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Critical discharge at Datong for controlling operation of South-to-North Water Transfer Project in dry seasons 被引量:3
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作者 Wang Yigang Huang Huiming Li Xi 《Water Science and Engineering》 EI CAS 2008年第2期47-58,共12页
Previous research shows that there is a strong correlation between saltwater intrusion in the Yangtze Estuary and discharge at Datong. In the near future, the discharge of the Yangtze River during dry seasons will dec... Previous research shows that there is a strong correlation between saltwater intrusion in the Yangtze Estuary and discharge at Datong. In the near future, the discharge of the Yangtze River during dry seasons will decrease due to the construction and operation of large water diversion projects, including the South-to-North Water Transfer Project, which will further exacerbate saltwater intrusion in the estuary. In this paper, a nested 1D river network model and a 2D saltwater numerical model are used to associate saltwater intrusion in the Yangtze Estuary with different values of discharge at Datong. It is concluded that 13 000 m3/s is the critical discharge at Datong for preventing saltwater intrusion and controlling the volume of water transferred by the South-to-North Water Transfer Project. Furthermore, based on the analysis of river discharge from Datong to Xuliujing and in consideration of the influence of all of the water diversion projects, operation schemes are proposed for the Eastern Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project for different hydrological years. 展开更多
关键词 saltwater intrusion critical discharge at Datong water diversion the south-to-north water transfer project
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Evolution trend of the water quality in Dongping Lake after South-North Water Transfer Project in China 被引量:3
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作者 HU Zun-fang KANG Feng-xin +4 位作者 ZOU An-de YU Lin-song LI Yang TIAN Tong-liang KANG Gui-ling 《Journal of Groundwater Science and Engineering》 2019年第4期333-339,共7页
To investigate the evolution trend of water quality in Dongping Lake after South-North Water Transfer Project operation as well as to ensure the safe usage of the water receiving areas, water samples were collected an... To investigate the evolution trend of water quality in Dongping Lake after South-North Water Transfer Project operation as well as to ensure the safe usage of the water receiving areas, water samples were collected and determined before and after water delivery in different hydrological seasons. Then, comprehensive pollution index method, comprehensive nutrition state index method and health risk assessment model were utilized to evaluate the quality, nutrition, and health risk of Dongping Lake water. Results showed that the quality of Dongping Lake water still met level Ⅲ (light pollution) no matter before or after water delivery. The nutrition state was improved from light eutropher before water delivery to mesotropher after water delivery. The health risk level was reduced from high-medium before water delivery to medium level after water delivery. In summary, the operation of the eastern route of South-North Water Transfer Project is beneficial for water environment improvement of Dongping Lake. 展开更多
关键词 south-north water transfer project Dongping LAKE water quality NUTRITION Health risk
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Forecasting Loss of Ecosystem Service Value Using a BP Network: A Case Study of the Impact of the South-to-north Water Transfer Project on the Ecological Environmental in Xiangfan, Hubei Province, China 被引量:1
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作者 YUN-FENG CHEN, JING-XUAN ZHOU, JIE XIAO, AND YAN-PING LIEnvironmental Science and Engineering College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, Hubei, China 《Biomedical and Environmental Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2003年第4期379-391,共13页
Objective To recognize and assess the impact of the South-to-north Water Transfer Project (SNWTP) on the ecological environment of Xiangfan, Hubei Province, situated in the water-out area, and develop sound scientific... Objective To recognize and assess the impact of the South-to-north Water Transfer Project (SNWTP) on the ecological environment of Xiangfan, Hubei Province, situated in the water-out area, and develop sound scientific countermeasures. Methods A three-layer BP network was built to simulate topology and process of the eco-economy system of Xiangfan. Historical data of ecological environmental factors and socio-economic factors as inputs, and corresponding historical data of ecosystem service value (ESV) and GDP as target outputs, were presented to train and test the network. When predicted input data after 2001 were presented to trained network as generalization sets, ESVs and GDPs of 2002, 2003, 2004... till 2050 were simulated as output in succession. Results Up to 2050, the area would have suffered an accumulative total ESV loss of RMB 104.9 billion, which accounted for 37.36% of the present ESV. The coinstantaneous GDP would change asynchronously with ESV, it would go through an up-to-down process and finally lose RMB89.3 billion, which accounted for 18.71% of 2001. Conclusions The simulation indicates that ESV loss means damage to the capability of socio-economic sustainable development, and suggests that artificial neural networks (ANNs) provide a feasible and effective method and have an important potential in ESV modeling. 展开更多
关键词 Artificial neural network BP Ecosystem service value south-to-north water transfer project
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Geological conditions and key rock mechanics issues in the Western Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project 被引量:2
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作者 XuechaoWang 《Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering》 SCIE 2011年第3期234-243,共10页
In terms of special geological conditions of the Western Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project, the classification method for surrounding rocks is discussed by combining with the construction method of tunnel... In terms of special geological conditions of the Western Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project, the classification method for surrounding rocks is discussed by combining with the construction method of tunnel boring machine (TBM). The classification standard of surrounding rocks is put forward on the basis of physical simulations and engineering practices. Damage, deformation and evolution of surrounding rocks induced by TBM excavation are discussed. Meanwhile, the long-term deformation mechanisms and stability of surrounding rocks are also studied. On this basis, a three-dimensional constitutive model for interbedded sandstone slate and a fiat shell-joint element-foundation system for calculating internal forces of segment lining are established. The deformation features of surrounding rocks of deep and steep interbedded sandstone slate and their influences on internal forces of segment lining are presented. Finally, the design methods of segment lining constructed in deep and steep flysch are proposed. 展开更多
关键词 the Western Route of south-to-north water transfer project rock mechanics issues classification of surrounding rocks stability of surrounding rocks excavation-induced damage lining design
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Eco-environmental benefit assessment of China's South-North Water Transfer Scheme——the middle route project
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作者 DUANGuang-ming ZHAOJing-zhu LIUGuo-hua KEBing XIAOHan WUGang DENGHong-bing 《Journal of Environmental Sciences》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2004年第2期308-315,共8页
This paper assess the eco-environmental benefits that may come from the middle route project of China's South-North Water Transfer Scheme(SNWT) with principles and methods of eco-economics and planning reports of ... This paper assess the eco-environmental benefits that may come from the middle route project of China's South-North Water Transfer Scheme(SNWT) with principles and methods of eco-economics and planning reports of SNWT's middle route project. Some benefits were calculated in monetary units. To make sure that the results can be comparable with normal monetary indices, concrete assessment objects and the parameters are prudently selected according to the major characteristics of the project and its water import region. Primary assessment revealed that in different project construction stages, the benefit could be more than 13 07 billion RMB Yuan in 2010 and 19 79 billion RMB Yuan in 2030, respectively. The monetary value tends to increase with social-economic development. To realize these potential benefits, however, calls for more endeavors. 展开更多
关键词 China's south-north water transfer Scheme(SNWT) the middle route project of south-north water transfer(MRPSNWT) assessment ecosystem services monetary indices
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Price Analysis of Water Supply for South-to-North Water Transfer Project
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作者 QIU Zhong enProfessor, Design Institute, Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan 430010, China Tan Chang liSenior Engineer, Design Institute, Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan 430010, China ZHU Qin Engineer, Design Institute, Chan 《人民长江》 北大核心 2001年第S1期29-32,共4页
The factors influencing the water supply price of a hydraulic project include natural conditions and economic policies. This paper thoroughly demonstrates the water price of South-to-North Water Transfer Project from ... The factors influencing the water supply price of a hydraulic project include natural conditions and economic policies. This paper thoroughly demonstrates the water price of South-to-North Water Transfer Project from the viewpoint of economic policies. It is considered that if the project is assigned as a profitable one and built depending on commercial loan from bank completely or mostly, the water price will be too high to be undertaken by users,and if the project places the public good at first while considering the economic benefit, its investment mainly relies on the state (national or local governments) appropriation and self-raised funds and a little from the bank loan on favorable terms, the price determined according to the principle of satisfying the cost and reasonable profit will be relatively lower and can be undertaken by the users in the North China where water shortage is serious. The problem of higher water price of agricultural irrigation to the north of the Yellow River can be tackled by taking measures such as "compensating agriculture by industry" according to foreign practical experiences and relevant suggestions. 展开更多
关键词 PRICE of water supply water PRICE estimation FUND RAISING schemes water transfer cost Middle-Route project of south-to-north water transfer
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LONG AND DEEP DIVERSION TUNNELS OF 1^(ST) STAGE PROJECT IN WEST ROUTE OF SOUTH-NORTH WATER TRANSFER PROJECT
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作者 Shen Fengsheng,Liu Xin (Reconnaissance,Planning,Design and Research Institute,Yellow River Construction Commission, Ministry of Water Resources, Zhengzhou 450003 China) 《岩石力学与工程学报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2003年第9期1527-1532,共6页
West Route of South-North Water Transfer Project,situated in southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,is a giant project,which will deliver 17 billion m3 of water from the main stream and tributaries upstream of the Yangtze... West Route of South-North Water Transfer Project,situated in southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,is a giant project,which will deliver 17 billion m3 of water from the main stream and tributaries upstream of the Yangtze River to the upper reaches of the Yellow River. It is to be constructed in 3 stages, of which the 1st stage project includes delivering 4 billion m3 of water by gravity from two tributaries of Yalong River and three tributaries of Dadu River. The project consists of 5 dams,7 tunnels and a channel in series,with the dam height of 63~123 m and water transfer length of 260.3 km,of which the tunnels measure 244.1 km. The special climatic,environmental and geologic conditions make the project much more complicated in construction,especially 3 tunnels with the length longer than 50 km each create challenges to the technical requirements of engineering survey,design and construction. 展开更多
关键词 南水北调工程 西线工程 引水隧洞 TBM
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Simulation of Transport Channel in China's Middle Route South-to-North Water Transfer Project 被引量:3
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作者 方神光 魏加华 +1 位作者 吴保生 尚毅梓 《Tsinghua Science and Technology》 SCIE EI CAS 2009年第3期367-377,共11页
The unsteady flow in the Middle Route South-to-North Water Transfer Channel was simulated numerically using an implicit solution procedure for the Saint Venant equations. An equivalent roughness was used to simulate t... The unsteady flow in the Middle Route South-to-North Water Transfer Channel was simulated numerically using an implicit solution procedure for the Saint Venant equations. An equivalent roughness was used to simulate the effect of many transfer structures on the water levels in the main channel. Various gate operating and control methods were analyzed to study the response to disturbances produced by varying the flow rates through the Tianjin outlet. The results show that when the inflow at the head changes in the same way as the sum of the flow rates through all the outlets, the transition time and the fluctuation of the water levels using the timed gate operation method are less than when using the simultaneous gate operation method, but the variations of the gate openings and flow rates through each control gate are much larger. The flow disturbances produced by the Tianjin outlet can be rectified within several channel sections and the transition time can be greatly shortened by allowing the water levels immediately upstream of the control gates to vary within proscribed ranges, rather than being held constant. 展开更多
关键词 Middle Route south-to-north water transfer project unsteady flow open channel control system SIMULATION
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2-D NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF FLOODING EFFECTS CAUSED BY SOUTH-TO-NORTH WATER TRANSFER PROJECT 被引量:1
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作者 SUN Dong-po XUE Hai +2 位作者 WANG Peng-tao LU Rui-li LIAO Xiao- long 《Journal of Hydrodynamics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2008年第5期662-667,共6页
Since the General Channel designed for the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in China has to cross many rivers and streams flowing from west to east, there are potentially serious effects additional flooding on th... Since the General Channel designed for the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in China has to cross many rivers and streams flowing from west to east, there are potentially serious effects additional flooding on the western side of the project alignment. Therefore, a 2-D numerical model for forecasting basin flood disasters was established and verified using historical flood data. The model was applied to researching the interaction between the proposed Project and flooding events for 5 streams in the Anyang River reach as a representative case study. Simulated results indicate that the model could correctly forecast the flood, submerged area and depths, and water surface elevations along the left side of the channel. The discharge capacity and location of hydraulic structures in the transfer canal alignment were analyzed. Then adjustments to the dimensions and positioning of proposed hydraulic structures were recommended at intersections, especially the addition of a channel to transfer flood water from one stream to another, which can effectively limit the sluice and protect the Anyang City from flooding. 展开更多
关键词 south-to-north water transfer project 2-D numerical simulation interpenetrating flood field diffiuent canal
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洪泽洪和骆马湖北调水位控制对南水北调东线工程江苏段水量调度的影响
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作者 钟华昱 方国华 +3 位作者 闻昕 李鑫 颜敏 周冰逸 《水资源保护》 北大核心 2026年第1期49-58,212,共11页
为量化洪泽洪和骆马湖北调水位约束对南水北调东线工程江苏段调度效益的影响,构建了考虑该约束(工况S1)与不考虑该约束(工况S2)的河、湖、闸、泵多目标联合优化调度模型,以最小化受水区综合缺水率与总抽水量为目标,并引入供水基尼系数... 为量化洪泽洪和骆马湖北调水位约束对南水北调东线工程江苏段调度效益的影响,构建了考虑该约束(工况S1)与不考虑该约束(工况S2)的河、湖、闸、泵多目标联合优化调度模型,以最小化受水区综合缺水率与总抽水量为目标,并引入供水基尼系数保障各受水区间的供水均衡性。结果表明:在保障相同供水水平下,工况S2可显著减少总抽水量、弃水量和抽江水量,提升湖泊调蓄能力与水资源综合利用效率;丰水年,工况S2相较于S1抽水量减少34.9%,弃水量下降5.9%,抽江水量下降34.7%,洪泽湖和骆马湖的供水量分别增加1.69亿m^(3)和1.86亿m^(3),泵站抽水入湖水量分别减少85.1%和50.3%;在保障湖泊安全供水的前提下,不考虑湖泊北调水位约束可增强区域水资源保障能力,提升工程水量调度能力。 展开更多
关键词 梯级泵站群 跨流域调水 水资源调度 多目标优化 南水北调东线工程
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南水北调工程驱动下华北平原地下水储量变化
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作者 赵一凡 翟嘉欣 +2 位作者 王梓函 张玥 周超凡 《南水北调与水利科技(中英文)》 北大核心 2026年第1期20-30,共11页
为明晰华北平原地下水储量变化规律,指导地下水资源合理开发利用,基于2002-2022年GRACE重力卫星数据,选取华北平原地下水储量变化为研究对象,重点分析地下水储量的时空变化特征及其驱动因素。以南水北调工程实施为时间节点,探究工程实... 为明晰华北平原地下水储量变化规律,指导地下水资源合理开发利用,基于2002-2022年GRACE重力卫星数据,选取华北平原地下水储量变化为研究对象,重点分析地下水储量的时空变化特征及其驱动因素。以南水北调工程实施为时间节点,探究工程实施前后的地下水储量动态变化差异;结合降水量(P)、蒸散发量(E)、归一化植被指数(normalized difference vegetation index,NDVI)、人为灌溉用水量数据(irrigation,IR)和城市人口数(population,POP),研究地下水长期趋势性变化特征的环境响应关系。结果表明:华北平原地下水储量异常值在2002-2015年呈减少趋势(-0.03124 mm/a),2015-2020年减少趋势加剧(-0.07307 mm/a),2021-2022年地下水呈缓慢增长趋势(0.2424 mm/a)。南水北调工程的实施使人为影响因素对华北平原地下水储量变化的贡献率有所减小。研究揭示华北平原20年来地下水储量的时空变化规律及其对自然和人为驱动因素的响应,为评估大型水利工程的生态与资源效益提供实证依据。 展开更多
关键词 南水北调工程 地下水储量 时空特征 随机森林
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Coupling interaction between biodiversity and aquatic habitat area in Western Route Project vicinity 被引量:1
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作者 Shi-min TIAN Zhao-yin WANG +1 位作者 Xiang-jun LIU Shi-kui LIANG 《Water Science and Engineering》 EI CAS 2010年第3期354-360,共7页
The Western Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project will divert water from the upper Yangtze River and its tributaries, the Dadu River and Yalong River, to the upper Yellow River. The project may ease the w... The Western Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project will divert water from the upper Yangtze River and its tributaries, the Dadu River and Yalong River, to the upper Yellow River. The project may ease the water shortage in the Yellow River Basin. However, it may also have some effects on the ecosystem in the upper Yangtze River Basin. Benthic invertebrates play an important role in the river ecosystem, particularly in the circulation of materials and nutrition. Benthic invertebrates are widely used to quickly assess river ecosystems because of their rapid response to changes in the water environment. The diversity of benthic invertebrates is closely associated with the aquatic habitat area. This study examined this interaction by sampling the benthic invertebrates in an expanding area. The conclusions are that the diversity of benthic invertebrates begins to decrease when the aquatic habitat area is reduced to 45% of the original area, and decreases dramatically when the aquatic habitat area is reduced to 10% of the original area. The aquatic habitat area should be kept at more than 45% of the original area in order to maintain the significant diversity of benthic invertebrates. 展开更多
关键词 Western Route project south-to-north water transfer project river ecosystem benthic invertebrates BIODIVERSITY aquatic habitat area
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国家骨干水网工程定价模式思考 被引量:1
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作者 秦长海 游梦园 +1 位作者 何凡 车温馨 《南水北调与水利科技(中英文)》 北大核心 2025年第2期277-283,292,共8页
国家水网与能源网和交通网同属国家重大工程,针对现状定价存在的问题,参考电网、天然气网以及成品油定价机制,提出水网工程定价模式,即水网骨干工程逐步推进单一价格定价模式,降低末端用水城市与其他区域调水水价差距,并以南水北调东线... 国家水网与能源网和交通网同属国家重大工程,针对现状定价存在的问题,参考电网、天然气网以及成品油定价机制,提出水网工程定价模式,即水网骨干工程逐步推进单一价格定价模式,降低末端用水城市与其他区域调水水价差距,并以南水北调东线和中线一期工程为例,初步测算单一水价以及各受水区水价承受能力。采用单一定价模式具有优化管理机制、提高管理效率,拉低首尾价差、消除水价歧视,平抑市场价格、促进均衡发展等优势,当然也存在首端水价提高、触动现有利益主体、不能体现“物以稀为贵”等弊端。定价模式调整的弊端可以通过水资源税调整作为解决方案,以最大限度发挥政策的积极作用。 展开更多
关键词 水网 水资源 定价 机制 南水北调工程
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南水北调中线总干渠浮游藻类对高锰酸盐指数的影响
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作者 王超 毕磊 +5 位作者 赵伦 陈希 袁思光 唐文忠 张鋆 张屹哲 《南水北调与水利科技(中英文)》 北大核心 2025年第2期284-292,共9页
高锰酸盐指数和藻类是南水北调中线总干渠水质管理关注的重要指标。渠道监测结果表明,高锰酸盐指数与藻密度密切相关,具有明显的阈值效应。总干渠高锰酸盐指数和藻密度均沿程上升,藻密度每年7-9月达到峰值,与高锰酸盐指数超2 mg/L断面... 高锰酸盐指数和藻类是南水北调中线总干渠水质管理关注的重要指标。渠道监测结果表明,高锰酸盐指数与藻密度密切相关,具有明显的阈值效应。总干渠高锰酸盐指数和藻密度均沿程上升,藻密度每年7-9月达到峰值,与高锰酸盐指数超2 mg/L断面数量季节变化基本同步;藻密度大于1000万L^(-1)时与高锰酸盐指数相关性增强,藻密度小于等于1000万L^(-1)时相关性减弱。结果表明:藻类生长对数期高锰酸盐指数快速增加,藻类生长稳定期和衰退期藻密度与高锰酸盐指数相关性减弱。总干渠过流时间与藻类的生长周期基本对应,藻类培养试验得到高锰酸盐指数释放率为0.017 mg/106,藻类对渠道高锰酸盐指数增量的平均贡献在50%以上。研究表明浮游藻类是总干渠高锰酸盐指数的主要影响因素,研究结果可为渠道藻类防控阈值制定提供依据。 展开更多
关键词 南水北调工程 中线总干渠 高锰酸盐指数 浮游藻类 时空演变
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南水北调中线干渠冰情时空变化特征及驱动因素研究
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作者 王秀杰 宋新丹 +2 位作者 乔鸿飞 田福昌 苑希民 《冰川冻土》 2025年第3期804-814,共11页
南水北调中线工程在冰期输水能力受限,已成为影响工程安全运行与其社会效益发挥的重大挑战。为提升冬季输水能力,亟需深入探究中线干渠冰情的演变规律及其驱动因素。研究基于南水北调中线工程上的北拒马河、漕河及滹沱河等典型断面2014... 南水北调中线工程在冰期输水能力受限,已成为影响工程安全运行与其社会效益发挥的重大挑战。为提升冬季输水能力,亟需深入探究中线干渠冰情的演变规律及其驱动因素。研究基于南水北调中线工程上的北拒马河、漕河及滹沱河等典型断面2014—2022年冬季实测冰情、水温、水力及气象等资料,分析了冰情时空分布特征和不同影响因子对各类冰情分布的统计规律。通过灰色关联分析(GRA)和极端梯度提升(XGBoost)两种方法,分别识别并量化影响冰情的关键因子。结果表明,冰凌影响区主要集中在七里河倒虹吸至北拒马河暗渠渠段,冰层、冰塞风险区在滹沱河至北拒马河渠段,工程运行以来冰期历时和封冻历时均呈现缩短趋势;水温、气温及流量等相关指标对于不同类别的冰情分布范围存在明显差异和单峰分布特征;水温、日均气温、最低气温、滑动三日气温和、滑动三日负积温以及流量等因子与冰情的灰色关联系数均大于0.9,对应的特征重要性超过400,对冰情具有显著影响,而其他因子的影响相对较弱。研究成果将为构建南水北调中线干渠水温与冰情的智能预测模型提供可靠依据,对改善工程冬季运行管理具有重要参考价值。 展开更多
关键词 南水北调中线工程 冰情变化特征 冰情影响因素 灰色关联度分析 极端梯度提升
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南水北调中线工程源头水库冬季输热潜力分析 被引量:2
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作者 刘礼锦 脱友才 +2 位作者 邓云 康静伟 张旭 《水利学报》 北大核心 2025年第5期672-682,共11页
丹江口水库是南水北调中线工程的源头水库,其热状态演变特性及冬季对中线干渠的输热能力是研究提升中线干渠冬季输水能力方案中亟需探索的关键问题之一。本文通过分析2006—2022年库周水文站的水温监测数据,研究了大坝加高前后水库的热... 丹江口水库是南水北调中线工程的源头水库,其热状态演变特性及冬季对中线干渠的输热能力是研究提升中线干渠冬季输水能力方案中亟需探索的关键问题之一。本文通过分析2006—2022年库周水文站的水温监测数据,研究了大坝加高前后水库的热状态特征变化,初步厘清了水库热量输移轨迹,并探讨了水库冬季对中线干渠的输热潜力。研究表明:(1)丹江口水库为分层型水库,大坝加高后分层效应加重,坝前垂向温差范围自0.3~4.9℃扩大至0.2~12.0℃,滞温蓄热能力增强,春夏季对下游河道的低温水影响最大加剧8.0℃,冬季渠首取水温度最大提升2.1℃。(2)水库大坝加高后,陶岔渠首冬季取水温度与多个影响要素的响应关系改变:(1)取水温度同气温的相关性系数由0.85降至0.78;(2)冬季取水温度变化趋势在2013年后产生突变,M-K趋势性检验指标tau值由-0.11转变为0.16,在保持高水位运行下,有逐步上升的趋势;(3)冬季取水温度同流量较大的汉江入库水温的相位偏差角基本为0°,二者更加相关。(3)冬季可通过抬高运行水位或加大渠首取水流量,利用温度分布的空间差异及热量输移轨迹,补充渠首区域热量,有利于挖掘水库对中线干渠的输热潜力。研究结果可为南水北调中线工程冬季输水能力提升方案的制定提供技术支撑。 展开更多
关键词 丹江口水库 南水北调中线工程 热量输移 输热潜力 输水能力
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新形势下南水北调东线工程主要水源来水演变规律及适应性对策 被引量:6
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作者 刘为锋 李云玲 +6 位作者 卢庆文 李昕阳 刘婧 刘奇 陈娟 王永强 郭旭宁 《水资源保护》 北大核心 2025年第2期165-172,192,共9页
基于1980—2020年长系列水文资料,采用多种经典统计方法分析了新形势下南水北调东线工程水源区长江下游、洪泽湖、骆马湖、南四湖下级湖主要水源来水的演变规律。结果表明:除洪泽湖汛期和南四湖下级湖非汛期径流量呈下降趋势、南四湖下... 基于1980—2020年长系列水文资料,采用多种经典统计方法分析了新形势下南水北调东线工程水源区长江下游、洪泽湖、骆马湖、南四湖下级湖主要水源来水的演变规律。结果表明:除洪泽湖汛期和南四湖下级湖非汛期径流量呈下降趋势、南四湖下级湖年径流量无明显变化趋势外,各水源其他时段径流量均呈上升趋势;骆马湖年、汛期径流量在1999年发生显著突变,南四湖下级湖非汛期径流量在2005年发生显著突变;大通站、洪泽湖、骆马湖、南四湖下级湖年径流分别存在14、16、10、13 a的主周期,根据周期规律预测,近期大通站、骆马湖将可能处于径流量偏多期,洪泽湖、南四湖下级湖将可能处于径流量偏少期;相邻水源径流滑动相关系数年际变化大,各相邻水源平均丰枯同步率和异步率分别为41.8%和21.4%。针对主要水源来水演变规律,提出充分利用预报信息调整调水计划、进行水量补偿及库容补偿联合优化调度、探索极端枯水条件下的可调水量潜力等应对策略。 展开更多
关键词 南水北调东线工程 径流 时间序列分析 调水潜力 丰枯遭遇
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基于CMIP6多模式的南水北调西线工程区未来气候变化预估 被引量:1
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作者 石英 徐影 +3 位作者 巢清尘 张梦然 韩振宇 王荣 《气候变化研究进展》 北大核心 2025年第3期340-352,共13页
基于国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(CMIP6)的24个全球气候模式结果,预估了SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5(分别代表低、中和高排放情景)3种温室气体排放情景下,南水北调西线工程区(分为水源区和受水区)未来气候变化,结果显示:在不同温室... 基于国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(CMIP6)的24个全球气候模式结果,预估了SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5(分别代表低、中和高排放情景)3种温室气体排放情景下,南水北调西线工程区(分为水源区和受水区)未来气候变化,结果显示:在不同温室气体排放情景下,2021—2100年水源区和受水区年平均气温均呈显著上升趋势,年平均降水和极端降水(以日最大降水量表征)均以增加为主,且随着排放情景的升高,变化幅度增大。从未来变化的空间分布来看,与基准期(1995—2014年)相比,多模式集合平均结果显示水源区和受水区21世纪近期(2021—2040年)、中期(2041—2060年)和末期(2081—2100年)年平均气温均将增加,年平均降水和极端降水将增多,且增幅随时间增大。从未来3个时段区域平均的变化看,所有模式模拟水源区和受水区年平均气温相对基准期均增加,且模式间的一致性较好;模拟年平均降水和极端降水变化则显示出较大的不确定性,总体以增加为主。综合来看,水源区未来降水的变化对南水北调西线工程的规划和建设实施是有利的,但同时也需科学理解预估结果的不确定性。 展开更多
关键词 南水北调西线工程区 水源区 受水区 气候变化预估
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南水北调泵站调节池表层沉积物抗生素抗性基因分布特征及影响因素 被引量:3
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作者 李菲 邱春生 +5 位作者 王晨晨 许菲 王栋 刘楠楠 陈旭 王少坡 《环境科学》 北大核心 2025年第3期1435-1442,共8页
南水北调中线工程天津段原水枢纽泵站调节池承接引汉江原水至市区水厂,是保障供水安全的重要设施,上游原水携带的大量颗粒污染物沉积于调节池.分别于2022年夏季、秋季、冬季和2023年春季采集调节池不同区域表层沉积物样品,利用宏基因组... 南水北调中线工程天津段原水枢纽泵站调节池承接引汉江原水至市区水厂,是保障供水安全的重要设施,上游原水携带的大量颗粒污染物沉积于调节池.分别于2022年夏季、秋季、冬季和2023年春季采集调节池不同区域表层沉积物样品,利用宏基因组测序技术,分析其抗生素抗性基因(ARGs)的分布特征及影响因素,并对沉积物ARGs与理化指标、微生物群落结构和可移动遗传元件(MGEs)类型的相关性进行了分析.结果表明,调节池表层沉积物样品中检测出20种抗生素抗性类型和921种ARGs亚型,不同取样时间和取样点样品中优势ARGs为多重耐药类、MLS类、四环素类和糖肽类,主要耐药机制为外排泵.相关性分析发现,沉积物的TN、NO_(3)^(-)-N、TP和OM与多种丰度前20的ARGs呈显著相关(P<0.05);丰度前20的微生物菌属中有19种与ARGs呈显著相关(P<0.05);接合转移蛋白、重组酶和转座酶这些MGEs类型与多种丰度前20的ARGs呈显著正相关(P<0.05). 展开更多
关键词 南水北调中线工程 抗生素抗性基因(ARGs) 宏基因组 时空分布 微生物群落结构
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跨流域调水多水源多目标水量调度模拟-优化双层耦合算法 被引量:11
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作者 董远恒 徐斌 +4 位作者 张雨薇 薛煜婷 余莹莹 刘为锋 李江缘 《南水北调与水利科技(中英文)》 北大核心 2025年第1期36-46,共11页
跨流域调水系统的水量调度问题涉及多水源、多用户、多目标等,关系结构复杂,决策变量众多,传统单一模拟方法或优化方法难以兼顾求解效率与优化性能的需求。针对此,提出一种多水源调度模拟-优化双层耦合求解算法,上层算法基于近似最优原... 跨流域调水系统的水量调度问题涉及多水源、多用户、多目标等,关系结构复杂,决策变量众多,传统单一模拟方法或优化方法难以兼顾求解效率与优化性能的需求。针对此,提出一种多水源调度模拟-优化双层耦合求解算法,上层算法基于近似最优原则模拟本地水源调配,下层算法引入大系统分解协调优化外调水调配,能够在保障优化性能的同时有效降低计算复杂度。以南水北调东线工程一期及北延段为研究区域,以受水区用户加权缺水率平方和最小与源头调水总量最小为优化目标,构建水量调度多目标优化模型,并采用模拟-优化双层耦合算法进行求解。结果表明:相较于直接优化,模拟-优化双层耦合算法优化效果近似,但平均耗时更短;算法将本地水与外调水的联合调配按优先次序进行模型分解,提高了多水源调度结果的可解释性;算法能够为求解大规模跨流域调水多水源多目标水量调度问题提供参考。 展开更多
关键词 跨流域调水 多水源 多目标 模拟-优化 大系统分解协调 南水北调东线工程
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