Surplus production models(SPMs)are among the simplest and most widely used fishery stock assessment models.The catch-effort data analysis(CEDA)and a surplus production model incorporating covariates(ASPIC)are software...Surplus production models(SPMs)are among the simplest and most widely used fishery stock assessment models.The catch-effort data analysis(CEDA)and a surplus production model incorporating covariates(ASPIC)are softwares for analyzing fishery catch and fishing effort data using nonequilibrium SPMs.In China Fishery Statistical Yearbook,annual fishery production and fishing effort data of the Yellow Sea,Bohai Sea,East China Sea,and South China Sea have been published from 1979 till present.Using its catch and fishing effort data from 1980 to 2018,we apply the CEDA and ASPIC to evaluate fishery resources in Chinese coastal waters.The results show that the total maximum sustainable yield(MSY)estimate of the four China seas is 10.05-10.83 million tons,approximately equal to the marine fishery catch(10.44 million tons)reported in 2018.It can be concluded that China’s coastal fishery resources are currently fully exploited and must be protected with a precautionary approach.Both softwares produced similar results;however,the CEDA had a much higher R2 value(above 0.9)than ASPIC(about 0.2),indicating that CEDA can better fit the data and therefore is more suitable for analyzing the fishery resources in the coastal waters of China.展开更多
Pakistani marine waters are under an open access regime. Due to poor management and policy implications, blind fishing is continued which may result in ecological as well as economic losses. Thus, it is of utmost impo...Pakistani marine waters are under an open access regime. Due to poor management and policy implications, blind fishing is continued which may result in ecological as well as economic losses. Thus, it is of utmost importance to estimate fishery resources before harvesting. In this study, catch and effort data, 1996-2009, of Kiddi shrimp Parapenaeopsis stylifera fishery from Pakistani marine waters was analyzed by using specialized fishery software in order to know fishery stock status of this commercially important shrimp. Maximum, minimum and average capture production ofP. stylifera was observed as 15 912 metric tons （mr） （1997）, 9 438 mt （2009） and 11 667 mt/a. Two stock assessment tools viz. CEDA （catch and effort data analysis） and ASPIC （a stock production model incorporating covariates） were used to compute MSY （maximum sustainable yield） of this organism. In CEDA, three surplus production models, Fox, Schaefer and Pella-Tomlinson, along with three error assumptions, log, log normal and gamma, were used. For initial proportion （IP） 0.8, the Fox model computed MSY as 6 858 nat （CV=0.204, R^2=0.709） and 7 384 mt （CV=0.149, R^2=0.72） for log and log normal error assumption respectively. Here, gamma error produced minimization failure. Estimated MSY by using Schaefer and Pella-Tomlinson models remained the same for log, log normal and gamma error assumptions i.e. 7 083 mt, 8 209 mt and 7 242 mt correspondingly. The Schafer results showed highest goodness of fit R2 （0.712） values. ASPIC computed MSY, CV, R2, FMsv and BMsv parameters for the Fox model as 7 219 nat, 0.142, 0.872, 0.111 and 65 280, while for the Logistic model the computed values remained 7 720 mt, 0.148, 0.868, 0.107 and 72 110 correspondingly. Results obtained have shown that P. stylifera has been overexploited. Immediate steps are needed to conserve this fishery resource for the future and research on other species of commercial importance is urgently needed.展开更多
The southern Patagonian stock（SPS） of Argentinian shortfin squid, Illex argentinus, is an economically important squid fishery in the Southwest Atlantic. Environmental conditions in the region play an important role...The southern Patagonian stock（SPS） of Argentinian shortfin squid, Illex argentinus, is an economically important squid fishery in the Southwest Atlantic. Environmental conditions in the region play an important role in regulating the population dynamics of the I. argentinus population. This study develops an environmentally dependent surplus production（EDSP） model to evaluate the stock abundance of I. argentines during the period of 2000 to 2010. The environmental factors（favorable spawning habitat areas with sea surface temperature of 16–18°C） were assumed to be closely associated with carrying capacity（K） in the EDSP model. Deviance Information Criterion（DIC） values suggest that the estimated EDSP model with environmental factors fits the data better than a Schaefer surplus model without environmental factors under uniform and normal scenarios.The EDSP model estimated a maximum sustainable yield（MSY） from 351 600 t to 685 100 t and a biomass from 1 322 400 t to1 803 000 t. The fishing mortality coefficient of I. argentinus from 2000 to 2010 was smaller than the values of F（0.1） and F（MSY）. Furthermore, the time series biomass plot of I. argentinus from 2000 to 2010 shows that the biomass of I.argentinus and this fishery were in a good state and not presently experiencing overfishing. This study suggests that the environmental conditions of the habitat should be considered within squid stock assessment and management.展开更多
Based on the growth rates of population, Gross Domestic Products (GDP) and agriculture productivity, the areas of deforestation were predicted in Jutp ani village, Chitwan district, Nepal by Area Production Model (AP...Based on the growth rates of population, Gross Domestic Products (GDP) and agriculture productivity, the areas of deforestation were predicted in Jutp ani village, Chitwan district, Nepal by Area Production Model (APM). Through the APM simulation in this study, all of forestland will be transferred into agricu ltural land in 2030 at the rate of 24% per year on the current productivity. And if the productivity of subsistence food crop is assumed to increase at the rate of 1%, the productivity of market crop and export crop increase at the rate of 2% annually, deforestation rate will decrease to 17% per year, but only 124 hm2 forest land will be left till 2038. The agriculture productivity is a very impor tant factor for the deforestation, so intensification of agriculture management is more important.展开更多
Surplus production models are the simplest analytical methods effective for fish stock assessment and fisheries management. In this paper, eight surplus production estimators(three estimation procedures) were tested o...Surplus production models are the simplest analytical methods effective for fish stock assessment and fisheries management. In this paper, eight surplus production estimators(three estimation procedures) were tested on Schaefer and Fox type simulated data in three simulated fisheries(declining, well-managed, and restoring fisheries) at two white noise levels. Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to verify the utility of moving averaging(MA), which was an important technique for reducing the effect of noise in data in these models. The relative estimation error(REE) of maximum sustainable yield(MSY) was used as an indicator for the analysis, and one-way ANOVA was applied to test the significance of the REE calculated at four levels of MA. Simulation results suggested that increasing the value of MA could significantly improve the performance of the surplus production model(low REE) in all cases when the white noise level was low(coefficient of variation(CV) = 0.02). However, when the white noise level increased(CV= 0.25), adding the value of MA could still significantly enhance the performance of most models. Our results indicated that the best model performance occurred frequently when MA was equal to 3; however, some exceptions were observed when MA was higher.展开更多
Presented a 'safe production model' that can be adopted by small mine opera- tors to achieve their production targets safely and efficiently.The model consists of eight elements ranging from management commitm...Presented a 'safe production model' that can be adopted by small mine opera- tors to achieve their production targets safely and efficiently.The model consists of eight elements ranging from management commitment and leadership to safety account-ability and communication.The model is developed considering the mine operators' resource limitations and the workers' training needs.The study concludes with a summary of a sample survey that is conducted to validate the model and estimate a parameter for each mine and determine its position in the safe production scale.展开更多
Understanding crop patterns and their changes on regional scale is a critical re- quirement for projecting agro-ecosystem dynamics. However, tools and methods for mapping the distribution of crop area and yield are st...Understanding crop patterns and their changes on regional scale is a critical re- quirement for projecting agro-ecosystem dynamics. However, tools and methods for mapping the distribution of crop area and yield are still lacking. Based on the cross-entropy theory, a spatial production allocation model （SPAM） has been developed for presenting spa- tio-temporal dynamics of maize cropping system in Northeast China during 1980-2010. The simulated results indicated that （1） maize sown area expanded northwards to 48~N before 2000, after that the increased sown area mainly occurred in the central and southern parts of Northeast China. Meanwhile, maize also expanded eastwards to 127°E and lower elevation （less than 100 m） as well as higher elevation （mainly distributed between 200 m and 350 m）; （2） maize yield has been greatly promoted for most planted area of Northeast China, espe- cially in the planted zone between 42°N and 48°N, while the yield increase was relatively homogeneous without obvious longitudinal variations for whole region; （3） maize planting density increased gradually to a moderately high level over the investigated period, which reflected the trend of aggregation of maize cultivation driven by market demand.展开更多
This study presents an avant-garde approach for predicting and optimizing production in tight reservoirs,employing a dual-medium unsteady seepage model specifically fashioned for volumetrically fractured horizontal we...This study presents an avant-garde approach for predicting and optimizing production in tight reservoirs,employing a dual-medium unsteady seepage model specifically fashioned for volumetrically fractured horizontal wells.Traditional models often fail to fully capture the complex dynamics associated with these unconventional reservoirs.In a significant departure from these models,our approach incorporates an initiation pressure gradient and a discrete fracture seepage network,providing a more realistic representation of the seepage process.The model also integrates an enhanced fluid-solid interaction,which allows for a more comprehensive understanding of the fluid-structure interactions in the reservoir.This is achieved through the incorporation of improved permeability and stress coupling,leading to more precise predictions of reservoir behavior.The numerical solutions derived from the model are obtained through the sophisticated finite element method,ensuring high accuracy and computational efficiency.To ensure the model’s reliability and accuracy,the outcomes were tested against a real-world case,with results demonstrating strong alignment.A key revelation from the study is the significant difference between uncoupled and fully coupled volumetrically fractured horizontal wells,challenging conventional wisdom in the field.Additionally,the study delves into the effects of stress,fracture length,and fracture number on reservoir production,contributing valuable insights for the design and optimization of tight reservoirs.The findings from this study have the potential to revolutionize the field of tight reservoir prediction and management,offering significant advancements in petroleum engineering.The proposed approach brings forth a more nuanced understanding of tight reservoir systems and opens up new avenues for optimizing reservoir management and production.展开更多
At the first sight it seems that advanced operation research is not used enough in continuous production systems as comparison with mass production, batch production and job shop systems, but really in a comprehensive...At the first sight it seems that advanced operation research is not used enough in continuous production systems as comparison with mass production, batch production and job shop systems, but really in a comprehensive evaluation the advanced operation research techniques can be used in continuous production systems in developing countries very widely, because of initial inadequate plant layout, stage by stage development of production lines, the purchase of second hand machineries from various countries, plurality of customers. A case of production system planning is proposed for a chemical company in which the above mentioned conditions are almost presented. The goals and constraints in this issue are as follows： （1） Minimizing deviation of customer＇s requirements. （2） Maximizing the profit. （3） Minimizing the frequencies of changes in formula production. （4） Minimizing the inventory of final products. （5） Balancing the production sections with regard to rate in production. （6） Limitation in inventory of raw material. The present situation is in such a way that various techniques such as goal programming, linear programming and dynamic programming can be used. But dynamic production programming issues are divided into two categories, at first one with limitation in production capacity and another with unlimited production capacity. For the first category, a systematic and acceptable solution has not been presented yet. Therefore an innovative method is used to convert the dynamic situation to a zero- one model. At last this issue is changed to a goal programming model with non-linear limitations with the use of GRG algorithm and that＇s how it is solved.展开更多
In response to the production capacity and functionality variations, a genetic algorithm （GA） embedded with deterministic timed Petri nets（DTPN） for reconfigurable production line（RPL） is proposed to solve its s...In response to the production capacity and functionality variations, a genetic algorithm （GA） embedded with deterministic timed Petri nets（DTPN） for reconfigurable production line（RPL） is proposed to solve its scheduling problem. The basic DTPN modules are presented to model the corresponding variable structures in RPL, and then the scheduling model of the whole RPL is constructed. And in the scheduling algorithm, firing sequences of the Petri nets model are used as chromosomes, thus the selection, crossover, and mutation operator do not deal with the elements in the problem space, but the elements of Petri nets model. Accordingly, all the algorithms for GA operations embedded with Petri nets model are proposed. Moreover, the new weighted single-objective optimization based on reconfiguration cost and E/T is used. The results of a DC motor RPL scheduling suggest that the presented DTPN-GA scheduling algorithm has a significant impact on RPL scheduling, and provide obvious improvements over the conventional scheduling method in practice that meets duedate, minimizes reconfiguration cost, and enhances cost effectivity.展开更多
Background:As the market demands change,SMEs(small and medium-sized enterprises)have long faced many design issues,including high costs,lengthy cycles,and insufficient innovation.These issues are especially noticeable...Background:As the market demands change,SMEs(small and medium-sized enterprises)have long faced many design issues,including high costs,lengthy cycles,and insufficient innovation.These issues are especially noticeable in the domain of cosmetic packaging design.Objective:To explore innovative product family modeling methods and configuration design processes to improve the efficiency of enterprise cosmetic packaging design and develop the design for mass customization.Methods:To accomplish this objective,the basic-element theory has been introduced and applied to the design and development system of the product family.Results:By examining the mapping relationships between the demand domain,functional domain,technology domain,and structure domain,four interrelated models have been developed,including the demand model,functional model,technology model,and structure model.Together,these models form the mechanism and methodology of product family modeling,specifically for cosmetic packaging design.Through an analysis of a case study on men’s cosmetic packaging design,the feasibility of the proposed product family modeling technology has been demonstrated in terms of customized cosmetic packaging design,and the design efficiency has been enhanced.Conclusion:The product family modeling technology employs a formalized element as a module configuration design language,permeating throughout the entire development cycle of cosmetic packaging design,thus facilitating a structured and modularized configuration design process for the product family system.The application of the basic-element principle in product family modeling technology contributes to the enrichment of the research field surrounding cosmetic packaging product family configuration design,while also providing valuable methods and references for enterprises aiming to elevate the efficiency of cosmetic packaging design for the mass customization product model.展开更多
The cross sections of fragments produced in the 140 A MeV58,64Ni＋9 Be projectile fragmentation reactions are calculated by using the antisymmetrized molecular dynamics （AMD） model, the modified statistical abrasion...The cross sections of fragments produced in the 140 A MeV58,64Ni＋9 Be projectile fragmentation reactions are calculated by using the antisymmetrized molecular dynamics （AMD） model, the modified statistical abrasion- ablation （SAA） model, and the empirical EPAX2/EPAX3 formulae. The Gogny-gO interaction is taken as the effective nucleon-nucleon interaction in the AMD calculation, and the decays of fragments obtained from the AMD results are calculated by using the GEMINI code. The calculated cross sections of fragments are compared.展开更多
Using the meteorological data during 1971- 2013 and lemon growth and yield data during 2003- 2013 in Anyue,the suitability problem of lemon growth and correlation problem between meteorological factors and lemon growt...Using the meteorological data during 1971- 2013 and lemon growth and yield data during 2003- 2013 in Anyue,the suitability problem of lemon growth and correlation problem between meteorological factors and lemon growth in Anyue area were studied. According to relevance between the selected meteorological factors and yield of lemon,meteorological prediction model of lemon yield was established in Anyue,and the prediction accuracy was higher. The research had certain guiding significance for management work of lemon production in Anyue area.展开更多
Using the typical characteristics of multi-layered marine and continental transitional gas reservoirs as a basis,a model is developed to predict the related well production rate.This model relies on the fractal theory...Using the typical characteristics of multi-layered marine and continental transitional gas reservoirs as a basis,a model is developed to predict the related well production rate.This model relies on the fractal theory of tortuous capillary bundles and can take into account multiple gas flow mechanisms at the micrometer and nanometer scales,as well as the flow characteristics in different types of thin layers(tight sandstone gas,shale gas,and coalbed gas).Moreover,a source-sink function concept and a pressure drop superposition principle are utilized to introduce a coupled flow model in the reservoir.A semi-analytical solution for the production rate is obtained using a matrix iteration method.A specific well is selected for fitting dynamic production data,and the calculation results show that the tight sandstone has the highest gas production per unit thickness compared with the other types of reservoirs.Moreover,desorption and diffusion of coalbed gas and shale gas can significantly contribute to gas production,and the daily production of these two gases decreases rapidly with decreasing reservoir pressure.Interestingly,the gas production from fractures exhibits an approximately U-shaped distribution,indicating the need to optimize the spacing between clusters during hydraulic fracturing to reduce the area of overlapping fracture control.The coal matrix water saturation significantly affects the coalbed gas production,with higher water saturation leading to lower production.展开更多
To improve the productivity of oil wells,perforation technology is usually used to improve the productivity of horizontal wells in oilfield exploitation.After the perforation operation,the perforation channel around t...To improve the productivity of oil wells,perforation technology is usually used to improve the productivity of horizontal wells in oilfield exploitation.After the perforation operation,the perforation channel around the wellbore will form a near-well high-permeability reservoir area with the penetration depth as the radius,that is,the formation has different permeability characteristics with the perforation depth as the dividing line.Generally,the permeability is measured by the permeability tester,but this approach has a high workload and limited application.In this paper,according to the reservoir characteristics of perforated horizontal wells,the reservoir is divided into two areas:the original reservoir area and the near-well high permeability reservoir area.Based on the theory of seepage mechanics and the formula of open hole productivity,the permeability calculation formula of near-well high permeability reservoir area with perforation parameters is deduced.According to the principle of seepage continuity,the seepage is regarded as the synthesis of two directions:the horizontal plane elliptic seepage field and the vertical plane radial seepage field,and the oil well productivity prediction model of the perforated horizontal well is established by partition.The model comparison demonstrates that the model is reasonable and feasible.To calculate and analyze the effect of oil well production and the law of influencing factors,actual production data of the oilfield are substituted into the oil well productivity formula.It can effectively guide the technical process design and effect prediction of perforated horizontal wells.展开更多
Interpretative structural model(ISM) can transform a multivariate problem into several sub-variable problems to analyze a complex industrial structure in a more efficient way by building a multi-level hierarchical str...Interpretative structural model(ISM) can transform a multivariate problem into several sub-variable problems to analyze a complex industrial structure in a more efficient way by building a multi-level hierarchical structure model. To build an ISM of a production system, the partial correlation coefficient method is proposed to obtain the adjacency matrix, which can be transformed to ISM. According to estimation of correlation coefficient, the result can give actual variable correlations and eliminate effects of intermediate variables. Furthermore, this paper proposes an effective approach using ISM to analyze the main factors and basic mechanisms that affect the energy consumption in an ethylene production system. The case study shows that the proposed energy consumption analysis method is valid and efficient in improvement of energy efficiency in ethylene production.展开更多
Accurately predicting the estimated ultimate recovery(EUR)of shale gas wells is key to formulating a shale gas reservoir development plan.However,in practice,determining the EUR remains challenging due to the complex ...Accurately predicting the estimated ultimate recovery(EUR)of shale gas wells is key to formulating a shale gas reservoir development plan.However,in practice,determining the EUR remains challenging due to the complex dynamic characteristics of shale gas production,which first decreases rapidly and then slowly.In this study,based on material balance theory and equivalent seepage resistance theory and considering crucial factors including primary water,adsorption,and pore effects,a new production model for fractured horizontal shale gas wells is developed.The calculation process is designed by using Newton's iterative method.The shale gas well EUR prediction method is verified,and the factors influencing the EUR are analyzed.The results show that adsorption has a significant effect on production,especially on the Langmuir volume.Moreover,ignoring the influence of primary water,which exists in shale gas reservoirs in the form of bound water,results in an overestimation of the EUR.Furthermore,production positively correlates with the fracture half-length and the number of fractures,but the action mechanisms of these two factors differ.Unlike the number of fractures,which predominantly affects the initial stage of production,the fracture half-length has a more nuanced role.It is capable of altering the stimulated reservoir volume zone,thereby exerting influence over the entire production life cycle.展开更多
Mesoscale eddies have been suggested to have an impact on biological carbon fixation in the South China Sea （SCS）. However, their overall contribution to primary production during the spring inter-monsoon pe riod is...Mesoscale eddies have been suggested to have an impact on biological carbon fixation in the South China Sea （SCS）. However, their overall contribution to primary production during the spring inter-monsoon pe riod is still unknown. Based on large-scale biological and environmental in situ observations and synchro nous remote sensing data, the distribution patterns of phytoplankton biomass and the primary production, and the role of mesoscale eddies in regulating primary production in different eddy-controlled waters were investigated. The results suggested that the surface chlorophyll a concentrations and water column inte grated primary production （IPP） are significantly higher in cyclonic eddies and lower in the anticyclonic eddies as compared to that in non-eddy waters. Although eddies could affect various environmental factors, such as nutrients, temperature and light availability, nutrient supply is suggested to be the most important one through which mesoscale eddies regulated the distribution patterns of phytoplankton biomass and pri mary production. The estimated IPP in cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies are about 29.5% higher and 16.6% lower than the total average in the whole study area, respectively, indicating that the promotion effect of mesoscale cold eddies on the primary production was much stronger than the inhibition effect of the warm eddies per unit area. Overall, mesoscale eddies are crucial physical processes that affect the biological car bon fixation and the distribution pattern of primary production in the SCS open sea, especially during the spring inter-monsoon period.展开更多
There is a close theoretical similarity between water pressure gradients in aquifers and applied voltage gradients in aqueous solutions. A series of electric field analogue experiments has been conducted by focusing ...There is a close theoretical similarity between water pressure gradients in aquifers and applied voltage gradients in aqueous solutions. A series of electric field analogue experiments has been conducted by focusing on symmetrical multi-lateral wells and dual-lateral wells of arbitrary angles between laterals. This research not only evaluates the productivity equations of a symmetrical multi-lateral well showing the effect of angles on productivity, but also proposes the concept of the multi-lateral productivity coefficient. Moreover, the multi-lateral productivity coefficient equation is designed to calculate the productivity of dual-lateral wells of variable angles, which is in turn supported by experiment. It also helps provide the experimental basis for optimizing the configuration, and building the semi-analytic productivity model, of multi-lateral wells.展开更多
基金This study is supported by the project from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations(FAO)(No.GF.FIRFD.RA20403020400).
文摘Surplus production models(SPMs)are among the simplest and most widely used fishery stock assessment models.The catch-effort data analysis(CEDA)and a surplus production model incorporating covariates(ASPIC)are softwares for analyzing fishery catch and fishing effort data using nonequilibrium SPMs.In China Fishery Statistical Yearbook,annual fishery production and fishing effort data of the Yellow Sea,Bohai Sea,East China Sea,and South China Sea have been published from 1979 till present.Using its catch and fishing effort data from 1980 to 2018,we apply the CEDA and ASPIC to evaluate fishery resources in Chinese coastal waters.The results show that the total maximum sustainable yield(MSY)estimate of the four China seas is 10.05-10.83 million tons,approximately equal to the marine fishery catch(10.44 million tons)reported in 2018.It can be concluded that China’s coastal fishery resources are currently fully exploited and must be protected with a precautionary approach.Both softwares produced similar results;however,the CEDA had a much higher R2 value(above 0.9)than ASPIC(about 0.2),indicating that CEDA can better fit the data and therefore is more suitable for analyzing the fishery resources in the coastal waters of China.
基金Supported by the Earmarked Fund for Modern Agro-Industry Technology Research System of Chinathe Special Research Fund of Ocean University of China(No.201022001)
文摘Pakistani marine waters are under an open access regime. Due to poor management and policy implications, blind fishing is continued which may result in ecological as well as economic losses. Thus, it is of utmost importance to estimate fishery resources before harvesting. In this study, catch and effort data, 1996-2009, of Kiddi shrimp Parapenaeopsis stylifera fishery from Pakistani marine waters was analyzed by using specialized fishery software in order to know fishery stock status of this commercially important shrimp. Maximum, minimum and average capture production ofP. stylifera was observed as 15 912 metric tons （mr） （1997）, 9 438 mt （2009） and 11 667 mt/a. Two stock assessment tools viz. CEDA （catch and effort data analysis） and ASPIC （a stock production model incorporating covariates） were used to compute MSY （maximum sustainable yield） of this organism. In CEDA, three surplus production models, Fox, Schaefer and Pella-Tomlinson, along with three error assumptions, log, log normal and gamma, were used. For initial proportion （IP） 0.8, the Fox model computed MSY as 6 858 nat （CV=0.204, R^2=0.709） and 7 384 mt （CV=0.149, R^2=0.72） for log and log normal error assumption respectively. Here, gamma error produced minimization failure. Estimated MSY by using Schaefer and Pella-Tomlinson models remained the same for log, log normal and gamma error assumptions i.e. 7 083 mt, 8 209 mt and 7 242 mt correspondingly. The Schafer results showed highest goodness of fit R2 （0.712） values. ASPIC computed MSY, CV, R2, FMsv and BMsv parameters for the Fox model as 7 219 nat, 0.142, 0.872, 0.111 and 65 280, while for the Logistic model the computed values remained 7 720 mt, 0.148, 0.868, 0.107 and 72 110 correspondingly. Results obtained have shown that P. stylifera has been overexploited. Immediate steps are needed to conserve this fishery resource for the future and research on other species of commercial importance is urgently needed.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.NSFC31702343the Science Foundation of Shanghai under contract No.13ZR1419700+4 种基金the Innovation Program of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission under contract No.13YZ091the National High-tech R&D Program of China(863 Program)under contract No.2012AA092303the Funding Program for Outstanding Dissertations in Shanghai Ocean Universitythe Funding Scheme for Training Young Teachers in Shanghai Colleges and the Shanghai Leading Academic Discipline Project(Fisheries Discipline)Involvement of Chen Yong was supported by SHOU International Center for Marine Studies and Shanghai 1000 Talent Program
文摘The southern Patagonian stock（SPS） of Argentinian shortfin squid, Illex argentinus, is an economically important squid fishery in the Southwest Atlantic. Environmental conditions in the region play an important role in regulating the population dynamics of the I. argentinus population. This study develops an environmentally dependent surplus production（EDSP） model to evaluate the stock abundance of I. argentines during the period of 2000 to 2010. The environmental factors（favorable spawning habitat areas with sea surface temperature of 16–18°C） were assumed to be closely associated with carrying capacity（K） in the EDSP model. Deviance Information Criterion（DIC） values suggest that the estimated EDSP model with environmental factors fits the data better than a Schaefer surplus model without environmental factors under uniform and normal scenarios.The EDSP model estimated a maximum sustainable yield（MSY） from 351 600 t to 685 100 t and a biomass from 1 322 400 t to1 803 000 t. The fishing mortality coefficient of I. argentinus from 2000 to 2010 was smaller than the values of F（0.1） and F（MSY）. Furthermore, the time series biomass plot of I. argentinus from 2000 to 2010 shows that the biomass of I.argentinus and this fishery were in a good state and not presently experiencing overfishing. This study suggests that the environmental conditions of the habitat should be considered within squid stock assessment and management.
文摘Based on the growth rates of population, Gross Domestic Products (GDP) and agriculture productivity, the areas of deforestation were predicted in Jutp ani village, Chitwan district, Nepal by Area Production Model (APM). Through the APM simulation in this study, all of forestland will be transferred into agricu ltural land in 2030 at the rate of 24% per year on the current productivity. And if the productivity of subsistence food crop is assumed to increase at the rate of 1%, the productivity of market crop and export crop increase at the rate of 2% annually, deforestation rate will decrease to 17% per year, but only 124 hm2 forest land will be left till 2038. The agriculture productivity is a very impor tant factor for the deforestation, so intensification of agriculture management is more important.
基金supported by the special research fund of Ocean University of China (201022001)
文摘Surplus production models are the simplest analytical methods effective for fish stock assessment and fisheries management. In this paper, eight surplus production estimators(three estimation procedures) were tested on Schaefer and Fox type simulated data in three simulated fisheries(declining, well-managed, and restoring fisheries) at two white noise levels. Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to verify the utility of moving averaging(MA), which was an important technique for reducing the effect of noise in data in these models. The relative estimation error(REE) of maximum sustainable yield(MSY) was used as an indicator for the analysis, and one-way ANOVA was applied to test the significance of the REE calculated at four levels of MA. Simulation results suggested that increasing the value of MA could significantly improve the performance of the surplus production model(low REE) in all cases when the white noise level was low(coefficient of variation(CV) = 0.02). However, when the white noise level increased(CV= 0.25), adding the value of MA could still significantly enhance the performance of most models. Our results indicated that the best model performance occurred frequently when MA was equal to 3; however, some exceptions were observed when MA was higher.
基金the Research and Training Program on Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment for Small Mines in the Western US
文摘Presented a 'safe production model' that can be adopted by small mine opera- tors to achieve their production targets safely and efficiently.The model consists of eight elements ranging from management commitment and leadership to safety account-ability and communication.The model is developed considering the mine operators' resource limitations and the workers' training needs.The study concludes with a summary of a sample survey that is conducted to validate the model and estimate a parameter for each mine and determine its position in the safe production scale.
基金Foundation： National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41171328, No.41201184, No.41101537 National Basic Program of China, No.2010CB951502
文摘Understanding crop patterns and their changes on regional scale is a critical re- quirement for projecting agro-ecosystem dynamics. However, tools and methods for mapping the distribution of crop area and yield are still lacking. Based on the cross-entropy theory, a spatial production allocation model （SPAM） has been developed for presenting spa- tio-temporal dynamics of maize cropping system in Northeast China during 1980-2010. The simulated results indicated that （1） maize sown area expanded northwards to 48~N before 2000, after that the increased sown area mainly occurred in the central and southern parts of Northeast China. Meanwhile, maize also expanded eastwards to 127°E and lower elevation （less than 100 m） as well as higher elevation （mainly distributed between 200 m and 350 m）; （2） maize yield has been greatly promoted for most planted area of Northeast China, espe- cially in the planted zone between 42°N and 48°N, while the yield increase was relatively homogeneous without obvious longitudinal variations for whole region; （3） maize planting density increased gradually to a moderately high level over the investigated period, which reflected the trend of aggregation of maize cultivation driven by market demand.
文摘This study presents an avant-garde approach for predicting and optimizing production in tight reservoirs,employing a dual-medium unsteady seepage model specifically fashioned for volumetrically fractured horizontal wells.Traditional models often fail to fully capture the complex dynamics associated with these unconventional reservoirs.In a significant departure from these models,our approach incorporates an initiation pressure gradient and a discrete fracture seepage network,providing a more realistic representation of the seepage process.The model also integrates an enhanced fluid-solid interaction,which allows for a more comprehensive understanding of the fluid-structure interactions in the reservoir.This is achieved through the incorporation of improved permeability and stress coupling,leading to more precise predictions of reservoir behavior.The numerical solutions derived from the model are obtained through the sophisticated finite element method,ensuring high accuracy and computational efficiency.To ensure the model’s reliability and accuracy,the outcomes were tested against a real-world case,with results demonstrating strong alignment.A key revelation from the study is the significant difference between uncoupled and fully coupled volumetrically fractured horizontal wells,challenging conventional wisdom in the field.Additionally,the study delves into the effects of stress,fracture length,and fracture number on reservoir production,contributing valuable insights for the design and optimization of tight reservoirs.The findings from this study have the potential to revolutionize the field of tight reservoir prediction and management,offering significant advancements in petroleum engineering.The proposed approach brings forth a more nuanced understanding of tight reservoir systems and opens up new avenues for optimizing reservoir management and production.
文摘At the first sight it seems that advanced operation research is not used enough in continuous production systems as comparison with mass production, batch production and job shop systems, but really in a comprehensive evaluation the advanced operation research techniques can be used in continuous production systems in developing countries very widely, because of initial inadequate plant layout, stage by stage development of production lines, the purchase of second hand machineries from various countries, plurality of customers. A case of production system planning is proposed for a chemical company in which the above mentioned conditions are almost presented. The goals and constraints in this issue are as follows： （1） Minimizing deviation of customer＇s requirements. （2） Maximizing the profit. （3） Minimizing the frequencies of changes in formula production. （4） Minimizing the inventory of final products. （5） Balancing the production sections with regard to rate in production. （6） Limitation in inventory of raw material. The present situation is in such a way that various techniques such as goal programming, linear programming and dynamic programming can be used. But dynamic production programming issues are divided into two categories, at first one with limitation in production capacity and another with unlimited production capacity. For the first category, a systematic and acceptable solution has not been presented yet. Therefore an innovative method is used to convert the dynamic situation to a zero- one model. At last this issue is changed to a goal programming model with non-linear limitations with the use of GRG algorithm and that＇s how it is solved.
基金This project is supported by Key Science-Technology Project of Shanghai City Tenth Five-Year-Plan, China (No.031111002)Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education, China (No.20040247033)Municipal Key Basic Research Program of Shanghai, China (No.05JC14060)
文摘In response to the production capacity and functionality variations, a genetic algorithm （GA） embedded with deterministic timed Petri nets（DTPN） for reconfigurable production line（RPL） is proposed to solve its scheduling problem. The basic DTPN modules are presented to model the corresponding variable structures in RPL, and then the scheduling model of the whole RPL is constructed. And in the scheduling algorithm, firing sequences of the Petri nets model are used as chromosomes, thus the selection, crossover, and mutation operator do not deal with the elements in the problem space, but the elements of Petri nets model. Accordingly, all the algorithms for GA operations embedded with Petri nets model are proposed. Moreover, the new weighted single-objective optimization based on reconfiguration cost and E/T is used. The results of a DC motor RPL scheduling suggest that the presented DTPN-GA scheduling algorithm has a significant impact on RPL scheduling, and provide obvious improvements over the conventional scheduling method in practice that meets duedate, minimizes reconfiguration cost, and enhances cost effectivity.
基金the Guangdong Planning Office of Philosophy and Social Science(Grant No.GD22XYS04).
文摘Background:As the market demands change,SMEs(small and medium-sized enterprises)have long faced many design issues,including high costs,lengthy cycles,and insufficient innovation.These issues are especially noticeable in the domain of cosmetic packaging design.Objective:To explore innovative product family modeling methods and configuration design processes to improve the efficiency of enterprise cosmetic packaging design and develop the design for mass customization.Methods:To accomplish this objective,the basic-element theory has been introduced and applied to the design and development system of the product family.Results:By examining the mapping relationships between the demand domain,functional domain,technology domain,and structure domain,four interrelated models have been developed,including the demand model,functional model,technology model,and structure model.Together,these models form the mechanism and methodology of product family modeling,specifically for cosmetic packaging design.Through an analysis of a case study on men’s cosmetic packaging design,the feasibility of the proposed product family modeling technology has been demonstrated in terms of customized cosmetic packaging design,and the design efficiency has been enhanced.Conclusion:The product family modeling technology employs a formalized element as a module configuration design language,permeating throughout the entire development cycle of cosmetic packaging design,thus facilitating a structured and modularized configuration design process for the product family system.The application of the basic-element principle in product family modeling technology contributes to the enrichment of the research field surrounding cosmetic packaging product family configuration design,while also providing valuable methods and references for enterprises aiming to elevate the efficiency of cosmetic packaging design for the mass customization product model.
基金Supported by the Program for Science and Technology Innovation Talents in Universities of Henan Province under Grant No13HASTIT046
文摘The cross sections of fragments produced in the 140 A MeV58,64Ni＋9 Be projectile fragmentation reactions are calculated by using the antisymmetrized molecular dynamics （AMD） model, the modified statistical abrasion- ablation （SAA） model, and the empirical EPAX2/EPAX3 formulae. The Gogny-gO interaction is taken as the effective nucleon-nucleon interaction in the AMD calculation, and the decays of fragments obtained from the AMD results are calculated by using the GEMINI code. The calculated cross sections of fragments are compared.
基金Supported by Government Science Research Item of Anyue County,China(2013-17)
文摘Using the meteorological data during 1971- 2013 and lemon growth and yield data during 2003- 2013 in Anyue,the suitability problem of lemon growth and correlation problem between meteorological factors and lemon growth in Anyue area were studied. According to relevance between the selected meteorological factors and yield of lemon,meteorological prediction model of lemon yield was established in Anyue,and the prediction accuracy was higher. The research had certain guiding significance for management work of lemon production in Anyue area.
文摘Using the typical characteristics of multi-layered marine and continental transitional gas reservoirs as a basis,a model is developed to predict the related well production rate.This model relies on the fractal theory of tortuous capillary bundles and can take into account multiple gas flow mechanisms at the micrometer and nanometer scales,as well as the flow characteristics in different types of thin layers(tight sandstone gas,shale gas,and coalbed gas).Moreover,a source-sink function concept and a pressure drop superposition principle are utilized to introduce a coupled flow model in the reservoir.A semi-analytical solution for the production rate is obtained using a matrix iteration method.A specific well is selected for fitting dynamic production data,and the calculation results show that the tight sandstone has the highest gas production per unit thickness compared with the other types of reservoirs.Moreover,desorption and diffusion of coalbed gas and shale gas can significantly contribute to gas production,and the daily production of these two gases decreases rapidly with decreasing reservoir pressure.Interestingly,the gas production from fractures exhibits an approximately U-shaped distribution,indicating the need to optimize the spacing between clusters during hydraulic fracturing to reduce the area of overlapping fracture control.The coal matrix water saturation significantly affects the coalbed gas production,with higher water saturation leading to lower production.
文摘To improve the productivity of oil wells,perforation technology is usually used to improve the productivity of horizontal wells in oilfield exploitation.After the perforation operation,the perforation channel around the wellbore will form a near-well high-permeability reservoir area with the penetration depth as the radius,that is,the formation has different permeability characteristics with the perforation depth as the dividing line.Generally,the permeability is measured by the permeability tester,but this approach has a high workload and limited application.In this paper,according to the reservoir characteristics of perforated horizontal wells,the reservoir is divided into two areas:the original reservoir area and the near-well high permeability reservoir area.Based on the theory of seepage mechanics and the formula of open hole productivity,the permeability calculation formula of near-well high permeability reservoir area with perforation parameters is deduced.According to the principle of seepage continuity,the seepage is regarded as the synthesis of two directions:the horizontal plane elliptic seepage field and the vertical plane radial seepage field,and the oil well productivity prediction model of the perforated horizontal well is established by partition.The model comparison demonstrates that the model is reasonable and feasible.To calculate and analyze the effect of oil well production and the law of influencing factors,actual production data of the oilfield are substituted into the oil well productivity formula.It can effectively guide the technical process design and effect prediction of perforated horizontal wells.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61374166,6153303)the Doctoral Fund of Ministry of Education of China(20120010110010)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(YS1404,JD1413,ZY1502)
文摘Interpretative structural model(ISM) can transform a multivariate problem into several sub-variable problems to analyze a complex industrial structure in a more efficient way by building a multi-level hierarchical structure model. To build an ISM of a production system, the partial correlation coefficient method is proposed to obtain the adjacency matrix, which can be transformed to ISM. According to estimation of correlation coefficient, the result can give actual variable correlations and eliminate effects of intermediate variables. Furthermore, this paper proposes an effective approach using ISM to analyze the main factors and basic mechanisms that affect the energy consumption in an ethylene production system. The case study shows that the proposed energy consumption analysis method is valid and efficient in improvement of energy efficiency in ethylene production.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.52304024,52274034,and 52204035)the Natural Science Foundation of Chongqing,China(Grant No.CSTB2023NSCQ-MSX0264)+1 种基金the Project of Science and Technology Research Program of Chongqing Municipal Education Commission,China(Grant Nos.KJQN202201517 and KJQN202001501)the Research Foundation of the Chongqing University of Science and Technology,China(Grant No.ckrc2022025).
文摘Accurately predicting the estimated ultimate recovery(EUR)of shale gas wells is key to formulating a shale gas reservoir development plan.However,in practice,determining the EUR remains challenging due to the complex dynamic characteristics of shale gas production,which first decreases rapidly and then slowly.In this study,based on material balance theory and equivalent seepage resistance theory and considering crucial factors including primary water,adsorption,and pore effects,a new production model for fractured horizontal shale gas wells is developed.The calculation process is designed by using Newton's iterative method.The shale gas well EUR prediction method is verified,and the factors influencing the EUR are analyzed.The results show that adsorption has a significant effect on production,especially on the Langmuir volume.Moreover,ignoring the influence of primary water,which exists in shale gas reservoirs in the form of bound water,results in an overestimation of the EUR.Furthermore,production positively correlates with the fracture half-length and the number of fractures,but the action mechanisms of these two factors differ.Unlike the number of fractures,which predominantly affects the initial stage of production,the fracture half-length has a more nuanced role.It is capable of altering the stimulated reservoir volume zone,thereby exerting influence over the entire production life cycle.
基金The CAS Strategic Pilot Science and Technology of China under contract Nos XDA11020205 and XDA05030403the National Project of Basic Sciences and Technology of China under contract Nos 2012FY112400 and 2013FY111200+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41276162,41130855,41276161 and 40906057the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province of China under contract No.S2011040000151
文摘Mesoscale eddies have been suggested to have an impact on biological carbon fixation in the South China Sea （SCS）. However, their overall contribution to primary production during the spring inter-monsoon pe riod is still unknown. Based on large-scale biological and environmental in situ observations and synchro nous remote sensing data, the distribution patterns of phytoplankton biomass and the primary production, and the role of mesoscale eddies in regulating primary production in different eddy-controlled waters were investigated. The results suggested that the surface chlorophyll a concentrations and water column inte grated primary production （IPP） are significantly higher in cyclonic eddies and lower in the anticyclonic eddies as compared to that in non-eddy waters. Although eddies could affect various environmental factors, such as nutrients, temperature and light availability, nutrient supply is suggested to be the most important one through which mesoscale eddies regulated the distribution patterns of phytoplankton biomass and pri mary production. The estimated IPP in cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies are about 29.5% higher and 16.6% lower than the total average in the whole study area, respectively, indicating that the promotion effect of mesoscale cold eddies on the primary production was much stronger than the inhibition effect of the warm eddies per unit area. Overall, mesoscale eddies are crucial physical processes that affect the biological car bon fixation and the distribution pattern of primary production in the SCS open sea, especially during the spring inter-monsoon period.
文摘There is a close theoretical similarity between water pressure gradients in aquifers and applied voltage gradients in aqueous solutions. A series of electric field analogue experiments has been conducted by focusing on symmetrical multi-lateral wells and dual-lateral wells of arbitrary angles between laterals. This research not only evaluates the productivity equations of a symmetrical multi-lateral well showing the effect of angles on productivity, but also proposes the concept of the multi-lateral productivity coefficient. Moreover, the multi-lateral productivity coefficient equation is designed to calculate the productivity of dual-lateral wells of variable angles, which is in turn supported by experiment. It also helps provide the experimental basis for optimizing the configuration, and building the semi-analytic productivity model, of multi-lateral wells.
