According to the latest version(version 2.0) of the China global Merged Surface Temperature(CMST2.0) dataset, the global mean surface temperature(GMST) in the first half of 2023 reached its third warmest value since t...According to the latest version(version 2.0) of the China global Merged Surface Temperature(CMST2.0) dataset, the global mean surface temperature(GMST) in the first half of 2023 reached its third warmest value since the period of instrumental observation began, being only slightly lower than the values recorded in 2016 and 2020, and historically record-breaking GMST emerged from May to July 2023. Further analysis also indicates that if the surface temperature in the last five months of 2023 approaches the average level of the past five years, the annual average surface temperature anomaly in 2023 of approximately 1.26°C will break the previous highest surface temperature, which was recorded in 2016of approximately 1.25°C(both values relative to the global pre-industrialization period, i.e., the average value from 1850 to1900). With El Ni?o triggering a record-breaking hottest July, record-breaking average annual temperatures will most likely become a reality in 2023.展开更多
The record-breaking mei-yu in the Yangtze-Huaihe River valley(YHRV)in 2020 was characterized by an early onset,a delayed retreat,a long duration,a wide meridional rainbelt,abundant precipitation,and frequent heavy rai...The record-breaking mei-yu in the Yangtze-Huaihe River valley(YHRV)in 2020 was characterized by an early onset,a delayed retreat,a long duration,a wide meridional rainbelt,abundant precipitation,and frequent heavy rainstorm processes.It is noted that the East Asian monsoon circulation system presented a significant quasi-biweekly oscillation(QBWO)during the mei-yu season of 2020 that was associated with the onset and retreat of mei-yu,a northward shift and stagnation of the rainbelt,and the occurrence and persistence of heavy rainstorm processes.Correspondingly,during the mei-yu season,the monsoon circulation subsystems,including the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH),the upper-level East Asian westerly jet,and the low-level southwesterly jet,experienced periodic oscillations linked with the QBWO.Most notably,the repeated establishment of a large southerly center,with relatively stable latitude,led to moisture convergence and ascent which was observed to develop repeatedly.This was accompanied by a long-term duration of the mei-yu rainfall in the YHRV and frequent occurrences of rainstorm processes.Moreover,two blocking highs were present in the middle to high latitudes over Eurasia,and a trough along the East Asian coast was also active,which allowed cold air intrusions to move southward through the northwestern and/or northeastern paths.The cold air frequently merged with the warm and moist air from the low latitudes resulting in low-level convergence over the YHRV.The persistent warming in the tropical Indian Ocean is found to be an important external contributor to an EAP/PJ-like teleconnection pattern over East Asia along with an intensified and southerly displaced WPSH,which was observed to be favorable for excessive rainfall over YHRV.展开更多
In this paper,a hindcast study of the record-breaking rainfall event occurring in Beijing on 21July 2012,is conducted by using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model forced by National Centers for Environmenta...In this paper,a hindcast study of the record-breaking rainfall event occurring in Beijing on 21July 2012,is conducted by using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model forced by National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)Global Forecasting System(GFS)outputs,paired with an investigation of the impact of topography in this region.The results indicate that WRF can reasonably predict the salient features of orographic precipitation;the 24-h rainfall amount and spatial distribution compare reasonably well with the observations.The hindcast simulation also indicates that rainfall events can be predicted approximately 36 h ahead.When the topography is removed,the spatial distribution of rainfall changes remarkably,suggesting the importance of the topography in determining rainfall structure.These results also indicate that prediction of such city-scale heavy rainfall events would benefit from a high-resolution prediction system.展开更多
Aqueous supercapacitors(SCs)have been regarded as a promising candidate for commercial energy storage device due to their superior safety,low cost,and environmental benignity.Unfortunately,an age-old challenge of achi...Aqueous supercapacitors(SCs)have been regarded as a promising candidate for commercial energy storage device due to their superior safety,low cost,and environmental benignity.Unfortunately,an age-old challenge of achieving both long electrode lifespan and qualified energy-storage property blocks their practical application.Herein,we develop an electrode-electrolyte integrated optimization strategy to fulfill the real-life device requirements.Electrode optimization simultaneously regulates the nanomorphology and surface chemistry of the tungsten oxide anode,resulting in superior electrochemical performance given by an ideal“bird-nest”structure with optimal oxygen vacancy status;the anodes interact with and are protected from dissolution and structural collapse by the rationally designed hybrid electrolyte with optimized pH and facilitated cation desorption behavior.Collaboratively,a record-breaking durability of no capacitive decay after 250000 cycles is achieved.On the basis of this integrated optimization,the first aqueous pouch SCs with real-life practicability were manufactured by a soft-package encapsulation technique,which can steadily power commercial 3 C products such as tablets and smartphones and maintain safely working against extreme conditions.This work demonstrates the possibility of using aqueous energy storage devices with enhanced safety and lower cost to replace the commercial organic counterparts for wide range of daily applications.展开更多
New Jersey Governor James E.McGreevey today joined Port AuthorityChairman Anthony R.Coscia at the Eliza-beth-Port Authority Marine Terminal tohail a record-breaking year for the Port ofNew York and New Jersey as he an...New Jersey Governor James E.McGreevey today joined Port AuthorityChairman Anthony R.Coscia at the Eliza-beth-Port Authority Marine Terminal tohail a record-breaking year for the Port ofNew York and New Jersey as he announcedthe 2003 international trade statistics.Thelargest port on the east coast of NorthAmerica saw its container volumes growby more than eight percent and the value oftotal cargo in the port increased nearly 12percent.展开更多
In early September 2023,Hong Kong was severely impacted by the ferocious strike of Super Typhoon Saola on 1–2 September and the phenomenal rainstorm on 7–8 September triggered by the remnant of TC Haikui.Given the r...In early September 2023,Hong Kong was severely impacted by the ferocious strike of Super Typhoon Saola on 1–2 September and the phenomenal rainstorm on 7–8 September triggered by the remnant of TC Haikui.Given the rarity of these two successive extreme weather events which wreaked havoc in Hong Kong within 10 days,impact assessment on the damage and economic loss in Hong Kong due to these two extreme events was conducted.Utilizing available data from government reports,media,surveys,and insurance claims,the direct economic losses incurred by Super Typhoon Saola on 1–2 September and the record-breaking rainstorm on 7–8 September were estimated to be around HK$0.48 billion and HK$1.74 billion respectively.Moreover,the impacts of Saola and the record-breaking rainstorm in September 2023 are compared with other super typhoons and Black Rainstorm events in Hong Kong mainly in the last decade for reference.It is noted that,when compared with the Super Typhoons Hato and Mangkhut which also necessitated the issuance of Hurricane Signal No.10 in Hong Kong respectively in 2017 and 2018,the overall impact of Saola in 2023 was less than those of Hato and Mangkhut.In terms of rainstorm events,the impact of the Black Rainstorm event on 7–8 September 2023 was significantly higher than those of the Black Rainstorm events in March 2014 and June 2020.The possible attributing factors related to the differences in the impact of these super typhoon and rainstorm events were also briefly discussed.展开更多
The daily maximum/minimum temperature data at 740 stations in China from 1960 to 2005 were ana-lyzed to reveal the statistical characteristics of record-breaking（RB）daily extreme temperature events in the past 46 yr...The daily maximum/minimum temperature data at 740 stations in China from 1960 to 2005 were ana-lyzed to reveal the statistical characteristics of record-breaking（RB）daily extreme temperature events in the past 46 yr.It is verified that the observational daily extreme temperatures obey the Gaussian distribution. The expected values of RB extreme temperatures were obtained based on both the Gaussian distribution model and the initial condition of observed historical RB high/low temperature events after tedious the-oretical derivation.The results were then compared with those obtained by the iteration computation of the pure theoretical model.The comparison suggests that the results from the former are more consistent with the observations than those from the latter.Based on the above analyses,prediction of future possible RB high/low temperature events is made,and the spatial distributions of maximum/minimum theoretical values of their intensities are also given.It is indicated that the change amplitudes of future extreme temperatures differ evidently from place to place,showing a remarkable regional feature：the future extremely high temperature events will have a strong rising intensity in Southwest China,and a relatively weak rising intensity in western China;while the largest decrease of the future extremely low temperature events will appear in Northeast China and the north of Northwest China,and the decrease will be maintained relatively stable in space in Central China and Southwest China,in comparison with the historical low temperature pattern.Features in the occurrence time of the future RB temperature events are also illustrated.展开更多
In May-June 2022,South China(SC)experienced record-breaking rainfall,resulting in severe flooding and significant socioeconomic impacts,which posed a challenge to operational seasonal forecasting efforts.Notably,most ...In May-June 2022,South China(SC)experienced record-breaking rainfall,resulting in severe flooding and significant socioeconomic impacts,which posed a challenge to operational seasonal forecasting efforts.Notably,most forecast systems and their multi-model ensemble severely underestimated the SC floods in early summer 2022,forecasting decreased rainfall instead.Observational analysis links the 2022 SC floods to an anomalous low-level anticyclone over the western North Pacific and a zonal wave train across the mid-to-high latitudes of Eurasia.The forecast systems,however,generally missed the Eurasian zonal wave train and predicted an anomalous low-level cyclone over the western North Pacific,which would typically result in decreased rainfall over SC.Further analysis suggests that the La Niña-related cold sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in the tropical Pacific,accurately predicted by the forecast systems,contributed to the modeled anomalous cyclone over the western North Pacific.Excessive reliance on the La Niña-related Pacific SST anomalies appears to be the primary driver of the inaccurate prediction of the 2022 SC floods.The SST bias in the North Atlantic also contributed,albeit to a lesser extent,by influencing the anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone and the Eurasian mid-to-high latitude wave train.Additionally,certain ensemble members from the forecast systems did predict increased rainfall over SC in their forecasts,yet exhibited a spurious precipitation mechanism inconsistent with observations,primarily due to distinguished differences in the atmospheric circulation patterns over SC and Eurasian mid-to-high latitudes.This implies that factors beyond the Pacific La Niña might have played a more significant role in sustaining the 2022 SC floods.The study emphasizes the need to improve seasonal forecast systems,particularly in their representation of atmospheric internal variability and external forcing beyond the Pacific La Niña/El Niño.展开更多
In 2023,the majority of the Earth witnessed its warmest boreal summer and autumn since 1850.Whether 2023 will indeed turn out to be the warmest year on record and what caused the astonishingly large margin of warming ...In 2023,the majority of the Earth witnessed its warmest boreal summer and autumn since 1850.Whether 2023 will indeed turn out to be the warmest year on record and what caused the astonishingly large margin of warming has become one of the hottest topics in the scientific community and is closely connected to the future development of human society.We analyzed the monthly varying global mean surface temperature(GMST)in 2023 and found that the globe,the land,and the oceans in 2023 all exhibit extraordinary warming,which is distinct from any previous year in recorded history.Based on the GMST statistical ensemble prediction model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,the GMST in 2023 is predicted to be 1.41℃±0.07℃,which will certainly surpass that in 2016 as the warmest year since 1850,and is approaching the 1.5℃ global warming threshold.Compared to 2022,the GMST in 2023 will increase by 0.24℃,with 88%of the increment contributed by the annual variability as mostly affected by El Niño.Moreover,the multidecadal variability related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)in 2023 also provided an important warming background for sparking the GMST rise.As a result,the GMST in 2023 is projected to be 1.15℃±0.07℃,with only a 0.02℃ increment,if the effects of natural variability—including El Niño and the AMO—are eliminated and only the global warming trend is considered.展开更多
基金support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41975105 and 42375022)。
文摘According to the latest version(version 2.0) of the China global Merged Surface Temperature(CMST2.0) dataset, the global mean surface temperature(GMST) in the first half of 2023 reached its third warmest value since the period of instrumental observation began, being only slightly lower than the values recorded in 2016 and 2020, and historically record-breaking GMST emerged from May to July 2023. Further analysis also indicates that if the surface temperature in the last five months of 2023 approaches the average level of the past five years, the annual average surface temperature anomaly in 2023 of approximately 1.26°C will break the previous highest surface temperature, which was recorded in 2016of approximately 1.25°C(both values relative to the global pre-industrialization period, i.e., the average value from 1850 to1900). With El Ni?o triggering a record-breaking hottest July, record-breaking average annual temperatures will most likely become a reality in 2023.
基金This work was jointly supported by National Key R&D Program of China(2018YFC1505806)Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research(2020B0301030004)+1 种基金National Science Foundation of China(41875100)the China Meteorological Administration Innovation and Development Project(CXFZ2021Z033),and China Three Gorges Corporation(Grant No.0704181).
文摘The record-breaking mei-yu in the Yangtze-Huaihe River valley(YHRV)in 2020 was characterized by an early onset,a delayed retreat,a long duration,a wide meridional rainbelt,abundant precipitation,and frequent heavy rainstorm processes.It is noted that the East Asian monsoon circulation system presented a significant quasi-biweekly oscillation(QBWO)during the mei-yu season of 2020 that was associated with the onset and retreat of mei-yu,a northward shift and stagnation of the rainbelt,and the occurrence and persistence of heavy rainstorm processes.Correspondingly,during the mei-yu season,the monsoon circulation subsystems,including the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH),the upper-level East Asian westerly jet,and the low-level southwesterly jet,experienced periodic oscillations linked with the QBWO.Most notably,the repeated establishment of a large southerly center,with relatively stable latitude,led to moisture convergence and ascent which was observed to develop repeatedly.This was accompanied by a long-term duration of the mei-yu rainfall in the YHRV and frequent occurrences of rainstorm processes.Moreover,two blocking highs were present in the middle to high latitudes over Eurasia,and a trough along the East Asian coast was also active,which allowed cold air intrusions to move southward through the northwestern and/or northeastern paths.The cold air frequently merged with the warm and moist air from the low latitudes resulting in low-level convergence over the YHRV.The persistent warming in the tropical Indian Ocean is found to be an important external contributor to an EAP/PJ-like teleconnection pattern over East Asia along with an intensified and southerly displaced WPSH,which was observed to be favorable for excessive rainfall over YHRV.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant 2012CB955401)the"Strategic Priority Research Program"of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant XDB03020600)
文摘In this paper,a hindcast study of the record-breaking rainfall event occurring in Beijing on 21July 2012,is conducted by using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model forced by National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)Global Forecasting System(GFS)outputs,paired with an investigation of the impact of topography in this region.The results indicate that WRF can reasonably predict the salient features of orographic precipitation;the 24-h rainfall amount and spatial distribution compare reasonably well with the observations.The hindcast simulation also indicates that rainfall events can be predicted approximately 36 h ahead.When the topography is removed,the spatial distribution of rainfall changes remarkably,suggesting the importance of the topography in determining rainfall structure.These results also indicate that prediction of such city-scale heavy rainfall events would benefit from a high-resolution prediction system.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.52071171,52202248 and 22209064)Liaoning Revitalization Talents Program—Pan Deng Scholars(XLYC1802005)+9 种基金Liaoning Bai Qian Wan Talents Program(LNBQW2018B0048)Key Project of Scientific Research of the Education Department of Liaoning Province(LZD201902)Shenyang Science and Technology Project(21-108-9-04)Australian Research Council(ARC)through Future Fel owship(FT210100298,FT210100806)Discovery Project(DP220100603)Linkage Project(LP210100467,LP210200504,and LP210200345)Industrial Transformation Training Centre(IC180100005)schemes,CSIRO Energy Centre and Kick-Start ProjectStudy Melbourne Research Partnerships program has been made possible by funding from the Victorian Government through Study MelbourneShiyanjia Lab(www.shiyanjia.com)for the support of the XPS testsupport from the University of Calgary’s Canada First Research Excel ence Fund program,the Global Research Initiative for Sustainable Low-Carbon Unconventional Energy
文摘Aqueous supercapacitors(SCs)have been regarded as a promising candidate for commercial energy storage device due to their superior safety,low cost,and environmental benignity.Unfortunately,an age-old challenge of achieving both long electrode lifespan and qualified energy-storage property blocks their practical application.Herein,we develop an electrode-electrolyte integrated optimization strategy to fulfill the real-life device requirements.Electrode optimization simultaneously regulates the nanomorphology and surface chemistry of the tungsten oxide anode,resulting in superior electrochemical performance given by an ideal“bird-nest”structure with optimal oxygen vacancy status;the anodes interact with and are protected from dissolution and structural collapse by the rationally designed hybrid electrolyte with optimized pH and facilitated cation desorption behavior.Collaboratively,a record-breaking durability of no capacitive decay after 250000 cycles is achieved.On the basis of this integrated optimization,the first aqueous pouch SCs with real-life practicability were manufactured by a soft-package encapsulation technique,which can steadily power commercial 3 C products such as tablets and smartphones and maintain safely working against extreme conditions.This work demonstrates the possibility of using aqueous energy storage devices with enhanced safety and lower cost to replace the commercial organic counterparts for wide range of daily applications.
文摘New Jersey Governor James E.McGreevey today joined Port AuthorityChairman Anthony R.Coscia at the Eliza-beth-Port Authority Marine Terminal tohail a record-breaking year for the Port ofNew York and New Jersey as he announcedthe 2003 international trade statistics.Thelargest port on the east coast of NorthAmerica saw its container volumes growby more than eight percent and the value oftotal cargo in the port increased nearly 12percent.
文摘In early September 2023,Hong Kong was severely impacted by the ferocious strike of Super Typhoon Saola on 1–2 September and the phenomenal rainstorm on 7–8 September triggered by the remnant of TC Haikui.Given the rarity of these two successive extreme weather events which wreaked havoc in Hong Kong within 10 days,impact assessment on the damage and economic loss in Hong Kong due to these two extreme events was conducted.Utilizing available data from government reports,media,surveys,and insurance claims,the direct economic losses incurred by Super Typhoon Saola on 1–2 September and the record-breaking rainstorm on 7–8 September were estimated to be around HK$0.48 billion and HK$1.74 billion respectively.Moreover,the impacts of Saola and the record-breaking rainstorm in September 2023 are compared with other super typhoons and Black Rainstorm events in Hong Kong mainly in the last decade for reference.It is noted that,when compared with the Super Typhoons Hato and Mangkhut which also necessitated the issuance of Hurricane Signal No.10 in Hong Kong respectively in 2017 and 2018,the overall impact of Saola in 2023 was less than those of Hato and Mangkhut.In terms of rainstorm events,the impact of the Black Rainstorm event on 7–8 September 2023 was significantly higher than those of the Black Rainstorm events in March 2014 and June 2020.The possible attributing factors related to the differences in the impact of these super typhoon and rainstorm events were also briefly discussed.
基金the National Science and Technology Support Program of China under Grant No.2007BAC29B01the National Basic Research Program of China under Grant No.2006CB400503+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China under GrantNo.40875040the Special Project for Public Welfare under Grant No.GYHY200806005
文摘The daily maximum/minimum temperature data at 740 stations in China from 1960 to 2005 were ana-lyzed to reveal the statistical characteristics of record-breaking（RB）daily extreme temperature events in the past 46 yr.It is verified that the observational daily extreme temperatures obey the Gaussian distribution. The expected values of RB extreme temperatures were obtained based on both the Gaussian distribution model and the initial condition of observed historical RB high/low temperature events after tedious the-oretical derivation.The results were then compared with those obtained by the iteration computation of the pure theoretical model.The comparison suggests that the results from the former are more consistent with the observations than those from the latter.Based on the above analyses,prediction of future possible RB high/low temperature events is made,and the spatial distributions of maximum/minimum theoretical values of their intensities are also given.It is indicated that the change amplitudes of future extreme temperatures differ evidently from place to place,showing a remarkable regional feature：the future extremely high temperature events will have a strong rising intensity in Southwest China,and a relatively weak rising intensity in western China;while the largest decrease of the future extremely low temperature events will appear in Northeast China and the north of Northwest China,and the decrease will be maintained relatively stable in space in Central China and Southwest China,in comparison with the historical low temperature pattern.Features in the occurrence time of the future RB temperature events are also illustrated.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U2142211,42375064,and 41975102)National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFC1506003)China Meteorological Administration Key Innovation Team Fund for Climate Prediction(CMA2023ZD03)。
文摘In May-June 2022,South China(SC)experienced record-breaking rainfall,resulting in severe flooding and significant socioeconomic impacts,which posed a challenge to operational seasonal forecasting efforts.Notably,most forecast systems and their multi-model ensemble severely underestimated the SC floods in early summer 2022,forecasting decreased rainfall instead.Observational analysis links the 2022 SC floods to an anomalous low-level anticyclone over the western North Pacific and a zonal wave train across the mid-to-high latitudes of Eurasia.The forecast systems,however,generally missed the Eurasian zonal wave train and predicted an anomalous low-level cyclone over the western North Pacific,which would typically result in decreased rainfall over SC.Further analysis suggests that the La Niña-related cold sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in the tropical Pacific,accurately predicted by the forecast systems,contributed to the modeled anomalous cyclone over the western North Pacific.Excessive reliance on the La Niña-related Pacific SST anomalies appears to be the primary driver of the inaccurate prediction of the 2022 SC floods.The SST bias in the North Atlantic also contributed,albeit to a lesser extent,by influencing the anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone and the Eurasian mid-to-high latitude wave train.Additionally,certain ensemble members from the forecast systems did predict increased rainfall over SC in their forecasts,yet exhibited a spurious precipitation mechanism inconsistent with observations,primarily due to distinguished differences in the atmospheric circulation patterns over SC and Eurasian mid-to-high latitudes.This implies that factors beyond the Pacific La Niña might have played a more significant role in sustaining the 2022 SC floods.The study emphasizes the need to improve seasonal forecast systems,particularly in their representation of atmospheric internal variability and external forcing beyond the Pacific La Niña/El Niño.
基金supported by the Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.ZDBS-LY-DQC010)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42175045).
文摘In 2023,the majority of the Earth witnessed its warmest boreal summer and autumn since 1850.Whether 2023 will indeed turn out to be the warmest year on record and what caused the astonishingly large margin of warming has become one of the hottest topics in the scientific community and is closely connected to the future development of human society.We analyzed the monthly varying global mean surface temperature(GMST)in 2023 and found that the globe,the land,and the oceans in 2023 all exhibit extraordinary warming,which is distinct from any previous year in recorded history.Based on the GMST statistical ensemble prediction model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,the GMST in 2023 is predicted to be 1.41℃±0.07℃,which will certainly surpass that in 2016 as the warmest year since 1850,and is approaching the 1.5℃ global warming threshold.Compared to 2022,the GMST in 2023 will increase by 0.24℃,with 88%of the increment contributed by the annual variability as mostly affected by El Niño.Moreover,the multidecadal variability related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)in 2023 also provided an important warming background for sparking the GMST rise.As a result,the GMST in 2023 is projected to be 1.15℃±0.07℃,with only a 0.02℃ increment,if the effects of natural variability—including El Niño and the AMO—are eliminated and only the global warming trend is considered.
