Wind turbines are continuously exposed to harsh environmental and operational conditions throughout their lifetime,leading to the gradual degradation of their components.If left unaddressed,these degraded components c...Wind turbines are continuously exposed to harsh environmental and operational conditions throughout their lifetime,leading to the gradual degradation of their components.If left unaddressed,these degraded components can adversely affect turbine performance and significantly increase the likelihood of failure.As degradation progresses,the risk of failure escalates,making it essential to implement appropriate risk control measures.One effective risk control method involves performing inspection and monitoring activities that provide valuable insights into the condition of the structure,enabling the formulation of appropriate maintenance strategies based on accurate assessments.Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition(SCADA)systems offer low-resolution condition monitoring data that can be used for fault detection,diagnosis,quantification,prognosis,and maintenance planning.One commonly used method involves predicting power generation using SCADA data and comparing it against measured power generation.Significant discrepancies between predicted and measured values can indicate suboptimal operation,natural aging,or unnatural faults.Various predictive models,including parametric and non-parametric(statistical)approaches,have been proposed for estimating power generation.However,the imperfect nature of these models introduces uncertainties in the predicted power output.Additionally,SCADA monitoring data is prone to uncertainties arising from various sources.The presence of uncertainties from these two sources-imperfect predictive models and imperfect SCADA data-introduces uncertainty in the predicted power generation.This uncertainty complicates the process of determining whether discrepancies between measured and predicted values are significant enough to warrant maintenance actions.Depending on the nature of uncertainty-aleatory,arising from inherent randomness,or epistemic,stemming from incomplete knowledge or limited data-different analytical approaches,like Probabilistic and Possibilistic,can be applied for effective management.Both,Probabilistic and Possibilistic,Approaches offer distinct advantages and limitations.The Possibilistic Approach,rooted in fuzzy set theory,is particularly well suited for addressing epistemic uncertainties,especially those caused by imprecision or sparse statistical information.This makes it especially relevant for applications such as wind turbines,where it is often challenging to construct accurate probability distribution functions for environmental parameters due to limited sensor data from hard-to-access locations.This research focuses on developing a methodology for identifying suboptimal operation in wind turbines by comparing Grid Produced Power(Measured Produced Power)with Predicted Produced Power.To achieve this,the paper introduces a Possibilistic Approach for power prediction that accounts for uncertainties stemming from both model imperfections and measurement errors in SCADA data.The methodology combines machine learning models,used to establish predictive relationships between environmental inputs and power output,with a Possibilistic Framework that represents uncertainty through possibility distribution functions based on fuzzy logic and interval analysis.A real-world case study using operational SCADA data demonstrates the approach,with XGBoost selected as the final predictive model due to its strong accuracy and computational efficiency.展开更多
Based on the interval mathematics and possibility theory, the variables existing in hydraulic turbine blade are described. Considering the multi-failure mode in turbine blade, multi-variable model is established to me...Based on the interval mathematics and possibility theory, the variables existing in hydraulic turbine blade are described. Considering the multi-failure mode in turbine blade, multi-variable model is established to meet the actual situation. Thus, non-probabilistic reliability index is presented by comparing with the output range and the given range.展开更多
In this article,mathematical modeling for the evaluation of reliability is studied using two methods.One of the methods,is developed based on possibility theory.The performance of the reliability of the system is of p...In this article,mathematical modeling for the evaluation of reliability is studied using two methods.One of the methods,is developed based on possibility theory.The performance of the reliability of the system is of prime concern.In view of this,the outcomes for the failure are required to evaluate with utmost care.In possibility theory,the reliability information data determined from decision-making experts are subjective.The samemethod is also related to the survival possibilities as against the survival probabilities.The other method is the one that is developed using the concept of approximation of closed interval including the piecewise quadratic fuzzy numbers.In this method,a decision-making expert is not sure of his/her estimates of the reliability parameters.Numerical experiments are performed to illustrate the efficiency of the suggested methods in this research.In the end,the paper is concluded with some future research directions to be explored for the proposed approach.展开更多
The influence of fuzzy uncertainty factors is considered on the analysis of chatter occurring during machine tool cutting process. Using fuzzy mathematics analysis methods, a detailed discussion over fuzzy stability a...The influence of fuzzy uncertainty factors is considered on the analysis of chatter occurring during machine tool cutting process. Using fuzzy mathematics analysis methods, a detailed discussion over fuzzy stability analysis problems is presented related to the mode coupling chatter with respect to intrinsic structure fuzzy factors, and the possibility distribution of the fuzzy stability cutting range and the confidence level expressions of the fuzzy stability cutting width are given.展开更多
A reasonable explanation is given for possibility distribution descriptor that defined by Hall and Kandel and used in target recognition. Based on this explanation, possibility distribution entropy is defined. Some pr...A reasonable explanation is given for possibility distribution descriptor that defined by Hall and Kandel and used in target recognition. Based on this explanation, possibility distribution entropy is defined. Some properties of possibility distribution entropy are discussed and a experiment for recognition of two fighters is shown.展开更多
文摘Wind turbines are continuously exposed to harsh environmental and operational conditions throughout their lifetime,leading to the gradual degradation of their components.If left unaddressed,these degraded components can adversely affect turbine performance and significantly increase the likelihood of failure.As degradation progresses,the risk of failure escalates,making it essential to implement appropriate risk control measures.One effective risk control method involves performing inspection and monitoring activities that provide valuable insights into the condition of the structure,enabling the formulation of appropriate maintenance strategies based on accurate assessments.Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition(SCADA)systems offer low-resolution condition monitoring data that can be used for fault detection,diagnosis,quantification,prognosis,and maintenance planning.One commonly used method involves predicting power generation using SCADA data and comparing it against measured power generation.Significant discrepancies between predicted and measured values can indicate suboptimal operation,natural aging,or unnatural faults.Various predictive models,including parametric and non-parametric(statistical)approaches,have been proposed for estimating power generation.However,the imperfect nature of these models introduces uncertainties in the predicted power output.Additionally,SCADA monitoring data is prone to uncertainties arising from various sources.The presence of uncertainties from these two sources-imperfect predictive models and imperfect SCADA data-introduces uncertainty in the predicted power generation.This uncertainty complicates the process of determining whether discrepancies between measured and predicted values are significant enough to warrant maintenance actions.Depending on the nature of uncertainty-aleatory,arising from inherent randomness,or epistemic,stemming from incomplete knowledge or limited data-different analytical approaches,like Probabilistic and Possibilistic,can be applied for effective management.Both,Probabilistic and Possibilistic,Approaches offer distinct advantages and limitations.The Possibilistic Approach,rooted in fuzzy set theory,is particularly well suited for addressing epistemic uncertainties,especially those caused by imprecision or sparse statistical information.This makes it especially relevant for applications such as wind turbines,where it is often challenging to construct accurate probability distribution functions for environmental parameters due to limited sensor data from hard-to-access locations.This research focuses on developing a methodology for identifying suboptimal operation in wind turbines by comparing Grid Produced Power(Measured Produced Power)with Predicted Produced Power.To achieve this,the paper introduces a Possibilistic Approach for power prediction that accounts for uncertainties stemming from both model imperfections and measurement errors in SCADA data.The methodology combines machine learning models,used to establish predictive relationships between environmental inputs and power output,with a Possibilistic Framework that represents uncertainty through possibility distribution functions based on fuzzy logic and interval analysis.A real-world case study using operational SCADA data demonstrates the approach,with XGBoost selected as the final predictive model due to its strong accuracy and computational efficiency.
基金the Key Scientific Research Fund Project of Xihua University(No.Z1320406)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51379179)
文摘Based on the interval mathematics and possibility theory, the variables existing in hydraulic turbine blade are described. Considering the multi-failure mode in turbine blade, multi-variable model is established to meet the actual situation. Thus, non-probabilistic reliability index is presented by comparing with the output range and the given range.
文摘In this article,mathematical modeling for the evaluation of reliability is studied using two methods.One of the methods,is developed based on possibility theory.The performance of the reliability of the system is of prime concern.In view of this,the outcomes for the failure are required to evaluate with utmost care.In possibility theory,the reliability information data determined from decision-making experts are subjective.The samemethod is also related to the survival possibilities as against the survival probabilities.The other method is the one that is developed using the concept of approximation of closed interval including the piecewise quadratic fuzzy numbers.In this method,a decision-making expert is not sure of his/her estimates of the reliability parameters.Numerical experiments are performed to illustrate the efficiency of the suggested methods in this research.In the end,the paper is concluded with some future research directions to be explored for the proposed approach.
文摘The influence of fuzzy uncertainty factors is considered on the analysis of chatter occurring during machine tool cutting process. Using fuzzy mathematics analysis methods, a detailed discussion over fuzzy stability analysis problems is presented related to the mode coupling chatter with respect to intrinsic structure fuzzy factors, and the possibility distribution of the fuzzy stability cutting range and the confidence level expressions of the fuzzy stability cutting width are given.
文摘A reasonable explanation is given for possibility distribution descriptor that defined by Hall and Kandel and used in target recognition. Based on this explanation, possibility distribution entropy is defined. Some properties of possibility distribution entropy are discussed and a experiment for recognition of two fighters is shown.
