Experimental study is performed on the probabilistic models for the long fatigue crack growth rates （da/dN） of LZ50 axle steel. An equation for crack growth rate was derived to consider the trend of stress intensity...Experimental study is performed on the probabilistic models for the long fatigue crack growth rates （da/dN） of LZ50 axle steel. An equation for crack growth rate was derived to consider the trend of stress intensity factor range going down to the threshold and the average stress effect. The probabilistic models were presented on the equation. They consist of the probabilistic da/dN-△K relations, the confidence-based da/dN-△K relations, and the probabilistic- and confidence-based da/dN-△K relations. Efforts were made respectively to characterize the effects of probabilistic assessments due to the scattering regularity of test data, the number of sampling, and both of them. These relations can provide wide selections for practice. Analysis on the test data of LZ50 steel indicates that the present models are available and feasible.展开更多
A simple probabilistic model for predicting crack growth behavior under random loading is presented. In the model, the parameters c and m in the Paris-Erdogan Equation are taken as random variables, and their stochast...A simple probabilistic model for predicting crack growth behavior under random loading is presented. In the model, the parameters c and m in the Paris-Erdogan Equation are taken as random variables, and their stochastic characteristic values are obtained through fatigue crack propagation tests on an offshore structural steel under constant amplitude loading. Furthermore, by using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, the fatigue crack propagation life to reach a given crack length is predicted. The tests are conducted to verify the applicability of the theoretical prediction of the fatigue crack propagation.展开更多
An algorithm to refine and clean gait silhouette noises generated by imperfect motion detection techniques is developed,and a relatively complete and high quality silhouette is obtained.The silhouettes are sequentiall...An algorithm to refine and clean gait silhouette noises generated by imperfect motion detection techniques is developed,and a relatively complete and high quality silhouette is obtained.The silhouettes are sequentially refined in two levels according to two different probabilistic models.The first level is within-sequence refinement.Each silhouette in a particular sequence is refined by an individual model trained by the gait images from current sequence.The second level is between-sequence refinement.All the silhouettes that need further refinement are modified by a population model trained by the gait images chosen from a certain amount of pedestrians.The intention is to preserve the within-class similarity and to decrease the interaction between one class and others.Comparative experimental results indicate that the proposed algorithm is simple and quite effective,and it helps the existing recognition methods achieve a higher recognition performance.展开更多
The growth and survival characteristic of Salmonella Enteritidis under acidic and osmotic conditions were studied.Meanwhile,a probabilistic model based on the theory of cell division and mortality was established to p...The growth and survival characteristic of Salmonella Enteritidis under acidic and osmotic conditions were studied.Meanwhile,a probabilistic model based on the theory of cell division and mortality was established to predict the growth or inactivation of S.Enteritidis.The experimental results demonstrated that the growth curves of planktonic and detached cells showed a significant difference(p<0.05)under four conditions,including pH5.0+0.0%NaCl,pH7.0+4.0%NaCl,pH6.0+4.0%NaCl,and pH5.0+4.0%NaCl.And the established primary and secondary models could describe the growth of S.enteritis well by estimating four mathematics evaluation indexes,including determination coefficient(R2),root mean square error(RMSE),accuracy factor(Af)and bias factor(Bf).Moreover,sequential treatment of 15%NaCl stress followed by pH 4.5 stress was the best condition to inactivate S.Enteritidis in 10 h at 25◦C.The probabilistic model with Logistical or Weibullian form could also predict the inactivation of S.Enteritidis well,thus realize the unification of predictive model to some extent or generalization of inactivation model.Furthermore,the primary 4-parameter probabilistic model or generalized inactivation model had slightly higher applicability and reliability to describe the growth or inactivation of S.Enteritidis than Baranyi model or exponential inactivation model within the experimental range in this study.展开更多
This article shows the probabilistic modeling of hydrocarbon spills on the surface of the sea, using climatology data of oil spill trajectories yielded by applying the lagrangian model PETROMAR-3D. To achieve this goa...This article shows the probabilistic modeling of hydrocarbon spills on the surface of the sea, using climatology data of oil spill trajectories yielded by applying the lagrangian model PETROMAR-3D. To achieve this goal, several computing and statistical tools were used to develop the probabilistic modeling solution based in the methodology of Guo. Solution was implemented using a databases approach and SQL language. A case study is presented which is based on a hypothetical spill in a location inside the Exclusive Economic Zone of Cuba. Important outputs and products of probabilistic modeling were obtained, which are very useful for decision-makers and operators in charge to face oil spill accidents and prepare contingency plans to minimize its effects. In order to study the relationship between the initial trajectory and the arrival of hydrocarbons spills to the coast, a new approach is introduced as an incoming perspective for modeling. It consists in storage in databases the direction of movement of the oil slick at the first 24 hours. The probabilistic modeling solution presented is of great importance for hazard studies of oil spills in Cuban coastal areas.展开更多
Renewable energy production and the balance between production and demand have become increasingly crucial in modern power systems,necessitating accurate forecasting.Traditional deterministic methods fail to capture t...Renewable energy production and the balance between production and demand have become increasingly crucial in modern power systems,necessitating accurate forecasting.Traditional deterministic methods fail to capture the inherent uncertainties associated with intermittent renewable sources and fluctuating demand patterns.This paper proposes a novel denoising diffusion method for multivariate time series probabilistic forecasting that explicitly models the interdependencies between variables through graph modeling.Our framework employs a parallel feature extraction module that simultaneously captures temporal dynamics and spatial correlations,enabling improved forecasting accuracy.Through extensive evaluation on two world real-datasets focused on renewable energy and electricity demand,we demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance in probabilistic energy time series forecasting tasks.By explicitly modeling variable interdependencies and incorporating temporal information,our method provides reliable probabilistic forecasts,crucial for effective decision-making and resource allocation in the energy sector.Extensive experiments validate that our proposed method reduces the Continuous Ranked Probability Score(CRPS)by 2.1%-70.9%,Mean Absolute Error(MAE)by 4.4%-52.2%,and Root Mean Squared Error(RMSE)by 7.9%-53.4%over existing methods on two real-world datasets.展开更多
Airport tower control plays an instrumental role in ensuring airport safety.However,obtaining objective,quantitative safety evaluations is challenging due to the unavailability of pertinent human operation data.This s...Airport tower control plays an instrumental role in ensuring airport safety.However,obtaining objective,quantitative safety evaluations is challenging due to the unavailability of pertinent human operation data.This study introduces a probabilistic model that combines aircraft dynamics and the peak-over-threshold(POT)approach to assess the safety performance of airport controllers.We applied the POT approach to model reaction times extracted from a radiotelephony dataset via a voice event detection algorithm.The model couples the risks of tower control and aircraft operation to analyze the influence of human factors.Using data from radiotele-phony communications and the Base of Aircraft Data(BADA)database,we compared risk levels across scenarios.Our findings revealed heightened airport control risks under low demand(0.374)compared to typical conditions(0.197).Furthermore,the risks associated with coupling under low demand exceeded those under typical de-mand,with the final approach stage presenting the highest risk(4.929×107).Our model underscores the significance of human factors and the implications of mental disconnects between pilots and controllers for safety risks.Collectively,these consistent findings affirm the reliability of our probabilistic model as an evaluative tool for evaluating the safety performance of airport tower controllers.The results also illuminate the path toward quantitative real-time safety evaluations for airport controllers within the industry.We recommend that airport regulators focus on the performance of airport controllers,particularly during the final approach stage.展开更多
The development of modern engineering components and equipment features large size,intricate shape and long service life,which places greater demands on valid methods for fatigue performance analysis.Achieving a smoot...The development of modern engineering components and equipment features large size,intricate shape and long service life,which places greater demands on valid methods for fatigue performance analysis.Achieving a smooth transformation between small-scale laboratory specimens’fatigue properties and full-scale engineering components’fatigue strength has been a long-term challenge.In this work,two dominant factors impeding the smooth transformation—notch and size effect were experimentally studied,in which fatigue tests on Al 7075-T6511(a very high-strength aviation alloy)notched specimens of different scales were carried out.Fractography analyses identified the evidence of the size effect on notch fatigue damage evolution.Accordingly,the Energy Field Intensity(EFI)initially developed for multiaxial notch fatigue analysis was improved by utilizing the volume ratio of the Effective Damage Zones(EDZs)for size effect correction.In particular,it was extended to a probabilistic model considering the inherent variability of the fatigue phenomenon.The experimental data of Al 7075-T6511 notched specimens and the model-predicted results were compared,indicating the high potential of the proposed approach in fatigue evaluation under combined notch and size effects.展开更多
This paper presents a new technique of unified probabilistic models for facerecognition from only one single example image per person. The unified models, trained on anobtained training set with multiple samples per p...This paper presents a new technique of unified probabilistic models for facerecognition from only one single example image per person. The unified models, trained on anobtained training set with multiple samples per person, are used to recognize facial images fromanother disjoint database with a single sample per person. Variations between facial images aremodeled as two unified probabilistic models: within-class variations and between-class variations.Gaussian Mixture Models are used to approximate the distributions of the two variations and exploita classifier combination method to improve the performance. Extensive experimental results on theORL face database and the authors'' database (the ICT-JDL database) including totally 1,750 facialimages of 350 individuals demonstrate that the proposed technique, compared with traditionaleigenface method and some well-known traditional algorithms, is a significantly more effective androbust approach for face recognition.展开更多
We present a stochastic trust-region model-based framework in which its radius is related to the probabilistic models.Especially,we propose a specific algorithm termed STRME,in which the trust-region radius depends li...We present a stochastic trust-region model-based framework in which its radius is related to the probabilistic models.Especially,we propose a specific algorithm termed STRME,in which the trust-region radius depends linearly on the gradient used to define the latest model.The complexity results of the STRME method in nonconvex,convex and strongly convex settings are presented,which match those of the existing algorithms based on probabilistic properties.In addition,several numerical experiments are carried out to reveal the benefits of the proposed methods compared to the existing stochastic trust-region methods and other relevant stochastic gradient methods.展开更多
In this paper, we present the modeling and optimization of a Real-Time Protocol（RTP） used in Train Communication Networks（TCN）. In the proposed RTP, message arbitration is represented by a probabilistic model and ...In this paper, we present the modeling and optimization of a Real-Time Protocol（RTP） used in Train Communication Networks（TCN）. In the proposed RTP, message arbitration is represented by a probabilistic model and the number of arbitration checks is minimized by using the probability of device activity. Our optimized protocol is fully compatible with the original standard and can thus be implemented easily. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm can reduce the number of checks by about 50%, thus significantly enhancing bandwidth.展开更多
The paper proposes a novel probabilistic generative model for simultaneous image classification and annotation. The model considers the fact that the category information can provide valuable information for image ann...The paper proposes a novel probabilistic generative model for simultaneous image classification and annotation. The model considers the fact that the category information can provide valuable information for image annotation. Once the category of an image is ascertained, the scope of annotation words can be narrowed, and the probability of generating irrelevant annotation words can be reduced. To this end, the idea that annotates images according to class is introduced in the model. Using variational methods, the approximate inference and parameters estimation algorithms of the model are derived, and efficient approximations for classifying and annotating new images are also given. The power of our model is demonstrated on two real world datasets： a 1 600-images LabelMe dataset and a 1 791-images UIUC-Sport dataset. The experiment results show that the classification performance is on par with several state-of-the-art classification models, while the annotation performance is better than that of several state-of-the-art annotation models.展开更多
Modeling the generation of a wind farm and its effect on power system reliability is a challenging task,largely due to the random behavior of the output power.In this paper,we propose a new probabilistic model for ass...Modeling the generation of a wind farm and its effect on power system reliability is a challenging task,largely due to the random behavior of the output power.In this paper,we propose a new probabilistic model for assessing the reliability of wind farms in a power system at hierarchical level II(HLII),using a Monte Carlo simulation.The proposed model shows the effect of correlation between wind and load on reliability calculation.It can also be used for identifying the priority of various points of the network for installing new wind farms,to promote the reliability of the whole system.A simple grid at hierarchical level I(HLI) and a network in the north-eastern region of Iran are studied.Simulation results showed that the correlation between wind and load significantly affects the reliability.展开更多
Lane changing assistance in autonomous vehicles is a popular research topic. Scene modeling of the driving area is a prerequisite for lane changing decision problems. A road environment representation method based on ...Lane changing assistance in autonomous vehicles is a popular research topic. Scene modeling of the driving area is a prerequisite for lane changing decision problems. A road environment representation method based on a dynamic occupancy grid is proposed in this study. The model encapsulates the data such as vehicle speed, obstacles, lane lines, and traffic rules into a form of spatial drivability probability. This information is compiled into a hash table, and the grid map is mapped into a hash map by means of hash function. A vehicle behavior decision cost equation is established with the model to help drivers make accurate vehicle lane changing decisions based on the principle of least cost, while considering influencing factors such as vehicle drivability, safety, and power. The feasibility of the lane changing assistance strategy is verified through vehicle tests, and the results show that the lane changing assistance system based on a probabilistic model of dynamic occupancy grids can provide lane changing assistance to drivers taking into consideration the dynamics and safety.展开更多
Based on a field observation on vessel transit path of three bridges over the Yangtze River in the Three Gorges Reservoir,and an analysis of the geometric probabilistic model of transiting vessels in collision probabi...Based on a field observation on vessel transit path of three bridges over the Yangtze River in the Three Gorges Reservoir,and an analysis of the geometric probabilistic model of transiting vessels in collision probability calculation,the aberrancy angle and vessel velocity probabilistic model related with impact force,a probabilistic model is established and also verified by goodness-of-fit test.The vessel transit path distribution can be expressed by the normal distribution model.For the Three Gorges Reservoir,the mean and standard deviation adopt 0.2w and 0.1w,respectively(w is the channel width).The aberrancy angle distribution of vessels accepts maximum I distribution model,and its distribution parameters can be taken as 0.314 and 4.354.The velocity distribution of up-bound and down-bound vessels can also be expressed by the normal distribution model.展开更多
This study statistically evaluated the characteristics of induced earthquakes by geothermal power plants(GPPs)and generated a probabilistic model for simulating stochastic seismic events.Four well-known power plant zo...This study statistically evaluated the characteristics of induced earthquakes by geothermal power plants(GPPs)and generated a probabilistic model for simulating stochastic seismic events.Four well-known power plant zones were selected worldwide from the United States,Germany,France,and New Zealand.The operational condition information,as well as the corresponding earthquake catalogs recorded in the vicinity of GPPs,were gathered from their commencement date.The statistical properties of events were studied elaborately.By using this proposed database,a probabilistic model was developed capable of generating the number of induced seismic events per month,their magnitude,focal depth,and distance from the epicenter to the power plant,randomly.All of these parameters are simulated as a function of power plant injection rate.Generally speaking,the model,introduced in this study,is a tool for engineers and scientists interested in the seismic risk assessment of built environments prone to induced seismicity produced by GPPs operation.展开更多
A new probabilistic testability measure is presented to ease test length analyses of random testing and pseudorandom testing.The testability measure given in this paper is oriented to signal conflict of reconvergent f...A new probabilistic testability measure is presented to ease test length analyses of random testing and pseudorandom testing.The testability measure given in this paper is oriented to signal conflict of reconvergent fanouts.Test length analyses in this paper are based on a hard fault set,calculations of which are practicable and simple.Experimental results have been obtained to show the accuracy of this test length analyser in comparison with that of Savir,Chin and McCluskey,and Wunderlich by using a pseudorandom test generator combined with exhaustive fault simulation.展开更多
It is attractive to formulate problems in computer vision and related fields in term of probabilis- tic estimation where the probability models are defined over graphs, such as grammars. The graphical struc- tures, an...It is attractive to formulate problems in computer vision and related fields in term of probabilis- tic estimation where the probability models are defined over graphs, such as grammars. The graphical struc- tures, and the state variables defined over them, give a rich knowledge representation which can describe the complex structures of objects and images. The proba- bility distributions defined over the graphs capture the statistical variability of these structures. These proba- bility models can be learnt from training data with lim- ited amounts of supervision. But learning these models suffers from the difficulty of evaluating the normaliza- tion constant, or partition function, of the probability distributions which can be extremely computationally demanding. This paper shows that by placing bounds on the normalization constant we can obtain compu- rationally tractable approximations. Surprisingly, for certain choices of loss functions, we obtain many of the standard max-margin criteria used in support vector machines （SVMs） and hence we reduce the learning to standard machine learning methods. We show that many machine learning methods can be obtained in this way as approximations to probabilistic methods including multi-class max-margin, ordinal regression, max-margin Markov networks and parsers, multiple- instance learning, and latent SVM. We illustrate this work by computer vision applications including image labeling, object detection and localization, and motion estimation. We speculate that rained by using better bounds better results can be ob- and approximations.展开更多
Integration of acquired immunity into microbial risk assessment for illness incidence is of no doubt essential for the study of susceptibility to illness.In this study,a probabilistic model was set up as dose response...Integration of acquired immunity into microbial risk assessment for illness incidence is of no doubt essential for the study of susceptibility to illness.In this study,a probabilistic model was set up as dose response for infection and a mathematical derivation was carried out by integrating immunity to obtain probability of illness models.Temporary acquire immunity from epidemiology studies which includes six different Norovirus transmission scenarios such as symptomatic individuals infectious,pre-and post-symptomatic infectiousness(low and high),innate genetic resistance,genogroup 2 type 4 and those with no immune boosting by asymptomatic infection were evaluated.Simulated results on illness inflation factor as a function of dose and exposure indicated that high frequency exposures had immense immunity build up even at high dose levels;hence minimized the probability of illness.Using Norovirus transmission dynamics data,results showed,and immunity included models had a reduction of 2e6 logs of magnitude difference in disease burden for both population and individual probable illness incidence.Additionally,the magnitude order of illness for each dose response remained largely the same for all transmission scenarios;symptomatic infectiousness and no immune boosting after asymptomatic infectiousness also remained the same throughout.With integration of epidemiological data on acquired immunity into the risk assessment,more realistic results were achieved signifying an overestimation of probable risk of illness when epidemiological immunity data are not included.This finding supported the call for rigorous integration of temporary acquired immunity in dose-response in all microbial risk assessments.展开更多
The static and predictable characteristics of cyber systems give attackers an asymmetric advantage in gathering useful information and launching attacks.To reverse this asymmetric advantage,a new defense idea,called M...The static and predictable characteristics of cyber systems give attackers an asymmetric advantage in gathering useful information and launching attacks.To reverse this asymmetric advantage,a new defense idea,called Moving Target Defense(MTD),has been proposed to provide additional selectable measures to complement traditional defense.However,MTD is unable to defeat the sophisticated attacker with fingerprint tracking ability.To overcome this limitation,we go one step beyond and show that the combination of MTD and Deception-based Cyber Defense(DCD)can achieve higher performance than either of them.In particular,we first introduce and formalize a novel attacker model named Scan and Foothold Attack(SFA)based on cyber kill chain.Afterwards,we develop probabilistic models for SFA defenses to provide a deeper analysis of the theoretical effect under different defense strategies.These models quantify attack success probability and the probability that the attacker will be deceived under various conditions,such as the size of address space,and the number of hosts,attack analysis time.Finally,the experimental results show that the actual defense effect of each strategy almost perfectly follows its probabilistic model.Also,the defense strategy of combining address mutation and fingerprint camouflage can achieve a better defense effect than the single address mutation.展开更多
基金国家自然科学基金，Special Foundation of National Excellent Ph.D.Thesis，Outstanding Young Teachers of Ministry of Education of China
文摘Experimental study is performed on the probabilistic models for the long fatigue crack growth rates （da/dN） of LZ50 axle steel. An equation for crack growth rate was derived to consider the trend of stress intensity factor range going down to the threshold and the average stress effect. The probabilistic models were presented on the equation. They consist of the probabilistic da/dN-△K relations, the confidence-based da/dN-△K relations, and the probabilistic- and confidence-based da/dN-△K relations. Efforts were made respectively to characterize the effects of probabilistic assessments due to the scattering regularity of test data, the number of sampling, and both of them. These relations can provide wide selections for practice. Analysis on the test data of LZ50 steel indicates that the present models are available and feasible.
文摘A simple probabilistic model for predicting crack growth behavior under random loading is presented. In the model, the parameters c and m in the Paris-Erdogan Equation are taken as random variables, and their stochastic characteristic values are obtained through fatigue crack propagation tests on an offshore structural steel under constant amplitude loading. Furthermore, by using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, the fatigue crack propagation life to reach a given crack length is predicted. The tests are conducted to verify the applicability of the theoretical prediction of the fatigue crack propagation.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 60675024)
文摘An algorithm to refine and clean gait silhouette noises generated by imperfect motion detection techniques is developed,and a relatively complete and high quality silhouette is obtained.The silhouettes are sequentially refined in two levels according to two different probabilistic models.The first level is within-sequence refinement.Each silhouette in a particular sequence is refined by an individual model trained by the gait images from current sequence.The second level is between-sequence refinement.All the silhouettes that need further refinement are modified by a population model trained by the gait images chosen from a certain amount of pedestrians.The intention is to preserve the within-class similarity and to decrease the interaction between one class and others.Comparative experimental results indicate that the proposed algorithm is simple and quite effective,and it helps the existing recognition methods achieve a higher recognition performance.
基金This work has been financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC 31271896 and 31371776)the project in the National Science&Technology Pillar Program during the Twelfth Five-year Plan Period(2015BAK36B04)and the project of Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality(15395810900).
文摘The growth and survival characteristic of Salmonella Enteritidis under acidic and osmotic conditions were studied.Meanwhile,a probabilistic model based on the theory of cell division and mortality was established to predict the growth or inactivation of S.Enteritidis.The experimental results demonstrated that the growth curves of planktonic and detached cells showed a significant difference(p<0.05)under four conditions,including pH5.0+0.0%NaCl,pH7.0+4.0%NaCl,pH6.0+4.0%NaCl,and pH5.0+4.0%NaCl.And the established primary and secondary models could describe the growth of S.enteritis well by estimating four mathematics evaluation indexes,including determination coefficient(R2),root mean square error(RMSE),accuracy factor(Af)and bias factor(Bf).Moreover,sequential treatment of 15%NaCl stress followed by pH 4.5 stress was the best condition to inactivate S.Enteritidis in 10 h at 25◦C.The probabilistic model with Logistical or Weibullian form could also predict the inactivation of S.Enteritidis well,thus realize the unification of predictive model to some extent or generalization of inactivation model.Furthermore,the primary 4-parameter probabilistic model or generalized inactivation model had slightly higher applicability and reliability to describe the growth or inactivation of S.Enteritidis than Baranyi model or exponential inactivation model within the experimental range in this study.
文摘This article shows the probabilistic modeling of hydrocarbon spills on the surface of the sea, using climatology data of oil spill trajectories yielded by applying the lagrangian model PETROMAR-3D. To achieve this goal, several computing and statistical tools were used to develop the probabilistic modeling solution based in the methodology of Guo. Solution was implemented using a databases approach and SQL language. A case study is presented which is based on a hypothetical spill in a location inside the Exclusive Economic Zone of Cuba. Important outputs and products of probabilistic modeling were obtained, which are very useful for decision-makers and operators in charge to face oil spill accidents and prepare contingency plans to minimize its effects. In order to study the relationship between the initial trajectory and the arrival of hydrocarbons spills to the coast, a new approach is introduced as an incoming perspective for modeling. It consists in storage in databases the direction of movement of the oil slick at the first 24 hours. The probabilistic modeling solution presented is of great importance for hazard studies of oil spills in Cuban coastal areas.
文摘Renewable energy production and the balance between production and demand have become increasingly crucial in modern power systems,necessitating accurate forecasting.Traditional deterministic methods fail to capture the inherent uncertainties associated with intermittent renewable sources and fluctuating demand patterns.This paper proposes a novel denoising diffusion method for multivariate time series probabilistic forecasting that explicitly models the interdependencies between variables through graph modeling.Our framework employs a parallel feature extraction module that simultaneously captures temporal dynamics and spatial correlations,enabling improved forecasting accuracy.Through extensive evaluation on two world real-datasets focused on renewable energy and electricity demand,we demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance in probabilistic energy time series forecasting tasks.By explicitly modeling variable interdependencies and incorporating temporal information,our method provides reliable probabilistic forecasts,crucial for effective decision-making and resource allocation in the energy sector.Extensive experiments validate that our proposed method reduces the Continuous Ranked Probability Score(CRPS)by 2.1%-70.9%,Mean Absolute Error(MAE)by 4.4%-52.2%,and Root Mean Squared Error(RMSE)by 7.9%-53.4%over existing methods on two real-world datasets.
基金funded by the Jiangsu Province Natural Science Foundation(Grant number:BK20201296)the National Natural Science Foundation of China-Civil Aviation Administration of China Civil Aviation Joint Research Foundation(Grant number:U2233208).
文摘Airport tower control plays an instrumental role in ensuring airport safety.However,obtaining objective,quantitative safety evaluations is challenging due to the unavailability of pertinent human operation data.This study introduces a probabilistic model that combines aircraft dynamics and the peak-over-threshold(POT)approach to assess the safety performance of airport controllers.We applied the POT approach to model reaction times extracted from a radiotelephony dataset via a voice event detection algorithm.The model couples the risks of tower control and aircraft operation to analyze the influence of human factors.Using data from radiotele-phony communications and the Base of Aircraft Data(BADA)database,we compared risk levels across scenarios.Our findings revealed heightened airport control risks under low demand(0.374)compared to typical conditions(0.197).Furthermore,the risks associated with coupling under low demand exceeded those under typical de-mand,with the final approach stage presenting the highest risk(4.929×107).Our model underscores the significance of human factors and the implications of mental disconnects between pilots and controllers for safety risks.Collectively,these consistent findings affirm the reliability of our probabilistic model as an evaluative tool for evaluating the safety performance of airport tower controllers.The results also illuminate the path toward quantitative real-time safety evaluations for airport controllers within the industry.We recommend that airport regulators focus on the performance of airport controllers,particularly during the final approach stage.
基金support from the Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.12232004)the Training Program of the Sichuan Province Science and the Technology Innovation Seedling Project(No.MZGC20230012)are acknowledged.
文摘The development of modern engineering components and equipment features large size,intricate shape and long service life,which places greater demands on valid methods for fatigue performance analysis.Achieving a smooth transformation between small-scale laboratory specimens’fatigue properties and full-scale engineering components’fatigue strength has been a long-term challenge.In this work,two dominant factors impeding the smooth transformation—notch and size effect were experimentally studied,in which fatigue tests on Al 7075-T6511(a very high-strength aviation alloy)notched specimens of different scales were carried out.Fractography analyses identified the evidence of the size effect on notch fatigue damage evolution.Accordingly,the Energy Field Intensity(EFI)initially developed for multiaxial notch fatigue analysis was improved by utilizing the volume ratio of the Effective Damage Zones(EDZs)for size effect correction.In particular,it was extended to a probabilistic model considering the inherent variability of the fatigue phenomenon.The experimental data of Al 7075-T6511 notched specimens and the model-predicted results were compared,indicating the high potential of the proposed approach in fatigue evaluation under combined notch and size effects.
文摘This paper presents a new technique of unified probabilistic models for facerecognition from only one single example image per person. The unified models, trained on anobtained training set with multiple samples per person, are used to recognize facial images fromanother disjoint database with a single sample per person. Variations between facial images aremodeled as two unified probabilistic models: within-class variations and between-class variations.Gaussian Mixture Models are used to approximate the distributions of the two variations and exploita classifier combination method to improve the performance. Extensive experimental results on theORL face database and the authors'' database (the ICT-JDL database) including totally 1,750 facialimages of 350 individuals demonstrate that the proposed technique, compared with traditionaleigenface method and some well-known traditional algorithms, is a significantly more effective androbust approach for face recognition.
基金This research is partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China 11331012 and 11688101.
文摘We present a stochastic trust-region model-based framework in which its radius is related to the probabilistic models.Especially,we propose a specific algorithm termed STRME,in which the trust-region radius depends linearly on the gradient used to define the latest model.The complexity results of the STRME method in nonconvex,convex and strongly convex settings are presented,which match those of the existing algorithms based on probabilistic properties.In addition,several numerical experiments are carried out to reveal the benefits of the proposed methods compared to the existing stochastic trust-region methods and other relevant stochastic gradient methods.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. U1201251 and 61402248)the National Key Technologies Research and Development Program of China (No. 2015BAG14B01-02)MIIT IT funds (Research and application of TCN key technologies) of China
文摘In this paper, we present the modeling and optimization of a Real-Time Protocol（RTP） used in Train Communication Networks（TCN）. In the proposed RTP, message arbitration is represented by a probabilistic model and the number of arbitration checks is minimized by using the probability of device activity. Our optimized protocol is fully compatible with the original standard and can thus be implemented easily. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm can reduce the number of checks by about 50%, thus significantly enhancing bandwidth.
基金supported by the Major Research Plan of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (90920006)
文摘The paper proposes a novel probabilistic generative model for simultaneous image classification and annotation. The model considers the fact that the category information can provide valuable information for image annotation. Once the category of an image is ascertained, the scope of annotation words can be narrowed, and the probability of generating irrelevant annotation words can be reduced. To this end, the idea that annotates images according to class is introduced in the model. Using variational methods, the approximate inference and parameters estimation algorithms of the model are derived, and efficient approximations for classifying and annotating new images are also given. The power of our model is demonstrated on two real world datasets： a 1 600-images LabelMe dataset and a 1 791-images UIUC-Sport dataset. The experiment results show that the classification performance is on par with several state-of-the-art classification models, while the annotation performance is better than that of several state-of-the-art annotation models.
文摘Modeling the generation of a wind farm and its effect on power system reliability is a challenging task,largely due to the random behavior of the output power.In this paper,we propose a new probabilistic model for assessing the reliability of wind farms in a power system at hierarchical level II(HLII),using a Monte Carlo simulation.The proposed model shows the effect of correlation between wind and load on reliability calculation.It can also be used for identifying the priority of various points of the network for installing new wind farms,to promote the reliability of the whole system.A simple grid at hierarchical level I(HLI) and a network in the north-eastern region of Iran are studied.Simulation results showed that the correlation between wind and load significantly affects the reliability.
基金Project supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2017YFB0102601)the Hubei Provincial Key Research and Development Project,China (No. 2020BAB099)。
文摘Lane changing assistance in autonomous vehicles is a popular research topic. Scene modeling of the driving area is a prerequisite for lane changing decision problems. A road environment representation method based on a dynamic occupancy grid is proposed in this study. The model encapsulates the data such as vehicle speed, obstacles, lane lines, and traffic rules into a form of spatial drivability probability. This information is compiled into a hash table, and the grid map is mapped into a hash map by means of hash function. A vehicle behavior decision cost equation is established with the model to help drivers make accurate vehicle lane changing decisions based on the principle of least cost, while considering influencing factors such as vehicle drivability, safety, and power. The feasibility of the lane changing assistance strategy is verified through vehicle tests, and the results show that the lane changing assistance system based on a probabilistic model of dynamic occupancy grids can provide lane changing assistance to drivers taking into consideration the dynamics and safety.
文摘Based on a field observation on vessel transit path of three bridges over the Yangtze River in the Three Gorges Reservoir,and an analysis of the geometric probabilistic model of transiting vessels in collision probability calculation,the aberrancy angle and vessel velocity probabilistic model related with impact force,a probabilistic model is established and also verified by goodness-of-fit test.The vessel transit path distribution can be expressed by the normal distribution model.For the Three Gorges Reservoir,the mean and standard deviation adopt 0.2w and 0.1w,respectively(w is the channel width).The aberrancy angle distribution of vessels accepts maximum I distribution model,and its distribution parameters can be taken as 0.314 and 4.354.The velocity distribution of up-bound and down-bound vessels can also be expressed by the normal distribution model.
基金TUM Talent Factory division of the Technical University of München for its support by providing a TUM University Foundation Fellowship for Dr.Ali Khansefid
文摘This study statistically evaluated the characteristics of induced earthquakes by geothermal power plants(GPPs)and generated a probabilistic model for simulating stochastic seismic events.Four well-known power plant zones were selected worldwide from the United States,Germany,France,and New Zealand.The operational condition information,as well as the corresponding earthquake catalogs recorded in the vicinity of GPPs,were gathered from their commencement date.The statistical properties of events were studied elaborately.By using this proposed database,a probabilistic model was developed capable of generating the number of induced seismic events per month,their magnitude,focal depth,and distance from the epicenter to the power plant,randomly.All of these parameters are simulated as a function of power plant injection rate.Generally speaking,the model,introduced in this study,is a tool for engineers and scientists interested in the seismic risk assessment of built environments prone to induced seismicity produced by GPPs operation.
文摘A new probabilistic testability measure is presented to ease test length analyses of random testing and pseudorandom testing.The testability measure given in this paper is oriented to signal conflict of reconvergent fanouts.Test length analyses in this paper are based on a hard fault set,calculations of which are practicable and simple.Experimental results have been obtained to show the accuracy of this test length analyser in comparison with that of Savir,Chin and McCluskey,and Wunderlich by using a pseudorandom test generator combined with exhaustive fault simulation.
文摘It is attractive to formulate problems in computer vision and related fields in term of probabilis- tic estimation where the probability models are defined over graphs, such as grammars. The graphical struc- tures, and the state variables defined over them, give a rich knowledge representation which can describe the complex structures of objects and images. The proba- bility distributions defined over the graphs capture the statistical variability of these structures. These proba- bility models can be learnt from training data with lim- ited amounts of supervision. But learning these models suffers from the difficulty of evaluating the normaliza- tion constant, or partition function, of the probability distributions which can be extremely computationally demanding. This paper shows that by placing bounds on the normalization constant we can obtain compu- rationally tractable approximations. Surprisingly, for certain choices of loss functions, we obtain many of the standard max-margin criteria used in support vector machines （SVMs） and hence we reduce the learning to standard machine learning methods. We show that many machine learning methods can be obtained in this way as approximations to probabilistic methods including multi-class max-margin, ordinal regression, max-margin Markov networks and parsers, multiple- instance learning, and latent SVM. We illustrate this work by computer vision applications including image labeling, object detection and localization, and motion estimation. We speculate that rained by using better bounds better results can be ob- and approximations.
基金This work was supported by DANIDA SaWaFo project with grant number 11-058DHI.
文摘Integration of acquired immunity into microbial risk assessment for illness incidence is of no doubt essential for the study of susceptibility to illness.In this study,a probabilistic model was set up as dose response for infection and a mathematical derivation was carried out by integrating immunity to obtain probability of illness models.Temporary acquire immunity from epidemiology studies which includes six different Norovirus transmission scenarios such as symptomatic individuals infectious,pre-and post-symptomatic infectiousness(low and high),innate genetic resistance,genogroup 2 type 4 and those with no immune boosting by asymptomatic infection were evaluated.Simulated results on illness inflation factor as a function of dose and exposure indicated that high frequency exposures had immense immunity build up even at high dose levels;hence minimized the probability of illness.Using Norovirus transmission dynamics data,results showed,and immunity included models had a reduction of 2e6 logs of magnitude difference in disease burden for both population and individual probable illness incidence.Additionally,the magnitude order of illness for each dose response remained largely the same for all transmission scenarios;symptomatic infectiousness and no immune boosting after asymptomatic infectiousness also remained the same throughout.With integration of epidemiological data on acquired immunity into the risk assessment,more realistic results were achieved signifying an overestimation of probable risk of illness when epidemiological immunity data are not included.This finding supported the call for rigorous integration of temporary acquired immunity in dose-response in all microbial risk assessments.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2016YFB0800601)the Key Program of NSFC-Tongyong Union Foundation(No.U1636209)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61602358)the Key Research and Development Programs of Shaanxi(No.2019ZDLGY13-04,No.2019ZDLGY13-07)。
文摘The static and predictable characteristics of cyber systems give attackers an asymmetric advantage in gathering useful information and launching attacks.To reverse this asymmetric advantage,a new defense idea,called Moving Target Defense(MTD),has been proposed to provide additional selectable measures to complement traditional defense.However,MTD is unable to defeat the sophisticated attacker with fingerprint tracking ability.To overcome this limitation,we go one step beyond and show that the combination of MTD and Deception-based Cyber Defense(DCD)can achieve higher performance than either of them.In particular,we first introduce and formalize a novel attacker model named Scan and Foothold Attack(SFA)based on cyber kill chain.Afterwards,we develop probabilistic models for SFA defenses to provide a deeper analysis of the theoretical effect under different defense strategies.These models quantify attack success probability and the probability that the attacker will be deceived under various conditions,such as the size of address space,and the number of hosts,attack analysis time.Finally,the experimental results show that the actual defense effect of each strategy almost perfectly follows its probabilistic model.Also,the defense strategy of combining address mutation and fingerprint camouflage can achieve a better defense effect than the single address mutation.
