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Analysis on "96. 8" Heavy Rainstorm Process in Handan 被引量:1
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作者 ZHANG Yan-li YANG Xue-chuan +2 位作者 WANG Ga SONG Xiao-hui TIAN Xiu-xia 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 2012年第8期18-23,共6页
[ ObjEtive] The research aimed to analyze "96.8" heavy rainstorm process causing flood disaster in Handan. [ Method] Based on ac- tual situation data, satellite cloud data and NCEP reanalysis data in the first dekad... [ ObjEtive] The research aimed to analyze "96.8" heavy rainstorm process causing flood disaster in Handan. [ Method] Based on ac- tual situation data, satellite cloud data and NCEP reanalysis data in the first dekad of August in 1996, "96.8" heavy rainstorm process causing flood disaster in Handan was analyzed to understand occurrence reason of the flood disaster. [ Result] Two meso-scale convective cloud clusters which developed and went north in turn caused "96.8" heavy rainstorm in Handan. Typhoon and inverted trough were main weather systems induced flood disaster in Handan. In going north process of the low-level jet, due to blocking of the subtropical high, water vapor and energy accumulated in Handan, providing material basis for formation of the heavy rainstorm. Development and eastward movement of the short-wave trough at middle lati- tude and continuous invasion of the reflux weak cold air at the low layer were direct reason for triggering generation and development of the convec- tive cloud cluster, and further causing continuous rainstorm. Wet layer over the rainstorm zone was deep and thick. Meridional distribution of the wet zone was wider than latitudinal distribution. South China Sea and Bay of Bengal were water vapor sources for the rainstorm zone. In the whole rain- storm period, it was convergence at low layer and divergence at high layer in the rainstorm zone. It was positive vorticity at low layer and negative vorticity at high layer. Precipitation intensity changed as convergence and divergence. Rainstorm zone had strong ascending motion. As strengthe- ning and uplifting of the ascending motion strong center, strong precipitation also strengthened. Rainstorm center was near the biggest vertical ve- locity center. Strong precipitation changed as vertical ascending motion. [ Conclmion] The research provided scientific basis for disaster prevention and reduction and decision-making service. 展开更多
关键词 Heavy rainstorm No. 9608 strong typhoon process analysis Handan China
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Diabatic Processes and the Generation of the Low-Level Potential Vorticity Anomaly of a Rainstorm in Saudi Arabia 被引量:2
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作者 H. Abdel-Basset A. K. AL-Khalaf A. Albar 《Atmospheric and Climate Sciences》 2015年第3期275-291,共17页
The diabatic heating is calculated, using the thermodynamic equation in isobaric coordinates, of a heavy rainstorm that developed over Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on 25 November 2009. Throughout the period of study, the hori... The diabatic heating is calculated, using the thermodynamic equation in isobaric coordinates, of a heavy rainstorm that developed over Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on 25 November 2009. Throughout the period of study, the horizontal heat advection is the dominant term and the vertical advection term is opposed by the adiabatic one. The contribution of the local temperature term to the change in diabatic heating is relatively very minimal. The presence of the Red Sea and its adjacent mountains suggest that the diabatic heating in the lower atmosphere on that rainy day is primarily due to the latent heat released by convection. The dynamics of the studied case is also investigated in terms of isobaric Potential Vorticity (PV). The results show that the heating region coincides with the location of the low-level PV anomaly. Ertel’s Potential Vorticity (EPV) generation estimates imply that condensation supplies a large enough source of moisture to account for the presence of the low-level EPV anomaly. The low-level diabatic heating-produced PV assisted in amplifying the surface thermal wave early in the rainstorm development and in the upper-level wave during the later stages of the system’s growth. 展开更多
关键词 Potential VORTICITY Diabatic Heating Moisture processes Convection Heavy rainstorm SAUDI ARABIA
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Study on Numerical Simulation of the Impact of the Land-Surface Process in a Meiyu Front Rainstorm
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作者 LI Peng1,2 1.North China Power Engineering Co.,Ltd.of China Power Engineering Consultant Group Corporation,Beijing 100011,China 2.China Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 CAS 2011年第10期78-83,94,共7页
[Objective] The research aimed to carry out numerical simulation on impact of land-surface process in a Meiyu front rainstorm.[Method] Based on the meso-scale atmospheric non-hydrostatic model GRAPES-Meso which couple... [Objective] The research aimed to carry out numerical simulation on impact of land-surface process in a Meiyu front rainstorm.[Method] Based on the meso-scale atmospheric non-hydrostatic model GRAPES-Meso which coupled with NOAH land-surface module,a Meiyu front rainstorm in Jianghuai basin during 6-8 July,2005 was simulated.Via sensitivity tests with and without land-surface process,the impact of land-surface process on Meiyu front rainstorm was studied.[Result] GRAPES-Meso which coupled with NOAH land-surface process could simulate daily variation characteristics of Meiyu front precipitation and atmospheric low-level southwest jet.The land-surface process could improve the simulations of precipitation initiation,intensity and distribution.The improvement of precipitation initiation simulation was especially obvious,which solved spin-up problem of model to some extent.When the land-atmosphere interaction wasn’t considered,the precipitation initiation of model was very slow.The intensity evolution of simulated precipitation was different from actual situation.Moreover,it couldn’t simulate daily variation characteristics of precipitation and southwest jet.[Conclusion] The land-surface process had important impact on Meiyu process in Jianghuai basin. 展开更多
关键词 GRAPES-Meso rainstorm NOAH Land-surface process Numerical simulation China
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Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Rainstorm during the Crops Growth Period in North China Region
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作者 叶彩华 侯双双 +2 位作者 姜会飞 高静 田璐 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 CAS 2010年第4期92-96,101,共6页
By using the daily precipitation data from 1961 to 2005 in North China region,the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of rainstorm process occurrence and the rainstorm intensity during the crops growth p... By using the daily precipitation data from 1961 to 2005 in North China region,the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of rainstorm process occurrence and the rainstorm intensity during the crops growth period were studied.The results showed that the rainstorm intensity and the rainstorm process during the crops growth period in North China region both had the obvious annual fluctuations and era variation characteristics.Although the rainstorm and heavy rainstorm occurred in North China region every year,the annual variations were great,and the variation coefficients respectively reached 36.9% and 53.1%.The torrential rain occurred once in every 4-5 years,and the rainstorm process occurred once in every 11 years.Although the torrential rain and rainstorm process occurred in fewer years,their annual fluctuations were more obvious.The peak value zones of rainstorm intensity which was greater and the rainstorm process which occurred frequently were in the 1960s.After 1999,the rainstorm intensity and the rainstorm process were in low value zone of historical stage from 1961 to 2005.Moreover,the 1970s-1990s was between high value and low value,and the rainstorms in different intensities which weren't synchronous happened in the period.In addition,the spatial distribution of annual average rainstorm days presented the tendency which increased obviously from northwest to southeast in Northern China,and the variation coefficient of rainstorm days presented the tendency which increased gradually from southeast to northwest.Generally,the more the annual average rainstorm days are,the smaller the variation coefficient is,and vice versa.The statistics results also showed that precipitation in North China had obvious positive correlation relationship with the rainstorm days. 展开更多
关键词 Temporal and spatial characteristics Growth period rainstorm rainstorm process PRECIPITATION China
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西藏高山区中小流域设计洪水计算方法研究进展综述 被引量:1
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作者 康有 张波 +5 位作者 张洁 马顺刚 江玉吉 周毓彦 倪飞宇 刘金涛 《水电能源科学》 北大核心 2025年第1期15-19,共5页
西藏高山区中小流域为亚洲众多大河的源区,是国家水资源安全战略基地和水能资源接续基地。然而,本区下垫面情况异常复杂且监测难度大,属典型的无(缺)资料地区,设计洪水计算方法发展缓慢,为当地水利水电项目的规划设计、施工建设和运营... 西藏高山区中小流域为亚洲众多大河的源区,是国家水资源安全战略基地和水能资源接续基地。然而,本区下垫面情况异常复杂且监测难度大,属典型的无(缺)资料地区,设计洪水计算方法发展缓慢,为当地水利水电项目的规划设计、施工建设和运营管理等带来了较大的风险和挑战。受水文观测资料、高度复杂的下垫面情况及暴雨洪水形成机制等制约,现有方法(如推理公式、洪水频率分析及水文比拟等)在西藏高山区的适用性和有效性不足。为解决西藏中小流域设计洪水计算的难题,建议通过数学物理途径推导流域关键带结构信息(如地形—植被—土壤)与径流响应的解析关系,进而建立由下垫面信息反演设计参数及洪水设计值的理论方法,发展适合西藏中小流域地理水文特性的新型设计洪水计算方法。 展开更多
关键词 高山区流域 关键带结构 暴雨洪水过程 设计洪水计算 无资料流域水文预报
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秋汛期汉江上游大洪水事件特征及大尺度环流分析
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作者 王孝慈 孟英杰 +4 位作者 周耘逸 王海燕 王继竹 李波 祁海霞 《气象》 北大核心 2025年第7期817-829,共13页
为给秋汛期汉江上游大洪水天气预报提供参考,基于NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及常规气象水文实况观测资料,研究了2000年以来汉江上游秋汛期大洪水的水情、雨情特征、大尺度环流形势特征以及致洪暴雨成因,结果表明:进入21世纪秋汛期汉江流域洪... 为给秋汛期汉江上游大洪水天气预报提供参考,基于NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及常规气象水文实况观测资料,研究了2000年以来汉江上游秋汛期大洪水的水情、雨情特征、大尺度环流形势特征以及致洪暴雨成因,结果表明:进入21世纪秋汛期汉江流域洪水过程逐渐增多。致洪暴雨中心主要位于汉江上游南部和西部,即汉江流域南侧的米仓山、大巴山一带,安康水库以上的沿江河谷一带,及外方山南麓和伏牛山西南坡处的丹江河段。洪水峰值呈现单峰、双峰和多峰型。单峰型洪水过程持续时间最短,多峰型持续时间最长。从过程最大降水开始至洪峰出现,平均历时43 h,当起始入库流量超过4500 m 3·s^(-1)以上时,洪峰形成所需时长将大为缩短。从大尺度环流特征来看,汉江上游秋汛期降水偏多与欧亚中高纬阻塞系统强盛,西太洋副热带高压偏强、偏西,南亚高压及副热带西风急流偏北密切相关,高空辐散场大值区对应汉江上游所在区域,低层至高层的垂直运动增强,有利于致洪暴雨的发生。汉江上游秋汛期大洪水年源自阿拉伯海经由印度半岛和南海南部向北输送的水汽异常增多、西太平洋向西输送的水汽异常增多,为致洪暴雨的发生提供了异常充足的水汽供给。 展开更多
关键词 汉江秋汛 大洪水 致洪暴雨过程 丹江口水库 雨洪响应 环流异常
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秋汛期汉江上游致洪暴雨过程特征及天气概念模型分析
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作者 王孝慈 田刚 +5 位作者 孟英杰 王海燕 王继竹 周耘逸 徐卫立 祁海霞 《气象》 北大核心 2025年第2期207-220,共14页
利用NCAR/NCEP再分析资料及常规气象、水文观测资料,以秋汛期汉江上游15例编号洪水为研究对象,研究其洪水峰型特征及对应天气系统的演变规律,构建了致洪暴雨天气概念模型。结果表明:秋汛期汉江上游编号洪水单峰型过程最多,洪水过程线具... 利用NCAR/NCEP再分析资料及常规气象、水文观测资料,以秋汛期汉江上游15例编号洪水为研究对象,研究其洪水峰型特征及对应天气系统的演变规律,构建了致洪暴雨天气概念模型。结果表明:秋汛期汉江上游编号洪水单峰型过程最多,洪水过程线具有多样性;双峰型洪量大、洪峰高、涨水和退水较为迅速,形态多为尖瘦型;多峰型洪量最大,历时最长,峰值高低不等。单峰型洪水过程持续时间短,逐日面累计降水量起伏较大,成峰迅速,均为尖瘦型;双峰型过程持续时间一般不少于11 d,暴雨过程间隔较短,主峰和副峰差值不大,峰值在20000 m^(3)·s^(-1)以上;多峰型降水过程历时最长,阴雨天气可持续20 d以上,主峰峰值低于双峰型。从大尺度环流形势来看,中高纬地区:双峰型一般会出现3次较为明显的形势调整,环流经向度较大;多峰型环流形势调整较少,贝加尔湖南侧多为小槽小脊活动;单峰型无明显形势调整。中低纬地区:多峰型西太平洋副热带高压(以下简称副高)西进发展最为强盛,无台风或热带气旋活动;双峰型副高东西摆动频繁,常有热带气旋参与;单峰型多伴有大陆高压与海洋高压合并现象,少有台风或热带气旋活动。秋汛期汉江上游致洪暴雨天气概念模型主要有5类:高空槽-急流强迫型(A-Ⅰ)、高空槽-低涡切变型(A-Ⅲ)、副高外围-急流强迫型(B-Ⅰ)、副高外围-偏南气流弱强迫型(B-Ⅱ)和副高内部-低涡切变型(C-Ⅲ),其中,双峰型洪水多以A型为主、多峰型多以B型为主、单峰型A型和B型均有出现,且C型仅为单峰型所特有。此外,地面Ⅰ型和Ⅱ型也常与A-Ⅰ、A-Ⅲ、B-Ⅰ等组合出现,当3层天气系统配置较好时,致洪概率将会大幅度增加。 展开更多
关键词 汉江上游 编号洪水 洪水峰型 致洪暴雨过程 致洪天气概念模型
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青海东部暴雨过程特征及灾害风险评估方法研究
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作者 祁门紫仪 李万志 +3 位作者 王振海 余迪 段丽君 高成忠 《暴雨灾害》 2025年第5期612-620,共9页
为评估青海东部人口稠密区的暴雨灾害风险程度,提升暴雨灾害防御能力,基于1961—2021年青海东部25个国家气象观测站逐日降雨资料,首先采用百分位法确定单站极端日降水阈值,并分析暴雨过程特征,然后结合地理信息、遥感和社会经济数据,利... 为评估青海东部人口稠密区的暴雨灾害风险程度,提升暴雨灾害防御能力,基于1961—2021年青海东部25个国家气象观测站逐日降雨资料,首先采用百分位法确定单站极端日降水阈值,并分析暴雨过程特征,然后结合地理信息、遥感和社会经济数据,利用暴雨灾害风险评估技术、熵权法和专家打分法构建暴雨灾害风险评估模型,最后利用2022—2024年的暴雨过程实际灾情进行了检验。结果表明:(1)1961—2021年,青海东部暴雨过程次数、日最大降雨量、过程累计降雨量、过程持续时间均呈增加趋势;(2)青海东部地区暴雨过程强度指数总体呈增加趋势,并在东北部以及南部存在两个高值区;(3)青海东部暴雨灾害风险总体呈东北高、西部低的分布,其中西宁市、大通县、湟源县、湟中区、门源县、互助县、乐都区、民和县为暴雨灾害的高风险区;(4)检验结果显示,发生灾情的乡镇72.04%出现在高和较高风险区,仅13.17%出现在暴雨灾害风险较低和低风险区,暴雨灾害风险评估模型较好地评估青海东部暴雨天气致灾的情况。 展开更多
关键词 暴雨灾害 暴雨过程强度指数 致灾危险性 风险评估 青海东部
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缺管网资料地区城市源汇雨洪模型构建及应用
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作者 赵长森 李毛毛 +2 位作者 段震 张幼成 邵南方 《南水北调与水利科技(中英文)》 北大核心 2025年第4期942-955,共14页
为解决城市化进程加快和极端天气事件增多背景下传统城市雨洪模型在缺官网资料地区应用难的问题,构建不依赖地下管网的城市雨洪模型,耦合雷达高精度降水场,利用暴雨径流模型(LCM)下渗理论计算产流,根据源汇理论实现道路分水;计算管网系... 为解决城市化进程加快和极端天气事件增多背景下传统城市雨洪模型在缺官网资料地区应用难的问题,构建不依赖地下管网的城市雨洪模型,耦合雷达高精度降水场,利用暴雨径流模型(LCM)下渗理论计算产流,根据源汇理论实现道路分水;计算管网系数替代传统管网资料,并基于街道遥测水文站流量反馈率定参数。结果表明:模型在密度高、尺度小的武汉市青山区和密度低、尺度大的密云水库流域北京段的纳什效率系数(Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient,E_(NS))分别为0.70、0.63和均方根误差(root mean square error,E_(RMS))分别为0.05、11.38 m^(3)/(5 min);有效识别青山区潜在积涝点122处、密云水库流域北京段350处。模型突破了以往暴雨中心难捕捉、地下管网数据难获取的瓶颈,降低了多参数水文模型异参同效影响,更适合小尺度高密度城镇化单一下垫面雨洪模拟。本研究可有效支撑解决含黄河水源涵养区在内的小尺度、高密度地区城市雨洪问题,为缺资料地区暴雨科学防御调度提供有力支撑。 展开更多
关键词 城市雨洪 易积水点 过程模拟 缺管网资料地区 密云水库
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北部湾低涡时空统计特征及典型个例环流分析
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作者 刘璐 赖晟 +1 位作者 郑凤琴 苏玉雯 《气象研究与应用》 2025年第1期89-96,共8页
基于低压轨迹数据集和ERA5再分析资料,分析1979—2019年北部湾低涡的时空分布特征,并通过典型个例揭示其与暴雨的关系。结果表明,北部湾低涡以北部湾内生成型(占比46.5%)和西移型(占比40.2%)为主,5—9月为高发期,平均每年生成3.1个,平... 基于低压轨迹数据集和ERA5再分析资料,分析1979—2019年北部湾低涡的时空分布特征,并通过典型个例揭示其与暴雨的关系。结果表明,北部湾低涡以北部湾内生成型(占比46.5%)和西移型(占比40.2%)为主,5—9月为高发期,平均每年生成3.1个,平均生命期约4 d。2002年7月下旬,北部湾内生成型低涡通过“低层辐合-高层辐散”的垂直结构配置、水汽通量辐合及与副热带高压、冷空气的协同作用,导致桂南沿海出现持续性暴雨。低涡活动的垂直环流斜压性增强,驱动暴雨的持续增强,水汽输送以印度洋-阿拉伯海-孟加拉湾暖湿气流为主,为暴雨提供充足的水汽条件。 展开更多
关键词 北部湾低涡 暴雨过程 环流分析 气候变化
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太湖流域2421号台风“康妮”暴雨洪水特征分析
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作者 姜悦美 甘月云 刘敏 《中国防汛抗旱》 2025年第11期71-74,共4页
2024年临近入冬,太湖流域受2421号台风“康妮”影响,出现了较强风暴潮,地区河网在初始水位普遍较低的情况下多站出现超警戒超保证水位。基于台风“康妮”期间实测水雨情资料,开展了降雨水位过程及特征分析,结果表明:在“康妮”影响下,... 2024年临近入冬,太湖流域受2421号台风“康妮”影响,出现了较强风暴潮,地区河网在初始水位普遍较低的情况下多站出现超警戒超保证水位。基于台风“康妮”期间实测水雨情资料,开展了降雨水位过程及特征分析,结果表明:在“康妮”影响下,太湖流域累计降雨量大,位列近30 a汛后第3位;暴雨历时短,雨强大;河网水位涨幅大,运河沿途全线超警戒,流域南部、东部7站水位超保证,其中嘉兴站水位涨幅较大,黄浦江干流米市渡站最高潮位位列历史第4位。研究可为汛后水文情报预报和台风防御工作提供参考。 展开更多
关键词 太湖流域 台风“康妮” 暴雨 洪水 过程 特征分析
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CMA-BJ模式对“23·7”极端强降水过程预报性能分析
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作者 郭淳薇 仲跻芹 +8 位作者 赵秀娟 张亦洲 程思宇 张帅 薛一迪 李玉焕 卢冰 黄诚诚 徐敬 《气象学报》 北大核心 2025年第2期304-319,共16页
由于台风“杜苏芮”登陆北上减弱为低压后,受到“高压坝”阻挡停滞移动缓慢,2023年7月29日至8月2日,京津冀地区出现一次极端强降水过程,该次降水过程持续时间长、单站累计降水量突破历史极值,造成了严重的洪涝灾害。基于降水观测资料,... 由于台风“杜苏芮”登陆北上减弱为低压后,受到“高压坝”阻挡停滞移动缓慢,2023年7月29日至8月2日,京津冀地区出现一次极端强降水过程,该次降水过程持续时间长、单站累计降水量突破历史极值,造成了严重的洪涝灾害。基于降水观测资料,全面评估了华北中尺度数值预报系统(CMA-BJ v2.0)对此次降水过程的预报性能和表现。使用资料包括京津冀地区站点降水观测、欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)、美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)GFS(Global Forecast System)全球预报场。结果表明:CMA-BJ v2.0预报与观测的累计降水空间量分布特征整体一致,降水时段一致,雨量整体偏大,其中D02预报与观测最为接近。使用GFS全球场进行驱动时,雨带整体南移,降水高值区出现在河北省中、南部,与观测偏差较大,使用ECMWF驱动预报更接近观测;多次循环同化策略相比于冷启动不同化、冷启动单次同化方式,风速不断增大,带来大量水汽,降水的分布与观 测更加吻合;边界层参数化方案的选择对风场的预报有一定的影响,进而影响降水的分布和量级,此次降水过程中 YSU( Yonsei University scheme)方案较 ACM2(Asymmetric Convective Model)、Boulac(Bougeault-Lacarrere scheme)方案预报效果更好。 展开更多
关键词 极端强降水过程 CMA-BJ 大尺度背景场 同化 物理过程
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祊河地方水文站2024年“7·07”暴雨洪水分析
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作者 秦福惠 王庆红 郭小东 《水资源开发与管理》 2025年第6期72-76,59,共6页
为提高中小河流防洪减灾能力,本文根据实测水文资料,分析了祊河地方水文站2024年“7·07”暴雨洪水特性和洪水测报情况,并采用瞬时单位线法进行洪水预报,结果显示,洪水预报的洪峰流量与预报时间误差评定均在许可误差范围内。分析结... 为提高中小河流防洪减灾能力,本文根据实测水文资料,分析了祊河地方水文站2024年“7·07”暴雨洪水特性和洪水测报情况,并采用瞬时单位线法进行洪水预报,结果显示,洪水预报的洪峰流量与预报时间误差评定均在许可误差范围内。分析结果明晰了暴雨洪水时空演变规律,表明了利用水位-流量关系线加密巡测间隙报汛频次的方法对优化水文站测验方式具有积极的意义,同时发现,瞬时单位线在当地应用效果较好,可推广应用于无资料中小河流洪水预警预报工作中。 展开更多
关键词 地方水文站 暴雨特性 洪水测报 全过程测报 瞬时单位线
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Diagnostic Analysis on a Regional Rainstorm Weather in North-central Henan Province 被引量:1
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作者 SUN Zhong-yi ZHANG Zhen LI Ji-hua 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 CAS 2011年第6期19-23,共5页
[Objective] The research aimed to analyze a regional rainstorm weather process in north-central Henan Province. [Method] Based on the conventional meteorological observation data and the rainfall data of Henan Meteoro... [Objective] The research aimed to analyze a regional rainstorm weather process in north-central Henan Province. [Method] Based on the conventional meteorological observation data and the rainfall data of Henan Meteorological Station, the diagnostic analysis of atmospheric thermodynamics and dynamics on a rainstorm weather process in north-central Henan Province on July 19, 2010 was carried out. The characteristics of physical quantity field and the evolution of weather situation in north-central Henan Province when the rainstorm happened were studied. [Result] Western Pacific subtropical high strengthened to extend westward. The dynamic uplifting of low vortex at the middle and low layers, the strong water vapor transportation of southwest low-level jet caused the regional rainstorm weather process in north-central Henan Province. The diagnostic results of physical quantity showed that the deep, thick wet layer and the sustained water vapor convergence provided the abundant water vapor for rainstorm generation. The positive vorticity advection center developed and spread from northwest to southeast, which was favorable for the development of vertical movement. The structure maintenance of positive vorticity at the middle and low layers, negative vorticity at the middle and high levels provided the power condition for the regional rainstorm generation. The pumping effect of convergence at the middle and low layers, divergence at the high layer was favorable for the strengthening of vertical ascending motion at the low layer. The uplifting effect of dew point front at the middle and low layers triggered the release of unstable energy. The confrontation of warm and cold air was one of the important reasons for the regional rainstorm. TBB characteristic analysis showed that TBB was from -60 to -50 ℃ in north-central Henan Province in the whole strong precipitation time, and the moving speed was equivalent to that of southwest vortex. The low-value belt of TBB corresponded with the rainstorm occurrence zone in Henan, and the minimum-value center of TBB was basically consistent with the strongest center of precipitation. [Conclusion] The research provided the scientific basis for the short-term forecast of rainstorm. 展开更多
关键词 North-central Henan Province Regional rainstorm Weather process Diagnostic analysis China
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近62 a三峡地区区域性暴雨过程气候特征及长期变化规律 被引量:2
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作者 王荣 叶殿秀 +3 位作者 肖潺 赵珊珊 陈鲜艳 李威 《水利水电技术(中英文)》 北大核心 2024年第2期16-26,共11页
【目的】充分认识三峡地区区域暴雨过程的气候特征及长期变化规律对于科学防汛以及合理利用水资源具有重要意义。【方法】基于三峡地区33个国家级气象观测站1961—2022年逐日降水量资料和目前重庆市气候中心业务采用的区域性暴雨过程监... 【目的】充分认识三峡地区区域暴雨过程的气候特征及长期变化规律对于科学防汛以及合理利用水资源具有重要意义。【方法】基于三峡地区33个国家级气象观测站1961—2022年逐日降水量资料和目前重庆市气候中心业务采用的区域性暴雨过程监测指标,对三峡地区区域性暴雨过程进行客观识别,并利用多种数理统计方法分析区域性暴雨过程的气候特征和长期变化规律。【结果】结果表明:(1)三峡地区近三分之二的暴雨以区域性过程形式出现,平均每年区域性暴雨过程有8.4次,主要出现在5—9月,尤以6—7月为集中发生时段。区域性暴雨过程首次开始日期多年平均为5月8日,末次结束日期为9月17日。平均每次过程的暴雨覆盖范围为8.6站,持续时间1.3 d,平均暴雨强度为74.7 mm/d。(2)三峡地区区域性暴雨过程年频次存在2~3 a和8 a左右的变化周期,年平均区域性暴雨过程覆盖范围存在4~6 a和8~11 a周期变化。(3)近62 a三峡地区区域性暴雨过程的首次开始日期显著提前,末次结束日期无明显变化,发生期显著变长;发生频次没有明显变化趋势、平均持续时间、平均覆盖范围、平均综合强度也均没有明显变化趋势,但平均暴雨强度呈增强趋势。(4)近62 a,三峡地区区域性暴雨过程的各项指标均未发生突变现象。【结论】研究成果为三峡地区防汛减灾、水资源管理以及回应三峡工程对局地气候影响的社会关切等提供科学支撑。 展开更多
关键词 区域性暴雨过程 气候特征 变化趋势 变化周期 三峡地区 极端降雨 降水 三峡水库
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Study of One Rainstorm Being Affected by Two Weather Systems in Jinzhou Area
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作者 YAN Zhi-yu, YANG Gui-juan Jinzhou Meteorological Bureau of Liaoning Province, Jinzhou 121001, China 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 CAS 2011年第4期30-32,38,共4页
[Objective] The aim was to study one rainstorm process being affected by two weather system. [Method] Influenced by high trough and Mongolia cold front, high latitude trough and subtropical high shear, rainstorm occur... [Objective] The aim was to study one rainstorm process being affected by two weather system. [Method] Influenced by high trough and Mongolia cold front, high latitude trough and subtropical high shear, rainstorm occurred in Jinzhou from October 19 to 22 in 2010. In order to make the analysis clear, there were two precipitation stages. Considering precipitation, weather situation, satellite image and numerical forecast, the rainstorm process was discussed. [Result] There were two raining stages during this precipitation. The first stage was affected by high altitude trough and ground Mongolia cold front, and the last stage was influenced by high altitude trough and subtropical high shear;the high latitude air, low latitude shear,low air torrent,subtropical high and their mutual coupling effect were the main influencing system and cause for this rainstorm. Satellite image suggested that there was convective cloud developing,weakening, disappearing and regenerating around the convective cloud of water vapor passage, showing distinct train operation state. The strengthening and weakening cloud image fitted the real precipitation. Numerical forecast precisely predicted the upper air and ground situation of the generation of rainstorm, especially the report of the east-retreating and south-falling trend of subtropical high;European center forecast fitted reality. There was certain error in predicting T639. Precipitation forecast was fine. [Conclusion] The study provided basis for the meteorological service work in future. 展开更多
关键词 Influencing system rainstorm process analysis Jinzhou area China
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云南区域性暴雨过程时空变化特征 被引量:2
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作者 杨鹏武 周德丽 +3 位作者 吉文娟 马思源 罗蒙 李蒙 《气象与环境学报》 2024年第3期83-90,共8页
针对中国气象局发布的《区域性重要过程(暴雨)监测和评价业务规定》确定了云南本地化区域性暴雨过程识别阈值,经灾害数据检验客观有效。进一步应用气候趋势分析、M-K检验、小波分析、EOF分析及REOF分析等方法研究了1961—2022年云南区... 针对中国气象局发布的《区域性重要过程(暴雨)监测和评价业务规定》确定了云南本地化区域性暴雨过程识别阈值,经灾害数据检验客观有效。进一步应用气候趋势分析、M-K检验、小波分析、EOF分析及REOF分析等方法研究了1961—2022年云南区域性暴雨过程的时空分布特征。结果表明:云南历次区域性暴雨过程综合强度波动较大,年平均综合强度呈减小趋势,但不显著,月平均综合强度呈波动分布,峰值出现在1月,雨季各旬平均综合强度变化较小。云南区域性暴雨过程年均4次,1977年以后呈减少趋势,但不显著,没有明显突变点,2008—2022年过程频次有6~8 a周期,但不稳定,云南区域性暴雨过程夏季最多,冬季最少,6月中旬至8月下旬过程数约占全年近7成。云南区域性暴雨过程呈南多北少分布,北部边缘虽然频次较少,但过程降水强度较大。云南区域性暴雨过程呈现全省大部一致型、东北-西南反向型及南北反向型等5个主要模态,进一步可分为5个典型区,即南区、西区、中东部区、北区及西北区,过去62 a,南区、西区和中东部区波动较大,变化趋势不明显,北区平稳少变,西北区前期以偏少为主,后期增加明显。 展开更多
关键词 区域性暴雨过程 EOF分析 REOF分析
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Comparative Analysis of Two Local Heavy Rainstorms in Northwestern Shandong
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作者 ZHU Yi-qing CAO Xing-feng +2 位作者 LIU Ying-jie SUN Chang-zheng HU Shun-qi 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 CAS 2011年第9期24-27,共4页
[Objective] The aim was to comparatively analyze two local heavy rainstroms in northwestern Shandong Province, China. [Method] Based on the observation data from automatic weather station, sounding data and NCEP reana... [Objective] The aim was to comparatively analyze two local heavy rainstroms in northwestern Shandong Province, China. [Method] Based on the observation data from automatic weather station, sounding data and NCEP reanalysis data, two local heavy rainstorms at night on July 18 and August 9 in 2010 in northwestern Shandong was comparatively analyzed from the aspects of circulation situation, influence system and physical field, and the internal structure and possible formation mechanism of local heavy rain in Shandong were discussed further. [Result] The two rainstorms occurred in the forepart of southwest air in front of 500 hPa trough, and there was stronger atmospheric baroclinicity in the front zone near 850 hPa. The two rainstorms were affected by southwest warm and humid airflow at low level and shear line at 850 hPa; rainstorm often appeared in intensive area behind θse high-energy tongue, and rainstorm area corresponded with the area with high vertical speed well. From the differences, during the first rainstorm, there was obvious southwest low level jet and shear line at 700 hPa, and the area with high precipitation was located in the south of warm shear line at 700 hPa; during the latter rainstorm, there was no obvious southwest low level jet and shear line, and the area with high precipitation was located in the region between two high pressures. [Conclusion] The study could provide valuable thinking for the forecast of this kind of rainstorm in the future. 展开更多
关键词 Local heavy rainstorms Weather process Comparative analysis Northwestern Shandong China
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Analysis of a Heavy Rainstorm in Jincheng in August of 2010
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作者 CHENG Hai-xia ZHANG Hong-xia +1 位作者 ZHANG Yan WANG Jian-ming 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 CAS 2011年第9期28-31,34,共5页
[Objective] A heavy rainstorm in Jincheng in August in 2010 was expounded. [Method] By dint of the conventional meteorological data, and automatic weather station data, and Doppler radar data, one severe torrential ra... [Objective] A heavy rainstorm in Jincheng in August in 2010 was expounded. [Method] By dint of the conventional meteorological data, and automatic weather station data, and Doppler radar data, one severe torrential rainstorm was analyzed from the aspect of circulation background, physical quantity field, satellite cloud image, and radar echo, etc. [Result] The rainstorm was in the circulation field of low-west-east-obstruction, and was formed under the middle and low layer shear line and low air torrent situation. The low layer shear and convergence of wind favorable to the lift of unsteady air around Jincheng. The intrusion of cold air in the low layer of convective layer and above the ground trigered such convective weather. The torrent of the low air in the southwest sent abundant water vapor to the rainstorm area. The high temperature and the moisture accumulated much unsteady energy for the generation of rainstorm. The main precipitation system of this process was the singular of convective echo which was stimulated by the ground mesoscale shear line. Under the guidance of southwest airstream of the low and middle air, the convective echo singular formed train effect by moving towards Jincheng and formed large rainstorm. Doppler radar data suggested that the characteristics of the generation, development and movement of this mesoscale rainstorm system. The strong precipitation center was in the large value area of the gradient in the back of the TBB center. [Conclusion] The study provided references for the forecast and pre-warning of temporary rainstorm of such kind. 展开更多
关键词 Heavy rainstorm Weather process Mesoscale shear Convective echo cell Train effect China
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Analysis of Regional Rainstorm from August 5 to 6 in 2011
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作者 ZHANG Hai YI Zhong-hai +2 位作者 ZHOU Chang-qing TANG Ming-hui OU Xiao-feng 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 2012年第6期9-12,19,共5页
[ Objective] The aim was to analyze the regional rainstorm in Hunan from August 5 to 6 in 2011. [ Method] Based on regional automatic station data, air-exploration data, upper air data and radar data in Hunan Province... [ Objective] The aim was to analyze the regional rainstorm in Hunan from August 5 to 6 in 2011. [ Method] Based on regional automatic station data, air-exploration data, upper air data and radar data in Hunan Province, the formation mechanism of rainstorm in Hunan was analyzed. The changes of reflection rate, horizontal speed and relevant physical quantity factors in Dongting Lake were explored, and the reports of height field and wind pattern in Europe center were testified. [ Result] Dudng this process, the regional rainstorm occurred when the typhoon influenced east coast. The coastal circulation background was a two-ridge-one-trough situation. The leading influential system was the lower trough in the up- per air, shear line in the middle and lower layer and ground weak cold air. There was bypass at 200 hPa. CAPE value enlarged and SI index de- creased. Enough vapors can make up the transportation of water vapor in the middle and lower layer. Two echo clouds entered strong convection wind storm, and dry air entered into the storm, which resulted in slowly movement of strong wind storm. There was back wind area and strong con- vergence area in the lower layer. Heedwind and strong convergence areas were in the lower layer of speed product. By comparing the report of 500 hPa height with the reality, it was found that the height value of the typhoon was higher than the reality, the high pressure center was smaller than the reality, 48 h forecast showed more mistakes than the 24 h report. The UV report at 500 and 800 hPa was larger than that at 24 h. The error in report typhoon was large, especially around the shear line or trough line. [ Conclusion] The study provided reference for the forecast of rainstorm. 展开更多
关键词 Regional rainstorm process analysis HUNAN China
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