An analytical solution is derived for the probability that a random pair of individuals from a panmictic population of size N will share ancestors who lived G generations previously. The analysis is extended to obtain...An analytical solution is derived for the probability that a random pair of individuals from a panmictic population of size N will share ancestors who lived G generations previously. The analysis is extended to obtain 1) the probability that a sample of size s will contain at least one pair of (G - 1)<sup>th</sup> cousins;and 2) the expected number of pairs of (G - 1)<sup>th</sup> cousins in that sample. Solutions are given for both monogamous and promiscuous (non-monogamous) cases. Simulation results for a population size of N = 20,000 closely approximate the analytical expectations. Simulation results also agree very well with previously derived expectations for the proportion of unrelated individuals in a sample. The analysis is broadly consistent with genetic estimates of relatedness among a sample of 406 Danish school children, but suggests that a different genetic study of a heterogenous sample of Europeans overestimates the frequency of cousin pairs by as much as one order of magnitude.展开更多
Background:Advances in artificial intelligence have enabled the simulation of human-like behaviors,raising the possibility of using large language models(LLMs)to generate synthetic population samples for research purp...Background:Advances in artificial intelligence have enabled the simulation of human-like behaviors,raising the possibility of using large language models(LLMs)to generate synthetic population samples for research purposes,which may be particularly useful in health and social sciences.Methods:This paper explores the potential of LLMs to simulate population samples mirroring real ones,as well as the feasibility of using personality questionnaires to assess the personality of LLMs.To advance in that direction,2 experiments were conducted with GPT-4o using the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire Revised-Abbreviated(EPQR-A)in 6 languages:Spanish,English,Slovak,Hebrew,Portuguese,and Turkish.Results:We find that GPT-4o exhibits distinct personality traits,which vary based on parameter settings and the language of the questionnaire.While the model shows promising trends in reflecting certain personality traits and differences across gender and academic fields,discrepancies between the synthetic populations’responses and those from real populations remain.Conclusions:These inconsistencies suggest that creating fully reliable synthetic population samples for questionnaire testing is still an open challenge.Further research is required to better align synthetic and real population behaviors.展开更多
A survey involving 6103 participants from five Chinese provinces was conducted to evaluate the threshold value of urinary cadmium （UCd） for renal dysfunction as benchmark dose low （BMDL）. The urinary N-acetyl-13-D...A survey involving 6103 participants from five Chinese provinces was conducted to evaluate the threshold value of urinary cadmium （UCd） for renal dysfunction as benchmark dose low （BMDL）. The urinary N-acetyl-13-D-glucosaminidase （UNAG） was chosen as an effect biomarker. The UCd BMDLs for UNAG ranged from 2.18μg/g creatinine （cr） to 4.26μg/g cr in the populations of different provinces. The selection of the sample population and area affect the evaluation of the BMDL. The reference level of UCd for renal effects was further evaluated based on the data of all 6103 subjects. With benchmark responses （BMR） of 10%/5%, the overall UCd BMDLs for males in the total population were 3.73/2.08 μg/g cr. The BMD was slightly lower in females, thereby indicating that females may be relatively more sensitive to Cd exposure than are males.展开更多
Sampling plays an important role in acquiring precise soil information required in modern agricultural production worldwide, which determines both the cost and quality of final soil mapping products. For sampling desi...Sampling plays an important role in acquiring precise soil information required in modern agricultural production worldwide, which determines both the cost and quality of final soil mapping products. For sampling design, it has been proposed possibile to transfer the relationships between kriging variance and sampling grid spacing from an area with existing information to other areas with similar soil-forming environments. However, this approach is challenged in practice because of two problems: i) different population vaxiograms among similar areas and ii) sampling errors in estimated variograms. This study evaluated the effects of these two problems on the transferability of the relationships between kriging variance and sampling grid spacing, by using spatial data simulated with three variograms and soil samples collected from four grasslands in Ireland with similar soil-forming environments. Results showed that the variograms suggested by different samples collected with the same grid spacing in the same or similar areas were different, leading to a range of mean kriging variance (MKV) for each grid spacing. With increasing grid spacing, the variation of MKV for a specific grid spacing increased and deviated more from the MKV generated using the population variograms. As a result, the spatial transferability of the relationships between kriging variance and grid spacing for sampling design was limited.展开更多
文摘An analytical solution is derived for the probability that a random pair of individuals from a panmictic population of size N will share ancestors who lived G generations previously. The analysis is extended to obtain 1) the probability that a sample of size s will contain at least one pair of (G - 1)<sup>th</sup> cousins;and 2) the expected number of pairs of (G - 1)<sup>th</sup> cousins in that sample. Solutions are given for both monogamous and promiscuous (non-monogamous) cases. Simulation results for a population size of N = 20,000 closely approximate the analytical expectations. Simulation results also agree very well with previously derived expectations for the proportion of unrelated individuals in a sample. The analysis is broadly consistent with genetic estimates of relatedness among a sample of 406 Danish school children, but suggests that a different genetic study of a heterogenous sample of Europeans overestimates the frequency of cousin pairs by as much as one order of magnitude.
文摘Background:Advances in artificial intelligence have enabled the simulation of human-like behaviors,raising the possibility of using large language models(LLMs)to generate synthetic population samples for research purposes,which may be particularly useful in health and social sciences.Methods:This paper explores the potential of LLMs to simulate population samples mirroring real ones,as well as the feasibility of using personality questionnaires to assess the personality of LLMs.To advance in that direction,2 experiments were conducted with GPT-4o using the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire Revised-Abbreviated(EPQR-A)in 6 languages:Spanish,English,Slovak,Hebrew,Portuguese,and Turkish.Results:We find that GPT-4o exhibits distinct personality traits,which vary based on parameter settings and the language of the questionnaire.While the model shows promising trends in reflecting certain personality traits and differences across gender and academic fields,discrepancies between the synthetic populations’responses and those from real populations remain.Conclusions:These inconsistencies suggest that creating fully reliable synthetic population samples for questionnaire testing is still an open challenge.Further research is required to better align synthetic and real population behaviors.
基金financially supported by Special Funds of the State Environmental Protection Public Welfare Industry(201009049201309049)+1 种基金National Key Technology Research and Development Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China(2013BAI12B03)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(2015JBM108)
文摘A survey involving 6103 participants from five Chinese provinces was conducted to evaluate the threshold value of urinary cadmium （UCd） for renal dysfunction as benchmark dose low （BMDL）. The urinary N-acetyl-13-D-glucosaminidase （UNAG） was chosen as an effect biomarker. The UCd BMDLs for UNAG ranged from 2.18μg/g creatinine （cr） to 4.26μg/g cr in the populations of different provinces. The selection of the sample population and area affect the evaluation of the BMDL. The reference level of UCd for renal effects was further evaluated based on the data of all 6103 subjects. With benchmark responses （BMR） of 10%/5%, the overall UCd BMDLs for males in the total population were 3.73/2.08 μg/g cr. The BMD was slightly lower in females, thereby indicating that females may be relatively more sensitive to Cd exposure than are males.
基金?nancially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 41541006 and 41771246)co-funded by Enterprise Ireland and the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) under the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF) 2007–2013
文摘Sampling plays an important role in acquiring precise soil information required in modern agricultural production worldwide, which determines both the cost and quality of final soil mapping products. For sampling design, it has been proposed possibile to transfer the relationships between kriging variance and sampling grid spacing from an area with existing information to other areas with similar soil-forming environments. However, this approach is challenged in practice because of two problems: i) different population vaxiograms among similar areas and ii) sampling errors in estimated variograms. This study evaluated the effects of these two problems on the transferability of the relationships between kriging variance and sampling grid spacing, by using spatial data simulated with three variograms and soil samples collected from four grasslands in Ireland with similar soil-forming environments. Results showed that the variograms suggested by different samples collected with the same grid spacing in the same or similar areas were different, leading to a range of mean kriging variance (MKV) for each grid spacing. With increasing grid spacing, the variation of MKV for a specific grid spacing increased and deviated more from the MKV generated using the population variograms. As a result, the spatial transferability of the relationships between kriging variance and grid spacing for sampling design was limited.
