BACKGROUND Colorectal polyps(CPs)are important precursor lesions of colorectal cancer,and endoscopic surgery remains the primary treatment option.However,the shortterm recurrence rate post-surgery is high,and the risk...BACKGROUND Colorectal polyps(CPs)are important precursor lesions of colorectal cancer,and endoscopic surgery remains the primary treatment option.However,the shortterm recurrence rate post-surgery is high,and the risk factors for recurrence remain unknown.AIM To comprehensively explore risk factors for short-term recurrence of CPs after endoscopic surgery and develop a nomogram prediction model.METHODS Overall,362 patients who underwent endoscopic polypectomy between January 2022 and January 2024 at Nanjing Jiangbei Hospital were included.We screened basic demographic data,clinical and polyp characteristics,surgery-related information,and independent risk factors for CPs recurrence using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses.The multivariate analysis results were used to construct a nomogram prediction model,internally validated using Bootstrapping,with performance evaluated using area under the curve(AUC),calibration curve,and decision curve analysis.RESULTS CP re-occurred in 166(45.86%)of the 362 patients within 1 year post-surgery.Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age(OR=1.04,P=0.002),alcohol consumption(OR=2.07,P=0.012),Helicobacter pylori infection(OR=2.34,P<0.001),polyp number>2(OR=1.98,P=0.005),sessile polyps(OR=2.10,P=0.006),and adenomatous pathological type(OR=3.02,P<0.001)were independent risk factors for post-surgery recurrence.The nomogram prediction model showed good discriminatory(AUC=0.73)and calibrating power,and decision curve analysis showed that the model had good clinical benefit at risk probabilities>20%.CONCLUSION We identified multiple independent risk factors for short-term recurrence after endoscopic surgery.The nomogram prediction model showed a certain degree of differentiation,calibration,and potential clinical applicability.展开更多
Sewer pipe condition assessment by performing regular inspections is crucial for ensuring the systems’effective operation and maintenance.CCTV(closed-circuit television)is widely employed in North America to examine ...Sewer pipe condition assessment by performing regular inspections is crucial for ensuring the systems’effective operation and maintenance.CCTV(closed-circuit television)is widely employed in North America to examine the internal conditions of sewage pipes.Due to the extensive inventory of pipes and associated costs,it is not practical for municipalities to conduct inspections on each sanitary sewage pipe section.According to the ASCE(American Society of Civil Engineers)infrastructure report published in 2021,combined investment needs for water and wastewater systems are estimated to be$150 billion during 2016-2025.Therefore,new solutions are needed to fill the trillion-dollar investment gap to improve the existing water and wastewater infrastructure for the coming years.ML(machine learning)based prediction model development is an effective method for predicting the condition of sewer pipes.In this research,sewer pipe inspection data from several municipalities are collected,which include variables such as pipe material,age,diameter,length,soil type,slope of construction,and PACP(Pipeline Assessment Certification Program)score.These sewer pipe data exhibit a severe imbalance in pipes’PACP scores,which is considered the target variable in the development of models.Due to this imbalanced dataset,the performance of the sewer prediction model is poor.This paper,therefore,aims to employ oversampling and hyperparameter tuning techniques to treat the imbalanced data and improve the model’s performance significantly.Utility owners and municipal asset managers can utilize the developed models to make more informed decisions on future inspections of sewer pipelines.展开更多
Objectives:This systematic review aimed to assess the properties and feasibility of existing risk prediction models for post-intensive care syndrome outcomes in adult survivors of critical illness.Methods:As of Novemb...Objectives:This systematic review aimed to assess the properties and feasibility of existing risk prediction models for post-intensive care syndrome outcomes in adult survivors of critical illness.Methods:As of November 1,2023,Cochrane Library,PubMed,Embase,CINAHL,Web of Science,PsycInfo,China National Knowledge Infrastructure(CNKI),SinoMed,Wanfang database,and China Science and Technology Journal Database(VIP)were searched.Following the literature screening process,we extracted data encompassing participant sources,post-intensive care syndrome(PICS)outcomes,sample sizes,missing data,predictive factors,model development methodologies,and metrics for model performance and evaluation.We conducted a review and classification of the PICS domains and predictive factors identified in each study.The Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool was employed to assess the quality and applicability of the studies.Results:This systematic review included a total of 16 studies,comprising two cognitive impairment studies,four psychological impairment studies,eight physiological impairment studies,and two studies on all three domains.The discriminative ability of prediction models measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.68e0.90.The predictive performance of most models was excellent,but most models were biased and overfitted.All predictive factors tend to encompass age,pre-ICU functional impairment,in-ICU experiences,and early-onset new symptoms.Conclusions:This review identified 16 prediction models and the predictive factors for PICS.Nonetheless,due to the numerous methodological and reporting shortcomings identified in the studies under review,clinicians should exercise caution when interpreting the predictions made by these models.To avert the development of PICS,it is imperative for clinicians to closely monitor prognostic factors,including the in-ICU experience and early-onset new symptoms.展开更多
Postoperative pancreatic fistula(POPF)is a frequent complication after pancre-atectomy,leading to increased morbidity and mortality.Optimizing prediction models for POPF has emerged as a critical focus in surgical res...Postoperative pancreatic fistula(POPF)is a frequent complication after pancre-atectomy,leading to increased morbidity and mortality.Optimizing prediction models for POPF has emerged as a critical focus in surgical research.Although over sixty models following pancreaticoduodenectomy,predominantly reliant on a variety of clinical,surgical,and radiological parameters,have been documented,their predictive accuracy remains suboptimal in external validation and across diverse populations.As models after distal pancreatectomy continue to be pro-gressively reported,their external validation is eagerly anticipated.Conversely,POPF prediction after central pancreatectomy is in its nascent stage,warranting urgent need for further development and validation.The potential of machine learning and big data analytics offers promising prospects for enhancing the accuracy of prediction models by incorporating an extensive array of variables and optimizing algorithm performance.Moreover,there is potential for the development of personalized prediction models based on patient-or pancreas-specific factors and postoperative serum or drain fluid biomarkers to improve accuracy in identifying individuals at risk of POPF.In the future,prospective multicenter studies and the integration of novel imaging technologies,such as artificial intelligence-based radiomics,may further refine predictive models.Addressing these issues is anticipated to revolutionize risk stratification,clinical decision-making,and postoperative management in patients undergoing pancre-atectomy.展开更多
Objective To cater to the demands for personalized health services from a deep learning per-spective by investigating the characteristics of traditional Chinese medicine(TCM)constitu-tion data and constructing models ...Objective To cater to the demands for personalized health services from a deep learning per-spective by investigating the characteristics of traditional Chinese medicine(TCM)constitu-tion data and constructing models to explore new prediction methods.Methods Data from students at Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine were collected and organized according to the 24 solar terms from January 21,2020,to April 6,2022.The data were used to identify nine TCM constitutions,including balanced constitution,Qi deficiency constitution,Yang deficiency constitution,Yin deficiency constitution,phlegm dampness constitution,damp heat constitution,stagnant blood constitution,Qi stagnation constitution,and specific-inherited predisposition constitution.Deep learning algorithms were employed to construct multi-layer perceptron(MLP),long short-term memory(LSTM),and deep belief network(DBN)models for the prediction of TCM constitutions based on the nine constitution types.To optimize these TCM constitution prediction models,this study in-troduced the attention mechanism(AM),grey wolf optimizer(GWO),and particle swarm op-timization(PSO).The models’performance was evaluated before and after optimization us-ing the F1-score,accuracy,precision,and recall.Results The research analyzed a total of 31655 pieces of data.(i)Before optimization,the MLP model achieved more than 90%prediction accuracy for all constitution types except the balanced and Qi deficiency constitutions.The LSTM model's prediction accuracies exceeded 60%,indicating that their potential in TCM constitutional prediction may not have been fully realized due to the absence of pronounced temporal features in the data.Regarding the DBN model,the binary classification analysis showed that,apart from slightly underperforming in predicting the Qi deficiency constitution and damp heat constitution,with accuracies of 65%and 60%,respectively.The DBN model demonstrated considerable discriminative power for other constitution types,achieving prediction accuracy rates and area under the receiver op-erating characteristic(ROC)curve(AUC)values exceeding 70%and 0.78,respectively.This indicates that while the model possesses a certain level of constitutional differentiation abili-ty,it encounters limitations in processing specific constitutional features,leaving room for further improvement in its performance.For multi-class classification problem,the DBN model’s prediction accuracy rate fell short of 50%.(ii)After optimization,the LSTM model,enhanced with the AM,typically achieved a prediction accuracy rate above 75%,with lower performance for the Qi deficiency constitution,stagnant blood constitution,and Qi stagna-tion constitution.The GWO-optimized DBN model for multi-class classification showed an increased prediction accuracy rate of 56%,while the PSO-optimized model had a decreased accuracy rate to 37%.The GWO-PSO-DBN model,optimized with both algorithms,demon-strated an improved prediction accuracy rate of 54%.Conclusion This study constructed MLP,LSTM,and DBN models for predicting TCM consti-tution and improved them based on different optimisation algorithms.The results showed that the MLP model performs well,the LSTM and DBN models were effective in prediction but with certain limitations.This study also provided a new technology reference for the es-tablishment and optimisation strategies of TCM constitution prediction models,and a novel idea for the treatment of non-disease.展开更多
BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer(CRC)is characterized by high heterogeneity,aggressiveness,and high morbidity and mortality rates.With machine learning(ML)algorithms,patient,tumor,and treatment features can be used to dev...BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer(CRC)is characterized by high heterogeneity,aggressiveness,and high morbidity and mortality rates.With machine learning(ML)algorithms,patient,tumor,and treatment features can be used to develop and validate models for predicting survival.In addition,important variables can be screened and different applications can be provided that could serve as vital references when making clinical decisions and potentially improving patient outcomes in clinical settings.AIM To construct prognostic prediction models and screen important variables for patients with stageⅠtoⅢCRC.METHODS More than 1000 postoperative CRC patients were grouped according to survival time(with cutoff values of 3 years and 5 years)and assigned to training and testing cohorts(7:3).For each 3-category survival time,predictions were made by 4 ML algorithms(all-variable and important variable-only datasets),each of which was validated via 5-fold cross-validation and bootstrap validation.Important variables were screened with multivariable regression methods.Model performance was evaluated and compared before and after variable screening with the area under the curve(AUC).SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP)further demonstrated the impact of important variables on model decision-making.Nomograms were constructed for practical model application.RESULTS Our ML models performed well;the model performance before and after important parameter identification was consistent,and variable screening was effective.The highest pre-and postscreening model AUCs 95%confidence intervals in the testing set were 0.87(0.81-0.92)and 0.89(0.84-0.93)for overall survival,0.75(0.69-0.82)and 0.73(0.64-0.81)for disease-free survival,0.95(0.88-1.00)and 0.88(0.75-0.97)for recurrence-free survival,and 0.76(0.47-0.95)and 0.80(0.53-0.94)for distant metastasis-free survival.Repeated cross-validation and bootstrap validation were performed in both the training and testing datasets.The SHAP values of the important variables were consistent with the clinicopathological characteristics of patients with tumors.The nomograms were created.CONCLUSION We constructed a comprehensive,high-accuracy,important variable-based ML architecture for predicting the 3-category survival times.This architecture could serve as a vital reference for managing CRC patients.展开更多
Fatigue assessment of welded joint is still far from being completely solved now,since many influencing factors coexist and some important ones should be considered in the developed life prediction models reasonably.T...Fatigue assessment of welded joint is still far from being completely solved now,since many influencing factors coexist and some important ones should be considered in the developed life prediction models reasonably.Thus,such influencing factors of welded joint fatigue are firstly summarized in this work;and then,the existing life prediction models are reviewed from two aspects,i.e.,uniaxial and multiaxial ones;finally,significant conclusions of existing experimental and theoretical researches and some suggestions on improving the fatigue assessment of welded joints,especially for the low-cycle fatigue with the occurrence of ratchetting,are provided.展开更多
Hepatocellular carcinoma （HCC） is a malignant disease with limited therapeutic options due to its aggressive progression. It places heaW burden on most low and middle income countries to treat HCC patients. Nowadays...Hepatocellular carcinoma （HCC） is a malignant disease with limited therapeutic options due to its aggressive progression. It places heaW burden on most low and middle income countries to treat HCC patients. Nowadays accurate HCC risk predictions can help making decisions on the need for HCC surveillance and antiviral therapy. HCC risk prediction models based on major risk factors of HCC are useful and helpful in providing adequate surveillance strategies to individuals who have different risk levels. Several risk prediction models among cohorts of different populations for estimating HCC incidence have been presented recently by using simple, efficient, and ready-to-use parameters. Moreover, using predictive scoring systems to assess HCC development can provide suggestions to improve clinical and public health approaches, making them more cost-effective and effort-effective, for inducing personalized surveillance programs according to risk stratification. In this review, the features of risk prediction models of HCC across different populations were summarized, and the perspectives of HCC risk prediction models were discussed as well.展开更多
In order to deeply research the structure discrepancy and modeling mechanism among different grey prediction models, the equivalence and unbiasedness of grey prediction models are analyzed and verified. The results sh...In order to deeply research the structure discrepancy and modeling mechanism among different grey prediction models, the equivalence and unbiasedness of grey prediction models are analyzed and verified. The results show that all the grey prediction models that are strictly derived from x^（0）（k） ＋az^（1）（k） = b have the identical model structure and simulation precision. Moreover, the unbiased simulation for the homogeneous exponential sequence can be accomplished. However, the models derived from dx^（1）/dt ＋ ax^（1）= b are only close to those derived from x^（0）（k） ＋ az^（1）（k） = b provided that ｜a｜ has to satisfy｜a｜ 0.1; neither could the unbiased simulation for the homogeneous exponential sequence be achieved. The above conclusions are proved and verified through some theorems and examples.展开更多
The geometry of a landslide dam plays a critical role in its stability and failure mode,and is influenced by the damming process.However,there is a lack of understanding of the factors that affect the 3D geometry of a...The geometry of a landslide dam plays a critical role in its stability and failure mode,and is influenced by the damming process.However,there is a lack of understanding of the factors that affect the 3D geometry of a landslide dam.To address this gap,we conducted a study using the smoothed particle hydrodynamics numerical method to investigate the evolution of landslide dams.Our study included 17 numerical simulations to examine the effects of several factors on the geometry of landslide dams,including valley inclination,sliding angle,landslide velocity,and landslide mass repose angle.Based on this,three rapid prediction models were established for calculating the maximum height,the minimum height,and the maximum width of a landslide dam.The results show that the downstream width of a landslide dam remarkably increases with the valley inclination.The position of the maximum dam height along the valley direction is independent of external factors and is always located in the middle of the landslide width area.In contrast,that position of the maximum dam height across the valley direction is significantly influenced by the sliding angle and landslide velocity.To validate our models,we applied them to three typical landslide dams and found that the calculated values of the landslide dam geometry were in good agreement with the actual values.The findings of the current study provide a better understanding of the evolution and geometry of landslide dams,giving crucial guidance for the prediction and early warning of landslide dam disasters.展开更多
There is still an obstacle to prevent neural network from wider and more effective applications, i.e., the lack of effective theories of models identification. Based on information theory and its generalization, this ...There is still an obstacle to prevent neural network from wider and more effective applications, i.e., the lack of effective theories of models identification. Based on information theory and its generalization, this paper introduces a universal method to achieve nonlinear models identification. Two key quantities, which are called nonlinear irreducible auto-correlation (NIAC) and generalized nonlinear irreducible auto-correlation (GNIAC), are defined and discussed. NIAC and GNIAC correspond with intrinstic irreducible auto-(dependency) (IAD) and generalized irreducible auto-(dependency) (GIAD) of time series respectively. By investigating the evolving trend of NIAC and GNIAC, the optimal auto-regressive order of nonlinear auto-regressive models could be determined naturally. Subsequently, an efficient algorithm computing NIAC and GNIAC is discussed. Experiments on simulating data sets and typical nonlinear prediction models indicate remarkable correlation between optimal auto-regressive order and the highest order that NIAC-GNIAC have a remarkable non-zero value, therefore demonstrate the validity of the proposal in this paper.展开更多
The structural health status of Hunan Road Bridge during its two-year service period from April 2015 to April 2017 was studied based on monitored data.The Hunan Road Bridge is the widest concrete self-anchored suspens...The structural health status of Hunan Road Bridge during its two-year service period from April 2015 to April 2017 was studied based on monitored data.The Hunan Road Bridge is the widest concrete self-anchored suspension bridge in China at present.Its structural changes and safety were evaluated using the health monitoring data,which included deformations,detailed stresses,and vibration characteristics.The influences of the single and dual effects comprising the ambient temperature changes and concrete shrinkage and creep(S&C)were analyzed based on the measured data.The ANSYS beam finite element model was established and validated by the measured bridge completion state.The comparative analyses of the prediction results of long-term concrete S&C effects were conducted using CEB-FIP 90 and B3 prediction models.The age-adjusted effective modulus method was adopted to simulate the aging behavior of concrete.Prestress relaxation was considered in the stepwise calculation.The results show that the transverse deviations of the towers are noteworthy.The spatial effect of the extra-wide girder is significant,as the compressive stress variations at the girder were uneven along the transverse direction.General increase and decrease in the girder compressive stresses were caused by seasonal ambient warming and cooling,respectively.The temperature gradient effects in the main girder were significant.Comparisons with the measured data showed that more accurate prediction results were obtained with the B3 prediction model,which can consider the concrete material parameters,than with the CEB-FIP 90 model.Significant deflection of the midspan girder in the middle region will be caused by the deviations of the cable anchoring positions at the girder ends and tower tops toward the midspan due to concrete S&C.The increase in the compressive stresses at the top plate and decrease in the stresses at the bottom plate at the middle midspan will be significant.The pre-deviations of the towers toward the sidespan and pre-lift of the midspan girder can reduce the adverse influences of concrete S&C on the structural health of the self-anchored suspension bridge with extra-wide concrete girder.展开更多
With the development of information and communication technologies,all public tertiary hospitals in China began to use online outpatient appointment systems.However,the phenomenon of patient no-shows in online outpati...With the development of information and communication technologies,all public tertiary hospitals in China began to use online outpatient appointment systems.However,the phenomenon of patient no-shows in online outpatient appointments is becoming more serious.The objective of this study is to design a prediction model for patient no-shows,thereby assisting hospitals in making relevant decisions,and reducing the probability of patient no-show behavior.We used 382,004 original online outpatient appointment records,and divided the data set into a training set(N_(1)=286,503),and a validation set(N_(2)=95,501).We used machine learning algorithms such as logistic regression,k-nearest neighbor(KNN),boosting,decision tree(DT),random forest(RF)and bagging to design prediction models for patient no-show in online outpatient appointments.The patient no-show rate of online outpatient appointment was 11.1%(N=42,224).From the validation set,bagging had the highest area under the ROC curve and AUC value,which was 0.990,followed by random forest and boosting models,which were 0.987 and 0.976,respectively.In contrast,compared with the previous prediction models,the area under ROC and AUC values of the logistic regression,decision tree,and k-nearest neighbors were lower at 0.597,0.499 and 0.843,respectively.This study demonstrates the possibility of using data from multiple sources to predict patient no-shows.The prediction model results can provide decision basis for hospitals to reduce medical resource waste,develop effective outpatient appointment policies,and optimize operations.展开更多
Ovarian cancer has one of the highest mortality rates among gynecological malignancies.This disease has a low early detection rate,a high postoperative recurrence rate,and a 5-year survival rate of only 40%.Hence,ther...Ovarian cancer has one of the highest mortality rates among gynecological malignancies.This disease has a low early detection rate,a high postoperative recurrence rate,and a 5-year survival rate of only 40%.Hence,there is an urgent need to improve the early diagnosis and prognosis of ovarian cancer.Prediction models can effectively estimate the risk of disease occurrence,as well as its prognosis.Recently,many studies have established multiple ovarian cancer prediction models based on different regions and populations.These models can improve the detection rate and optimize the prognosis management to a certain extent.Herein,the construction principle of the ovarian cancer risk prediction model and its validation are summarized;furthermore,comprehensive reviews and comparisons of the different types of these models are made.Therefore,our review may be of great significance for the whole course of ovarian cancer management.展开更多
Obscure gastrointestinal bleeding(OGIB)has traditionally been defined as gastrointestinal bleeding whose source remains unidentified after bidirectional endoscopy.OGIB can present as overt bleeding or occult bleeding,...Obscure gastrointestinal bleeding(OGIB)has traditionally been defined as gastrointestinal bleeding whose source remains unidentified after bidirectional endoscopy.OGIB can present as overt bleeding or occult bleeding,and small bowel lesions are the most common causes.The small bowel can be evaluated using capsule endoscopy,device-assisted enteroscopy,computed tomography enterography,or magnetic resonance enterography.Once the cause of smallbowel bleeding is identified and targeted therapeutic intervention is completed,the patient can be managed with routine visits.However,diagnostic tests may produce negative results,and some patients with small bowel bleeding,regardless of diagnostic findings,may experience rebleeding.Predicting those at risk of rebleeding can help clinicians form individualized surveillance plans.Several studies have identified different factors associated with rebleeding,and a limited number of studies have attempted to create prediction models for recurrence.This article describes prediction models developed so far for identifying patients with OGIB who are at greater risk of rebleeding.These models may aid clinicians in forming tailored patient management and surveillance.展开更多
Sites with varying geometric features were analyzed to develop the 85 th percentile speed prediction models for car and sports utility vehicle(SUV) at 50 m prior to the point of curvature(PC), PC, midpoint of a curve(...Sites with varying geometric features were analyzed to develop the 85 th percentile speed prediction models for car and sports utility vehicle(SUV) at 50 m prior to the point of curvature(PC), PC, midpoint of a curve(MC), point of tangent(PT) and 50 m beyond PT on four-lane median divided rural highways. The car and SUV speed data were combined in the analysis as they were found to be normally distributed and not significantly different. Independent parameters representing geometric features and speed at the preceding section were logically selected in stepwise regression analyses to develop the models. Speeds at various locations were found to be dependent on some combinations of curve length, curvature and speed in the immediately preceding section of the highway. Curve length had a significant effect on the speed at locations 50 m prior to PC, PC and MC. The effect of curvature on speed was observed only at MC. The curve geometry did not have a significant effect on speed from PT onwards. The speed at 50 m prior to PC and curvature is the most significant parameter that affects the speed at PC and MC, respectively. Before entering a horizontal curve, drivers possibly perceive the curve based on its length. Longer curve encourages drivers to maintain higher speed in the preceding tangent section. Further, drivers start experiencing the effect of curvature only after entering the curve and adjust speed accordingly. Practitioners can use these findings in designing consistent horizontal curve for vehicle speed harmony.展开更多
Importance:Acute kidney injury(AKI)is common in hospitalized children which could rapidly progress into chronic kidney disease if not timely diagnosed.Prognostic prediction models for AKI were established to identify ...Importance:Acute kidney injury(AKI)is common in hospitalized children which could rapidly progress into chronic kidney disease if not timely diagnosed.Prognostic prediction models for AKI were established to identify AKI early and improve children’s prognosis.Objective:To appraise prognostic prediction models for pediatric AKI.Methods:Four English and four Chinese databases were systematically searched from January 1,2010,to June 6,2022.Articles describing prognostic prediction models for pediatric AKI were included.The data extraction was based on the CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies checklist.The risk of bias(ROB)was assessed according to the Prediction model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool guideline.The quantitative synthesis of the models was not performed due to the lack of methods regarding the meta-analysis of prediction models.Results:Eight studies with 16 models were included.There were significant deficiencies in reporting and all models were considered at high ROB.The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve to predict AKI ranged from 0.69 to 0.95.However,only about one-third of models have completed internal or external validation.The calibration was provided only in four models.Three models allowed easy bedside calculation or electronic automation,and two models were evaluated for their impacts on clinical practice.Interpretation:Besides the modeling algorithm,the challenges for developing prediction models for pediatric AKI reflected by the reporting deficiencies included ways of handling baseline serum creatinine and age-dependent blood biochemical indexes.Moreover,few prediction models for pediatric AKI were performed for external validation,let alone the transformation in clinical practice.Further investigation should focus on the combination of prediction models and electronic automatic alerts.展开更多
Atopic dermatitis(AD)is the most common chronic inflammatory skin disease seriously affecting the quality of life of patients.Reliable and accurate evaluation methods are necessary for early diagnosis and effective AD...Atopic dermatitis(AD)is the most common chronic inflammatory skin disease seriously affecting the quality of life of patients.Reliable and accurate evaluation methods are necessary for early diagnosis and effective AD treatment.Thus,this study used machine learning(ML)to explore a novel diagnostic and therapeutic effect evaluation model for AD.Firstly,candidate model genes were screened from an integrated data set of four AD-related microarray datasets:GSE133477,GSE32924,GSE58558,and GSE107361,using Robust Rank Aggregation(RRA),and protein-protein interaction network(PPI).Next,three recognized models(REC)and three AD-associated gene models(AAG)established with LASSO,Logistic linear regression(LR),and random forest(RF)were developed and tested separately using GSE130588 and GSE99802 datasets.The results revealed that REC model of LASSO(model genes including IL7R,KRT16,CCL2,CD53,CCL18 and CCL22),REC model of LR(including IL7R,KRT16,CCL18)and AAG model of LR(including MX1,CCNB1,SERPINB13,ADAM19,CEP55,VMP1,TTC39A,and FCHSD1)accurately classified AD lesions and non-lesions based on the good AUCs(LASSO(REC):0.8761,and LR(REC and AAG):0.8302 in GSE130588;LASSO(REC):0.7761,and LR(REC and AAG):0.8783 in GSE99802).In Dupilumab,Crisaborole,and fezakinumab-treated samples,the LASSO(REC)and LR(AAG)models were positively correlated with SCORD(Pearson correlation coefficients of 0.55 and 0.69,respectively)and negatively correlated with the treatment length.In addition,the two models also accurately predicted the infiltration of immune cells in the skin lesions and non-lesions.Therefore,the ML-based predictive model provides a new approach to predicting AD diagnosis and the therapeutic effect of AD treatment options.展开更多
Background and Objectives:It has been found that ICU patients may encounter various complications during enteral nutrition(EN).Of these,feeding intolerance(FI)is a common issue that often necessitates the reduction or...Background and Objectives:It has been found that ICU patients may encounter various complications during enteral nutrition(EN).Of these,feeding intolerance(FI)is a common issue that often necessitates the reduction or cessation of EN.This study aims to evaluate risk prediction models for feeding intolerance(FI)in critically ill patients receiving EN by searching major public databases.Methods and Study Design:We searched for rele vant studies in Embase,PubMed,Web of Science,Chinese Biomedical Database(CBM),China National Knowledge Infrastructure(CNKI),Wanfang Data,and cqvip.com up until January 2024.Two researchers inde pendently conducted the screening and data extraction processes,and the quality of the literature was assessed us ing bias risk assessment tools.Results:A total of 13 references were included,and the subjects included patients with sepsis,pancreatitis or cerebral apoplexy;the incidence of FI was 35.2%-49.3%.The studies discussed the predictive performance of various models,with 11 studies reporting on their accuracy and calibration.The mod els demonstrated the area under the curve(AUC)of the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve or the con cordance index(C-index)between 0.70 and 0.91,sensitivity from 0.81 to 0.93,and specificity from 0.68 to 0.83.Conclusions:There is a critical need for risk prediction models for FI in critically ill patients on EN that are both internally and externally validated and exhibit high performance.展开更多
Root zone soil moisture(RZSM)plays a critical role in land-atmosphere hydrological cycles and serves as the primary water source for vegetation growth.However,the correlations between RZSM and its associated variables...Root zone soil moisture(RZSM)plays a critical role in land-atmosphere hydrological cycles and serves as the primary water source for vegetation growth.However,the correlations between RZSM and its associated variables,including surface soil moisture(SSM),often exhibit nonlinearities that are challenging to identify and quantify using conventional statistical techniques.Therefore,this study presents a hybrid convolutional neural network(CNN)-long short-term memory neural network(LSTM)-attention(CLA)model for predicting RZSM.Owing to the scarcity of soil moisture(SM)observation data,the physical model Hydrus-1D was employed to simulate a comprehensive dataset of spatial-temporal SM.Meteorological data and moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer vegetation characterization parameters were used as predictor variables for the training and validation of the CLA model.The results of the CLA model for SM prediction in the root zone were significantly enhanced compared with those of the traditional LSTM and CNN-LSTM models.This was particularly notable at the depth of 80–100 cm,where the fitness(R^(2))reached nearly 0.9298.Moreover,the root mean square error of the CLA model was reduced by 49%and 57%compared with those of the LSTM and CNN-LSTM models,respectively.This study demonstrates that the integration of physical modeling and deep learning methods provides a more comprehensive and accurate understanding of spatial-temporal SM variations in the root zone.展开更多
文摘BACKGROUND Colorectal polyps(CPs)are important precursor lesions of colorectal cancer,and endoscopic surgery remains the primary treatment option.However,the shortterm recurrence rate post-surgery is high,and the risk factors for recurrence remain unknown.AIM To comprehensively explore risk factors for short-term recurrence of CPs after endoscopic surgery and develop a nomogram prediction model.METHODS Overall,362 patients who underwent endoscopic polypectomy between January 2022 and January 2024 at Nanjing Jiangbei Hospital were included.We screened basic demographic data,clinical and polyp characteristics,surgery-related information,and independent risk factors for CPs recurrence using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses.The multivariate analysis results were used to construct a nomogram prediction model,internally validated using Bootstrapping,with performance evaluated using area under the curve(AUC),calibration curve,and decision curve analysis.RESULTS CP re-occurred in 166(45.86%)of the 362 patients within 1 year post-surgery.Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age(OR=1.04,P=0.002),alcohol consumption(OR=2.07,P=0.012),Helicobacter pylori infection(OR=2.34,P<0.001),polyp number>2(OR=1.98,P=0.005),sessile polyps(OR=2.10,P=0.006),and adenomatous pathological type(OR=3.02,P<0.001)were independent risk factors for post-surgery recurrence.The nomogram prediction model showed good discriminatory(AUC=0.73)and calibrating power,and decision curve analysis showed that the model had good clinical benefit at risk probabilities>20%.CONCLUSION We identified multiple independent risk factors for short-term recurrence after endoscopic surgery.The nomogram prediction model showed a certain degree of differentiation,calibration,and potential clinical applicability.
文摘Sewer pipe condition assessment by performing regular inspections is crucial for ensuring the systems’effective operation and maintenance.CCTV(closed-circuit television)is widely employed in North America to examine the internal conditions of sewage pipes.Due to the extensive inventory of pipes and associated costs,it is not practical for municipalities to conduct inspections on each sanitary sewage pipe section.According to the ASCE(American Society of Civil Engineers)infrastructure report published in 2021,combined investment needs for water and wastewater systems are estimated to be$150 billion during 2016-2025.Therefore,new solutions are needed to fill the trillion-dollar investment gap to improve the existing water and wastewater infrastructure for the coming years.ML(machine learning)based prediction model development is an effective method for predicting the condition of sewer pipes.In this research,sewer pipe inspection data from several municipalities are collected,which include variables such as pipe material,age,diameter,length,soil type,slope of construction,and PACP(Pipeline Assessment Certification Program)score.These sewer pipe data exhibit a severe imbalance in pipes’PACP scores,which is considered the target variable in the development of models.Due to this imbalanced dataset,the performance of the sewer prediction model is poor.This paper,therefore,aims to employ oversampling and hyperparameter tuning techniques to treat the imbalanced data and improve the model’s performance significantly.Utility owners and municipal asset managers can utilize the developed models to make more informed decisions on future inspections of sewer pipelines.
基金supported by the Scientific Research Project of Shanghai Municipal Health Commission(202140047)the Characteristic Research Project of Shanghai General Hospital(CCTR-2022N03)the Technology Standardization Management and Promotion Project of Shanghai Shenkang Hospital Development Center(SHDC22022219)and the funding organization has played no roles in the survey's design,implementation,and analysis.
文摘Objectives:This systematic review aimed to assess the properties and feasibility of existing risk prediction models for post-intensive care syndrome outcomes in adult survivors of critical illness.Methods:As of November 1,2023,Cochrane Library,PubMed,Embase,CINAHL,Web of Science,PsycInfo,China National Knowledge Infrastructure(CNKI),SinoMed,Wanfang database,and China Science and Technology Journal Database(VIP)were searched.Following the literature screening process,we extracted data encompassing participant sources,post-intensive care syndrome(PICS)outcomes,sample sizes,missing data,predictive factors,model development methodologies,and metrics for model performance and evaluation.We conducted a review and classification of the PICS domains and predictive factors identified in each study.The Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool was employed to assess the quality and applicability of the studies.Results:This systematic review included a total of 16 studies,comprising two cognitive impairment studies,four psychological impairment studies,eight physiological impairment studies,and two studies on all three domains.The discriminative ability of prediction models measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.68e0.90.The predictive performance of most models was excellent,but most models were biased and overfitted.All predictive factors tend to encompass age,pre-ICU functional impairment,in-ICU experiences,and early-onset new symptoms.Conclusions:This review identified 16 prediction models and the predictive factors for PICS.Nonetheless,due to the numerous methodological and reporting shortcomings identified in the studies under review,clinicians should exercise caution when interpreting the predictions made by these models.To avert the development of PICS,it is imperative for clinicians to closely monitor prognostic factors,including the in-ICU experience and early-onset new symptoms.
文摘Postoperative pancreatic fistula(POPF)is a frequent complication after pancre-atectomy,leading to increased morbidity and mortality.Optimizing prediction models for POPF has emerged as a critical focus in surgical research.Although over sixty models following pancreaticoduodenectomy,predominantly reliant on a variety of clinical,surgical,and radiological parameters,have been documented,their predictive accuracy remains suboptimal in external validation and across diverse populations.As models after distal pancreatectomy continue to be pro-gressively reported,their external validation is eagerly anticipated.Conversely,POPF prediction after central pancreatectomy is in its nascent stage,warranting urgent need for further development and validation.The potential of machine learning and big data analytics offers promising prospects for enhancing the accuracy of prediction models by incorporating an extensive array of variables and optimizing algorithm performance.Moreover,there is potential for the development of personalized prediction models based on patient-or pancreas-specific factors and postoperative serum or drain fluid biomarkers to improve accuracy in identifying individuals at risk of POPF.In the future,prospective multicenter studies and the integration of novel imaging technologies,such as artificial intelligence-based radiomics,may further refine predictive models.Addressing these issues is anticipated to revolutionize risk stratification,clinical decision-making,and postoperative management in patients undergoing pancre-atectomy.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(81904324)Sichuan Science and Technology Department Project(2022YFS0194).
文摘Objective To cater to the demands for personalized health services from a deep learning per-spective by investigating the characteristics of traditional Chinese medicine(TCM)constitu-tion data and constructing models to explore new prediction methods.Methods Data from students at Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine were collected and organized according to the 24 solar terms from January 21,2020,to April 6,2022.The data were used to identify nine TCM constitutions,including balanced constitution,Qi deficiency constitution,Yang deficiency constitution,Yin deficiency constitution,phlegm dampness constitution,damp heat constitution,stagnant blood constitution,Qi stagnation constitution,and specific-inherited predisposition constitution.Deep learning algorithms were employed to construct multi-layer perceptron(MLP),long short-term memory(LSTM),and deep belief network(DBN)models for the prediction of TCM constitutions based on the nine constitution types.To optimize these TCM constitution prediction models,this study in-troduced the attention mechanism(AM),grey wolf optimizer(GWO),and particle swarm op-timization(PSO).The models’performance was evaluated before and after optimization us-ing the F1-score,accuracy,precision,and recall.Results The research analyzed a total of 31655 pieces of data.(i)Before optimization,the MLP model achieved more than 90%prediction accuracy for all constitution types except the balanced and Qi deficiency constitutions.The LSTM model's prediction accuracies exceeded 60%,indicating that their potential in TCM constitutional prediction may not have been fully realized due to the absence of pronounced temporal features in the data.Regarding the DBN model,the binary classification analysis showed that,apart from slightly underperforming in predicting the Qi deficiency constitution and damp heat constitution,with accuracies of 65%and 60%,respectively.The DBN model demonstrated considerable discriminative power for other constitution types,achieving prediction accuracy rates and area under the receiver op-erating characteristic(ROC)curve(AUC)values exceeding 70%and 0.78,respectively.This indicates that while the model possesses a certain level of constitutional differentiation abili-ty,it encounters limitations in processing specific constitutional features,leaving room for further improvement in its performance.For multi-class classification problem,the DBN model’s prediction accuracy rate fell short of 50%.(ii)After optimization,the LSTM model,enhanced with the AM,typically achieved a prediction accuracy rate above 75%,with lower performance for the Qi deficiency constitution,stagnant blood constitution,and Qi stagna-tion constitution.The GWO-optimized DBN model for multi-class classification showed an increased prediction accuracy rate of 56%,while the PSO-optimized model had a decreased accuracy rate to 37%.The GWO-PSO-DBN model,optimized with both algorithms,demon-strated an improved prediction accuracy rate of 54%.Conclusion This study constructed MLP,LSTM,and DBN models for predicting TCM consti-tution and improved them based on different optimisation algorithms.The results showed that the MLP model performs well,the LSTM and DBN models were effective in prediction but with certain limitations.This study also provided a new technology reference for the es-tablishment and optimisation strategies of TCM constitution prediction models,and a novel idea for the treatment of non-disease.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.81802777.
文摘BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer(CRC)is characterized by high heterogeneity,aggressiveness,and high morbidity and mortality rates.With machine learning(ML)algorithms,patient,tumor,and treatment features can be used to develop and validate models for predicting survival.In addition,important variables can be screened and different applications can be provided that could serve as vital references when making clinical decisions and potentially improving patient outcomes in clinical settings.AIM To construct prognostic prediction models and screen important variables for patients with stageⅠtoⅢCRC.METHODS More than 1000 postoperative CRC patients were grouped according to survival time(with cutoff values of 3 years and 5 years)and assigned to training and testing cohorts(7:3).For each 3-category survival time,predictions were made by 4 ML algorithms(all-variable and important variable-only datasets),each of which was validated via 5-fold cross-validation and bootstrap validation.Important variables were screened with multivariable regression methods.Model performance was evaluated and compared before and after variable screening with the area under the curve(AUC).SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP)further demonstrated the impact of important variables on model decision-making.Nomograms were constructed for practical model application.RESULTS Our ML models performed well;the model performance before and after important parameter identification was consistent,and variable screening was effective.The highest pre-and postscreening model AUCs 95%confidence intervals in the testing set were 0.87(0.81-0.92)and 0.89(0.84-0.93)for overall survival,0.75(0.69-0.82)and 0.73(0.64-0.81)for disease-free survival,0.95(0.88-1.00)and 0.88(0.75-0.97)for recurrence-free survival,and 0.76(0.47-0.95)and 0.80(0.53-0.94)for distant metastasis-free survival.Repeated cross-validation and bootstrap validation were performed in both the training and testing datasets.The SHAP values of the important variables were consistent with the clinicopathological characteristics of patients with tumors.The nomograms were created.CONCLUSION We constructed a comprehensive,high-accuracy,important variable-based ML architecture for predicting the 3-category survival times.This architecture could serve as a vital reference for managing CRC patients.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant 11532010).
文摘Fatigue assessment of welded joint is still far from being completely solved now,since many influencing factors coexist and some important ones should be considered in the developed life prediction models reasonably.Thus,such influencing factors of welded joint fatigue are firstly summarized in this work;and then,the existing life prediction models are reviewed from two aspects,i.e.,uniaxial and multiaxial ones;finally,significant conclusions of existing experimental and theoretical researches and some suggestions on improving the fatigue assessment of welded joints,especially for the low-cycle fatigue with the occurrence of ratchetting,are provided.
基金supported by funds from the National Key Basic Research Program "973 project" (2015CB554000)the State Key Project Specialized for Infectious Diseases of China (No.2008ZX10002-015 and 2012ZX10002008-002)the Foundation for Innovative Research Groups of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.81421001)
文摘Hepatocellular carcinoma （HCC） is a malignant disease with limited therapeutic options due to its aggressive progression. It places heaW burden on most low and middle income countries to treat HCC patients. Nowadays accurate HCC risk predictions can help making decisions on the need for HCC surveillance and antiviral therapy. HCC risk prediction models based on major risk factors of HCC are useful and helpful in providing adequate surveillance strategies to individuals who have different risk levels. Several risk prediction models among cohorts of different populations for estimating HCC incidence have been presented recently by using simple, efficient, and ready-to-use parameters. Moreover, using predictive scoring systems to assess HCC development can provide suggestions to improve clinical and public health approaches, making them more cost-effective and effort-effective, for inducing personalized surveillance programs according to risk stratification. In this review, the features of risk prediction models of HCC across different populations were summarized, and the perspectives of HCC risk prediction models were discussed as well.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(1147105951375517+5 种基金71271226)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Funded Project(2014M560712)Chongqing Frontier and Applied Basic Research Project(cstc2014jcyj A00024)the Ministry of Education of Humanities and Social Sciences Youth Foundation(14YJAZH033)the Chongqing Municipal Education Scientific Planning Project(2012-GX-142)the Higher School Teaching Reform Research Project in Chongqing(1202010)
文摘In order to deeply research the structure discrepancy and modeling mechanism among different grey prediction models, the equivalence and unbiasedness of grey prediction models are analyzed and verified. The results show that all the grey prediction models that are strictly derived from x^（0）（k） ＋az^（1）（k） = b have the identical model structure and simulation precision. Moreover, the unbiased simulation for the homogeneous exponential sequence can be accomplished. However, the models derived from dx^（1）/dt ＋ ax^（1）= b are only close to those derived from x^（0）（k） ＋ az^（1）（k） = b provided that ｜a｜ has to satisfy｜a｜ 0.1; neither could the unbiased simulation for the homogeneous exponential sequence be achieved. The above conclusions are proved and verified through some theorems and examples.
基金funding from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42207228,51879036,51579032)the Liaoning Revitalization Talents Program(XLYC2002036)the Sichuan Science and Technology Program(2022NSFSC1060)。
文摘The geometry of a landslide dam plays a critical role in its stability and failure mode,and is influenced by the damming process.However,there is a lack of understanding of the factors that affect the 3D geometry of a landslide dam.To address this gap,we conducted a study using the smoothed particle hydrodynamics numerical method to investigate the evolution of landslide dams.Our study included 17 numerical simulations to examine the effects of several factors on the geometry of landslide dams,including valley inclination,sliding angle,landslide velocity,and landslide mass repose angle.Based on this,three rapid prediction models were established for calculating the maximum height,the minimum height,and the maximum width of a landslide dam.The results show that the downstream width of a landslide dam remarkably increases with the valley inclination.The position of the maximum dam height along the valley direction is independent of external factors and is always located in the middle of the landslide width area.In contrast,that position of the maximum dam height across the valley direction is significantly influenced by the sliding angle and landslide velocity.To validate our models,we applied them to three typical landslide dams and found that the calculated values of the landslide dam geometry were in good agreement with the actual values.The findings of the current study provide a better understanding of the evolution and geometry of landslide dams,giving crucial guidance for the prediction and early warning of landslide dam disasters.
文摘There is still an obstacle to prevent neural network from wider and more effective applications, i.e., the lack of effective theories of models identification. Based on information theory and its generalization, this paper introduces a universal method to achieve nonlinear models identification. Two key quantities, which are called nonlinear irreducible auto-correlation (NIAC) and generalized nonlinear irreducible auto-correlation (GNIAC), are defined and discussed. NIAC and GNIAC correspond with intrinstic irreducible auto-(dependency) (IAD) and generalized irreducible auto-(dependency) (GIAD) of time series respectively. By investigating the evolving trend of NIAC and GNIAC, the optimal auto-regressive order of nonlinear auto-regressive models could be determined naturally. Subsequently, an efficient algorithm computing NIAC and GNIAC is discussed. Experiments on simulating data sets and typical nonlinear prediction models indicate remarkable correlation between optimal auto-regressive order and the highest order that NIAC-GNIAC have a remarkable non-zero value, therefore demonstrate the validity of the proposal in this paper.
基金Project(201606090050)supported by China Scholarship CouncilProject(51278104)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China+2 种基金Project(2011Y03)supported by Jiangsu Province Transportation Scientific Research Programs,ChinaProject(20133204120015)supported by the Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of ChinaProject(12KJB560003)supported by Jiangsu Province Universities Natural Science Foundation,China
文摘The structural health status of Hunan Road Bridge during its two-year service period from April 2015 to April 2017 was studied based on monitored data.The Hunan Road Bridge is the widest concrete self-anchored suspension bridge in China at present.Its structural changes and safety were evaluated using the health monitoring data,which included deformations,detailed stresses,and vibration characteristics.The influences of the single and dual effects comprising the ambient temperature changes and concrete shrinkage and creep(S&C)were analyzed based on the measured data.The ANSYS beam finite element model was established and validated by the measured bridge completion state.The comparative analyses of the prediction results of long-term concrete S&C effects were conducted using CEB-FIP 90 and B3 prediction models.The age-adjusted effective modulus method was adopted to simulate the aging behavior of concrete.Prestress relaxation was considered in the stepwise calculation.The results show that the transverse deviations of the towers are noteworthy.The spatial effect of the extra-wide girder is significant,as the compressive stress variations at the girder were uneven along the transverse direction.General increase and decrease in the girder compressive stresses were caused by seasonal ambient warming and cooling,respectively.The temperature gradient effects in the main girder were significant.Comparisons with the measured data showed that more accurate prediction results were obtained with the B3 prediction model,which can consider the concrete material parameters,than with the CEB-FIP 90 model.Significant deflection of the midspan girder in the middle region will be caused by the deviations of the cable anchoring positions at the girder ends and tower tops toward the midspan due to concrete S&C.The increase in the compressive stresses at the top plate and decrease in the stresses at the bottom plate at the middle midspan will be significant.The pre-deviations of the towers toward the sidespan and pre-lift of the midspan girder can reduce the adverse influences of concrete S&C on the structural health of the self-anchored suspension bridge with extra-wide concrete girder.
基金National Natural Science Foundation Program of China[No.71971092],[No.71671073]and[71810107003].
文摘With the development of information and communication technologies,all public tertiary hospitals in China began to use online outpatient appointment systems.However,the phenomenon of patient no-shows in online outpatient appointments is becoming more serious.The objective of this study is to design a prediction model for patient no-shows,thereby assisting hospitals in making relevant decisions,and reducing the probability of patient no-show behavior.We used 382,004 original online outpatient appointment records,and divided the data set into a training set(N_(1)=286,503),and a validation set(N_(2)=95,501).We used machine learning algorithms such as logistic regression,k-nearest neighbor(KNN),boosting,decision tree(DT),random forest(RF)and bagging to design prediction models for patient no-show in online outpatient appointments.The patient no-show rate of online outpatient appointment was 11.1%(N=42,224).From the validation set,bagging had the highest area under the ROC curve and AUC value,which was 0.990,followed by random forest and boosting models,which were 0.987 and 0.976,respectively.In contrast,compared with the previous prediction models,the area under ROC and AUC values of the logistic regression,decision tree,and k-nearest neighbors were lower at 0.597,0.499 and 0.843,respectively.This study demonstrates the possibility of using data from multiple sources to predict patient no-shows.The prediction model results can provide decision basis for hospitals to reduce medical resource waste,develop effective outpatient appointment policies,and optimize operations.
基金the Shanghai Municipal Key Clinical Specialty Program(No.shslczdzk06302)。
文摘Ovarian cancer has one of the highest mortality rates among gynecological malignancies.This disease has a low early detection rate,a high postoperative recurrence rate,and a 5-year survival rate of only 40%.Hence,there is an urgent need to improve the early diagnosis and prognosis of ovarian cancer.Prediction models can effectively estimate the risk of disease occurrence,as well as its prognosis.Recently,many studies have established multiple ovarian cancer prediction models based on different regions and populations.These models can improve the detection rate and optimize the prognosis management to a certain extent.Herein,the construction principle of the ovarian cancer risk prediction model and its validation are summarized;furthermore,comprehensive reviews and comparisons of the different types of these models are made.Therefore,our review may be of great significance for the whole course of ovarian cancer management.
文摘Obscure gastrointestinal bleeding(OGIB)has traditionally been defined as gastrointestinal bleeding whose source remains unidentified after bidirectional endoscopy.OGIB can present as overt bleeding or occult bleeding,and small bowel lesions are the most common causes.The small bowel can be evaluated using capsule endoscopy,device-assisted enteroscopy,computed tomography enterography,or magnetic resonance enterography.Once the cause of smallbowel bleeding is identified and targeted therapeutic intervention is completed,the patient can be managed with routine visits.However,diagnostic tests may produce negative results,and some patients with small bowel bleeding,regardless of diagnostic findings,may experience rebleeding.Predicting those at risk of rebleeding can help clinicians form individualized surveillance plans.Several studies have identified different factors associated with rebleeding,and a limited number of studies have attempted to create prediction models for recurrence.This article describes prediction models developed so far for identifying patients with OGIB who are at greater risk of rebleeding.These models may aid clinicians in forming tailored patient management and surveillance.
基金Indian Institute of Technology Bombay for providing funding (Project code:13IRCCSG001)
文摘Sites with varying geometric features were analyzed to develop the 85 th percentile speed prediction models for car and sports utility vehicle(SUV) at 50 m prior to the point of curvature(PC), PC, midpoint of a curve(MC), point of tangent(PT) and 50 m beyond PT on four-lane median divided rural highways. The car and SUV speed data were combined in the analysis as they were found to be normally distributed and not significantly different. Independent parameters representing geometric features and speed at the preceding section were logically selected in stepwise regression analyses to develop the models. Speeds at various locations were found to be dependent on some combinations of curve length, curvature and speed in the immediately preceding section of the highway. Curve length had a significant effect on the speed at locations 50 m prior to PC, PC and MC. The effect of curvature on speed was observed only at MC. The curve geometry did not have a significant effect on speed from PT onwards. The speed at 50 m prior to PC and curvature is the most significant parameter that affects the speed at PC and MC, respectively. Before entering a horizontal curve, drivers possibly perceive the curve based on its length. Longer curve encourages drivers to maintain higher speed in the preceding tangent section. Further, drivers start experiencing the effect of curvature only after entering the curve and adjust speed accordingly. Practitioners can use these findings in designing consistent horizontal curve for vehicle speed harmony.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,Grant/Award Number:72174128High-Level Public Health Technical Talent Training Plan,Grant/Award Number:2022-2-026
文摘Importance:Acute kidney injury(AKI)is common in hospitalized children which could rapidly progress into chronic kidney disease if not timely diagnosed.Prognostic prediction models for AKI were established to identify AKI early and improve children’s prognosis.Objective:To appraise prognostic prediction models for pediatric AKI.Methods:Four English and four Chinese databases were systematically searched from January 1,2010,to June 6,2022.Articles describing prognostic prediction models for pediatric AKI were included.The data extraction was based on the CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies checklist.The risk of bias(ROB)was assessed according to the Prediction model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool guideline.The quantitative synthesis of the models was not performed due to the lack of methods regarding the meta-analysis of prediction models.Results:Eight studies with 16 models were included.There were significant deficiencies in reporting and all models were considered at high ROB.The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve to predict AKI ranged from 0.69 to 0.95.However,only about one-third of models have completed internal or external validation.The calibration was provided only in four models.Three models allowed easy bedside calculation or electronic automation,and two models were evaluated for their impacts on clinical practice.Interpretation:Besides the modeling algorithm,the challenges for developing prediction models for pediatric AKI reflected by the reporting deficiencies included ways of handling baseline serum creatinine and age-dependent blood biochemical indexes.Moreover,few prediction models for pediatric AKI were performed for external validation,let alone the transformation in clinical practice.Further investigation should focus on the combination of prediction models and electronic automatic alerts.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(82003326,82103704)the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province(2021JJ40924)+1 种基金the Wisdom Accumulation and Talent Cultivation Project of the Third Xiangya Hospital of Central South University(YX202007)the Science and Technology Innovation Program of Hunan Province(2021RC3035).
文摘Atopic dermatitis(AD)is the most common chronic inflammatory skin disease seriously affecting the quality of life of patients.Reliable and accurate evaluation methods are necessary for early diagnosis and effective AD treatment.Thus,this study used machine learning(ML)to explore a novel diagnostic and therapeutic effect evaluation model for AD.Firstly,candidate model genes were screened from an integrated data set of four AD-related microarray datasets:GSE133477,GSE32924,GSE58558,and GSE107361,using Robust Rank Aggregation(RRA),and protein-protein interaction network(PPI).Next,three recognized models(REC)and three AD-associated gene models(AAG)established with LASSO,Logistic linear regression(LR),and random forest(RF)were developed and tested separately using GSE130588 and GSE99802 datasets.The results revealed that REC model of LASSO(model genes including IL7R,KRT16,CCL2,CD53,CCL18 and CCL22),REC model of LR(including IL7R,KRT16,CCL18)and AAG model of LR(including MX1,CCNB1,SERPINB13,ADAM19,CEP55,VMP1,TTC39A,and FCHSD1)accurately classified AD lesions and non-lesions based on the good AUCs(LASSO(REC):0.8761,and LR(REC and AAG):0.8302 in GSE130588;LASSO(REC):0.7761,and LR(REC and AAG):0.8783 in GSE99802).In Dupilumab,Crisaborole,and fezakinumab-treated samples,the LASSO(REC)and LR(AAG)models were positively correlated with SCORD(Pearson correlation coefficients of 0.55 and 0.69,respectively)and negatively correlated with the treatment length.In addition,the two models also accurately predicted the infiltration of immune cells in the skin lesions and non-lesions.Therefore,the ML-based predictive model provides a new approach to predicting AD diagnosis and the therapeutic effect of AD treatment options.
基金supported by the Research and Development Program of Chuanbei Medical College(CBY23-QNA17)Nan chong City,Sichuan Province.
文摘Background and Objectives:It has been found that ICU patients may encounter various complications during enteral nutrition(EN).Of these,feeding intolerance(FI)is a common issue that often necessitates the reduction or cessation of EN.This study aims to evaluate risk prediction models for feeding intolerance(FI)in critically ill patients receiving EN by searching major public databases.Methods and Study Design:We searched for rele vant studies in Embase,PubMed,Web of Science,Chinese Biomedical Database(CBM),China National Knowledge Infrastructure(CNKI),Wanfang Data,and cqvip.com up until January 2024.Two researchers inde pendently conducted the screening and data extraction processes,and the quality of the literature was assessed us ing bias risk assessment tools.Results:A total of 13 references were included,and the subjects included patients with sepsis,pancreatitis or cerebral apoplexy;the incidence of FI was 35.2%-49.3%.The studies discussed the predictive performance of various models,with 11 studies reporting on their accuracy and calibration.The mod els demonstrated the area under the curve(AUC)of the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve or the con cordance index(C-index)between 0.70 and 0.91,sensitivity from 0.81 to 0.93,and specificity from 0.68 to 0.83.Conclusions:There is a critical need for risk prediction models for FI in critically ill patients on EN that are both internally and externally validated and exhibit high performance.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42061065)the Third Xinjiang Comprehensive Scientific Expedition,China(No.2022xjkk03010102).
文摘Root zone soil moisture(RZSM)plays a critical role in land-atmosphere hydrological cycles and serves as the primary water source for vegetation growth.However,the correlations between RZSM and its associated variables,including surface soil moisture(SSM),often exhibit nonlinearities that are challenging to identify and quantify using conventional statistical techniques.Therefore,this study presents a hybrid convolutional neural network(CNN)-long short-term memory neural network(LSTM)-attention(CLA)model for predicting RZSM.Owing to the scarcity of soil moisture(SM)observation data,the physical model Hydrus-1D was employed to simulate a comprehensive dataset of spatial-temporal SM.Meteorological data and moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer vegetation characterization parameters were used as predictor variables for the training and validation of the CLA model.The results of the CLA model for SM prediction in the root zone were significantly enhanced compared with those of the traditional LSTM and CNN-LSTM models.This was particularly notable at the depth of 80–100 cm,where the fitness(R^(2))reached nearly 0.9298.Moreover,the root mean square error of the CLA model was reduced by 49%and 57%compared with those of the LSTM and CNN-LSTM models,respectively.This study demonstrates that the integration of physical modeling and deep learning methods provides a more comprehensive and accurate understanding of spatial-temporal SM variations in the root zone.
