流域水文模型是区域水资源评价的重要工具,基于普林斯顿全球气象驱动数据集和澜沧江-湄公河流域(简称:澜湄流域)八个水文站实测资料,分析了澜湄流域不同区间的水文特性,采用RCCC-WBM模型(Water Balance Model developed by Research Cen...流域水文模型是区域水资源评价的重要工具,基于普林斯顿全球气象驱动数据集和澜沧江-湄公河流域(简称:澜湄流域)八个水文站实测资料,分析了澜湄流域不同区间的水文特性,采用RCCC-WBM模型(Water Balance Model developed by Research Center for Climate Change,RCCC-WBM)开展了区间径流及水量平衡模拟研究。结果表明:1)澜湄流域不同区间气候水文差异显著,上游气温低且年内变幅大,下游气温高年内变幅小;尽管不同区间降水、径流的年内分配特征总体一致,但径流的年内分布峰值大多滞后降水峰值一个时段。2)RCCC-WBM模型能够较好地模拟出澜湄流域不同区间的径流过程,率定期和验证期的月径流模拟效率系数(Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency,NSE)均在60%以上,总量模拟误差(Relative Error,RE)也均控制在±10%以内,模型具有较好的区域适应性。3)模拟的土壤含水量都具有先衰减后增加再衰减的年内分配特征;不同季节径流和蒸发耗散的水源不同,降水是汛期水分耗散的主要来源,而土壤含水量是非汛期径流和蒸发消耗的主要水源。展开更多
以黄河源区白河流域为研究对象,采用Mann-Kendall方法分析水文要素的演变特征,利用RCCC-WBM水量平衡模型(monthly water balance model developed by research center for climate change)模拟探究流域生态水文要素对气候变化的敏感性...以黄河源区白河流域为研究对象,采用Mann-Kendall方法分析水文要素的演变特征,利用RCCC-WBM水量平衡模型(monthly water balance model developed by research center for climate change)模拟探究流域生态水文要素对气候变化的敏感性。结果表明:1981-2020年白河流域气温增加趋势显著,气温递升率为0.45℃/(10 a),潜在蒸散发年际变化不明显,而降水和径流呈现先减少后增加的阶段性变化特征;RCCC-WBM水量平衡模型对白河流域具有较好的月尺度径流模拟效果,率定期和验证期的纳什效率系数(Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient,ENS)分别为0.69和0.62;在假定的气候变化情景下,降水量增加40%且气温变化-4~4℃时对应的径流量变化范围为20.2%~84.4%,实际蒸散发量为1.4%~51.0%,即随着降水量的增多,流域气温和蒸散发变化对径流的影响越来越显著。研究结果可为黄河源区的水循环演变规律的揭示提供参考。展开更多
Quantification of the impacts of environmental changes on runoff in the transitional area from the Tibetan Plateau to the Loess Plateau is of critical importance for regional water resources management.Trends and abru...Quantification of the impacts of environmental changes on runoff in the transitional area from the Tibetan Plateau to the Loess Plateau is of critical importance for regional water resources management.Trends and abrupt change points of the hydro-climatic variables in the Tao River Basin were investigated during 1956-2015.It also quantitatively separates the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff change in the Tao River by using RCC-WBM model.Results indicate that temperature presented a significant rising trend(0.2℃per decade)while precipitation exhibited an insignificant decreasing trend(3.8 mm per decade)during 1956-2015.Recorded runoff in the Tao River decreased significantly with a magnitude of-13.7 mm per decade and abrupt changes in 1968 and 1986 were identified.Relative to the baseline period(1956-1968),runoff in the two anthropogenic disturbed periods of 1969-1986 and 1987-2015 decreased by 27.8 mm and 76.5 mm,respectively,which can be attributed to human activities(accounting for 69%)and climate change(accounting for 31%).Human activities are the principal drivers of runoff reduction in the Tao River Basin.However,the absolute influences on runoff reductions by the both drivers tend to increase,from 7.7 mm in 1969-1986 to 24.4 mm in 1987-2015 by climate change and from 20.2 mm to 52.2 mm by human activities.展开更多
文摘流域水文模型是区域水资源评价的重要工具,基于普林斯顿全球气象驱动数据集和澜沧江-湄公河流域(简称:澜湄流域)八个水文站实测资料,分析了澜湄流域不同区间的水文特性,采用RCCC-WBM模型(Water Balance Model developed by Research Center for Climate Change,RCCC-WBM)开展了区间径流及水量平衡模拟研究。结果表明:1)澜湄流域不同区间气候水文差异显著,上游气温低且年内变幅大,下游气温高年内变幅小;尽管不同区间降水、径流的年内分配特征总体一致,但径流的年内分布峰值大多滞后降水峰值一个时段。2)RCCC-WBM模型能够较好地模拟出澜湄流域不同区间的径流过程,率定期和验证期的月径流模拟效率系数(Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency,NSE)均在60%以上,总量模拟误差(Relative Error,RE)也均控制在±10%以内,模型具有较好的区域适应性。3)模拟的土壤含水量都具有先衰减后增加再衰减的年内分配特征;不同季节径流和蒸发耗散的水源不同,降水是汛期水分耗散的主要来源,而土壤含水量是非汛期径流和蒸发消耗的主要水源。
文摘以黄河源区白河流域为研究对象,采用Mann-Kendall方法分析水文要素的演变特征,利用RCCC-WBM水量平衡模型(monthly water balance model developed by research center for climate change)模拟探究流域生态水文要素对气候变化的敏感性。结果表明:1981-2020年白河流域气温增加趋势显著,气温递升率为0.45℃/(10 a),潜在蒸散发年际变化不明显,而降水和径流呈现先减少后增加的阶段性变化特征;RCCC-WBM水量平衡模型对白河流域具有较好的月尺度径流模拟效果,率定期和验证期的纳什效率系数(Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient,ENS)分别为0.69和0.62;在假定的气候变化情景下,降水量增加40%且气温变化-4~4℃时对应的径流量变化范围为20.2%~84.4%,实际蒸散发量为1.4%~51.0%,即随着降水量的增多,流域气温和蒸散发变化对径流的影响越来越显著。研究结果可为黄河源区的水循环演变规律的揭示提供参考。
基金the National Key Research and Development Programs of China(2016YFA0601501)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41830863,51879162,41601025)the Belt and Road Fund on Water and Sustainability of the State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering(2019).
文摘Quantification of the impacts of environmental changes on runoff in the transitional area from the Tibetan Plateau to the Loess Plateau is of critical importance for regional water resources management.Trends and abrupt change points of the hydro-climatic variables in the Tao River Basin were investigated during 1956-2015.It also quantitatively separates the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff change in the Tao River by using RCC-WBM model.Results indicate that temperature presented a significant rising trend(0.2℃per decade)while precipitation exhibited an insignificant decreasing trend(3.8 mm per decade)during 1956-2015.Recorded runoff in the Tao River decreased significantly with a magnitude of-13.7 mm per decade and abrupt changes in 1968 and 1986 were identified.Relative to the baseline period(1956-1968),runoff in the two anthropogenic disturbed periods of 1969-1986 and 1987-2015 decreased by 27.8 mm and 76.5 mm,respectively,which can be attributed to human activities(accounting for 69%)and climate change(accounting for 31%).Human activities are the principal drivers of runoff reduction in the Tao River Basin.However,the absolute influences on runoff reductions by the both drivers tend to increase,from 7.7 mm in 1969-1986 to 24.4 mm in 1987-2015 by climate change and from 20.2 mm to 52.2 mm by human activities.
