The dual random models about the life insurance and social pension insurance have received considerable attention in the recent articles on actuarial theory and applications. This paper discusses a general kind of inc...The dual random models about the life insurance and social pension insurance have received considerable attention in the recent articles on actuarial theory and applications. This paper discusses a general kind of increasing annuity based on its force of interest accumulation function as a general random process. The dual random model of the present value of the benefits of the increasing annuity has been set, and their moments have been calculated under certain conditions.展开更多
Detecting cyber attacks in networks connected to the Internet of Things(IoT)is of utmost importance because of the growing vulnerabilities in the smart environment.Conventional models,such as Naive Bayes and support v...Detecting cyber attacks in networks connected to the Internet of Things(IoT)is of utmost importance because of the growing vulnerabilities in the smart environment.Conventional models,such as Naive Bayes and support vector machine(SVM),as well as ensemble methods,such as Gradient Boosting and eXtreme gradient boosting(XGBoost),are often plagued by high computational costs,which makes it challenging for them to perform real-time detection.In this regard,we suggested an attack detection approach that integrates Visual Geometry Group 16(VGG16),Artificial Rabbits Optimizer(ARO),and Random Forest Model to increase detection accuracy and operational efficiency in Internet of Things(IoT)networks.In the suggested model,the extraction of features from malware pictures was accomplished with the help of VGG16.The prediction process is carried out by the random forest model using the extracted features from the VGG16.Additionally,ARO is used to improve the hyper-parameters of the random forest model of the random forest.With an accuracy of 96.36%,the suggested model outperforms the standard models in terms of accuracy,F1-score,precision,and recall.The comparative research highlights our strategy’s success,which improves performance while maintaining a lower computational cost.This method is ideal for real-time applications,but it is effective.展开更多
Random forest model is the mainstream research method used to accurately describe the distribution law and impact mechanism of regional population.We took Shijiazhuang as the research area,with comprehensive zoning ba...Random forest model is the mainstream research method used to accurately describe the distribution law and impact mechanism of regional population.We took Shijiazhuang as the research area,with comprehensive zoning based on endowments as the modeling unit,conducted stratified sampling on a hectare grid cell,and systematically carried out incremental selection experiments of population density impact factors,optimizing the population density random forest model throughout the process(zonal modeling,stratified sampling,factor selection,weighted output).The results are as follows:(1)Zonal modeling addresses the issue of confusion in population distribution laws caused by a single model.Sampling on a grid cell not only ensures the quality of training data by avoiding the modifiable areal unit problem(MAUP)but also attempts to mitigate the adverse effects of the ecological fallacy.Stratified sampling ensures the stability of population density label values(target variable)in the training sample.(2)Zonal selection experiments on population density impact factors help identify suitable combinations of factors,leading to a significant improvement in the goodness of fit(R^(2))of the zonal models.(3)Weighted combination output of the population density prediction dataset substantially enhances the model's robustness.(4)The population density dataset exhibits multi-scale superposition characteristics.On a large scale,the population density in plains is higher than that in mountainous areas,while on a small scale,urban areas have higher density compared to rural areas.The optimization scheme for the population density random forest model that we propose offers a unified technical framework for uncovering local population distribution law and the impact mechanisms.展开更多
The girder end restraint devices such as bearings and dampers on long span suspension bridge will deteriorate over time.However,it is difficult to achieve the quantitative assessment of the performance of the restrain...The girder end restraint devices such as bearings and dampers on long span suspension bridge will deteriorate over time.However,it is difficult to achieve the quantitative assessment of the performance of the restraint device through existing detection methods in actual inspections,making it difficult to obtain the impact of changes in the performance of the restraint device on the bridge structure.In this paper,a random vehicle load model is firstly established based on the WIM data of Jiangyin Bridge,and the displacement of girder end under the actual traffic flow is simulated by using finite element dynamic time history analysis.On this basis,according to the performance test data of the bearings and dampers,the performance degradation laws of the above two restraint devices are summarized,and the performance degradation process of the two restraint devices and the effects of different restraint parameters on the bridge structure are simulated.The results show that the performance degradation of the damper will significantly reduce the damping force at low speed,resulting in a significant increase in the cumulative displacement of the girder end;in the presence of longitudinal dampers,the increase in the friction coefficient caused by the deterioration of the bearing sliding plate has little effect on the cumulative displacement,but excessive wear of the bearing sliding plate adversely affects the structural dynamic performance.展开更多
In this paper, a model averaging method is proposed for varying-coefficient models with response missing at random by establishing a weight selection criterion based on cross-validation. Under certain regularity condi...In this paper, a model averaging method is proposed for varying-coefficient models with response missing at random by establishing a weight selection criterion based on cross-validation. Under certain regularity conditions, it is proved that the proposed method is asymptotically optimal in the sense of achieving the minimum squared error.展开更多
To improve the efficiency of air quality analysis and the accuracy of predictions, this paper proposes a composite method based on Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Random Forest (RF) models. In the theoretical section,...To improve the efficiency of air quality analysis and the accuracy of predictions, this paper proposes a composite method based on Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Random Forest (RF) models. In the theoretical section, the model introduction and estimation algorithms are provided. In the empirical analysis section, global air quality data from 2022 to 2024 are used, and the proposed method is applied. Specifically, principal component analysis (PCA) is first conducted, and then VAR and Random Forest methods are used for prediction on the reduced-dimensional data. The results show that the RMSE of the hybrid model is 45.27, significantly lower than the 49.11 of the VAR model alone, verifying its superiority. The stability and predictive performance of the model are effectively enhanced.展开更多
Current hyperelastic constitutive models of hydrogels face difficulties in capturing the stress-strain behaviors of hydrogels under extremely large deformation because the effect of non-affine deformation of the polym...Current hyperelastic constitutive models of hydrogels face difficulties in capturing the stress-strain behaviors of hydrogels under extremely large deformation because the effect of non-affine deformation of the polymer network inside is ambiguous.In this work,we construct periodic random network(PRN)models for the effective polymer network in hydrogels and investigate the non-affine deformation of polymer chains intrinsically originates from the structural randomness from bottom up.The non-affine deformation in PRN models is manifested as the actual stretch of polymer chains randomly deviated from the chain stretch predicted by affine assumption,and quantified by a non-affine ratio of each polymer chain.It is found that the non-affine ratios of polymer chains are closely related to bulk deformation state,chain orientation,and initial chain elongation.By fitting the non-affine ratio of polymer chains in all PRN models,we propose a non-affine constitutive model for the hydrogel polymer network based on micro-sphere model.The stress-strain curves of the proposed constitutive models under uniaxial tension condition agree with the simulation results of different PRN models of hydrogels very well.展开更多
The global clustering of inventive talent shapes innovation capacity and drives economic growth.For China,this process is especially crucial in sustaining its development momentum.This paper draws on data from the EPO...The global clustering of inventive talent shapes innovation capacity and drives economic growth.For China,this process is especially crucial in sustaining its development momentum.This paper draws on data from the EPO Worldwide Patent Statistical Database(PATSTAT)to extract global inventive talent mobility information and analyzes the spatial structural evolution of the global inventive talent flow network.The study finds that this network is undergoing a multi-polar transformation,characterized by the rising importance of a few central countries-such as the United States,Germany,and China-and the increasing marginalization of many peripheral countries.In response to this typical phenomenon,the paper constructs an endogenous migration model and conducts empirical testing using the Temporal Exponential Random Graph Model(TERGM).The results reveal several endogenous mechanisms driving global inventive talent flows,including reciprocity,path dependence,convergence effects,transitivity,and cyclic structures,all of which contribute to the network’s multi-polar trend.In addition,differences in regional industrial structures significantly influence talent mobility choices and are a decisive factor in the formation of poles within the multi-polar landscape.Based on these findings,it is suggested that efforts be made to foster two-way channels for talent exchange between China and other global innovation hubs,in order to enhance international collaboration and knowledge flow.We should aim to reduce the migration costs and institutional barriers faced by R&D personnel,thereby encouraging greater mobility of high-skilled talent.Furthermore,the government is advised to strategically leverage regional strengths in high-tech industries as a lever to capture competitive advantages in emerging technologies and products,ultimately strengthening the country’s position in the global innovation landscape.展开更多
Adaptive fractional polynomial modeling of general correlated outcomes is formulated to address nonlinearity in means, variances/dispersions, and correlations. Means and variances/dispersions are modeled using general...Adaptive fractional polynomial modeling of general correlated outcomes is formulated to address nonlinearity in means, variances/dispersions, and correlations. Means and variances/dispersions are modeled using generalized linear models in fixed effects/coefficients. Correlations are modeled using random effects/coefficients. Nonlinearity is addressed using power transforms of primary (untransformed) predictors. Parameter estimation is based on extended linear mixed modeling generalizing both generalized estimating equations and linear mixed modeling. Models are evaluated using likelihood cross-validation (LCV) scores and are generated adaptively using a heuristic search controlled by LCV scores. Cases covered include linear, Poisson, logistic, exponential, and discrete regression of correlated continuous, count/rate, dichotomous, positive continuous, and discrete numeric outcomes treated as normally, Poisson, Bernoulli, exponentially, and discrete numerically distributed, respectively. Example analyses are also generated for these five cases to compare adaptive random effects/coefficients modeling of correlated outcomes to previously developed adaptive modeling based on directly specified covariance structures. Adaptive random effects/coefficients modeling substantially outperforms direct covariance modeling in the linear, exponential, and discrete regression example analyses. It generates equivalent results in the logistic regression example analyses and it is substantially outperformed in the Poisson regression case. Random effects/coefficients modeling of correlated outcomes can provide substantial improvements in model selection compared to directly specified covariance modeling. However, directly specified covariance modeling can generate competitive or substantially better results in some cases while usually requiring less computation time.展开更多
Bayes decision rule of variance components for one-way random effects model is derived and empirical Bayes (EB) decision rules are constructed by kernel estimation method. Under suitable conditions, it is shown that t...Bayes decision rule of variance components for one-way random effects model is derived and empirical Bayes (EB) decision rules are constructed by kernel estimation method. Under suitable conditions, it is shown that the proposed EB decision rules are asymptotically optimal with convergence rates near O(n-1/2). Finally, an example concerning the main result is given.展开更多
In this paper, some experimental studies on the impact of effluent from an exhaust tower of an underground tunnel with special construction are reported. By measuring the flow field downstream of the tower in NJU mete...In this paper, some experimental studies on the impact of effluent from an exhaust tower of an underground tunnel with special construction are reported. By measuring the flow field downstream of the tower in NJU meteorological wind tunnel, some flow characteristics in the make area were established. Based on these, an advanced random\|walk dispersion model was set up and applied successfully to the simulation of dispersion in the wake area. The modelling results were in accordance with wind tunnel measurements. The computed maximum of ground surface concentration in the building case was a factor of 3-4 higher than that in the flat case and appeared much closer to the source. The simulation indicated that random walk modelling is an effective and practical tool for the wake stream impact assessment.展开更多
In this article, a law of iterated logarithm for the maximum likelihood estimator in a random censoring model with incomplete information under certain regular conditions is obtained.
In this papert we give an approach for detecting one or more outliers inrandomized linear model.The likelihood ratio test statistic and its distributions underthe null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis are giv...In this papert we give an approach for detecting one or more outliers inrandomized linear model.The likelihood ratio test statistic and its distributions underthe null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis are given. Furthermore,the robustnessof the test statistic in a certain sense is proved. Finally,the optimality properties of thetest are derived.展开更多
Potential of the Random Forest Model on mapping of different desertification processes was studied in Muttuma watershed of mid-Murrumbidgee river region of New South Wales,Australia.Desertification vulnerability index...Potential of the Random Forest Model on mapping of different desertification processes was studied in Muttuma watershed of mid-Murrumbidgee river region of New South Wales,Australia.Desertification vulnerability index was developed using climate,terrain,vegetation,soil and land quality indices to identify environmentally sensitive areas for desertification.Random Forest Model(RFM)was used to predict the different desertification processes such as soil erosion,salinization and waterlogging in the watershed and the information needed to train classification algorithms was obtained from satellite imagery interpretation and ground truth data.Climatic factors(evaporation,rainfall,temperature),terrain factors(aspect,slope,slope length,steepness,and wetness index),soil properties(pH,organic carbon,clay and sand content)and vulnerability indices were used as an explanatory variable.Classification accuracy and kappa index were calculated for training and testing datasets.We recorded an overall accuracy rate of 87.7%and 72.1%for training and testing sites,respectively.We found larger discrepancies between overall accuracy rate and kappa index for testing datasets(72.2%and 27.5%,respectively)suggesting that all the classes are not predicted well.The prediction of soil erosion and no desertification process was good and poor for salinization and water-logging process.Overall,the results observed give a new idea of using the knowledge of desertification process in training areas that can be used to predict the desertification processes at unvisited areas.展开更多
To reduce the computation cost of a combined probabilistic graphical model and a deep neural network in semantic segmentation, the local region condition random field (LRCRF) model is investigated which selectively ap...To reduce the computation cost of a combined probabilistic graphical model and a deep neural network in semantic segmentation, the local region condition random field (LRCRF) model is investigated which selectively applies the condition random field (CRF) to the most active region in the image. The full convolutional network structure is optimized with the ResNet-18 structure and dilated convolution to expand the receptive field. The tracking networks are also improved based on SiameseFC by considering the frame relations in consecutive-frame traffic scene maps. Moreover, the segmentation results of the greyscale input data sets are more stable and effective than using the RGB images for deep neural network feature extraction. The experimental results show that the proposed method takes advantage of the image features directly and achieves good real-time performance and high segmentation accuracy.展开更多
Species evolution is essentially a random process of interaction between biological populations and their environ- ments. As a result, some physical parameters in evolution models are subject to statistical fluctuatio...Species evolution is essentially a random process of interaction between biological populations and their environ- ments. As a result, some physical parameters in evolution models are subject to statistical fluctuations. In this work, two important parameters in the Eigen model, the fitness and mutation rate, are treated as Gaassian dis- tributed random variables simultaneously to examine the property of the error threshold. Numerical simulation results show that the error threshold in the fully random model appears as a crossover region instead of a phase transition point, and ＆s the fluctuation strength increases the crossover region becomes smoother and smoother. Furthermore, it is shown that the randomization of the mutation rate plays a dominant role in changing the error threshold in the fully random model, which is consistent with the existing experimental data. The implication of the threshold change due to the randomization for antiviral strategies is discussed.展开更多
Recently, random graphs in which vertices are characterized by hidden variables controlling the establishment of edges between pairs of vertices have attracted much attention. This paper presents a specific realizatio...Recently, random graphs in which vertices are characterized by hidden variables controlling the establishment of edges between pairs of vertices have attracted much attention. This paper presents a specific realization of a class of random network models in which the connection probability between two vertices （i, j） is a specific function of degrees ki and kj. In the framework of the configuration model of random graphsp we find the analytical expressions for the degree correlation and clustering as a function of the variance of the desired degree distribution. The obtained expressions are checked by means of numerical simulations. Possible applications of our model are discussed.展开更多
In the hierarchical random effect linear model, the Bayes estimator of random parameter are not only dependent on specific prior distribution but also it is difficult to calculate in most cases. This paper derives the...In the hierarchical random effect linear model, the Bayes estimator of random parameter are not only dependent on specific prior distribution but also it is difficult to calculate in most cases. This paper derives the distributed-free optimal linear estimator of random parameters in the model by means of the credibility theory method. The estimators the authors derive can be applied in more extensive practical scenarios since they are only dependent on the first two moments of prior parameter rather than on specific prior distribution. Finally, the results are compared with some classical models and a numerical example is given to show the effectiveness of the estimators.展开更多
文摘The dual random models about the life insurance and social pension insurance have received considerable attention in the recent articles on actuarial theory and applications. This paper discusses a general kind of increasing annuity based on its force of interest accumulation function as a general random process. The dual random model of the present value of the benefits of the increasing annuity has been set, and their moments have been calculated under certain conditions.
基金funded by Institutional Fund Projects under grant no.(IFPDP-261-22)。
文摘Detecting cyber attacks in networks connected to the Internet of Things(IoT)is of utmost importance because of the growing vulnerabilities in the smart environment.Conventional models,such as Naive Bayes and support vector machine(SVM),as well as ensemble methods,such as Gradient Boosting and eXtreme gradient boosting(XGBoost),are often plagued by high computational costs,which makes it challenging for them to perform real-time detection.In this regard,we suggested an attack detection approach that integrates Visual Geometry Group 16(VGG16),Artificial Rabbits Optimizer(ARO),and Random Forest Model to increase detection accuracy and operational efficiency in Internet of Things(IoT)networks.In the suggested model,the extraction of features from malware pictures was accomplished with the help of VGG16.The prediction process is carried out by the random forest model using the extracted features from the VGG16.Additionally,ARO is used to improve the hyper-parameters of the random forest model of the random forest.With an accuracy of 96.36%,the suggested model outperforms the standard models in terms of accuracy,F1-score,precision,and recall.The comparative research highlights our strategy’s success,which improves performance while maintaining a lower computational cost.This method is ideal for real-time applications,but it is effective.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42071167,No.42201197,No.40871073The Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program,No.2019QZKK0406Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province,No.D2007000272。
文摘Random forest model is the mainstream research method used to accurately describe the distribution law and impact mechanism of regional population.We took Shijiazhuang as the research area,with comprehensive zoning based on endowments as the modeling unit,conducted stratified sampling on a hectare grid cell,and systematically carried out incremental selection experiments of population density impact factors,optimizing the population density random forest model throughout the process(zonal modeling,stratified sampling,factor selection,weighted output).The results are as follows:(1)Zonal modeling addresses the issue of confusion in population distribution laws caused by a single model.Sampling on a grid cell not only ensures the quality of training data by avoiding the modifiable areal unit problem(MAUP)but also attempts to mitigate the adverse effects of the ecological fallacy.Stratified sampling ensures the stability of population density label values(target variable)in the training sample.(2)Zonal selection experiments on population density impact factors help identify suitable combinations of factors,leading to a significant improvement in the goodness of fit(R^(2))of the zonal models.(3)Weighted combination output of the population density prediction dataset substantially enhances the model's robustness.(4)The population density dataset exhibits multi-scale superposition characteristics.On a large scale,the population density in plains is higher than that in mountainous areas,while on a small scale,urban areas have higher density compared to rural areas.The optimization scheme for the population density random forest model that we propose offers a unified technical framework for uncovering local population distribution law and the impact mechanisms.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2022YFB3706704)the Academician Special Science Research Project of CCCC(No.YSZX-03-2022-01-B).
文摘The girder end restraint devices such as bearings and dampers on long span suspension bridge will deteriorate over time.However,it is difficult to achieve the quantitative assessment of the performance of the restraint device through existing detection methods in actual inspections,making it difficult to obtain the impact of changes in the performance of the restraint device on the bridge structure.In this paper,a random vehicle load model is firstly established based on the WIM data of Jiangyin Bridge,and the displacement of girder end under the actual traffic flow is simulated by using finite element dynamic time history analysis.On this basis,according to the performance test data of the bearings and dampers,the performance degradation laws of the above two restraint devices are summarized,and the performance degradation process of the two restraint devices and the effects of different restraint parameters on the bridge structure are simulated.The results show that the performance degradation of the damper will significantly reduce the damping force at low speed,resulting in a significant increase in the cumulative displacement of the girder end;in the presence of longitudinal dampers,the increase in the friction coefficient caused by the deterioration of the bearing sliding plate has little effect on the cumulative displacement,but excessive wear of the bearing sliding plate adversely affects the structural dynamic performance.
文摘In this paper, a model averaging method is proposed for varying-coefficient models with response missing at random by establishing a weight selection criterion based on cross-validation. Under certain regularity conditions, it is proved that the proposed method is asymptotically optimal in the sense of achieving the minimum squared error.
文摘To improve the efficiency of air quality analysis and the accuracy of predictions, this paper proposes a composite method based on Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Random Forest (RF) models. In the theoretical section, the model introduction and estimation algorithms are provided. In the empirical analysis section, global air quality data from 2022 to 2024 are used, and the proposed method is applied. Specifically, principal component analysis (PCA) is first conducted, and then VAR and Random Forest methods are used for prediction on the reduced-dimensional data. The results show that the RMSE of the hybrid model is 45.27, significantly lower than the 49.11 of the VAR model alone, verifying its superiority. The stability and predictive performance of the model are effectively enhanced.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.12202339 and 12172273)Xi’an Jiaotong University Tang Scholar.
文摘Current hyperelastic constitutive models of hydrogels face difficulties in capturing the stress-strain behaviors of hydrogels under extremely large deformation because the effect of non-affine deformation of the polymer network inside is ambiguous.In this work,we construct periodic random network(PRN)models for the effective polymer network in hydrogels and investigate the non-affine deformation of polymer chains intrinsically originates from the structural randomness from bottom up.The non-affine deformation in PRN models is manifested as the actual stretch of polymer chains randomly deviated from the chain stretch predicted by affine assumption,and quantified by a non-affine ratio of each polymer chain.It is found that the non-affine ratios of polymer chains are closely related to bulk deformation state,chain orientation,and initial chain elongation.By fitting the non-affine ratio of polymer chains in all PRN models,we propose a non-affine constitutive model for the hydrogel polymer network based on micro-sphere model.The stress-strain curves of the proposed constitutive models under uniaxial tension condition agree with the simulation results of different PRN models of hydrogels very well.
基金supported by the Major Project of the National Social Science Fund of China,titled“Design Path Selection for the Mechanism of New and Old Growth Driver Conversion”(Grant No.18ZDA077)by the Joint Special Major Research Project of the Yangtze River Delta Economics and Social Development Research Center at Nanjing University and the Collaborative Innovation Center for China Economy(CICCE),titled“Practicing Innovation in China’s Development Economics for the Yangtze River Delta:From Industrial Clusters to Technological Clusters”(Grant No.CYD2022006).
文摘The global clustering of inventive talent shapes innovation capacity and drives economic growth.For China,this process is especially crucial in sustaining its development momentum.This paper draws on data from the EPO Worldwide Patent Statistical Database(PATSTAT)to extract global inventive talent mobility information and analyzes the spatial structural evolution of the global inventive talent flow network.The study finds that this network is undergoing a multi-polar transformation,characterized by the rising importance of a few central countries-such as the United States,Germany,and China-and the increasing marginalization of many peripheral countries.In response to this typical phenomenon,the paper constructs an endogenous migration model and conducts empirical testing using the Temporal Exponential Random Graph Model(TERGM).The results reveal several endogenous mechanisms driving global inventive talent flows,including reciprocity,path dependence,convergence effects,transitivity,and cyclic structures,all of which contribute to the network’s multi-polar trend.In addition,differences in regional industrial structures significantly influence talent mobility choices and are a decisive factor in the formation of poles within the multi-polar landscape.Based on these findings,it is suggested that efforts be made to foster two-way channels for talent exchange between China and other global innovation hubs,in order to enhance international collaboration and knowledge flow.We should aim to reduce the migration costs and institutional barriers faced by R&D personnel,thereby encouraging greater mobility of high-skilled talent.Furthermore,the government is advised to strategically leverage regional strengths in high-tech industries as a lever to capture competitive advantages in emerging technologies and products,ultimately strengthening the country’s position in the global innovation landscape.
文摘Adaptive fractional polynomial modeling of general correlated outcomes is formulated to address nonlinearity in means, variances/dispersions, and correlations. Means and variances/dispersions are modeled using generalized linear models in fixed effects/coefficients. Correlations are modeled using random effects/coefficients. Nonlinearity is addressed using power transforms of primary (untransformed) predictors. Parameter estimation is based on extended linear mixed modeling generalizing both generalized estimating equations and linear mixed modeling. Models are evaluated using likelihood cross-validation (LCV) scores and are generated adaptively using a heuristic search controlled by LCV scores. Cases covered include linear, Poisson, logistic, exponential, and discrete regression of correlated continuous, count/rate, dichotomous, positive continuous, and discrete numeric outcomes treated as normally, Poisson, Bernoulli, exponentially, and discrete numerically distributed, respectively. Example analyses are also generated for these five cases to compare adaptive random effects/coefficients modeling of correlated outcomes to previously developed adaptive modeling based on directly specified covariance structures. Adaptive random effects/coefficients modeling substantially outperforms direct covariance modeling in the linear, exponential, and discrete regression example analyses. It generates equivalent results in the logistic regression example analyses and it is substantially outperformed in the Poisson regression case. Random effects/coefficients modeling of correlated outcomes can provide substantial improvements in model selection compared to directly specified covariance modeling. However, directly specified covariance modeling can generate competitive or substantially better results in some cases while usually requiring less computation time.
基金The project is partly supported by NSFC (19971085)the Doctoral Program Foundation of the Institute of High Education and the Special Foundation of Chinese Academy of Sciences.
文摘Bayes decision rule of variance components for one-way random effects model is derived and empirical Bayes (EB) decision rules are constructed by kernel estimation method. Under suitable conditions, it is shown that the proposed EB decision rules are asymptotically optimal with convergence rates near O(n-1/2). Finally, an example concerning the main result is given.
文摘In this paper, some experimental studies on the impact of effluent from an exhaust tower of an underground tunnel with special construction are reported. By measuring the flow field downstream of the tower in NJU meteorological wind tunnel, some flow characteristics in the make area were established. Based on these, an advanced random\|walk dispersion model was set up and applied successfully to the simulation of dispersion in the wake area. The modelling results were in accordance with wind tunnel measurements. The computed maximum of ground surface concentration in the building case was a factor of 3-4 higher than that in the flat case and appeared much closer to the source. The simulation indicated that random walk modelling is an effective and practical tool for the wake stream impact assessment.
文摘In this article, a law of iterated logarithm for the maximum likelihood estimator in a random censoring model with incomplete information under certain regular conditions is obtained.
文摘In this papert we give an approach for detecting one or more outliers inrandomized linear model.The likelihood ratio test statistic and its distributions underthe null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis are given. Furthermore,the robustnessof the test statistic in a certain sense is proved. Finally,the optimality properties of thetest are derived.
文摘Potential of the Random Forest Model on mapping of different desertification processes was studied in Muttuma watershed of mid-Murrumbidgee river region of New South Wales,Australia.Desertification vulnerability index was developed using climate,terrain,vegetation,soil and land quality indices to identify environmentally sensitive areas for desertification.Random Forest Model(RFM)was used to predict the different desertification processes such as soil erosion,salinization and waterlogging in the watershed and the information needed to train classification algorithms was obtained from satellite imagery interpretation and ground truth data.Climatic factors(evaporation,rainfall,temperature),terrain factors(aspect,slope,slope length,steepness,and wetness index),soil properties(pH,organic carbon,clay and sand content)and vulnerability indices were used as an explanatory variable.Classification accuracy and kappa index were calculated for training and testing datasets.We recorded an overall accuracy rate of 87.7%and 72.1%for training and testing sites,respectively.We found larger discrepancies between overall accuracy rate and kappa index for testing datasets(72.2%and 27.5%,respectively)suggesting that all the classes are not predicted well.The prediction of soil erosion and no desertification process was good and poor for salinization and water-logging process.Overall,the results observed give a new idea of using the knowledge of desertification process in training areas that can be used to predict the desertification processes at unvisited areas.
文摘To reduce the computation cost of a combined probabilistic graphical model and a deep neural network in semantic segmentation, the local region condition random field (LRCRF) model is investigated which selectively applies the condition random field (CRF) to the most active region in the image. The full convolutional network structure is optimized with the ResNet-18 structure and dilated convolution to expand the receptive field. The tracking networks are also improved based on SiameseFC by considering the frame relations in consecutive-frame traffic scene maps. Moreover, the segmentation results of the greyscale input data sets are more stable and effective than using the RGB images for deep neural network feature extraction. The experimental results show that the proposed method takes advantage of the image features directly and achieves good real-time performance and high segmentation accuracy.
基金Supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province under Grant No C2013202192
文摘Species evolution is essentially a random process of interaction between biological populations and their environ- ments. As a result, some physical parameters in evolution models are subject to statistical fluctuations. In this work, two important parameters in the Eigen model, the fitness and mutation rate, are treated as Gaassian dis- tributed random variables simultaneously to examine the property of the error threshold. Numerical simulation results show that the error threshold in the fully random model appears as a crossover region instead of a phase transition point, and ＆s the fluctuation strength increases the crossover region becomes smoother and smoother. Furthermore, it is shown that the randomization of the mutation rate plays a dominant role in changing the error threshold in the fully random model, which is consistent with the existing experimental data. The implication of the threshold change due to the randomization for antiviral strategies is discussed.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （Grant Nos 10375025 and 10275027） and the Cultivation Fund of the Key Scientific and Technical Innovation Project, Ministry of Education of China （Grant No 704035）
文摘Recently, random graphs in which vertices are characterized by hidden variables controlling the establishment of edges between pairs of vertices have attracted much attention. This paper presents a specific realization of a class of random network models in which the connection probability between two vertices （i, j） is a specific function of degrees ki and kj. In the framework of the configuration model of random graphsp we find the analytical expressions for the degree correlation and clustering as a function of the variance of the desired degree distribution. The obtained expressions are checked by means of numerical simulations. Possible applications of our model are discussed.
基金supported by the National Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.71361015,71340010,71371074the Jiangxi Provincial Natural Science Foundation under Grant No.20142BAB201013+2 种基金China Postdoctoral Science Foundation under Grant No.2013M540534China Postdoctoral Fund special Project under Grant No.2014T70615Jiangxi Postdoctoral Science Foundation under Grant No.2013KY53
文摘In the hierarchical random effect linear model, the Bayes estimator of random parameter are not only dependent on specific prior distribution but also it is difficult to calculate in most cases. This paper derives the distributed-free optimal linear estimator of random parameters in the model by means of the credibility theory method. The estimators the authors derive can be applied in more extensive practical scenarios since they are only dependent on the first two moments of prior parameter rather than on specific prior distribution. Finally, the results are compared with some classical models and a numerical example is given to show the effectiveness of the estimators.
