Starting with the Aalen （1989） version of Cox （1972） ＇regression model＇ we show the method for construction of ＂any＂ joint survival function given marginal survival functions. Basically, however, we restrict o...Starting with the Aalen （1989） version of Cox （1972） ＇regression model＇ we show the method for construction of ＂any＂ joint survival function given marginal survival functions. Basically, however, we restrict ourselves to model positive stochastic dependences only with the general assumption that the underlying two marginal random variables are centered on the set of nonnegative real values. With only these assumptions we obtain nice general characterization of bivariate probability distributions that may play similar role as the copula methodology. Examples of reliability and biomedical applications are given.展开更多
The exploration of Mars would heavily rely on Martian rocks mechanics and engineering technology.As the mechanical property of Martian rocks is uncertain,it is of utmost importance to predict the probability distribut...The exploration of Mars would heavily rely on Martian rocks mechanics and engineering technology.As the mechanical property of Martian rocks is uncertain,it is of utmost importance to predict the probability distribution of Martian rocks mechanical property for the success of Mars exploration.In this paper,a fast and accurate probability distribution method for predicting the macroscale elastic modulus of Martian rocks was proposed by integrating the microscale rock mechanical experiments(micro-RME),accurate grain-based modeling(AGBM)and upscaling methods based on reliability principles.Firstly,the microstructure of NWA12564 Martian sample and elastic modulus of each mineral were obtained by micro-RME with TESCAN integrated mineral analyzer(TIMA)and nanoindentation.The best probability distribution function of the minerals was determined by Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S)test.Secondly,based on best distribution function of each mineral,the Monte Carlo simulations(MCS)and upscaling methods were implemented to obtain the probability distribution of upscaled elastic modulus.Thirdly,the correlation between the upscaled elastic modulus and macroscale elastic modulus obtained by AGBM was established.The accurate probability distribution of the macroscale elastic modulus was obtained by this correlation relationship.The proposed method can predict the probability distribution of Martian rocks mechanical property with any size and shape samples.展开更多
The generation and propagation mechanism of strong nonlinear waves in the South China Sea is an essential research area. In this study, the third-generation wave model WAVEWATCH Ⅲ is employed to simulate wave fields ...The generation and propagation mechanism of strong nonlinear waves in the South China Sea is an essential research area. In this study, the third-generation wave model WAVEWATCH Ⅲ is employed to simulate wave fields under extreme sea states. The model, integrating the ST6 source term, is validated against observed data, demonstrating its credibility. The spatial distribution of the occurrence probability of strong nonlinear waves during typhoons is shown, and the waves in the straits and the northeastern part of the South China Sea show strong nonlinear characteristics. The high-order spectral model HOS-ocean is employed to simulate the random wave surface series beneath five different platform areas. The waves during the typhoon exhibit strong nonlinear characteristics, and freak waves exist. The space-varying probability model is established to describe the short-term probability distribution of nonlinear wave series. The exceedance probability distributions of the wave surface beneath different platform areas are compared and analyzed. The results show that with an increase in the platform area, the probability of a strong nonlinear wave beneath the platform increases.展开更多
In order to reveal the complex network characteristics and evolution principle of China aviation network, the probability distribution and evolution trace of ratio of China aviation network edge vertices degree were s...In order to reveal the complex network characteristics and evolution principle of China aviation network, the probability distribution and evolution trace of ratio of China aviation network edge vertices degree were studied based on the statistics data of China civil aviation network in 1988, 1994, 2001, 2008 and 2015. According to the theory and method of complex network, the network system was constructed with the city where the airport was located as the network node and the route between cities as the edge of the network. Based on the statistical data, the ratio of edge vertices degree in China aviation network in 1988, 1994, 2001, 2008 and 2015 were calculated. Using the probability statistical analysis method and regression analysis approach, it was found that the ratio of edge vertices degree had linear probability distribution and the two parameters of the probability distribution had linear evolution trace.展开更多
This study proposes a method for calculating the probability distribution of structural responses at different intensities using the endurance time(ET)method.The results can be used to calculate the fragility curve of...This study proposes a method for calculating the probability distribution of structural responses at different intensities using the endurance time(ET)method.The results can be used to calculate the fragility curve of structural collapse.The ET method involves dynamic analysis of a structure under an intensifying record over time.While conventional ET methods can determine the median of the structural response,they lack the ability to calculate its dispersion.To address this limitation,the present study utilizes ET analysis and single-degree-of-freedom(SDOF)systems to develop a method that considers the record-to-record variability for calculating the probability distribution of structural response.The accuracy of this method is evaluated by comparing it with the incremental dynamic analysis(IDA)method using special moment frames.The results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves a reasonably accurate estimation of dispersion while significantly reducing the computational burden(by approximately 95%)compared to the IDA method.展开更多
Models that predict a forest stand’s evolution are essential for developing plans for sustainable management.A simple mathematical framework was developed that con-siders the individual tree and stand basal area unde...Models that predict a forest stand’s evolution are essential for developing plans for sustainable management.A simple mathematical framework was developed that con-siders the individual tree and stand basal area under random resource competition and is based on two assumptions:(1)a sigmoid-type stochastic process governs tree and stand basal area dynamics of living and dying trees,and(2)the total area that a tree may potentially occupy determines the number of trees per hectare.The most effective method to satisfy these requirements is formalizing each tree diameter and potentially occupied area using Gompertz-type stochastic differential equations governed by fixed and mixed-effect parameters.Data from permanent experimental plots from long-term Lithuania experiments were used to construct the tree and stand basal area models.The new models were relatively unbiased for live trees of all species,including silver birch(Betula pen-dula Roth)and downy birch(Betula pubescens Ehrh.),[spruce(Picea abies),and pine(Pinus sylvestris)].Less reliable predic-tions were made for the basal area of dying trees.Pines gave the highest accuracy prediction of mean basal area among all live trees.The mean basal area prediction for all dying trees was lower than that for live trees.Among all species,pine also had the best average basal area prediction accuracy for live trees.Newly developed basal area growth and yield models can be recommended despite their complex formulation and implementation challenges,particularly in situations when data is scarce.This is because the newly observed plot provides sufficient information to calibrate random effects.展开更多
Understanding the historical development of civilization in the Western Regions of China necessitates a detailed chronology and an in-depth analysis of the developmental dynamics of Ancient Loulan City(LA).However,sys...Understanding the historical development of civilization in the Western Regions of China necessitates a detailed chronology and an in-depth analysis of the developmental dynamics of Ancient Loulan City(LA).However,systematic chronological investigations of specific archaeological sites within LA remain scarce,leaving the construction and occupation dates of many sites,along with the urban extent and development phases,unclear.To address these gaps,we established the Loulan Radiocarbon Dating Database and applied the summed probability distribution(SPD)method to reconstruct the chronology of individual sites and the urban development trajectory of LA.Our findings reveal the following:(1)Between~500 BC and~200 BC,only site units LA-Ⅰand LA-Ⅷexisted,representing a nascent village phase;(2)From~200 BC to~AD 100,the construction of LA-IV marked the transition to an urban phase,as evidenced by abundant plant and animal remains that indicate a blend of agricultural and pastoral practices;(3)From~AD 100 to~AD 400,the remaining site units were constructed,occupied,and utilized,signifying the urban phase.This period saw the emergence of complex social stratification,with roles such as monks,soldiers,officials,and blacksmiths shaping the city's structure.These chronological insights provide a new understanding of LA's urban evolution,offering critical evidence for its socio-economic transformation.展开更多
It is noted that there has been little research to compare volume-based and number-based soil particle size distributions （PSDs）. Our objectives were to characterize the scaling properties and the possible connectio...It is noted that there has been little research to compare volume-based and number-based soil particle size distributions （PSDs）. Our objectives were to characterize the scaling properties and the possible connections between volume-based and number-based PSDs by applying single and joint multifractal analysis. Twelve soil samples were taken from selected sites in Northwest China and their PSDs were analyzed using laser diffractometry. The results indicated that the volume-based PSDs of all 12 samples and the number-based PSDs of 4 samples had multifractal scalings for moment order -6 〈 q 〈： 6. Some empirical relationships were identified between the extreme probability values, maximum probability （Pmax）, minimum probability （Pmin）, and Pmax/Pmin, and the multifractal indices, the difference and the ratio of generalized dimensions at q = 0 and 1 （Do - D1 and D1/Do）, maximum and minimum singularity strength （αmax and OZmin） and their difference （αmax - αmin, spectrum width）, and asymmetric index （RD）. An increase in Pmax generally resulted in corresponding increases of Do - D1, αmax, αmax - αmin, and RD, which indicated that a large Pmax increased the multifractality of a distribution. Joint multifractal analysis showed that there was significant correlation between the scaling indices of volume-based and number-based PSDs. The multifractality indices indicated that for a given soil, the volume-based PSD was more homogeneous than the number-based PSD, and more likely to display monofractal rather than multifractal scaling.展开更多
The joint probability distribution of wind speed and significant wave height in the Bohai Bay was investigated by comparing the Gurnbel logistic model, the Gumbel-Hougaard （GH） copula function, and the Clayton copul...The joint probability distribution of wind speed and significant wave height in the Bohai Bay was investigated by comparing the Gurnbel logistic model, the Gumbel-Hougaard （GH） copula function, and the Clayton copula function. Twenty years of wind data from 1989 to 2008 were collected from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts （ECMWF） database and the blended wind data of the Quick Scatterometer （QSCAT） satellite data set and re-analysis data from the United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP）. Several typhoons were taken into account and merged with the background wind fields from the ECMWF or QSCAT/NCEP database. The 20-year data of significant wave height were calculated with the unstructured-grid version of the third-generation wind wave model Simulating WAves Nearshore （SWAN） under extreme wind process conditions. The Gumbel distribution was used for univariate and marginal distributions. The distribution parameters were estimated with the method of L-moments. Based on the marginal distributions, the joint probability distributions, the associated return periods, and the conditional probability distributions were obtained. The GH copula function was found to be optimal according to the ordinary least squares （OLS） test. The results show that wind waves are the prevailing type of wave in the Bohai Bay.展开更多
The coupling model of major influence factors such state affecting the chloride diffusion process in concrete is as environmental relative humidity, load-induced crack and stress discussed. The probability distributio...The coupling model of major influence factors such state affecting the chloride diffusion process in concrete is as environmental relative humidity, load-induced crack and stress discussed. The probability distributions of the critical chloride concentration Cc, the chloride diffusion coefficient D, and the surface chloride concentration Cs were determined based on the collected natural exposure data. And the estimation of probability of corrosion initiation considering the coupling effects of influence factors is presented. It is found that the relative humidity and curing time are the most effective factors affecting the probability of corrosion initiation before and after 10 years of exposure time. At the same exposure time, the influence of load-induced crack and stress state on the probability of corrosion initiation is obvious, in which the effect of crack is the most one展开更多
Lift-off velocity of saltating sand particles in wind-blown sand located at 1.0 mm above the sand bed surface was measured using a phase Doppler particle analyzer in a wind tunnel. The results show that the probabilit...Lift-off velocity of saltating sand particles in wind-blown sand located at 1.0 mm above the sand bed surface was measured using a phase Doppler particle analyzer in a wind tunnel. The results show that the probability distribution of lift-off velocity can be expressed as a lognormal function, while that of lift-off angle follows an exponential function. The probability distribution of lift-off angle conditioned for each lift-off velocity also follows an exponential function, with a slope that becomes steeper with increasing lift-off velocity. This implies that the probability distribution of lift-off velocity is strongly dependent on the lift-off angle. However, these lift-off parameters are generally treated as an independent joint probability distribution in the literature. Numerical simulations were carried out to investigate the effects of conditional versus independent joint probability distributions on the vertical sand mass flux distribution. The simulation results derived from the conditional joint probability distribution agree much better with experimental data than those from the independent ones. Thus, it is better to describe the lift-off velocity of saltating sand particles using the conditional joint probability distribution. These results improve our understanding of saltation processes in wind-blown sand.展开更多
The equation of two-dimensional fiber direction vector was solved theoretically to give the fiber orientation distri- bution in simple shear flow, flow with two direction shears, extensional flow and arbitrary planar ...The equation of two-dimensional fiber direction vector was solved theoretically to give the fiber orientation distri- bution in simple shear flow, flow with two direction shears, extensional flow and arbitrary planar incompressible flow. The Fok- ker-Planck equation was solved numerically to validify the theoretical solutions. The stable orientation and orientation period of fiber were obtained. The results showed that the fiber orientation distribution is dependent on the relative not absolute magnitude of the matrix rate-of-strain of flow. The effect of fiber aspect ratio on the orientation distribution of fiber is insignificant in most conditions except the simple shear case. It was proved that the results for a planar flow could be generalized to the case of 3-D fiber direction vector.展开更多
By large eddy simulation （LES）, turbulent databases of channel flows at different Reynolds numbers were established. Then, the probability distribution functions of the streamwise and wall-normal velocity fluctuatio...By large eddy simulation （LES）, turbulent databases of channel flows at different Reynolds numbers were established. Then, the probability distribution functions of the streamwise and wall-normal velocity fluctuations were obtained and compared with the corresponding normal distributions. By hypothesis test, the deviation from the normal distribution was analyzed quantitatively. The skewness and flatness factors were also calculated. And the variations of these two factors in the viscous sublayer, buffer layer and log-law layer were discussed. Still illustrated were the relations between the probability distribution functions and the burst events-sweep of high-speed fluids and ejection of low-speed fluidsIin the viscous sub-layer, buffer layer and loglaw layer. Finally the variations of the probability distribution functions with Reynolds number were examined.展开更多
This paper presents the probability distribution of the slamming pressure from an experimental study of regular wave slamming on an elastically supported horizontal deck. The time series of the slamming pressure durin...This paper presents the probability distribution of the slamming pressure from an experimental study of regular wave slamming on an elastically supported horizontal deck. The time series of the slamming pressure during the wave impact were first obtained through statistical analyses on experimental data. The exceeding probability distribution of the maximum slamming pressure peak and distribution parameters were analyzed, and the results show that the exceeding probability distribution of the maximum slamming pressure peak accords with the three-parameter Weibull distribution. Furthermore, the range and relationships of the distribution parameters were studied. The sum of the location parameter D and the scale parameter L was approximately equal to 1.0, and the exceeding probability was more than 36.79% when the random peak was equal to the sample average during the wave impact. The variation of the distribution parameters and slamming pressure under different model conditions were comprehensively presented, and the parameter values of the Weibull distribution of wave-slamming pressure peaks were different due to different test models. The parameter values were found to decrease due to the increased stiffness of the elastic support. The damage criterion of the structure model caused by the wave impact was initially discussed, and the structure model was destroyed when the average slamming time was greater than a certain value during the duration of the wave impact. The conclusions of the experimental study were then described.展开更多
In the equatorial region,deep amplitude fading in global positioning system(GPS)signals frequently occurs during the strong ionospheric scintillation,it can lead to the loss of lock in GPS carrier tracking loops,and r...In the equatorial region,deep amplitude fading in global positioning system(GPS)signals frequently occurs during the strong ionospheric scintillation,it can lead to the loss of lock in GPS carrier tracking loops,and result in increased positioning error and even navigation interruption.The relationships between amplitude scintillation indices and detrended carrier frequency are investigated,based on GPS L1 C/A signals during the last peak of the solar cycle at the low latitude site of São Josédos Campos,Brazil(23.2S,45.9W)from 2013 to 2015.Corresponding mathematic model of the probability distribution function is built for the first time to provide statistical analysis on the above relationships.The results show that the standard carrier frequencies reveal an almost linear relation with the amplitude scintillation indices.Moreover,the frequency widths of detrended frequency are proportional to levels of amplitude scintillation when the value of the peak probability is lower than the corresponding boundary.A conclusion can be drawn that different levels of amplitude scintillation will influence the fluctuation of the carrier frequency.The analysis will provide useful guidance to set the receiver’s bandwidth with respect to the different scintillation levels and design the advanced tracking algorithms to improve the robustness and precision of the GPS receiver.展开更多
The probability distribution function （PDF） of a passive tracer, forced by a ＂mean gradient＂, is studied. First, we take two theoretical approaches, the Lagrangian and the conditional closure formalisms, to study ...The probability distribution function （PDF） of a passive tracer, forced by a ＂mean gradient＂, is studied. First, we take two theoretical approaches, the Lagrangian and the conditional closure formalisms, to study the PDFs of such an externally forced passive tracer. Then, we carry out numerical simulations for an idealized random flow on a sphere and for European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts （ECMWF） stratospheric winds to test whether the mean-gradient model can be applied to studying stratospheric tracer mixing in midlatitude surf zones, in which a weak and poleward zonal-mean gradient is maintained by tracer leakage through polar and tropical mixing barriers, and whether the PDFs of tracer fluctuations in midlatitudes are consistent with the theoretical predictions. The numerical simulations show that when diffusive dissipation is balanced by the mean-gradient forcing, the PDF in the random flow and the Southern-Hemisphere PDFs in ECMWF winds show time-invariant exponential tails, consistent with theoretical predictions. In the Northern Hemisphere, the PDFs exhibit non-Gaussian tails. However, the PDF tails are not consistent with theoretical expectations. The long-term behavior of the PDF tails of the forced tracer is compared to that of a decaying tracer. It is found that the PDF tails of the decaying tracer are time-dependent, and evolve toward flatter than exponential.展开更多
In this paper, in terms of the technique of integration within an ordered product （IWOP） of operators and the properties of the inverses of q-deformed annihilation and creation operators, normalizable q-analogue of ...In this paper, in terms of the technique of integration within an ordered product （IWOP） of operators and the properties of the inverses of q-deformed annihilation and creation operators, normalizable q-analogue of the squeezed one-photon state, which is quite different from one introduced by Song and Fan [Int. 3. Theor. Phys. 41 （2002） 695], is constructed. Moreover, the Wigner function and phase probability distribution of q-analogue of the squeezed one-photon state are examined.展开更多
The configurational properties of tail-like polymer chains with one end attached to a flat surface are studied by using dynamic Monte Carlo technique. We find that the probability distribution of the free end in z dir...The configurational properties of tail-like polymer chains with one end attached to a flat surface are studied by using dynamic Monte Carlo technique. We find that the probability distribution of the free end in z direction P（Rz） and the density profile p（z） can be scaled approximately by a factor β to be a length independent function for both random walking （RW） and self-avoiding walking （SAW） tail-like chains, where the factor β is related to the mean square end-to-end distance 〈RE〉. The scaled P（Rz） of the SAW chain roughly overlaps that of the RW chain, but the scaled p（z） of the SAW chain locates at smaller βz than that of the RW chain.展开更多
The probability distribution of wave heights under the assumption of narrowband linear wave theory follows the Rayleigh distribution and the statistical relationships between some characteristic wave heights, derived ...The probability distribution of wave heights under the assumption of narrowband linear wave theory follows the Rayleigh distribution and the statistical relationships between some characteristic wave heights, derived from this distribution, are widely used for the treatment of realistic wind waves. However, the bandwidth of wave frequency influences the probability distribution of wave heights. In this paper, a wave-spectrum-width parameter B was introduced into the JONSWAP spectrum. This facilitated the construction of a wind-wave spectrum and the reconstruction of wind-wave time series for various growth stages, based on which the probability density distributions of the wind-wave heights were studied statistically. The distribution curves deviated slightly from the theoretical Rayleigh distribution with increasing B. The probability that a wave height exceeded a certain value was clearly smaller than the theoretical value for B≥0.3, and the difference between them increased with the threshold value. The relation between the Hs/σ ratio and B was investigated statistically, which revealed that the Hs/σ ratio deviated from 4.005 and declined with B. When B reached 0.698 1, the Hs/σ ratio was 3.825, which is about 95.5% of its original value. This indicates an overestimation in the a potential method for improving the accuracy of the Hs extremely large waves under severe sea states. prediction of Hs from Hs=4.005σ, and provides remote sensing retrieval algorithm, critical for展开更多
Laboratory experiments are conducted to study the probability distribution of surface elevation for wind waves and the convergence is discussed of the Gram-Charlier series in describing the surface elevation distribut...Laboratory experiments are conducted to study the probability distribution of surface elevation for wind waves and the convergence is discussed of the Gram-Charlier series in describing the surface elevation distribution. Results show that the agreement between the Gram-Charlier series and the observed distribution becomes better and better as the truncated order of the series increases in a certain range, which is contrary to the phenomenon observed by Huang and Long (1980). It is also shown that the Gram-Charlier series is sensitive to the anomalies in the data set which will make the agreement worse if they are not preprocessed appropriately. Negative values of the probability distribution expressed by the Gram-Charlier series in some ranges of surface elevations are discussed, but the absolute values of the negative values as well as the ranges of their occurrence become smaller gradually as more and mote terms are included. Therefore the negative values will have no evident effect on the form of the whole surface elevation distribution when the series is truncated at higher orders. Furthermore, a simple recurrence formula is obtained to calculate the coefficients of the Gram-Charlier series in order to extend the Gram-Charlier series to high orders conveniently.展开更多
文摘Starting with the Aalen （1989） version of Cox （1972） ＇regression model＇ we show the method for construction of ＂any＂ joint survival function given marginal survival functions. Basically, however, we restrict ourselves to model positive stochastic dependences only with the general assumption that the underlying two marginal random variables are centered on the set of nonnegative real values. With only these assumptions we obtain nice general characterization of bivariate probability distributions that may play similar role as the copula methodology. Examples of reliability and biomedical applications are given.
文摘The exploration of Mars would heavily rely on Martian rocks mechanics and engineering technology.As the mechanical property of Martian rocks is uncertain,it is of utmost importance to predict the probability distribution of Martian rocks mechanical property for the success of Mars exploration.In this paper,a fast and accurate probability distribution method for predicting the macroscale elastic modulus of Martian rocks was proposed by integrating the microscale rock mechanical experiments(micro-RME),accurate grain-based modeling(AGBM)and upscaling methods based on reliability principles.Firstly,the microstructure of NWA12564 Martian sample and elastic modulus of each mineral were obtained by micro-RME with TESCAN integrated mineral analyzer(TIMA)and nanoindentation.The best probability distribution function of the minerals was determined by Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S)test.Secondly,based on best distribution function of each mineral,the Monte Carlo simulations(MCS)and upscaling methods were implemented to obtain the probability distribution of upscaled elastic modulus.Thirdly,the correlation between the upscaled elastic modulus and macroscale elastic modulus obtained by AGBM was established.The accurate probability distribution of the macroscale elastic modulus was obtained by this correlation relationship.The proposed method can predict the probability distribution of Martian rocks mechanical property with any size and shape samples.
基金financially supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2022YFC3104205)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42377457).
文摘The generation and propagation mechanism of strong nonlinear waves in the South China Sea is an essential research area. In this study, the third-generation wave model WAVEWATCH Ⅲ is employed to simulate wave fields under extreme sea states. The model, integrating the ST6 source term, is validated against observed data, demonstrating its credibility. The spatial distribution of the occurrence probability of strong nonlinear waves during typhoons is shown, and the waves in the straits and the northeastern part of the South China Sea show strong nonlinear characteristics. The high-order spectral model HOS-ocean is employed to simulate the random wave surface series beneath five different platform areas. The waves during the typhoon exhibit strong nonlinear characteristics, and freak waves exist. The space-varying probability model is established to describe the short-term probability distribution of nonlinear wave series. The exceedance probability distributions of the wave surface beneath different platform areas are compared and analyzed. The results show that with an increase in the platform area, the probability of a strong nonlinear wave beneath the platform increases.
文摘In order to reveal the complex network characteristics and evolution principle of China aviation network, the probability distribution and evolution trace of ratio of China aviation network edge vertices degree were studied based on the statistics data of China civil aviation network in 1988, 1994, 2001, 2008 and 2015. According to the theory and method of complex network, the network system was constructed with the city where the airport was located as the network node and the route between cities as the edge of the network. Based on the statistical data, the ratio of edge vertices degree in China aviation network in 1988, 1994, 2001, 2008 and 2015 were calculated. Using the probability statistical analysis method and regression analysis approach, it was found that the ratio of edge vertices degree had linear probability distribution and the two parameters of the probability distribution had linear evolution trace.
文摘This study proposes a method for calculating the probability distribution of structural responses at different intensities using the endurance time(ET)method.The results can be used to calculate the fragility curve of structural collapse.The ET method involves dynamic analysis of a structure under an intensifying record over time.While conventional ET methods can determine the median of the structural response,they lack the ability to calculate its dispersion.To address this limitation,the present study utilizes ET analysis and single-degree-of-freedom(SDOF)systems to develop a method that considers the record-to-record variability for calculating the probability distribution of structural response.The accuracy of this method is evaluated by comparing it with the incremental dynamic analysis(IDA)method using special moment frames.The results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves a reasonably accurate estimation of dispersion while significantly reducing the computational burden(by approximately 95%)compared to the IDA method.
基金supported by the Horizon Europe Framework Programme(HORIZON),call Teaming for Excellence(HORIZONWIDERA-2022-ACCESS-01-two-stage)-Creation of the Centre of Excellence in Smart Forestry“Forest 4.0”No.101059985″This research was cofunded by FOREST 4.0-“Ekscelencijos centras tvariai miško bioekonomikai vystyti”(Nr.10-042-P-0002).
文摘Models that predict a forest stand’s evolution are essential for developing plans for sustainable management.A simple mathematical framework was developed that con-siders the individual tree and stand basal area under random resource competition and is based on two assumptions:(1)a sigmoid-type stochastic process governs tree and stand basal area dynamics of living and dying trees,and(2)the total area that a tree may potentially occupy determines the number of trees per hectare.The most effective method to satisfy these requirements is formalizing each tree diameter and potentially occupied area using Gompertz-type stochastic differential equations governed by fixed and mixed-effect parameters.Data from permanent experimental plots from long-term Lithuania experiments were used to construct the tree and stand basal area models.The new models were relatively unbiased for live trees of all species,including silver birch(Betula pen-dula Roth)and downy birch(Betula pubescens Ehrh.),[spruce(Picea abies),and pine(Pinus sylvestris)].Less reliable predic-tions were made for the basal area of dying trees.Pines gave the highest accuracy prediction of mean basal area among all live trees.The mean basal area prediction for all dying trees was lower than that for live trees.Among all species,pine also had the best average basal area prediction accuracy for live trees.Newly developed basal area growth and yield models can be recommended despite their complex formulation and implementation challenges,particularly in situations when data is scarce.This is because the newly observed plot provides sufficient information to calibrate random effects.
基金Strategy Priority Research Program(Category B)of Chinese Academy of Sciences No.XDB0710000National Key Research and Development Program of China,No.2022YFF0801502National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42071103,No.42471175,No.42242104。
文摘Understanding the historical development of civilization in the Western Regions of China necessitates a detailed chronology and an in-depth analysis of the developmental dynamics of Ancient Loulan City(LA).However,systematic chronological investigations of specific archaeological sites within LA remain scarce,leaving the construction and occupation dates of many sites,along with the urban extent and development phases,unclear.To address these gaps,we established the Loulan Radiocarbon Dating Database and applied the summed probability distribution(SPD)method to reconstruct the chronology of individual sites and the urban development trajectory of LA.Our findings reveal the following:(1)Between~500 BC and~200 BC,only site units LA-Ⅰand LA-Ⅷexisted,representing a nascent village phase;(2)From~200 BC to~AD 100,the construction of LA-IV marked the transition to an urban phase,as evidenced by abundant plant and animal remains that indicate a blend of agricultural and pastoral practices;(3)From~AD 100 to~AD 400,the remaining site units were constructed,occupied,and utilized,signifying the urban phase.This period saw the emergence of complex social stratification,with roles such as monks,soldiers,officials,and blacksmiths shaping the city's structure.These chronological insights provide a new understanding of LA's urban evolution,offering critical evidence for its socio-economic transformation.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 50709028)the Basic Foundation for Scientific Researchof Northwest Agriculture and Forestry Sci-Tech University,China (No. QN2009087)
文摘It is noted that there has been little research to compare volume-based and number-based soil particle size distributions （PSDs）. Our objectives were to characterize the scaling properties and the possible connections between volume-based and number-based PSDs by applying single and joint multifractal analysis. Twelve soil samples were taken from selected sites in Northwest China and their PSDs were analyzed using laser diffractometry. The results indicated that the volume-based PSDs of all 12 samples and the number-based PSDs of 4 samples had multifractal scalings for moment order -6 〈 q 〈： 6. Some empirical relationships were identified between the extreme probability values, maximum probability （Pmax）, minimum probability （Pmin）, and Pmax/Pmin, and the multifractal indices, the difference and the ratio of generalized dimensions at q = 0 and 1 （Do - D1 and D1/Do）, maximum and minimum singularity strength （αmax and OZmin） and their difference （αmax - αmin, spectrum width）, and asymmetric index （RD）. An increase in Pmax generally resulted in corresponding increases of Do - D1, αmax, αmax - αmin, and RD, which indicated that a large Pmax increased the multifractality of a distribution. Joint multifractal analysis showed that there was significant correlation between the scaling indices of volume-based and number-based PSDs. The multifractality indices indicated that for a given soil, the volume-based PSD was more homogeneous than the number-based PSD, and more likely to display monofractal rather than multifractal scaling.
基金supported by the Science Fund for Creative Research Groups of the National Natural ScienceFoundation of China (Grant No. 51021004)the National High Technology Research and DevelopmentProgram of China (863 Program, Grants No. 2012AA112509 and 2012AA051702)
文摘The joint probability distribution of wind speed and significant wave height in the Bohai Bay was investigated by comparing the Gurnbel logistic model, the Gumbel-Hougaard （GH） copula function, and the Clayton copula function. Twenty years of wind data from 1989 to 2008 were collected from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts （ECMWF） database and the blended wind data of the Quick Scatterometer （QSCAT） satellite data set and re-analysis data from the United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP）. Several typhoons were taken into account and merged with the background wind fields from the ECMWF or QSCAT/NCEP database. The 20-year data of significant wave height were calculated with the unstructured-grid version of the third-generation wind wave model Simulating WAves Nearshore （SWAN） under extreme wind process conditions. The Gumbel distribution was used for univariate and marginal distributions. The distribution parameters were estimated with the method of L-moments. Based on the marginal distributions, the joint probability distributions, the associated return periods, and the conditional probability distributions were obtained. The GH copula function was found to be optimal according to the ordinary least squares （OLS） test. The results show that wind waves are the prevailing type of wave in the Bohai Bay.
基金Project(50925829) supported by the National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars of ChinaProject(50908148) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProjects(2009-K4-23,2010-11-33) supported by the Research of Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development of China
文摘The coupling model of major influence factors such state affecting the chloride diffusion process in concrete is as environmental relative humidity, load-induced crack and stress discussed. The probability distributions of the critical chloride concentration Cc, the chloride diffusion coefficient D, and the surface chloride concentration Cs were determined based on the collected natural exposure data. And the estimation of probability of corrosion initiation considering the coupling effects of influence factors is presented. It is found that the relative humidity and curing time are the most effective factors affecting the probability of corrosion initiation before and after 10 years of exposure time. At the same exposure time, the influence of load-induced crack and stress state on the probability of corrosion initiation is obvious, in which the effect of crack is the most one
基金supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China(GK201503053)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41601002)
文摘Lift-off velocity of saltating sand particles in wind-blown sand located at 1.0 mm above the sand bed surface was measured using a phase Doppler particle analyzer in a wind tunnel. The results show that the probability distribution of lift-off velocity can be expressed as a lognormal function, while that of lift-off angle follows an exponential function. The probability distribution of lift-off angle conditioned for each lift-off velocity also follows an exponential function, with a slope that becomes steeper with increasing lift-off velocity. This implies that the probability distribution of lift-off velocity is strongly dependent on the lift-off angle. However, these lift-off parameters are generally treated as an independent joint probability distribution in the literature. Numerical simulations were carried out to investigate the effects of conditional versus independent joint probability distributions on the vertical sand mass flux distribution. The simulation results derived from the conditional joint probability distribution agree much better with experimental data than those from the independent ones. Thus, it is better to describe the lift-off velocity of saltating sand particles using the conditional joint probability distribution. These results improve our understanding of saltation processes in wind-blown sand.
基金Project (No. 10372090) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘The equation of two-dimensional fiber direction vector was solved theoretically to give the fiber orientation distri- bution in simple shear flow, flow with two direction shears, extensional flow and arbitrary planar incompressible flow. The Fok- ker-Planck equation was solved numerically to validify the theoretical solutions. The stable orientation and orientation period of fiber were obtained. The results showed that the fiber orientation distribution is dependent on the relative not absolute magnitude of the matrix rate-of-strain of flow. The effect of fiber aspect ratio on the orientation distribution of fiber is insignificant in most conditions except the simple shear case. It was proved that the results for a planar flow could be generalized to the case of 3-D fiber direction vector.
文摘By large eddy simulation （LES）, turbulent databases of channel flows at different Reynolds numbers were established. Then, the probability distribution functions of the streamwise and wall-normal velocity fluctuations were obtained and compared with the corresponding normal distributions. By hypothesis test, the deviation from the normal distribution was analyzed quantitatively. The skewness and flatness factors were also calculated. And the variations of these two factors in the viscous sublayer, buffer layer and log-law layer were discussed. Still illustrated were the relations between the probability distribution functions and the burst events-sweep of high-speed fluids and ejection of low-speed fluidsIin the viscous sub-layer, buffer layer and loglaw layer. Finally the variations of the probability distribution functions with Reynolds number were examined.
基金support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 51579103 and 51709118)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (No. 2017M612669)+2 种基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (No. 2017BQ089)the Key Scientific Research Projects in Henan Province (No. 18B570005)the Open Research Foundation of Key Laboratory of the Pearl River Estuarine Dynamics and Associated Process Regulation, Ministry of Water Resources ([2017]KJ01)
文摘This paper presents the probability distribution of the slamming pressure from an experimental study of regular wave slamming on an elastically supported horizontal deck. The time series of the slamming pressure during the wave impact were first obtained through statistical analyses on experimental data. The exceeding probability distribution of the maximum slamming pressure peak and distribution parameters were analyzed, and the results show that the exceeding probability distribution of the maximum slamming pressure peak accords with the three-parameter Weibull distribution. Furthermore, the range and relationships of the distribution parameters were studied. The sum of the location parameter D and the scale parameter L was approximately equal to 1.0, and the exceeding probability was more than 36.79% when the random peak was equal to the sample average during the wave impact. The variation of the distribution parameters and slamming pressure under different model conditions were comprehensively presented, and the parameter values of the Weibull distribution of wave-slamming pressure peaks were different due to different test models. The parameter values were found to decrease due to the increased stiffness of the elastic support. The damage criterion of the structure model caused by the wave impact was initially discussed, and the structure model was destroyed when the average slamming time was greater than a certain value during the duration of the wave impact. The conclusions of the experimental study were then described.
基金This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Plan of China(2018YFB0505103)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61873064)the Science and Technology Project of State Grid Corporation of China(SGSHJX00KXJS1901531).
文摘In the equatorial region,deep amplitude fading in global positioning system(GPS)signals frequently occurs during the strong ionospheric scintillation,it can lead to the loss of lock in GPS carrier tracking loops,and result in increased positioning error and even navigation interruption.The relationships between amplitude scintillation indices and detrended carrier frequency are investigated,based on GPS L1 C/A signals during the last peak of the solar cycle at the low latitude site of São Josédos Campos,Brazil(23.2S,45.9W)from 2013 to 2015.Corresponding mathematic model of the probability distribution function is built for the first time to provide statistical analysis on the above relationships.The results show that the standard carrier frequencies reveal an almost linear relation with the amplitude scintillation indices.Moreover,the frequency widths of detrended frequency are proportional to levels of amplitude scintillation when the value of the peak probability is lower than the corresponding boundary.A conclusion can be drawn that different levels of amplitude scintillation will influence the fluctuation of the carrier frequency.The analysis will provide useful guidance to set the receiver’s bandwidth with respect to the different scintillation levels and design the advanced tracking algorithms to improve the robustness and precision of the GPS receiver.
基金This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （NSFC） under Grants Nos. 40575031 and 40533016by the Ministry of Education of China under Grant No. 106002.
文摘The probability distribution function （PDF） of a passive tracer, forced by a ＂mean gradient＂, is studied. First, we take two theoretical approaches, the Lagrangian and the conditional closure formalisms, to study the PDFs of such an externally forced passive tracer. Then, we carry out numerical simulations for an idealized random flow on a sphere and for European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts （ECMWF） stratospheric winds to test whether the mean-gradient model can be applied to studying stratospheric tracer mixing in midlatitude surf zones, in which a weak and poleward zonal-mean gradient is maintained by tracer leakage through polar and tropical mixing barriers, and whether the PDFs of tracer fluctuations in midlatitudes are consistent with the theoretical predictions. The numerical simulations show that when diffusive dissipation is balanced by the mean-gradient forcing, the PDF in the random flow and the Southern-Hemisphere PDFs in ECMWF winds show time-invariant exponential tails, consistent with theoretical predictions. In the Northern Hemisphere, the PDFs exhibit non-Gaussian tails. However, the PDF tails are not consistent with theoretical expectations. The long-term behavior of the PDF tails of the forced tracer is compared to that of a decaying tracer. It is found that the PDF tails of the decaying tracer are time-dependent, and evolve toward flatter than exponential.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.10574060the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province of China under Grant No.Y2004A09
文摘In this paper, in terms of the technique of integration within an ordered product （IWOP） of operators and the properties of the inverses of q-deformed annihilation and creation operators, normalizable q-analogue of the squeezed one-photon state, which is quite different from one introduced by Song and Fan [Int. 3. Theor. Phys. 41 （2002） 695], is constructed. Moreover, the Wigner function and phase probability distribution of q-analogue of the squeezed one-photon state are examined.
基金Project (No. 20204014) supported by the National Natural ScienceFoundation of China
文摘The configurational properties of tail-like polymer chains with one end attached to a flat surface are studied by using dynamic Monte Carlo technique. We find that the probability distribution of the free end in z direction P（Rz） and the density profile p（z） can be scaled approximately by a factor β to be a length independent function for both random walking （RW） and self-avoiding walking （SAW） tail-like chains, where the factor β is related to the mean square end-to-end distance 〈RE〉. The scaled P（Rz） of the SAW chain roughly overlaps that of the RW chain, but the scaled p（z） of the SAW chain locates at smaller βz than that of the RW chain.
基金Supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China(863 Program)(No.2013AA09A505)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.U1133001,41376027,41406017)the NSFC-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers(No.U1406401)
文摘The probability distribution of wave heights under the assumption of narrowband linear wave theory follows the Rayleigh distribution and the statistical relationships between some characteristic wave heights, derived from this distribution, are widely used for the treatment of realistic wind waves. However, the bandwidth of wave frequency influences the probability distribution of wave heights. In this paper, a wave-spectrum-width parameter B was introduced into the JONSWAP spectrum. This facilitated the construction of a wind-wave spectrum and the reconstruction of wind-wave time series for various growth stages, based on which the probability density distributions of the wind-wave heights were studied statistically. The distribution curves deviated slightly from the theoretical Rayleigh distribution with increasing B. The probability that a wave height exceeded a certain value was clearly smaller than the theoretical value for B≥0.3, and the difference between them increased with the threshold value. The relation between the Hs/σ ratio and B was investigated statistically, which revealed that the Hs/σ ratio deviated from 4.005 and declined with B. When B reached 0.698 1, the Hs/σ ratio was 3.825, which is about 95.5% of its original value. This indicates an overestimation in the a potential method for improving the accuracy of the Hs extremely large waves under severe sea states. prediction of Hs from Hs=4.005σ, and provides remote sensing retrieval algorithm, critical for
基金This project was financially supported by the National Nature Science Foundation of China(Grant No.49876012,49976003)
文摘Laboratory experiments are conducted to study the probability distribution of surface elevation for wind waves and the convergence is discussed of the Gram-Charlier series in describing the surface elevation distribution. Results show that the agreement between the Gram-Charlier series and the observed distribution becomes better and better as the truncated order of the series increases in a certain range, which is contrary to the phenomenon observed by Huang and Long (1980). It is also shown that the Gram-Charlier series is sensitive to the anomalies in the data set which will make the agreement worse if they are not preprocessed appropriately. Negative values of the probability distribution expressed by the Gram-Charlier series in some ranges of surface elevations are discussed, but the absolute values of the negative values as well as the ranges of their occurrence become smaller gradually as more and mote terms are included. Therefore the negative values will have no evident effect on the form of the whole surface elevation distribution when the series is truncated at higher orders. Furthermore, a simple recurrence formula is obtained to calculate the coefficients of the Gram-Charlier series in order to extend the Gram-Charlier series to high orders conveniently.
