhance the overall performance on default prediction.
