Understanding water chemistry in karst regions is crucial for improving global water resource management and deepening our knowledge of the biogeochemical cycles shaping these sensitive environments.Despite advance-me...Understanding water chemistry in karst regions is crucial for improving global water resource management and deepening our knowledge of the biogeochemical cycles shaping these sensitive environments.Despite advance-ments in karst hydrology,significant gaps remain in long-term trends,underlying processes,and quantitative effects of environmental changes.This is especially true in areas like the Wujiang River(WJ)in China,where human activities such as reservoir construction and land use/cover changes have accelerated hydrochemical changes.We combined recent and historical monitoring data to provide a detailed analysis of the spatial and temporal characteristics,evolution,and controlling factors of major ions in WJ.These findings are important for local water management and contribute to global efforts to manage similar karst systems facing human-induced pressures.Our research shows clear seasonal differences in solute concentrations,with higher levels during the dry season.WJ’s water is rich in calcium,with Ca-HCO_(3) ion pairs being the most common.Reservoir monitor-ing stations show much higher levels of NO_(3)^(−)and SO_(4)^(2−)compared to river-type stations,likely due to longer hydraulic retention time and increased acid deposition.The study confirms the significant role of pH and water temperature in rock weathering processes.Land use/cover changes were identified as the primary drivers of solute variations(46.37%),followed by lithology(13.92%)and temperature(8.35%).Over the past two decades,in-tense carbonate weathering has been observed,especially during wet seasons.Among karstic provinces,Guizhou Province stands out with the highest ion concentrations,indicative of its extensive karst coverage and heightened weathering processes.展开更多
Effective conservation relies on robust assessments;however,the lack of waterbird data in the Yellow River Basin(YRB)has led to an underestimation of key habitat significance.This study addressed this gap by evaluatin...Effective conservation relies on robust assessments;however,the lack of waterbird data in the Yellow River Basin(YRB)has led to an underestimation of key habitat significance.This study addressed this gap by evaluating YRB wetland conservation importance using waterbirds as indicators and applying Ramsar,Important Bird Areas(IBA),and East Asian-Australasian Flyway(EAAF)criteria.We integrated coordinated surveys with citizen science data,creating a framework that tackles data deficiencies along the under-monitored Central Asian Flyway(CAF).Our analysis identified 75 priority wetlands,supporting 15 threatened species and 49 exceeding global/flyway 1%thresholds,highlighting the basin's biodiversity.We observed strong seasonal habitat use,with high-altitude wetlands vital for breeding and migration,and the Yellow River Delta providing year-round refuge.This research also provided data to refine Baer's Pochard population estimates.Alarmingly,one-third of the identified priority areas,primarily rivers and lakes,remain unprotected.To address this,we recommend systematic surveys,enhanced protected areas,OECMs,and targeted wetland restoration.This study underscores the YRB's role in regional conservation and provides essential data for adaptive management,particularly emphasizing the CAF's importance.展开更多
Typhoons are strong air–sea interactions that significantly affect the physical and biogeochemical processes of the upper ocean. Based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System-Carbon–Silicate–Nitrate Ecosystem coupled...Typhoons are strong air–sea interactions that significantly affect the physical and biogeochemical processes of the upper ocean. Based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System-Carbon–Silicate–Nitrate Ecosystem coupled model, the influence of Typhoon Bolaven(2012) on physical and ecological variables in the East China Sea and the underlying mechanisms were investigated. The results showed that the typhoon induced intense vertical mixing in the upper ocean,leading to sea surface cooling, increased salinity, nutrient concentrations, and phytoplankton blooms. Conversely, warming,reduced salinity, and decreased nutrient concentrations occurred in the subsurface layer. In the Yangtze River Estuary, the passage of typhoons effectively affected wind and current directions, shaping the dipole distribution patterns of the environmental elements. Diagnostic analysis indicated that tropical cyclone-induced horizontal advection is key in driving changes in both the physical and ecological variables within the estuary region. This study provides novel insights into the physical-ecological coupling processes and driving mechanisms governing oceanic environmental changes during typhoon events, particularly in the waters adjacent to the Yangtze River Estuary.展开更多
Summer rainfall in the Yangtze River basin(YRB)is favored by two key factors in the lower troposphere:the tropical anticyclonic anomaly over the western North Pacific and the extratropical northeasterly anomalies to t...Summer rainfall in the Yangtze River basin(YRB)is favored by two key factors in the lower troposphere:the tropical anticyclonic anomaly over the western North Pacific and the extratropical northeasterly anomalies to the north of the YRB.This study,however,found that approximately 46%of heavy rainfall events in the YRB occur when only one factor appears and the other is opposite signed.Accordingly,these heavy rainfall events can be categorized into two types:the extratropical northeasterly anomalies but tropical cyclonic anomaly(first unconventional type),and the tropical anticyclonic anomaly but extratropical southwesterly anomalies(second unconventional type).Anomalous water vapor convergence and upward motion exists for both types,but through different mechanisms.For the first type,the moisture convergence and upward motion are induced by a cyclonic anomaly over the YRB,which appears in the mid and lower troposphere and originates from the upstream region.For the second type,a mid-tropospheric cyclonic anomaly over Lake Baikal extends southward and results in southwesterly anomalies over the YRB,in conjunction with the tropical anticyclonic anomaly.The southwesterly anomalies transport water vapor to the YRB and lead to upward motion through warm advection.This study emphasizes the role of mid-tropospheric circulations in inducing heavy rainfall in the YRB.展开更多
In this study,based on MERRA-2 reanalysis data and a multi-algorithm integrated atmospheric river(AR)iden-tification method,the authors reveal the cross-seasonal regulation mechanism of El Niño-Southern Oscillati...In this study,based on MERRA-2 reanalysis data and a multi-algorithm integrated atmospheric river(AR)iden-tification method,the authors reveal the cross-seasonal regulation mechanism of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)on winter-spring AR activities in East Asia.The results show that ENSO asymmetrically modulates AR ac-tivity through teleconnection and hysteresis effects,and has significant enhancement/inhibition effects on ARs in different regions.At the onset of El Niño,enhanced southwesterly flow at the western edge of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)leads to enhanced AR activity in the western Pacific,and anomalous southerly winds in the Indian Ocean promote northward transport of water vapor in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.With a three-month lag,the weakening and eastward retreat of the WPSH weakens the low-latitude AR activity,but persistent southerly winds in the Bay of Bengal maintain the AR activity over Southwest China.The mid-to high-latitude AR response exhibits delayed dynamics,initially dominated by the synergistic effect of the southward deviation of the upper-air rapids and the low-level convergence(double-rapid-flow effect)and later modulated by the Pacific-North American teleconnection(PNA)-triggered East Asian ridge,which enhances the precipitation efficiency through prolonged frontal activity and enhanced cold-warm airmass convergence.Overall,El Niño promotes the development of low-and midlatitude AR activity in East Asia,while La Niña promotes(maritime continental)AR activity in the tropics.This study establishes the“ENSO teleconnection→circulation adjust-ment→East Asian AR response”chain,revealing a cross-seasonal lagged response mechanisms of East Asian AR activity,and provides a theoretical basis for winter and spring climate prediction and extreme precipitation forecasting.展开更多
Previous studies have shown that the Eocene oil shale sequences in the Green River Basin contain long-period astronomical age information.The fine-scale chronological characteristics of the oil shale laminae remain la...Previous studies have shown that the Eocene oil shale sequences in the Green River Basin contain long-period astronomical age information.The fine-scale chronological characteristics of the oil shale laminae remain largely unexplored.We selected finely laminated oil shales formed in deep-water environments characterized by stable water column stratification as the primary focus of this study,using microscopy and micro-area X-ray fluorescence(μ-XRF)techniques.By integrating high-resolution elemental data with timeseries analysis,we identified significant periodic signals associated with solar activity(Hale and Schwabe cycles)and ENSO.The results indicate that the alternations of light and dark laminae in the Green River Formation oil shale correspond to alternating dry and wet climate regimes:the light laminae are dominated by carbonate minerals,reflecting drier and milder conditions,while the dark laminae are enriched in terrigenous clastics and organic matter,indicating periods of increased precipitation and warmer temperatures.The detected periodicities(23.5 years,13.3 years and 5.8 years)are highly consistent with modern observations,demonstrating that the lower Eocene Green River oil shale effectively records short-term solar activity and climate variability.Furthermore,our findings confirm that a persistent"permanent El Niño"state did not develop under Early Eocene greenhouse conditions,providing a refined chronological framework for highresolution paleoclimate studies during greenhouse intervals.展开更多
We conducted a field campaign to investigate the chemical composition,sources,and light absorption of submicron aerosols(PM_(1))from early 2022 in Nanjing,China.The average concentration of PM_(1) was 31μg m^(−3),org...We conducted a field campaign to investigate the chemical composition,sources,and light absorption of submicron aerosols(PM_(1))from early 2022 in Nanjing,China.The average concentration of PM_(1) was 31μg m^(−3),organics(33%)constituted the largest fraction,followed by nitrate(30%),sulfate(18%),ammonium(15%),chloride(3%),and rBC(2%).Four organic aerosol(OA)subcomponents were identified,including two primary OA(POA)and two secondary OA(SOA).The less-oxidized SOA(LO-OOA)contributes the most to the total OA mass(59%).LO-OOA is tightly correlated with the tracer ion C_(2)H_(4)O_(2)^(+)from levoglucosan,and another aged biomass-burning derived species,K_(3)SO_(4)^(+),suggesting it was likely influenced by aged biomass-burning OA.Our study also revealed that fireworks during the Spring Festival have a detrimental impact on air quality,contributing to secondary formation and accumulation under static winter meteorological conditions,prolonging the pollution duration.Also,LO-OOA was found to have the strongest light-absorbing ability.Our results highlight that the light absorption of LO-OOA can mainly be attributed to the C_(x)H_(y)N^(+) family,increased with the double-bond equivalent value.The more-oxidized SOA(MO-OOA)exhibited a negligible light absorption and was strongly correlated with daytime photochemical processes,implying a light-bleaching effect.This study enhances our understanding of the regional contribution of biomass combustion and fireworks to PM_(1) pollution in Nanjing,a typical megacity in the Yangtze River Delta region,during winter,aiding in the development of strategies for long-term air quality improvement in the region.展开更多
Human activities have significantly impacted the land surface temperature(LST),endangering human health;however,the relationship between these two factors has not been adequately quantified.This study comprehensively ...Human activities have significantly impacted the land surface temperature(LST),endangering human health;however,the relationship between these two factors has not been adequately quantified.This study comprehensively constructs a Human Activity Intensity(HAI)index and employs the Maximal Information Coefficient,four-quadrant model,and XGBoostSHAP model to investigate the spatiotemporal relationship and influencing factors of HAI-LST in the Yellow River Basin(YRB)from 2000 to 2020.The results indicated that from 2000 to 2020,as HAI and LST increased,the static HAI-LST relationship in the YRB showed a positive correlation that continued to strengthen.This dynamic relationship exhibited conflicting development,with the proportion of coordinated to conflicting regions shifting from 1:4 to 1:2,indicating a reduction in conflict intensity.Notably,only the degree of conflict in the source area decreased significantly,whereas it intensified in the upper and lower reaches.The key factors influencing the HAI-LST relationship include fractional vegetation cover,slope,precipitation,and evapotranspiration,along with region-specific factors such as PM_(2.5),biodiversity,and elevation.Based on these findings,region-specific ecological management strategies have been proposed to mitigate conflict-prone areas and alleviate thermal stress,thereby providing important guidance for promoting harmonious development between humans and nature.展开更多
The Selenge River Basin(SRB)in Mongolia has faced ecosystem degradation because of climate change and overloading.The dynamics of the pastoral system and the extent of overload under future scenarios have not been doc...The Selenge River Basin(SRB)in Mongolia has faced ecosystem degradation because of climate change and overloading.The dynamics of the pastoral system and the extent of overload under future scenarios have not been documented.This study aims to answer the following questions:Will the typical soums in the SRB become more overgrazed in the future?What optimal strategy should be implemented?Multisource data were integrated and utilized to model the pastoral system of typical soums using a system dynamics approach.Future scenarios under three SSP-RCPs were projected using the model.The conclusions are as follows:(1)From upstream to downstream,rational scenarios for pastoral system transferred from SSP1-RCP2.6 to SSP2-RCP4.5,which reflect improved productivity at the expense of ecosystem stability.(2)Compared with that during the historical period of 2000-2020,the projected carrying capacity of the soums decreases by 15.2%-37.3%,whereas the number of livestock continues to increase.Consequently,the stocking rate is expected to increase from 0.32-1.16 during 2000-2020 to 1.26-2.02 during 2021-2050,indicating that rangeland will become more overloaded.(3)A livestock reduction strategy based on future livestock stock and grassland carrying capacity scenarios was proposed to maintain a dynamic forage-livestock equilibrium.It is suggested that reducing livestock is a practical option for harmonizing grassland conservation with livestock husbandry development.展开更多
Effective management of mining areas in the Luo River Basin,located in the eastern Qinling Mountains,is vital for the integrated protection and restoration needed to support the high-quality development of the Yellow ...Effective management of mining areas in the Luo River Basin,located in the eastern Qinling Mountains,is vital for the integrated protection and restoration needed to support the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.Using the‘cupball'model,this study analyzes the limiting factors and restoration characteristics across four mining areas and proposes a conceptual model for selecting appropriate restoration approaches.A second conceptual model is then introduced to address regional development needs,incorporating ecological conservation,safety protection,and people's wellbeing.The applicability of the integrated model selection framework is demonstrated through a case study on the south bank of the Qinglongjian River.The results indicate that:(1)The key limiting factors are similar across cases,but the degree of ecological degradation varies.(2)Mildly degraded areas are represented by a shallower and narrower‘cup',where natural recovery is the preferred approach,whereas moderately and severely degraded systems call for assisted regeneration and ecological reconstruction,respectively.(3)When the restoration models determined based on limiting factors and development needs are consistent,the model is directly applicable;if they differ,the option involving less artificial intervention is preferred;(4)Monitoring of the restored mining area on the Qinglongjian River's south bank confirms significant improvements in soil erosion control and vegetation coverage.This study provides a transferable methodology for balancing resource extraction with ecosystem conservation,offering practical insights for other ecologically vulnerable mining regions.展开更多
The Arno River Basin(Central Italy)is affected by a considerable anthropogenic pressure due to the presence of large cities and widespread industrial and agricultural practices.In this work,26 water samples from the A...The Arno River Basin(Central Italy)is affected by a considerable anthropogenic pressure due to the presence of large cities and widespread industrial and agricultural practices.In this work,26 water samples from the Arno River and its main tributaries were analyzed to assess the water pollution status.The geochemical composition of the Arno River changes from the source(dominated by a Ca-HCO_(3) facies)to the mouth(where a Na-Cl(SO4)chemistry prevails)with an increasing quality deterioration,as suggested by the Chemical Water Quality Index,due to anthropogenic contributions and seawater intrusion before flowing into the Ligurian Sea.The Ombrone and Usciana tributaries introduce anthropogenic pollutants into the Arno River,whilst Elsa tributary supplies significant contents of geogenic sulfate.The concentrations of dissolved nitrate and nitrite(up to 63 and 9 mg/L,respectively)and the respective isotopic values of𝛿15N and𝛿18O were also determined to understand origin and fate of the N-species in the Arno River Basin surface waters.The combined application of𝛿15N-NO_(3) and𝛿18O-NO_(3) and N-source apportionment modelling allowed the identification of soil organic nitrogen and sewage and domestic wastes as primary sources for dissolved NO_(3)-.The𝛿15N-NO_(2) and𝛿18O-NO_(2) values suggest that the nitrification process affects the ARB waters,thus controlling the abundances and proportion of the N-species.Our work indicates that additional efforts are needed to improve management strategies to reduce the release of nitrogenated species to the surface waters of the Arno River Basin,since little progress has been made from the early 2000s.展开更多
The widely distributed loess deposits in the Yellow River Basin exhibit unique engineering geological characteristics.The variations in their thickness and stratigraphic structure significantly amplify ground motion p...The widely distributed loess deposits in the Yellow River Basin exhibit unique engineering geological characteristics.The variations in their thickness and stratigraphic structure significantly amplify ground motion parameters,directly influencing the regional seismic hazard risk level.This study methodically conducted on-site studies and observations of building collapses and damages resulting from seismic amplification effects,using the Wenchuan M_(S)8.0 earthquake as a case study.Comprehensive experimental and numerical simulation studies were carried out.A large-scale shaking table test was performed,and numerical models for 14 different loess sites types were established.Various types of seismic waves were incorporated into these models for systematic numerical simulation calculations.The research reveals the mechanisms by which loess deposit thickness and stratigraphic structure in the Yellow River Basin affect seismic ground motion amplification.The results indicate that as the epicentral distance increases,the peak ground motion shows a marked attenuation trend,with the horizontal component attenuating substantially faster than the vertical component.As the overlying loess layer thickness increases from 50 to 100 m,the seismic intensity may escalate by 3−4 degrees,and the peak acceleration may amplify by 1.5−2.2 times.With the augmentation of loess deposit thickness and the proliferation of soil layers,both the peak acceleration response spectrum and the characteristic period demonstrate an upward tendency,exhibiting slight fluctuations contingent upon the seismic wave type.展开更多
A greater understanding of the interactions among water,food,and carbon is needed to promote the sustainable development of the Yangtze River Basin(YRB),China.In this study,we calculated the water yield(WY),food suppl...A greater understanding of the interactions among water,food,and carbon is needed to promote the sustainable development of the Yangtze River Basin(YRB),China.In this study,we calculated the water yield(WY),food supply(FS),and carbon sequestra-tion(CS)services of the YRB in 2000,2010,and 2020 via the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(InVEST)model.Then,we used the correlation coefficient and spatial clustering methods to analyse the coupling relationships among WY,FS,and CS.Finally,we identified the main factors of the water-food-carbon(WFC)coupling system via the optimal parameter geographic detector.The results showed that WY,FS,and CS in the YRB have degraded from 2010 to 2020 with reductions of-6.30%,-0.13%,and-0.31%,respectively.A notable trade-off relationship existed between FS and CS,with correlation coefficients of-0.63 in 2000,-0.62 in 2010,and-0.60 in 2020.From 2000 to 2020,the area proportion of the grassland low-service bundle decreased from 28.18% to 25.05%,whereas that of the ecologically balanced bundle increased from 23.24%to 24.85%.Distance to cropland,distance to forested land,and land use were the main driving factors for the WFC coupling system in the YRB,with explanatory power of 0.72,0.43,and 0.87 in 2010,respectively.These findings provide scientific theoretical support for achieving food security,water security,carbon neut-rality and peak carbon goals in the YRB.展开更多
The Yili River Basin in Northwest China is a crucial ecological security barrier,yet it faces frequent droughts amid global climate change,posing significant threats to food security and ecological stability.However,t...The Yili River Basin in Northwest China is a crucial ecological security barrier,yet it faces frequent droughts amid global climate change,posing significant threats to food security and ecological stability.However,the spatiotemporal variations and driving mechanisms of drought in the basin remain unclear.Based on the monthly Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI),this study employed the Run-Length theory to identify drought events in the basin during 1980-2020,applied statistical and time-series analyses to investigate the spatiotemporal variations,trends,periodicity,and persistence of drought,and explored the underlying drivers associated with meteorological factors and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns.The results showed that droughts in the Yili River Basin are more severe in spring and summer.Droughts in the central and southwestern regions exhibit greater severity,with shorter durations and stronger intensity.Drought conditions have generally worsened(Sen’s slope=−0.146/10 yr),with notable intensification since 2005,especially in the northwestern region.Spring droughts(Sen’s slope=−0.213/10 yr)and summer droughts(Sen’s slope=−0.169/10 yr)have intensified at most stations,while autumn and winter droughts have eased.In the future,droughts are expected to alleviate overall,but summer droughts may continue to intensify.The Yili River Basin exhibits two primary drought periods of 9 yr and 21 yr,with primary periods in autumn(20 yr)and winter(20 yr)being longer than those in spring(10 yr)and summer(17 yr).Finally,droughts are impacted by both meteorological factors and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns.Rising temperatures and uneven precipitation have intensified droughts.The SPEI exhibits a co-phase relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation and an antiphase relationship with the East Central Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature.Therefore,close monitoring and mitigation are necessary for spring and summer droughts,with a focus on the central and southwestern areas in autumn and winter.展开更多
Glacial meltwater constitutes a vital component of the water supply in arid and semi-arid areas.However,the influence of glacial melting on runoff and evapotranspiration under global warming remains insufficiently und...Glacial meltwater constitutes a vital component of the water supply in arid and semi-arid areas.However,the influence of glacial melting on runoff and evapotranspiration under global warming remains insufficiently understood.Previous studies coupling the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)model with glacier modules often failed to consider the spatial heterogeneity of temperature during glacial melting,potentially leading to biased estimates of meltwater volume.In this study,we developed a glacier-coupled SWAT(SWAT-glacier)model considering the digital elevation model(DEM)based temperature-driven glacial melt processes to elucidate the impact of glacial melting on hydrological processes across four river basins(Dongda,Xiying,Jinta,and Zamu)of the upper Shiyang River Basin(SYRB)in northwestern China from 1986 to 2021.Compared with the standard SWAT model,the proposed SWAT-glacier model significantly improved the simulation accuracy for both runoff and evapotranspiration.Specifically,in comparison with the standard SWAT model,the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of the SWAT-glacier model showed a relative improvement of approximately 0.42%–9.16%and 1.50%–10.15%for runoff and evapotranspiration,respectively,in the four river basins during the validation period.Annual glacial runoff occurred predominantly from May to October,whereas glacial melt-induced evapotranspiration peaked between June and August.From 1986 to 2021,the average contributions of glacial melt to runoff were 6.97%for Dongda,3.06%for Xiying,2.70%for Jinta,and 0.67%for Zamu,whereas its contributions to evapotranspiration were 9.06%,5.14%,3.21%,and 1.59%,respectively.This study presents a SWAT-glacier modeling framework that enhances the simulation of hydrological processes in cold regions.The proposed methodology can be extended to other glacierized basins to provide valuable insights into water resource management under climate change.展开更多
The hydrological system in Central Asia is highly sensitive to global climate change,significantly affecting water supply and energy production.In Tajikistan,the Vakhsh River—one of the main tributaries of the Amu Da...The hydrological system in Central Asia is highly sensitive to global climate change,significantly affecting water supply and energy production.In Tajikistan,the Vakhsh River—one of the main tributaries of the Amu Darya—plays a key role in the region’s hydropower and irrigation.However,research on long-term hydrological changes in its two top large basins—the Surkhob and Khingov river basins—remains limited.Therefore,this study analyzed long-term climate and hydrological changes in the Vakhsh River,including its main tributaries—the Surkhob and Khingov rivers—which are vital for the water resource management in Tajikistan and even in Central Asia.Using long-term hydrometeorological observations,the change trends of temperature(1933–2020),precipitation(1970–2020),and runoff(1940–2018)were examined to assess the impact of climate change on the regional water resources.The analysis revealed the occurrence of significant warming and a spatially uneven increase in precipitation.The temperature changes across three climatic periods(1933–1960,1960–1990,and 1990–2020)indicated that there was a transition from baseline level to accelerated warming.The precipitation showed a 2.99 mm/a increase in the Khingov River Basin and a 2.80 mm/a increase in the Surkhob River Basin during 1970–2020.Moreover,there was a gradual shift toward wetter conditions in recent decades.Despite the relatively stable annual mean runoff,seasonal redistribution occurred,with increased runoff in spring and reduced runoff in summer,due to the compensation of glacier melting.Moreover,this study forecasted runoff change during 2019–2040 using the exponential triple smoothing(ETS)method and revealed the occurrence of alternating wet and dry phases,emphasizing the sensitivity of the Vakhsh River Basin’s hydrological system to climate change and the necessity of adaptive water resource management in mountainous regions of Central Asia.Therefore,this study can provide evidence-based insights that are critical for future water resources planning,climate-resilient hydropower development,and regional adaptation strategies in climate-vulnerable basins in Central Asia.展开更多
In the northern Tarim River Basin,the Weigan River Basin is a critical endorheic system characterized by extreme aridity,where drought poses a major natural hazard to agricultural production and ecological stability.T...In the northern Tarim River Basin,the Weigan River Basin is a critical endorheic system characterized by extreme aridity,where drought poses a major natural hazard to agricultural production and ecological stability.This study assessed the future evolution of drought under climate change by employing the standardized moisture anomaly index(SZI)on the basis of multi-model the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)simulations under historical conditions(1970–2014)and future scenarios(shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP)1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 for 2015–2100).The results show that precipitation–evapotranspiration anomalies are projected to first decline but then increase over time,with increased fluctuations and uncertainty under high-emission scenarios(SSP5-8.5).These trends indicate intensifying drought risks and reveal a strong influence of emission pathways on regional water cycling.Temporal analysis of SZI indicates a transition from wetting to drying under lowand medium-emission pathways(SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5),whereas high-emission scenarios are characterized by persistent drying and increased variability.The significant lower-tail dependence(0.271)observed under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 suggests that extreme droughts may be subject to nonlinear co-amplification across scenarios.The frequency of moderate and more severe drought events is expected to increase substantially,especially under SSP5-8.5,where drought occurrence is predicted to extend into spring and autumn and become more evenly distributed throughout the year.Spatially,drought duration shows significant positive autocorrelation across all scenarios,with hot spots consistently concentrated in the southern and southeastern regions of the basin.Random forest analysis,interpreted as association-based pattern attribution,indicates that meteorological variables(precipitation and potential evapotranspiration(PET))make the greatest contributions to the hot spot pattern,followed by topography and soil moisture.Among land use categories,farmland generally shows higher drought sensitivity than other land use types,as reflected by its relative contribution patterns across scenarios.The spatial pattern of drought is statistically structured by climatic forcing,surface conditions,and soil moisture status,reflecting their coupled associations with hot spot occurrence.In addition,a drought spatial uncertainty index was constructed from multi-scenario hot spot maps,revealing spatially heterogeneous structural variability throughout the basin.Correlation analysis further highlights strong internal couplings among environmental variables(e.g.,elevation-linked hydroclimatic gradients and grassland–bare soil contrasts).These findings offer a scientific basis for developing region-specific drought monitoring and adaptation strategies under future climate change conditions.展开更多
River ethics,a significant advancement inspired by Chinese President XI Jinping's ecological civilization thought,embodies the philosophical essence of river governance and represents a legacy of innovation by gen...River ethics,a significant advancement inspired by Chinese President XI Jinping's ecological civilization thought,embodies the philosophical essence of river governance and represents a legacy of innovation by generations of water resources professionals.Rooted in river ecology,it offers a framework for advancing modern water governance systems and capabilities.This paper examines eight dimensions of river ethics to provide actionable recommendations:enhancing knowledge systems on water,rivers,and lakes;addressing critical challenges in water governance to strengthen the foundational role of water authorities in ensuring water security,resource management,ecological sustainability and environmental protection;optimizing water project planning to mitigate ecological impacts;ensuring high standards in the lifecycle management of water projects;refining water diversion strategies for precise scheduling;utilizing ecosystem complexity for river and lake restoration;implementing tiered management of water-related disasters;and driving reforms to modernize water governance systems and mechanisms.展开更多
A glacier hazard chain can form a long-runout mass flow and generate a large flood,affecting downstream areas hundreds of kilometers away from the initiating hazard site.This study focuses on the Yarlung Zangbo Daxiag...A glacier hazard chain can form a long-runout mass flow and generate a large flood,affecting downstream areas hundreds of kilometers away from the initiating hazard site.This study focuses on the Yarlung Zangbo Daxiagu.The objective is to address two key unresolved issues:the evolution of detached glacier materials into debris flows or debris floods and the amplification of the impact range and threats.A comprehensive framework is developed that considers the impacts of near-field and far-field hazards.Numerical modeling,remote sensing,and field investigations were integrated to understand the interactions,transformations,and amplifications of hazards in the glacier hazard chain.The results indicate that extensive,nearly saturated sediments on the glacier valley floor,when entrained,amplify the magnitude of the mass flow.The topography plays a crucial role.When the valley outlet is perpendicular to the river course,topographic obstacles cause immediate halting,resulting in the formation of high barrier dams.Conversely,when the glacier valley aligns nearly parallel to the river course,the mass flow can travel a much longer distance upon entering the river,causing an enlarged affected area.The barrier dams can breach rapidly,causing breaching floods that amplify the downstream impact from several kilometers to hundreds of kilometers.Our analysis reveals that the overall impacts remain spatially limited.Specifically,downstream areas along the Yarlung Zangbo-Brahmaputra River are unlikely to face greater threats from the upstream floods than local monsoon floods.Our findings provide the foundation for the management of glacier hazard chains.展开更多
Due to water conflicts and allocation in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin(LMRB),the spatio-temporal differentiation of total water resources and the natural-human influence need to be clarified.This work investigated LM...Due to water conflicts and allocation in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin(LMRB),the spatio-temporal differentiation of total water resources and the natural-human influence need to be clarified.This work investigated LMRB's terrestrial water storage anomaly(TWSA)and its spatio-temporal dynamics during 2002–2020.Considering the effects of natural factors and human activities,the respective contributions of climate variability and human activities to terrestrial water storage change(TWSC)were separated.Results showed that:(1)LMRB's TWSA decreased by 0.3158 cm/a.(2)TWSA showed a gradual increase in distribution from southwest of MRB to middle LMRB and from northeast of LRB to middle LMRB.TWSA positively changed in Myanmar while slightly changed in Laos and China.It negatively changed in Vietnam,Thailand and Cambodia.(3)TWSA components decreased in a descending order of soil moisture,groundwater and precipitation.(4)Natural factors had a substantial and spatial differentiated influence on TWSA over the LMRB.(5)Climate variability contributed 79%of TWSC in the LMRB while human activities contributed 21%with an increasing impact after 2008.The TWSC of upstream basin countries was found to be controlled by climate variability while Vietnam and Cambodia's TWSC has been controlled by human activities since 2012.展开更多
基金supported by Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(Nos.2023A1515110824 and 2025A1515011839)Shenzhen Science and Technology Program(No.RCBS20231211090638066).
文摘Understanding water chemistry in karst regions is crucial for improving global water resource management and deepening our knowledge of the biogeochemical cycles shaping these sensitive environments.Despite advance-ments in karst hydrology,significant gaps remain in long-term trends,underlying processes,and quantitative effects of environmental changes.This is especially true in areas like the Wujiang River(WJ)in China,where human activities such as reservoir construction and land use/cover changes have accelerated hydrochemical changes.We combined recent and historical monitoring data to provide a detailed analysis of the spatial and temporal characteristics,evolution,and controlling factors of major ions in WJ.These findings are important for local water management and contribute to global efforts to manage similar karst systems facing human-induced pressures.Our research shows clear seasonal differences in solute concentrations,with higher levels during the dry season.WJ’s water is rich in calcium,with Ca-HCO_(3) ion pairs being the most common.Reservoir monitor-ing stations show much higher levels of NO_(3)^(−)and SO_(4)^(2−)compared to river-type stations,likely due to longer hydraulic retention time and increased acid deposition.The study confirms the significant role of pH and water temperature in rock weathering processes.Land use/cover changes were identified as the primary drivers of solute variations(46.37%),followed by lithology(13.92%)and temperature(8.35%).Over the past two decades,in-tense carbonate weathering has been observed,especially during wet seasons.Among karstic provinces,Guizhou Province stands out with the highest ion concentrations,indicative of its extensive karst coverage and heightened weathering processes.
基金The Science and Technology Basic Resources Survey Project,No.2021FY101002Wetland Protection and Restoration in China Funded by the Palson Institute and Laoniu Foundation,UNDP-GEF Flyway Project,No.PIMS ID:6110。
文摘Effective conservation relies on robust assessments;however,the lack of waterbird data in the Yellow River Basin(YRB)has led to an underestimation of key habitat significance.This study addressed this gap by evaluating YRB wetland conservation importance using waterbirds as indicators and applying Ramsar,Important Bird Areas(IBA),and East Asian-Australasian Flyway(EAAF)criteria.We integrated coordinated surveys with citizen science data,creating a framework that tackles data deficiencies along the under-monitored Central Asian Flyway(CAF).Our analysis identified 75 priority wetlands,supporting 15 threatened species and 49 exceeding global/flyway 1%thresholds,highlighting the basin's biodiversity.We observed strong seasonal habitat use,with high-altitude wetlands vital for breeding and migration,and the Yellow River Delta providing year-round refuge.This research also provided data to refine Baer's Pochard population estimates.Alarmingly,one-third of the identified priority areas,primarily rivers and lakes,remain unprotected.To address this,we recommend systematic surveys,enhanced protected areas,OECMs,and targeted wetland restoration.This study underscores the YRB's role in regional conservation and provides essential data for adaptive management,particularly emphasizing the CAF's importance.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(42192552,42475011)。
文摘Typhoons are strong air–sea interactions that significantly affect the physical and biogeochemical processes of the upper ocean. Based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System-Carbon–Silicate–Nitrate Ecosystem coupled model, the influence of Typhoon Bolaven(2012) on physical and ecological variables in the East China Sea and the underlying mechanisms were investigated. The results showed that the typhoon induced intense vertical mixing in the upper ocean,leading to sea surface cooling, increased salinity, nutrient concentrations, and phytoplankton blooms. Conversely, warming,reduced salinity, and decreased nutrient concentrations occurred in the subsurface layer. In the Yangtze River Estuary, the passage of typhoons effectively affected wind and current directions, shaping the dipole distribution patterns of the environmental elements. Diagnostic analysis indicated that tropical cyclone-induced horizontal advection is key in driving changes in both the physical and ecological variables within the estuary region. This study provides novel insights into the physical-ecological coupling processes and driving mechanisms governing oceanic environmental changes during typhoon events, particularly in the waters adjacent to the Yangtze River Estuary.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42275041)the Hainan Province Science and Technology Special Fund(Grant No.SOLZSKY2025006).
文摘Summer rainfall in the Yangtze River basin(YRB)is favored by two key factors in the lower troposphere:the tropical anticyclonic anomaly over the western North Pacific and the extratropical northeasterly anomalies to the north of the YRB.This study,however,found that approximately 46%of heavy rainfall events in the YRB occur when only one factor appears and the other is opposite signed.Accordingly,these heavy rainfall events can be categorized into two types:the extratropical northeasterly anomalies but tropical cyclonic anomaly(first unconventional type),and the tropical anticyclonic anomaly but extratropical southwesterly anomalies(second unconventional type).Anomalous water vapor convergence and upward motion exists for both types,but through different mechanisms.For the first type,the moisture convergence and upward motion are induced by a cyclonic anomaly over the YRB,which appears in the mid and lower troposphere and originates from the upstream region.For the second type,a mid-tropospheric cyclonic anomaly over Lake Baikal extends southward and results in southwesterly anomalies over the YRB,in conjunction with the tropical anticyclonic anomaly.The southwesterly anomalies transport water vapor to the YRB and lead to upward motion through warm advection.This study emphasizes the role of mid-tropospheric circulations in inducing heavy rainfall in the YRB.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 41830964]the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province[grant number 2023JJ40666]。
文摘In this study,based on MERRA-2 reanalysis data and a multi-algorithm integrated atmospheric river(AR)iden-tification method,the authors reveal the cross-seasonal regulation mechanism of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)on winter-spring AR activities in East Asia.The results show that ENSO asymmetrically modulates AR ac-tivity through teleconnection and hysteresis effects,and has significant enhancement/inhibition effects on ARs in different regions.At the onset of El Niño,enhanced southwesterly flow at the western edge of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)leads to enhanced AR activity in the western Pacific,and anomalous southerly winds in the Indian Ocean promote northward transport of water vapor in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.With a three-month lag,the weakening and eastward retreat of the WPSH weakens the low-latitude AR activity,but persistent southerly winds in the Bay of Bengal maintain the AR activity over Southwest China.The mid-to high-latitude AR response exhibits delayed dynamics,initially dominated by the synergistic effect of the southward deviation of the upper-air rapids and the low-level convergence(double-rapid-flow effect)and later modulated by the Pacific-North American teleconnection(PNA)-triggered East Asian ridge,which enhances the precipitation efficiency through prolonged frontal activity and enhanced cold-warm airmass convergence.Overall,El Niño promotes the development of low-and midlatitude AR activity in East Asia,while La Niña promotes(maritime continental)AR activity in the tropics.This study establishes the“ENSO teleconnection→circulation adjust-ment→East Asian AR response”chain,revealing a cross-seasonal lagged response mechanisms of East Asian AR activity,and provides a theoretical basis for winter and spring climate prediction and extreme precipitation forecasting.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42372125 and 41772092)。
文摘Previous studies have shown that the Eocene oil shale sequences in the Green River Basin contain long-period astronomical age information.The fine-scale chronological characteristics of the oil shale laminae remain largely unexplored.We selected finely laminated oil shales formed in deep-water environments characterized by stable water column stratification as the primary focus of this study,using microscopy and micro-area X-ray fluorescence(μ-XRF)techniques.By integrating high-resolution elemental data with timeseries analysis,we identified significant periodic signals associated with solar activity(Hale and Schwabe cycles)and ENSO.The results indicate that the alternations of light and dark laminae in the Green River Formation oil shale correspond to alternating dry and wet climate regimes:the light laminae are dominated by carbonate minerals,reflecting drier and milder conditions,while the dark laminae are enriched in terrigenous clastics and organic matter,indicating periods of increased precipitation and warmer temperatures.The detected periodicities(23.5 years,13.3 years and 5.8 years)are highly consistent with modern observations,demonstrating that the lower Eocene Green River oil shale effectively records short-term solar activity and climate variability.Furthermore,our findings confirm that a persistent"permanent El Niño"state did not develop under Early Eocene greenhouse conditions,providing a refined chronological framework for highresolution paleoclimate studies during greenhouse intervals.
基金support from the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(Grant No.BK20240036)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U24A20515,22276099,and 22361162668)Guangxi Key Research and Development Program,China(Grant No.Guike AB24010074)。
文摘We conducted a field campaign to investigate the chemical composition,sources,and light absorption of submicron aerosols(PM_(1))from early 2022 in Nanjing,China.The average concentration of PM_(1) was 31μg m^(−3),organics(33%)constituted the largest fraction,followed by nitrate(30%),sulfate(18%),ammonium(15%),chloride(3%),and rBC(2%).Four organic aerosol(OA)subcomponents were identified,including two primary OA(POA)and two secondary OA(SOA).The less-oxidized SOA(LO-OOA)contributes the most to the total OA mass(59%).LO-OOA is tightly correlated with the tracer ion C_(2)H_(4)O_(2)^(+)from levoglucosan,and another aged biomass-burning derived species,K_(3)SO_(4)^(+),suggesting it was likely influenced by aged biomass-burning OA.Our study also revealed that fireworks during the Spring Festival have a detrimental impact on air quality,contributing to secondary formation and accumulation under static winter meteorological conditions,prolonging the pollution duration.Also,LO-OOA was found to have the strongest light-absorbing ability.Our results highlight that the light absorption of LO-OOA can mainly be attributed to the C_(x)H_(y)N^(+) family,increased with the double-bond equivalent value.The more-oxidized SOA(MO-OOA)exhibited a negligible light absorption and was strongly correlated with daytime photochemical processes,implying a light-bleaching effect.This study enhances our understanding of the regional contribution of biomass combustion and fireworks to PM_(1) pollution in Nanjing,a typical megacity in the Yangtze River Delta region,during winter,aiding in the development of strategies for long-term air quality improvement in the region.
基金Shanxi Province Graduate Research Practice Innovation Project,No.2023KY465Project on the Reform of Graduate Education and Teaching in Shanxi Province,No.2021YJJG146+1 种基金Research Project of Shanxi Provincial Cultural Relics Bureau,No.22-8-14-1400-119National Key R&D Program of China,No.2021YFB3901300。
文摘Human activities have significantly impacted the land surface temperature(LST),endangering human health;however,the relationship between these two factors has not been adequately quantified.This study comprehensively constructs a Human Activity Intensity(HAI)index and employs the Maximal Information Coefficient,four-quadrant model,and XGBoostSHAP model to investigate the spatiotemporal relationship and influencing factors of HAI-LST in the Yellow River Basin(YRB)from 2000 to 2020.The results indicated that from 2000 to 2020,as HAI and LST increased,the static HAI-LST relationship in the YRB showed a positive correlation that continued to strengthen.This dynamic relationship exhibited conflicting development,with the proportion of coordinated to conflicting regions shifting from 1:4 to 1:2,indicating a reduction in conflict intensity.Notably,only the degree of conflict in the source area decreased significantly,whereas it intensified in the upper and lower reaches.The key factors influencing the HAI-LST relationship include fractional vegetation cover,slope,precipitation,and evapotranspiration,along with region-specific factors such as PM_(2.5),biodiversity,and elevation.Based on these findings,region-specific ecological management strategies have been proposed to mitigate conflict-prone areas and alleviate thermal stress,thereby providing important guidance for promoting harmonious development between humans and nature.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.32161143025,No.42371283,No.W2412155National Key R&D Program of China,No.2022YFE0119200。
文摘The Selenge River Basin(SRB)in Mongolia has faced ecosystem degradation because of climate change and overloading.The dynamics of the pastoral system and the extent of overload under future scenarios have not been documented.This study aims to answer the following questions:Will the typical soums in the SRB become more overgrazed in the future?What optimal strategy should be implemented?Multisource data were integrated and utilized to model the pastoral system of typical soums using a system dynamics approach.Future scenarios under three SSP-RCPs were projected using the model.The conclusions are as follows:(1)From upstream to downstream,rational scenarios for pastoral system transferred from SSP1-RCP2.6 to SSP2-RCP4.5,which reflect improved productivity at the expense of ecosystem stability.(2)Compared with that during the historical period of 2000-2020,the projected carrying capacity of the soums decreases by 15.2%-37.3%,whereas the number of livestock continues to increase.Consequently,the stocking rate is expected to increase from 0.32-1.16 during 2000-2020 to 1.26-2.02 during 2021-2050,indicating that rangeland will become more overloaded.(3)A livestock reduction strategy based on future livestock stock and grassland carrying capacity scenarios was proposed to maintain a dynamic forage-livestock equilibrium.It is suggested that reducing livestock is a practical option for harmonizing grassland conservation with livestock husbandry development.
基金supported by Special major projects for research and development of Henan Provincial(Science and Technology Research Project)(No.252102321104)Humanities and Social Sciences Youth Foundation,Ministry of Education(24YJCZH410)。
文摘Effective management of mining areas in the Luo River Basin,located in the eastern Qinling Mountains,is vital for the integrated protection and restoration needed to support the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.Using the‘cupball'model,this study analyzes the limiting factors and restoration characteristics across four mining areas and proposes a conceptual model for selecting appropriate restoration approaches.A second conceptual model is then introduced to address regional development needs,incorporating ecological conservation,safety protection,and people's wellbeing.The applicability of the integrated model selection framework is demonstrated through a case study on the south bank of the Qinglongjian River.The results indicate that:(1)The key limiting factors are similar across cases,but the degree of ecological degradation varies.(2)Mildly degraded areas are represented by a shallower and narrower‘cup',where natural recovery is the preferred approach,whereas moderately and severely degraded systems call for assisted regeneration and ecological reconstruction,respectively.(3)When the restoration models determined based on limiting factors and development needs are consistent,the model is directly applicable;if they differ,the option involving less artificial intervention is preferred;(4)Monitoring of the restored mining area on the Qinglongjian River's south bank confirms significant improvements in soil erosion control and vegetation coverage.This study provides a transferable methodology for balancing resource extraction with ecosystem conservation,offering practical insights for other ecologically vulnerable mining regions.
文摘The Arno River Basin(Central Italy)is affected by a considerable anthropogenic pressure due to the presence of large cities and widespread industrial and agricultural practices.In this work,26 water samples from the Arno River and its main tributaries were analyzed to assess the water pollution status.The geochemical composition of the Arno River changes from the source(dominated by a Ca-HCO_(3) facies)to the mouth(where a Na-Cl(SO4)chemistry prevails)with an increasing quality deterioration,as suggested by the Chemical Water Quality Index,due to anthropogenic contributions and seawater intrusion before flowing into the Ligurian Sea.The Ombrone and Usciana tributaries introduce anthropogenic pollutants into the Arno River,whilst Elsa tributary supplies significant contents of geogenic sulfate.The concentrations of dissolved nitrate and nitrite(up to 63 and 9 mg/L,respectively)and the respective isotopic values of𝛿15N and𝛿18O were also determined to understand origin and fate of the N-species in the Arno River Basin surface waters.The combined application of𝛿15N-NO_(3) and𝛿18O-NO_(3) and N-source apportionment modelling allowed the identification of soil organic nitrogen and sewage and domestic wastes as primary sources for dissolved NO_(3)-.The𝛿15N-NO_(2) and𝛿18O-NO_(2) values suggest that the nitrification process affects the ARB waters,thus controlling the abundances and proportion of the N-species.Our work indicates that additional efforts are needed to improve management strategies to reduce the release of nitrogenated species to the surface waters of the Arno River Basin,since little progress has been made from the early 2000s.
基金supported by the Earthquake Science and Technology Spark Plan Project(No.XH23041C)The Natural Science Foundation of Gansu Province(No.22JR11RA090)Gansu Lanzhou Geophysics National Observation and Research Station(No.2021Y14).
文摘The widely distributed loess deposits in the Yellow River Basin exhibit unique engineering geological characteristics.The variations in their thickness and stratigraphic structure significantly amplify ground motion parameters,directly influencing the regional seismic hazard risk level.This study methodically conducted on-site studies and observations of building collapses and damages resulting from seismic amplification effects,using the Wenchuan M_(S)8.0 earthquake as a case study.Comprehensive experimental and numerical simulation studies were carried out.A large-scale shaking table test was performed,and numerical models for 14 different loess sites types were established.Various types of seismic waves were incorporated into these models for systematic numerical simulation calculations.The research reveals the mechanisms by which loess deposit thickness and stratigraphic structure in the Yellow River Basin affect seismic ground motion amplification.The results indicate that as the epicentral distance increases,the peak ground motion shows a marked attenuation trend,with the horizontal component attenuating substantially faster than the vertical component.As the overlying loess layer thickness increases from 50 to 100 m,the seismic intensity may escalate by 3−4 degrees,and the peak acceleration may amplify by 1.5−2.2 times.With the augmentation of loess deposit thickness and the proliferation of soil layers,both the peak acceleration response spectrum and the characteristic period demonstrate an upward tendency,exhibiting slight fluctuations contingent upon the seismic wave type.
基金Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.U24A20580,42201333,42171298)Natural Science Foundation of Chongqing(No.CSTB2023NSCQ-LZX0009,CSTB2022NSCQ-BHX0734)+1 种基金General Program of National Social Science Foundation in China(No.25BJY215)Research and Innovation Program for Graduate Students in Chongqing(No.CYS25587)。
文摘A greater understanding of the interactions among water,food,and carbon is needed to promote the sustainable development of the Yangtze River Basin(YRB),China.In this study,we calculated the water yield(WY),food supply(FS),and carbon sequestra-tion(CS)services of the YRB in 2000,2010,and 2020 via the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(InVEST)model.Then,we used the correlation coefficient and spatial clustering methods to analyse the coupling relationships among WY,FS,and CS.Finally,we identified the main factors of the water-food-carbon(WFC)coupling system via the optimal parameter geographic detector.The results showed that WY,FS,and CS in the YRB have degraded from 2010 to 2020 with reductions of-6.30%,-0.13%,and-0.31%,respectively.A notable trade-off relationship existed between FS and CS,with correlation coefficients of-0.63 in 2000,-0.62 in 2010,and-0.60 in 2020.From 2000 to 2020,the area proportion of the grassland low-service bundle decreased from 28.18% to 25.05%,whereas that of the ecologically balanced bundle increased from 23.24%to 24.85%.Distance to cropland,distance to forested land,and land use were the main driving factors for the WFC coupling system in the YRB,with explanatory power of 0.72,0.43,and 0.87 in 2010,respectively.These findings provide scientific theoretical support for achieving food security,water security,carbon neut-rality and peak carbon goals in the YRB.
基金Under the auspices of the Third Xinjiang Scientific Expedition Program(No.2022xjkk0600)。
文摘The Yili River Basin in Northwest China is a crucial ecological security barrier,yet it faces frequent droughts amid global climate change,posing significant threats to food security and ecological stability.However,the spatiotemporal variations and driving mechanisms of drought in the basin remain unclear.Based on the monthly Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI),this study employed the Run-Length theory to identify drought events in the basin during 1980-2020,applied statistical and time-series analyses to investigate the spatiotemporal variations,trends,periodicity,and persistence of drought,and explored the underlying drivers associated with meteorological factors and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns.The results showed that droughts in the Yili River Basin are more severe in spring and summer.Droughts in the central and southwestern regions exhibit greater severity,with shorter durations and stronger intensity.Drought conditions have generally worsened(Sen’s slope=−0.146/10 yr),with notable intensification since 2005,especially in the northwestern region.Spring droughts(Sen’s slope=−0.213/10 yr)and summer droughts(Sen’s slope=−0.169/10 yr)have intensified at most stations,while autumn and winter droughts have eased.In the future,droughts are expected to alleviate overall,but summer droughts may continue to intensify.The Yili River Basin exhibits two primary drought periods of 9 yr and 21 yr,with primary periods in autumn(20 yr)and winter(20 yr)being longer than those in spring(10 yr)and summer(17 yr).Finally,droughts are impacted by both meteorological factors and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns.Rising temperatures and uneven precipitation have intensified droughts.The SPEI exhibits a co-phase relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation and an antiphase relationship with the East Central Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature.Therefore,close monitoring and mitigation are necessary for spring and summer droughts,with a focus on the central and southwestern areas in autumn and winter.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2022YFD1900501)the Gansu Provincial Water Conservancy Scientific Experimental Research and Technology Extension Project(25GSLK044,26GSLK093).
文摘Glacial meltwater constitutes a vital component of the water supply in arid and semi-arid areas.However,the influence of glacial melting on runoff and evapotranspiration under global warming remains insufficiently understood.Previous studies coupling the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)model with glacier modules often failed to consider the spatial heterogeneity of temperature during glacial melting,potentially leading to biased estimates of meltwater volume.In this study,we developed a glacier-coupled SWAT(SWAT-glacier)model considering the digital elevation model(DEM)based temperature-driven glacial melt processes to elucidate the impact of glacial melting on hydrological processes across four river basins(Dongda,Xiying,Jinta,and Zamu)of the upper Shiyang River Basin(SYRB)in northwestern China from 1986 to 2021.Compared with the standard SWAT model,the proposed SWAT-glacier model significantly improved the simulation accuracy for both runoff and evapotranspiration.Specifically,in comparison with the standard SWAT model,the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of the SWAT-glacier model showed a relative improvement of approximately 0.42%–9.16%and 1.50%–10.15%for runoff and evapotranspiration,respectively,in the four river basins during the validation period.Annual glacial runoff occurred predominantly from May to October,whereas glacial melt-induced evapotranspiration peaked between June and August.From 1986 to 2021,the average contributions of glacial melt to runoff were 6.97%for Dongda,3.06%for Xiying,2.70%for Jinta,and 0.67%for Zamu,whereas its contributions to evapotranspiration were 9.06%,5.14%,3.21%,and 1.59%,respectively.This study presents a SWAT-glacier modeling framework that enhances the simulation of hydrological processes in cold regions.The proposed methodology can be extended to other glacierized basins to provide valuable insights into water resource management under climate change.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(W2412135).
文摘The hydrological system in Central Asia is highly sensitive to global climate change,significantly affecting water supply and energy production.In Tajikistan,the Vakhsh River—one of the main tributaries of the Amu Darya—plays a key role in the region’s hydropower and irrigation.However,research on long-term hydrological changes in its two top large basins—the Surkhob and Khingov river basins—remains limited.Therefore,this study analyzed long-term climate and hydrological changes in the Vakhsh River,including its main tributaries—the Surkhob and Khingov rivers—which are vital for the water resource management in Tajikistan and even in Central Asia.Using long-term hydrometeorological observations,the change trends of temperature(1933–2020),precipitation(1970–2020),and runoff(1940–2018)were examined to assess the impact of climate change on the regional water resources.The analysis revealed the occurrence of significant warming and a spatially uneven increase in precipitation.The temperature changes across three climatic periods(1933–1960,1960–1990,and 1990–2020)indicated that there was a transition from baseline level to accelerated warming.The precipitation showed a 2.99 mm/a increase in the Khingov River Basin and a 2.80 mm/a increase in the Surkhob River Basin during 1970–2020.Moreover,there was a gradual shift toward wetter conditions in recent decades.Despite the relatively stable annual mean runoff,seasonal redistribution occurred,with increased runoff in spring and reduced runoff in summer,due to the compensation of glacier melting.Moreover,this study forecasted runoff change during 2019–2040 using the exponential triple smoothing(ETS)method and revealed the occurrence of alternating wet and dry phases,emphasizing the sensitivity of the Vakhsh River Basin’s hydrological system to climate change and the necessity of adaptive water resource management in mountainous regions of Central Asia.Therefore,this study can provide evidence-based insights that are critical for future water resources planning,climate-resilient hydropower development,and regional adaptation strategies in climate-vulnerable basins in Central Asia.
基金supported by the Key Research and Development Project of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China(2022B02049)the Major Science and Technology Special Project of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China(2024A03007-5).
文摘In the northern Tarim River Basin,the Weigan River Basin is a critical endorheic system characterized by extreme aridity,where drought poses a major natural hazard to agricultural production and ecological stability.This study assessed the future evolution of drought under climate change by employing the standardized moisture anomaly index(SZI)on the basis of multi-model the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)simulations under historical conditions(1970–2014)and future scenarios(shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP)1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 for 2015–2100).The results show that precipitation–evapotranspiration anomalies are projected to first decline but then increase over time,with increased fluctuations and uncertainty under high-emission scenarios(SSP5-8.5).These trends indicate intensifying drought risks and reveal a strong influence of emission pathways on regional water cycling.Temporal analysis of SZI indicates a transition from wetting to drying under lowand medium-emission pathways(SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5),whereas high-emission scenarios are characterized by persistent drying and increased variability.The significant lower-tail dependence(0.271)observed under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 suggests that extreme droughts may be subject to nonlinear co-amplification across scenarios.The frequency of moderate and more severe drought events is expected to increase substantially,especially under SSP5-8.5,where drought occurrence is predicted to extend into spring and autumn and become more evenly distributed throughout the year.Spatially,drought duration shows significant positive autocorrelation across all scenarios,with hot spots consistently concentrated in the southern and southeastern regions of the basin.Random forest analysis,interpreted as association-based pattern attribution,indicates that meteorological variables(precipitation and potential evapotranspiration(PET))make the greatest contributions to the hot spot pattern,followed by topography and soil moisture.Among land use categories,farmland generally shows higher drought sensitivity than other land use types,as reflected by its relative contribution patterns across scenarios.The spatial pattern of drought is statistically structured by climatic forcing,surface conditions,and soil moisture status,reflecting their coupled associations with hot spot occurrence.In addition,a drought spatial uncertainty index was constructed from multi-scenario hot spot maps,revealing spatially heterogeneous structural variability throughout the basin.Correlation analysis further highlights strong internal couplings among environmental variables(e.g.,elevation-linked hydroclimatic gradients and grassland–bare soil contrasts).These findings offer a scientific basis for developing region-specific drought monitoring and adaptation strategies under future climate change conditions.
基金Three Gorges Follow-up Work Fund,Grant/Award Number:WE0161A042024National Key Research Program of China,Grant/Award Number:2024YFC3210900。
文摘River ethics,a significant advancement inspired by Chinese President XI Jinping's ecological civilization thought,embodies the philosophical essence of river governance and represents a legacy of innovation by generations of water resources professionals.Rooted in river ecology,it offers a framework for advancing modern water governance systems and capabilities.This paper examines eight dimensions of river ethics to provide actionable recommendations:enhancing knowledge systems on water,rivers,and lakes;addressing critical challenges in water governance to strengthen the foundational role of water authorities in ensuring water security,resource management,ecological sustainability and environmental protection;optimizing water project planning to mitigate ecological impacts;ensuring high standards in the lifecycle management of water projects;refining water diversion strategies for precise scheduling;utilizing ecosystem complexity for river and lake restoration;implementing tiered management of water-related disasters;and driving reforms to modernize water governance systems and mechanisms.
基金support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U20A20112,42061160480,42377196,and 52479095)the NSFC/RGC Joint Research Scheme(42061160480 and N_HKUST620/20)+1 种基金the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong SAR Government(16203720,T22-606/23-R,and JRFS25266S09)the Project of Hetao Shenzhen-Hong Kong Science and Technology Innovation Cooperation Zone(HZQB-KCZYB-2020083)。
文摘A glacier hazard chain can form a long-runout mass flow and generate a large flood,affecting downstream areas hundreds of kilometers away from the initiating hazard site.This study focuses on the Yarlung Zangbo Daxiagu.The objective is to address two key unresolved issues:the evolution of detached glacier materials into debris flows or debris floods and the amplification of the impact range and threats.A comprehensive framework is developed that considers the impacts of near-field and far-field hazards.Numerical modeling,remote sensing,and field investigations were integrated to understand the interactions,transformations,and amplifications of hazards in the glacier hazard chain.The results indicate that extensive,nearly saturated sediments on the glacier valley floor,when entrained,amplify the magnitude of the mass flow.The topography plays a crucial role.When the valley outlet is perpendicular to the river course,topographic obstacles cause immediate halting,resulting in the formation of high barrier dams.Conversely,when the glacier valley aligns nearly parallel to the river course,the mass flow can travel a much longer distance upon entering the river,causing an enlarged affected area.The barrier dams can breach rapidly,causing breaching floods that amplify the downstream impact from several kilometers to hundreds of kilometers.Our analysis reveals that the overall impacts remain spatially limited.Specifically,downstream areas along the Yarlung Zangbo-Brahmaputra River are unlikely to face greater threats from the upstream floods than local monsoon floods.Our findings provide the foundation for the management of glacier hazard chains.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42161006Yunnan Fundamental Research Projects No.202201AT070094,No.202301BF070001-004+1 种基金Special Project for High-level Talents of Yunnan Province for Young Top Talents,No.C6213001159European Research Council(ERC)Starting-Grant STORIES,No.101040939。
文摘Due to water conflicts and allocation in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin(LMRB),the spatio-temporal differentiation of total water resources and the natural-human influence need to be clarified.This work investigated LMRB's terrestrial water storage anomaly(TWSA)and its spatio-temporal dynamics during 2002–2020.Considering the effects of natural factors and human activities,the respective contributions of climate variability and human activities to terrestrial water storage change(TWSC)were separated.Results showed that:(1)LMRB's TWSA decreased by 0.3158 cm/a.(2)TWSA showed a gradual increase in distribution from southwest of MRB to middle LMRB and from northeast of LRB to middle LMRB.TWSA positively changed in Myanmar while slightly changed in Laos and China.It negatively changed in Vietnam,Thailand and Cambodia.(3)TWSA components decreased in a descending order of soil moisture,groundwater and precipitation.(4)Natural factors had a substantial and spatial differentiated influence on TWSA over the LMRB.(5)Climate variability contributed 79%of TWSC in the LMRB while human activities contributed 21%with an increasing impact after 2008.The TWSC of upstream basin countries was found to be controlled by climate variability while Vietnam and Cambodia's TWSC has been controlled by human activities since 2012.
