In this commentary,we first briefly review the significant utilities of household and living arrangement projections and the main types of methods for conduct-ing household projections.In the second and third sections...In this commentary,we first briefly review the significant utilities of household and living arrangement projections and the main types of methods for conduct-ing household projections.In the second and third sections,we summarize basic ideas,data needed,assessments and applications of ProFamy extended cohort-com-ponent methods/software for households and living arrangement projections;and we emphasize the importance to extend the ProFamy methods and software from deterministic to probabilistic households and living arrangement projections.In sec-tion 4,we demonstrate that the ProFamy approach provides an adequate and highly feasible modelling framework to extend probabilistic households and living arrange-ment projections(PHPs),in which the population size/structure projection out-comes are in consistence with those of probabilistic population projections(PPPs)released by United Nations Population Division(UNPD).In the last Section,we dis-cuss and recommend applying the user-friendly R package DemoRates of ProFamy software to estimate rural/urban(or race)-sex-age-specific standard schedules and the demographic summary measures,to conduct analyses and projections,such as single-parent households,caregivers,and care needs/costs for disabled older adults,age-friendly housing and households-based energy demands,etc.for healthy aging and sustainable development studies.Finally,we discuss the prospects of our ongo-ing international collaborative research project to substantially extend ProFamy cohort-component method from deterministic into probabilistic households and living arrangement projection(PHPs).As compared with ProFamy deterministic pro-jection method,the PHPs produces a lot of additional outcomes of probabilistically projected households and living arrangements in 2021-2100 with uncertainty inter-vals that are crucial for healthy aging and sustainable development studies.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(2018RFC2000400)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(72061137004)+1 种基金the grant awarded by the Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China under grant section 2 of the Collaborative Program between China and Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN).The work of Qiushi Feng was supported by the Academic Research Fund(ACRF-TIER 2)awarded by Ministry of Education of Singaporesupported by the U.S.National Institute of Aging/National Institute of Health(P01AG031719).
文摘In this commentary,we first briefly review the significant utilities of household and living arrangement projections and the main types of methods for conduct-ing household projections.In the second and third sections,we summarize basic ideas,data needed,assessments and applications of ProFamy extended cohort-com-ponent methods/software for households and living arrangement projections;and we emphasize the importance to extend the ProFamy methods and software from deterministic to probabilistic households and living arrangement projections.In sec-tion 4,we demonstrate that the ProFamy approach provides an adequate and highly feasible modelling framework to extend probabilistic households and living arrange-ment projections(PHPs),in which the population size/structure projection out-comes are in consistence with those of probabilistic population projections(PPPs)released by United Nations Population Division(UNPD).In the last Section,we dis-cuss and recommend applying the user-friendly R package DemoRates of ProFamy software to estimate rural/urban(or race)-sex-age-specific standard schedules and the demographic summary measures,to conduct analyses and projections,such as single-parent households,caregivers,and care needs/costs for disabled older adults,age-friendly housing and households-based energy demands,etc.for healthy aging and sustainable development studies.Finally,we discuss the prospects of our ongo-ing international collaborative research project to substantially extend ProFamy cohort-component method from deterministic into probabilistic households and living arrangement projection(PHPs).As compared with ProFamy deterministic pro-jection method,the PHPs produces a lot of additional outcomes of probabilistically projected households and living arrangements in 2021-2100 with uncertainty inter-vals that are crucial for healthy aging and sustainable development studies.
