Modern satellite propulsion systems are generally designed to fulfill multiphase-missions.Traditional reliability modelling methods have problems of inadequate depict capacity considering complex systems such as satel...Modern satellite propulsion systems are generally designed to fulfill multiphase-missions.Traditional reliability modelling methods have problems of inadequate depict capacity considering complex systems such as satellite propulsion system.An extended object-oriented Petri net(EOOPN)method was proposed to facilitate the reliability modelling of satellite propulsion system in the paper.The proposed method was specified for modelling of phased mission system,and it could be implemented by generating combination of Petri net(PN)principles and object-oriented(OO)programming.The effectiveness of the proposed method was demonstrated through the reliability modelling of a satellite propulsion system with EOOPN.The major advantage of the proposed method is that the dimension of net model can be reduced significantly,and phased mission system at system,phase,or component levels can be respectively depicted.Furthermore,the state-space explosion problem is solved by the proposed EOOPN model efficiently.展开更多
Object-oriented Petri nets (OPNs) is extended into stochastic object-oriented Petri nets (SOPNs) by associating the OPN of an object with stochastic transitions and introducing stochastic places. The stochastic transi...Object-oriented Petri nets (OPNs) is extended into stochastic object-oriented Petri nets (SOPNs) by associating the OPN of an object with stochastic transitions and introducing stochastic places. The stochastic transition of the SOPNs of a production resources can be used to model its reliability, while the SOPN of a production resource can describe its performance with reliability considered. The SOPN model of a case production system is built to illustrate the relationship between the system's performances and the failures of individual production resources.展开更多
Aim To define a mixed redundant model(MRM), improving the reliability of C 3I system. Methods The model combined the technology characters of two? unit system with one warm stand by unit and function substitute s...Aim To define a mixed redundant model(MRM), improving the reliability of C 3I system. Methods The model combined the technology characters of two? unit system with one warm stand by unit and function substitute system. The reliability and availability equations of MRM were deduced. Results and Conclusion Compared with several other reliability models, it has obvious effect upon improving the system reliability. The effect? cost rate is very high among these models. The model can be used in reliability design, evaluation and check of C 3I system. Only a little attached cost is needed to improve C 3I system reliability effectively.展开更多
For complex engineering problems,multi-fidelity modeling has been used to achieve efficient reliability analysis by leveraging multiple information sources.However,most methods require nested training samples to captu...For complex engineering problems,multi-fidelity modeling has been used to achieve efficient reliability analysis by leveraging multiple information sources.However,most methods require nested training samples to capture the correlation between different fidelity data,which may lead to a significant increase in low-fidelity samples.In addition,it is difficult to build accurate surrogate models because current methods do not fully consider the nonlinearity between different fidelity samples.To address these problems,a novel multi-fidelity modeling method with active learning is proposed in this paper.Firstly,a nonlinear autoregressive multi-fidelity Kriging(NAMK)model is used to build a surrogate model.To avoid introducing redundant samples in the process of NAMK model updating,a collective learning function is then developed by a combination of a U-learning function,the correlation between different fidelity samples,and the sampling cost.Furthermore,a residual model is constructed to automatically generate low-fidelity samples when high-fidelity samples are selected.The efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method are demonstrated using three numerical examples and an engineering case.展开更多
In time-variant reliability problems,there are a lot of uncertain variables from different sources.Therefore,it is important to consider these uncertainties in engineering.In addition,time-variant reliability problems...In time-variant reliability problems,there are a lot of uncertain variables from different sources.Therefore,it is important to consider these uncertainties in engineering.In addition,time-variant reliability problems typically involve a complexmultilevel nested optimization problem,which can result in an enormous amount of computation.To this end,this paper studies the time-variant reliability evaluation of structures with stochastic and bounded uncertainties using a mixed probability and convex set model.In this method,the stochastic process of a limit-state function with mixed uncertain parameters is first discretized and then converted into a timeindependent reliability problem.Further,to solve the double nested optimization problem in hybrid reliability calculation,an efficient iterative scheme is designed in standard uncertainty space to determine the most probable point(MPP).The limit state function is linearized at these points,and an innovative random variable is defined to solve the equivalent static reliability analysis model.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by two benchmark numerical examples and a practical engineering problem.展开更多
This paper is devoted to the probabilistic stability analysis of a tunnel face excavated in a two-layer soil. The interface of the soil layers is assumed to be positioned above the tunnel roof. In the framework of lim...This paper is devoted to the probabilistic stability analysis of a tunnel face excavated in a two-layer soil. The interface of the soil layers is assumed to be positioned above the tunnel roof. In the framework of limit analysis, a rotational failure mechanism is adopted to describe the face failure considering different shear strength parameters in the two layers. The surrogate Kriging model is introduced to replace the actual performance function to perform a Monte Carlo simulation. An active learning function is used to train the Kriging model which can ensure an efficient tunnel face failure probability prediction without loss of accuracy. The deterministic stability analysis is given to validate the proposed tunnel face failure model. Subsequently, the number of initial sampling points, the correlation coefficient, the distribution type and the coefficient of variability of random variables are discussed to show their influences on the failure probability. The proposed approach is an advisable alternative for the tunnel face stability assessment and can provide guidance for tunnel design.展开更多
Surrogate models offer an efficient approach to tackle the computationally intensive evaluation of performance functions in reliability analysis.Nevertheless,the approximations inherent in surrogate models necessitate...Surrogate models offer an efficient approach to tackle the computationally intensive evaluation of performance functions in reliability analysis.Nevertheless,the approximations inherent in surrogate models necessitate the consideration of surrogate model uncertainty in estimating failure probabilities.This paper proposes a new reliability analysis method in which the uncertainty from the Kriging surrogate model is quantified simultaneously.This method treats surrogate model uncertainty as an independent entity,characterizing the estimation error of failure probabilities.Building upon the probabilistic classification function,a failure probability uncertainty is proposed by integrating the difference between the traditional indicator function and the probabilistic classification function to quantify the impact of surrogate model uncertainty on failure probability estimation.Furthermore,the proposed uncertainty quantification method is applied to a newly designed reliability analysis approach termed SUQ-MCS,incorporating a proposed median approximation function for active learning.The proposed failure probability uncertainty serves as the stopping criterion of this framework.Through benchmarking,the effectiveness of the proposed uncertainty quantification method is validated.The empirical results present the competitive performance of the SUQ-MCS method relative to alternative approaches.展开更多
The swinging-loading process is essential for automatic artillery loading systems.This study focuses on the problems of reliability analysis that affect swinging-loading positioning accuracy.A dynamic model for a mult...The swinging-loading process is essential for automatic artillery loading systems.This study focuses on the problems of reliability analysis that affect swinging-loading positioning accuracy.A dynamic model for a multi degree-of-freedom swinging-loading-integrated rigid-flexible coupling system is established.This model is based on the identification of key parameters and platform experiments.Based on the spatial geometric relationship between the breech and loader during modular charge transfer and the possible maximum interference depth of the modular charge,a new failure criterion for estimating the reliability of swinging-loading positioning accuracy is proposed.Considering the uncertainties in the operation of the pendulum loader,the direct probability integration method is introduced to analyze the reliability of the swinging-loading positioning accuracy under three different charge numbers.The results indicate that under two and four charges,the swinging-loading process shows outstanding reliability.However,an unstable stage appears when the swinging motion occurred under six charges,with a maximum positioning failure probability of 0.0712.A comparison between the results obtained under the conventional and proposed criteria further reveals the effectiveness and necessity of the proposed criterion.展开更多
In the structural reliability analysis,the first-order reliability method(FORM)often yields significant errors when addressing nonlinear problems.Although the second-order reliability method(SORM)can provide higher ac...In the structural reliability analysis,the first-order reliability method(FORM)often yields significant errors when addressing nonlinear problems.Although the second-order reliability method(SORM)can provide higher accuracy,the additional computation of the Hessian matrix leads to lower computational efficiency.Additionally,when the dimensionality of the random variables is high,the approximation formula of SORM can result in larger errors.To address these issues,a structural reliability analysis method based on Kriging and spherical cap area integral is proposed.Firstly,this method integrates FORM with the quasi-Newton algorithm Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno(BFGS),trains the Kriging model by using sample points from the algorithm’s iteration process,and combines the Kriging model with gradient information to approximate the Hessian matrix.Then,the failure surface is approximated as a rotating paraboloid,utilizing the spherical cap to replace the complex surface.For the n-dimensional case,the hyperspherical cap area expression is combined with the integral method to calculate the failure probability.Finally,the method is validated through three examples,demonstrating improved computational accuracy and efficiency compared to traditional methods.展开更多
The reliability estimation of mechanical seals is of crucial importance due to their wide applications in pumps in various mechanical systems.Failure of mechanical seals might cause leakage,and might lead to system fa...The reliability estimation of mechanical seals is of crucial importance due to their wide applications in pumps in various mechanical systems.Failure of mechanical seals might cause leakage,and might lead to system failure and other relevant consequences.In this study,the reliability estimation for mechanical seals based on bivariate dependence analysis and considering model uncertainty is proposed.The friction torque and leakage rate are two degradation performance indicators of mechanical seals that can be described by the Wiener process,Gamma process,and inverse Gaussian process.The dependence between the two indicators can be described by different copula functions.Then the model uncertainty is considered in the reliability estimation using the Bayesian Model Average(BMA)method,while the unknown parameters in the model are estimated by Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)method.A numerical simulation study and fatigue crack study are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the BMA method to capture model uncertainty.A degradation test of mechanical seals is conducted to verify the proposed model.The optimal stochastic process models for two performance indicators and copula function are determined based on the degradation data.The results show the necessity of using the BMA method in degradation modeling.展开更多
This paper aims to solve the resonance failure probability and develop an effective method to estimate the effects of variables and failure modes on failure probability of axially functionally graded material(FGM)pipe...This paper aims to solve the resonance failure probability and develop an effective method to estimate the effects of variables and failure modes on failure probability of axially functionally graded material(FGM)pipe conveying fluid.Correspondingly,the natural frequency of axially FGM pipes conveying fluid is calculated using the differential quadrature method(DQM).A variable sensitivity analysis(VSA)is introduced to measure the effect of each random variable,and a mode sensitivity analysis(MSA)is introduced to acquire the importance ranking of failure modes.Then,an active learning Kriging(ALK)method is established to calculate the resonance failure probability and sensitivity indices,which greatly improves the application of resonance reliability analysis for pipelines in engineering practice.Based on the resonance reliability analysis method,the effects of fluid velocity,volume fraction and fluid density of axially FGM pipe conveying fluid on resonance reliability are analyzed.The results demonstrate that the proposed method has great performance in the anti-resonance analysis of pipes conveying fluid.展开更多
An approach to analyze the seismic reliability of water distribution networks by combining a hydraulic analysis with a first-order reliability method （FORM）, is proposed in this paper. The hydraulic analysis method ...An approach to analyze the seismic reliability of water distribution networks by combining a hydraulic analysis with a first-order reliability method （FORM）, is proposed in this paper. The hydraulic analysis method for normal conditions is modified to accommodate the special conditions necessary to perform a seismic hydraulic analysis. In order to calculate the leakage area and leaking flow of the pipelines in the hydraulic analysis method, a new leakage model established from the seismic response analysis of buried pipelines is presented. To validate the proposed approach, a network with 17 nodes and 24 pipelines is investigated in detail. The approach is also applied to an actual project consisting of 463 nodes and 767 pipelines. The results show that the proposed approach achieves satisfactory results in analyzing the seismic reliability of large-scale water distribution networks.展开更多
In order to investigate the general reliability assessment methods based on performance degradation data,two commonly used stochastic process approaches,bilinear process method and random-effect model were studied.Ana...In order to investigate the general reliability assessment methods based on performance degradation data,two commonly used stochastic process approaches,bilinear process method and random-effect model were studied.Analyzing procedure and effectiveness of these two methodologies were studied and compared.Meanwhile,the two approaches were illustrated through practical applications.The residual plots and the 10th percentile curves of the two methods were presented to demonstrate the comparative results.The randomeffect model yielded more volatile residuals and a lower and unsafe 10th percentile curve.Consequently the bilinear process model can be concluded to derive more reasonable results due to its one-stage estimation property.展开更多
The experimental tests of tensile for lead-flee solder Sn-3.5Ag were performed for the general work temperatures range from 11 to 90 ℃ and strain rate range from 5 × 10^-5 to 2 × 10^-2s^-1, and its stress--...The experimental tests of tensile for lead-flee solder Sn-3.5Ag were performed for the general work temperatures range from 11 to 90 ℃ and strain rate range from 5 × 10^-5 to 2 × 10^-2s^-1, and its stress--strain curves were compared to those of solder Sn-37Pb. The parameters in Anand model for solder Sn-3.5Ag were fitted based on experimental data and nonlinear fitting method, and its validity was checked by means of experimental data. Furthermore, the Anand model was used in the FEM analysis to evaluate solder joint thermal cycle reliability. The results show that solder Sn-3.5Ag has a better creep resistance than solder Sn-37Pb. The maximum stress is located at the upper right comer of the outmost solder joint from the symmetric center, and thermal fatigue life is predicted to be 3.796 × 10^4 cycles under the calculated conditions.展开更多
The aim of this paper is to propose a theoretical approach for performing the nonprobabilistic reliability analysis of structure.Due to a great deal of uncertainties and limited measured data in engineering practice,t...The aim of this paper is to propose a theoretical approach for performing the nonprobabilistic reliability analysis of structure.Due to a great deal of uncertainties and limited measured data in engineering practice,the structural uncertain parameters were described as interval variables.The theoretical analysis model was developed by starting from the 2-D plane and 3-D space.In order to avoid the loss of probable failure points,the 2-D plane and 3-D space were respectively divided into two parts and three parts for further analysis.The study pointed out that the probable failure points only existed among extreme points and root points of the limit state function.Furthermore,the low-dimensional analytical scheme was extended to the high-dimensional case.Using the proposed approach,it is easy to find the most probable failure point and to acquire the reliability index through simple comparison directly.A number of equations used for calculating the extreme points and root points were also evaluated.This result was useful to avoid the loss of probable failure points and meaningful for optimizing searches in the research field.Finally,two kinds of examples were presented and compared with the existing computation.The good agreements show that the proposed theoretical analysis approach in the paper is correct.The efforts were conducted to improve the optimization method,to indicate the search direction and path,and to avoid only searching the local optimal solution which would result in missed probable failure points.展开更多
This paper is aimed at examining the applicability of methods for resilience, reliability and risk analyses of rain-fed agricultural systems from modeled continuous soil moisture availability in rain-fed crop lands. T...This paper is aimed at examining the applicability of methods for resilience, reliability and risk analyses of rain-fed agricultural systems from modeled continuous soil moisture availability in rain-fed crop lands. The methodology involves integration of soil and climatic data in a simple soil moisture accounting model to assess soil moisture availability, and a risk used as indicator of sustainability of rain-fed agricultural systems. It is also attempted to demonstrate the role of soil moisture modeling in risk analysis and agricultural water management in a semi-arid region in Limpopo Basin where rain-fed agriculture is practiced. For this purpose, a daily-time step soil moisture accounting model is employed to simulate daily soil moisture, evaporation, surface runoff, and deep percolation using 40 years (1961-2000) of agroclimatic data, and cropping cycle data of maize, sorghum and sunflower. Using a sustainability criterion on crop water requirement and soil moisture availability, we determined resilience, risk and reliability as a quantitative measure of sustainability of rain-fed agriculture of these three crops. These soil moisture simulations and the sustainability criteria revealed further confirmation of the relative sensitivity to drought of these crops. Generally it is found that the risk of failure is relatively low for sorghum and relatively high for maize and sunflower in the two sites with some differences of severity of failure owing to the slightly different agroclimatic settings.展开更多
The subsea all-electric Christmas tree(XT) is a key equipment in subsea production systems.Once it fails,the marine environment will be seriously polluted.Therefore,strict reliability analysis and measures to improve ...The subsea all-electric Christmas tree(XT) is a key equipment in subsea production systems.Once it fails,the marine environment will be seriously polluted.Therefore,strict reliability analysis and measures to improve reliability must be performed before a subsea all-electric XT is launched;such measures are crucial to subsea safe production.A fault-tolerant control system was developed in this paper to improve the reliability of XT.A dual-factor degradation model for electrical control system components was proposed to improve the evaluation accuracy,and the reliability of the control system was analyzed based on the Markov model.The influences of the common cause failure and the failure rate in key components on the reliability and availability of the control system were studied.The impacts of mean time to repair and incomplete repair strategy on the availability of the control system were also investigated.Research results show the key factors that affect system reliability,and a specific method to improve the reliability and availability of the control system was given.This reliability analysis method for the control system could be applied to general all-electric subsea control systems to guide their safe production.展开更多
Petri net has been used in system modeling and analyzing in many practical systems, but the system reliability has never been considered before, that is, system modeling and analysis were done based on supposing that ...Petri net has been used in system modeling and analyzing in many practical systems, but the system reliability has never been considered before, that is, system modeling and analysis were done based on supposing that there were no faults and no need to repair in system resources (equipment). Actually, a practical system is often at fault and needs repairs, so Petri net model does not really represent the action of the system to a certain extent. In this paper, theory of reliability is introduced to Petri net, Petri net model of repairable system is built, and the analysis method of system model is given. The importance is illustrated by imitating a product system.展开更多
In recent years, many software development organizations have been assessing and analyzing their software product’s reliability/quality and judging whether the software product is releasable by using Software Reliabi...In recent years, many software development organizations have been assessing and analyzing their software product’s reliability/quality and judging whether the software product is releasable by using Software Reliability Growth Models (SRGMs) at the final stage of software development. The usage of SRGMs originates in the advantage that various reliability analysis results based on the SRGMs can be acquired easily. However, it is very difficult for general software project managers to grasp the achievement level of reliability/quality based on its analysis results because some sort of professional knowledge is required in order to understand the information on the attainment progress of software product’s reliability/quality. Moreover, it is also difficult for software project managers and inspectors who do not deeply comprehend the details of their project to evaluate the degree of software reliability and quality, if they assess it without grasping the live development situation and only see the documents submitted from their staff. In this paper, we propose a new analysis concept for assessing the software product’s reliability/quality, and illustrate the output results obtained by a tool, the SafeMan.展开更多
Reliability analysis methods based on the linear damage accumulation law (LDAL) and load-life interference model are studied in this paper. According to the equal probability rule, the equivalent loads are derived, an...Reliability analysis methods based on the linear damage accumulation law (LDAL) and load-life interference model are studied in this paper. According to the equal probability rule, the equivalent loads are derived, and the reliability analysis method based on load-life interference model and recurrence formula is constructed. In conjunction with finite element analysis (FEA) program, the reliability of an aero engine turbine disk under low cycle fatigue (LCF) condition has been analyzed. The results show the turbine disk is safety and the above reliability analysis methods are feasible.展开更多
文摘Modern satellite propulsion systems are generally designed to fulfill multiphase-missions.Traditional reliability modelling methods have problems of inadequate depict capacity considering complex systems such as satellite propulsion system.An extended object-oriented Petri net(EOOPN)method was proposed to facilitate the reliability modelling of satellite propulsion system in the paper.The proposed method was specified for modelling of phased mission system,and it could be implemented by generating combination of Petri net(PN)principles and object-oriented(OO)programming.The effectiveness of the proposed method was demonstrated through the reliability modelling of a satellite propulsion system with EOOPN.The major advantage of the proposed method is that the dimension of net model can be reduced significantly,and phased mission system at system,phase,or component levels can be respectively depicted.Furthermore,the state-space explosion problem is solved by the proposed EOOPN model efficiently.
基金This project is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.50085003).
文摘Object-oriented Petri nets (OPNs) is extended into stochastic object-oriented Petri nets (SOPNs) by associating the OPN of an object with stochastic transitions and introducing stochastic places. The stochastic transition of the SOPNs of a production resources can be used to model its reliability, while the SOPN of a production resource can describe its performance with reliability considered. The SOPN model of a case production system is built to illustrate the relationship between the system's performances and the failures of individual production resources.
文摘Aim To define a mixed redundant model(MRM), improving the reliability of C 3I system. Methods The model combined the technology characters of two? unit system with one warm stand by unit and function substitute system. The reliability and availability equations of MRM were deduced. Results and Conclusion Compared with several other reliability models, it has obvious effect upon improving the system reliability. The effect? cost rate is very high among these models. The model can be used in reliability design, evaluation and check of C 3I system. Only a little attached cost is needed to improve C 3I system reliability effectively.
基金supported by the Major Projects of Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China(No.LD22E050009)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51475425)the College Student’s Science and Technology Innovation Project of Zhejiang Province(No.2022R403B060),China.
文摘For complex engineering problems,multi-fidelity modeling has been used to achieve efficient reliability analysis by leveraging multiple information sources.However,most methods require nested training samples to capture the correlation between different fidelity data,which may lead to a significant increase in low-fidelity samples.In addition,it is difficult to build accurate surrogate models because current methods do not fully consider the nonlinearity between different fidelity samples.To address these problems,a novel multi-fidelity modeling method with active learning is proposed in this paper.Firstly,a nonlinear autoregressive multi-fidelity Kriging(NAMK)model is used to build a surrogate model.To avoid introducing redundant samples in the process of NAMK model updating,a collective learning function is then developed by a combination of a U-learning function,the correlation between different fidelity samples,and the sampling cost.Furthermore,a residual model is constructed to automatically generate low-fidelity samples when high-fidelity samples are selected.The efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method are demonstrated using three numerical examples and an engineering case.
基金partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52375238)Science and Technology Program of Guangzhou(202201020213,202201020193,202201010399)GZHU-HKUST Joint Research Fund(YH202109).
文摘In time-variant reliability problems,there are a lot of uncertain variables from different sources.Therefore,it is important to consider these uncertainties in engineering.In addition,time-variant reliability problems typically involve a complexmultilevel nested optimization problem,which can result in an enormous amount of computation.To this end,this paper studies the time-variant reliability evaluation of structures with stochastic and bounded uncertainties using a mixed probability and convex set model.In this method,the stochastic process of a limit-state function with mixed uncertain parameters is first discretized and then converted into a timeindependent reliability problem.Further,to solve the double nested optimization problem in hybrid reliability calculation,an efficient iterative scheme is designed in standard uncertainty space to determine the most probable point(MPP).The limit state function is linearized at these points,and an innovative random variable is defined to solve the equivalent static reliability analysis model.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by two benchmark numerical examples and a practical engineering problem.
基金Projects supported by the China Scholarship Council
文摘This paper is devoted to the probabilistic stability analysis of a tunnel face excavated in a two-layer soil. The interface of the soil layers is assumed to be positioned above the tunnel roof. In the framework of limit analysis, a rotational failure mechanism is adopted to describe the face failure considering different shear strength parameters in the two layers. The surrogate Kriging model is introduced to replace the actual performance function to perform a Monte Carlo simulation. An active learning function is used to train the Kriging model which can ensure an efficient tunnel face failure probability prediction without loss of accuracy. The deterministic stability analysis is given to validate the proposed tunnel face failure model. Subsequently, the number of initial sampling points, the correlation coefficient, the distribution type and the coefficient of variability of random variables are discussed to show their influences on the failure probability. The proposed approach is an advisable alternative for the tunnel face stability assessment and can provide guidance for tunnel design.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2023YFB3406900)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52075068).
文摘Surrogate models offer an efficient approach to tackle the computationally intensive evaluation of performance functions in reliability analysis.Nevertheless,the approximations inherent in surrogate models necessitate the consideration of surrogate model uncertainty in estimating failure probabilities.This paper proposes a new reliability analysis method in which the uncertainty from the Kriging surrogate model is quantified simultaneously.This method treats surrogate model uncertainty as an independent entity,characterizing the estimation error of failure probabilities.Building upon the probabilistic classification function,a failure probability uncertainty is proposed by integrating the difference between the traditional indicator function and the probabilistic classification function to quantify the impact of surrogate model uncertainty on failure probability estimation.Furthermore,the proposed uncertainty quantification method is applied to a newly designed reliability analysis approach termed SUQ-MCS,incorporating a proposed median approximation function for active learning.The proposed failure probability uncertainty serves as the stopping criterion of this framework.Through benchmarking,the effectiveness of the proposed uncertainty quantification method is validated.The empirical results present the competitive performance of the SUQ-MCS method relative to alternative approaches.
文摘The swinging-loading process is essential for automatic artillery loading systems.This study focuses on the problems of reliability analysis that affect swinging-loading positioning accuracy.A dynamic model for a multi degree-of-freedom swinging-loading-integrated rigid-flexible coupling system is established.This model is based on the identification of key parameters and platform experiments.Based on the spatial geometric relationship between the breech and loader during modular charge transfer and the possible maximum interference depth of the modular charge,a new failure criterion for estimating the reliability of swinging-loading positioning accuracy is proposed.Considering the uncertainties in the operation of the pendulum loader,the direct probability integration method is introduced to analyze the reliability of the swinging-loading positioning accuracy under three different charge numbers.The results indicate that under two and four charges,the swinging-loading process shows outstanding reliability.However,an unstable stage appears when the swinging motion occurred under six charges,with a maximum positioning failure probability of 0.0712.A comparison between the results obtained under the conventional and proposed criteria further reveals the effectiveness and necessity of the proposed criterion.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52375236)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,China(No.23D110316)。
文摘In the structural reliability analysis,the first-order reliability method(FORM)often yields significant errors when addressing nonlinear problems.Although the second-order reliability method(SORM)can provide higher accuracy,the additional computation of the Hessian matrix leads to lower computational efficiency.Additionally,when the dimensionality of the random variables is high,the approximation formula of SORM can result in larger errors.To address these issues,a structural reliability analysis method based on Kriging and spherical cap area integral is proposed.Firstly,this method integrates FORM with the quasi-Newton algorithm Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno(BFGS),trains the Kriging model by using sample points from the algorithm’s iteration process,and combines the Kriging model with gradient information to approximate the Hessian matrix.Then,the failure surface is approximated as a rotating paraboloid,utilizing the spherical cap to replace the complex surface.For the n-dimensional case,the hyperspherical cap area expression is combined with the integral method to calculate the failure probability.Finally,the method is validated through three examples,demonstrating improved computational accuracy and efficiency compared to traditional methods.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.51875015,51620105010)。
文摘The reliability estimation of mechanical seals is of crucial importance due to their wide applications in pumps in various mechanical systems.Failure of mechanical seals might cause leakage,and might lead to system failure and other relevant consequences.In this study,the reliability estimation for mechanical seals based on bivariate dependence analysis and considering model uncertainty is proposed.The friction torque and leakage rate are two degradation performance indicators of mechanical seals that can be described by the Wiener process,Gamma process,and inverse Gaussian process.The dependence between the two indicators can be described by different copula functions.Then the model uncertainty is considered in the reliability estimation using the Bayesian Model Average(BMA)method,while the unknown parameters in the model are estimated by Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)method.A numerical simulation study and fatigue crack study are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the BMA method to capture model uncertainty.A degradation test of mechanical seals is conducted to verify the proposed model.The optimal stochastic process models for two performance indicators and copula function are determined based on the degradation data.The results show the necessity of using the BMA method in degradation modeling.
基金The funding was provided by Laboratory Fund (Grant No.SYJJ200320).
文摘This paper aims to solve the resonance failure probability and develop an effective method to estimate the effects of variables and failure modes on failure probability of axially functionally graded material(FGM)pipe conveying fluid.Correspondingly,the natural frequency of axially FGM pipes conveying fluid is calculated using the differential quadrature method(DQM).A variable sensitivity analysis(VSA)is introduced to measure the effect of each random variable,and a mode sensitivity analysis(MSA)is introduced to acquire the importance ranking of failure modes.Then,an active learning Kriging(ALK)method is established to calculate the resonance failure probability and sensitivity indices,which greatly improves the application of resonance reliability analysis for pipelines in engineering practice.Based on the resonance reliability analysis method,the effects of fluid velocity,volume fraction and fluid density of axially FGM pipe conveying fluid on resonance reliability are analyzed.The results demonstrate that the proposed method has great performance in the anti-resonance analysis of pipes conveying fluid.
基金Natural Science Funds for the Innovative ResearchGroup of China Under Grant No.50321803
文摘An approach to analyze the seismic reliability of water distribution networks by combining a hydraulic analysis with a first-order reliability method （FORM）, is proposed in this paper. The hydraulic analysis method for normal conditions is modified to accommodate the special conditions necessary to perform a seismic hydraulic analysis. In order to calculate the leakage area and leaking flow of the pipelines in the hydraulic analysis method, a new leakage model established from the seismic response analysis of buried pipelines is presented. To validate the proposed approach, a network with 17 nodes and 24 pipelines is investigated in detail. The approach is also applied to an actual project consisting of 463 nodes and 767 pipelines. The results show that the proposed approach achieves satisfactory results in analyzing the seismic reliability of large-scale water distribution networks.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(11202011)Beijing Natural Science Foundation(3154034)+1 种基金Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(YWK13HK11)National Basic Research Program of China(2012CB720000)
文摘In order to investigate the general reliability assessment methods based on performance degradation data,two commonly used stochastic process approaches,bilinear process method and random-effect model were studied.Analyzing procedure and effectiveness of these two methodologies were studied and compared.Meanwhile,the two approaches were illustrated through practical applications.The residual plots and the 10th percentile curves of the two methods were presented to demonstrate the comparative results.The randomeffect model yielded more volatile residuals and a lower and unsafe 10th percentile curve.Consequently the bilinear process model can be concluded to derive more reasonable results due to its one-stage estimation property.
基金Project(50376076) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘The experimental tests of tensile for lead-flee solder Sn-3.5Ag were performed for the general work temperatures range from 11 to 90 ℃ and strain rate range from 5 × 10^-5 to 2 × 10^-2s^-1, and its stress--strain curves were compared to those of solder Sn-37Pb. The parameters in Anand model for solder Sn-3.5Ag were fitted based on experimental data and nonlinear fitting method, and its validity was checked by means of experimental data. Furthermore, the Anand model was used in the FEM analysis to evaluate solder joint thermal cycle reliability. The results show that solder Sn-3.5Ag has a better creep resistance than solder Sn-37Pb. The maximum stress is located at the upper right comer of the outmost solder joint from the symmetric center, and thermal fatigue life is predicted to be 3.796 × 10^4 cycles under the calculated conditions.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (51408444, 51708428)
文摘The aim of this paper is to propose a theoretical approach for performing the nonprobabilistic reliability analysis of structure.Due to a great deal of uncertainties and limited measured data in engineering practice,the structural uncertain parameters were described as interval variables.The theoretical analysis model was developed by starting from the 2-D plane and 3-D space.In order to avoid the loss of probable failure points,the 2-D plane and 3-D space were respectively divided into two parts and three parts for further analysis.The study pointed out that the probable failure points only existed among extreme points and root points of the limit state function.Furthermore,the low-dimensional analytical scheme was extended to the high-dimensional case.Using the proposed approach,it is easy to find the most probable failure point and to acquire the reliability index through simple comparison directly.A number of equations used for calculating the extreme points and root points were also evaluated.This result was useful to avoid the loss of probable failure points and meaningful for optimizing searches in the research field.Finally,two kinds of examples were presented and compared with the existing computation.The good agreements show that the proposed theoretical analysis approach in the paper is correct.The efforts were conducted to improve the optimization method,to indicate the search direction and path,and to avoid only searching the local optimal solution which would result in missed probable failure points.
文摘This paper is aimed at examining the applicability of methods for resilience, reliability and risk analyses of rain-fed agricultural systems from modeled continuous soil moisture availability in rain-fed crop lands. The methodology involves integration of soil and climatic data in a simple soil moisture accounting model to assess soil moisture availability, and a risk used as indicator of sustainability of rain-fed agricultural systems. It is also attempted to demonstrate the role of soil moisture modeling in risk analysis and agricultural water management in a semi-arid region in Limpopo Basin where rain-fed agriculture is practiced. For this purpose, a daily-time step soil moisture accounting model is employed to simulate daily soil moisture, evaporation, surface runoff, and deep percolation using 40 years (1961-2000) of agroclimatic data, and cropping cycle data of maize, sorghum and sunflower. Using a sustainability criterion on crop water requirement and soil moisture availability, we determined resilience, risk and reliability as a quantitative measure of sustainability of rain-fed agriculture of these three crops. These soil moisture simulations and the sustainability criteria revealed further confirmation of the relative sensitivity to drought of these crops. Generally it is found that the risk of failure is relatively low for sorghum and relatively high for maize and sunflower in the two sites with some differences of severity of failure owing to the slightly different agroclimatic settings.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.61703224。
文摘The subsea all-electric Christmas tree(XT) is a key equipment in subsea production systems.Once it fails,the marine environment will be seriously polluted.Therefore,strict reliability analysis and measures to improve reliability must be performed before a subsea all-electric XT is launched;such measures are crucial to subsea safe production.A fault-tolerant control system was developed in this paper to improve the reliability of XT.A dual-factor degradation model for electrical control system components was proposed to improve the evaluation accuracy,and the reliability of the control system was analyzed based on the Markov model.The influences of the common cause failure and the failure rate in key components on the reliability and availability of the control system were studied.The impacts of mean time to repair and incomplete repair strategy on the availability of the control system were also investigated.Research results show the key factors that affect system reliability,and a specific method to improve the reliability and availability of the control system was given.This reliability analysis method for the control system could be applied to general all-electric subsea control systems to guide their safe production.
文摘Petri net has been used in system modeling and analyzing in many practical systems, but the system reliability has never been considered before, that is, system modeling and analysis were done based on supposing that there were no faults and no need to repair in system resources (equipment). Actually, a practical system is often at fault and needs repairs, so Petri net model does not really represent the action of the system to a certain extent. In this paper, theory of reliability is introduced to Petri net, Petri net model of repairable system is built, and the analysis method of system model is given. The importance is illustrated by imitating a product system.
文摘In recent years, many software development organizations have been assessing and analyzing their software product’s reliability/quality and judging whether the software product is releasable by using Software Reliability Growth Models (SRGMs) at the final stage of software development. The usage of SRGMs originates in the advantage that various reliability analysis results based on the SRGMs can be acquired easily. However, it is very difficult for general software project managers to grasp the achievement level of reliability/quality based on its analysis results because some sort of professional knowledge is required in order to understand the information on the attainment progress of software product’s reliability/quality. Moreover, it is also difficult for software project managers and inspectors who do not deeply comprehend the details of their project to evaluate the degree of software reliability and quality, if they assess it without grasping the live development situation and only see the documents submitted from their staff. In this paper, we propose a new analysis concept for assessing the software product’s reliability/quality, and illustrate the output results obtained by a tool, the SafeMan.
基金Supports provided by Aviation Basic Science Foundation(00B53010)Aerospace Science Foundation(N3CH0502)Shaanxi Province Natural Science Foundation(N3CS0501)are gratefully appreciated.
文摘Reliability analysis methods based on the linear damage accumulation law (LDAL) and load-life interference model are studied in this paper. According to the equal probability rule, the equivalent loads are derived, and the reliability analysis method based on load-life interference model and recurrence formula is constructed. In conjunction with finite element analysis (FEA) program, the reliability of an aero engine turbine disk under low cycle fatigue (LCF) condition has been analyzed. The results show the turbine disk is safety and the above reliability analysis methods are feasible.
