Logs and sawnwood play an important and fundamental role in the development of China's timber industry and are also China's major imports.This study explores the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on Ch...Logs and sawnwood play an important and fundamental role in the development of China's timber industry and are also China's major imports.This study explores the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on China's log and sawnwood trade by empirically analyzing the panel data of China's major trading partner countries with these two types of forest products from 2001 to 2022.The results show that the economic policy uncertainty of trading partner countries has a significant promotion effect on China's log and sawnwood trade,while China's economic policy has a significant negative effect on China's log and sawnwood trade.In terms of products,the impact of economic policy uncertainty in trading partner countries on China's sawnwood exports is significantly positive,while the impact on log exports is negative and insignificant.The per capita income of trading partner countries has a positive and significant impact on the trade of logs and sawnwood,while China's per capita income has a negative and significant impact on the trade of logs and sawnwood.The impact of real exchange rate on trade in sawnwood and total trade in logs and sawnwood is significantly positive,while the impact on trade in logs is positive but not significant.The per capita forest area ratio has a negative and significant effect on China's log imports,sawnwood imports and total imports of both logs and sawnwood.There are differences in the extent to which economic policy uncertainty affects China's trade in logs and sawnwood with developed and developing trading partners,with the overall effect on China's trade with developed trading partners being smaller than that with developing trading partners.展开更多
This paper examines how a change in health policy uncertainty affects US industry returns using monthly data from January 1985 to September 2020.We employ insample and out-of-sample analyses,and we find evidence that ...This paper examines how a change in health policy uncertainty affects US industry returns using monthly data from January 1985 to September 2020.We employ insample and out-of-sample analyses,and we find evidence that 25 out of 49 considered industries are predictable during the health crisis periods,including severe acute respiratory syndrome and the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.The out-of-sample tests corroborate the evidence for the in-sample predictability.Furthermore,using a mean–variance utility function-based trading strategy,we observe that investors can use this simple tool for their trading strategies and make profits from 2.99 to 11.44%per annum.Our findings are robust after accounting for different business cycles,macroeconomic factor effects,the fluctuation in economic policy uncertainty,and different pandemic phases.These results complement the existing literature on industry return predictability and have potential implications for asset pricing and risk management.展开更多
This study investigates the dynamic connectedness between stock indices and the effect of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)in eight countries where COVID-19 was most widespread(China,Italy,France,Germany,Spain,Russia,t...This study investigates the dynamic connectedness between stock indices and the effect of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)in eight countries where COVID-19 was most widespread(China,Italy,France,Germany,Spain,Russia,the US,and the UK)by implementing the time-varying VAR(TVP-VAR)model for daily data over the period spanning from 01/01/2015 to 05/18/2020.Results showed that stock markets were highly connected during the entire period,but the dynamic spillovers reached unprecedented heights during the COVID-19 pandemic in the first quarter of 2020.Moreover,we found that the European stock markets(except Italy)transmitted more spillovers to all other stock markets than they received,primarily during the COVID-19 outbreak.Further analysis using a nonlinear framework showed that the dynamic connectedness was more pronounced for negative than for positive returns.Also,findings showed that the direction of the EPU effect on net connectedness changed during the pandemic onset,indicating that information spillovers from a given market may signal either good or bad news for other markets,depending on the prevailing economic situation.These results have important implications for individual investors,portfolio managers,policymakers,investment banks,and central banks.展开更多
In this paper,we assess the role of investment in research and development(R&D)and economic policy uncertainty(EPU)in Sri Lanka’s economic growth experience.We do this by first determining which endogenous growth...In this paper,we assess the role of investment in research and development(R&D)and economic policy uncertainty(EPU)in Sri Lanka’s economic growth experience.We do this by first determining which endogenous growth theories best explain the evolution of total factor productivity(TFP)in the country.Using historical time series data(1980–2018),we find that semi-endogenous growth theories best explain the evolution of TFP in Sri Lanka.This evidence suggests that R&D is critical to the country’s TFP expansion.We find that,through R&D,EPU has a crucial detrimental impact on TFP growth,although it is short-lived.Our findings are robust and have important implications for R&D investment and for moderating EPU.展开更多
This study investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on the volatility of European Union(EU)carbon futures prices and whether it has predictive power for the volatility of carbon futures prices.The GA...This study investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on the volatility of European Union(EU)carbon futures prices and whether it has predictive power for the volatility of carbon futures prices.The GARCH-MIDAS model is applied for evaluating the impact of different EPU indexes on the price volatility of European Union Allowance(EUA)futures.We then compare the predictive power for the volatility of the two GARCH-MIDAS models based on different EPU indexes and six GARCH-type models.Our empirical results show that the GARCH-MIDAS models,which exhibit superior out-of-sample predictive ability,outperform GARCH-type models.The results also indicate that EPU has noticeable effect on the volatility of EUA futures.Specifically,the forecast accuracy of the EU EPU index is significantly higher than that of the global EPU index.Robustness checks further confirm that the EPU index(especially the EPU index of the EU)has strong predictive power for EUA futures prices.Additionally,using the volatility forecasting methods that GARCH-MIDAS models combine with the EPU index,investors can construct their portfolios to realize economic returns.展开更多
This paper investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on the crash risk of US stock market during the COVID-19 pandemic.To this end,we use the GARCHS(GARCH with skewness)model to estimate daily skewnes...This paper investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on the crash risk of US stock market during the COVID-19 pandemic.To this end,we use the GARCHS(GARCH with skewness)model to estimate daily skewness as a proxy for the stock market crash risk.The empirical results show the significantly negative correlation between EPU and stock market crash risk,indicating the aggravation of EPU increase the crash risk.Moreover,the negative correlation gets stronger after the global COVID-19 outbreak,which shows the crash risk of the US stock market will be more affected by EPU during the epidemic.展开更多
This paper investigates the effects of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)and monetary policy uncertainty(MPU)in the US and China on oil-stock and gold-stock correlations.A quantile regression approach is employed to ana...This paper investigates the effects of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)and monetary policy uncertainty(MPU)in the US and China on oil-stock and gold-stock correlations.A quantile regression approach is employed to analyze the heterogeneous impacts under different market correlation regimes.Our findings suggest that the“US impact”prevails across all market correlations in the sample,while“China impact”is found for oil-stock correlations.Furthermore,the impacts of EPU and MPU on correlations of different asset pairs exhibit heterogeneity in direction and in different correlation regimes.EPU and MPU have homogenously negative effects on gold-stock correlations across various correlation regimes.Differently,in terms of oil-stock correlations,they exhibit more significant and stronger positive impacts in the medium and high correlation regime than in the low correlation regime.Gold can provide a better diversification for stock market risks than crude oil during the period of high level of economic uncertainty.展开更多
This study examines the exchange rate pass-through to the United States(US)restaurant and hotel prices by incorporating the effect of monetary policy uncertainty over the period 2001:M12 to 2019:M01.Using the nonlinea...This study examines the exchange rate pass-through to the United States(US)restaurant and hotel prices by incorporating the effect of monetary policy uncertainty over the period 2001:M12 to 2019:M01.Using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag(NARDL)model,empirical evidence indicates asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty.Moreover,a stronger pass-through effect is observed during depreciation and a negative shock in monetary policy uncertainty,corroborating asymmetric pass-through predictions.Our results further show that a positive shock in energy prices leads to an increase in restaurant and hotel prices.Furthermore,asymmetric causality indicates that a positive shock in the exchange rate causes a positive shock to restaurant and hotel prices.We found feedback causal effects between positive and negative shocks in monetary policy uncertainty and positive and negative shocks in the exchange rate.Additionally,we detected a one-way asymmetric causality,flowing from a positive(negative)shock to a positive(negative)shock in energy prices.Therefore,these findings provide insights for policymakers to achieve low and stable prices in the US restaurant and hotel industry through sound monetary policy formulations.Highlights.The drivers of restaurant and hotel business in tourism destinations are examined.There is asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty.A stronger pass-through is observed during appreciation and a negative shock to monetary policy uncertainty.There is asymmetric causality from positive shock in exchange rate to postive shock in restaurant and hotel prices.展开更多
This paper investigates how economic policy uncertainty affects firms’frequency and their choice of financial instruments to raise capital.By applying a three-step sequential framework over a sample of 6834 publicly ...This paper investigates how economic policy uncertainty affects firms’frequency and their choice of financial instruments to raise capital.By applying a three-step sequential framework over a sample of 6834 publicly listed US non-financial firms,we find that during periods of high economic uncertainty,firms raise capital more frequently with a preference toward debt financing.The empirical findings suggest that firms prefer debt financing over equity financing to avoid ownership dilution and high equity premia.The rise in leverage during periods of high economic uncertainty highlights the importance of scrutinizing policy tools used to stabilize the economy during such times.展开更多
This study analyzes how economic policy uncertainty affects corporate innovation,and the moderating effects of executive heterogeneity.A threephase dynamic investment and financing model is first built to analyze the ...This study analyzes how economic policy uncertainty affects corporate innovation,and the moderating effects of executive heterogeneity.A threephase dynamic investment and financing model is first built to analyze the mechanism.Empirical analysis confirms that the increase in the degree of economic policy uncertainty promotes enterprise innovation.Further results show that this promotion effect is more significant in enterprises with male executives,low educational level,no financial experience and political background.Moreover,the positive impact is only found in enterprises with moderate executive ability,and the overconfidence of senior executives plays a positive regulating role in it.展开更多
Based on the household survey data of rural residents in 30 provinces(cities,districts)of China from 1995 to 2019,this paper constructs an econometric model of farmers’consumption behavior with habit formation and ec...Based on the household survey data of rural residents in 30 provinces(cities,districts)of China from 1995 to 2019,this paper constructs an econometric model of farmers’consumption behavior with habit formation and economic policy uncertainty,and makes an empirical analysis of farmers’consumption behavior by using sys-gmm estimation method.The results show that:since the reform and opening up,the changes of Chinese farmers’consumption behavior not only show excessive sensitivity to income changes on the whole,but also show a significant habit forming effect,and the existence of habit effect will reduce the impact of economic policy uncertainty on consumption;there is a large gap between regions,and the consumption in the western region is affected by the uncertainty of economic policy,the impact is greater.Therefore,the government should pay attention to the impact of economic shock on consumption,maintain the systematicness and stability of the policy,enhance the stability,continuity and accuracy of the policy,drive the development of the western region,build a long-term policy mechanism to promote the sustained and rapid increase of farmers’income,and further change farmers’consumption concept.展开更多
Objective To provide empirical enlightenment for pharmaceutical enterprises to fulfill their corporate social responsibility and improve their innovation performance.Methods The Poisson panel regression model was used...Objective To provide empirical enlightenment for pharmaceutical enterprises to fulfill their corporate social responsibility and improve their innovation performance.Methods The Poisson panel regression model was used to investigate the impact of corporate social responsibility on innovation performance and the moderating effect of economic policy uncertainty by taking the data of China’s pharmaceutical industry from 2010 to 2020.Results and Conclusion There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between corporate social responsibility and innovation performance,and economic policy uncertainty a negative moderating role in this relationship.In addition,there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between corporate social responsibility and innovation performance of stateowned enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises,but the threshold of state-owned enterprises is larger.展开更多
This study empirically examines the impact of climate policy uncertainty on bank systemic risk and the underlying mechanisms, using unbalanced panel data from 36 banks over 2008–2022. The results indicate that climat...This study empirically examines the impact of climate policy uncertainty on bank systemic risk and the underlying mechanisms, using unbalanced panel data from 36 banks over 2008–2022. The results indicate that climate policy uncertainty significantly reduces bank systemic risk. This effect operates through three key channels: increasing capital adequacy, reducing leverage, and decreasing lending to high-carbon industries. Furthermore, the risk-reducing impact of climate policy uncertainty is strengthened by greater carbon emission reductions. It is noteworthy that the effect of climate policy uncertainty on bank systemic risk follows a U-shaped pattern. The risk-reducing effect is particularly evident in larger, non-state-owned banks with strong profitability, effective risk management, and higher credit allocation to green sectors.展开更多
This study examines volatility spillovers among climate-policy-relevant sectors in the Chinese stock market across both time and frequency domains.It further explores the impact of climate policy uncertainty on the ri...This study examines volatility spillovers among climate-policy-relevant sectors in the Chinese stock market across both time and frequency domains.It further explores the impact of climate policy uncertainty on the risk spillover effect in the Chinese stock market and its underlying mechanisms.The results reveal strong risk spillovers among climate-policy-relevant sectors across both time and frequency scales and emphasise that these are primarily driven by short-term risk contagion in the lower frequency bands.Additionally,climate policy uncertainty significantly reduces the risk spillover effect among climate-policy-relevant sectors.Further analysis demonstrates that investors'risk perception and adjustments in investment strategies are key channels through which climate policy uncertainty affects sectoral volatility spillovers.Overall,this study high-lights the nonlinear and complex relationship between climate policy uncertainty and stock market spillovers,offering valuable practical insights for investors and policymakers.展开更多
By constructing an innovation decision-making model that includes economic policy uncertainty(EPU),this paper finds that EPU will have a negative impact on corporate innovation.Further analysis shows that it has asymm...By constructing an innovation decision-making model that includes economic policy uncertainty(EPU),this paper finds that EPU will have a negative impact on corporate innovation.Further analysis shows that it has asymmetric effects on long-term and short-term innovation decisions and puts forward two potential mechanisms of inhibitory effect in long-term:one is reducing follow-up investment,and the other is reducing marketization return.The empirical analysis verifies the inhibitory effect of EPU on corporate innovation and verifies two potential mechanisms.We further investigate the potential moderating effects:increased information transparency and of capital structure adjustment speed can mitigate the inhibition of EPU on corporate innovation.This study provides clear policy implication to ease the uncertainty of economic policy at the government level.展开更多
Using data for Chinese commercial banks from 2000 to 2014, this paper examines the effects of economic policy uncertainty(EPU) on banks' credit risks and lending decisions. The results reveal significantly positiv...Using data for Chinese commercial banks from 2000 to 2014, this paper examines the effects of economic policy uncertainty(EPU) on banks' credit risks and lending decisions. The results reveal significantly positive connections among EPU and non-performing loan ratios, loan concentrations and the normal loan migration rate. This indicates that EPU increases banks' credit risks and negatively influences loan size, especially for joint-equity banks. Given the increasing credit risks generated by EPU, banks can improve operational performance by reducing loan sizes. Further research indicates that the effects of EPU on banks' credit risks and lending decisions are moderated by the marketization level, with financial depth moderating the effect on banks' credit risks and strengthening it on lending decisions.展开更多
With the increase of economic environment uncertainty,it is of great importance to study the linkage and spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty among countries.Especially,this article selects eight countries...With the increase of economic environment uncertainty,it is of great importance to study the linkage and spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty among countries.Especially,this article selects eight countries along the Belt and Road as the core countries(China,Korea,Croatia,India,Russia,Greece,Pakistan,and Singapore)and four countries(Germany,France,Japan,and UK)as the peripheral countries,and then copula technique and mixed-frequency global vector autoregressive model are employed to analyze the correlation and the spillover effect of the economic policy uncertainty(EPU)for the twelve selected countries,respectively.The proposed empirical findings show clearly that the EPU correlation among the eight core Belt and Road countries is stronger and the spillover effect of the core countries to the peripheral countries is statistically significant.As a result,for harmonious and win-win development,the Belt and Road countries should pay a close attention to the EPU,because the stability of the EPU promotes greatly the economy development.展开更多
Environmental degradation is one of the most debatable topics at international forums and it is considered a prime concern for the entire world.Therefore,researchers and policymakers have turned their attention from c...Environmental degradation is one of the most debatable topics at international forums and it is considered a prime concern for the entire world.Therefore,researchers and policymakers have turned their attention from conventional economic growth to green growth.Although the existing literature has discussed several determinants of green growth,the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU),renewable energy consumption(RENE),and institutional quality(IQ)on green growth(GGDP)is relatively unexplored.Hence,this study is the earliest attempt to investigate the impact of EPU,IQ,and RENE on GGDP for emerging seven(E-7)countries from 1996 to 2019.In doing so,we apply panel quantile regression(PQR).The empirical findings delineate that EPU has a negative impact on GGDP,whereas IQ and RENE enhance the GGDP in E-7 countries.Based on the outcomes,this study suggests policy implications for achieving targets of the SDG 07,SDG 08,SDG 13,and SDG 16.The governments of these countries can achieve higher GGDP by ensuring political stability and reliable macroeconomic policies and through making such flexible policies that can easily control or address unpredictable future economic issues.展开更多
This paper examines whether economic uncertainty increases executive turnover.The negative perception perspective and business change theory suggest that executives are more likely to leave their jobs during periods o...This paper examines whether economic uncertainty increases executive turnover.The negative perception perspective and business change theory suggest that executives are more likely to leave their jobs during periods of corporate distress.However,the additive effects of internal and external risk are thought to prompt firms to carefully consider executive turnover,thereby reducing the likelihood of executive changes.Based on the literature,we propose a checkand-balance hypothesis for the relationship between external uncertainty and executive change,according to which the optimal superposition of the internal and external risks stemming from increased external uncertainty would be to avoid a wave of executive departures.Using a sample of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2019 and the China economic policy uncertainty index of Baker et al.(2013),we examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty on executive turnover and our results support the check-and-balance hypothesis.Our findings enhance our understanding of how economic policy uncertainty affects executive turnover,and enrich the literature on corporate risk management and strategic management.展开更多
In recent years,with the increasing attention paid to climate risks,the changes in climate policies are also more full of uncertainties,which have brought tremendous impact to economic entities,including companies.Usi...In recent years,with the increasing attention paid to climate risks,the changes in climate policies are also more full of uncertainties,which have brought tremendous impact to economic entities,including companies.Using the dynamic threshold model,this study investigates the nonlinear and the asymmetric effect of climate policy uncertainty on Chinese firm investment decisions with panel data of 128 Chinese energy-related companies from 2007 to 2019.The empirical findings indicate that the influence of climate policy uncertainty on firm investment is significantly nonlinear.Overall,climate policy uncertainty is not apparently related to corporate investments in the high-level range,while it negatively affects the investments in the low-level range.In addition,to be more specific,the negative impact of climate policy uncertainty on the mining industry is tremendous,while the influence on the production and supply of electricity,heat,gas,and water sector is remarkably positive.The results of this study could help the company managers and policymakers to arrange appropriate related strategies under different climate policy conditions.展开更多
文摘Logs and sawnwood play an important and fundamental role in the development of China's timber industry and are also China's major imports.This study explores the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on China's log and sawnwood trade by empirically analyzing the panel data of China's major trading partner countries with these two types of forest products from 2001 to 2022.The results show that the economic policy uncertainty of trading partner countries has a significant promotion effect on China's log and sawnwood trade,while China's economic policy has a significant negative effect on China's log and sawnwood trade.In terms of products,the impact of economic policy uncertainty in trading partner countries on China's sawnwood exports is significantly positive,while the impact on log exports is negative and insignificant.The per capita income of trading partner countries has a positive and significant impact on the trade of logs and sawnwood,while China's per capita income has a negative and significant impact on the trade of logs and sawnwood.The impact of real exchange rate on trade in sawnwood and total trade in logs and sawnwood is significantly positive,while the impact on trade in logs is positive but not significant.The per capita forest area ratio has a negative and significant effect on China's log imports,sawnwood imports and total imports of both logs and sawnwood.There are differences in the extent to which economic policy uncertainty affects China's trade in logs and sawnwood with developed and developing trading partners,with the overall effect on China's trade with developed trading partners being smaller than that with developing trading partners.
文摘This paper examines how a change in health policy uncertainty affects US industry returns using monthly data from January 1985 to September 2020.We employ insample and out-of-sample analyses,and we find evidence that 25 out of 49 considered industries are predictable during the health crisis periods,including severe acute respiratory syndrome and the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.The out-of-sample tests corroborate the evidence for the in-sample predictability.Furthermore,using a mean–variance utility function-based trading strategy,we observe that investors can use this simple tool for their trading strategies and make profits from 2.99 to 11.44%per annum.Our findings are robust after accounting for different business cycles,macroeconomic factor effects,the fluctuation in economic policy uncertainty,and different pandemic phases.These results complement the existing literature on industry return predictability and have potential implications for asset pricing and risk management.
文摘This study investigates the dynamic connectedness between stock indices and the effect of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)in eight countries where COVID-19 was most widespread(China,Italy,France,Germany,Spain,Russia,the US,and the UK)by implementing the time-varying VAR(TVP-VAR)model for daily data over the period spanning from 01/01/2015 to 05/18/2020.Results showed that stock markets were highly connected during the entire period,but the dynamic spillovers reached unprecedented heights during the COVID-19 pandemic in the first quarter of 2020.Moreover,we found that the European stock markets(except Italy)transmitted more spillovers to all other stock markets than they received,primarily during the COVID-19 outbreak.Further analysis using a nonlinear framework showed that the dynamic connectedness was more pronounced for negative than for positive returns.Also,findings showed that the direction of the EPU effect on net connectedness changed during the pandemic onset,indicating that information spillovers from a given market may signal either good or bad news for other markets,depending on the prevailing economic situation.These results have important implications for individual investors,portfolio managers,policymakers,investment banks,and central banks.
文摘In this paper,we assess the role of investment in research and development(R&D)and economic policy uncertainty(EPU)in Sri Lanka’s economic growth experience.We do this by first determining which endogenous growth theories best explain the evolution of total factor productivity(TFP)in the country.Using historical time series data(1980–2018),we find that semi-endogenous growth theories best explain the evolution of TFP in Sri Lanka.This evidence suggests that R&D is critical to the country’s TFP expansion.We find that,through R&D,EPU has a crucial detrimental impact on TFP growth,although it is short-lived.Our findings are robust and have important implications for R&D investment and for moderating EPU.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.71871030,72131011)the Open Fund Project of Key Research Institute of Philosophies and Social Sciences in Hunan University of China(No.20FEFMZ1).
文摘This study investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on the volatility of European Union(EU)carbon futures prices and whether it has predictive power for the volatility of carbon futures prices.The GARCH-MIDAS model is applied for evaluating the impact of different EPU indexes on the price volatility of European Union Allowance(EUA)futures.We then compare the predictive power for the volatility of the two GARCH-MIDAS models based on different EPU indexes and six GARCH-type models.Our empirical results show that the GARCH-MIDAS models,which exhibit superior out-of-sample predictive ability,outperform GARCH-type models.The results also indicate that EPU has noticeable effect on the volatility of EUA futures.Specifically,the forecast accuracy of the EU EPU index is significantly higher than that of the global EPU index.Robustness checks further confirm that the EPU index(especially the EPU index of the EU)has strong predictive power for EUA futures prices.Additionally,using the volatility forecasting methods that GARCH-MIDAS models combine with the EPU index,investors can construct their portfolios to realize economic returns.
基金This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71861008,72063005,U1811462,71532009)the Natural Science Foundation of Hainan Province(718QN221,2019RC151)the Scientific Research Foundation of Hainan University(kyqd(sk)1809,kyqd1634).
文摘This paper investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on the crash risk of US stock market during the COVID-19 pandemic.To this end,we use the GARCHS(GARCH with skewness)model to estimate daily skewness as a proxy for the stock market crash risk.The empirical results show the significantly negative correlation between EPU and stock market crash risk,indicating the aggravation of EPU increase the crash risk.Moreover,the negative correlation gets stronger after the global COVID-19 outbreak,which shows the crash risk of the US stock market will be more affected by EPU during the epidemic.
文摘This paper investigates the effects of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)and monetary policy uncertainty(MPU)in the US and China on oil-stock and gold-stock correlations.A quantile regression approach is employed to analyze the heterogeneous impacts under different market correlation regimes.Our findings suggest that the“US impact”prevails across all market correlations in the sample,while“China impact”is found for oil-stock correlations.Furthermore,the impacts of EPU and MPU on correlations of different asset pairs exhibit heterogeneity in direction and in different correlation regimes.EPU and MPU have homogenously negative effects on gold-stock correlations across various correlation regimes.Differently,in terms of oil-stock correlations,they exhibit more significant and stronger positive impacts in the medium and high correlation regime than in the low correlation regime.Gold can provide a better diversification for stock market risks than crude oil during the period of high level of economic uncertainty.
文摘This study examines the exchange rate pass-through to the United States(US)restaurant and hotel prices by incorporating the effect of monetary policy uncertainty over the period 2001:M12 to 2019:M01.Using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag(NARDL)model,empirical evidence indicates asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty.Moreover,a stronger pass-through effect is observed during depreciation and a negative shock in monetary policy uncertainty,corroborating asymmetric pass-through predictions.Our results further show that a positive shock in energy prices leads to an increase in restaurant and hotel prices.Furthermore,asymmetric causality indicates that a positive shock in the exchange rate causes a positive shock to restaurant and hotel prices.We found feedback causal effects between positive and negative shocks in monetary policy uncertainty and positive and negative shocks in the exchange rate.Additionally,we detected a one-way asymmetric causality,flowing from a positive(negative)shock to a positive(negative)shock in energy prices.Therefore,these findings provide insights for policymakers to achieve low and stable prices in the US restaurant and hotel industry through sound monetary policy formulations.Highlights.The drivers of restaurant and hotel business in tourism destinations are examined.There is asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty.A stronger pass-through is observed during appreciation and a negative shock to monetary policy uncertainty.There is asymmetric causality from positive shock in exchange rate to postive shock in restaurant and hotel prices.
文摘This paper investigates how economic policy uncertainty affects firms’frequency and their choice of financial instruments to raise capital.By applying a three-step sequential framework over a sample of 6834 publicly listed US non-financial firms,we find that during periods of high economic uncertainty,firms raise capital more frequently with a preference toward debt financing.The empirical findings suggest that firms prefer debt financing over equity financing to avoid ownership dilution and high equity premia.The rise in leverage during periods of high economic uncertainty highlights the importance of scrutinizing policy tools used to stabilize the economy during such times.
基金the support of Humanities and Social Sciences Foundation of the Ministry of Education"Research on policy uncertainty,non-financial enterprises’shadow banking activities and its economic effects"(20YJC790040)School Level Special Research Project of Beijing International Studies University(KYZX20A008).
文摘This study analyzes how economic policy uncertainty affects corporate innovation,and the moderating effects of executive heterogeneity.A threephase dynamic investment and financing model is first built to analyze the mechanism.Empirical analysis confirms that the increase in the degree of economic policy uncertainty promotes enterprise innovation.Further results show that this promotion effect is more significant in enterprises with male executives,low educational level,no financial experience and political background.Moreover,the positive impact is only found in enterprises with moderate executive ability,and the overconfidence of senior executives plays a positive regulating role in it.
基金This paper is the result of Yangzhou University Science and innovation fund(Project No.:x20200820).
文摘Based on the household survey data of rural residents in 30 provinces(cities,districts)of China from 1995 to 2019,this paper constructs an econometric model of farmers’consumption behavior with habit formation and economic policy uncertainty,and makes an empirical analysis of farmers’consumption behavior by using sys-gmm estimation method.The results show that:since the reform and opening up,the changes of Chinese farmers’consumption behavior not only show excessive sensitivity to income changes on the whole,but also show a significant habit forming effect,and the existence of habit effect will reduce the impact of economic policy uncertainty on consumption;there is a large gap between regions,and the consumption in the western region is affected by the uncertainty of economic policy,the impact is greater.Therefore,the government should pay attention to the impact of economic shock on consumption,maintain the systematicness and stability of the policy,enhance the stability,continuity and accuracy of the policy,drive the development of the western region,build a long-term policy mechanism to promote the sustained and rapid increase of farmers’income,and further change farmers’consumption concept.
基金supported by 2023 Shenyang Social Science Project(SYSK2023-01-196).
文摘Objective To provide empirical enlightenment for pharmaceutical enterprises to fulfill their corporate social responsibility and improve their innovation performance.Methods The Poisson panel regression model was used to investigate the impact of corporate social responsibility on innovation performance and the moderating effect of economic policy uncertainty by taking the data of China’s pharmaceutical industry from 2010 to 2020.Results and Conclusion There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between corporate social responsibility and innovation performance,and economic policy uncertainty a negative moderating role in this relationship.In addition,there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between corporate social responsibility and innovation performance of stateowned enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises,but the threshold of state-owned enterprises is larger.
基金Supported by Major Projects of Philosophy and Social Science Research in Colleges and Universities of Jiangsu Province(2023SJZD023)General Program of Social Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(23GLB009)+1 种基金National Cultural Excellence Cultivation Project Special Funding Program(2021QNYC209)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(2242025S30013)。
文摘This study empirically examines the impact of climate policy uncertainty on bank systemic risk and the underlying mechanisms, using unbalanced panel data from 36 banks over 2008–2022. The results indicate that climate policy uncertainty significantly reduces bank systemic risk. This effect operates through three key channels: increasing capital adequacy, reducing leverage, and decreasing lending to high-carbon industries. Furthermore, the risk-reducing impact of climate policy uncertainty is strengthened by greater carbon emission reductions. It is noteworthy that the effect of climate policy uncertainty on bank systemic risk follows a U-shaped pattern. The risk-reducing effect is particularly evident in larger, non-state-owned banks with strong profitability, effective risk management, and higher credit allocation to green sectors.
基金support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.72203092,72403266)the Major Project of Philosophy and Social Science Research of Colleges and Universities in Jiangsu Province(Project No.2024SJZD051)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.NR2024003,NR2024008).
文摘This study examines volatility spillovers among climate-policy-relevant sectors in the Chinese stock market across both time and frequency domains.It further explores the impact of climate policy uncertainty on the risk spillover effect in the Chinese stock market and its underlying mechanisms.The results reveal strong risk spillovers among climate-policy-relevant sectors across both time and frequency scales and emphasise that these are primarily driven by short-term risk contagion in the lower frequency bands.Additionally,climate policy uncertainty significantly reduces the risk spillover effect among climate-policy-relevant sectors.Further analysis demonstrates that investors'risk perception and adjustments in investment strategies are key channels through which climate policy uncertainty affects sectoral volatility spillovers.Overall,this study high-lights the nonlinear and complex relationship between climate policy uncertainty and stock market spillovers,offering valuable practical insights for investors and policymakers.
文摘By constructing an innovation decision-making model that includes economic policy uncertainty(EPU),this paper finds that EPU will have a negative impact on corporate innovation.Further analysis shows that it has asymmetric effects on long-term and short-term innovation decisions and puts forward two potential mechanisms of inhibitory effect in long-term:one is reducing follow-up investment,and the other is reducing marketization return.The empirical analysis verifies the inhibitory effect of EPU on corporate innovation and verifies two potential mechanisms.We further investigate the potential moderating effects:increased information transparency and of capital structure adjustment speed can mitigate the inhibition of EPU on corporate innovation.This study provides clear policy implication to ease the uncertainty of economic policy at the government level.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Project Nos.71032006 and 71372167)
文摘Using data for Chinese commercial banks from 2000 to 2014, this paper examines the effects of economic policy uncertainty(EPU) on banks' credit risks and lending decisions. The results reveal significantly positive connections among EPU and non-performing loan ratios, loan concentrations and the normal loan migration rate. This indicates that EPU increases banks' credit risks and negatively influences loan size, especially for joint-equity banks. Given the increasing credit risks generated by EPU, banks can improve operational performance by reducing loan sizes. Further research indicates that the effects of EPU on banks' credit risks and lending decisions are moderated by the marketization level, with financial depth moderating the effect on banks' credit risks and strengthening it on lending decisions.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 71631004,72033008the Humanity and Social Science Foundation of Ministry of Education of China under Grant No.18YJA790101
文摘With the increase of economic environment uncertainty,it is of great importance to study the linkage and spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty among countries.Especially,this article selects eight countries along the Belt and Road as the core countries(China,Korea,Croatia,India,Russia,Greece,Pakistan,and Singapore)and four countries(Germany,France,Japan,and UK)as the peripheral countries,and then copula technique and mixed-frequency global vector autoregressive model are employed to analyze the correlation and the spillover effect of the economic policy uncertainty(EPU)for the twelve selected countries,respectively.The proposed empirical findings show clearly that the EPU correlation among the eight core Belt and Road countries is stronger and the spillover effect of the core countries to the peripheral countries is statistically significant.As a result,for harmonious and win-win development,the Belt and Road countries should pay a close attention to the EPU,because the stability of the EPU promotes greatly the economy development.
基金supported by Chengdu University of Technology “Double First-Class”initiative Construction Philosophy and Social Sciences Key Construction Project “Research on the Forming Mechanism of Laborers’Democratic Participation in Digital Platform under Algorithm Control”(Project No.:ZDJS202210)the Philosophy and Social Science Research Fund of Chengdu University of Technology“Research on the Guarantee Mechanism of Workers’Right to Speak in the New Business under the People’s Democracy in the Whole Process”(Project No.:YJ2022-YB022)the views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not represent the foundations.
文摘Environmental degradation is one of the most debatable topics at international forums and it is considered a prime concern for the entire world.Therefore,researchers and policymakers have turned their attention from conventional economic growth to green growth.Although the existing literature has discussed several determinants of green growth,the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU),renewable energy consumption(RENE),and institutional quality(IQ)on green growth(GGDP)is relatively unexplored.Hence,this study is the earliest attempt to investigate the impact of EPU,IQ,and RENE on GGDP for emerging seven(E-7)countries from 1996 to 2019.In doing so,we apply panel quantile regression(PQR).The empirical findings delineate that EPU has a negative impact on GGDP,whereas IQ and RENE enhance the GGDP in E-7 countries.Based on the outcomes,this study suggests policy implications for achieving targets of the SDG 07,SDG 08,SDG 13,and SDG 16.The governments of these countries can achieve higher GGDP by ensuring political stability and reliable macroeconomic policies and through making such flexible policies that can easily control or address unpredictable future economic issues.
基金The project funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China:a study on the timing of stock repurchase of Chinese listed companies:theory,demonstration and policy(No.71373162)
文摘This paper examines whether economic uncertainty increases executive turnover.The negative perception perspective and business change theory suggest that executives are more likely to leave their jobs during periods of corporate distress.However,the additive effects of internal and external risk are thought to prompt firms to carefully consider executive turnover,thereby reducing the likelihood of executive changes.Based on the literature,we propose a checkand-balance hypothesis for the relationship between external uncertainty and executive change,according to which the optimal superposition of the internal and external risks stemming from increased external uncertainty would be to avoid a wave of executive departures.Using a sample of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2019 and the China economic policy uncertainty index of Baker et al.(2013),we examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty on executive turnover and our results support the check-and-balance hypothesis.Our findings enhance our understanding of how economic policy uncertainty affects executive turnover,and enrich the literature on corporate risk management and strategic management.
文摘In recent years,with the increasing attention paid to climate risks,the changes in climate policies are also more full of uncertainties,which have brought tremendous impact to economic entities,including companies.Using the dynamic threshold model,this study investigates the nonlinear and the asymmetric effect of climate policy uncertainty on Chinese firm investment decisions with panel data of 128 Chinese energy-related companies from 2007 to 2019.The empirical findings indicate that the influence of climate policy uncertainty on firm investment is significantly nonlinear.Overall,climate policy uncertainty is not apparently related to corporate investments in the high-level range,while it negatively affects the investments in the low-level range.In addition,to be more specific,the negative impact of climate policy uncertainty on the mining industry is tremendous,while the influence on the production and supply of electricity,heat,gas,and water sector is remarkably positive.The results of this study could help the company managers and policymakers to arrange appropriate related strategies under different climate policy conditions.
