For modern stealth aircraft,it is important to analyze the influence of Radar Cross Section(RCS)peak exposure on penetration for guiding stealth design and penetration trajectory planning,which needs to reflect the RC...For modern stealth aircraft,it is important to analyze the influence of Radar Cross Section(RCS)peak exposure on penetration for guiding stealth design and penetration trajectory planning,which needs to reflect the RCS statistical uncertainty and the RCS difference with the change of incident angle.Based on the RCS characteristics of typical stealth aircraft,this paper established a simplified RCS dynamic fluctuation statistical model with the parameters log mean and log standard deviation.According to the detection probability algorithm in radar signal processing field,this paper built the algorithm of radar detection probability based on the RCS dynamic fluctuation statistical model.The analysis of examples concluded that the key to successful penetration is to shorten the RCS peak exposure time,which can be reduced by decreasing the RCS peak width or increasing velocity.Based on the conclusion,this paper proposed the method of turning maneuvering to reduce RCS peak exposure time dramatically.展开更多
With the increase in the power receiving proportion and an insufficient peak regulation capacity of the local units, the receiving-end power grid struggles to achieve peak regulation in valley time. To solve this prob...With the increase in the power receiving proportion and an insufficient peak regulation capacity of the local units, the receiving-end power grid struggles to achieve peak regulation in valley time. To solve this problem while considering the potential of the large-scale charge load of electric vehicles(EVs), an aggregator-based demand response(DR) mechanism for EVs that are participating in the peak regulation in valley time is proposed in this study. In this aggregator-based DR mechanism, the profits for the power grid’s operation and the participation willingness of the EV owners are considered. Based on the characteristics of the EV charging process and the day-ahead unit generation scheduling, a rolling unit commitment model with the DR is established to maximize the social welfare. In addition, to improve the efficiency of the optimization problem solving process and to achieve communication between the independent system operator(ISO) and the aggregators, the clustering algorithm is utilized to extract typical EV charging patterns. Finally, the feasibility and benefits of the aggregator-based DR mechanism for saving the costs and reducing the peak-valley difference of the receiving-end power grid are verified through case studies.展开更多
Electric vehicle(EV)is an ideal solution to resolve the carbon emission issue and the fossil fuels scarcity problem in the future.However,a large number of EVs will be concentrated on charging during the valley hours ...Electric vehicle(EV)is an ideal solution to resolve the carbon emission issue and the fossil fuels scarcity problem in the future.However,a large number of EVs will be concentrated on charging during the valley hours leading to new load peaks under the guidance of static time-of-use tariff.Therefore,this paper proposes a dynamic time-of-use tariff mechanism,which redefines the peak and valley time periods according to the predicted loads using the fuzzy C-mean(FCM)clustering algorithm,and then dynamically adjusts the peak and valley tariffs according to the actual load of each time period.Based on the proposed tariff mechanism,an EV charging optimization model with the lowest cost to the users and the lowest variance of the grid-side load as the objective function is established.Then,a weight selection principle with an equal loss rate of the two objectives is proposed to transform the multi-objective optimization problem into a single-objective optimization problem.Finally,the EV charging load optimization model under three tariff strategies is set up and solved with the mathematical solver GROUBI.The results show that the EV charging load optimization strategy based on the dynamic time-of-use tariff can better balance the benefits between charging stations and users under different numbers and proportions of EVs connected to the grid,and can effectively reduce the grid load variance and improve the grid load curve.展开更多
The heat pulse signal is analyzed in a new way with the goals of clarifying the relationships between the variables in the heat transfer problem and simplifying the procedure for calculating sediment-water interface f...The heat pulse signal is analyzed in a new way with the goals of clarifying the relationships between the variables in the heat transfer problem and simplifying the procedure for calculating sediment-water interface fluxes J. Only three parameters x0 λand pc l are needed to calculate J by the heat pulse data for this analysis method.The results show that there is a curvilinear relationship between the peak temperature arrival time and sediment-water interface fluxes and there exists a simple linear relationship between sediment-water interface fluxes and the natural log of the ratio of the temperature increase downstream from the line heat source to the temperature increase upstream from the heat source.The simplicity of this relationship makes the heat pulse sensors an attractive option for measuring soil water fluxes.展开更多
The differences of the microstructure and mechanical property between metal mould and sand mould cast Mg-10Gd-3Y-Zr alloy were investigated both under as-cast condition and after solution heat treatment. In the as-cas...The differences of the microstructure and mechanical property between metal mould and sand mould cast Mg-10Gd-3Y-Zr alloy were investigated both under as-cast condition and after solution heat treatment. In the as-cast specimens, the microstructure is similar and composed of a-Mg solid solution and eutectic compound of a-Mg＋ Mg24（Gd,Y）5; whereas the grain size using metal mould and sand mould is 27 pm and 71 IJm, respectively. The eutectic compound of metal mould cast alloy was completely dissolved after solution treated at 500℃ for 8 h, however it needs higher temperature （525 ℃） and longer time （12 h） to achieve the absolute dissolving under sand mould condition. In contrast to metal mould, the peak time of sand mould alloy aged at 225℃ and 250℃ of was advanced by 4 h and 6 h, respectively. The precipitation reaction sequence in sand mould cast Mg-10Gd-3Y-Zr alloy during isothermal ageing at 250℃ follows S.S.S.S.→β（D010）→β′（cboc）→β1（fcc）→β（fcc）, which is similar to that in the alloy cast using metal mould.展开更多
Background:One-hour postprandial hyperglycemia is associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease.Physical activity(PA)has short-term beneficial effects on post-meal glucose response.This ...Background:One-hour postprandial hyperglycemia is associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease.Physical activity(PA)has short-term beneficial effects on post-meal glucose response.This study compared the oral glucose tolerance test results of 3 groups of people with habitually different levels of PA.Methods:Thirty-one adults without diabetes(age 25.9±6.6 years;body mass index 23.8±3.8 kg/m^2;mean±SD)were recruited and divided into 3 groups based on self-reported PA volume and intensity:low activity<30 min/day of moderate-intensity activity(n=11),moderately active≥30 min/day of moderate-intensity PA(n=10),and very active≥60 min/day of PA at high intensity(n=10).Participants completed an oral glucose tolerance test(50 g glucose)with capillary blood samples obtained at baseline,15 min,30 min,45 min,60 min,90 min,and 120 min post-ingestion.Results:There were no significant differences between groups for age or body fat percentage or glycated hemoglobin(p>0.05).The groups were significantly different in terms of baseline glucose level(p=0.003)and,marginally,for gender(p=0.053)and BMI(p=0.050).There was a statistically significant effect of PA on the 1-h postprandial glucose results(p=0.029),with differences between very active and low activity groups(p=0.008)but not between the moderately active and low activity groups(p=0.360),even when baseline glucose level and gender differences were accounted for.For incremental area under the curve there was no significant effect of activity group once gender and body fat percentage had been accounted for(p=0.401).Those in the low activity group took 15 min longer to reach peak glucose level than those in the very active group(p=0.012).Conclusion:The results suggest that high levels of PA have a beneficial effect on postprandial blood glucose profiles when compared to low and moderate levels of activity.展开更多
The Three Gorges Region(TGR),located at the lower reach of the Upper Yangtze River Basin(UYRB) in China,suffers from heavy rainstorm frequently.The runoff generated from TGR composes an important part of the total flo...The Three Gorges Region(TGR),located at the lower reach of the Upper Yangtze River Basin(UYRB) in China,suffers from heavy rainstorm frequently.The runoff generated from TGR composes an important part of the total flood at the famous Three Gorges Reservoir(TGRe).During the severe flood period in 1954,for example,the water from TGR accounted for up to 13.2% of the 30-days maximum flood volume of the UYRB.Considering the short and steep tributaries with rapid concentration,the regional lateral inflow(RLI) may induce more serious effect on the flood peak of the TGRe than the volume.However,hydrological data of the sparse gauge stations is too insufficient to evaluate the effect of RLI.This paper studied the impact by analyzing 880 flood events during 1956-2000.By comparing the observed hydrograph and simulated hydrograph with HEC-RAS software regarding no RLI,the effect of RLI on flood peak value and timing properties was identified and quantified.The variability of this effect among floods of different magnitudes was also analyzed.To evaluate the analysis uncertainty associated with the parameter of roughness coefficient,four sets of roughness coefficients from different research groups were employed in this study.The results showed that RLI contributes discharge of 3524 m3/s to flood peaks of the TGRe on average,with the contribution ratio of 15.9%.RLI contributes 12000 m3/s to the flood peaks larger than 50000 m3/s on average,with 25000 m3/s as its upper bound,while the contribution ratio can reach up to 50%,with an average of 20%.The variability of this effect is great among different events.Statistical analysis showed that to larger flood peak of the TGRe,RLI contributes more discharge with higher variability,and the contribution ratio and its variability are slightly larger,and events with higher contribution ratio occur more frequently.RLI can reshape the hydrograph,leading to earlier appearance of flood peak.This effect and its variability increase with the contribution ratio.This study has revealed that RLI plays an important role in large flood peak of the TGRe,which calls for more reliable flood forecasting methods to prolong the forecast lead time and improve the accuracy for the safety of the Three Gorges Dam and the protection of its lower reaches during severe flood disaster period.展开更多
We report on the properties of strong pulses from PSR B0656＋14 by analyzing the data obtained using the Urumqi 25-m radio telescope at 1540 MHz from August 2007 to September 2010.In 44 h of observational data,a total...We report on the properties of strong pulses from PSR B0656＋14 by analyzing the data obtained using the Urumqi 25-m radio telescope at 1540 MHz from August 2007 to September 2010.In 44 h of observational data,a total of 67 pulses with signal-to-noise ratios above a 5σthreshold were detected.The peak flux densities of these pulses are 58 to 194 times that of the average profile,and their pulse energies are 3 to 68 times that of the average pulse.These pulses are clustered around phases about 5-ahead of the peak of the average profile.Compared with the width of the average profile,they are relatively narrow,with the full widths at half-maximum ranging from 0.28 ° to 1.78 °.The distribution of pulse-energies follows a lognormal distribution.These sporadic strong pulses detected from PSR B0656＋14 have different characteristics from both typical giant pulses and its regular pulses.展开更多
Since the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan City in December of 2019,numerous model predictions on the COVID-19 epidemics in Wuhan and other parts of China have been reported.These model predictions have shown a wide range o...Since the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan City in December of 2019,numerous model predictions on the COVID-19 epidemics in Wuhan and other parts of China have been reported.These model predictions have shown a wide range of variations.In our study,we demonstrate that nonidentifiability in model calibrations using the confirmed-case data is the main reason for such wide variations.Using the Akaike Information Criterion(AIC)for model selection,we show that an SIR model performs much better than an SEIR model in representing the information contained in the confirmed-case data.This indicates that predictions using more complex models may not be more reliable compared to using a simpler model.We present our model predictions for the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan after the lockdown and quarantine of the city on January 23,2020.We also report our results of modeling the impacts of the strict quarantine measures undertaken in the city after February 7 on the time course of the epidemic,and modeling the potential of a second outbreak after the return-to-work in the city.展开更多
Mathematical models have wide applications in studying COVID-19 epidemic transmission dynamics,however,most mathematical models do not take into account the heterogeneity of susceptible populations and the non-exponen...Mathematical models have wide applications in studying COVID-19 epidemic transmission dynamics,however,most mathematical models do not take into account the heterogeneity of susceptible populations and the non-exponential distribution infectious period.This paper attempts to investigate whether non-exponentially distributed infectious period can better characterize the transmission process in heterogeneous susceptible populations and how it impacts the control strategies.For this purpose,we establish two COVID-19 epidemic models with heterogeneous susceptible populations based on different assumptions for infectious period:the first one is an exponential distribution model(EDM),and the other one is a gamma distribution model(GDM);explicit formula of peak time of the EDM is presented via our analytical approach.By data fitting with the COVID-19(Omicron)epidemic in Spain and Norway,it seems that Spain is more suitable for EDM while Norway is more suitable for GDM.Finally,we use EDM and GDM to evaluate the impaction of control strategies such as reduction of transmission rates,and increase of primary course rate(PCR)and booster dose rate(BDR).展开更多
Background Previous studies have suggested that nomogram can simplize complicated calculations of several varibles. A simple nomogram was constructed to estimate absorption rate coefficient (k a) by using the peak t...Background Previous studies have suggested that nomogram can simplize complicated calculations of several varibles. A simple nomogram was constructed to estimate absorption rate coefficient (k a) by using the peak time (t peak ) and the elimination rate coefficient (k e) of drugs administered orally Methods The nomogram was based on the plasma concentration-time (C-T) curve equation and the function relation between t peak , k a and k e A mathematical analysis was presented for the construction of single chart nomogram To check the degree of accuracy of the developed nomogram, we used it to analyze retrospective profiles of 46 drugs and compared the k a values obtained graphically and those calculated by numerically solving the descriptive equation In addition, we measured the carbocisteine concentration of 18 healthy volunteers by HPLC with fluorescence detection To analyze performance error, the measured carbocisteine concentrations were compared with predicted concentrations by the k a obtained from the nomograms along with the other pharmacokinetic parameters Results The estimated of k a values from nomograms were in very close proximity with the numerical values The performance error was as follows: median performance error (MDPE) and median absolute performance error (MDAPE) were 1 32% and 18 15%, respectively Conclusions The developed nomogram is accurate and reliable The size of performance error meets the demand of clinical pharmacokinetics Therefore, the nomograms can offer another convenient and easy method for rational individualized dosage regimens展开更多
文摘For modern stealth aircraft,it is important to analyze the influence of Radar Cross Section(RCS)peak exposure on penetration for guiding stealth design and penetration trajectory planning,which needs to reflect the RCS statistical uncertainty and the RCS difference with the change of incident angle.Based on the RCS characteristics of typical stealth aircraft,this paper established a simplified RCS dynamic fluctuation statistical model with the parameters log mean and log standard deviation.According to the detection probability algorithm in radar signal processing field,this paper built the algorithm of radar detection probability based on the RCS dynamic fluctuation statistical model.The analysis of examples concluded that the key to successful penetration is to shorten the RCS peak exposure time,which can be reduced by decreasing the RCS peak width or increasing velocity.Based on the conclusion,this paper proposed the method of turning maneuvering to reduce RCS peak exposure time dramatically.
基金supported by the Science and Technology Project from the State Grid Shanghai Municipal Electric Power Company of China (52094019006U)the Shanghai Rising-Star Program (18QB1400200)。
文摘With the increase in the power receiving proportion and an insufficient peak regulation capacity of the local units, the receiving-end power grid struggles to achieve peak regulation in valley time. To solve this problem while considering the potential of the large-scale charge load of electric vehicles(EVs), an aggregator-based demand response(DR) mechanism for EVs that are participating in the peak regulation in valley time is proposed in this study. In this aggregator-based DR mechanism, the profits for the power grid’s operation and the participation willingness of the EV owners are considered. Based on the characteristics of the EV charging process and the day-ahead unit generation scheduling, a rolling unit commitment model with the DR is established to maximize the social welfare. In addition, to improve the efficiency of the optimization problem solving process and to achieve communication between the independent system operator(ISO) and the aggregators, the clustering algorithm is utilized to extract typical EV charging patterns. Finally, the feasibility and benefits of the aggregator-based DR mechanism for saving the costs and reducing the peak-valley difference of the receiving-end power grid are verified through case studies.
基金Key R&D Program of Tianjin,China(No.20YFYSGX00060).
文摘Electric vehicle(EV)is an ideal solution to resolve the carbon emission issue and the fossil fuels scarcity problem in the future.However,a large number of EVs will be concentrated on charging during the valley hours leading to new load peaks under the guidance of static time-of-use tariff.Therefore,this paper proposes a dynamic time-of-use tariff mechanism,which redefines the peak and valley time periods according to the predicted loads using the fuzzy C-mean(FCM)clustering algorithm,and then dynamically adjusts the peak and valley tariffs according to the actual load of each time period.Based on the proposed tariff mechanism,an EV charging optimization model with the lowest cost to the users and the lowest variance of the grid-side load as the objective function is established.Then,a weight selection principle with an equal loss rate of the two objectives is proposed to transform the multi-objective optimization problem into a single-objective optimization problem.Finally,the EV charging load optimization model under three tariff strategies is set up and solved with the mathematical solver GROUBI.The results show that the EV charging load optimization strategy based on the dynamic time-of-use tariff can better balance the benefits between charging stations and users under different numbers and proportions of EVs connected to the grid,and can effectively reduce the grid load variance and improve the grid load curve.
基金The Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions
文摘The heat pulse signal is analyzed in a new way with the goals of clarifying the relationships between the variables in the heat transfer problem and simplifying the procedure for calculating sediment-water interface fluxes J. Only three parameters x0 λand pc l are needed to calculate J by the heat pulse data for this analysis method.The results show that there is a curvilinear relationship between the peak temperature arrival time and sediment-water interface fluxes and there exists a simple linear relationship between sediment-water interface fluxes and the natural log of the ratio of the temperature increase downstream from the line heat source to the temperature increase upstream from the heat source.The simplicity of this relationship makes the heat pulse sensors an attractive option for measuring soil water fluxes.
基金funded by the National Basic Research Program of China under contract No.2007CB613701National Key Technology R&D Program of China under contract No.2006BAE04B07-2Program of Shanghai Subject Chief Scientist under contract No.08XD14020
文摘The differences of the microstructure and mechanical property between metal mould and sand mould cast Mg-10Gd-3Y-Zr alloy were investigated both under as-cast condition and after solution heat treatment. In the as-cast specimens, the microstructure is similar and composed of a-Mg solid solution and eutectic compound of a-Mg＋ Mg24（Gd,Y）5; whereas the grain size using metal mould and sand mould is 27 pm and 71 IJm, respectively. The eutectic compound of metal mould cast alloy was completely dissolved after solution treated at 500℃ for 8 h, however it needs higher temperature （525 ℃） and longer time （12 h） to achieve the absolute dissolving under sand mould condition. In contrast to metal mould, the peak time of sand mould alloy aged at 225℃ and 250℃ of was advanced by 4 h and 6 h, respectively. The precipitation reaction sequence in sand mould cast Mg-10Gd-3Y-Zr alloy during isothermal ageing at 250℃ follows S.S.S.S.→β（D010）→β′（cboc）→β1（fcc）→β（fcc）, which is similar to that in the alloy cast using metal mould.
文摘Background:One-hour postprandial hyperglycemia is associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease.Physical activity(PA)has short-term beneficial effects on post-meal glucose response.This study compared the oral glucose tolerance test results of 3 groups of people with habitually different levels of PA.Methods:Thirty-one adults without diabetes(age 25.9±6.6 years;body mass index 23.8±3.8 kg/m^2;mean±SD)were recruited and divided into 3 groups based on self-reported PA volume and intensity:low activity<30 min/day of moderate-intensity activity(n=11),moderately active≥30 min/day of moderate-intensity PA(n=10),and very active≥60 min/day of PA at high intensity(n=10).Participants completed an oral glucose tolerance test(50 g glucose)with capillary blood samples obtained at baseline,15 min,30 min,45 min,60 min,90 min,and 120 min post-ingestion.Results:There were no significant differences between groups for age or body fat percentage or glycated hemoglobin(p>0.05).The groups were significantly different in terms of baseline glucose level(p=0.003)and,marginally,for gender(p=0.053)and BMI(p=0.050).There was a statistically significant effect of PA on the 1-h postprandial glucose results(p=0.029),with differences between very active and low activity groups(p=0.008)but not between the moderately active and low activity groups(p=0.360),even when baseline glucose level and gender differences were accounted for.For incremental area under the curve there was no significant effect of activity group once gender and body fat percentage had been accounted for(p=0.401).Those in the low activity group took 15 min longer to reach peak glucose level than those in the very active group(p=0.012).Conclusion:The results suggest that high levels of PA have a beneficial effect on postprandial blood glucose profiles when compared to low and moderate levels of activity.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China ("115" Program) (Grant No. 2008BAB29B09)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 50823005)
文摘The Three Gorges Region(TGR),located at the lower reach of the Upper Yangtze River Basin(UYRB) in China,suffers from heavy rainstorm frequently.The runoff generated from TGR composes an important part of the total flood at the famous Three Gorges Reservoir(TGRe).During the severe flood period in 1954,for example,the water from TGR accounted for up to 13.2% of the 30-days maximum flood volume of the UYRB.Considering the short and steep tributaries with rapid concentration,the regional lateral inflow(RLI) may induce more serious effect on the flood peak of the TGRe than the volume.However,hydrological data of the sparse gauge stations is too insufficient to evaluate the effect of RLI.This paper studied the impact by analyzing 880 flood events during 1956-2000.By comparing the observed hydrograph and simulated hydrograph with HEC-RAS software regarding no RLI,the effect of RLI on flood peak value and timing properties was identified and quantified.The variability of this effect among floods of different magnitudes was also analyzed.To evaluate the analysis uncertainty associated with the parameter of roughness coefficient,four sets of roughness coefficients from different research groups were employed in this study.The results showed that RLI contributes discharge of 3524 m3/s to flood peaks of the TGRe on average,with the contribution ratio of 15.9%.RLI contributes 12000 m3/s to the flood peaks larger than 50000 m3/s on average,with 25000 m3/s as its upper bound,while the contribution ratio can reach up to 50%,with an average of 20%.The variability of this effect is great among different events.Statistical analysis showed that to larger flood peak of the TGRe,RLI contributes more discharge with higher variability,and the contribution ratio and its variability are slightly larger,and events with higher contribution ratio occur more frequently.RLI can reshape the hydrograph,leading to earlier appearance of flood peak.This effect and its variability increase with the contribution ratio.This study has revealed that RLI plays an important role in large flood peak of the TGRe,which calls for more reliable flood forecasting methods to prolong the forecast lead time and improve the accuracy for the safety of the Three Gorges Dam and the protection of its lower reaches during severe flood disaster period.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.10973026)
文摘We report on the properties of strong pulses from PSR B0656＋14 by analyzing the data obtained using the Urumqi 25-m radio telescope at 1540 MHz from August 2007 to September 2010.In 44 h of observational data,a total of 67 pulses with signal-to-noise ratios above a 5σthreshold were detected.The peak flux densities of these pulses are 58 to 194 times that of the average profile,and their pulse energies are 3 to 68 times that of the average pulse.These pulses are clustered around phases about 5-ahead of the peak of the average profile.Compared with the width of the average profile,they are relatively narrow,with the full widths at half-maximum ranging from 0.28 ° to 1.78 °.The distribution of pulse-energies follows a lognormal distribution.These sporadic strong pulses detected from PSR B0656＋14 have different characteristics from both typical giant pulses and its regular pulses.
基金Research of MYL is supported in part by the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council(NSERC)of Canada and Canada Foundation for Innovation(CFI).
文摘Since the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan City in December of 2019,numerous model predictions on the COVID-19 epidemics in Wuhan and other parts of China have been reported.These model predictions have shown a wide range of variations.In our study,we demonstrate that nonidentifiability in model calibrations using the confirmed-case data is the main reason for such wide variations.Using the Akaike Information Criterion(AIC)for model selection,we show that an SIR model performs much better than an SEIR model in representing the information contained in the confirmed-case data.This indicates that predictions using more complex models may not be more reliable compared to using a simpler model.We present our model predictions for the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan after the lockdown and quarantine of the city on January 23,2020.We also report our results of modeling the impacts of the strict quarantine measures undertaken in the city after February 7 on the time course of the epidemic,and modeling the potential of a second outbreak after the return-to-work in the city.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(12271401,11871179,11771128,12171291)the Fund Program for the Scientific Activities of Selected Returned Overseas Professionals in Shanxi Province(20200001)the Fundamental Research Program of Shanxi Province(202103021224018).
文摘Mathematical models have wide applications in studying COVID-19 epidemic transmission dynamics,however,most mathematical models do not take into account the heterogeneity of susceptible populations and the non-exponential distribution infectious period.This paper attempts to investigate whether non-exponentially distributed infectious period can better characterize the transmission process in heterogeneous susceptible populations and how it impacts the control strategies.For this purpose,we establish two COVID-19 epidemic models with heterogeneous susceptible populations based on different assumptions for infectious period:the first one is an exponential distribution model(EDM),and the other one is a gamma distribution model(GDM);explicit formula of peak time of the EDM is presented via our analytical approach.By data fitting with the COVID-19(Omicron)epidemic in Spain and Norway,it seems that Spain is more suitable for EDM while Norway is more suitable for GDM.Finally,we use EDM and GDM to evaluate the impaction of control strategies such as reduction of transmission rates,and increase of primary course rate(PCR)and booster dose rate(BDR).
文摘Background Previous studies have suggested that nomogram can simplize complicated calculations of several varibles. A simple nomogram was constructed to estimate absorption rate coefficient (k a) by using the peak time (t peak ) and the elimination rate coefficient (k e) of drugs administered orally Methods The nomogram was based on the plasma concentration-time (C-T) curve equation and the function relation between t peak , k a and k e A mathematical analysis was presented for the construction of single chart nomogram To check the degree of accuracy of the developed nomogram, we used it to analyze retrospective profiles of 46 drugs and compared the k a values obtained graphically and those calculated by numerically solving the descriptive equation In addition, we measured the carbocisteine concentration of 18 healthy volunteers by HPLC with fluorescence detection To analyze performance error, the measured carbocisteine concentrations were compared with predicted concentrations by the k a obtained from the nomograms along with the other pharmacokinetic parameters Results The estimated of k a values from nomograms were in very close proximity with the numerical values The performance error was as follows: median performance error (MDPE) and median absolute performance error (MDAPE) were 1 32% and 18 15%, respectively Conclusions The developed nomogram is accurate and reliable The size of performance error meets the demand of clinical pharmacokinetics Therefore, the nomograms can offer another convenient and easy method for rational individualized dosage regimens
