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Global Ensemble Weather Prediction from a Deep Learning–Based Model(Pangu-Weather)with the Initial Condition Perturbations of CMA-GEPS
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作者 Xin LIU Jing CHEN +6 位作者 Yuejian ZHU Yongzhu LIU Fajing CHEN Zhenhua HUO Fei PENG Yanan MA Yuhang GONG 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 2025年第8期1636-1660,共25页
Pangu-Weather(PGW),trained with deep learning–based methods(DL-based model),shows significant potential for global medium-range weather forecasting.However,the interpretability and trustworthiness of global medium-ra... Pangu-Weather(PGW),trained with deep learning–based methods(DL-based model),shows significant potential for global medium-range weather forecasting.However,the interpretability and trustworthiness of global medium-range DLbased models raise many concerns.This study uses the singular vector(SV)initial condition(IC)perturbations of the China Meteorological Administration's Global Ensemble Prediction System(CMA-GEPS)as inputs of PGW for global ensemble prediction(PGW-GEPS)to investigate the ensemble forecast sensitivity of DL-based models to the IC errors.Meanwhile,the CMA-GEPS forecasts serve as benchmarks for comparison and verification.The spatial structures and prediction performance of PGW-GEPS are discussed and compared to CMA-GEPS based on seasonal ensemble experiments.The results show that the ensemble mean and dispersion of PGW-GEPS are similar to those of CMA-GEPS in the medium range but with smoother forecasts.Meanwhile,PGW-GEPS is sensitive to the SV IC perturbations.Specifically,PGWGEPS can generate realistic ensemble spread beyond the sub-synoptic scale(wavenumbers≤64)with SV IC perturbations.However,PGW's kinetic energy is significantly reduced at the sub-synoptic scale,leading to error growth behavior inconsistent with CMA-GEPS at that scale.Thus,this behavior indicates that the effective resolution of PGW-GEPS is beyond the sub-synoptic scale and is limited to predicting mesoscale atmospheric motions.In terms of the global mediumrange ensemble prediction performance,the probability prediction skill of PGW-GEPS is comparable to CMA-GEPS in the extratropic when they use the same IC perturbations.That means that PGW has a general ability to provide skillful global medium-range forecasts with different ICs from numerical weather prediction. 展开更多
关键词 deep learning ensemble prediction forecast uncertainty initial condition perturbations CMA-GEPS Pangu-Weather
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Thermoporoelastic stress perturbations from hydraulic fracturing and thermal depletion in enhanced geothermal systems(EGS)and implications for fault reactivation and seismicity
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作者 Mengke An Rui Huang +2 位作者 Derek Elsworth Fengshou Zhang Egor Dontsov 《Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering》 2025年第5期2893-2903,共11页
Hydraulic fracturing then fluid circulation in enhanced geothermal system(EGS)reservoirs have been shown to induce seismicity remote from the stimulation-potentially generated by the distal projection of thermoporoela... Hydraulic fracturing then fluid circulation in enhanced geothermal system(EGS)reservoirs have been shown to induce seismicity remote from the stimulation-potentially generated by the distal projection of thermoporoelastic stresses.We explore this phenomenon by evaluating stress perturbations resulting from stimulation of a single stage of hydraulic fracturing that is followed by thermal depletion of a prismatic zone adjacent to the hydraulic fracture.We use Coulomb failure stress to assess the effect of resulting stress perturbations on instability on adjacent critically-stressed faults.Results show that hydraulic fracturing in a single stage is capable of creating stress perturbations at distances to 1000 m that reach 10^(-5)-10^(-4)MPa.At a closer distance,the magnitude of stress perturbations increases even further.The stress perturbation induced by temperature depletion could also reach 10^(-3)-10^(-2)MPa within 1000 m-much higher than that by hydraulic fracturing.Considering that a critical change in Coulomb failure stress for fault instability is 10^(-2)MPa,a single stage of hydraulic fracturing and thermal drawdown are capable of reactivating critically-stressed faults at distances within 200 m and 1000 m,respectively.These results have important implications for understanding the distribution and magnitudes of stress perturbations driven by thermoporoelastic effects and the associated seismicity during the simulation and early production of EGS reservoirs. 展开更多
关键词 Thermoporoelastic stress perturbations Hot-dry rock Enhanced geothermal system Hydraulic fracturing Thermal depletion Fault instability
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Influence of 3D helical magnetic perturbations on runaway electron generation in J-TEXT tokamak
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作者 Wei YAN Guinan ZOU +22 位作者 Zhongyong CHEN You LI Jiangang FANG Zhifang LIN Zhonghe JIANG Nengchao WANG Bo RAO Yangbo LI Zhengkang REN Chuanxu ZHAO Yu ZHONG Fanxi LIU Yinlong YU Zisen NIE Xun ZHOU Yuan SHENG Yuwei SUN Song ZHOU Xiaoqing ZHANG Zhoujun YANG Zhipeng CHEN Yonghua DING the J-TEXT Team 《Plasma Science and Technology》 2025年第3期36-44,共9页
A large number of runaway electrons(REs)generated during disruption can cause significant damage to next-generation large-scale tokamaks.The influence of three-dimensional(3D)helical magnetic perturbations on the supp... A large number of runaway electrons(REs)generated during disruption can cause significant damage to next-generation large-scale tokamaks.The influence of three-dimensional(3D)helical magnetic perturbations on the suppression of RE generation was explored using a set of 3D helical coils in J-TEXT tokamak,which can excite m/n=-2/2 helical magnetic perturbations.Experimental evidence shows that the-2/2 magnetic perturbations caused by the opposite coil current direct plasma toward the high-field side,simultaneously enhancing the magnetic fluctuations,which would enhance the radial loss of REs and even prevent RE generation.On the other hand,-2/2 magnetic perturbations can also reduce the cooling time during the disruption phase and generate a population of high-energy REs,which can interact with high-frequency magnetic fluctuations and in turn suppress RE generation.The critical helical coil current was found to correlate with electron density,requiring higher coil currents at higher densities.According to the statistical analysis of RE generation at different electron densities,the applied-2/2 magnetic perturbations can increase the magnetic fluctuations to the same level at lower electron densities,which can decrease the threshold electron density for RE suppression.This will be beneficial for RE mitigation in future large tokamak devices. 展开更多
关键词 3D helical magnetic perturbations runaway electron J-TEXT tokamak
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A Comparison of the Practical Predictability of Hail with Initial Perturbations of Climatological and Flow-Dependent Uncertainty in Ensembles
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作者 Xiaofei LI 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 2025年第7期1349-1364,共16页
The practical predictability of hail precipitation rates is significantly influenced by initial meteorological perturbations,stemming from various uncertainty sources.This study thoroughly assessed the predictability ... The practical predictability of hail precipitation rates is significantly influenced by initial meteorological perturbations,stemming from various uncertainty sources.This study thoroughly assessed the predictability of hail precipitation rates in both climatologically and flow-dependent perturbed ensembles(CEns and FEns).These ensembles incorporated initial meteorological uncertainties derived separately from two operational ensembles.Leveraging the Weather Research and Forecasting model,we conducted cloud-resolving simulations of an idealized hailstorm.The practical predictability of hail responded comparably to both climatological and flow-dependent uncertainties,which was revealed across the entire ensemble of 50 members.However,a notable difference emerged when comparing the peak hail precipitation rates among the top 10 and bottom 10 members.From a thermodynamic perspective,the primary source of uncertainty in hail precipitation lay in the significant variations in temperature stratification,particularly at-20℃and-40℃.On the microphysical front,perturbations within CEns generated greater uncertainty in the process of rainwater collection by hail,contributing significantly to the microphysical growth mechanisms of hail.Furthermore,the findings reveal a stronger dependency of hail precipitation uncertainty on thermodynamic perturbations compared to kinematic perturbations.These insights enhance the comprehension of the practical predictability of hail and contribute significantly to the understanding of ensemble forecasting for hail events. 展开更多
关键词 HAIL PREDICTABILITY UNCERTAINTY climatological perturbation flow-dependent perturbation
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Bridging the Gap Between Individual and Universal Adversarial Perturbations
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作者 Li Yanchun Li Zemin +2 位作者 Zeng Li Zhu Jiang Song Jingkuan 《China Communications》 2025年第9期244-263,共20页
In recent years,universal adversarial per-turbation(UAP)has attracted the attention of many re-searchers due to its good generalization.However,in order to generate an appropriate UAP,current methods usually require e... In recent years,universal adversarial per-turbation(UAP)has attracted the attention of many re-searchers due to its good generalization.However,in order to generate an appropriate UAP,current methods usually require either accessing the original dataset or meticulously constructing optimization functions and proxy datasets.In this paper,we aim to elimi-nate any dependency on proxy datasets and explore a method for generating Universal Adversarial Pertur-bations(UAP)on a single image.After revisiting re-search on UAP,we discovered that the key to gener-ating UAP lies in the accumulation of Individual Ad-versarial Perturbation(IAP)gradient,which prompted us to study the method of accumulating gradients from an IAP.We designed a simple and effective process to generate UAP,which only includes three steps:pre-cessing,generating an IAP and scaling the perturba-tions.Through our proposed process,any IAP gener-ated on an image can be constructed into a UAP with comparable performance,indicating that UAP can be generated free of data.Extensive experiments on var-ious classifiers and attack approaches demonstrate the superiority of our method on efficiency and aggressiveness. 展开更多
关键词 black-box attack data-independent transferability universal adversarial perturbation
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A New Method to Calculate Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations for Ensemble Forecasting
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作者 Junjie MA Wansuo DUAN +1 位作者 Zhuomin LIU Ye WANG 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 2025年第5期952-967,共16页
Orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations(O-CNOPs)have been used to generate ensemble forecasting members for achieving high forecasting skill of high-impact weather and climate events.However,highly effi... Orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations(O-CNOPs)have been used to generate ensemble forecasting members for achieving high forecasting skill of high-impact weather and climate events.However,highly efficient calculations for O-CNOPs are still challenging in the field of ensemble forecasting.In this study,we combine a gradient-based iterative idea with the Gram‒Schmidt orthogonalization,and propose an iterative optimization method to compute O-CNOPs.This method is different from the original sequential optimization method,and allows parallel computations of O-CNOPs,thus saving a large amount of computational time.We evaluate this method by using the Lorenz-96 model on the basis of the ensemble forecasting ability achieved and on the time consumed for computing O-CNOPs.The results demonstrate that the parallel iterative method causes O-CNOPs to yield reliable ensemble members and to achieve ensemble forecasting skills similar to or even slightly higher than those produced by the sequential method.Moreover,the parallel method significantly reduces the computational time for O-CNOPs.Therefore,the parallel iterative method provides a highly effective and efficient approach for calculating O-CNOPs for ensemble forecasts.Expectedly,it can play an important role in the application of the O-CNOPs to realistic ensemble forecasts for high-impact weather and climate events. 展开更多
关键词 initial uncertainty conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation optimization method ensemble forecasting
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Toroidal torques due to n=1 magnetic perturbations in ITER baseline scenario
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作者 Jingwei LI Li LI +5 位作者 Yueqiang LIU Yunfeng LIANG Yanfei WANG Lu TIAN Zhongqing LIU Fangchuan ZHONG 《Plasma Science and Technology》 2025年第1期39-51,共13页
Toroidal torques,generated by the resonant magnetic perturbation(RMP)and acting on the plasma column,are numerically systematically investigated for an ITER baseline scenario.The neoclassical toroidal viscosity(NTV),i... Toroidal torques,generated by the resonant magnetic perturbation(RMP)and acting on the plasma column,are numerically systematically investigated for an ITER baseline scenario.The neoclassical toroidal viscosity(NTV),in particular the resonant portion,is found to provide the dominant contribution to the total toroidal torque under the slow plasma flow regime in ITER.While the electromagnetic torque always opposes the plasma flow,the toroidal torque associated with the Reynolds stress enhances the plasma flow independent of the flow direction.A peculiar double-peak structure for the net NTV torque is robustly computed for ITER,as the toroidal rotation frequency is scanned near the zero value.This structure is found to be ultimately due to a non-monotonic behavior of the wave-particle resonance integral(over the particle pitch angle)in the superbanana plateau NTV regime in ITER.These findings are qualitatively insensitive to variations of a range of factors including the wall resistivity,the plasma pedestal flow and the assumed frequency of the rotating RMP field. 展开更多
关键词 toroidal torques resonant magnetic perturbation fieds plasma flow ITER baseline scenario
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Volcanically Driven Terrestrial Environmental Perturbations during the Carnian Pluvial Episode in the Eastern Tethys
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作者 Naveed Ur RAHMAN XIAN Benzhong +4 位作者 FANG Linhao CHEN Sirui CHEN Peng Zaheen ULLAH WANG Pengyu 《Acta Geologica Sinica(English Edition)》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2024年第3期753-770,共18页
The Carnian Pluvial Episode(CPE)fingerprints global environmental perturbations and biological extinction on land and oceans and is potentially linked to the Wrangellia Large Igneous Province(LIP).However,the correlat... The Carnian Pluvial Episode(CPE)fingerprints global environmental perturbations and biological extinction on land and oceans and is potentially linked to the Wrangellia Large Igneous Province(LIP).However,the correlation between terrestrial environmental changes and Wrangellia volcanism in the Ordos Basin during the CPE remains poorly understood.Records of negative carbon isotopic excursions(NCIEs),mercury(Hg),Hg/TOC,and Hg enrichment factor(HgEF)from oil shales in a large-scale terrestrial Ordos Basin in the Eastern Tethys were correlated with marine and other terrestrial successions.The three significant NCIEs in the study section were consistently correlated with those in the CPE successions of Europe,the UK,and South and North China.The U-Pb geochronology indicates a Ladinian-Carnian age for the Chang 7 Member.A comprehensive overview of the geochronology,NCIE correlation,and previous bio-and chronostratigraphic frameworks shows that the Ladinian-Carnian boundary is located in the lower part of Chang 7 in the Yishicun section.HgEF may be a more reliable proxy for tracing volcanic eruptions than the Hg/TOC ratio because the accumulation rates of TOC content largely vary in terrestrial and marine successions.The records of Hg,Hg/TOC,HgEF,and NCIEs in the Ordos Basin aligned with Carnian successions worldwide and were marked by similar anomalies,indicating a global response to the Wrangellia LIP during the CPE.Anoxia,a warm-humid climate,enhancement of detrital input,and NCIEs are synchronous with the CPE interval in the Ordos Basin,which suggests that the CPE combined with the regional Qinling Orogeny should dominate the enhanced rate of terrigenous input and paleoenvironmental evolution in the Ordos Basin. 展开更多
关键词 Chang 7 Member oil shale Carnian Pluvial Episode VOLCANISM environmental perturbations
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Massless Dirac perturbations of black holes in f(Q)gravity:quasinormal modes and a weak deflection angle
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作者 Ahmad Al-Badawi Sohan Kumar Jha 《Communications in Theoretical Physics》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2024年第9期73-82,共10页
This article considers a static and spherical black hole(BH)in f(Q)gravity.f(Q)gravity is the extension of symmetric teleparallel general relativity,where both curvature and torsion are vanishing and gravity is descri... This article considers a static and spherical black hole(BH)in f(Q)gravity.f(Q)gravity is the extension of symmetric teleparallel general relativity,where both curvature and torsion are vanishing and gravity is described by nonmetricity.In this study,we investigate the possible implications of quasinormal mode(QNM)modified Hawking spectra and deflection angles generated by the model.The Wentzel–Kramers–Brillouin method is used to solve the equations of motion for massless Dirac perturbation fields and explore the impact of the nonmetricity parameter(Q_(0)).Based on the QNM computation,we can ensure that the BH is stable against massless Dirac perturbations and as Q_(0)increases the oscillatory frequency of the mode decreases.We then discuss the weak deflection angle in the weak field limit approximation.We compute the deflection angle up to the fourth order of approximation and show how the nonmetricity parameter affects it.We find that the Q_(0)parameter reduces the deflection angle. 展开更多
关键词 black holes in f(Q)gravity massless Dirac perturbations quasinormal modes deflection angle
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A proteomic landscape of pharmacologic perturbations for functional relevance
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作者 Zhiwei Liu Shangwen Jiang +8 位作者 Bingbing Hao Shuyu Xie Yingluo Liu Yuqi Huang Heng Xu Cheng Luo Min Huang Minjia Tan Jun-Yu Xu 《Journal of Pharmaceutical Analysis》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2024年第1期128-139,共12页
Pharmacological perturbation studies based on protein-level signatures are fundamental for drug discovery. In the present study, we used a mass spectrometry (MS)-based proteomic platform to profile the whole proteome ... Pharmacological perturbation studies based on protein-level signatures are fundamental for drug discovery. In the present study, we used a mass spectrometry (MS)-based proteomic platform to profile the whole proteome of the breast cancer MCF7 cell line under stress induced by 78 bioactive compounds. The integrated analysis of perturbed signal abundance revealed the connectivity between phenotypic behaviors and molecular features in cancer cells. Our data showed functional relevance in exploring the novel pharmacological activity of phenolic xanthohumol, as well as the noncanonical targets of clinically approved tamoxifen, lovastatin, and their derivatives. Furthermore, the rational design of synergistic inhibition using a combination of histone methyltransferase and topoisomerase was identified based on their complementary drug fingerprints. This study provides rich resources for the proteomic landscape of drug responses for precision therapeutic medicine. 展开更多
关键词 PROTEOMICS Drug PERTURBATION Drug target Drug combination
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A generalization of Banach's lemma and its applications to perturbations of bounded linear operators
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作者 WANG Zi DING Jiu WANG Yu-wen 《Applied Mathematics(A Journal of Chinese Universities)》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第2期363-369,共7页
Let X be a Banach space and let P:X→X be a bounded linear operator.Using an algebraic inequality on the spectrum of P,we give a new sufficient condition that guarantees the existence of(I-P)^(-1) as a bounded linear ... Let X be a Banach space and let P:X→X be a bounded linear operator.Using an algebraic inequality on the spectrum of P,we give a new sufficient condition that guarantees the existence of(I-P)^(-1) as a bounded linear operator on X,and a bound on its spectral radius is also obtained.This generalizes the classic Banach lemma.We apply the result to the perturbation analysis of general bounded linear operators on X with commutative perturbations. 展开更多
关键词 Banach lemma spectral radius generalized inverse perturbation analysis
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Investigation on the roles of equilibrium toroidal rotation during edge-localized mode mitigated by resonant magnetic perturbations
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作者 董良康 陈少永 +3 位作者 牟茂淋 罗杨 秦晨晨 唐昌建 《Plasma Science and Technology》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2024年第1期16-33,共18页
The effects of equilibrium toroidal rotation during edge-localized mode(ELM)mitigated by resonant magnetic perturbation(RMP)are studied with the experimental equilibria of the EAST tokamak based on the four-field mode... The effects of equilibrium toroidal rotation during edge-localized mode(ELM)mitigated by resonant magnetic perturbation(RMP)are studied with the experimental equilibria of the EAST tokamak based on the four-field model in the BOUT++code.As the two main parameters to determine the toroidal rotation profiles,the rotation shear and magnitudes were separately scanned to investigate their roles in the impact of RMPs on peeling-ballooning(P-B)modes.On one hand,the results show that strong toroidal rotation shear is favorable for the enhancement of the self-generated E×B shearing rate<ω_(E×B)>with RMPs,leading to significant ELM mitigation with RMP in the stronger toroidal rotation shear region.On the other hand,toroidal rotation magnitudes may affect ELM mitigation by changing the penetration of the RMPs,more precisely the resonant components.RMPs can lead to a reduction in the pedestal energy loss by enhancing the multimode coupling in the turbulence transport phase.The shielding effects on RMPs increase with the toroidal rotation magnitude,leading to the enhancement of the multimode coupling with RMPs to be significantly weakened.Hence,the reduction in pedestal energy loss by RMPs decreased with the rotation magnitude.In brief,the results show that toroidal rotation plays a dual role in ELM mitigation with RMP by changing the shielding effects of plasma by rotation magnitude and affecting<ω_(E×B)>by rotation shear.In the high toroidal rotation region,toroidal rotation shear is usually strong and hence plays a dominant role in the influence of RMP on P-B modes,whereas in the low rotation region,toroidal rotation shear is weak and has negligible impact on P-B modes,and the rotation magnitude plays a dominant role in the influence of RMPs on the P-B modes by changing the field penetration.Therefore,the dual role of toroidal rotation leads to stronger ELM mitigation with RMP,which may be achieved both in the low toroidal rotation region and the relatively high rotation region that has strong rotational shear. 展开更多
关键词 edge-localized mode peeling–ballooning modes resonant magnetic perturbation toroidal rotation plasma response TOKAMAK
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Growth and Interactions of Multi-Source Perturbations in Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts
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作者 张璐 闵锦忠 +2 位作者 庄潇然 王世璋 魏莉青 《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 SCIE 2024年第2期118-131,共14页
This study investigated the growth of forecast errors stemming from initial conditions(ICs),lateral boundary conditions(LBCs),and model(MO)perturbations,as well as their interactions,by conducting seven 36 h convectio... This study investigated the growth of forecast errors stemming from initial conditions(ICs),lateral boundary conditions(LBCs),and model(MO)perturbations,as well as their interactions,by conducting seven 36 h convectionallowing ensemble forecast(CAEF)experiments.Two cases,one with strong-forcing(SF)and the other with weak-forcing(WF),occurred over the Yangtze-Huai River basin(YHRB)in East China,were selected to examine the sources of uncertainties associated with perturbation growth under varying forcing backgrounds and the influence of these backgrounds on growth.The perturbations exhibited distinct characteristics in terms of temporal evolution,spatial propagation,and vertical distribution under different forcing backgrounds,indicating a dependence between perturbation growth and forcing background.A comparison of the perturbation growth in different precipitation areas revealed that IC and LBC perturbations were significantly influenced by the location of precipitation in the SF case,while MO perturbations were more responsive to convection triggering and dominated in the WF case.The vertical distribution of perturbations showed that the sources of uncertainties and the performance of perturbations varied between SF and WF cases,with LBC perturbations displaying notable case dependence.Furthermore,the interactions between perturbations were considered by exploring the added values of different source perturbations.For the SF case,the added values of IC,LBC,and MO perturbations were reflected in different forecast periods and different source uncertainties,suggesting that the combination of multi-source perturbations can yield positive interactions.In the WF case,MO perturbations provided a more accurate estimation of uncertainties downstream of the Dabie Mountain and need to be prioritized in the research on perturbation development. 展开更多
关键词 convection-allowing ensemble forecast forcing background perturbation growth INTERACTIONS added value
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Impacts of New Implementing Strategies for Surface and Model Physics Perturbations in TREPS on Forecasts of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones 被引量:3
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作者 Xubin ZHANG 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2022年第11期1833-1858,共26页
To improve the ensemble prediction system of the tropical regional atmosphere model for the South China Sea(TREPS) in predicting landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs), the impacts of three new implementing strategies for... To improve the ensemble prediction system of the tropical regional atmosphere model for the South China Sea(TREPS) in predicting landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs), the impacts of three new implementing strategies for surface and model physics perturbations in TREPS were evaluated for 19 TCs making landfall in China during 2014–16. For sea surface temperature(SST) perturbations, spatially uncorrelated random perturbations were replaced with spatially correlated ones. The multiplier f, which is used to form perturbed tendency in the Stochastically Perturbed Parameterization Tendency(SPPT) scheme, was inflated in regions with evident convective activity(f-inflated SPPT). Lastly, the Stochastically Perturbed Parameterization(SPP) scheme with 14 perturbed parameters selected from the planetary boundary layer, surface layer, microphysics, and cumulus convection parameterizations was added. Overall, all these methods improved forecasts more significantly for non-intensifying than intensifying TCs. Compared with f-inflated SPPT,the spatially correlated SST perturbations generally showed comparable performance but were more(less) skillful for intensifying(non-intensifying) TCs. The advantages of the spatially correlated SST perturbations and f-inflated SPPT were mainly present in the deterministic guidance for both TC track and wind and in the probabilistic guidance for reliability of wind. For intensifying TCs, adding SPP led to mixed impacts with significant improvements in probability-matched mean of modest winds and in probabilistic forecasts of rainfall;while for non-intensifying TCs, adding SPP frequently led to positive impacts on the deterministic guidance for track, intensity, strong winds, and moderate rainfall and on the probabilistic guidance for wind and discrimination of rainfall. 展开更多
关键词 ensemble forecasting MESOSCALE TC forecasting surface perturbations perturbations for model physics
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Study on Multi-Scale Blending Initial Condition Perturbations for a Regional Ensemble Prediction System 被引量:36
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作者 ZHANG Hanbin CHEN Jing +2 位作者 ZHI Xiefei WANG Yi WANG Yanan 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2015年第8期1143-1155,共13页
An initial conditions (ICs) perturbation method was developed with the aim to improve an operational regional ensemble prediction system (REPS). Three issues were identified and investigated: (1) the impacts of... An initial conditions (ICs) perturbation method was developed with the aim to improve an operational regional ensemble prediction system (REPS). Three issues were identified and investigated: (1) the impacts of perturbation scale on the ensemble spread and forecast skill of the REPS; (2) the scale characteristic of the IC perturbations of the REPS; and (3) whether the REPS's skill could be improved by adding large-scale information to the IC perturbations. Numerical experiments were conducted to reveal the impact of perturbation scale on the ensemble spread and forecast skill. The scales of IC perturbations from the REPS and an operational global ensemble prediction system (GEPS) were analyzed. A "multi-scale blending" (MSB) IC perturbation scheme was developed, and the main findings can be summarized as follows: The growth rates of the ensemble spread of the REPS are sensitive to the scale of the IC perturbations; the ensemble forecast skills can benefit from large-scale perturbations; the global ensemble IC perturbations exhibit more power at larger scales, while the regional ensemble IC perturbations contain more power at smaller scales; the MSB method can generate IC perturbations by combining the small-scale component from the REPS and the large-scale component from the GEPS; the energy norm growth of the MSB-generated perturbations can be appropriate at all forecast lead times; and the MSB-based REPS shows higher skill than the original system, as determined by ensemble forecast verification. 展开更多
关键词 regional ensemble prediction system spectral analysis multi-scale blending initial condition perturbations
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Delay-range-dependent Stability Criterion for Interval Time-delay Systems with Nonlinear Perturbations 被引量:14
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作者 K.Ramakrishnan G.Ray 《International Journal of Automation and computing》 EI 2011年第1期141-146,共6页
In this paper, we consider the problem of robust stability for a class of linear systems with interval time-varying delay under nonlinear perturbations using Lyapunov-Krasovskii (LK) functional approach. By partitio... In this paper, we consider the problem of robust stability for a class of linear systems with interval time-varying delay under nonlinear perturbations using Lyapunov-Krasovskii (LK) functional approach. By partitioning the delay-interval into two segments of equal length, and evaluating the time-derivative of a candidate LK functional in each segment of the delay-interval, a less conservative delay-dependent stability criterion is developed to compute the maximum allowable bound for the delay-range within which the system under consideration remains asymptotically stable. In addition to the delay-bi-segmentation analysis procedure, the reduction in conservatism of the proposed delay-dependent stability criterion over recently reported results is also attributed to the fact that the time-derivative of the LK functional is bounded tightly using a newly proposed bounding condition without neglecting any useful terms in the delay-dependent stability analysis. The analysis, subsequently, yields a stable condition in convex linear matrix inequality (LMI) framework that can be solved non-conservatively at boundary conditions using standard numerical packages. Furthermore, as the number of decision variables involved in the proposed stability criterion is less, the criterion is computationally more effective. The effectiveness of the proposed stability criterion is validated through some standard numerical examples. 展开更多
关键词 Lyapunov-Krasovskii (LK) functional delay-range-dependent stability linear matrix inequality (LMI) interval timevarying delay nonlinear perturbations.
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Large Scale Perturbations in Extratropical Atmosphere-Part Ⅰ: On Rossby Waves 被引量:3
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作者 Y. L. McHall 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 1993年第2期169-180,共12页
This study reexamines the propagation mechanism and geostrophic property of the classical two-dimensional Rossby waves in a non-divergent barotropic atmosphere. It will be found that propagation of large scale atmosph... This study reexamines the propagation mechanism and geostrophic property of the classical two-dimensional Rossby waves in a non-divergent barotropic atmosphere. It will be found that propagation of large scale atmospheric waves depends crucially on horizontal divergence. A small Rossby number in Rossby waves is not sufficient for the waves to have a small ageostrophic component, because the two-dimensional classical Rossby waves do not manifest the geostrophic balance as good as observed in the atmosphere. 展开更多
关键词 TH Large Scale perturbations in Extratropical Atmosphere-Part On Rossby Waves
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GC/MS-based differential metabolic profiling of human peptic ulcer disease to study Helicobacter pylori-induced metabolic perturbations 被引量:2
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作者 GAGANJOT GUPTA DEEPAK BANSAL +5 位作者 ANSHULA SHARMA TAWSEEF AHMAD ATUL SACHDEV AJAZ AHMAD HAMED A.EL-SEREHY BALJINDER KAUR 《BIOCELL》 SCIE 2021年第5期1299-1311,共13页
Helicobacter pylori infection has been significantly linked to Peptic Ulcer Disease and Gastric Cancer.Metabolomic fingerprinting may offer a principal way of early diagnosis and to understand the molecular mechanism ... Helicobacter pylori infection has been significantly linked to Peptic Ulcer Disease and Gastric Cancer.Metabolomic fingerprinting may offer a principal way of early diagnosis and to understand the molecular mechanism of H.pylori-induced pathogenicity.The rationale of the study is to explore the underlying distinct metabolic mechanisms of H.pylori-induced PUD and to identify potential biomarkers for disease diagnosis and associated risks using Gas chromatography/mass spectrometry.GC/MS-based analytical method was used to compare metabolic profiles of healthy controls(N=20)and peptic ulcer patients(N=45).Acquired metabolomic data were analyzed by constructing a diagnostic model using principal component analysis and a non-parametric two-tailed paired Wilcoxon analysis to identify disease-specific metabolic biomarkers.A total of 75 low-molecular-weight endogenous metabolites were detected during comparative metabolomic analysis of PUD vs.healthy gut tissues,among which 16 metabolites are being proposed to be diagnostic markers of Human PUD.Perturbations related to amino acids,carbohydrates,fatty acids,organic acids,and sterol metabolism were significantly revealed during this differential metabolomic profiling.Results convincingly suggest that metabolic profiles can contribute immensely in early diagnosis of the disease and understanding molecular mechanisms of disease progression for predicting novel drug targets for prophylactic and anaphylactic measures. 展开更多
关键词 Peptic ulcer disease Gastric cancer Helicobacter pylori Metabolic profiling perturbations Stomach ulcers
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Large Scale Perturbations in Extratropical Atmosphere-Part Ⅱ: On Geostrophic Waves 被引量:2
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作者 Y.L. McHall 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 1993年第2期181-192,共12页
We have examined, in Part Ⅰ, the propagation mechanism and geostrophic property of classical Rossby waves in a non-divergent barotropic atmosphere. As we found that the non-divergent Rossby waves do not propagate in ... We have examined, in Part Ⅰ, the propagation mechanism and geostrophic property of classical Rossby waves in a non-divergent barotropic atmosphere. As we found that the non-divergent Rossby waves do not propagate in a hydrostatically equilibrium atmosphere, and do not manifest a good geostrophic property, an alternative large scale circulation pattern of geostrophic waves has been proposed (McHall, 1991a). The propagation mechanism and geostrophic property of these waves are examined in the present study. 展开更多
关键词 On Geostrophic Waves Large Scale perturbations in Extratropical Atmosphere-Part
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An Improved Robust Model Predictive Control Approach to Systems with Linear Fractional Transformation Perturbations 被引量:2
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作者 Peng-Yuan Zheng Yu-Geng Xi De-Wei Li 《International Journal of Automation and computing》 EI 2011年第1期134-140,共7页
In this paper, a robust model predictive control approach is proposed for a class of uncertain systems with time-varying, linear fractional transformation perturbations. By adopting a sequence of feedback control laws... In this paper, a robust model predictive control approach is proposed for a class of uncertain systems with time-varying, linear fractional transformation perturbations. By adopting a sequence of feedback control laws instead of a single one, the control performance can be improved and the region of attraction can be enlarged compared with the existing model predictive control (MPC) approaches. Moreover, a synthesis approach of MPC is developed to achieve high performance with lower on-line computational burden. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is verified by simulation examples. 展开更多
关键词 Robust model predictive control linear fractional transformation (LFT) perturbations linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) feedback model predictive control (MPC) framework sequence of feedback control laws.
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