The fatigue of heavy-haul railway bridges is considered a key concern due to high stress levels and cyclic loading.The evaluation of fatigue reliability is required to include factor correlations.A major challenge is ...The fatigue of heavy-haul railway bridges is considered a key concern due to high stress levels and cyclic loading.The evaluation of fatigue reliability is required to include factor correlations.A major challenge is presented by the construction of the cumulative distribution function(CDF)and the description of correlations between random variables.In this study,the copula function is used to analyze the fatigue failure probability of the Shuohuang heavy-haul railway bridge.A C-vine copula(CVC)-based joint probability density function(JPDF)is derived with eight correlated parameters.To enhance efficiency in small failure probability calculations,the subset simulation and most probable point(MPP)Monte Carlo importance sampling are introduced based on the Rosenblatt transform and C-vine model.Comparisons with traditional Monte Carlo methods confirm that high accuracy and efficiency are achieved.The results show that when parameter correlations are ignored,failure probability is underestimated,increasing safety risks in bridge assessments.展开更多
The correlation coefficients of random variables of mechanical structures are generally chosen with experience or even ignored,which cannot actually reflect the effects of parameter uncertainties on reliability.To dis...The correlation coefficients of random variables of mechanical structures are generally chosen with experience or even ignored,which cannot actually reflect the effects of parameter uncertainties on reliability.To discuss the selection problem of the correlation coefficients from the reliability-based sensitivity point of view,the theory principle of the problem is established based on the results of the reliability sensitivity,and the criterion of correlation among random variables is shown.The values of the correlation coefficients are obtained according to the proposed principle and the reliability sensitivity problem is discussed.Numerical studies have shown the following results：（1） If the sensitivity value of correlation coefficient ρ is less than（at what magnitude 0.000 01）,then the correlation could be ignored,which could simplify the procedure without introducing additional error.（2） However,as the difference between ρs,that is the most sensitive to the reliability,and ρR,that is with the smallest reliability,is less than 0.001,ρs is suggested to model the dependency of random variables.This could ensure the robust quality of system without the loss of safety requirement.（3） In the case of ｜Eabs｜ρ0.001 and also ｜Erel｜ρ0.001,ρR should be employed to quantify the correlation among random variables in order to ensure the accuracy of reliability analysis.Application of the proposed approach could provide a practical routine for mechanical design and manufactory to study the reliability and reliability-based sensitivity of basic design variables in mechanical reliability analysis and design.展开更多
Adding buckling restrained braces(BRB)of reinforced concrete frame structure can effectively improve the safety performance of the structure.The dynamic reliability analysis based on Poisson continuous process assumpt...Adding buckling restrained braces(BRB)of reinforced concrete frame structure can effectively improve the safety performance of the structure.The dynamic reliability analysis based on Poisson continuous process assumption and the first exceeding failure probability can be used to obtain the failure probability of the buckling restrained brace frame system under earthquake load,and the relationship between the failure probabilities of each floor of the structure is analyzed to obtain the frame system reliability interval of frame structure.The results show that the reliability of BRB frame structure is higher than that of pure frame structure,and the discrete failure probability is lower.展开更多
The current research of reliability allocation of CNC lathes always treat CNC lathes as independent series systems. However, CNC lathes are complex systems in the actual situation. Failure correlation is rarely consid...The current research of reliability allocation of CNC lathes always treat CNC lathes as independent series systems. However, CNC lathes are complex systems in the actual situation. Failure correlation is rarely considered when reliabil?ity allocation is conducted. In this paper, drawbacks of reliability model based on failure independence assumption are illustrated, after which, reliability model of CNC lathes considering failure correlation of subsystems is established based on Copula theory, which is an improvement of traditional reliability model of series systems. As the failure time of CNC lathes often obeys Weibull or exponential distribution, Gumbel Copula is selected to build correlation model. After that, a reliability allocation method considering failure correlation is analyzed based on the model established before. Reliability goal is set first and then failure rates are allocated to subsystems according to the allocation vector through solving the correlation model. Reliability allocation is conducted for t = 1. A real case of a CNC lathe and a numerical case are presented together to illustrate the advantages of the reliability model established consider?ing failure correlation and the corresponding allocation method. It shows that the model accords to facts and real working condition more, and failure rates allocated to all the subsystems are increased to some extent. This research proposes a reliability allocation method which takes failure correlation among subsystems of CNC lathes into consid?eration, and costs for design and manufacture could be decreased.展开更多
The stiffened cylindrical shell is commonly used for the pressure hull of submersibles and the legs of offshore platforms. There are various failure modes because of uncertainty with the structural size and material p...The stiffened cylindrical shell is commonly used for the pressure hull of submersibles and the legs of offshore platforms. There are various failure modes because of uncertainty with the structural size and material properties, uncertainty of the calculation model and machining errors. Correlations among failure modes must be considered with the structural reliability of stiffened cylindrical shells. However, the traditional method cannot consider the correlations effectively. The aim of this study is to present a method of reliability analysis for stiffened cylindrical shells which considers the correlations among failure modes. Firstly, the joint failure probability calculation formula of two related failure modes is derived through use of the 2D joint probability density function. Secondly, the full probability formula of the tandem structural system is given with consideration to the correlations among failure modes. At last, the accuracy of the system reliability calculation is verified through use of the Monte Carlo simulation. Result of the analysis shows the failure probability of stiffened cylindrical shells can be gained through adding the failure probability of each mode.展开更多
Cohesion(c) and friction angle(φ) of rock are important parameters required for reliability analysis of rock slope stability. There is correlation between c and φ which affects results of reliability analysis of roc...Cohesion(c) and friction angle(φ) of rock are important parameters required for reliability analysis of rock slope stability. There is correlation between c and φ which affects results of reliability analysis of rock slope stability. However, the characterization of joint probability distribution of c and φ through which their correlation can be estimated requires a large amount of rock property data, which are often not available for most rock engineering projects. As a result, the correlation between c and φ is often ignored or simply assumed during reliability studies, which may lead to bias estimation of failure probability. In probabilistic rock slope stability analysis, the influence of ignoring or simply assuming the correlation of the rock strength parameters(i.e., c and φ) on the reliability of rock slopes has not been fully investigated. In this study, a Bayesian approach is developed to characterize the correlation between c and φ, and an expanded reliability-based design(RBD) approach is developed to assess the influence of correlation between c and φ on reliability of a rock slope. The Bayesian approach characterizes the sitespecific joint probability distribution of c and φ, and quantifies the correlation between c and φ using available limited data pairs of c and φ from a rock project. The expanded RBD approach uses the joint probability distribution of c and φ obtained through the Bayesian approach as inputs, to determine the reliability of a rock slope. The approach gives insight into the propagation of the correlation between c and φ through their joint probability into the reliability analysis, and their influence on the calculated reliability of the rock slope. The approaches may be applied in practice with little additional effort from a conventional analysis. The proposed approaches are illustrated using real c and φ data pairs obtained from laboratory tests of fractured rock at Forsmark, Sweden.展开更多
Ensuring software quality in open⁃source environments requires adaptive mechanisms to enhance scalability,optimize service provisioning,and improve reliability.This study presents the dynamic correlation analysis tech...Ensuring software quality in open⁃source environments requires adaptive mechanisms to enhance scalability,optimize service provisioning,and improve reliability.This study presents the dynamic correlation analysis technique to enhance software quality management in open⁃source environments by addressing dynamic scalability,adaptive service provisioning,and software reliability.The proposed methodology integrates a scalability metric,an optimized service provisioning model,and a weighted entropy⁃based reliability assessment to systematically improve key performance parameters.Experimental evaluation conducted on multiple open⁃source software(OSS)versions demonstrates significant improvements:scalability increased by 27.5%,service provisioning time reduced by 18.3%,and software reliability improved by 22.1%compared to baseline methods.A comparative analysis with prior works further highlights the effectiveness of this approach in ensuring adaptability,efficiency,and resilience in dynamic software ecosystems.Future work will focus on real⁃time monitoring and AI⁃driven adaptive provisioning to further enhance software quality management.展开更多
On the basis of each gear's failure correlation, the reliability Copula model of a wind turbine gearbox is established and a 1.5 MW wind turbine gearbox is taken as the research object. Firstly, based on the dynam...On the basis of each gear's failure correlation, the reliability Copula model of a wind turbine gearbox is established and a 1.5 MW wind turbine gearbox is taken as the research object. Firstly, based on the dynamic reliability model of mechanical parts, each gear's life distribution function of a wind turbine gearbox is obtained.The life distribution function can be used as the marginal distributions of the system's joint distribution. Secondly,Copula function is introduced to describe the failure correlation between parts, and the appropriate Copula function is selected according to the shape characters of Copula probability density function. Finally, the wind turbine gearbox system is divided into three parts according to the failure correlation of each gear. The Sklar theorem and the thought of step by step analysis are used to obtain the reliability Copula model for a wind turbine gearbox based on failure correlation.展开更多
Goal oriented( GO) methodology is a kind of success oriented system reliability analysis method and has been used widely.The repairable system with dual input closed-loop feedback link( DICLFL) considering shutdown co...Goal oriented( GO) methodology is a kind of success oriented system reliability analysis method and has been used widely.The repairable system with dual input closed-loop feedback link( DICLFL) considering shutdown correlation didn't make reliability analysis accurately based on existing GO methodology. So, a reliability analysis method used to deal with DICLFL considering shutdown correlation is provided based on GO methodology.Firstly, a new operator, which is used to describe DICLFL considering shutdown correlation,whose number is 1,is created and named as Type 9C operator. And then,the formulas of type 9C operator are derived based on Markov process theory. Finally,the new method presented in this paper is adopted to conduct the reliability analysis of an electro-hydraulic servo speed control system. The analysis result is compared with those of Monte Carlo simulation and fault tree analysis( FTA). The comparison results show that this new reliability analysis method based on GO methodology is feasible and meaningful for reliability analysis of repairable systems with DICLFL considering shutdown correlation.Meantime,it will be useful for more other applications.展开更多
This study aimed to assess the reliability of experienced Chinese orthodontists in evaluating treatment outcome and to determine the correlations between three diagnostic information sources. Sixty-nine experienced Ch...This study aimed to assess the reliability of experienced Chinese orthodontists in evaluating treatment outcome and to determine the correlations between three diagnostic information sources. Sixty-nine experienced Chinese orthodontic specialists each evaluated the outcome of orthodontic treatment of 108 Chinese patients. Three different information sources： study casts （SC）, lateral cephalometric X-ray images （LX） and facial photographs （PH） were generated at the end of treatment for 108 patients selected randomly from six orthodontic treatment centers throughout China. Six different assessments of treatment outcome were made by each orthodontist using data from the three information sources separately and in combination. Each assessment included both ranking and grading for each patient. The rankings of each of the 69 judges for the 108 patients were correlated with the rankings of each of the other judges yielding 13 873 Spearman rs values, ranging from -0.08 to ＋0.85. Of these, 90% were greater than 0.4, showing moderate-to-high consistency among the 69 orthodontists. In the combined evaluations, study casts were the most significant predictive component （R2=0.86, P〈0.000 1）, while the inclusion of lateral cephalometric films and facial photographs also contributed to a more comprehensive assessment （R2=0.96, P〈0.000 1）. Grading scores for SC＋LX and SC＋PH were highly significantly correlated with those for SC＋LX＋PH （r（SC＋LX）vs.（SC＋LX＋PH）=0.96, r（SC＋PH）vs.（SC＋LX＋PH）=0.97）, showing that either SC＋LX or SC＋PH is an excellent substitute for all three combined assessment,展开更多
Combined Reliability distribution with correlation analysis,a new method has been proposed to make Reliability distribution where considering the elements about structure correlation and failure correlation of subsyst...Combined Reliability distribution with correlation analysis,a new method has been proposed to make Reliability distribution where considering the elements about structure correlation and failure correlation of subsystems.Firstly,we make a sequence for subsystems by means of TOPSIS which comprehends the considerations of Reliability allocation,and introducing a Copula connecting function to set up a distribution model based on structure correlation,failure correlation and target correlation,and then acquiring reliability target area of all subsystems by Matlab.In this method,not only the traditional distribution considerations are concerned,but also correlation influences are involved,to achieve supplementing information and optimizing distribution.展开更多
With the improvement of equipment reliability,human factors have become the most uncertain part in the system.The standardized Plant Analysis of Risk-Human Reliability Analysis(SPAR-H)method is a reliable method in th...With the improvement of equipment reliability,human factors have become the most uncertain part in the system.The standardized Plant Analysis of Risk-Human Reliability Analysis(SPAR-H)method is a reliable method in the field of human reliability analysis(HRA)to evaluate human reliability and assess risk in large complex systems.However,the classical SPAR-H method does not consider the dependencies among performance shaping factors(PSFs),whichmay cause overestimation or underestimation of the risk of the actual situation.To address this issue,this paper proposes a new method to deal with the dependencies among PSFs in SPAR-H based on the Pearson correlation coefficient.First,the dependence between every two PSFs is measured by the Pearson correlation coefficient.Second,the weights of the PSFs are obtained by considering the total dependence degree.Finally,PSFs’multipliers are modified based on the weights of corresponding PSFs,and then used in the calculating of human error probability(HEP).A case study is used to illustrate the procedure and effectiveness of the proposed method.展开更多
The objective of this work is to analyse fatigue reliability of deck structures subjected to correlated crack growth.The stress intensity factors of the correlated cracks are obtained by finite element analysis and ba...The objective of this work is to analyse fatigue reliability of deck structures subjected to correlated crack growth.The stress intensity factors of the correlated cracks are obtained by finite element analysis and based on which the geometry correction functions are derived.The Monte Carlo simulations are applied to predict the statistical descriptors of correlated cracks based on the Paris-Erdogan equation.A probabilistic model of crack growth as a function of time is used to analyse the fatigue reliability of deck structures accounting for the crack propagation correlation.A deck structure is modelled as a series system of stiffened panels,where a stiffened panel is regarded as a parallel system composed of plates and are longitudinal.It has been proven that the method developed here can be conveniently applied to perform the fatigue reliability assessment of structures subjected to correlated crack growth.展开更多
The reliability and reliability sensitivity （ RS ） models are presented for the engineering problem involving truncated correlated normal variables （CNV）, and in the case an adaptive radial based sampling is used ...The reliability and reliability sensitivity （ RS ） models are presented for the engineering problem involving truncated correlated normal variables （CNV）, and in the case an adaptive radial based sampling is used to analyze the reliability and the RS. In the presented models, the truncated CNV is transformed to general CNV, and the value domains of the truncated CNV are treated as multiple failure modes, then the reliability and the RS with the truncated CNV are transformed to the general cases, on which an e^cient radial based sampling is used to analyze the trans- formed reliability and RS. An adaptive strategy is employed to search for the optimal radial in the sampling, by which the robustness of the method is improved. After the model concepts and the detailed implementation are given, several examples are presented to demonstrate the feasibility of the model and the efficiency of the solutions.展开更多
To accomplish the reliability analyses of the correlation of multi-analytical objectives,an innovative framework of Dimensional Synchronous Modeling(DSM)and correlation analysis is developed based on the stepwise mode...To accomplish the reliability analyses of the correlation of multi-analytical objectives,an innovative framework of Dimensional Synchronous Modeling(DSM)and correlation analysis is developed based on the stepwise modeling strategy,cell array operation principle,and Copula theory.Under this framework,we propose a DSM-based Enhanced Kriging(DSMEK)algorithm to synchronously derive the modeling of multi-objective,and explore an adaptive Copula function approach to analyze the correlation among multiple objectives and to assess the synthetical reliability level.In the proposed DSMEK and adaptive Copula methods,the Kriging model is treated as the basis function of DSMEK model,the Multi-Objective Snake Optimizer(MOSO)algorithm is used to search the optimal values of hyperparameters of basis functions,the cell array operation principle is adopted to establish a whole model of multiple objectives,the goodness of fit is utilized to determine the forms of Copula functions,and the determined Copula functions are employed to perform the reliability analyses of the correlation of multi-analytical objectives.Furthermore,three examples,including multi-objective complex function approximation,aeroengine turbine bladeddisc multi-failure mode reliability analyses and aircraft landing gear system brake temperature reliability analyses,are performed to verify the effectiveness of the proposed methods,from the viewpoints of mathematics and engineering.The results show that the DSMEK and adaptive Copula approaches hold obvious advantages in terms of modeling features and simulation performance.The efforts of this work provide a useful way for the modeling of multi-analytical objectives and synthetical reliability analyses of complex structure/system with multi-output responses.展开更多
Wind power is a kind of important green energy.Thus,wind turbines have been widely utilized around the world.Wind turbines are composed of many important components.Among these components,the failure rate of the trans...Wind power is a kind of important green energy.Thus,wind turbines have been widely utilized around the world.Wind turbines are composed of many important components.Among these components,the failure rate of the transmission system is relatively high in wind turbines.It is because the components are subjected to aerodynamic loads for a long time.In addition,its inertial load will result in fatigue fracture,wear and other problems.In this situation,wind turbines have to be repaired at a higher cost.Moreover,the traditional reliability methods are difficult to deal with the above challenges when performing the reliability analysis of the transmission system of wind turbines.To solve this problem,a stress-strength interference model based on performance degradation is introduced.Based on considering the strength degradation of each component,the improved Monte Carlomethod simulation based on the Back Propagation neural network is used to obtain the curve of system reliability over time.Finally,the Miner linear cumulative damage theory and the Carten-Dolan cumulative damage theory method are used to calculate the cumulative damage and fatigue life of the gear transmission system.展开更多
Based on the De.Morgan laws and Boolean simplification, a recursive decomposition method is introduced in this paper to identify the main exclusive safe paths and failed paths of a network. The reliability or the reli...Based on the De.Morgan laws and Boolean simplification, a recursive decomposition method is introduced in this paper to identify the main exclusive safe paths and failed paths of a network. The reliability or the reliability bound of a network can be conveniently expressed as the summation of the joint probabilities of these paths. Under the multivariate normal distribution assumption, a conditioned reliability index method is developed to evaluate joint probabilities of various exclusive safe paths and failed paths, and, finally, the seismic reliability or the reliability bound of an electric power system. Examples given in the paper show that the method is very simple and provides accurate results in the seismic reliability analysis.展开更多
An efficient resampling reliability approach was developed to consider the effect of statistical uncertainties in input properties arising due to insufficient data when estimating the reliability of rock slopes and tu...An efficient resampling reliability approach was developed to consider the effect of statistical uncertainties in input properties arising due to insufficient data when estimating the reliability of rock slopes and tunnels.This approach considers the effect of uncertainties in both distribution parameters(mean and standard deviation)and types of input properties.Further,the approach was generalized to make it capable of analyzing complex problems with explicit/implicit performance functions(PFs),single/multiple PFs,and correlated/non-correlated input properties.It couples resampling statistical tool,i.e.jackknife,with advanced reliability tools like Latin hypercube sampling(LHS),Sobol’s global sensitivity,moving least square-response surface method(MLS-RSM),and Nataf’s transformation.The developed approach was demonstrated for four cases encompassing different types.Results were compared with a recently developed bootstrap-based resampling reliability approach.The results show that the approach is accurate and significantly efficient compared with the bootstrap-based approach.The proposed approach reflects the effect of statistical uncertainties of input properties by estimating distributions/confidence intervals of reliability index/probability of failure(s)instead of their fixed-point estimates.Further,sufficiently accurate results were obtained by considering uncertainties in distribution parameters only and ignoring those in distribution types.展开更多
In this paper the simple generation algorithms are improved. According to the geometric meaning of the structural reliability index, a method is proposed to deal with the variables in the standard normal space. With c...In this paper the simple generation algorithms are improved. According to the geometric meaning of the structural reliability index, a method is proposed to deal with the variables in the standard normal space. With consideration of variable distribution, the correlation coefficient of the variables and its fuzzy reliability index, the feasibility and the reliability of the algorithms are proved with an example of structural reliability analysis and optimization.展开更多
In this study, a reliability index vector formula is proposed for series system with two failure modes in term of the concept of reliability index vector and equivalent failure modes. Firstly, the reliability index ve...In this study, a reliability index vector formula is proposed for series system with two failure modes in term of the concept of reliability index vector and equivalent failure modes. Firstly, the reliability index vector is introduced to determine the correlation coefficient between two failure modes, and then, the reliability index vector of a series system can be obtained. Several numerical cases and an analysis on offshore platform are performed, and the results show that this scheme provided here has better computational accuracy, and its calculation process is simpler for the series systems reliability calculations compared with the other methods. Also this scheme is more convenient for the engineering applications.展开更多
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52278180)。
文摘The fatigue of heavy-haul railway bridges is considered a key concern due to high stress levels and cyclic loading.The evaluation of fatigue reliability is required to include factor correlations.A major challenge is presented by the construction of the cumulative distribution function(CDF)and the description of correlations between random variables.In this study,the copula function is used to analyze the fatigue failure probability of the Shuohuang heavy-haul railway bridge.A C-vine copula(CVC)-based joint probability density function(JPDF)is derived with eight correlated parameters.To enhance efficiency in small failure probability calculations,the subset simulation and most probable point(MPP)Monte Carlo importance sampling are introduced based on the Rosenblatt transform and C-vine model.Comparisons with traditional Monte Carlo methods confirm that high accuracy and efficiency are achieved.The results show that when parameter correlations are ignored,failure probability is underestimated,increasing safety risks in bridge assessments.
基金supported by Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Team in University of China (Grant No. IRT0816)Key National Science & Technology Special Project on "High-Grade CNC Machine Tools and Basic Manufacturing Equipments" of China (Grant No. 2010ZX04014-014)+1 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 50875039)Key Projects in National Science & Technology Pillar Program during the 11th Five-year Plan Period of China (Grant No. 2009BAG12A02-A07-2)
文摘The correlation coefficients of random variables of mechanical structures are generally chosen with experience or even ignored,which cannot actually reflect the effects of parameter uncertainties on reliability.To discuss the selection problem of the correlation coefficients from the reliability-based sensitivity point of view,the theory principle of the problem is established based on the results of the reliability sensitivity,and the criterion of correlation among random variables is shown.The values of the correlation coefficients are obtained according to the proposed principle and the reliability sensitivity problem is discussed.Numerical studies have shown the following results：（1） If the sensitivity value of correlation coefficient ρ is less than（at what magnitude 0.000 01）,then the correlation could be ignored,which could simplify the procedure without introducing additional error.（2） However,as the difference between ρs,that is the most sensitive to the reliability,and ρR,that is with the smallest reliability,is less than 0.001,ρs is suggested to model the dependency of random variables.This could ensure the robust quality of system without the loss of safety requirement.（3） In the case of ｜Eabs｜ρ0.001 and also ｜Erel｜ρ0.001,ρR should be employed to quantify the correlation among random variables in order to ensure the accuracy of reliability analysis.Application of the proposed approach could provide a practical routine for mechanical design and manufactory to study the reliability and reliability-based sensitivity of basic design variables in mechanical reliability analysis and design.
文摘Adding buckling restrained braces(BRB)of reinforced concrete frame structure can effectively improve the safety performance of the structure.The dynamic reliability analysis based on Poisson continuous process assumption and the first exceeding failure probability can be used to obtain the failure probability of the buckling restrained brace frame system under earthquake load,and the relationship between the failure probabilities of each floor of the structure is analyzed to obtain the frame system reliability interval of frame structure.The results show that the reliability of BRB frame structure is higher than that of pure frame structure,and the discrete failure probability is lower.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.51135003,U1234208)National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program,Grant No.2014CB046303)+3 种基金High-class CNC Machine Tools and Basic Manufacturing Equipment of Important National Science and Technology Specific Projects(Grant No.2013ZX04011-011)National Key Laboratory of Mechanical System and Vibration Project(Grant No.MSV201402)Scientific Research Business Fund of Central Colleges and Universities(Grant No.N150304006)Excellent Talents Support Program for Colleges and Universities in Liaoning Province of China(Grant No.LJQ2014030)
文摘The current research of reliability allocation of CNC lathes always treat CNC lathes as independent series systems. However, CNC lathes are complex systems in the actual situation. Failure correlation is rarely considered when reliabil?ity allocation is conducted. In this paper, drawbacks of reliability model based on failure independence assumption are illustrated, after which, reliability model of CNC lathes considering failure correlation of subsystems is established based on Copula theory, which is an improvement of traditional reliability model of series systems. As the failure time of CNC lathes often obeys Weibull or exponential distribution, Gumbel Copula is selected to build correlation model. After that, a reliability allocation method considering failure correlation is analyzed based on the model established before. Reliability goal is set first and then failure rates are allocated to subsystems according to the allocation vector through solving the correlation model. Reliability allocation is conducted for t = 1. A real case of a CNC lathe and a numerical case are presented together to illustrate the advantages of the reliability model established consider?ing failure correlation and the corresponding allocation method. It shows that the model accords to facts and real working condition more, and failure rates allocated to all the subsystems are increased to some extent. This research proposes a reliability allocation method which takes failure correlation among subsystems of CNC lathes into consid?eration, and costs for design and manufacture could be decreased.
基金The Defence Advance Research Program of Science and Technology of Ship Industry(Grant No.11J1.3.1)
文摘The stiffened cylindrical shell is commonly used for the pressure hull of submersibles and the legs of offshore platforms. There are various failure modes because of uncertainty with the structural size and material properties, uncertainty of the calculation model and machining errors. Correlations among failure modes must be considered with the structural reliability of stiffened cylindrical shells. However, the traditional method cannot consider the correlations effectively. The aim of this study is to present a method of reliability analysis for stiffened cylindrical shells which considers the correlations among failure modes. Firstly, the joint failure probability calculation formula of two related failure modes is derived through use of the 2D joint probability density function. Secondly, the full probability formula of the tandem structural system is given with consideration to the correlations among failure modes. At last, the accuracy of the system reliability calculation is verified through use of the Monte Carlo simulation. Result of the analysis shows the failure probability of stiffened cylindrical shells can be gained through adding the failure probability of each mode.
基金supported by grants from the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong,Special Administrative Region,China [Project No.9042172 (CityU11200115)and Project No.8779012(T22-603/15N)]
文摘Cohesion(c) and friction angle(φ) of rock are important parameters required for reliability analysis of rock slope stability. There is correlation between c and φ which affects results of reliability analysis of rock slope stability. However, the characterization of joint probability distribution of c and φ through which their correlation can be estimated requires a large amount of rock property data, which are often not available for most rock engineering projects. As a result, the correlation between c and φ is often ignored or simply assumed during reliability studies, which may lead to bias estimation of failure probability. In probabilistic rock slope stability analysis, the influence of ignoring or simply assuming the correlation of the rock strength parameters(i.e., c and φ) on the reliability of rock slopes has not been fully investigated. In this study, a Bayesian approach is developed to characterize the correlation between c and φ, and an expanded reliability-based design(RBD) approach is developed to assess the influence of correlation between c and φ on reliability of a rock slope. The Bayesian approach characterizes the sitespecific joint probability distribution of c and φ, and quantifies the correlation between c and φ using available limited data pairs of c and φ from a rock project. The expanded RBD approach uses the joint probability distribution of c and φ obtained through the Bayesian approach as inputs, to determine the reliability of a rock slope. The approach gives insight into the propagation of the correlation between c and φ through their joint probability into the reliability analysis, and their influence on the calculated reliability of the rock slope. The approaches may be applied in practice with little additional effort from a conventional analysis. The proposed approaches are illustrated using real c and φ data pairs obtained from laboratory tests of fractured rock at Forsmark, Sweden.
文摘Ensuring software quality in open⁃source environments requires adaptive mechanisms to enhance scalability,optimize service provisioning,and improve reliability.This study presents the dynamic correlation analysis technique to enhance software quality management in open⁃source environments by addressing dynamic scalability,adaptive service provisioning,and software reliability.The proposed methodology integrates a scalability metric,an optimized service provisioning model,and a weighted entropy⁃based reliability assessment to systematically improve key performance parameters.Experimental evaluation conducted on multiple open⁃source software(OSS)versions demonstrates significant improvements:scalability increased by 27.5%,service provisioning time reduced by 18.3%,and software reliability improved by 22.1%compared to baseline methods.A comparative analysis with prior works further highlights the effectiveness of this approach in ensuring adaptability,efficiency,and resilience in dynamic software ecosystems.Future work will focus on real⁃time monitoring and AI⁃driven adaptive provisioning to further enhance software quality management.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51265025)
文摘On the basis of each gear's failure correlation, the reliability Copula model of a wind turbine gearbox is established and a 1.5 MW wind turbine gearbox is taken as the research object. Firstly, based on the dynamic reliability model of mechanical parts, each gear's life distribution function of a wind turbine gearbox is obtained.The life distribution function can be used as the marginal distributions of the system's joint distribution. Secondly,Copula function is introduced to describe the failure correlation between parts, and the appropriate Copula function is selected according to the shape characters of Copula probability density function. Finally, the wind turbine gearbox system is divided into three parts according to the failure correlation of each gear. The Sklar theorem and the thought of step by step analysis are used to obtain the reliability Copula model for a wind turbine gearbox based on failure correlation.
基金Technical Basis Projects of China's MIIT(Nos.ZQ092012B003,2012090003)
文摘Goal oriented( GO) methodology is a kind of success oriented system reliability analysis method and has been used widely.The repairable system with dual input closed-loop feedback link( DICLFL) considering shutdown correlation didn't make reliability analysis accurately based on existing GO methodology. So, a reliability analysis method used to deal with DICLFL considering shutdown correlation is provided based on GO methodology.Firstly, a new operator, which is used to describe DICLFL considering shutdown correlation,whose number is 1,is created and named as Type 9C operator. And then,the formulas of type 9C operator are derived based on Markov process theory. Finally,the new method presented in this paper is adopted to conduct the reliability analysis of an electro-hydraulic servo speed control system. The analysis result is compared with those of Monte Carlo simulation and fault tree analysis( FTA). The comparison results show that this new reliability analysis method based on GO methodology is feasible and meaningful for reliability analysis of repairable systems with DICLFL considering shutdown correlation.Meantime,it will be useful for more other applications.
基金supported by the Specific Research Project of Health Pro Bono Sector, Ministry of Health, China (200802056)
文摘This study aimed to assess the reliability of experienced Chinese orthodontists in evaluating treatment outcome and to determine the correlations between three diagnostic information sources. Sixty-nine experienced Chinese orthodontic specialists each evaluated the outcome of orthodontic treatment of 108 Chinese patients. Three different information sources： study casts （SC）, lateral cephalometric X-ray images （LX） and facial photographs （PH） were generated at the end of treatment for 108 patients selected randomly from six orthodontic treatment centers throughout China. Six different assessments of treatment outcome were made by each orthodontist using data from the three information sources separately and in combination. Each assessment included both ranking and grading for each patient. The rankings of each of the 69 judges for the 108 patients were correlated with the rankings of each of the other judges yielding 13 873 Spearman rs values, ranging from -0.08 to ＋0.85. Of these, 90% were greater than 0.4, showing moderate-to-high consistency among the 69 orthodontists. In the combined evaluations, study casts were the most significant predictive component （R2=0.86, P〈0.000 1）, while the inclusion of lateral cephalometric films and facial photographs also contributed to a more comprehensive assessment （R2=0.96, P〈0.000 1）. Grading scores for SC＋LX and SC＋PH were highly significantly correlated with those for SC＋LX＋PH （r（SC＋LX）vs.（SC＋LX＋PH）=0.96, r（SC＋PH）vs.（SC＋LX＋PH）=0.97）, showing that either SC＋LX or SC＋PH is an excellent substitute for all three combined assessment,
基金Sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51175222,51275205)
文摘Combined Reliability distribution with correlation analysis,a new method has been proposed to make Reliability distribution where considering the elements about structure correlation and failure correlation of subsystems.Firstly,we make a sequence for subsystems by means of TOPSIS which comprehends the considerations of Reliability allocation,and introducing a Copula connecting function to set up a distribution model based on structure correlation,failure correlation and target correlation,and then acquiring reliability target area of all subsystems by Matlab.In this method,not only the traditional distribution considerations are concerned,but also correlation influences are involved,to achieve supplementing information and optimizing distribution.
基金Shanghai Rising-Star Program(Grant No.21QA1403400)Shanghai Sailing Program(Grant No.20YF1414800)Shanghai Key Laboratory of Power Station Automation Technology(Grant No.13DZ2273800).
文摘With the improvement of equipment reliability,human factors have become the most uncertain part in the system.The standardized Plant Analysis of Risk-Human Reliability Analysis(SPAR-H)method is a reliable method in the field of human reliability analysis(HRA)to evaluate human reliability and assess risk in large complex systems.However,the classical SPAR-H method does not consider the dependencies among performance shaping factors(PSFs),whichmay cause overestimation or underestimation of the risk of the actual situation.To address this issue,this paper proposes a new method to deal with the dependencies among PSFs in SPAR-H based on the Pearson correlation coefficient.First,the dependence between every two PSFs is measured by the Pearson correlation coefficient.Second,the weights of the PSFs are obtained by considering the total dependence degree.Finally,PSFs’multipliers are modified based on the weights of corresponding PSFs,and then used in the calculating of human error probability(HEP).A case study is used to illustrate the procedure and effectiveness of the proposed method.
基金Supported by China Scholarship Council under Grant No.2008110133
文摘The objective of this work is to analyse fatigue reliability of deck structures subjected to correlated crack growth.The stress intensity factors of the correlated cracks are obtained by finite element analysis and based on which the geometry correction functions are derived.The Monte Carlo simulations are applied to predict the statistical descriptors of correlated cracks based on the Paris-Erdogan equation.A probabilistic model of crack growth as a function of time is used to analyse the fatigue reliability of deck structures accounting for the crack propagation correlation.A deck structure is modelled as a series system of stiffened panels,where a stiffened panel is regarded as a parallel system composed of plates and are longitudinal.It has been proven that the method developed here can be conveniently applied to perform the fatigue reliability assessment of structures subjected to correlated crack growth.
基金support of the Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC10572117and 50875213)Aviation Science Foundation(2007ZA53012)863 Project (2007AA04Z401)
文摘The reliability and reliability sensitivity （ RS ） models are presented for the engineering problem involving truncated correlated normal variables （CNV）, and in the case an adaptive radial based sampling is used to analyze the reliability and the RS. In the presented models, the truncated CNV is transformed to general CNV, and the value domains of the truncated CNV are treated as multiple failure modes, then the reliability and the RS with the truncated CNV are transformed to the general cases, on which an e^cient radial based sampling is used to analyze the trans- formed reliability and RS. An adaptive strategy is employed to search for the optimal radial in the sampling, by which the robustness of the method is improved. After the model concepts and the detailed implementation are given, several examples are presented to demonstrate the feasibility of the model and the efficiency of the solutions.
基金co-supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.52405293,52375237)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2024M754219)Shaanxi Province Postdoctoral Research Project Funding,China。
文摘To accomplish the reliability analyses of the correlation of multi-analytical objectives,an innovative framework of Dimensional Synchronous Modeling(DSM)and correlation analysis is developed based on the stepwise modeling strategy,cell array operation principle,and Copula theory.Under this framework,we propose a DSM-based Enhanced Kriging(DSMEK)algorithm to synchronously derive the modeling of multi-objective,and explore an adaptive Copula function approach to analyze the correlation among multiple objectives and to assess the synthetical reliability level.In the proposed DSMEK and adaptive Copula methods,the Kriging model is treated as the basis function of DSMEK model,the Multi-Objective Snake Optimizer(MOSO)algorithm is used to search the optimal values of hyperparameters of basis functions,the cell array operation principle is adopted to establish a whole model of multiple objectives,the goodness of fit is utilized to determine the forms of Copula functions,and the determined Copula functions are employed to perform the reliability analyses of the correlation of multi-analytical objectives.Furthermore,three examples,including multi-objective complex function approximation,aeroengine turbine bladeddisc multi-failure mode reliability analyses and aircraft landing gear system brake temperature reliability analyses,are performed to verify the effectiveness of the proposed methods,from the viewpoints of mathematics and engineering.The results show that the DSMEK and adaptive Copula approaches hold obvious advantages in terms of modeling features and simulation performance.The efforts of this work provide a useful way for the modeling of multi-analytical objectives and synthetical reliability analyses of complex structure/system with multi-output responses.
基金supports from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.52075081 and 52175130)the Innovation Training Programme for Chengdu university Students (CDUCX2022047)The Key Laboratory of Pattern Recognition and Intelligent Information Processing,Institutions of Higher Education of Sichuan Province,Chengdu University,China (MSSB-2022-08)are gratefully acknowledged.
文摘Wind power is a kind of important green energy.Thus,wind turbines have been widely utilized around the world.Wind turbines are composed of many important components.Among these components,the failure rate of the transmission system is relatively high in wind turbines.It is because the components are subjected to aerodynamic loads for a long time.In addition,its inertial load will result in fatigue fracture,wear and other problems.In this situation,wind turbines have to be repaired at a higher cost.Moreover,the traditional reliability methods are difficult to deal with the above challenges when performing the reliability analysis of the transmission system of wind turbines.To solve this problem,a stress-strength interference model based on performance degradation is introduced.Based on considering the strength degradation of each component,the improved Monte Carlomethod simulation based on the Back Propagation neural network is used to obtain the curve of system reliability over time.Finally,the Miner linear cumulative damage theory and the Carten-Dolan cumulative damage theory method are used to calculate the cumulative damage and fatigue life of the gear transmission system.
基金National Outstanding Youth Science Foundation of China Under Grant No.598251005
文摘Based on the De.Morgan laws and Boolean simplification, a recursive decomposition method is introduced in this paper to identify the main exclusive safe paths and failed paths of a network. The reliability or the reliability bound of a network can be conveniently expressed as the summation of the joint probabilities of these paths. Under the multivariate normal distribution assumption, a conditioned reliability index method is developed to evaluate joint probabilities of various exclusive safe paths and failed paths, and, finally, the seismic reliability or the reliability bound of an electric power system. Examples given in the paper show that the method is very simple and provides accurate results in the seismic reliability analysis.
文摘An efficient resampling reliability approach was developed to consider the effect of statistical uncertainties in input properties arising due to insufficient data when estimating the reliability of rock slopes and tunnels.This approach considers the effect of uncertainties in both distribution parameters(mean and standard deviation)and types of input properties.Further,the approach was generalized to make it capable of analyzing complex problems with explicit/implicit performance functions(PFs),single/multiple PFs,and correlated/non-correlated input properties.It couples resampling statistical tool,i.e.jackknife,with advanced reliability tools like Latin hypercube sampling(LHS),Sobol’s global sensitivity,moving least square-response surface method(MLS-RSM),and Nataf’s transformation.The developed approach was demonstrated for four cases encompassing different types.Results were compared with a recently developed bootstrap-based resampling reliability approach.The results show that the approach is accurate and significantly efficient compared with the bootstrap-based approach.The proposed approach reflects the effect of statistical uncertainties of input properties by estimating distributions/confidence intervals of reliability index/probability of failure(s)instead of their fixed-point estimates.Further,sufficiently accurate results were obtained by considering uncertainties in distribution parameters only and ignoring those in distribution types.
基金This work was financially supported by the National Science Foundation of China
文摘In this paper the simple generation algorithms are improved. According to the geometric meaning of the structural reliability index, a method is proposed to deal with the variables in the standard normal space. With consideration of variable distribution, the correlation coefficient of the variables and its fuzzy reliability index, the feasibility and the reliability of the algorithms are proved with an example of structural reliability analysis and optimization.
文摘In this study, a reliability index vector formula is proposed for series system with two failure modes in term of the concept of reliability index vector and equivalent failure modes. Firstly, the reliability index vector is introduced to determine the correlation coefficient between two failure modes, and then, the reliability index vector of a series system can be obtained. Several numerical cases and an analysis on offshore platform are performed, and the results show that this scheme provided here has better computational accuracy, and its calculation process is simpler for the series systems reliability calculations compared with the other methods. Also this scheme is more convenient for the engineering applications.
