In order to study the dynamics of uneven-aged stands of interior Douglas-fir, Pseudotsuga menzesii var.glouca (Mirb.) Franco in future, six permanent sample plots wer set up on the Knife Creek Block of the Alex Fraser...In order to study the dynamics of uneven-aged stands of interior Douglas-fir, Pseudotsuga menzesii var.glouca (Mirb.) Franco in future, six permanent sample plots wer set up on the Knife Creek Block of the Alex Fraser Researh Forcst of University of British Columbia. The measurements and observations for all living trees within theboundaries of a plot wer madc, including DBH(diameter at breast height), TTH(total tree height), height to lowest livingbranch, crown diameter, tree vigor, angle of lean, distance of lean, direction of lean and tree location. Based on the data,some stand characteristics of the plots were analyzed simply and preliminarily. Results showed that most of the interiortrees on the plots are ranged 10-20 cm in distribution of DBH class, and 2-6 m in distribution of rm class. Trees withdifferent fors, however, are distributed unevenly. The relationship between total tree height and diameter at breast heightfollows a quadratic distribution, Y=a+bX+cX2.展开更多
Pinus radiata(D.Don)dominates New Zealand's forestry industry,constituting 91%of plantations,and is among the world's most important plantation species.Given the socio-economic and environmental importance of ...Pinus radiata(D.Don)dominates New Zealand's forestry industry,constituting 91%of plantations,and is among the world's most important plantation species.Given the socio-economic and environmental importance of this species,it is important to have accurate and precise projections over time to make efficient decisions for forest management and greenfield investments in afforestation projects,especially for permanent carbon forests.Future projections of any natural resource systems rely on modeling;however,the acceleration of climate change makes future projections of yield less certain.These challenges also impact national expectations of the contribution planted forests will provide to address climate change and meet international commitments under the Paris Agreement.Using a large national-scale set of contemporary ground-measured data(2013–2023),this study investigates the performance of two growth models developed over 30 years ago that are widely used by NZ plantation growers:1)the Pumice Plateau Model 1988(PPM88)and 2)the 300-index(including a model variant of regional drift).Model simulations were made using the FORECASTER modeling suite with geographic boundaries to adjust for drift in space and time.Basal area(BA,m^(2)⋅ha^(-1))and volume(m^(3)⋅ha^(-1))were simulated,and standard errors and goodness-of-fit metrics calculated up to a typical rotation age of 30 years.Model residuals were then separated and analysed for the main plantation growing regions.The models overpredicted observed growth by between 6.8%and 16.2%,but model predictions and errors varied significantly between regions.The results of this study provided clear evidence of divergence between the outputs of both models and the measured data.Finally,this study suggests future measures to address challenges posed by these discrepancies that will provide better information for forest management and investment decisions in a changing climate.展开更多
Background： The minimum set of sub-models for simulating stand dynamics on an individual-tree basis consists of tree-level models for diameter increment and survival. Ingrowth model is a necessary third component in ...Background： The minimum set of sub-models for simulating stand dynamics on an individual-tree basis consists of tree-level models for diameter increment and survival. Ingrowth model is a necessary third component in uneven-aged management. The development of this type of model set needs data from permanent plots, in which all trees have been numbered and measured at regular intervals for diameter and survival. New trees passing the ingrowth limit should also be numbered and measured. Unfortunately, few datasets meet all these requirements. The trees may not have numbers or the length of the measurement interval varies. Ingrowth trees may not have been measured, or the number tags may have disappeared causing errors in tree identification. Methods： This article discussed and demonstrated the use of an optimization-based approach to individual-tree growth modelling, which makes it possible to utilize data sets having one or several of the above deficiencies. The idea is to estimate all parameters of the sub-models of a growth simulator simultaneously in such a way that, when simulation begins from the diameter distribution at the first measurement occasion, it yields a similar ending diameter distribution as measured in the second measurement occasion. The method was applied to Pinus patula permanent sample plot data from Kenya. In this dataset, trees were correctly numbered and identified but measurement interval varied from 1 to 13 years. Two simple regression approaches were used and compared to the optimization-based model recovery approach. Results： The optimization-based approach resulted in far more accurate simulations of stand basal area and number of surviving trees than the equations fitted through regression analysis. Conclusions： The optimization-based modelling approach can be recommended for growth modelling when the modelling data have been collected at irregular measurement intervals.展开更多
文摘In order to study the dynamics of uneven-aged stands of interior Douglas-fir, Pseudotsuga menzesii var.glouca (Mirb.) Franco in future, six permanent sample plots wer set up on the Knife Creek Block of the Alex Fraser Researh Forcst of University of British Columbia. The measurements and observations for all living trees within theboundaries of a plot wer madc, including DBH(diameter at breast height), TTH(total tree height), height to lowest livingbranch, crown diameter, tree vigor, angle of lean, distance of lean, direction of lean and tree location. Based on the data,some stand characteristics of the plots were analyzed simply and preliminarily. Results showed that most of the interiortrees on the plots are ranged 10-20 cm in distribution of DBH class, and 2-6 m in distribution of rm class. Trees withdifferent fors, however, are distributed unevenly. The relationship between total tree height and diameter at breast heightfollows a quadratic distribution, Y=a+bX+cX2.
基金funded by Scion's Strategic Science Investment Fund(SSIF)the Forest Growers Levy Trust(FGLT)through the Resilient Forests Programme(Task No.A89220)。
文摘Pinus radiata(D.Don)dominates New Zealand's forestry industry,constituting 91%of plantations,and is among the world's most important plantation species.Given the socio-economic and environmental importance of this species,it is important to have accurate and precise projections over time to make efficient decisions for forest management and greenfield investments in afforestation projects,especially for permanent carbon forests.Future projections of any natural resource systems rely on modeling;however,the acceleration of climate change makes future projections of yield less certain.These challenges also impact national expectations of the contribution planted forests will provide to address climate change and meet international commitments under the Paris Agreement.Using a large national-scale set of contemporary ground-measured data(2013–2023),this study investigates the performance of two growth models developed over 30 years ago that are widely used by NZ plantation growers:1)the Pumice Plateau Model 1988(PPM88)and 2)the 300-index(including a model variant of regional drift).Model simulations were made using the FORECASTER modeling suite with geographic boundaries to adjust for drift in space and time.Basal area(BA,m^(2)⋅ha^(-1))and volume(m^(3)⋅ha^(-1))were simulated,and standard errors and goodness-of-fit metrics calculated up to a typical rotation age of 30 years.Model residuals were then separated and analysed for the main plantation growing regions.The models overpredicted observed growth by between 6.8%and 16.2%,but model predictions and errors varied significantly between regions.The results of this study provided clear evidence of divergence between the outputs of both models and the measured data.Finally,this study suggests future measures to address challenges posed by these discrepancies that will provide better information for forest management and investment decisions in a changing climate.
文摘Background： The minimum set of sub-models for simulating stand dynamics on an individual-tree basis consists of tree-level models for diameter increment and survival. Ingrowth model is a necessary third component in uneven-aged management. The development of this type of model set needs data from permanent plots, in which all trees have been numbered and measured at regular intervals for diameter and survival. New trees passing the ingrowth limit should also be numbered and measured. Unfortunately, few datasets meet all these requirements. The trees may not have numbers or the length of the measurement interval varies. Ingrowth trees may not have been measured, or the number tags may have disappeared causing errors in tree identification. Methods： This article discussed and demonstrated the use of an optimization-based approach to individual-tree growth modelling, which makes it possible to utilize data sets having one or several of the above deficiencies. The idea is to estimate all parameters of the sub-models of a growth simulator simultaneously in such a way that, when simulation begins from the diameter distribution at the first measurement occasion, it yields a similar ending diameter distribution as measured in the second measurement occasion. The method was applied to Pinus patula permanent sample plot data from Kenya. In this dataset, trees were correctly numbered and identified but measurement interval varied from 1 to 13 years. Two simple regression approaches were used and compared to the optimization-based model recovery approach. Results： The optimization-based approach resulted in far more accurate simulations of stand basal area and number of surviving trees than the equations fitted through regression analysis. Conclusions： The optimization-based modelling approach can be recommended for growth modelling when the modelling data have been collected at irregular measurement intervals.
