This study proposes a novel radar echo extrapolation algorithm,OF-ConvGRU,which integrates Optical Flow(OF)and Convolutional Gated Recurrent Unit(ConvGRU)methods for improved nowcasting.Using the Standardized Radar Da...This study proposes a novel radar echo extrapolation algorithm,OF-ConvGRU,which integrates Optical Flow(OF)and Convolutional Gated Recurrent Unit(ConvGRU)methods for improved nowcasting.Using the Standardized Radar Dataset of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,the performance of OF-ConvGRU was evaluated against OF and ConvGRU methods.Threat Score(TS)and Bias Score(BIAS)were employed to assess extrapolation accuracy across various echo intensities(20-50 dBz)and weather phenomena.Results demonstrate that OF-ConvGRU significantly enhances prediction accuracy for moderate-intensity echoes(30-40 dBz),effectively combining OF s precise motion estimation with ConvGRU s nonlinear learning capabilities.However,challenges persist in low-intensity(20 dBz)and high-intensity(50 dBz)echo predictions.The study reveals distinct advantages of each method in specific contexts,highlighting the importance of multi-method approaches in operational nowcasting.OF-ConvGRU shows promise in balancing short-term accuracy with long-term stability,particularly for complex weather systems.展开更多
Based on the radar data and lightning position indicator data of strong thunderstorm weather which happened in Fuxin on July 8,2007,the relationship between the lightning activity and the radar echo was analyzed.The r...Based on the radar data and lightning position indicator data of strong thunderstorm weather which happened in Fuxin on July 8,2007,the relationship between the lightning activity and the radar echo was analyzed.The results showed that Fuxin area located in the cross position of T-shaped trough and was affected by the cold air which continuously glided down.The corresponding warm front on the ground advanced southward and arrived here.It was the weather background of this thunderstorm weather.The position variation of lightning occurrence was closely related to the strong echo movement of squall line,and the velocity echo clearly reflected and predicted the movement tendency of the radar echo.展开更多
By using the conventional observations, radar data, NCEP/NCAR FNL 1°×1° reanalysis data and numerical simulation data and with the construction and calculation of radar echo parameters, this paper prese...By using the conventional observations, radar data, NCEP/NCAR FNL 1°×1° reanalysis data and numerical simulation data and with the construction and calculation of radar echo parameters, this paper presents the structural characteristics and physical processes of a short-time heavy precipitation supercell that occurred in the squall line process in Shanxi Province on 24 June 2020. The results show that this squall line event occurred in front of a surface cold front,combined with infiltration of low-level cold air and continuous increase of near-surface humidity in the afternoon. The surface mesoscale convergence line and mesoscale dew point front contributed to the development and systemization of the squall line by a large degree. The short-time extremely heavy precipitation in Pingshun County was caused by the development of a supercell from thunderstorm cells on the front side of the squall line. The characteristics of sharp increase in vertical integral liquid water content, persistent increase in reflectivity factor and continuous rise in the echo top height appeared about 23 min earlier than the severe precipitation, which has qualitative indicating significance for the nowcasting of short-time heavy precipitation. A quantitative analysis of the radar echo parameters suggests that the“sudden drop”of FV40was a precursor signal of cells’ coalescence and rapid development to the mature stage. The areal change of the echo core at the 6 km height was highly subject to the merging and developing of cells, the rapid change of hydrometeor particles in clouds and the precipitation intensity. Changes in the cross-sectional area of convective cells at different heights can indirectly reflect the changes of liquid particles and ice particles in clouds, which is indicatively meaningful for predicting the coalescing and developing-to-maturing of cells and heavy precipitation 30-45 min earlier.A comprehensive echo parameter prediction model constructed by the random forest principle can predict the magnitude of short-time heavy precipitation 40-50 min in advance. Numerical simulation reveals that large amounts of water vapor existed in the near-surface atmosphere, and that the cells rapidly obtained moisture from the ambient atmosphere and developed rapidly through maternal feeding. The cold cloud zone was narrow, upright and had a high stretch height. The upward motion in clouds was strong and deep, and very rich in liquid water content. The graupel particles had a large vertical distribution range, the coexistence area of graupel and snow was large, the height of raindrops was close to the surface with a wide horizontal scale, and the precipitation efficiency was high. These may be the important elements responsible for the occurrence of the short-time heavy precipitation that exceeded historical extreme values. On the basis of the above analyses, a comprehensive parameter(CP) prediction model is worked out, which can estimate the developing trend of supercells and the intensity of short-time heavy precipitation about 1 h in advance.展开更多
Based on the CINRAD Doppler radar data in Guangzhou and the lightning data in 2004 by power suppliers of Guangdong, statistical study is done by overlaying lightning＇s position on radar＇s echo. The result shows the ...Based on the CINRAD Doppler radar data in Guangzhou and the lightning data in 2004 by power suppliers of Guangdong, statistical study is done by overlaying lightning＇s position on radar＇s echo. The result shows the followings. The concentrated period in which more negative lightning occurred at the middle levels （2 - 14 km）, where radar echo was moderate （12 - 45 dBz）, rather than at the low levels with the weakest echoes or at high levels with the strongest echoes. At levels 3 - 11 km, where the radar echo was between 10 dBz and 35 dBz, the area of negative lightning was much larger in central Guangdong than in the rest of the province. At levels 0.5 - 7 krn where the radar echoes were between 44 dBz and 51 dBz, the probability for a point to have negative lightning varies from 0.4 to 0.7.展开更多
This paper presents a novel method for fast calculation of radar echo in near-field regions after the equivalent source has been computed by method of moments(MoM).An easy-to-access near-field database(NFDB)is establi...This paper presents a novel method for fast calculation of radar echo in near-field regions after the equivalent source has been computed by method of moments(MoM).An easy-to-access near-field database(NFDB)is established,which is built on the auxiliary tetrahedral meshes surrounding the nearfield regions of interest.The near-fields calculation(NFC)of arbitrary observation points can be expressed explicitly via the NFDB.An efficient matrix compression scheme named random sampling-based butterfly factorization(RS-BF)is proposed to speed up the construction of NFDB.With this approach,each group of O(N)elements in the database can be calculated through one fast matrix-vector multiplication operation that has a computational complexity below O(Nlog~2 N).The proposed method can avoid time-consuming point-by-point NFC of the traditional methods.Several numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of this method.In particular,the echo simulation of a missile-target encounter example is presented to illustrate its capability for practical applications.展开更多
Weather radar echo extrapolation plays a crucial role in weather forecasting.However,traditional weather radar echo extrapolation methods are not very accurate and do not make full use of historical data.Deep learning...Weather radar echo extrapolation plays a crucial role in weather forecasting.However,traditional weather radar echo extrapolation methods are not very accurate and do not make full use of historical data.Deep learning algorithms based on Recurrent Neural Networks also have the problem of accumulating errors.Moreover,it is difficult to obtain higher accuracy by relying on a single historical radar echo observation.Therefore,in this study,we constructed the Fusion GRU module,which leverages a cascade structure to effectively combine radar echo data and mean wind data.We also designed the Top Connection so that the model can capture the global spatial relationship to construct constraints on the predictions.Based on the Jiangsu Province dataset,we compared some models.The results show that our proposed model,Cascade Fusion Spatiotemporal Network(CFSN),improved the critical success index(CSI)by 10.7%over the baseline at the threshold of 30 dBZ.Ablation experiments further validated the effectiveness of our model.Similarly,the CSI of the complete CFSN was 0.004 higher than the suboptimal solution without the cross-attention module at the threshold of 30 dBZ.展开更多
[Objective] The aim was to analyze radar echo characteristic of a heavy rainstorm in central Guangxi in June, 2010. [Method] Using conventional observations and automatic stations, Doppler radar and other data, a seve...[Objective] The aim was to analyze radar echo characteristic of a heavy rainstorm in central Guangxi in June, 2010. [Method] Using conventional observations and automatic stations, Doppler radar and other data, a severe rainstorm in central of Guangxi which occurred on 31 May to 1 June 2010 was analyzed. The characteristics of weather radar data were analyzed to reveal the characteristics of radar echo during the heavy precipitation process. [ Result] The heavy rainstorm had gone through many singular wind storms towards MCS variation. The existence of ultra-sin- gular and ＂train effect＂ was the main reason of the heavy rainstorm. The results showed that during the heavy rainfall experienced an evolution process from multi-cell storm to MCS, and found that super cell and the ＂train effect＂ was the major reason which caused this torrential rain. The echo centroid of multi-cell storm stretching along its moving reverse order was the key factor which maintained the heavy rain. Analysis also found that the average echo intensity had a good relationship with rainfall. Strong echoes were in quasi-stationary state for a long time and was favorable heavy rain. In the diameter velocity diagram, mesoscale convergence line, the adverse wind regions and the mid-cyclone were the important basis to determine producing and keeping heavy rainfall. Radar wind profile can reflect the configuration of layers of wind conditions, and it was an effective tool to determine whether the trough was in transition or not. [ Conclusion] The study provided reference for the short-term and nowcasting report.展开更多
Based on cloud-ground lightning data and Doppler weather radar echo products, both thecharacteristics and the relations of lightning and radar echoes for strong convective rainstorms over Yunnanare analyzed during the...Based on cloud-ground lightning data and Doppler weather radar echo products, both thecharacteristics and the relations of lightning and radar echoes for strong convective rainstorms over Yunnanare analyzed during the flood season of 2007. The results show that most rainstorms are convective in whichlightning is mostly negative and the negative lightning number accounts for more than 90% of the total.Although the correlation between precipitation and the lightning number is small on the rainstorm day, thelarge day-lightning frequency usually produces heavy precipitation. Hourly evolution of precipitation andlightning frequency shows peak-style characteristics. And their evolution is very coherent in strongrainstorm, but lightning often occurs before precipitation, whose peaks are in phase with or 1-to-2-hourlagged behind that of lightning frequency. Meanwhile the peaks of positive frequency are in phase with orfall behind that of precipitation. When the wind field is heterogeneous in radial velocity, it is conducive toboth the development of convection echoes and occurrence of lightning. Strong lightning-producingconvective rainstorms correspond to strong echo fields and usually result in reflectivity above 30 dBZ andecho top ET of more than 9 km, respectively.展开更多
Based on the puzzle data of radar reflectivity in and around Jiangxi Province,the slope profile method and the polar coordinate method were used to display the vertical profiles of radar echoes between any two points....Based on the puzzle data of radar reflectivity in and around Jiangxi Province,the slope profile method and the polar coordinate method were used to display the vertical profiles of radar echoes between any two points.The technical route of extracting radar echo profile data by the slope method was proposed and applied to the short-term early warning platform of Jiangxi Province.A thunderstorm weather process occurring from Dongxiang to Wannian on September 23,2018 was analyzed by radar echo profiles.At present,the program has been applied to the short-term early warning platform of Jiangxi Province based on B/S architecture.The automatic drawing and display of radar echo profiles of any two points is practical for forecasters to quickly and effectively track short-term strong convection weather.展开更多
This research study represents an ongoing research effort on Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) with a focus on anomalous propagation of radar echo returns, mirroring established theoretical constructs of gravitat...This research study represents an ongoing research effort on Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) with a focus on anomalous propagation of radar echo returns, mirroring established theoretical constructs of gravitational effects on light, which occur at higher frequencies and shorter wavelengths within the Electromagnetic Spectrum. These influences are also illustrated through other technologies, including Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) and the chromatic effects captured by hyperspectral cameras. This research addresses the complexities of interpreting unusual propagation patterns, such as Long Delay Echoes (LDE) and unexpected Field Echoes (UFE), which disrupt the anticipated propagation and echo protocols, thereby challenging our understanding and comprehension of radio transmission norms that may be influenced by a form of quantum entanglement. The paper posits a significant and largely unexamined correlation between these phenomena in the context of UAP activity, highlighting the urgent need for further research and innovative strategies in navigation technology and environmental monitoring to investigate these potential occurrences, which have remained enigmatic for nearly a century. Radar signals are vulnerable to intricate dynamics that can lead to Unusual Field Echoes (UFE), resulting in emergent anomalies, such as Multiple echo returns and LDEs. This study employed a 3-centimeter marine-based X-band radar operating in two scan geometries and a portable short-range millimeter-wave Doppler radar system. An analysis of these radar echoes over a two-year study identified signal propagation that deviated from navigational standards on Plan Position Indicators (PPI). This paper explores and investigates the potential impacts of UAP on radar transmission routes. Examining these complexities makes a case for an enhanced understanding of the interactions between established technological factors and elusive aerial phenomena.展开更多
Accurate precipitation nowcasting can provide great convenience to the public so they can conduct corresponding arrangements in advance to deal with the possible impact of upcoming heavy rain.Recent relevant research ...Accurate precipitation nowcasting can provide great convenience to the public so they can conduct corresponding arrangements in advance to deal with the possible impact of upcoming heavy rain.Recent relevant research activities have shown their concerns on various deep learning models for radar echo extrapolation,where radar echo maps were used to predict their consequent moment,so as to recognize potential severe convective weather events.However,these approaches suffer from an inaccurate prediction of echo dynamics and unreliable depiction of echo aggregation or dissipation,due to the size limitation of convolution filter,lack of global feature,and less attention to features from previous states.To address the problems,this paper proposes a CEMA-LSTM recurrent unit,which is embedded with a Contextual Feature Correlation Enhancement Block(CEB)and a Multi-Attention Mechanism Block(MAB).The CEB enhances contextual feature correlation and supports its model to memorize significant features for near-future prediction;the MAB uses a position and channel attention mechanism to capture global features of radar echoes.Two practical radar echo datasets were used involving the FREM and CIKM 2017 datasets.Both quantification and visualization of comparative experimental results have demonstrated outperformance of the proposed CEMA-LSTMover recentmodels,e.g.,PhyDNet,MIM and PredRNN++,etc.In particular,compared with the second-rankedmodel,its average POD,FAR and CSI have been improved by 3.87%,1.65%and 1.79%,respectively on the FREM,and by 1.42%,5.60%and 3.16%,respectively on the CIKM 2017.展开更多
The European Incoherent Scatter Scientific Association(EISCAT) Very High Frequency(224 MHz) Radar has been used to investigate the aspect sensitivity of polar mesosphere summer echoes(PMSE) in the period 13–15 July 2...The European Incoherent Scatter Scientific Association(EISCAT) Very High Frequency(224 MHz) Radar has been used to investigate the aspect sensitivity of polar mesosphere summer echoes(PMSE) in the period 13–15 July 2010. The aspect sensitivity of PMSE using this radar and at such a high frequency has not been previously reported. Data concerning the aspect sensitivity of PMSE were collected by traversing the antenna beam from the zenith direction, and comparing the received power. Surprisingly, as the intensity received by the oblique beam was often larger than that of the vertical beam, suggesting the presence of tilted dusty plasma layers as a potential cause, a theoretical model was developed to confirm the existence of these layers and their formation process. The experimental results and theoretical model presented help elucidate the structural properties of the possible generation mechanism of strong radar echoes in the polar summer mesosphere region.展开更多
Bistatic/multistatic radar has great potential advantages over its monostatic counterpart. However, the separation of a transmitter and a receiver leads to difficulties in locating the target position accurately and g...Bistatic/multistatic radar has great potential advantages over its monostatic counterpart. However, the separation of a transmitter and a receiver leads to difficulties in locating the target position accurately and guaranteeing space-timefrequency synchronization of the transmitter and the receiver.The error model of space-time-frequency synchronization in a motion platform of bistatic/multistatic radar is studied. The relationship between the space synchronization error and the transmitter platform position, receiver platform position, moving state, and beam pointing error, is analyzed. The effect of space synchronization error on target echo power is studied. The target scattering characteristics are restructured by many separate scattering centers of the target in high frequency regions. Based on the scattering centers model of the radar target, this radar target echo model and the simulation method are discussed. The algorithm of bistatic/multistatic radar target echo accurately reflects the scattering characteristics of the radar target, pulse modulation speciality of radar transmitting signals, and spacetime-frequency synchronization error characteristics between the transmitter station and the receiver station. The simulation of bistatic radar is completed in computer, and the results of the simulation validate the feasibility of the method.展开更多
This paper has proposed a new modelling and simulating technique for the echo of the semi-active radar seeker against the sea skimming target. The echo modelling is based on the electromagnetic scattering mechanisms. ...This paper has proposed a new modelling and simulating technique for the echo of the semi-active radar seeker against the sea skimming target. The echo modelling is based on the electromagnetic scattering mechanisms. A modified Four-path model based on the radar detection scene is used to describe the multipath scattering between the target and rough sea surface. A Facet-based Small Slope Approximation (FBSSA) method is employed to calculate the scattering from the sea surface. The Physical Optics (PO) and the Equivalent Edge Current (EEC) Method is used to calculate the target scattering. In the echo simulations. The results present the original echo and the echo processed by the signal processing procedures, where the clutter and multipath effect can be observed.展开更多
A major issue in radar quantitative precipitation estimation is the contamination of radar echoes by non-meteorological targets such as ground clutter,chaff,clear air echoes etc.In this study,a fuzzy logic algorithm f...A major issue in radar quantitative precipitation estimation is the contamination of radar echoes by non-meteorological targets such as ground clutter,chaff,clear air echoes etc.In this study,a fuzzy logic algorithm for the identification of non-meteorological echoes is developed using optimized membership functions and weights for the dual-polarization radar located at Mount Sobaek.For selected precipitation and non-meteorological events,the characteristics of the precipitation and non-meteorological echo are derived by the probability density functions of five fuzzy parameters as functions of reflectivity values.The membership functions and weights are then determined by these density functions.Finally,the nonmeteorological echoes are identified by combining the membership functions and weights.The performance is qualitatively evaluated by long-term rain accumulation.The detection accuracy of the fuzzy logic algorithm is calculated using the probability of detection（POD）,false alarm rate（FAR）,and clutter–signal ratio（CSR）.In addition,the issues in using filtered dual-polarization data are alleviated.展开更多
Based on weather radar observation data,development and evolution characteristics of radar intensity echoes PPI and RHI of one ha shooting weather process in the Fifth Regiment of the First Division on May 24,2011 wer...Based on weather radar observation data,development and evolution characteristics of radar intensity echoes PPI and RHI of one ha shooting weather process in the Fifth Regiment of the First Division on May 24,2011 were analyzed. The results showed that local thermal forcin effect was obvious. The Fifth Regiment is close to mountain region,and the supplement of downward cold air from the mountain region was th most direct,and the supplement efficiency was the highest,which was main cause for the hail shooting generated by local severe convective weath er in west area of south Xinjiang. In the hail weather development process,vault( weak echo zone),front suspending echo and echo wall of supe cell on radar echo showed that airflow activity was strong in windstorm,which had an important indication significance for discrimination of ha cloud. The research could provide reference basis for conducting artificial hail suppression and proximity prediction of severe convective weather i reclamation area in the future,and had certain indication significance and better application value.展开更多
A bow echo is a type of mesoscale convective phenomenon that often induces extreme weather and appears with strong reflectivity on radar images. A strong bow echo that developed from a supercell was observed over Fosh...A bow echo is a type of mesoscale convective phenomenon that often induces extreme weather and appears with strong reflectivity on radar images. A strong bow echo that developed from a supercell was observed over Foshan City in southern China on 17 April 2011. The intense gusty winds and showers caused huge losses of property and severely affected human lives. This paper presents an analysis of this strong meso- n-scale convective system based on Doppler radar observations. The isolated bow echo exhibited a horizontal scale of about 80 km in terms of reflectivity above 40 dBZ, and a life span of 8 hours. The system originated from the merging of a couple of weakly organized cells in a shear line, and developed into an arch shape as it moved through the shear zone. Sufficient surface moisture supply ensured the convective instability and development of the bow echo. The low-altitude winds retrieved from single Doppler radar observations showed an obvious rear-inflow jet along the notch area. Different from the conventional definition, no book- end anticyclone was observed throughout the life cycle. Very strong slantwise updrafts and downdrafts were recognizable from the retrieved winds, even though the spatial scale of the bow echo was small. Strong winds and induced damage on the surface are considered to have been caused by the mid-level rear-inflow jet and intense convective downdrafts.展开更多
基金Scientific Research and Development Project of Hebei Meteorological Bureau(23ky08).
文摘This study proposes a novel radar echo extrapolation algorithm,OF-ConvGRU,which integrates Optical Flow(OF)and Convolutional Gated Recurrent Unit(ConvGRU)methods for improved nowcasting.Using the Standardized Radar Dataset of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,the performance of OF-ConvGRU was evaluated against OF and ConvGRU methods.Threat Score(TS)and Bias Score(BIAS)were employed to assess extrapolation accuracy across various echo intensities(20-50 dBz)and weather phenomena.Results demonstrate that OF-ConvGRU significantly enhances prediction accuracy for moderate-intensity echoes(30-40 dBz),effectively combining OF s precise motion estimation with ConvGRU s nonlinear learning capabilities.However,challenges persist in low-intensity(20 dBz)and high-intensity(50 dBz)echo predictions.The study reveals distinct advantages of each method in specific contexts,highlighting the importance of multi-method approaches in operational nowcasting.OF-ConvGRU shows promise in balancing short-term accuracy with long-term stability,particularly for complex weather systems.
基金Supported by The Special Project of Public Welfare Industry Scientific Research(GYHY200806014)Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Project(E30JG0730)
文摘Based on the radar data and lightning position indicator data of strong thunderstorm weather which happened in Fuxin on July 8,2007,the relationship between the lightning activity and the radar echo was analyzed.The results showed that Fuxin area located in the cross position of T-shaped trough and was affected by the cold air which continuously glided down.The corresponding warm front on the ground advanced southward and arrived here.It was the weather background of this thunderstorm weather.The position variation of lightning occurrence was closely related to the strong echo movement of squall line,and the velocity echo clearly reflected and predicted the movement tendency of the radar echo.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(41475050)。
文摘By using the conventional observations, radar data, NCEP/NCAR FNL 1°×1° reanalysis data and numerical simulation data and with the construction and calculation of radar echo parameters, this paper presents the structural characteristics and physical processes of a short-time heavy precipitation supercell that occurred in the squall line process in Shanxi Province on 24 June 2020. The results show that this squall line event occurred in front of a surface cold front,combined with infiltration of low-level cold air and continuous increase of near-surface humidity in the afternoon. The surface mesoscale convergence line and mesoscale dew point front contributed to the development and systemization of the squall line by a large degree. The short-time extremely heavy precipitation in Pingshun County was caused by the development of a supercell from thunderstorm cells on the front side of the squall line. The characteristics of sharp increase in vertical integral liquid water content, persistent increase in reflectivity factor and continuous rise in the echo top height appeared about 23 min earlier than the severe precipitation, which has qualitative indicating significance for the nowcasting of short-time heavy precipitation. A quantitative analysis of the radar echo parameters suggests that the“sudden drop”of FV40was a precursor signal of cells’ coalescence and rapid development to the mature stage. The areal change of the echo core at the 6 km height was highly subject to the merging and developing of cells, the rapid change of hydrometeor particles in clouds and the precipitation intensity. Changes in the cross-sectional area of convective cells at different heights can indirectly reflect the changes of liquid particles and ice particles in clouds, which is indicatively meaningful for predicting the coalescing and developing-to-maturing of cells and heavy precipitation 30-45 min earlier.A comprehensive echo parameter prediction model constructed by the random forest principle can predict the magnitude of short-time heavy precipitation 40-50 min in advance. Numerical simulation reveals that large amounts of water vapor existed in the near-surface atmosphere, and that the cells rapidly obtained moisture from the ambient atmosphere and developed rapidly through maternal feeding. The cold cloud zone was narrow, upright and had a high stretch height. The upward motion in clouds was strong and deep, and very rich in liquid water content. The graupel particles had a large vertical distribution range, the coexistence area of graupel and snow was large, the height of raindrops was close to the surface with a wide horizontal scale, and the precipitation efficiency was high. These may be the important elements responsible for the occurrence of the short-time heavy precipitation that exceeded historical extreme values. On the basis of the above analyses, a comprehensive parameter(CP) prediction model is worked out, which can estimate the developing trend of supercells and the intensity of short-time heavy precipitation about 1 h in advance.
文摘Based on the CINRAD Doppler radar data in Guangzhou and the lightning data in 2004 by power suppliers of Guangdong, statistical study is done by overlaying lightning＇s position on radar＇s echo. The result shows the followings. The concentrated period in which more negative lightning occurred at the middle levels （2 - 14 km）, where radar echo was moderate （12 - 45 dBz）, rather than at the low levels with the weakest echoes or at high levels with the strongest echoes. At levels 3 - 11 km, where the radar echo was between 10 dBz and 35 dBz, the area of negative lightning was much larger in central Guangdong than in the rest of the province. At levels 0.5 - 7 krn where the radar echoes were between 44 dBz and 51 dBz, the probability for a point to have negative lightning varies from 0.4 to 0.7.
基金the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2017YFB0202500)。
文摘This paper presents a novel method for fast calculation of radar echo in near-field regions after the equivalent source has been computed by method of moments(MoM).An easy-to-access near-field database(NFDB)is established,which is built on the auxiliary tetrahedral meshes surrounding the nearfield regions of interest.The near-fields calculation(NFC)of arbitrary observation points can be expressed explicitly via the NFDB.An efficient matrix compression scheme named random sampling-based butterfly factorization(RS-BF)is proposed to speed up the construction of NFDB.With this approach,each group of O(N)elements in the database can be calculated through one fast matrix-vector multiplication operation that has a computational complexity below O(Nlog~2 N).The proposed method can avoid time-consuming point-by-point NFC of the traditional methods.Several numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of this method.In particular,the echo simulation of a missile-target encounter example is presented to illustrate its capability for practical applications.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(42375145)The Open Grants of China Meteorological Admin-istration Radar Meteorology Key Laboratory(2023LRM-A02)。
文摘Weather radar echo extrapolation plays a crucial role in weather forecasting.However,traditional weather radar echo extrapolation methods are not very accurate and do not make full use of historical data.Deep learning algorithms based on Recurrent Neural Networks also have the problem of accumulating errors.Moreover,it is difficult to obtain higher accuracy by relying on a single historical radar echo observation.Therefore,in this study,we constructed the Fusion GRU module,which leverages a cascade structure to effectively combine radar echo data and mean wind data.We also designed the Top Connection so that the model can capture the global spatial relationship to construct constraints on the predictions.Based on the Jiangsu Province dataset,we compared some models.The results show that our proposed model,Cascade Fusion Spatiotemporal Network(CFSN),improved the critical success index(CSI)by 10.7%over the baseline at the threshold of 30 dBZ.Ablation experiments further validated the effectiveness of our model.Similarly,the CSI of the complete CFSN was 0.004 higher than the suboptimal solution without the cross-attention module at the threshold of 30 dBZ.
文摘[Objective] The aim was to analyze radar echo characteristic of a heavy rainstorm in central Guangxi in June, 2010. [Method] Using conventional observations and automatic stations, Doppler radar and other data, a severe rainstorm in central of Guangxi which occurred on 31 May to 1 June 2010 was analyzed. The characteristics of weather radar data were analyzed to reveal the characteristics of radar echo during the heavy precipitation process. [ Result] The heavy rainstorm had gone through many singular wind storms towards MCS variation. The existence of ultra-sin- gular and ＂train effect＂ was the main reason of the heavy rainstorm. The results showed that during the heavy rainfall experienced an evolution process from multi-cell storm to MCS, and found that super cell and the ＂train effect＂ was the major reason which caused this torrential rain. The echo centroid of multi-cell storm stretching along its moving reverse order was the key factor which maintained the heavy rain. Analysis also found that the average echo intensity had a good relationship with rainfall. Strong echoes were in quasi-stationary state for a long time and was favorable heavy rain. In the diameter velocity diagram, mesoscale convergence line, the adverse wind regions and the mid-cyclone were the important basis to determine producing and keeping heavy rainfall. Radar wind profile can reflect the configuration of layers of wind conditions, and it was an effective tool to determine whether the trough was in transition or not. [ Conclusion] The study provided reference for the short-term and nowcasting report.
基金Technological and Planning Project of Yunnan Province(2009CA014)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41265001)
文摘Based on cloud-ground lightning data and Doppler weather radar echo products, both thecharacteristics and the relations of lightning and radar echoes for strong convective rainstorms over Yunnanare analyzed during the flood season of 2007. The results show that most rainstorms are convective in whichlightning is mostly negative and the negative lightning number accounts for more than 90% of the total.Although the correlation between precipitation and the lightning number is small on the rainstorm day, thelarge day-lightning frequency usually produces heavy precipitation. Hourly evolution of precipitation andlightning frequency shows peak-style characteristics. And their evolution is very coherent in strongrainstorm, but lightning often occurs before precipitation, whose peaks are in phase with or 1-to-2-hourlagged behind that of lightning frequency. Meanwhile the peaks of positive frequency are in phase with orfall behind that of precipitation. When the wind field is heterogeneous in radial velocity, it is conducive toboth the development of convection echoes and occurrence of lightning. Strong lightning-producingconvective rainstorms correspond to strong echo fields and usually result in reflectivity above 30 dBZ andecho top ET of more than 9 km, respectively.
基金Supported by the Project of Jiangxi Meteorological Bureau and Jiangxi Department of Science and Technology for Training of Young Talents in Jiangxi Province in 2017"Research on the Improvement of Cross Correlation Tracking Method(COTREC) Based on Continuous Equations"Key Research and Development Plan Project of Jiangxi Province,China(20171BBG70004)
文摘Based on the puzzle data of radar reflectivity in and around Jiangxi Province,the slope profile method and the polar coordinate method were used to display the vertical profiles of radar echoes between any two points.The technical route of extracting radar echo profile data by the slope method was proposed and applied to the short-term early warning platform of Jiangxi Province.A thunderstorm weather process occurring from Dongxiang to Wannian on September 23,2018 was analyzed by radar echo profiles.At present,the program has been applied to the short-term early warning platform of Jiangxi Province based on B/S architecture.The automatic drawing and display of radar echo profiles of any two points is practical for forecasters to quickly and effectively track short-term strong convection weather.
文摘This research study represents an ongoing research effort on Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) with a focus on anomalous propagation of radar echo returns, mirroring established theoretical constructs of gravitational effects on light, which occur at higher frequencies and shorter wavelengths within the Electromagnetic Spectrum. These influences are also illustrated through other technologies, including Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) and the chromatic effects captured by hyperspectral cameras. This research addresses the complexities of interpreting unusual propagation patterns, such as Long Delay Echoes (LDE) and unexpected Field Echoes (UFE), which disrupt the anticipated propagation and echo protocols, thereby challenging our understanding and comprehension of radio transmission norms that may be influenced by a form of quantum entanglement. The paper posits a significant and largely unexamined correlation between these phenomena in the context of UAP activity, highlighting the urgent need for further research and innovative strategies in navigation technology and environmental monitoring to investigate these potential occurrences, which have remained enigmatic for nearly a century. Radar signals are vulnerable to intricate dynamics that can lead to Unusual Field Echoes (UFE), resulting in emergent anomalies, such as Multiple echo returns and LDEs. This study employed a 3-centimeter marine-based X-band radar operating in two scan geometries and a portable short-range millimeter-wave Doppler radar system. An analysis of these radar echoes over a two-year study identified signal propagation that deviated from navigational standards on Plan Position Indicators (PPI). This paper explores and investigates the potential impacts of UAP on radar transmission routes. Examining these complexities makes a case for an enhanced understanding of the interactions between established technological factors and elusive aerial phenomena.
基金funding from the Key Laboratory Foundation of National Defence Technology under Grant 61424010208National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.62002276,41911530242 and 41975142)+3 种基金5150 Spring Specialists(05492018012 and 05762018039)Major Program of the National Social Science Fund of China(Grant No.17ZDA092)333 High-LevelTalent Cultivation Project of Jiangsu Province(BRA2018332)Royal Society of Edinburgh,UK andChina Natural Science Foundation Council(RSE Reference:62967)_Liu)_2018)_2)under their Joint International Projects Funding Scheme and Basic Research Programs(Natural Science Foundation)of Jiangsu Province(BK20191398 and BK20180794).
文摘Accurate precipitation nowcasting can provide great convenience to the public so they can conduct corresponding arrangements in advance to deal with the possible impact of upcoming heavy rain.Recent relevant research activities have shown their concerns on various deep learning models for radar echo extrapolation,where radar echo maps were used to predict their consequent moment,so as to recognize potential severe convective weather events.However,these approaches suffer from an inaccurate prediction of echo dynamics and unreliable depiction of echo aggregation or dissipation,due to the size limitation of convolution filter,lack of global feature,and less attention to features from previous states.To address the problems,this paper proposes a CEMA-LSTM recurrent unit,which is embedded with a Contextual Feature Correlation Enhancement Block(CEB)and a Multi-Attention Mechanism Block(MAB).The CEB enhances contextual feature correlation and supports its model to memorize significant features for near-future prediction;the MAB uses a position and channel attention mechanism to capture global features of radar echoes.Two practical radar echo datasets were used involving the FREM and CIKM 2017 datasets.Both quantification and visualization of comparative experimental results have demonstrated outperformance of the proposed CEMA-LSTMover recentmodels,e.g.,PhyDNet,MIM and PredRNN++,etc.In particular,compared with the second-rankedmodel,its average POD,FAR and CSI have been improved by 3.87%,1.65%and 1.79%,respectively on the FREM,and by 1.42%,5.60%and 3.16%,respectively on the CIKM 2017.
基金supported by CRIRP (China)NIPR (Japan)+3 种基金NFR (Sweden)PPARC (UK)RCN (Norway)SA (Finland)
文摘The European Incoherent Scatter Scientific Association(EISCAT) Very High Frequency(224 MHz) Radar has been used to investigate the aspect sensitivity of polar mesosphere summer echoes(PMSE) in the period 13–15 July 2010. The aspect sensitivity of PMSE using this radar and at such a high frequency has not been previously reported. Data concerning the aspect sensitivity of PMSE were collected by traversing the antenna beam from the zenith direction, and comparing the received power. Surprisingly, as the intensity received by the oblique beam was often larger than that of the vertical beam, suggesting the presence of tilted dusty plasma layers as a potential cause, a theoretical model was developed to confirm the existence of these layers and their formation process. The experimental results and theoretical model presented help elucidate the structural properties of the possible generation mechanism of strong radar echoes in the polar summer mesosphere region.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61271327)
文摘Bistatic/multistatic radar has great potential advantages over its monostatic counterpart. However, the separation of a transmitter and a receiver leads to difficulties in locating the target position accurately and guaranteeing space-timefrequency synchronization of the transmitter and the receiver.The error model of space-time-frequency synchronization in a motion platform of bistatic/multistatic radar is studied. The relationship between the space synchronization error and the transmitter platform position, receiver platform position, moving state, and beam pointing error, is analyzed. The effect of space synchronization error on target echo power is studied. The target scattering characteristics are restructured by many separate scattering centers of the target in high frequency regions. Based on the scattering centers model of the radar target, this radar target echo model and the simulation method are discussed. The algorithm of bistatic/multistatic radar target echo accurately reflects the scattering characteristics of the radar target, pulse modulation speciality of radar transmitting signals, and spacetime-frequency synchronization error characteristics between the transmitter station and the receiver station. The simulation of bistatic radar is completed in computer, and the results of the simulation validate the feasibility of the method.
文摘This paper has proposed a new modelling and simulating technique for the echo of the semi-active radar seeker against the sea skimming target. The echo modelling is based on the electromagnetic scattering mechanisms. A modified Four-path model based on the radar detection scene is used to describe the multipath scattering between the target and rough sea surface. A Facet-based Small Slope Approximation (FBSSA) method is employed to calculate the scattering from the sea surface. The Physical Optics (PO) and the Equivalent Edge Current (EEC) Method is used to calculate the target scattering. In the echo simulations. The results present the original echo and the echo processed by the signal processing procedures, where the clutter and multipath effect can be observed.
基金supported by a grant(14AWMP-B079364-01) from Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land,Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government
文摘A major issue in radar quantitative precipitation estimation is the contamination of radar echoes by non-meteorological targets such as ground clutter,chaff,clear air echoes etc.In this study,a fuzzy logic algorithm for the identification of non-meteorological echoes is developed using optimized membership functions and weights for the dual-polarization radar located at Mount Sobaek.For selected precipitation and non-meteorological events,the characteristics of the precipitation and non-meteorological echo are derived by the probability density functions of five fuzzy parameters as functions of reflectivity values.The membership functions and weights are then determined by these density functions.Finally,the nonmeteorological echoes are identified by combining the membership functions and weights.The performance is qualitatively evaluated by long-term rain accumulation.The detection accuracy of the fuzzy logic algorithm is calculated using the probability of detection（POD）,false alarm rate（FAR）,and clutter–signal ratio（CSR）.In addition,the issues in using filtered dual-polarization data are alleviated.
基金Supported by Huzhou Science and Technology Plan Project(2013GY06)Science Research Project of Huzhou Meteorological Bureau(hzqx201602)
文摘Based on weather radar observation data,development and evolution characteristics of radar intensity echoes PPI and RHI of one ha shooting weather process in the Fifth Regiment of the First Division on May 24,2011 were analyzed. The results showed that local thermal forcin effect was obvious. The Fifth Regiment is close to mountain region,and the supplement of downward cold air from the mountain region was th most direct,and the supplement efficiency was the highest,which was main cause for the hail shooting generated by local severe convective weath er in west area of south Xinjiang. In the hail weather development process,vault( weak echo zone),front suspending echo and echo wall of supe cell on radar echo showed that airflow activity was strong in windstorm,which had an important indication significance for discrimination of ha cloud. The research could provide reference basis for conducting artificial hail suppression and proximity prediction of severe convective weather i reclamation area in the future,and had certain indication significance and better application value.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2012CB417204)National Natural Science Foundation of China projects(Grant Nos.41175095 and 40875065)partly by the National Key Technology R&D Program(Grant No.2012BAC22B01)
文摘A bow echo is a type of mesoscale convective phenomenon that often induces extreme weather and appears with strong reflectivity on radar images. A strong bow echo that developed from a supercell was observed over Foshan City in southern China on 17 April 2011. The intense gusty winds and showers caused huge losses of property and severely affected human lives. This paper presents an analysis of this strong meso- n-scale convective system based on Doppler radar observations. The isolated bow echo exhibited a horizontal scale of about 80 km in terms of reflectivity above 40 dBZ, and a life span of 8 hours. The system originated from the merging of a couple of weakly organized cells in a shear line, and developed into an arch shape as it moved through the shear zone. Sufficient surface moisture supply ensured the convective instability and development of the bow echo. The low-altitude winds retrieved from single Doppler radar observations showed an obvious rear-inflow jet along the notch area. Different from the conventional definition, no book- end anticyclone was observed throughout the life cycle. Very strong slantwise updrafts and downdrafts were recognizable from the retrieved winds, even though the spatial scale of the bow echo was small. Strong winds and induced damage on the surface are considered to have been caused by the mid-level rear-inflow jet and intense convective downdrafts.
