In order to aim at improving the forecasting performance of the RMB/USD exchange rate, this paper proposes a new architecture of fuzzy neural networks based on fuzzy logic, and the method of point differential, which ...In order to aim at improving the forecasting performance of the RMB/USD exchange rate, this paper proposes a new architecture of fuzzy neural networks based on fuzzy logic, and the method of point differential, which guarantees not only the direction of weight correction, but also the needed precision for the BP algorithm. In applying genetic algorithms for optimal performance, this approach, in the forecasting of the RMB/USD real exchange rate from 1994 to 2000, obviously outperforms typical BP Neural Networks and exhibits a higher capacity in regard to nonlinear, time-variablility, and illegibility of the exchange rate.展开更多
China is transitioning its industrial structure from labor-and resource-intensive industries that previously contributed significantly to the country’s GDP growth to technology-intensive industries emphasizing a high...China is transitioning its industrial structure from labor-and resource-intensive industries that previously contributed significantly to the country’s GDP growth to technology-intensive industries emphasizing a highly-skilled workforce and sustainability to achieve high-quality economic growth.This paper examines the impact of the RMB exchange rate on high-quality economic growth through theoretical modeling and empirical analysis and discusses the variable of overseas education to explore the mechanism of how the RMB exchange rate and overseas education jointly impact high-quality economic growth.The research sample includes the National Bureau of Statistics data on education from 1995 to 2015,the Bank for International Settlements(BIS)data on the RMB exchange rate,and the added value of China’s high-quality economic growth estimated based on the national economy data.An empirical analysis of theoretical expectations was conducted,finding that RMB appreciation could make a positive contribution to China’s high-quality economic growth;RMB exchange rate fluctuations would impact the relative cost of overseas education and overseas returnees could have a positive impact on domestic resource utilization efficiency and domestic capacity to make sci-tech innovations,thereby injecting vitality to high-quality economic growth.This study focuses on both the RMB exchange rate and the population studying abroad,providing additional observation dimensions to existing research.展开更多
With the rapid expansion of the RMB exchange rate’s floating range,the effects of the RMB exchange rate and global commodity price changes on China’s stock prices are likely to increase.This study uses both auto reg...With the rapid expansion of the RMB exchange rate’s floating range,the effects of the RMB exchange rate and global commodity price changes on China’s stock prices are likely to increase.This study uses both auto regressive distributed lag(ARDL)and nonlinear ARDL(NARDL)approaches to explore the symmetric and asymmetric effects of the RMB exchange rate and global commodity prices on China’s stock prices.Our findings show that without considering the critical variable of global commodity prices,there is no cointegration relationship between the RMB exchange rate and China’s stock prices,and the coefficient of the RMB exchange rate is not statistically significant.However,when we introduce global commodity prices into the NARDL model,the result shows that the RMB exchange rate has a negative effect on China’s stock prices,that there indeed exists a long-run cointegration relationship among the RMB exchange rate,global commodity prices,and stock prices in the NARDL model,and that global commodity price changes have an asymmetric effect on China’s stock prices in the long run.Specifically,China’s stock prices are more sensitive to increases than decreases in global commodity prices.Thus,increases in global commodity prices cause China’s stock prices to decline sharply.In contrast,the same magnitude of decline in global commodity prices induces a smaller increase in China’s stock prices.展开更多
The exchange rate reform initiated on August 11,2015 is an important attempt by the PBoC to transform China's exchange rate regime from the"crawl-like arrangement"to a floating regime.However,after a thr...The exchange rate reform initiated on August 11,2015 is an important attempt by the PBoC to transform China's exchange rate regime from the"crawl-like arrangement"to a floating regime.However,after a three-day experiment,the PBoC abandoned the original goal of the reform.Since then,the central bank has implemented a new exchange rate-setting mechanism.Under this mechanism,the central parity of the renminbi(RMB)against the US dollar is decided by the arithmetic average of the RMB exchange rate that keeps the index of a currency basket unchanged over the past 24 hours and the previous day's closing price of USD/CNY.Due to the introduction of the index of a currency basket,additional uncertainty has been introduced into the determination of the RMB exchange rate,because of the uncertainty of the dollar index(USDX).As a result,to a certain extent,the one-way bet on the RMB expectations is weakened.However,the current exchange rate formation mechanism cannot reverse the trend of devaluation of the RMB,nor can it eliminate depreciation expectations.Meanwhile,it hinders the effectiveness of central bank's independent monetary policy based on the domestic economic fundamentals.And also,the"two-way float"created by the new price-setting mechanism is artificial and has led to significant losses of foreign exchange reserve.The paper explains how the new price-setting mechanism works,and identifies the important features of the mechanism and its pros and cons.The paper argues that despite some advantages,the new exchange rate regime as a soft peg regime is not sustainable and the PBoC should stop foreign exchange market intervention as soon as possible.We hope that the PBoC can learn the lessons from the failure of the"August 11 reform"and accomplish the unaccomplished reform in an urgent manner.展开更多
Based on time series data of RMB exchange rate and urban-rural income, this paper makes an empirical study for the influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on urban-rural income by utilizing rolling regression model...Based on time series data of RMB exchange rate and urban-rural income, this paper makes an empirical study for the influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on urban-rural income by utilizing rolling regression model through direct and indirect transmission mechanisms. According to the results, the transmission effect of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on urban-rural income has features of incompleteness and asymmetry. Moreover, RMB appreciation will help to reduce the urban-rural income gap. Therefore, this paper suggests that the Chinese economy should accelerate the course of transforming mode, adjusting structure and promoting development under the new normal. Meanwhile, reform of RMB exchange rate mechanism should be promoted, living standard of residents must be improved, and the urban-rural income gap should be reduced.展开更多
China has maintained RMB exchange rate nearly unchanged since 1998. However, with the relaxation of capital control, a crawling peg, a more flexible RMB exchange rate regime, is inevitable. Based on improving the curr...China has maintained RMB exchange rate nearly unchanged since 1998. However, with the relaxation of capital control, a crawling peg, a more flexible RMB exchange rate regime, is inevitable. Based on improving the current formation mechanism of RMB exchange rate, Chinese government could widen the floating band around the central parity; in the long run, switching the peg from USD alone to a basket of currencies may be a better choice.展开更多
The Chinese currency, the yuan, which was pegged to the value of US dollar in the past, will now be a managed currency. Its value will be set in relation to a basket of currencies. China is taking the first big step t...The Chinese currency, the yuan, which was pegged to the value of US dollar in the past, will now be a managed currency. Its value will be set in relation to a basket of currencies. China is taking the first big step toward a free-floating currency. This analysis explores the impacts on Chinese banking, Chinese companies and international monetary market.展开更多
By creating a labor market dynamic general equilibrium model, this paper derives the pass-through mechanism of exchange rate's employment and wage effects,carries out an empirical study on the employment and wage ...By creating a labor market dynamic general equilibrium model, this paper derives the pass-through mechanism of exchange rate's employment and wage effects,carries out an empirical study on the employment and wage effects of RMB exchange rate for manufacturing sectors in China and the United States based on ridge regression, and examines the role of industry characteristics in this process. Research findings suggest that: RMB depreciation will drive employment and wage growth for most of China's laborintensive manufacturing sectors, and RMB appreciation will increase employment for certain capital-and technology-intensive sectors; but RMB depreciation has insignificant employment and wage effects for most sectors in the US. Hence, in achieving the longterm stability of RMB exchange rate, China should take advantage of RMB appreciation's manufacturing upgrade effect and ensure the steady growth of manufacturing employment.The US should make breakthroughs in various links of its economic development in order to tackle unemployment, instead of blaming RMB exchange rate. In addition, the nature of business activities and trade union characteristic are both significant factors that lead to differences in inter-sector employment levels of Chinese and US manufacturing sectors.Technology characteristic and other monopolistic characteristics exert decisive effects on the difference of wage return for various sectors in China and the US.展开更多
The indicator of social financing scale(SFS)has become a new intermediate target for China’s socioeconomic regulation since 2011,which has a better tracking performance on important economic indicators such as CPI an...The indicator of social financing scale(SFS)has become a new intermediate target for China’s socioeconomic regulation since 2011,which has a better tracking performance on important economic indicators such as CPI and is also the new intermediate target of monetary policy used by China’s central bank to replace M2 at present.So,is there an impact of the social financing scale on another important economic indicator,the RMB exchange rate?This paper conducted an OLS regression analysis of the time series data of social financing scale and the nominal effective exchange rate(NEER)of RMB for a total of 61 months from October 2016 to October 2021 and find that SFS has a significant positive impact on the exchange rate of RMB.This result means that the expansion of SFS will lead to the appreciation of RMB.In addition,the paper fills the research gap on the combination of SFS and RMB exchange rate,and suggests that mechanisms such as monetary policy or domestic interest rates may be responsible for this correlation at the theoretical level.展开更多
Since 2003, there has been a strong RMB appreciation expectation in the market. RMB exchange rate becomes the world focus again. This paper insists that the depreciation pressure of US dollar is the main reason that c...Since 2003, there has been a strong RMB appreciation expectation in the market. RMB exchange rate becomes the world focus again. This paper insists that the depreciation pressure of US dollar is the main reason that causes RMB appreciation expectation; the ＂double price action＂ of the Chinese tradable goods and non-tradable goods is the special reason that leads to RMB appreciation expectation; furthermore, the asymmetric foreign exchange rate management system in China strengthens RMB appreciation expectation.展开更多
文摘In order to aim at improving the forecasting performance of the RMB/USD exchange rate, this paper proposes a new architecture of fuzzy neural networks based on fuzzy logic, and the method of point differential, which guarantees not only the direction of weight correction, but also the needed precision for the BP algorithm. In applying genetic algorithms for optimal performance, this approach, in the forecasting of the RMB/USD real exchange rate from 1994 to 2000, obviously outperforms typical BP Neural Networks and exhibits a higher capacity in regard to nonlinear, time-variablility, and illegibility of the exchange rate.
文摘China is transitioning its industrial structure from labor-and resource-intensive industries that previously contributed significantly to the country’s GDP growth to technology-intensive industries emphasizing a highly-skilled workforce and sustainability to achieve high-quality economic growth.This paper examines the impact of the RMB exchange rate on high-quality economic growth through theoretical modeling and empirical analysis and discusses the variable of overseas education to explore the mechanism of how the RMB exchange rate and overseas education jointly impact high-quality economic growth.The research sample includes the National Bureau of Statistics data on education from 1995 to 2015,the Bank for International Settlements(BIS)data on the RMB exchange rate,and the added value of China’s high-quality economic growth estimated based on the national economy data.An empirical analysis of theoretical expectations was conducted,finding that RMB appreciation could make a positive contribution to China’s high-quality economic growth;RMB exchange rate fluctuations would impact the relative cost of overseas education and overseas returnees could have a positive impact on domestic resource utilization efficiency and domestic capacity to make sci-tech innovations,thereby injecting vitality to high-quality economic growth.This study focuses on both the RMB exchange rate and the population studying abroad,providing additional observation dimensions to existing research.
基金supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(2019CDSKXYGG0042,2018CDXYGG0054,2020CDJSK01HQ01)National Social Science Funds(16CJL007).
文摘With the rapid expansion of the RMB exchange rate’s floating range,the effects of the RMB exchange rate and global commodity price changes on China’s stock prices are likely to increase.This study uses both auto regressive distributed lag(ARDL)and nonlinear ARDL(NARDL)approaches to explore the symmetric and asymmetric effects of the RMB exchange rate and global commodity prices on China’s stock prices.Our findings show that without considering the critical variable of global commodity prices,there is no cointegration relationship between the RMB exchange rate and China’s stock prices,and the coefficient of the RMB exchange rate is not statistically significant.However,when we introduce global commodity prices into the NARDL model,the result shows that the RMB exchange rate has a negative effect on China’s stock prices,that there indeed exists a long-run cointegration relationship among the RMB exchange rate,global commodity prices,and stock prices in the NARDL model,and that global commodity price changes have an asymmetric effect on China’s stock prices in the long run.Specifically,China’s stock prices are more sensitive to increases than decreases in global commodity prices.Thus,increases in global commodity prices cause China’s stock prices to decline sharply.In contrast,the same magnitude of decline in global commodity prices induces a smaller increase in China’s stock prices.
文摘The exchange rate reform initiated on August 11,2015 is an important attempt by the PBoC to transform China's exchange rate regime from the"crawl-like arrangement"to a floating regime.However,after a three-day experiment,the PBoC abandoned the original goal of the reform.Since then,the central bank has implemented a new exchange rate-setting mechanism.Under this mechanism,the central parity of the renminbi(RMB)against the US dollar is decided by the arithmetic average of the RMB exchange rate that keeps the index of a currency basket unchanged over the past 24 hours and the previous day's closing price of USD/CNY.Due to the introduction of the index of a currency basket,additional uncertainty has been introduced into the determination of the RMB exchange rate,because of the uncertainty of the dollar index(USDX).As a result,to a certain extent,the one-way bet on the RMB expectations is weakened.However,the current exchange rate formation mechanism cannot reverse the trend of devaluation of the RMB,nor can it eliminate depreciation expectations.Meanwhile,it hinders the effectiveness of central bank's independent monetary policy based on the domestic economic fundamentals.And also,the"two-way float"created by the new price-setting mechanism is artificial and has led to significant losses of foreign exchange reserve.The paper explains how the new price-setting mechanism works,and identifies the important features of the mechanism and its pros and cons.The paper argues that despite some advantages,the new exchange rate regime as a soft peg regime is not sustainable and the PBoC should stop foreign exchange market intervention as soon as possible.We hope that the PBoC can learn the lessons from the failure of the"August 11 reform"and accomplish the unaccomplished reform in an urgent manner.
文摘Based on time series data of RMB exchange rate and urban-rural income, this paper makes an empirical study for the influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on urban-rural income by utilizing rolling regression model through direct and indirect transmission mechanisms. According to the results, the transmission effect of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on urban-rural income has features of incompleteness and asymmetry. Moreover, RMB appreciation will help to reduce the urban-rural income gap. Therefore, this paper suggests that the Chinese economy should accelerate the course of transforming mode, adjusting structure and promoting development under the new normal. Meanwhile, reform of RMB exchange rate mechanism should be promoted, living standard of residents must be improved, and the urban-rural income gap should be reduced.
文摘China has maintained RMB exchange rate nearly unchanged since 1998. However, with the relaxation of capital control, a crawling peg, a more flexible RMB exchange rate regime, is inevitable. Based on improving the current formation mechanism of RMB exchange rate, Chinese government could widen the floating band around the central parity; in the long run, switching the peg from USD alone to a basket of currencies may be a better choice.
文摘The Chinese currency, the yuan, which was pegged to the value of US dollar in the past, will now be a managed currency. Its value will be set in relation to a basket of currencies. China is taking the first big step toward a free-floating currency. This analysis explores the impacts on Chinese banking, Chinese companies and international monetary market.
文摘By creating a labor market dynamic general equilibrium model, this paper derives the pass-through mechanism of exchange rate's employment and wage effects,carries out an empirical study on the employment and wage effects of RMB exchange rate for manufacturing sectors in China and the United States based on ridge regression, and examines the role of industry characteristics in this process. Research findings suggest that: RMB depreciation will drive employment and wage growth for most of China's laborintensive manufacturing sectors, and RMB appreciation will increase employment for certain capital-and technology-intensive sectors; but RMB depreciation has insignificant employment and wage effects for most sectors in the US. Hence, in achieving the longterm stability of RMB exchange rate, China should take advantage of RMB appreciation's manufacturing upgrade effect and ensure the steady growth of manufacturing employment.The US should make breakthroughs in various links of its economic development in order to tackle unemployment, instead of blaming RMB exchange rate. In addition, the nature of business activities and trade union characteristic are both significant factors that lead to differences in inter-sector employment levels of Chinese and US manufacturing sectors.Technology characteristic and other monopolistic characteristics exert decisive effects on the difference of wage return for various sectors in China and the US.
文摘The indicator of social financing scale(SFS)has become a new intermediate target for China’s socioeconomic regulation since 2011,which has a better tracking performance on important economic indicators such as CPI and is also the new intermediate target of monetary policy used by China’s central bank to replace M2 at present.So,is there an impact of the social financing scale on another important economic indicator,the RMB exchange rate?This paper conducted an OLS regression analysis of the time series data of social financing scale and the nominal effective exchange rate(NEER)of RMB for a total of 61 months from October 2016 to October 2021 and find that SFS has a significant positive impact on the exchange rate of RMB.This result means that the expansion of SFS will lead to the appreciation of RMB.In addition,the paper fills the research gap on the combination of SFS and RMB exchange rate,and suggests that mechanisms such as monetary policy or domestic interest rates may be responsible for this correlation at the theoretical level.
文摘Since 2003, there has been a strong RMB appreciation expectation in the market. RMB exchange rate becomes the world focus again. This paper insists that the depreciation pressure of US dollar is the main reason that causes RMB appreciation expectation; the ＂double price action＂ of the Chinese tradable goods and non-tradable goods is the special reason that leads to RMB appreciation expectation; furthermore, the asymmetric foreign exchange rate management system in China strengthens RMB appreciation expectation.
