This paper gives the mathematical reason that the probit analysis method of toxicity measurement is reasonable, and proposes a new approach to compute the interval estimation of median lethal dose and 95% lethal dose....This paper gives the mathematical reason that the probit analysis method of toxicity measurement is reasonable, and proposes a new approach to compute the interval estimation of median lethal dose and 95% lethal dose. Based on the dose-response function of pesticides, this study firstly establishes a model of the data generating progress in toxicity test and proves that when the linear models of the logarithm of probability value and dose have been estimated, the weighted linear regression should be used, it is the reason why there is the heteroscedasticity of random disturbance term in the regression model, and the weight is right the reciprocal of the variance for random disturbance term. Secondly, based on the numerical simulation method, this paper gives a new approach for the interval estimation of median lethal dose and 95% lethal dose.展开更多
With a unique and large size of testing results of 1,842 samples collected from 12 wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) for 14 months through from low to high prevalence of COVID-19,the sensitivity of RT-qPCR detection ...With a unique and large size of testing results of 1,842 samples collected from 12 wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) for 14 months through from low to high prevalence of COVID-19,the sensitivity of RT-qPCR detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater that correspond to the communities was computed by using Probit analysis.This study determined the number of new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population required to detect SARS-CoV-2RNA in wastewater at defined probabilities and provided an evidence-based framework of wastewater-based epidemiology surveillance (WBE).Input data were positive and negative test results of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater samples and the corresponding new COVID-19 case rates per 100,000 population served by each WWTP.The analyses determined that RT-qPCR-based SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection threshold at 50%,80%and 99%probability required a median of 8 (range:4-19),18 (9-43),and 38 (17-97) of new COVID-19 cases/100,000,respectively.Namely,the positive detection rate at 50%,80%and 99%probability were 0.01%,0.02%,and 0.04%averagely for new cases in the population.This study improves understanding of the performance of WBE SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection using the large datasets and prolonged study period.Estimated COVID-19 burden at a community level that would result in a positive detection of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater is critical to support WBE application as a supplementary warning/monitoring system for COVID-19 prevention and control.展开更多
Salsola vermiculata is a highly palatable shrub and widely used in rangeland rehabilitation programs, but has short seed longevity. To identify the most cost effective storage method for S. vermiculata, experiments we...Salsola vermiculata is a highly palatable shrub and widely used in rangeland rehabilitation programs, but has short seed longevity. To identify the most cost effective storage method for S. vermiculata, experiments were carried out to test the effects of fruit bracts （wings）, temperature regimes, seed moisture and packaging methods on storage life. Seed samples were removed from storage at monthly intervals for testing and towards the end of the experiments samples were transferred from hermetic to ambient storage conditions and tested for germination. Experiment 1 continued for 1,140 days, Experiment 2 for 720 days. For de-winged seed, high moisture content increased seed longevity, suggesting that desiccation susceptibility is one of the causes of limited longevity in this species. Most longevity regression lines of winged seeds had negative intercepts suggesting increase in germination resulting from gradual dormancy-breaking. Drying and packaging alone increased longevity by 7.6 and 3.8 times in Experiments 1 and 2, respectively. Samples kept at lower temperature and lower moisture treatments survived longer under ambient conditions. Increased longevity by drying and vacuum packaging alone can provide simple, cost effective and environmentally friendly options for rangeland rehabilitation programs.展开更多
The problem of the firm bankruptcy prediction was investigated by foreign researchers in the 1930s and it still remains relevant. Since the publishing of Altman＇s （1968） major work, based on multiple discriminant a...The problem of the firm bankruptcy prediction was investigated by foreign researchers in the 1930s and it still remains relevant. Since the publishing of Altman＇s （1968） major work, based on multiple discriminant analysis （MDA）, this methodological area has considerably changed. Taking into consideration that new data have appeared in the course of time, companies＇ average size has changed, and the accounting standards have changed （Altman, Haldeman, ＆ Narayanan, 1977）, methods and models should be renewed so as to be appropriate for current situation. The purpose of this paper1 is to reveal factors causing bankruptcy and use models appropriate for prediction bankruptcy in the area of a construction industry during the financial crisis. This investigation has been carried out on the basis of logit and probit analysis. The main reasons of bankruptcy revealed in the course of this investigation are the following： （1） non-optimal capital structure formation; （2） ineffective liquidity management; （3） decrease in assets profitability; and （4） decrease in short-term assets turnover. The most reliable indicators which give warning of bankruptcy ahead of others are financial instability and liquidity ratios.展开更多
文摘This paper gives the mathematical reason that the probit analysis method of toxicity measurement is reasonable, and proposes a new approach to compute the interval estimation of median lethal dose and 95% lethal dose. Based on the dose-response function of pesticides, this study firstly establishes a model of the data generating progress in toxicity test and proves that when the linear models of the logarithm of probability value and dose have been estimated, the weighted linear regression should be used, it is the reason why there is the heteroscedasticity of random disturbance term in the regression model, and the weight is right the reciprocal of the variance for random disturbance term. Secondly, based on the numerical simulation method, this paper gives a new approach for the interval estimation of median lethal dose and 95% lethal dose.
基金supported by research grants from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research [grant number VR5-172701, 2020]Alberta Innovates and Alberta Health [grant number RES0051047, 2020]。
文摘With a unique and large size of testing results of 1,842 samples collected from 12 wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) for 14 months through from low to high prevalence of COVID-19,the sensitivity of RT-qPCR detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater that correspond to the communities was computed by using Probit analysis.This study determined the number of new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population required to detect SARS-CoV-2RNA in wastewater at defined probabilities and provided an evidence-based framework of wastewater-based epidemiology surveillance (WBE).Input data were positive and negative test results of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater samples and the corresponding new COVID-19 case rates per 100,000 population served by each WWTP.The analyses determined that RT-qPCR-based SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection threshold at 50%,80%and 99%probability required a median of 8 (range:4-19),18 (9-43),and 38 (17-97) of new COVID-19 cases/100,000,respectively.Namely,the positive detection rate at 50%,80%and 99%probability were 0.01%,0.02%,and 0.04%averagely for new cases in the population.This study improves understanding of the performance of WBE SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection using the large datasets and prolonged study period.Estimated COVID-19 burden at a community level that would result in a positive detection of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater is critical to support WBE application as a supplementary warning/monitoring system for COVID-19 prevention and control.
文摘Salsola vermiculata is a highly palatable shrub and widely used in rangeland rehabilitation programs, but has short seed longevity. To identify the most cost effective storage method for S. vermiculata, experiments were carried out to test the effects of fruit bracts （wings）, temperature regimes, seed moisture and packaging methods on storage life. Seed samples were removed from storage at monthly intervals for testing and towards the end of the experiments samples were transferred from hermetic to ambient storage conditions and tested for germination. Experiment 1 continued for 1,140 days, Experiment 2 for 720 days. For de-winged seed, high moisture content increased seed longevity, suggesting that desiccation susceptibility is one of the causes of limited longevity in this species. Most longevity regression lines of winged seeds had negative intercepts suggesting increase in germination resulting from gradual dormancy-breaking. Drying and packaging alone increased longevity by 7.6 and 3.8 times in Experiments 1 and 2, respectively. Samples kept at lower temperature and lower moisture treatments survived longer under ambient conditions. Increased longevity by drying and vacuum packaging alone can provide simple, cost effective and environmentally friendly options for rangeland rehabilitation programs.
文摘The problem of the firm bankruptcy prediction was investigated by foreign researchers in the 1930s and it still remains relevant. Since the publishing of Altman＇s （1968） major work, based on multiple discriminant analysis （MDA）, this methodological area has considerably changed. Taking into consideration that new data have appeared in the course of time, companies＇ average size has changed, and the accounting standards have changed （Altman, Haldeman, ＆ Narayanan, 1977）, methods and models should be renewed so as to be appropriate for current situation. The purpose of this paper1 is to reveal factors causing bankruptcy and use models appropriate for prediction bankruptcy in the area of a construction industry during the financial crisis. This investigation has been carried out on the basis of logit and probit analysis. The main reasons of bankruptcy revealed in the course of this investigation are the following： （1） non-optimal capital structure formation; （2） ineffective liquidity management; （3） decrease in assets profitability; and （4） decrease in short-term assets turnover. The most reliable indicators which give warning of bankruptcy ahead of others are financial instability and liquidity ratios.
