Deep learning(DL)has proven to be important for computed tomography(CT)image denoising.However,such models are usually trained under supervision,requiring paired data that may be difficult to obtain in practice.Diffus...Deep learning(DL)has proven to be important for computed tomography(CT)image denoising.However,such models are usually trained under supervision,requiring paired data that may be difficult to obtain in practice.Diffusion models offer unsupervised means of solving a wide range of inverse problems via posterior sampling.In particular,using the estimated unconditional score function of the prior distribution,obtained via unsupervised learning,one can sample from the desired posterior via hijacking and regularization.However,due to the iterative solvers used,the number of function evaluations(NFE)required may be orders of magnitudes larger than for single-step samplers.In this paper,we present a novel image denoising technique for photon-counting CT by extending the unsupervised approach to inverse problem solving to the case of Poisson flow generative models(PFGM)++.By hijacking and regularizing the sampling process we obtain a single-step sampler,that is NFE=1.Our proposed method incorporates posterior sampling using diffusion models as a special case.We demonstrate that the added robustness afforded by the PFGM++framework yields significant performance gains.Our results indicate competitive performance compared to popular supervised,including state-of-the-art diffusion-style models with NFE=1(consistency models),unsupervised,and non-DL-based image denoising techniques,on clinical low-dose CT data and clinical images from a prototype photon-counting CT system developed by GE HealthCare.展开更多
In this paper, we consider a compound Poisson risk model with taxes paid according to a loss-carry-forward system and dividends paid under a threshold strategy. First, the closed-form expression of the probability fun...In this paper, we consider a compound Poisson risk model with taxes paid according to a loss-carry-forward system and dividends paid under a threshold strategy. First, the closed-form expression of the probability function for the total number of taxation periods over the lifetime of the surplus process is derived. Second, analytical expression of the expected accumulated discounted dividends paid between two consecutive taxation periods is provided. In addition, explicit expressions are also given for the exponential individual claims.展开更多
In this work, some non-homogeneous Poisson models are considered to study the behaviour of ozone in the city of Puebla, Mexico. Several functions are used as the rate function for the non-homogeneous Poisson process. ...In this work, some non-homogeneous Poisson models are considered to study the behaviour of ozone in the city of Puebla, Mexico. Several functions are used as the rate function for the non-homogeneous Poisson process. In addition to their dependence on time, these rate functions also depend on some parameters that need to be estimated. In order to estimate them, a Bayesian approach will be taken. The expressions for the distributions of the parameters involved in the models are very complex. Therefore, Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms are used to estimate them. The methodology is applied to the ozone data from the city of Puebla, Mexico.展开更多
Stop frequency models, as one of the elements of activity based models, represent an important part of travel behavior. Unobserved heterogeneity across the travelers should be taken into consideration to prevent biase...Stop frequency models, as one of the elements of activity based models, represent an important part of travel behavior. Unobserved heterogeneity across the travelers should be taken into consideration to prevent biasedness and inconsistency in the estimated parameters in the stop frequency models. Additionally, previous studies on the stop frequency have mostly been done in larger metropolitan areas and less attention has been paid to the areas with less population. This study addresses these gaps by using 2012 travel data from a medium sized U.S. urban area using the work tour for the case study. Stop in the work tour were classified into three groups of outbound leg, work based subtour, and inbound leg of the commutes. Latent Class Poisson Regression Models were used to analyze the data. The results indicate the presence of heterogeneity across the commuters. Using latent class models significantly improves the predictive power of the models compared to regular one class Poisson regression models. In contrast to one class Poisson models, gender becomes insignificant in predicting the number of tours when unobserved heterogeneity is accounted for. The commuters are associated with increased stops on their work based subtour when the employment density of service-related occupations increases in their work zone, but employment density of retail employment does not significantly contribute to the stop making likelihood of the commuters. Additionally, an increase in the number of work tours was associated with fewer stops on the inbound leg of the commute. The results of this study suggest the consideration of unobserved heterogeneity in the stop frequency models and help transportation agencies and policy makers make better inferences from such models.展开更多
The present paper proposes a new robust estimator for Poisson regression models. We used the weighted maximum likelihood estimators which are regarded as Mallows-type estimators. We perform a Monte Carlo simulation st...The present paper proposes a new robust estimator for Poisson regression models. We used the weighted maximum likelihood estimators which are regarded as Mallows-type estimators. We perform a Monte Carlo simulation study to assess the performance of a suggested estimator compared to the maximum likelihood estimator and some robust methods. The result shows that, in general, all robust methods in this paper perform better than the classical maximum likelihood estimators when the model contains outliers. The proposed estimators showed the best performance compared to other robust estimators.展开更多
We consider some non-homogeneous Poisson models to estimate the mean number of times that a given environmental threshold of interest is surpassed by a given pollutant. Seven different rate functions for the Poisson p...We consider some non-homogeneous Poisson models to estimate the mean number of times that a given environmental threshold of interest is surpassed by a given pollutant. Seven different rate functions for the Poisson processes describing the models are taken into account. The rate functions considered are the Weibull, exponentiated-Weibull, and their generalisation the Beta-Weibull rate function. We also use the Musa-Okumoto, the Goel-Okumoto, a generalised Goel- Okumoto and the Weibull-geometric rate functions. Whenever thought justifiable, the model allowing the presence of change-points is also going to be considered. The different models are applied to the daily maximum ozone measurements data provided by the monitoring network of the Metropolitan Area of Mexico City. The aim is to compare the adjustment of different rate functions to the data. Even though, some of the rate functions have been considered before, now we are applying them to the same data set. In previous works they were used in different data sets and therefore a comparison of the adequacy of those models were not possible. The measurements considered here were obtained after a series of environmental measures were implemented in Mexico City. Hence, the data present a different behaviour from that of earlier studies.展开更多
This study uses logistic and Poisson regression models to examine the factors influencing the adoption of sustain-able land management(SLM)practices in Mali using two rounds of the nationally representative survey Enq...This study uses logistic and Poisson regression models to examine the factors influencing the adoption of sustain-able land management(SLM)practices in Mali using two rounds of the nationally representative survey Enquête Agricole de Conjoncture Intégrée aux Conditions de Vie des Ménages.The SLMs considered include the applica-tion of organic fertilizers,the application of inorganic fertilizers,the use of improved seeds,and the practice of intercropping.On average the application of organic fertilizers(39.2%),and inorganic fertilizers(28.7%)are the most frequent SLM practices among Malian farmers,and between 2014 and 2017,we observe a decline in the practice of intercropping.The regression results show that farmers’adoption of different SLMs is significantly associated with biophysical factors(average temperature,climate type,plot size,plot shape,and location),de-mographic factors(age,gender,education,household size),and socioeconomic factors(number of cultivated plots,livelihood diversification,type of crop grown,market access,credit access,economic shocks,and social capital).Our findings suggest that policymakers and agricultural development agencies in Mali need to adopt a multidimensional policy framework to unlock the untapped potential of SLM practices in promoting sustainable agriculture and food security.展开更多
Objective Our objective is to build a model that explains the association between the exposure to trace elements in the soil and the risk of neural tube defects. Methods We built a function with different parameters t...Objective Our objective is to build a model that explains the association between the exposure to trace elements in the soil and the risk of neural tube defects. Methods We built a function with different parameters to describe the effects of trace elements on neural tube defects. The association between neural tube defects and trace element levels was transformed into an optimization problem using the maximum likelihood method. Results Tin, lead, nickel, iron, copper, and aluminum had typical layered effects （dosage effects） on the prevalence of neural tube defects. Arsenic, selenium, zinc, strontium, and vanadium had no effect, and molybdenum had one threshold value that affected the prevalence of birth defects. Conclusion As an exploratory research work, our model can be used to determine the direction of the effect of the trace element content of cultivated soil on the risk of neural tube defects, which shows the clues by the dosage effect of their toxicological characteristics. Based on our findings, future biogeochemical research should focus on the direct effects of trace elements on human health.展开更多
The stress release model is a stochastic point process model developed from the theory of elastic rebound. It can be used to analyse, simulate or predict the seismicity in a certain seismic region. This paper first gi...The stress release model is a stochastic point process model developed from the theory of elastic rebound. It can be used to analyse, simulate or predict the seismicity in a certain seismic region. This paper first gives a brief representation of the theory of the stress release model and the method of how to use it to analyse earthquake data, then this model is to fit the earthquake data in North China, Southwest China and Taiwan. The results show that the stress release model fits to the data better than the Poisson model. The different features of stress accumulation and release in these regions imply that the seismic activity is essentially different among these regions.展开更多
We consider a continuous time risk model based on a two state Markov process, in which after an exponentially distributed time, the claim frequency changes to a different level and can change back again in the same wa...We consider a continuous time risk model based on a two state Markov process, in which after an exponentially distributed time, the claim frequency changes to a different level and can change back again in the same way. We derive the Laplace transform for the first passage time to surplus zero from a given negative surplus and for the duration of negative surplus. Closed-form expressions are given in the case of exponential individual claim. Finally, numerical results are provided to show how to estimate the moments of duration of negative surplus.展开更多
Abstract Dike failure and marine losses are quite prominent in Laizhou Bay during the period of cold wave storm surges because of its open coastline to the north and fiat topography. In order to evaluate the intensity...Abstract Dike failure and marine losses are quite prominent in Laizhou Bay during the period of cold wave storm surges because of its open coastline to the north and fiat topography. In order to evaluate the intensity of c01d wave storm surge, the hindcast of ma- rine elements induced by cold waves in Laizhou Bay from 1985 to 2004 is conducted using a cold wave storm surge-wave coupled model and the joint return period of extreme water level, concomitant wave height, and concomitant wind speed are calculated. A new criterion of cold wave storm surge intensity based on such studies is developed. Considering the frequency of cold wave, this paper introduces a Poisson trivariate compound reconstruction model to calculate the joint return period, which is closer to the reality. By using the newly defined cold wave storm surge intensity, the ＇cold wave grade＇ in meteorology can better describe the severity of cold wave storm surges and the warning level is well corresponding to different intensities of cold wave storm surges. Therefore, it provides a proper guidance to marine hydrological analysis, disaster prevention and marine structure design in Laizhou Bay.展开更多
In this paper, the absolute ruin in the compound Poisson risk model with interest and a constant dividend barrier is investigated. First, integro-differential equations satisfied by the expected discounted dividend pa...In this paper, the absolute ruin in the compound Poisson risk model with interest and a constant dividend barrier is investigated. First, integro-differential equations satisfied by the expected discounted dividend payments are derived. The explicit expressions are obtained when the individual claim size is exponential distributed. Second, the moment generating function of the discounted dividends is considered, and integro-differential equations satisfied by the moment generating function of the discounted dividends are derived. Third, by a ＂differential＂ argument, the time to recovery to zero from a given negative surplus is considered. Finally, how long it takes for the surplus process to reach the dividend barrier is discussed.展开更多
In this paper, we study a class of ruin problems, in which premiums and claims are dependent. Under the assumption that premium income is a stochastic process, we raise the model that premiums and claims are dependent...In this paper, we study a class of ruin problems, in which premiums and claims are dependent. Under the assumption that premium income is a stochastic process, we raise the model that premiums and claims are dependent, give its numerical characteristics and the ruin probability of the individual risk model in the surplus process. In addition, we promote the number of insurance policies to a Poisson process with parameter λ, using martingale methods to obtain the upper bound of the ultimate ruin probability.展开更多
The distribution probability of the photon interarrival time （PIT） without signal initial phases is derived based on the Poisson model of X-ray pulsar signals, and a pulsar signal detection algorithm employing the P...The distribution probability of the photon interarrival time （PIT） without signal initial phases is derived based on the Poisson model of X-ray pulsar signals, and a pulsar signal detection algorithm employing the PIT sequence is put forward. The joint probability of the PIT sequence is regarded as a function of the distribution probability and used to compare a constant radiation intensity model with the nonhomogeneous Poisson model for the signal detection. The relationship between the number of detected photons and the probabilities of false negative and positive is studied, and the success rate and mean detection time are estimated based on the number of the given photons. For the spacecraft velocity data detection, the changes of time of photon arrival （TOPA） and PIT caused by spacecraft motion are presented first, then the influences on detection are analyzed respectively. By using the analytical pulse profile of PSR B0531＋21, the simulation of the Xray pulsar signal detection is implemented. The simulation results verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, and the contrast tests show that the proposed method is suitable for the spacecraft velocity data detection.展开更多
Stress release model used to be applied to seismicity study of large historical earthquakes in a space of large scale. In this paper, we improve the stress release model, and discuss whether the stress release model i...Stress release model used to be applied to seismicity study of large historical earthquakes in a space of large scale. In this paper, we improve the stress release model, and discuss whether the stress release model is still applicable or not in the case of smaller spatio-temporal scale and weaker earthquakes. As an example of testing the model, we have analyzed the M greater than or equal 6 earthquakes in recent about 100 years. The result shows that the stress release model is still applicable. The earthquake conditional probability intensity in Taiwan Region is calculated with the improved stress release model. We see that accuracy of earthquake occurrence time predicted by the improved stress release model is higher than that by Poisson model in the test of retrospect earthquake prediction.展开更多
In this paper we consider the Markov-dependent risk model with tax payments in which the claim occurrence, the claim amount as well as the tax rate are controlled by an irreducible discrete-time Markov chain. Systems ...In this paper we consider the Markov-dependent risk model with tax payments in which the claim occurrence, the claim amount as well as the tax rate are controlled by an irreducible discrete-time Markov chain. Systems of integro-differential equations satisfied by the expected discounted tax payments and the non-ruin probability in terms of the ruin probabilities under the Markov-dependent risk model without tax are established. The analytical solutions of the systems of integro-differential equations are also obtained by the iteration method.展开更多
The commonly used Poisson rectangular pulse(PRP)model,employed for simulating high-resolution residential water consumption patterns(RWCPs),relies on calibration via medium-resolution RWCPs obtained from practical mea...The commonly used Poisson rectangular pulse(PRP)model,employed for simulating high-resolution residential water consumption patterns(RWCPs),relies on calibration via medium-resolution RWCPs obtained from practical measurements.This introduces inevitable uncertainty stemming from the measured RWCPs,which consequently impacts the precision of model simulations.Here we enhance the accuracy of the PRP model by addressing the uncertainty of RWCPs.We established a critical sampling size of 2000 household water consumption patterns(HWCPs)with a data logging interval(DLI)of 15 min to attain dependable RWCPs.Through Genetic Algorithm calibration,the optimal values of the PRP model's parameters were determined:pulse frequency lλ=91 d^(-1),mean of pulse intensity E(I)=0.346 m^(3) h^(-1),standard deviation of pulse intensity STD(I)=0.292 m^(3) h^(-1),mean of pulse duration E(D)=40 s,and standard deviation of pulse duration STD(D)=55 s.Furthermore,validation was conducted at both HWCP and RWCP levels.We recommend a sampling size of2000 HWCPs and a DLI of30 min for PRP model calibration to balance simulation precision and practical implementation.This study significantly advances the theoretical foundation and real-world application of the PRP model,enhancing its role in urban water supply system management.展开更多
The European Union （EU） Wild Birds Directive recognises that the most serious threats to wild birds＇ conservation in Europe are habitat loss and degradation, and hence, habitats of threatened and migratory species ...The European Union （EU） Wild Birds Directive recognises that the most serious threats to wild birds＇ conservation in Europe are habitat loss and degradation, and hence, habitats of threatened and migratory species must be protected with the establishment of the network of the special protection areas （SPAs） for migratory and endangered bird species in the EU member states. The major European population of the lesser kestrel Falco naumanni, a migratory falcon listed in Annex I of the Birds Directive, occurs in low-input farming systems in the Mediterranean basin, including Greece. The aim of this study was to identify foraging habitats of lesser kestrels and relate them to the delimited SPAs in the agro-ecosystems of Greece, where the stronghold of the species population for Greece occurs. Foraging habitat preferences were assessed using Poisson regression models （PRMs）. SPAs were examined on whether they can effectively protect foraging habitats for breeding lesser kestrels in the study area. Foraging lesser kestrel abundance was positively associated with grasslands and non-irrigated land （dry cereals）, and negatively associated with irrigated land （wet cotton）, scrubland and woodland. Electricity facilities were used as foraging perches by lesser kestrels. The current SPAs cover a small percentage of the species＇ foraging sites and cannot be considered coherent enough to support and protect the foraging habitats of lesser kestrels and other priority species in the agro-ecosystems of the study area. Proposals for effective conservation of low-input farming systems, supporting priority species, are also presented.展开更多
Based on the calculation method of information gain in the stochastic process presented by Vere-Jones, the rela tion between information gain and probability gain is studied, which is very common in earthquake predict...Based on the calculation method of information gain in the stochastic process presented by Vere-Jones, the rela tion between information gain and probability gain is studied, which is very common in earthquake prediction, and the yearly probability gain for seismic statistical model is proposed. The method is applied to the non stationary Poisson model with whole-process exponential increase and stress release model. In addition, the prediction method of stress release model is obtained based on the inverse function simulation method of stochastic variable.展开更多
Analysis of diarrhoea data in Malawi has been commonly done using classical methods. However, different approaches, such as Bayesian methods, have been introduced in literature. This study aimed at trying out semi-par...Analysis of diarrhoea data in Malawi has been commonly done using classical methods. However, different approaches, such as Bayesian methods, have been introduced in literature. This study aimed at trying out semi-parametric methods in comparison with classical ones, as well as how each isolates risk factors for child diarrhoea. This was done by fitting Logit, Poisson, and Bayesian models to 2006 Malawi Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey data. The comparison between Logit and Poisson models was done via chi-square＇s goodness-of-fit test. Confidence and Credible Intervals were used to compare Logit/Poisson and Bayesian model estimates. Modelling and inference in Bayesian method was done through MCMC techniques. The results showed agreement in significance and direction of estimates from Bayesian and Poisson/Logit models, but Poisson provided better fit than Logit model. Further, all the models identified child＇s age, breastfeeding status, region of stay and toilet-sharing status as significant factors for determining the child＇s risk. The models ruled out effects of mother＇s education, area of residence, and source of drinking water on the risk. Bayesian model separately proved significant closeness to lake/river factor. The findings imply that classical and semi-parametric models are equally helpful when estimating the child＇s risk to diarrhoea.展开更多
基金supported by MedTechLabs,GE HealthCare,the Swedish Research council,No.2021-05103the Göran Gustafsson foundation,No.2114.
文摘Deep learning(DL)has proven to be important for computed tomography(CT)image denoising.However,such models are usually trained under supervision,requiring paired data that may be difficult to obtain in practice.Diffusion models offer unsupervised means of solving a wide range of inverse problems via posterior sampling.In particular,using the estimated unconditional score function of the prior distribution,obtained via unsupervised learning,one can sample from the desired posterior via hijacking and regularization.However,due to the iterative solvers used,the number of function evaluations(NFE)required may be orders of magnitudes larger than for single-step samplers.In this paper,we present a novel image denoising technique for photon-counting CT by extending the unsupervised approach to inverse problem solving to the case of Poisson flow generative models(PFGM)++.By hijacking and regularizing the sampling process we obtain a single-step sampler,that is NFE=1.Our proposed method incorporates posterior sampling using diffusion models as a special case.We demonstrate that the added robustness afforded by the PFGM++framework yields significant performance gains.Our results indicate competitive performance compared to popular supervised,including state-of-the-art diffusion-style models with NFE=1(consistency models),unsupervised,and non-DL-based image denoising techniques,on clinical low-dose CT data and clinical images from a prototype photon-counting CT system developed by GE HealthCare.
基金Supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China, the Guangdong Natural Science Foundation (S2011010004511)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China (201120102020005)
文摘In this paper, we consider a compound Poisson risk model with taxes paid according to a loss-carry-forward system and dividends paid under a threshold strategy. First, the closed-form expression of the probability function for the total number of taxation periods over the lifetime of the surplus process is derived. Second, analytical expression of the expected accumulated discounted dividends paid between two consecutive taxation periods is provided. In addition, explicit expressions are also given for the exponential individual claims.
文摘In this work, some non-homogeneous Poisson models are considered to study the behaviour of ozone in the city of Puebla, Mexico. Several functions are used as the rate function for the non-homogeneous Poisson process. In addition to their dependence on time, these rate functions also depend on some parameters that need to be estimated. In order to estimate them, a Bayesian approach will be taken. The expressions for the distributions of the parameters involved in the models are very complex. Therefore, Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms are used to estimate them. The methodology is applied to the ozone data from the city of Puebla, Mexico.
文摘Stop frequency models, as one of the elements of activity based models, represent an important part of travel behavior. Unobserved heterogeneity across the travelers should be taken into consideration to prevent biasedness and inconsistency in the estimated parameters in the stop frequency models. Additionally, previous studies on the stop frequency have mostly been done in larger metropolitan areas and less attention has been paid to the areas with less population. This study addresses these gaps by using 2012 travel data from a medium sized U.S. urban area using the work tour for the case study. Stop in the work tour were classified into three groups of outbound leg, work based subtour, and inbound leg of the commutes. Latent Class Poisson Regression Models were used to analyze the data. The results indicate the presence of heterogeneity across the commuters. Using latent class models significantly improves the predictive power of the models compared to regular one class Poisson regression models. In contrast to one class Poisson models, gender becomes insignificant in predicting the number of tours when unobserved heterogeneity is accounted for. The commuters are associated with increased stops on their work based subtour when the employment density of service-related occupations increases in their work zone, but employment density of retail employment does not significantly contribute to the stop making likelihood of the commuters. Additionally, an increase in the number of work tours was associated with fewer stops on the inbound leg of the commute. The results of this study suggest the consideration of unobserved heterogeneity in the stop frequency models and help transportation agencies and policy makers make better inferences from such models.
文摘The present paper proposes a new robust estimator for Poisson regression models. We used the weighted maximum likelihood estimators which are regarded as Mallows-type estimators. We perform a Monte Carlo simulation study to assess the performance of a suggested estimator compared to the maximum likelihood estimator and some robust methods. The result shows that, in general, all robust methods in this paper perform better than the classical maximum likelihood estimators when the model contains outliers. The proposed estimators showed the best performance compared to other robust estimators.
基金financially supported by the project PAPIIT number IN104110-3 of the Direccion General de Apoyo al Personal Academico of the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico,Mexico,and is part of JMB’s Ph.D.partially funded by the Consejo Nacional de Ciencias y Tecnologia,Mexico,through the Ph.D.Scholarship number 210347JAA was partially funded by the Conselho Nacional de Pesquisa,Brazil,grant number 300235/2005-4.
文摘We consider some non-homogeneous Poisson models to estimate the mean number of times that a given environmental threshold of interest is surpassed by a given pollutant. Seven different rate functions for the Poisson processes describing the models are taken into account. The rate functions considered are the Weibull, exponentiated-Weibull, and their generalisation the Beta-Weibull rate function. We also use the Musa-Okumoto, the Goel-Okumoto, a generalised Goel- Okumoto and the Weibull-geometric rate functions. Whenever thought justifiable, the model allowing the presence of change-points is also going to be considered. The different models are applied to the daily maximum ozone measurements data provided by the monitoring network of the Metropolitan Area of Mexico City. The aim is to compare the adjustment of different rate functions to the data. Even though, some of the rate functions have been considered before, now we are applying them to the same data set. In previous works they were used in different data sets and therefore a comparison of the adequacy of those models were not possible. The measurements considered here were obtained after a series of environmental measures were implemented in Mexico City. Hence, the data present a different behaviour from that of earlier studies.
文摘This study uses logistic and Poisson regression models to examine the factors influencing the adoption of sustain-able land management(SLM)practices in Mali using two rounds of the nationally representative survey Enquête Agricole de Conjoncture Intégrée aux Conditions de Vie des Ménages.The SLMs considered include the applica-tion of organic fertilizers,the application of inorganic fertilizers,the use of improved seeds,and the practice of intercropping.On average the application of organic fertilizers(39.2%),and inorganic fertilizers(28.7%)are the most frequent SLM practices among Malian farmers,and between 2014 and 2017,we observe a decline in the practice of intercropping.The regression results show that farmers’adoption of different SLMs is significantly associated with biophysical factors(average temperature,climate type,plot size,plot shape,and location),de-mographic factors(age,gender,education,household size),and socioeconomic factors(number of cultivated plots,livelihood diversification,type of crop grown,market access,credit access,economic shocks,and social capital).Our findings suggest that policymakers and agricultural development agencies in Mali need to adopt a multidimensional policy framework to unlock the untapped potential of SLM practices in promoting sustainable agriculture and food security.
基金supported by the National "973" project on Population and Health (No. 2007CB5119001)the National Yang‐Zi Scholar Program, 211 and 985 projects of Peking University (No. 20020903)
文摘Objective Our objective is to build a model that explains the association between the exposure to trace elements in the soil and the risk of neural tube defects. Methods We built a function with different parameters to describe the effects of trace elements on neural tube defects. The association between neural tube defects and trace element levels was transformed into an optimization problem using the maximum likelihood method. Results Tin, lead, nickel, iron, copper, and aluminum had typical layered effects （dosage effects） on the prevalence of neural tube defects. Arsenic, selenium, zinc, strontium, and vanadium had no effect, and molybdenum had one threshold value that affected the prevalence of birth defects. Conclusion As an exploratory research work, our model can be used to determine the direction of the effect of the trace element content of cultivated soil on the risk of neural tube defects, which shows the clues by the dosage effect of their toxicological characteristics. Based on our findings, future biogeochemical research should focus on the direct effects of trace elements on human health.
文摘The stress release model is a stochastic point process model developed from the theory of elastic rebound. It can be used to analyse, simulate or predict the seismicity in a certain seismic region. This paper first gives a brief representation of the theory of the stress release model and the method of how to use it to analyse earthquake data, then this model is to fit the earthquake data in North China, Southwest China and Taiwan. The results show that the stress release model fits to the data better than the Poisson model. The different features of stress accumulation and release in these regions imply that the seismic activity is essentially different among these regions.
基金Supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and the Ministry of Education of China
文摘We consider a continuous time risk model based on a two state Markov process, in which after an exponentially distributed time, the claim frequency changes to a different level and can change back again in the same way. We derive the Laplace transform for the first passage time to surplus zero from a given negative surplus and for the duration of negative surplus. Closed-form expressions are given in the case of exponential individual claim. Finally, numerical results are provided to show how to estimate the moments of duration of negative surplus.
基金partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos.51279186,51479183)the National Key Research and Development Program (Nos.2016YFC0303401,2016YFC0802301)
文摘Abstract Dike failure and marine losses are quite prominent in Laizhou Bay during the period of cold wave storm surges because of its open coastline to the north and fiat topography. In order to evaluate the intensity of c01d wave storm surge, the hindcast of ma- rine elements induced by cold waves in Laizhou Bay from 1985 to 2004 is conducted using a cold wave storm surge-wave coupled model and the joint return period of extreme water level, concomitant wave height, and concomitant wind speed are calculated. A new criterion of cold wave storm surge intensity based on such studies is developed. Considering the frequency of cold wave, this paper introduces a Poisson trivariate compound reconstruction model to calculate the joint return period, which is closer to the reality. By using the newly defined cold wave storm surge intensity, the ＇cold wave grade＇ in meteorology can better describe the severity of cold wave storm surges and the warning level is well corresponding to different intensities of cold wave storm surges. Therefore, it provides a proper guidance to marine hydrological analysis, disaster prevention and marine structure design in Laizhou Bay.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (10971157)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities
文摘In this paper, the absolute ruin in the compound Poisson risk model with interest and a constant dividend barrier is investigated. First, integro-differential equations satisfied by the expected discounted dividend payments are derived. The explicit expressions are obtained when the individual claim size is exponential distributed. Second, the moment generating function of the discounted dividends is considered, and integro-differential equations satisfied by the moment generating function of the discounted dividends are derived. Third, by a ＂differential＂ argument, the time to recovery to zero from a given negative surplus is considered. Finally, how long it takes for the surplus process to reach the dividend barrier is discussed.
基金Jilin province education department"twelfth five-year"science and technology research plan project([2015]No.58)the science and technology innovation fund(No.XJJLG-2014-02)of Changchun University of Science and Technology
文摘In this paper, we study a class of ruin problems, in which premiums and claims are dependent. Under the assumption that premium income is a stochastic process, we raise the model that premiums and claims are dependent, give its numerical characteristics and the ruin probability of the individual risk model in the surplus process. In addition, we promote the number of insurance policies to a Poisson process with parameter λ, using martingale methods to obtain the upper bound of the ultimate ruin probability.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (61172138)the Open Fund of Key Laboratory of Precision Navigation and Technology,National Time Service Center,CAS (2012PNTT02)
文摘The distribution probability of the photon interarrival time （PIT） without signal initial phases is derived based on the Poisson model of X-ray pulsar signals, and a pulsar signal detection algorithm employing the PIT sequence is put forward. The joint probability of the PIT sequence is regarded as a function of the distribution probability and used to compare a constant radiation intensity model with the nonhomogeneous Poisson model for the signal detection. The relationship between the number of detected photons and the probabilities of false negative and positive is studied, and the success rate and mean detection time are estimated based on the number of the given photons. For the spacecraft velocity data detection, the changes of time of photon arrival （TOPA） and PIT caused by spacecraft motion are presented first, then the influences on detection are analyzed respectively. By using the analytical pulse profile of PSR B0531＋21, the simulation of the Xray pulsar signal detection is implemented. The simulation results verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, and the contrast tests show that the proposed method is suitable for the spacecraft velocity data detection.
基金National Key Basic Research Project (G98040706).
文摘Stress release model used to be applied to seismicity study of large historical earthquakes in a space of large scale. In this paper, we improve the stress release model, and discuss whether the stress release model is still applicable or not in the case of smaller spatio-temporal scale and weaker earthquakes. As an example of testing the model, we have analyzed the M greater than or equal 6 earthquakes in recent about 100 years. The result shows that the stress release model is still applicable. The earthquake conditional probability intensity in Taiwan Region is calculated with the improved stress release model. We see that accuracy of earthquake occurrence time predicted by the improved stress release model is higher than that by Poisson model in the test of retrospect earthquake prediction.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(11401498)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(WUT:2015IVA066)
文摘In this paper we consider the Markov-dependent risk model with tax payments in which the claim occurrence, the claim amount as well as the tax rate are controlled by an irreducible discrete-time Markov chain. Systems of integro-differential equations satisfied by the expected discounted tax payments and the non-ruin probability in terms of the ruin probabilities under the Markov-dependent risk model without tax are established. The analytical solutions of the systems of integro-differential equations are also obtained by the iteration method.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52170105)the Ministry of Science and Technology of China(2019YFD1100105)the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(2019043).
文摘The commonly used Poisson rectangular pulse(PRP)model,employed for simulating high-resolution residential water consumption patterns(RWCPs),relies on calibration via medium-resolution RWCPs obtained from practical measurements.This introduces inevitable uncertainty stemming from the measured RWCPs,which consequently impacts the precision of model simulations.Here we enhance the accuracy of the PRP model by addressing the uncertainty of RWCPs.We established a critical sampling size of 2000 household water consumption patterns(HWCPs)with a data logging interval(DLI)of 15 min to attain dependable RWCPs.Through Genetic Algorithm calibration,the optimal values of the PRP model's parameters were determined:pulse frequency lλ=91 d^(-1),mean of pulse intensity E(I)=0.346 m^(3) h^(-1),standard deviation of pulse intensity STD(I)=0.292 m^(3) h^(-1),mean of pulse duration E(D)=40 s,and standard deviation of pulse duration STD(D)=55 s.Furthermore,validation was conducted at both HWCP and RWCP levels.We recommend a sampling size of2000 HWCPs and a DLI of30 min for PRP model calibration to balance simulation precision and practical implementation.This study significantly advances the theoretical foundation and real-world application of the PRP model,enhancing its role in urban water supply system management.
文摘The European Union （EU） Wild Birds Directive recognises that the most serious threats to wild birds＇ conservation in Europe are habitat loss and degradation, and hence, habitats of threatened and migratory species must be protected with the establishment of the network of the special protection areas （SPAs） for migratory and endangered bird species in the EU member states. The major European population of the lesser kestrel Falco naumanni, a migratory falcon listed in Annex I of the Birds Directive, occurs in low-input farming systems in the Mediterranean basin, including Greece. The aim of this study was to identify foraging habitats of lesser kestrels and relate them to the delimited SPAs in the agro-ecosystems of Greece, where the stronghold of the species population for Greece occurs. Foraging habitat preferences were assessed using Poisson regression models （PRMs）. SPAs were examined on whether they can effectively protect foraging habitats for breeding lesser kestrels in the study area. Foraging lesser kestrel abundance was positively associated with grasslands and non-irrigated land （dry cereals）, and negatively associated with irrigated land （wet cotton）, scrubland and woodland. Electricity facilities were used as foraging perches by lesser kestrels. The current SPAs cover a small percentage of the species＇ foraging sites and cannot be considered coherent enough to support and protect the foraging habitats of lesser kestrels and other priority species in the agro-ecosystems of the study area. Proposals for effective conservation of low-input farming systems, supporting priority species, are also presented.
文摘Based on the calculation method of information gain in the stochastic process presented by Vere-Jones, the rela tion between information gain and probability gain is studied, which is very common in earthquake prediction, and the yearly probability gain for seismic statistical model is proposed. The method is applied to the non stationary Poisson model with whole-process exponential increase and stress release model. In addition, the prediction method of stress release model is obtained based on the inverse function simulation method of stochastic variable.
文摘Analysis of diarrhoea data in Malawi has been commonly done using classical methods. However, different approaches, such as Bayesian methods, have been introduced in literature. This study aimed at trying out semi-parametric methods in comparison with classical ones, as well as how each isolates risk factors for child diarrhoea. This was done by fitting Logit, Poisson, and Bayesian models to 2006 Malawi Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey data. The comparison between Logit and Poisson models was done via chi-square＇s goodness-of-fit test. Confidence and Credible Intervals were used to compare Logit/Poisson and Bayesian model estimates. Modelling and inference in Bayesian method was done through MCMC techniques. The results showed agreement in significance and direction of estimates from Bayesian and Poisson/Logit models, but Poisson provided better fit than Logit model. Further, all the models identified child＇s age, breastfeeding status, region of stay and toilet-sharing status as significant factors for determining the child＇s risk. The models ruled out effects of mother＇s education, area of residence, and source of drinking water on the risk. Bayesian model separately proved significant closeness to lake/river factor. The findings imply that classical and semi-parametric models are equally helpful when estimating the child＇s risk to diarrhoea.
