Projections of future urban land change are essential for a range of sustainability assessments,including those related to biodiversity loss,carbon emissions,and agricultural land conversion.However,to what extent and...Projections of future urban land change are essential for a range of sustainability assessments,including those related to biodiversity loss,carbon emissions,and agricultural land conversion.However,to what extent and where current projections agree or disagree remains unknown.Here,we systematically compare existing global projections that are consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.We find that the total global urban land area is expected to increase by 112%between 2020 and 2100(averaged across all projections),with a coefficient of variation of 0.81.This variation is mostly caused by the selection of the underlying drivers that are included in the different models.Regionally,the highest average growth rates are found in sub-Saharan Africa(+679%to+730%),while this region also has the highest variation across projections(coefficient of variation ranging from 2.02 to 2.18).When ranking scenarios within a study from the highest to the lowest projected increase in urban land,rankings are relatively similar for regions in the Global North,but not for regions in the Global South.The large disagreement across projections can lead to high uncertainties in assessments of future urban land change impacts,which can undermine the effectiveness of long-term planning,policymaking,and resource management decisions.展开更多
This study provides potential climate projections for Central Asia(CA)based on multi-regional climate model(RCM)outputs from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for Central Asia(CORDEX-CAII).Despit...This study provides potential climate projections for Central Asia(CA)based on multi-regional climate model(RCM)outputs from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for Central Asia(CORDEX-CAII).Despite some systematic biases,all RCMs effectively capture the main features of observed temperature and precipitation means and extremes over CA,with notable variations in model performance due to differences in the driving global climate models and the RCMs themselves.Overall,REMO consistently outperforms ALARO in simulating temperature-related indices,and ALARO-0 provides more accurate simulations for precipitation-related indices,and the multimodel ensemble(MME)tends to outperform individual RCMs.Under the representative concentration pathway(RCP)scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5,the MME results indicate a clear warming trend across CA for all temperature-related indices,except for the diurnal temperature range,with annual temperatures projected to increase by 0.15℃/10 yr and 0.53℃/10 yr,respectively.Both scenarios exhibit similar spatial distributions in projected annual precipitation,characterized by peak increases of~0.2 mm per day in northern CA.The number of consecutive dry days is projected to slightly increase under RCP8.5,while it is expected to slightly decrease under RCP2.6.This study improves our understanding of the applicability of RCMs in CA and provides reliable projections of future climate change.展开更多
Climate models are essential for understanding past,present,and future changes in atmospheric circulation,with circulation modes providing key sources of seasonal predictability and prediction uncertainties for both g...Climate models are essential for understanding past,present,and future changes in atmospheric circulation,with circulation modes providing key sources of seasonal predictability and prediction uncertainties for both global and regional climates.This study assesses the performance of models participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in simulating interannual variability modes of Northern Hemisphere 500-hPa geopotential height during winter and summer,distinguishing predictable(potentially predictable on seasonal or longer timescales)and unpredictable(intraseasonal and essentially unpredictable at long range)components,using reanalysis data and a variance decomposition method.Although most models effectively capture unpredictable modes in reanalysis,their ability to reproduce dominant predictable modes-specifically the Pacific-North American pattern,Arctic Oscillation,and Western Pacific Oscillation in winter,and the East Atlantic and North Atlantic Oscillations in summer-varies notably.An optimal ensemble is identified to distinguish(a)predictable-external modes,dominated by external forcing,and(b)predictable-internal modes,associated with slow internal variability,during the historical period(1950-2014)and the SSP5-8.5 scenario(2036-2100).Under increased radiative forcing,the leading winter/summer predictable-external mode exhibits a more uniform spatial distribution,remarkably larger trend and annual variance,and enhanced height-sea surface temperature(SST)covariance under SSP5-8.5 compared to historical conditions.The dominant winter/summer predictable-internal modes also exhibit increased variance and height-SST covariance under SSP5-8.5,along with localized changes in spatial configuration.Minimal changes are observed in spatial distribution or variance for dominant winter/summer unpredictable modes under SSP5-8.5.This study,from a predictive perspective,deepens our understanding of model uncertainties and projected changes in circulations.展开更多
Objective:This study aimed to analyze the temporal trends in cancer mortality in China from 2013-2021 and project the future trends through 2030.Methods:This study was based on the China Causes of Death Surveillance D...Objective:This study aimed to analyze the temporal trends in cancer mortality in China from 2013-2021 and project the future trends through 2030.Methods:This study was based on the China Causes of Death Surveillance Dataset,which covers 2.37 billion person-years.Age-standardized mortality rates(ASMRs)were calculated using Segi’s world standard population and the trends were evaluated via Joinpoint regression.Bayesian age-period-cohort models were used for mortality projections.Contributions of demographic changes(population size and age structure)and risk factors to the mortality burden were quantified using the decomposition analysis.Results:The combined ASMRs for all cancers decreased annually by 2.3%,driven by significant declines in esophageal(4.8%),stomach(4.5%),and liver cancers(2.7%).In contrast,the pancreatic and prostate cancer ASMRs increased by 2.0% and 3.4% annually,respectively.Urban areas demonstrated a more rapid decline in the combined ASMRs for all cancers[average annual percent change(AAPC)=-3.0% in urban areas vs.-2.0% in rural areas],highlighting persistent disparities.Population aging contributed 20%-50% to death increases between 2013 and 2021.The combined ASMRs for all cancers,like the findings of temporal trend analyses,will continue to decrease and the regional(urban and rural)difference is projected to simulate that of the temporal trend through 2030.In fact,cancer deaths are projected to reach 2.4 million by 2030.Conclusions:The cancer burden in China is facing the dual challenges of population aging and urban-rural disparities.It is necessary to prioritize rural screening,control risk factors,such as smoking and diet,and integrate more efficacious cancer prevention and control programmes into the policy to reduce mortality in the future.展开更多
Estimation and attribution of evapotranspiration(ET)and its components under changing environment is still a challenge but is essential for understanding the mechanisms of water and energy transfer for regional water ...Estimation and attribution of evapotranspiration(ET)and its components under changing environment is still a challenge but is essential for understanding the mechanisms of water and energy transfer for regional water resources management.In this study,an improved hydrological model is developed to estimate evapotranspiration and its components,i.e.,evaporation(E)and transpiration(T)by integrated the advantages of hydrological modeling constrained by water balance and the water-carbon close relationships.Results show that the improved hydrological model could captures ET and its components well in the study region.During the past years,annual ET and E increase obviously about 2.40 and 1.42 mm/a,particularly in spring and summer accounting for 90%.T shows less increasement and mainly increases in spring while it decreases in summer.Precipitation is the dominant factor and contributes 74.1%and 90.0%increases of annual ET and E,while the attribution of T changes is more complex by coupling of the positive effects of precipitation,rising temperature and interactive influences,the negative effects of solar diming and elevated CO_(2).In the future,ET and its components tend to increase under most of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSP)scenarios except for T decreases under the very high emissions scenario(SSP5-8.5)based on the projections.From seasonal perspective,the changes of ET and the components are mainly in spring and summer accounting for 75%,while more slight changes are found in autumn and winter.This study highlights the effectiveness of estimating ET and its components by improving hydrological models within water-carbon coupling relationships,and more complex mechanisms of transpiration changes than evapotranspiration and evaporation changes under the interactive effects of climate variability and vegetation dynamics.Besides,decision makers should pay attention to the more increases in the undesirable E than desirable T.展开更多
Understanding trends in rainfall and temperature projections is critical for assessing climate change impacts,managing water resources,mitigating disaster risks,and guiding sustainable agricultural and infrastructure ...Understanding trends in rainfall and temperature projections is critical for assessing climate change impacts,managing water resources,mitigating disaster risks,and guiding sustainable agricultural and infrastructure planning.This study investigates projected changes in temperature and rainfall in the Upper Bernam River Basin(UBRB),Malaysia,using ten Global Climate Models(GCMs)from CMIP6 across four scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,SSP370,and SSP585).Downscaling was conducted with the Climate-Smart Decision Support System(CSDSS)for the baseline period(1985-2014)and for future periods:2020s,2040s,2060s,and 2080s.Results indicate a consistent warming trend,with maximum temperatures projected to increase from 1.4℃(2020s,SSP126)to 4.66℃(2080s,SSP585),and minimum temperatures from 1.97℃ to 5.70℃ over the same period and scenarios.Rainfall projections reveal high variability and inter-scenario uncertainty,with average monthly rainfall changes ranging from−17.6%(2020s,SSP585)to+6.6%(2080s,SSP370).Extremes analysis shows intensifying wet and dry spells,with 95th percentile rainfall rising to 7.87% and significant increases in 90th percentile temperatures,reaching nearly 20%under SSP585 by 2080s.Seasonal shifts include reduced rainfall from January to April and potential increases in main-season(July-August)flooding.These findings highlight the importance of adaptive strategies such as flood control,off-season(January-June)water storage,and climate-resilient infrastructure.The study underscores inter-scenario uncertainties and provides critical insights for climate-resilient water resource planning and disaster risk mitigation in UBRB.展开更多
China and Laos are close neighbors with a long-standing friendship.Since the early 2000s,China has supported Laos'economic and social development through wide-ranging cooperation projects,all guided by the vision ...China and Laos are close neighbors with a long-standing friendship.Since the early 2000s,China has supported Laos'economic and social development through wide-ranging cooperation projects,all guided by the vision of a community with a shared future.As this vision takes deeper root,many aid projects have moved from blueprint to reality,delivering tangible benefits across towns and villages and improving the lives of ordinary Lao people while further strengthening bilateral ties.展开更多
当下,小学英语板块教学存在活动形式单一化、探究活动浅表化等问题,综合育人价值未能完全发挥。为改变这一现状,文章以人教版英语(PEP)四年级上册Unit 1“Helping at home”的“Project:Make a poster of a happy family”为例,以项目...当下,小学英语板块教学存在活动形式单一化、探究活动浅表化等问题,综合育人价值未能完全发挥。为改变这一现状,文章以人教版英语(PEP)四年级上册Unit 1“Helping at home”的“Project:Make a poster of a happy family”为例,以项目化学习为支架,围绕项目设计、过程实施、评价反馈、成果展示等维度探究有效教学策略,旨在优化Project板块的教学模式,引导学生在项目化学习中提升语言运用能力和综合实践能力。展开更多
Accurate fission cross-sectional data for actinide nuclides are critical for nuclear energy,astrophysics,and defense applications.Traditional detectors,such as fission chambers,face limitations in achieving sub-3% unc...Accurate fission cross-sectional data for actinide nuclides are critical for nuclear energy,astrophysics,and defense applications.Traditional detectors,such as fission chambers,face limitations in achieving sub-3% uncertainty owing to particle identification challenges and dynamic range constraints.The time projection chamber(TPC)can record both the energy deposition dE/dx and the three-dimensional track of an event,providing the ability to identify particles and fission fragments.Based on this characteristic,we developed a novel TPC,INPC-TPC,featuring a symmetrical dual-chamber structure and gas electron multiplier(GEM)-based readout technology.The dual-chamber design isolates fission fragments and recoils protons,thereby reducing the dynamic range requirements of a single chamber,whereas the GEM ensures high spatial resolution and stable gain.Experiments conducted at the Chinese Spallation Neutron Source(CSNS)Back-n white neutron beamline validated the performance of the proposed detector.The INPC-TPC demonstrated effective fission fragment identification through particle energy-length correlation measurements and accurately measured the neutron beam spot size with a diameter relative error of<2%.The results highlight the capability of the system to achieve high-precision measurements of neutroninduced fission cross sections,particularly for ^(235)U and ^(238)U.展开更多
The Antarctic Tianmu Staring Observation Project(ATSOP)entails the deployment of 30 small-aperture,wide-field optical telescopes in the Antarctic region.The system will perform long-term continuous observation campaig...The Antarctic Tianmu Staring Observation Project(ATSOP)entails the deployment of 30 small-aperture,wide-field optical telescopes in the Antarctic region.The system will perform long-term continuous observation campaigns over a period of 100 d(24 h per day)per year,as well as short-time-scale sampling at intervals of 5 min,across a sky area of approximately 1200 square degrees centered near the south celestial pole.We have assessed the types of small solar system bodies detectable by the ATSOP telescopes,as well as the associated scientific research opportunities.Our analysis indicates that the ATSOP is capable of detecting near-Earth objects(NEOs)with all orbital inclinations,as well as high-inclination small bodies located beyond the main asteroid belt.Potential research topics include the discovery and identification of small bodies,orbit determination,physical characterization,investigation into the activity characteristics and evolutionary patterns of active small bodies,and studies on their dynamical evolution.Observations of NEOs can also contribute to planetary defense efforts.On the basis of pilot observational data collected by the Antarctic Tianmu prototype(AT-Proto)between February 20 and October 26,2023,a total of 478 asteroids and 9 comets were successfully identified,demonstrating the effectiveness of the ATSOP system in observing small solar system bodies.Looking ahead,with anticipated performance enhancements in the second-generation AT-Proto,the limiting magnitude will increase from 16 to 18,thereby enabling the detection of an even greater number of small solar system bodies.展开更多
Objective expertise evaluation of individuals,as a prerequisite stage for team formation,has been a long-term desideratum in large software development companies.With the rapid advancements in machine learning methods...Objective expertise evaluation of individuals,as a prerequisite stage for team formation,has been a long-term desideratum in large software development companies.With the rapid advancements in machine learning methods,based on reliable existing data stored in project management tools’datasets,automating this evaluation process becomes a natural step forward.In this context,our approach focuses on quantifying software developer expertise by using metadata from the task-tracking systems.For this,we mathematically formalize two categories of expertise:technology-specific expertise,which denotes the skills required for a particular technology,and general expertise,which encapsulates overall knowledge in the software industry.Afterward,we automatically classify the zones of expertise associated with each task a developer has worked on using Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers(BERT)-like transformers to handle the unique characteristics of project tool datasets effectively.Finally,our method evaluates the proficiency of each software specialist across already completed projects from both technology-specific and general perspectives.The method was experimentally validated,yielding promising results.展开更多
The global monsoon system,encompassing the Asian-Australian,African,and American monsoons,sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture.Monsoon anomalies pose severe risk...The global monsoon system,encompassing the Asian-Australian,African,and American monsoons,sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture.Monsoon anomalies pose severe risks,including floods and droughts.Recent research associated with the implementation of the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project under the umbrella of CMIP6 has advanced our understanding of its historical variability and driving mechanisms.Observational data reveal a 20th-century shift:increased rainfall pre-1950s,followed by aridification and partial recovery post-1980s,driven by both internal variability(e.g.,Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation)and external forcings(greenhouse gases,aerosols),while ENSO drives interannual variability through ocean-atmosphere interactions.Future projections under greenhouse forcing suggest long-term monsoon intensification,though regional disparities and model uncertainties persist.Models indicate robust trends but struggle to quantify extremes,where thermodynamic effects(warming-induced moisture rise)uniformly boost heavy rainfall,while dynamical shifts(circulation changes)create spatial heterogeneity.Volcanic eruptions and proposed solar radiation modification(SRM)further complicate predictions:tropical eruptions suppress monsoons,whereas high-latitude events alter cross-equatorial flows,highlighting unresolved feedbacks.The emergent constraint approach is booming in terms of correcting future projections and reducing uncertainty with respect to the global monsoons.Critical challenges remain.Model biases and sparse 20th-century observational data hinder accurate attribution.The interplay between natural variability and anthropogenic forcings,along with nonlinear extreme precipitation risks under warming,demands deeper mechanistic insights.Additionally,SRM’s regional impacts and hemispheric monsoon interactions require systematic evaluation.Addressing these gaps necessitates enhanced observational networks,refined climate models,and interdisciplinary efforts to disentangle multiscale drivers,ultimately improving resilience strategies for monsoon-dependent regions.展开更多
Understanding how ecological engineering influences the trade-offs and synergies among regional ecosystem services can provide valuable insights for enhancing ecosystem functionality and promoting a virtuous and susta...Understanding how ecological engineering influences the trade-offs and synergies among regional ecosystem services can provide valuable insights for enhancing ecosystem functionality and promoting a virtuous and sustainable ecological cycle.This study focuses on the Changbai Mountain region,a key ecological conservation area in northeastern China.It employs global spatial autocorrelation analysis and bivariate spatial correlation methods to explore the spatial patterns of five key ecosystem services—soil retention,carbon sequestration,water purification,habitat quality,and water yield—as well as the spatial heterogeneity of the trade-offs and synergies among them.The results indicate that:(1)Forest land is the dominant land-use type in the study area,with land-use changes primarily occurring among grassland,forest,and cropland.(2)The implementation of the“Mountain-River Project”has significantly enhanced ecosystem service capacities.Specifically,the average habitat quality has remained stable at 0.97;average water yield increased from 716 mm to 743 mm;average nitrogen purification rose from 0.025 to 0.028;and total soil retention increased from 8.7×10^(7)tons to 5.09×10^(8)tons.(3)Synergistic relationships dominate the interactions among individual ecosystem services in the Changbai Mountain region.The implementation of ecological engineering has further strengthened synergies—particularly among soil retention,water yield,and other services.However,the short-term impacts of the project have somewhat weakened the synergies between water purification and other ecosystem services.These findings offer a novel perspective for understanding the effects of ecological engineering on ecosystem services and provide a scientific basis for future ecological restoration planning and management.展开更多
Andrew Wangota,a 48-year-old Ugandan farmer,has been using agrivoltaics technology,a solar technology that uses agricultural land for both food production and solar power generation,on his farm in Bunashimolo Parish,B...Andrew Wangota,a 48-year-old Ugandan farmer,has been using agrivoltaics technology,a solar technology that uses agricultural land for both food production and solar power generation,on his farm in Bunashimolo Parish,Bukyiende Subcounty in Uganda where he has been cultivating plantain,coffee and Irish potatoes for the past 16 years.展开更多
Dear Editor,Serotonin(5-HT),a pivotal neuromodulator,plays a central role in the social impairments characteristic of autism spectrum disorder(ASD).Clinical evidence reveals elevated blood 5-HT levels and reduced sero...Dear Editor,Serotonin(5-HT),a pivotal neuromodulator,plays a central role in the social impairments characteristic of autism spectrum disorder(ASD).Clinical evidence reveals elevated blood 5-HT levels and reduced serotonin transporter(5-HTT)availability in ASD patients[1],implicating serotonergic dysregulation in social behavior.展开更多
A veteran materials engineer and NPC deputy has spent 30 years developing aluminum alloys for strategic national projects,while championing industrial upgrading and skills development for China’s manufacturing transf...A veteran materials engineer and NPC deputy has spent 30 years developing aluminum alloys for strategic national projects,while championing industrial upgrading and skills development for China’s manufacturing transformation.展开更多
基金supported by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research NWO in the form of a VIDI grant(Grant No.VI.Vidi.198.008).
文摘Projections of future urban land change are essential for a range of sustainability assessments,including those related to biodiversity loss,carbon emissions,and agricultural land conversion.However,to what extent and where current projections agree or disagree remains unknown.Here,we systematically compare existing global projections that are consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.We find that the total global urban land area is expected to increase by 112%between 2020 and 2100(averaged across all projections),with a coefficient of variation of 0.81.This variation is mostly caused by the selection of the underlying drivers that are included in the different models.Regionally,the highest average growth rates are found in sub-Saharan Africa(+679%to+730%),while this region also has the highest variation across projections(coefficient of variation ranging from 2.02 to 2.18).When ranking scenarios within a study from the highest to the lowest projected increase in urban land,rankings are relatively similar for regions in the Global North,but not for regions in the Global South.The large disagreement across projections can lead to high uncertainties in assessments of future urban land change impacts,which can undermine the effectiveness of long-term planning,policymaking,and resource management decisions.
基金jointly supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program[grant number 2019QZKK0103]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 42293294]the China Meteorological Administration Climate Change Special Program[grant number QBZ202303]。
文摘This study provides potential climate projections for Central Asia(CA)based on multi-regional climate model(RCM)outputs from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for Central Asia(CORDEX-CAII).Despite some systematic biases,all RCMs effectively capture the main features of observed temperature and precipitation means and extremes over CA,with notable variations in model performance due to differences in the driving global climate models and the RCMs themselves.Overall,REMO consistently outperforms ALARO in simulating temperature-related indices,and ALARO-0 provides more accurate simulations for precipitation-related indices,and the multimodel ensemble(MME)tends to outperform individual RCMs.Under the representative concentration pathway(RCP)scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5,the MME results indicate a clear warming trend across CA for all temperature-related indices,except for the diurnal temperature range,with annual temperatures projected to increase by 0.15℃/10 yr and 0.53℃/10 yr,respectively.Both scenarios exhibit similar spatial distributions in projected annual precipitation,characterized by peak increases of~0.2 mm per day in northern CA.The number of consecutive dry days is projected to slightly increase under RCP8.5,while it is expected to slightly decrease under RCP2.6.This study improves our understanding of the applicability of RCMs in CA and provides reliable projections of future climate change.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U2342210 and 42275043)the National Institute of Natural Hazards,Ministry of Emergency Management of China(Grant Nos.J2223806,ZDJ2024-25 and ZDJ2025-34)。
文摘Climate models are essential for understanding past,present,and future changes in atmospheric circulation,with circulation modes providing key sources of seasonal predictability and prediction uncertainties for both global and regional climates.This study assesses the performance of models participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in simulating interannual variability modes of Northern Hemisphere 500-hPa geopotential height during winter and summer,distinguishing predictable(potentially predictable on seasonal or longer timescales)and unpredictable(intraseasonal and essentially unpredictable at long range)components,using reanalysis data and a variance decomposition method.Although most models effectively capture unpredictable modes in reanalysis,their ability to reproduce dominant predictable modes-specifically the Pacific-North American pattern,Arctic Oscillation,and Western Pacific Oscillation in winter,and the East Atlantic and North Atlantic Oscillations in summer-varies notably.An optimal ensemble is identified to distinguish(a)predictable-external modes,dominated by external forcing,and(b)predictable-internal modes,associated with slow internal variability,during the historical period(1950-2014)and the SSP5-8.5 scenario(2036-2100).Under increased radiative forcing,the leading winter/summer predictable-external mode exhibits a more uniform spatial distribution,remarkably larger trend and annual variance,and enhanced height-sea surface temperature(SST)covariance under SSP5-8.5 compared to historical conditions.The dominant winter/summer predictable-internal modes also exhibit increased variance and height-SST covariance under SSP5-8.5,along with localized changes in spatial configuration.Minimal changes are observed in spatial distribution or variance for dominant winter/summer unpredictable modes under SSP5-8.5.This study,from a predictive perspective,deepens our understanding of model uncertainties and projected changes in circulations.
基金supported by the CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences(Grant No.2021-I2M-1-011)the Capital’s Funds for Health Improvement and Research(Grant No.CFH2024-2G-40214).
文摘Objective:This study aimed to analyze the temporal trends in cancer mortality in China from 2013-2021 and project the future trends through 2030.Methods:This study was based on the China Causes of Death Surveillance Dataset,which covers 2.37 billion person-years.Age-standardized mortality rates(ASMRs)were calculated using Segi’s world standard population and the trends were evaluated via Joinpoint regression.Bayesian age-period-cohort models were used for mortality projections.Contributions of demographic changes(population size and age structure)and risk factors to the mortality burden were quantified using the decomposition analysis.Results:The combined ASMRs for all cancers decreased annually by 2.3%,driven by significant declines in esophageal(4.8%),stomach(4.5%),and liver cancers(2.7%).In contrast,the pancreatic and prostate cancer ASMRs increased by 2.0% and 3.4% annually,respectively.Urban areas demonstrated a more rapid decline in the combined ASMRs for all cancers[average annual percent change(AAPC)=-3.0% in urban areas vs.-2.0% in rural areas],highlighting persistent disparities.Population aging contributed 20%-50% to death increases between 2013 and 2021.The combined ASMRs for all cancers,like the findings of temporal trend analyses,will continue to decrease and the regional(urban and rural)difference is projected to simulate that of the temporal trend through 2030.In fact,cancer deaths are projected to reach 2.4 million by 2030.Conclusions:The cancer burden in China is facing the dual challenges of population aging and urban-rural disparities.It is necessary to prioritize rural screening,control risk factors,such as smoking and diet,and integrate more efficacious cancer prevention and control programmes into the policy to reduce mortality in the future.
基金supported by the Chongqing Natural Science Foundation Innovation-Driven Development Joint Funds(No.CSTB2025NSCQ-LZX0055)the Youth Innovation Promotion Association,CAS(No.2021385)+4 种基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of South-Central Minzu University(No.CZQ24028)the Hubei Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China(No.2023AFB782)the Program of China Scholarship Council(No.202407780001)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51809008)the Fund for Academic Innovation Teams of South-Central Minzu University(No.XTZ24019).
文摘Estimation and attribution of evapotranspiration(ET)and its components under changing environment is still a challenge but is essential for understanding the mechanisms of water and energy transfer for regional water resources management.In this study,an improved hydrological model is developed to estimate evapotranspiration and its components,i.e.,evaporation(E)and transpiration(T)by integrated the advantages of hydrological modeling constrained by water balance and the water-carbon close relationships.Results show that the improved hydrological model could captures ET and its components well in the study region.During the past years,annual ET and E increase obviously about 2.40 and 1.42 mm/a,particularly in spring and summer accounting for 90%.T shows less increasement and mainly increases in spring while it decreases in summer.Precipitation is the dominant factor and contributes 74.1%and 90.0%increases of annual ET and E,while the attribution of T changes is more complex by coupling of the positive effects of precipitation,rising temperature and interactive influences,the negative effects of solar diming and elevated CO_(2).In the future,ET and its components tend to increase under most of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSP)scenarios except for T decreases under the very high emissions scenario(SSP5-8.5)based on the projections.From seasonal perspective,the changes of ET and the components are mainly in spring and summer accounting for 75%,while more slight changes are found in autumn and winter.This study highlights the effectiveness of estimating ET and its components by improving hydrological models within water-carbon coupling relationships,and more complex mechanisms of transpiration changes than evapotranspiration and evaporation changes under the interactive effects of climate variability and vegetation dynamics.Besides,decision makers should pay attention to the more increases in the undesirable E than desirable T.
基金funded by the Petroleum Technology Development Fund(PTDF),the Federal Republic of Nigeria(Grant No.PTDF/ED/OSS/PHD/MDZ/1726/20).
文摘Understanding trends in rainfall and temperature projections is critical for assessing climate change impacts,managing water resources,mitigating disaster risks,and guiding sustainable agricultural and infrastructure planning.This study investigates projected changes in temperature and rainfall in the Upper Bernam River Basin(UBRB),Malaysia,using ten Global Climate Models(GCMs)from CMIP6 across four scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,SSP370,and SSP585).Downscaling was conducted with the Climate-Smart Decision Support System(CSDSS)for the baseline period(1985-2014)and for future periods:2020s,2040s,2060s,and 2080s.Results indicate a consistent warming trend,with maximum temperatures projected to increase from 1.4℃(2020s,SSP126)to 4.66℃(2080s,SSP585),and minimum temperatures from 1.97℃ to 5.70℃ over the same period and scenarios.Rainfall projections reveal high variability and inter-scenario uncertainty,with average monthly rainfall changes ranging from−17.6%(2020s,SSP585)to+6.6%(2080s,SSP370).Extremes analysis shows intensifying wet and dry spells,with 95th percentile rainfall rising to 7.87% and significant increases in 90th percentile temperatures,reaching nearly 20%under SSP585 by 2080s.Seasonal shifts include reduced rainfall from January to April and potential increases in main-season(July-August)flooding.These findings highlight the importance of adaptive strategies such as flood control,off-season(January-June)water storage,and climate-resilient infrastructure.The study underscores inter-scenario uncertainties and provides critical insights for climate-resilient water resource planning and disaster risk mitigation in UBRB.
基金supported by the Yunnan Provincial Philosophy and Social Science Planning Projectthe Yunnan Academy of Social Sciences。
文摘China and Laos are close neighbors with a long-standing friendship.Since the early 2000s,China has supported Laos'economic and social development through wide-ranging cooperation projects,all guided by the vision of a community with a shared future.As this vision takes deeper root,many aid projects have moved from blueprint to reality,delivering tangible benefits across towns and villages and improving the lives of ordinary Lao people while further strengthening bilateral ties.
文摘当下,小学英语板块教学存在活动形式单一化、探究活动浅表化等问题,综合育人价值未能完全发挥。为改变这一现状,文章以人教版英语(PEP)四年级上册Unit 1“Helping at home”的“Project:Make a poster of a happy family”为例,以项目化学习为支架,围绕项目设计、过程实施、评价反馈、成果展示等维度探究有效教学策略,旨在优化Project板块的教学模式,引导学生在项目化学习中提升语言运用能力和综合实践能力。
基金supported by the auspices of the Youth Doctoral Talent Incubation Program of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Army Medical University(No.2024YQB060)。
文摘Accurate fission cross-sectional data for actinide nuclides are critical for nuclear energy,astrophysics,and defense applications.Traditional detectors,such as fission chambers,face limitations in achieving sub-3% uncertainty owing to particle identification challenges and dynamic range constraints.The time projection chamber(TPC)can record both the energy deposition dE/dx and the three-dimensional track of an event,providing the ability to identify particles and fission fragments.Based on this characteristic,we developed a novel TPC,INPC-TPC,featuring a symmetrical dual-chamber structure and gas electron multiplier(GEM)-based readout technology.The dual-chamber design isolates fission fragments and recoils protons,thereby reducing the dynamic range requirements of a single chamber,whereas the GEM ensures high spatial resolution and stable gain.Experiments conducted at the Chinese Spallation Neutron Source(CSNS)Back-n white neutron beamline validated the performance of the proposed detector.The INPC-TPC demonstrated effective fission fragment identification through particle energy-length correlation measurements and accurately measured the neutron beam spot size with a diameter relative error of<2%.The results highlight the capability of the system to achieve high-precision measurements of neutroninduced fission cross sections,particularly for ^(235)U and ^(238)U.
基金supported by the Operation,Maintenance and Upgrading Fund for Astronomical Telescopes and Facility Instruments,budgeted by the Ministry of Finance of China(MOF)and administered by the Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS),the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.12173093 and 11973094)a science research grant from the China Manned Space Project(No.CMS-CSST-2021-B08).
文摘The Antarctic Tianmu Staring Observation Project(ATSOP)entails the deployment of 30 small-aperture,wide-field optical telescopes in the Antarctic region.The system will perform long-term continuous observation campaigns over a period of 100 d(24 h per day)per year,as well as short-time-scale sampling at intervals of 5 min,across a sky area of approximately 1200 square degrees centered near the south celestial pole.We have assessed the types of small solar system bodies detectable by the ATSOP telescopes,as well as the associated scientific research opportunities.Our analysis indicates that the ATSOP is capable of detecting near-Earth objects(NEOs)with all orbital inclinations,as well as high-inclination small bodies located beyond the main asteroid belt.Potential research topics include the discovery and identification of small bodies,orbit determination,physical characterization,investigation into the activity characteristics and evolutionary patterns of active small bodies,and studies on their dynamical evolution.Observations of NEOs can also contribute to planetary defense efforts.On the basis of pilot observational data collected by the Antarctic Tianmu prototype(AT-Proto)between February 20 and October 26,2023,a total of 478 asteroids and 9 comets were successfully identified,demonstrating the effectiveness of the ATSOP system in observing small solar system bodies.Looking ahead,with anticipated performance enhancements in the second-generation AT-Proto,the limiting magnitude will increase from 16 to 18,thereby enabling the detection of an even greater number of small solar system bodies.
基金supported by the project“Romanian Hub for Artificial Intelligence-HRIA”,Smart Growth,Digitization and Financial Instruments Program,2021–2027,MySMIS No.334906.
文摘Objective expertise evaluation of individuals,as a prerequisite stage for team formation,has been a long-term desideratum in large software development companies.With the rapid advancements in machine learning methods,based on reliable existing data stored in project management tools’datasets,automating this evaluation process becomes a natural step forward.In this context,our approach focuses on quantifying software developer expertise by using metadata from the task-tracking systems.For this,we mathematically formalize two categories of expertise:technology-specific expertise,which denotes the skills required for a particular technology,and general expertise,which encapsulates overall knowledge in the software industry.Afterward,we automatically classify the zones of expertise associated with each task a developer has worked on using Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers(BERT)-like transformers to handle the unique characteristics of project tool datasets effectively.Finally,our method evaluates the proficiency of each software specialist across already completed projects from both technology-specific and general perspectives.The method was experimentally validated,yielding promising results.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2020YFA0608904)the International Partnership Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant Nos.060GJHZ2023079GC and 134111KYSB20160031)+1 种基金supported by the Office of Science,U.S.Department of Energy(DOE)Biological and Environmental Research as part of the Regional and Global Model Analysis program area through the Water Cycle and Climate Extremes Modeling(WACCEM)scientific focus areaoperated for DOE by Battelle Memorial Institute under contract DE-AC05-76RL01830。
文摘The global monsoon system,encompassing the Asian-Australian,African,and American monsoons,sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture.Monsoon anomalies pose severe risks,including floods and droughts.Recent research associated with the implementation of the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project under the umbrella of CMIP6 has advanced our understanding of its historical variability and driving mechanisms.Observational data reveal a 20th-century shift:increased rainfall pre-1950s,followed by aridification and partial recovery post-1980s,driven by both internal variability(e.g.,Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation)and external forcings(greenhouse gases,aerosols),while ENSO drives interannual variability through ocean-atmosphere interactions.Future projections under greenhouse forcing suggest long-term monsoon intensification,though regional disparities and model uncertainties persist.Models indicate robust trends but struggle to quantify extremes,where thermodynamic effects(warming-induced moisture rise)uniformly boost heavy rainfall,while dynamical shifts(circulation changes)create spatial heterogeneity.Volcanic eruptions and proposed solar radiation modification(SRM)further complicate predictions:tropical eruptions suppress monsoons,whereas high-latitude events alter cross-equatorial flows,highlighting unresolved feedbacks.The emergent constraint approach is booming in terms of correcting future projections and reducing uncertainty with respect to the global monsoons.Critical challenges remain.Model biases and sparse 20th-century observational data hinder accurate attribution.The interplay between natural variability and anthropogenic forcings,along with nonlinear extreme precipitation risks under warming,demands deeper mechanistic insights.Additionally,SRM’s regional impacts and hemispheric monsoon interactions require systematic evaluation.Addressing these gaps necessitates enhanced observational networks,refined climate models,and interdisciplinary efforts to disentangle multiscale drivers,ultimately improving resilience strategies for monsoon-dependent regions.
基金supported by the coupling mechanism and system restoration modes of Mountains-Rivers-Forests-Farmlands-Lakes-Grasslands,National Key Research and Development Program of the 14th Five-Year,China(2022YFF1303201).
文摘Understanding how ecological engineering influences the trade-offs and synergies among regional ecosystem services can provide valuable insights for enhancing ecosystem functionality and promoting a virtuous and sustainable ecological cycle.This study focuses on the Changbai Mountain region,a key ecological conservation area in northeastern China.It employs global spatial autocorrelation analysis and bivariate spatial correlation methods to explore the spatial patterns of five key ecosystem services—soil retention,carbon sequestration,water purification,habitat quality,and water yield—as well as the spatial heterogeneity of the trade-offs and synergies among them.The results indicate that:(1)Forest land is the dominant land-use type in the study area,with land-use changes primarily occurring among grassland,forest,and cropland.(2)The implementation of the“Mountain-River Project”has significantly enhanced ecosystem service capacities.Specifically,the average habitat quality has remained stable at 0.97;average water yield increased from 716 mm to 743 mm;average nitrogen purification rose from 0.025 to 0.028;and total soil retention increased from 8.7×10^(7)tons to 5.09×10^(8)tons.(3)Synergistic relationships dominate the interactions among individual ecosystem services in the Changbai Mountain region.The implementation of ecological engineering has further strengthened synergies—particularly among soil retention,water yield,and other services.However,the short-term impacts of the project have somewhat weakened the synergies between water purification and other ecosystem services.These findings offer a novel perspective for understanding the effects of ecological engineering on ecosystem services and provide a scientific basis for future ecological restoration planning and management.
文摘Andrew Wangota,a 48-year-old Ugandan farmer,has been using agrivoltaics technology,a solar technology that uses agricultural land for both food production and solar power generation,on his farm in Bunashimolo Parish,Bukyiende Subcounty in Uganda where he has been cultivating plantain,coffee and Irish potatoes for the past 16 years.
基金supported by Research Center for Brain Cognition and Human Development,Guangdong,China(2024B0303390003)Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2023A1515010477)+4 种基金the National Social Science Foundation of China(20&ZD296,CH)Key-Area Research and Development Program of Guangdong Province(2019B030335001)Special Funds for the Cultivation of Guangdong College Students’Scientific and Technological Innovation(“Climbing Program”Special Funds pdjh2024b118)Autism Research Special Fund of Zhejiang Foundation For Disabled Persons(2023003)Scientific Research Innovation Project of Graduate School of South China Normal University(43204021,RZ&CH).
文摘Dear Editor,Serotonin(5-HT),a pivotal neuromodulator,plays a central role in the social impairments characteristic of autism spectrum disorder(ASD).Clinical evidence reveals elevated blood 5-HT levels and reduced serotonin transporter(5-HTT)availability in ASD patients[1],implicating serotonergic dysregulation in social behavior.
文摘A veteran materials engineer and NPC deputy has spent 30 years developing aluminum alloys for strategic national projects,while championing industrial upgrading and skills development for China’s manufacturing transformation.
