This article introduces a new approach for stress-testing the resilience of critical infrastructures exposed or potentially exposed to adverse events,polycrises,or disasters.This approach focuses on extreme threats(x-...This article introduces a new approach for stress-testing the resilience of critical infrastructures exposed or potentially exposed to adverse events,polycrises,or disasters.This approach focuses on extreme threats(x-threats or XTs)and the functionality testing during such events.The methodology relies on resilience indicators,considering both the threat side and the asset side of adverse events.This enables simultaneous consideration of factors such as increased intensity,impact potential,complexity,systemic risks,and interconnectedness or cascading effects.The resilience of critical infrastructures is analyzed across phases of the resilience cycle:analysis of potential risk,preparation,absorption,recovery,and adaptation/transformation.The proposed stress-testing approach builds on the author’s previous work in EU projects and standards organizations(ISO-the International Organization for Standardization,DIN-German Institute for Standardization),incorporating recent developments like the EU regulations(the Critical Entities Resilience CER Directive)and the use of AI in resilience analysis.Specifically,it extends the stress-testing concept proposed in DIN SPEC 91461 and links it to applications for resilience assessment within EU projects and industry.展开更多
The world is increasingly confronted with overlapping,interconnected crises—termed polycrises—which mutually reinforce each other and cause damage far exceeding the sum of their parts.These interconnected crises are...The world is increasingly confronted with overlapping,interconnected crises—termed polycrises—which mutually reinforce each other and cause damage far exceeding the sum of their parts.These interconnected crises are often a product of systemic risks that challenge conventional,linear cause-effect models and demand new integrative,inter-and transdisciplinary approaches to risk analysis,governance,and communication.Understanding such crises requires a systemic view of natural,technological,social,and cultural dynamics,emphasizing interdependence,complexity,and inclusivity.展开更多
文摘This article introduces a new approach for stress-testing the resilience of critical infrastructures exposed or potentially exposed to adverse events,polycrises,or disasters.This approach focuses on extreme threats(x-threats or XTs)and the functionality testing during such events.The methodology relies on resilience indicators,considering both the threat side and the asset side of adverse events.This enables simultaneous consideration of factors such as increased intensity,impact potential,complexity,systemic risks,and interconnectedness or cascading effects.The resilience of critical infrastructures is analyzed across phases of the resilience cycle:analysis of potential risk,preparation,absorption,recovery,and adaptation/transformation.The proposed stress-testing approach builds on the author’s previous work in EU projects and standards organizations(ISO-the International Organization for Standardization,DIN-German Institute for Standardization),incorporating recent developments like the EU regulations(the Critical Entities Resilience CER Directive)and the use of AI in resilience analysis.Specifically,it extends the stress-testing concept proposed in DIN SPEC 91461 and links it to applications for resilience assessment within EU projects and industry.
文摘The world is increasingly confronted with overlapping,interconnected crises—termed polycrises—which mutually reinforce each other and cause damage far exceeding the sum of their parts.These interconnected crises are often a product of systemic risks that challenge conventional,linear cause-effect models and demand new integrative,inter-and transdisciplinary approaches to risk analysis,governance,and communication.Understanding such crises requires a systemic view of natural,technological,social,and cultural dynamics,emphasizing interdependence,complexity,and inclusivity.
