Previous studies indicate that ENSO predictions are particularly sensitive to the initial conditions in some key areas（socalled ＂sensitive areas＂）. And yet, few studies have quantified improvements in prediction s...Previous studies indicate that ENSO predictions are particularly sensitive to the initial conditions in some key areas（socalled ＂sensitive areas＂）. And yet, few studies have quantified improvements in prediction skill in the context of an optimal observing system. In this study, the impact on prediction skill is explored using an intermediate coupled model in which errors in initial conditions formed to make ENSO predictions are removed in certain areas. Based on ideal observing system simulation experiments, the importance of various observational networks on improvement of El Ni n？o prediction skill is examined. The results indicate that the initial states in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are important to improve El Ni n？o prediction skill effectively. When removing the initial condition errors in the central equatorial Pacific, ENSO prediction errors can be reduced by 25%. Furthermore, combinations of various subregions are considered to demonstrate the efficiency on ENSO prediction skill. Particularly, seasonally varying observational networks are suggested to improve the prediction skill more effectively. For example, in addition to observing in the central equatorial Pacific and its north throughout the year,increasing observations in the eastern equatorial Pacific during April to October is crucially important, which can improve the prediction accuracy by 62%. These results also demonstrate the effectiveness of the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation approach on detecting sensitive areas for target observations.展开更多
An active perception methodology is proposed to locally predict the observability condition in a reasonable horizon and suggest an observability-constrained motion direction for the next step to ensure an accurate and...An active perception methodology is proposed to locally predict the observability condition in a reasonable horizon and suggest an observability-constrained motion direction for the next step to ensure an accurate and consistent state estimation performance of vision-based navigation systems. The methodology leverages an efficient EOG-based observability analysis and a motion primitive-based path sampling technique to realize the local observability prediction with a real-time performance. The observability conditions of potential motion trajectories are evaluated,and an informed motion direction is selected to ensure the observability efficiency for the state estimation system. The proposed approach is specialized to a representative optimizationbased monocular vision-based state estimation formulation and demonstrated through simulation and experiments to evaluate the ability of estimation degradation prediction and efficacy of motion direction suggestion.展开更多
基金supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA19060102)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41475101, 41690122, 41690120 and 41421005)the National Programme on Global Change and Air–Sea Interaction Interaction (Grant Nos. GASI-IPOVAI-06 and GASI-IPOVAI-01-01)
文摘Previous studies indicate that ENSO predictions are particularly sensitive to the initial conditions in some key areas（socalled ＂sensitive areas＂）. And yet, few studies have quantified improvements in prediction skill in the context of an optimal observing system. In this study, the impact on prediction skill is explored using an intermediate coupled model in which errors in initial conditions formed to make ENSO predictions are removed in certain areas. Based on ideal observing system simulation experiments, the importance of various observational networks on improvement of El Ni n？o prediction skill is examined. The results indicate that the initial states in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are important to improve El Ni n？o prediction skill effectively. When removing the initial condition errors in the central equatorial Pacific, ENSO prediction errors can be reduced by 25%. Furthermore, combinations of various subregions are considered to demonstrate the efficiency on ENSO prediction skill. Particularly, seasonally varying observational networks are suggested to improve the prediction skill more effectively. For example, in addition to observing in the central equatorial Pacific and its north throughout the year,increasing observations in the eastern equatorial Pacific during April to October is crucially important, which can improve the prediction accuracy by 62%. These results also demonstrate the effectiveness of the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation approach on detecting sensitive areas for target observations.
文摘An active perception methodology is proposed to locally predict the observability condition in a reasonable horizon and suggest an observability-constrained motion direction for the next step to ensure an accurate and consistent state estimation performance of vision-based navigation systems. The methodology leverages an efficient EOG-based observability analysis and a motion primitive-based path sampling technique to realize the local observability prediction with a real-time performance. The observability conditions of potential motion trajectories are evaluated,and an informed motion direction is selected to ensure the observability efficiency for the state estimation system. The proposed approach is specialized to a representative optimizationbased monocular vision-based state estimation formulation and demonstrated through simulation and experiments to evaluate the ability of estimation degradation prediction and efficacy of motion direction suggestion.
