Pangu-Weather(PGW),trained with deep learning–based methods(DL-based model),shows significant potential for global medium-range weather forecasting.However,the interpretability and trustworthiness of global medium-ra...Pangu-Weather(PGW),trained with deep learning–based methods(DL-based model),shows significant potential for global medium-range weather forecasting.However,the interpretability and trustworthiness of global medium-range DLbased models raise many concerns.This study uses the singular vector(SV)initial condition(IC)perturbations of the China Meteorological Administration's Global Ensemble Prediction System(CMA-GEPS)as inputs of PGW for global ensemble prediction(PGW-GEPS)to investigate the ensemble forecast sensitivity of DL-based models to the IC errors.Meanwhile,the CMA-GEPS forecasts serve as benchmarks for comparison and verification.The spatial structures and prediction performance of PGW-GEPS are discussed and compared to CMA-GEPS based on seasonal ensemble experiments.The results show that the ensemble mean and dispersion of PGW-GEPS are similar to those of CMA-GEPS in the medium range but with smoother forecasts.Meanwhile,PGW-GEPS is sensitive to the SV IC perturbations.Specifically,PGWGEPS can generate realistic ensemble spread beyond the sub-synoptic scale(wavenumbers≤64)with SV IC perturbations.However,PGW's kinetic energy is significantly reduced at the sub-synoptic scale,leading to error growth behavior inconsistent with CMA-GEPS at that scale.Thus,this behavior indicates that the effective resolution of PGW-GEPS is beyond the sub-synoptic scale and is limited to predicting mesoscale atmospheric motions.In terms of the global mediumrange ensemble prediction performance,the probability prediction skill of PGW-GEPS is comparable to CMA-GEPS in the extratropic when they use the same IC perturbations.That means that PGW has a general ability to provide skillful global medium-range forecasts with different ICs from numerical weather prediction.展开更多
Hydraulic fracturing then fluid circulation in enhanced geothermal system(EGS)reservoirs have been shown to induce seismicity remote from the stimulation-potentially generated by the distal projection of thermoporoela...Hydraulic fracturing then fluid circulation in enhanced geothermal system(EGS)reservoirs have been shown to induce seismicity remote from the stimulation-potentially generated by the distal projection of thermoporoelastic stresses.We explore this phenomenon by evaluating stress perturbations resulting from stimulation of a single stage of hydraulic fracturing that is followed by thermal depletion of a prismatic zone adjacent to the hydraulic fracture.We use Coulomb failure stress to assess the effect of resulting stress perturbations on instability on adjacent critically-stressed faults.Results show that hydraulic fracturing in a single stage is capable of creating stress perturbations at distances to 1000 m that reach 10^(-5)-10^(-4)MPa.At a closer distance,the magnitude of stress perturbations increases even further.The stress perturbation induced by temperature depletion could also reach 10^(-3)-10^(-2)MPa within 1000 m-much higher than that by hydraulic fracturing.Considering that a critical change in Coulomb failure stress for fault instability is 10^(-2)MPa,a single stage of hydraulic fracturing and thermal drawdown are capable of reactivating critically-stressed faults at distances within 200 m and 1000 m,respectively.These results have important implications for understanding the distribution and magnitudes of stress perturbations driven by thermoporoelastic effects and the associated seismicity during the simulation and early production of EGS reservoirs.展开更多
A large number of runaway electrons(REs)generated during disruption can cause significant damage to next-generation large-scale tokamaks.The influence of three-dimensional(3D)helical magnetic perturbations on the supp...A large number of runaway electrons(REs)generated during disruption can cause significant damage to next-generation large-scale tokamaks.The influence of three-dimensional(3D)helical magnetic perturbations on the suppression of RE generation was explored using a set of 3D helical coils in J-TEXT tokamak,which can excite m/n=-2/2 helical magnetic perturbations.Experimental evidence shows that the-2/2 magnetic perturbations caused by the opposite coil current direct plasma toward the high-field side,simultaneously enhancing the magnetic fluctuations,which would enhance the radial loss of REs and even prevent RE generation.On the other hand,-2/2 magnetic perturbations can also reduce the cooling time during the disruption phase and generate a population of high-energy REs,which can interact with high-frequency magnetic fluctuations and in turn suppress RE generation.The critical helical coil current was found to correlate with electron density,requiring higher coil currents at higher densities.According to the statistical analysis of RE generation at different electron densities,the applied-2/2 magnetic perturbations can increase the magnetic fluctuations to the same level at lower electron densities,which can decrease the threshold electron density for RE suppression.This will be beneficial for RE mitigation in future large tokamak devices.展开更多
The practical predictability of hail precipitation rates is significantly influenced by initial meteorological perturbations,stemming from various uncertainty sources.This study thoroughly assessed the predictability ...The practical predictability of hail precipitation rates is significantly influenced by initial meteorological perturbations,stemming from various uncertainty sources.This study thoroughly assessed the predictability of hail precipitation rates in both climatologically and flow-dependent perturbed ensembles(CEns and FEns).These ensembles incorporated initial meteorological uncertainties derived separately from two operational ensembles.Leveraging the Weather Research and Forecasting model,we conducted cloud-resolving simulations of an idealized hailstorm.The practical predictability of hail responded comparably to both climatological and flow-dependent uncertainties,which was revealed across the entire ensemble of 50 members.However,a notable difference emerged when comparing the peak hail precipitation rates among the top 10 and bottom 10 members.From a thermodynamic perspective,the primary source of uncertainty in hail precipitation lay in the significant variations in temperature stratification,particularly at-20℃and-40℃.On the microphysical front,perturbations within CEns generated greater uncertainty in the process of rainwater collection by hail,contributing significantly to the microphysical growth mechanisms of hail.Furthermore,the findings reveal a stronger dependency of hail precipitation uncertainty on thermodynamic perturbations compared to kinematic perturbations.These insights enhance the comprehension of the practical predictability of hail and contribute significantly to the understanding of ensemble forecasting for hail events.展开更多
In recent years,universal adversarial per-turbation(UAP)has attracted the attention of many re-searchers due to its good generalization.However,in order to generate an appropriate UAP,current methods usually require e...In recent years,universal adversarial per-turbation(UAP)has attracted the attention of many re-searchers due to its good generalization.However,in order to generate an appropriate UAP,current methods usually require either accessing the original dataset or meticulously constructing optimization functions and proxy datasets.In this paper,we aim to elimi-nate any dependency on proxy datasets and explore a method for generating Universal Adversarial Pertur-bations(UAP)on a single image.After revisiting re-search on UAP,we discovered that the key to gener-ating UAP lies in the accumulation of Individual Ad-versarial Perturbation(IAP)gradient,which prompted us to study the method of accumulating gradients from an IAP.We designed a simple and effective process to generate UAP,which only includes three steps:pre-cessing,generating an IAP and scaling the perturba-tions.Through our proposed process,any IAP gener-ated on an image can be constructed into a UAP with comparable performance,indicating that UAP can be generated free of data.Extensive experiments on var-ious classifiers and attack approaches demonstrate the superiority of our method on efficiency and aggressiveness.展开更多
Orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations(O-CNOPs)have been used to generate ensemble forecasting members for achieving high forecasting skill of high-impact weather and climate events.However,highly effi...Orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations(O-CNOPs)have been used to generate ensemble forecasting members for achieving high forecasting skill of high-impact weather and climate events.However,highly efficient calculations for O-CNOPs are still challenging in the field of ensemble forecasting.In this study,we combine a gradient-based iterative idea with the Gram‒Schmidt orthogonalization,and propose an iterative optimization method to compute O-CNOPs.This method is different from the original sequential optimization method,and allows parallel computations of O-CNOPs,thus saving a large amount of computational time.We evaluate this method by using the Lorenz-96 model on the basis of the ensemble forecasting ability achieved and on the time consumed for computing O-CNOPs.The results demonstrate that the parallel iterative method causes O-CNOPs to yield reliable ensemble members and to achieve ensemble forecasting skills similar to or even slightly higher than those produced by the sequential method.Moreover,the parallel method significantly reduces the computational time for O-CNOPs.Therefore,the parallel iterative method provides a highly effective and efficient approach for calculating O-CNOPs for ensemble forecasts.Expectedly,it can play an important role in the application of the O-CNOPs to realistic ensemble forecasts for high-impact weather and climate events.展开更多
Toroidal torques,generated by the resonant magnetic perturbation(RMP)and acting on the plasma column,are numerically systematically investigated for an ITER baseline scenario.The neoclassical toroidal viscosity(NTV),i...Toroidal torques,generated by the resonant magnetic perturbation(RMP)and acting on the plasma column,are numerically systematically investigated for an ITER baseline scenario.The neoclassical toroidal viscosity(NTV),in particular the resonant portion,is found to provide the dominant contribution to the total toroidal torque under the slow plasma flow regime in ITER.While the electromagnetic torque always opposes the plasma flow,the toroidal torque associated with the Reynolds stress enhances the plasma flow independent of the flow direction.A peculiar double-peak structure for the net NTV torque is robustly computed for ITER,as the toroidal rotation frequency is scanned near the zero value.This structure is found to be ultimately due to a non-monotonic behavior of the wave-particle resonance integral(over the particle pitch angle)in the superbanana plateau NTV regime in ITER.These findings are qualitatively insensitive to variations of a range of factors including the wall resistivity,the plasma pedestal flow and the assumed frequency of the rotating RMP field.展开更多
To improve the ensemble prediction system of the tropical regional atmosphere model for the South China Sea(TREPS) in predicting landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs), the impacts of three new implementing strategies for...To improve the ensemble prediction system of the tropical regional atmosphere model for the South China Sea(TREPS) in predicting landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs), the impacts of three new implementing strategies for surface and model physics perturbations in TREPS were evaluated for 19 TCs making landfall in China during 2014–16. For sea surface temperature(SST) perturbations, spatially uncorrelated random perturbations were replaced with spatially correlated ones. The multiplier f, which is used to form perturbed tendency in the Stochastically Perturbed Parameterization Tendency(SPPT) scheme, was inflated in regions with evident convective activity(f-inflated SPPT). Lastly, the Stochastically Perturbed Parameterization(SPP) scheme with 14 perturbed parameters selected from the planetary boundary layer, surface layer, microphysics, and cumulus convection parameterizations was added. Overall, all these methods improved forecasts more significantly for non-intensifying than intensifying TCs. Compared with f-inflated SPPT,the spatially correlated SST perturbations generally showed comparable performance but were more(less) skillful for intensifying(non-intensifying) TCs. The advantages of the spatially correlated SST perturbations and f-inflated SPPT were mainly present in the deterministic guidance for both TC track and wind and in the probabilistic guidance for reliability of wind. For intensifying TCs, adding SPP led to mixed impacts with significant improvements in probability-matched mean of modest winds and in probabilistic forecasts of rainfall;while for non-intensifying TCs, adding SPP frequently led to positive impacts on the deterministic guidance for track, intensity, strong winds, and moderate rainfall and on the probabilistic guidance for wind and discrimination of rainfall.展开更多
An initial conditions （ICs） perturbation method was developed with the aim to improve an operational regional ensemble prediction system （REPS）. Three issues were identified and investigated： （1） the impacts of...An initial conditions （ICs） perturbation method was developed with the aim to improve an operational regional ensemble prediction system （REPS）. Three issues were identified and investigated： （1） the impacts of perturbation scale on the ensemble spread and forecast skill of the REPS; （2） the scale characteristic of the IC perturbations of the REPS; and （3） whether the REPS＇s skill could be improved by adding large-scale information to the IC perturbations. Numerical experiments were conducted to reveal the impact of perturbation scale on the ensemble spread and forecast skill. The scales of IC perturbations from the REPS and an operational global ensemble prediction system （GEPS） were analyzed. A ＂multi-scale blending＂ （MSB） IC perturbation scheme was developed, and the main findings can be summarized as follows： The growth rates of the ensemble spread of the REPS are sensitive to the scale of the IC perturbations; the ensemble forecast skills can benefit from large-scale perturbations; the global ensemble IC perturbations exhibit more power at larger scales, while the regional ensemble IC perturbations contain more power at smaller scales; the MSB method can generate IC perturbations by combining the small-scale component from the REPS and the large-scale component from the GEPS; the energy norm growth of the MSB-generated perturbations can be appropriate at all forecast lead times; and the MSB-based REPS shows higher skill than the original system, as determined by ensemble forecast verification.展开更多
In this paper, we consider the problem of robust stability for a class of linear systems with interval time-varying delay under nonlinear perturbations using Lyapunov-Krasovskii （LK） functional approach. By partitio...In this paper, we consider the problem of robust stability for a class of linear systems with interval time-varying delay under nonlinear perturbations using Lyapunov-Krasovskii （LK） functional approach. By partitioning the delay-interval into two segments of equal length, and evaluating the time-derivative of a candidate LK functional in each segment of the delay-interval, a less conservative delay-dependent stability criterion is developed to compute the maximum allowable bound for the delay-range within which the system under consideration remains asymptotically stable. In addition to the delay-bi-segmentation analysis procedure, the reduction in conservatism of the proposed delay-dependent stability criterion over recently reported results is also attributed to the fact that the time-derivative of the LK functional is bounded tightly using a newly proposed bounding condition without neglecting any useful terms in the delay-dependent stability analysis. The analysis, subsequently, yields a stable condition in convex linear matrix inequality （LMI） framework that can be solved non-conservatively at boundary conditions using standard numerical packages. Furthermore, as the number of decision variables involved in the proposed stability criterion is less, the criterion is computationally more effective. The effectiveness of the proposed stability criterion is validated through some standard numerical examples.展开更多
This study reexamines the propagation mechanism and geostrophic property of the classical two-dimensional Rossby waves in a non-divergent barotropic atmosphere. It will be found that propagation of large scale atmosph...This study reexamines the propagation mechanism and geostrophic property of the classical two-dimensional Rossby waves in a non-divergent barotropic atmosphere. It will be found that propagation of large scale atmospheric waves depends crucially on horizontal divergence. A small Rossby number in Rossby waves is not sufficient for the waves to have a small ageostrophic component, because the two-dimensional classical Rossby waves do not manifest the geostrophic balance as good as observed in the atmosphere.展开更多
Helicobacter pylori infection has been significantly linked to Peptic Ulcer Disease and Gastric Cancer.Metabolomic fingerprinting may offer a principal way of early diagnosis and to understand the molecular mechanism ...Helicobacter pylori infection has been significantly linked to Peptic Ulcer Disease and Gastric Cancer.Metabolomic fingerprinting may offer a principal way of early diagnosis and to understand the molecular mechanism of H.pylori-induced pathogenicity.The rationale of the study is to explore the underlying distinct metabolic mechanisms of H.pylori-induced PUD and to identify potential biomarkers for disease diagnosis and associated risks using Gas chromatography/mass spectrometry.GC/MS-based analytical method was used to compare metabolic profiles of healthy controls(N=20)and peptic ulcer patients(N=45).Acquired metabolomic data were analyzed by constructing a diagnostic model using principal component analysis and a non-parametric two-tailed paired Wilcoxon analysis to identify disease-specific metabolic biomarkers.A total of 75 low-molecular-weight endogenous metabolites were detected during comparative metabolomic analysis of PUD vs.healthy gut tissues,among which 16 metabolites are being proposed to be diagnostic markers of Human PUD.Perturbations related to amino acids,carbohydrates,fatty acids,organic acids,and sterol metabolism were significantly revealed during this differential metabolomic profiling.Results convincingly suggest that metabolic profiles can contribute immensely in early diagnosis of the disease and understanding molecular mechanisms of disease progression for predicting novel drug targets for prophylactic and anaphylactic measures.展开更多
We have examined, in Part Ⅰ, the propagation mechanism and geostrophic property of classical Rossby waves in a non-divergent barotropic atmosphere. As we found that the non-divergent Rossby waves do not propagate in ...We have examined, in Part Ⅰ, the propagation mechanism and geostrophic property of classical Rossby waves in a non-divergent barotropic atmosphere. As we found that the non-divergent Rossby waves do not propagate in a hydrostatically equilibrium atmosphere, and do not manifest a good geostrophic property, an alternative large scale circulation pattern of geostrophic waves has been proposed (McHall, 1991a). The propagation mechanism and geostrophic property of these waves are examined in the present study.展开更多
In this paper, a robust model predictive control approach is proposed for a class of uncertain systems with time-varying, linear fractional transformation perturbations. By adopting a sequence of feedback control laws...In this paper, a robust model predictive control approach is proposed for a class of uncertain systems with time-varying, linear fractional transformation perturbations. By adopting a sequence of feedback control laws instead of a single one, the control performance can be improved and the region of attraction can be enlarged compared with the existing model predictive control （MPC） approaches. Moreover, a synthesis approach of MPC is developed to achieve high performance with lower on-line computational burden. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is verified by simulation examples.展开更多
Flapping-Wing Micro-Air Vehicles are likely to suffer from airflow perturbations.They can mimic the wing modulation of insects in airflow perturbations.However,our knowledge of wing modulation of insects to airflow pe...Flapping-Wing Micro-Air Vehicles are likely to suffer from airflow perturbations.They can mimic the wing modulation of insects in airflow perturbations.However,our knowledge of wing modulation of insects to airflow perturbations remains limited.Here,we subjected hoverflies to headwind and lateral gust perturbations and filmed their wing motions.Then,computational fluid dynamics was employed to estimate the effects of hoverflies’wing kinematic modulations.We also clipped off the antennae of hoverflies to test whether the wing kinematic modulations were different.Results show that hoverflies increase the mean positional angle and modulate the deviation angle to make the wing tip paths of upstroke and downstroke close to compensate for the pitch moment perturbations in the headwind gust.Hoverflies employ asymmetric responses in positional angle in the lateral gust.The stroke amplitude of the left(right)wing increases(decreases)and the mean positional angle of the left(right)wing decreases(increases)during the right lateral gust.Antennae have little effect on the wing kinematic modulations in the lateral gust.These asymmetric responses produce a roll moment,tilting the body to resist the side force generated by the gust.This is a typical helicopter model employed by hoverflies to alleviate the gust.These results provide insight into the remarkable capacity of hoverflies to contend with gusts and can also inspire the design of flapping-wing micro-air vehicles.展开更多
This paper is devoted to the study of second order nonlinear difference equations. A Nonlocal Perturbation of a Dirichlet Boundary Value Problem is considered. An exhaustive study of the related Green＇s function to t...This paper is devoted to the study of second order nonlinear difference equations. A Nonlocal Perturbation of a Dirichlet Boundary Value Problem is considered. An exhaustive study of the related Green＇s function to the linear part is done. The exact expression of the function is given, moreover the range of parameter for which it has constant sign is obtained. Using this, some existence results for the nonlinear problem are deduced from monotone iterative techniques, the classical Krasnoselski fixed point theorem or by application of recent fixed point theorems that combine both theories.展开更多
This note deals with the problem of stabilization/stability for neutral systems with nonlinear perturbations. A new stabilization/stability scheme is presented. Using improved Lyapunov functionals, less conservative s...This note deals with the problem of stabilization/stability for neutral systems with nonlinear perturbations. A new stabilization/stability scheme is presented. Using improved Lyapunov functionals, less conservative stabilization/stability conditions are derived for such systems based on linear matrix inequalities （LMI）. Numerical examples are provided to show that the proposed results significantly improve the allowed upper bounds of the delay size over some existing ones in the literature.展开更多
The impacts of initial perturbations on the computational stability of nonlinear evolution equations for non-conservative difference schemes and non-periodic boundary conditions are studied through theoretical analysi...The impacts of initial perturbations on the computational stability of nonlinear evolution equations for non-conservative difference schemes and non-periodic boundary conditions are studied through theoretical analysis and numerical experiments for the case of onedimensional equations.The sensitivity of the difference scheme to initial values is further analyzed.The results show that the computational stability primarily depends on the form of the initial values if the difference scheme and boundary conditions are determined.Thus,the computational stability is sensitive to the initial perturbations.展开更多
During a long-term Equatorial Plasma Bubbles(EPBs)occurrence between October 2020 and March 2021,a significant EPB suppression event was identified on November 22 and the observations from multi-instrument have been u...During a long-term Equatorial Plasma Bubbles(EPBs)occurrence between October 2020 and March 2021,a significant EPB suppression event was identified on November 22 and the observations from multi-instrument have been utilized to investigate this event.Global-scale Observations of the Limb and Disk(GOLD)satellite observed prominent EPBs between 23:40 UT and 23:55 UT during the long-term occurrence days.However,no dark stripes representing EPBs were observed on November 22,and the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly(EIA)structure remained intact.The Total Electron Content(TEC)maps show that these EPBs appeared in the region between 35°W and 65°W longitudes and the magnitudes of the TEC loss in EPBs regions were about 20 TECU.Except for 22 November,the S4 index was consistently greater than 0.6 throughout November,indicating significant ionospheric scintillation.The Rate Of TEC Index(ROTI)maps revealed that the spatial extent and intensity of EPBs increased after their suppression,and the EPBs were locally generated.The swarm electron density measurements indicated that the variation amplitudes of EPBs at 510 km altitude were approximately 3 to 5 times larger than that at 460 km altitude.The impact region of EPBs at 510 km was between 15°S and 20°N latitudes,while at 460 km,it was between 0°and 17°N latitudes.During the period of EPB suppression,the average h’f at three ionosonde stations decreased by about 50 km,and the vertical drift velocity(V z)approached~0 m/s while it was more than 20 m/s during the long-term occurrence.展开更多
基金supported by the joint funds of the Chinese National Natural Science Foundation(NSFC)(Grant No.U2242213)the funds of the NSFC(Grant No.42341209)+2 种基金the National Key Research and Development(R&D)Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China(Grant No.2021YFC3000902)the National Science Foundation for Young Scholars(Grant No.42205166)the Joint Research Project for Meteorological Capacity Improvement(Grant No.22NLTSQ008)。
文摘Pangu-Weather(PGW),trained with deep learning–based methods(DL-based model),shows significant potential for global medium-range weather forecasting.However,the interpretability and trustworthiness of global medium-range DLbased models raise many concerns.This study uses the singular vector(SV)initial condition(IC)perturbations of the China Meteorological Administration's Global Ensemble Prediction System(CMA-GEPS)as inputs of PGW for global ensemble prediction(PGW-GEPS)to investigate the ensemble forecast sensitivity of DL-based models to the IC errors.Meanwhile,the CMA-GEPS forecasts serve as benchmarks for comparison and verification.The spatial structures and prediction performance of PGW-GEPS are discussed and compared to CMA-GEPS based on seasonal ensemble experiments.The results show that the ensemble mean and dispersion of PGW-GEPS are similar to those of CMA-GEPS in the medium range but with smoother forecasts.Meanwhile,PGW-GEPS is sensitive to the SV IC perturbations.Specifically,PGWGEPS can generate realistic ensemble spread beyond the sub-synoptic scale(wavenumbers≤64)with SV IC perturbations.However,PGW's kinetic energy is significantly reduced at the sub-synoptic scale,leading to error growth behavior inconsistent with CMA-GEPS at that scale.Thus,this behavior indicates that the effective resolution of PGW-GEPS is beyond the sub-synoptic scale and is limited to predicting mesoscale atmospheric motions.In terms of the global mediumrange ensemble prediction performance,the probability prediction skill of PGW-GEPS is comparable to CMA-GEPS in the extratropic when they use the same IC perturbations.That means that PGW has a general ability to provide skillful global medium-range forecasts with different ICs from numerical weather prediction.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42107163 and 42320104003)support from the G.Albert Shoemaker endowment.
文摘Hydraulic fracturing then fluid circulation in enhanced geothermal system(EGS)reservoirs have been shown to induce seismicity remote from the stimulation-potentially generated by the distal projection of thermoporoelastic stresses.We explore this phenomenon by evaluating stress perturbations resulting from stimulation of a single stage of hydraulic fracturing that is followed by thermal depletion of a prismatic zone adjacent to the hydraulic fracture.We use Coulomb failure stress to assess the effect of resulting stress perturbations on instability on adjacent critically-stressed faults.Results show that hydraulic fracturing in a single stage is capable of creating stress perturbations at distances to 1000 m that reach 10^(-5)-10^(-4)MPa.At a closer distance,the magnitude of stress perturbations increases even further.The stress perturbation induced by temperature depletion could also reach 10^(-3)-10^(-2)MPa within 1000 m-much higher than that by hydraulic fracturing.Considering that a critical change in Coulomb failure stress for fault instability is 10^(-2)MPa,a single stage of hydraulic fracturing and thermal drawdown are capable of reactivating critically-stressed faults at distances within 200 m and 1000 m,respectively.These results have important implications for understanding the distribution and magnitudes of stress perturbations driven by thermoporoelastic effects and the associated seismicity during the simulation and early production of EGS reservoirs.
基金supported by the National Magnetic Confinement Fusion Energy R&D Program of China (Nos.2018YFE0309103 and 2019YFE03010004)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos.12475222,12205122,and 51821005)Hubei International Science and Technology Cooperation Projects (No.2022EHB003)。
文摘A large number of runaway electrons(REs)generated during disruption can cause significant damage to next-generation large-scale tokamaks.The influence of three-dimensional(3D)helical magnetic perturbations on the suppression of RE generation was explored using a set of 3D helical coils in J-TEXT tokamak,which can excite m/n=-2/2 helical magnetic perturbations.Experimental evidence shows that the-2/2 magnetic perturbations caused by the opposite coil current direct plasma toward the high-field side,simultaneously enhancing the magnetic fluctuations,which would enhance the radial loss of REs and even prevent RE generation.On the other hand,-2/2 magnetic perturbations can also reduce the cooling time during the disruption phase and generate a population of high-energy REs,which can interact with high-frequency magnetic fluctuations and in turn suppress RE generation.The critical helical coil current was found to correlate with electron density,requiring higher coil currents at higher densities.According to the statistical analysis of RE generation at different electron densities,the applied-2/2 magnetic perturbations can increase the magnetic fluctuations to the same level at lower electron densities,which can decrease the threshold electron density for RE suppression.This will be beneficial for RE mitigation in future large tokamak devices.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42005005 and 42030607)the Science and Technology Department of Shaanxi Province(Grant No.2024JC-YBQN-0248)+2 种基金the Education Department of Shaanxi Province(Grant No.23JK0686)a Xi'an Science and Technology Project(Grant No.22GXFW0131)the Young Talent fund of the University Association for Science and Technology in Shaanxi(Grant No.20210706)。
文摘The practical predictability of hail precipitation rates is significantly influenced by initial meteorological perturbations,stemming from various uncertainty sources.This study thoroughly assessed the predictability of hail precipitation rates in both climatologically and flow-dependent perturbed ensembles(CEns and FEns).These ensembles incorporated initial meteorological uncertainties derived separately from two operational ensembles.Leveraging the Weather Research and Forecasting model,we conducted cloud-resolving simulations of an idealized hailstorm.The practical predictability of hail responded comparably to both climatological and flow-dependent uncertainties,which was revealed across the entire ensemble of 50 members.However,a notable difference emerged when comparing the peak hail precipitation rates among the top 10 and bottom 10 members.From a thermodynamic perspective,the primary source of uncertainty in hail precipitation lay in the significant variations in temperature stratification,particularly at-20℃and-40℃.On the microphysical front,perturbations within CEns generated greater uncertainty in the process of rainwater collection by hail,contributing significantly to the microphysical growth mechanisms of hail.Furthermore,the findings reveal a stronger dependency of hail precipitation uncertainty on thermodynamic perturbations compared to kinematic perturbations.These insights enhance the comprehension of the practical predictability of hail and contribute significantly to the understanding of ensemble forecasting for hail events.
基金supported in part by the Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 62372395in part by the Research Foundation of Education Bureau of Hunan Province under Grant No.24A0105in part by the Postgraduate Scientific Research Innovation Project of Hunan Province(Grant No.CX20230546).
文摘In recent years,universal adversarial per-turbation(UAP)has attracted the attention of many re-searchers due to its good generalization.However,in order to generate an appropriate UAP,current methods usually require either accessing the original dataset or meticulously constructing optimization functions and proxy datasets.In this paper,we aim to elimi-nate any dependency on proxy datasets and explore a method for generating Universal Adversarial Pertur-bations(UAP)on a single image.After revisiting re-search on UAP,we discovered that the key to gener-ating UAP lies in the accumulation of Individual Ad-versarial Perturbation(IAP)gradient,which prompted us to study the method of accumulating gradients from an IAP.We designed a simple and effective process to generate UAP,which only includes three steps:pre-cessing,generating an IAP and scaling the perturba-tions.Through our proposed process,any IAP gener-ated on an image can be constructed into a UAP with comparable performance,indicating that UAP can be generated free of data.Extensive experiments on var-ious classifiers and attack approaches demonstrate the superiority of our method on efficiency and aggressiveness.
基金sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41930971,42330111,and 42405061)the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project“Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility”(Earth Lab).
文摘Orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations(O-CNOPs)have been used to generate ensemble forecasting members for achieving high forecasting skill of high-impact weather and climate events.However,highly efficient calculations for O-CNOPs are still challenging in the field of ensemble forecasting.In this study,we combine a gradient-based iterative idea with the Gram‒Schmidt orthogonalization,and propose an iterative optimization method to compute O-CNOPs.This method is different from the original sequential optimization method,and allows parallel computations of O-CNOPs,thus saving a large amount of computational time.We evaluate this method by using the Lorenz-96 model on the basis of the ensemble forecasting ability achieved and on the time consumed for computing O-CNOPs.The results demonstrate that the parallel iterative method causes O-CNOPs to yield reliable ensemble members and to achieve ensemble forecasting skills similar to or even slightly higher than those produced by the sequential method.Moreover,the parallel method significantly reduces the computational time for O-CNOPs.Therefore,the parallel iterative method provides a highly effective and efficient approach for calculating O-CNOPs for ensemble forecasts.Expectedly,it can play an important role in the application of the O-CNOPs to realistic ensemble forecasts for high-impact weather and climate events.
基金funded by National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(Nos.12075053,11505021 and 11975068)by National Key R&D Program of China(No.2022YFE 03060002)+1 种基金by Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.2232024G-10)supported by the U.S.DoE Office of Science(No.DE-FG02–95ER54309)。
文摘Toroidal torques,generated by the resonant magnetic perturbation(RMP)and acting on the plasma column,are numerically systematically investigated for an ITER baseline scenario.The neoclassical toroidal viscosity(NTV),in particular the resonant portion,is found to provide the dominant contribution to the total toroidal torque under the slow plasma flow regime in ITER.While the electromagnetic torque always opposes the plasma flow,the toroidal torque associated with the Reynolds stress enhances the plasma flow independent of the flow direction.A peculiar double-peak structure for the net NTV torque is robustly computed for ITER,as the toroidal rotation frequency is scanned near the zero value.This structure is found to be ultimately due to a non-monotonic behavior of the wave-particle resonance integral(over the particle pitch angle)in the superbanana plateau NTV regime in ITER.These findings are qualitatively insensitive to variations of a range of factors including the wall resistivity,the plasma pedestal flow and the assumed frequency of the rotating RMP field.
基金sponsored by the National Key R&D Program of China through Grant No. 2017YFC1501603the National Natural Science Foundation of China through Grant No. 41975136the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation through Grant No. 2019A1515011118。
文摘To improve the ensemble prediction system of the tropical regional atmosphere model for the South China Sea(TREPS) in predicting landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs), the impacts of three new implementing strategies for surface and model physics perturbations in TREPS were evaluated for 19 TCs making landfall in China during 2014–16. For sea surface temperature(SST) perturbations, spatially uncorrelated random perturbations were replaced with spatially correlated ones. The multiplier f, which is used to form perturbed tendency in the Stochastically Perturbed Parameterization Tendency(SPPT) scheme, was inflated in regions with evident convective activity(f-inflated SPPT). Lastly, the Stochastically Perturbed Parameterization(SPP) scheme with 14 perturbed parameters selected from the planetary boundary layer, surface layer, microphysics, and cumulus convection parameterizations was added. Overall, all these methods improved forecasts more significantly for non-intensifying than intensifying TCs. Compared with f-inflated SPPT,the spatially correlated SST perturbations generally showed comparable performance but were more(less) skillful for intensifying(non-intensifying) TCs. The advantages of the spatially correlated SST perturbations and f-inflated SPPT were mainly present in the deterministic guidance for both TC track and wind and in the probabilistic guidance for reliability of wind. For intensifying TCs, adding SPP led to mixed impacts with significant improvements in probability-matched mean of modest winds and in probabilistic forecasts of rainfall;while for non-intensifying TCs, adding SPP frequently led to positive impacts on the deterministic guidance for track, intensity, strong winds, and moderate rainfall and on the probabilistic guidance for wind and discrimination of rainfall.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 91437113)the Special Fund for Meteorological Scientific Research in the Public Interest (Grant Nos. GYHY201506007 and GYHY201006015)+1 种基金the National 973 Program of China (Grant Nos. 2012CB417204 and 2012CB955200)the Scientific Research & Innovation Projects for Academic Degree Students of Ordinary Universities of Jiangsu (Grant No. KYLX 0827)
文摘An initial conditions （ICs） perturbation method was developed with the aim to improve an operational regional ensemble prediction system （REPS）. Three issues were identified and investigated： （1） the impacts of perturbation scale on the ensemble spread and forecast skill of the REPS; （2） the scale characteristic of the IC perturbations of the REPS; and （3） whether the REPS＇s skill could be improved by adding large-scale information to the IC perturbations. Numerical experiments were conducted to reveal the impact of perturbation scale on the ensemble spread and forecast skill. The scales of IC perturbations from the REPS and an operational global ensemble prediction system （GEPS） were analyzed. A ＂multi-scale blending＂ （MSB） IC perturbation scheme was developed, and the main findings can be summarized as follows： The growth rates of the ensemble spread of the REPS are sensitive to the scale of the IC perturbations; the ensemble forecast skills can benefit from large-scale perturbations; the global ensemble IC perturbations exhibit more power at larger scales, while the regional ensemble IC perturbations contain more power at smaller scales; the MSB method can generate IC perturbations by combining the small-scale component from the REPS and the large-scale component from the GEPS; the energy norm growth of the MSB-generated perturbations can be appropriate at all forecast lead times; and the MSB-based REPS shows higher skill than the original system, as determined by ensemble forecast verification.
文摘In this paper, we consider the problem of robust stability for a class of linear systems with interval time-varying delay under nonlinear perturbations using Lyapunov-Krasovskii （LK） functional approach. By partitioning the delay-interval into two segments of equal length, and evaluating the time-derivative of a candidate LK functional in each segment of the delay-interval, a less conservative delay-dependent stability criterion is developed to compute the maximum allowable bound for the delay-range within which the system under consideration remains asymptotically stable. In addition to the delay-bi-segmentation analysis procedure, the reduction in conservatism of the proposed delay-dependent stability criterion over recently reported results is also attributed to the fact that the time-derivative of the LK functional is bounded tightly using a newly proposed bounding condition without neglecting any useful terms in the delay-dependent stability analysis. The analysis, subsequently, yields a stable condition in convex linear matrix inequality （LMI） framework that can be solved non-conservatively at boundary conditions using standard numerical packages. Furthermore, as the number of decision variables involved in the proposed stability criterion is less, the criterion is computationally more effective. The effectiveness of the proposed stability criterion is validated through some standard numerical examples.
文摘This study reexamines the propagation mechanism and geostrophic property of the classical two-dimensional Rossby waves in a non-divergent barotropic atmosphere. It will be found that propagation of large scale atmospheric waves depends crucially on horizontal divergence. A small Rossby number in Rossby waves is not sufficient for the waves to have a small ageostrophic component, because the two-dimensional classical Rossby waves do not manifest the geostrophic balance as good as observed in the atmosphere.
基金the UGC,New Delhi awarding Maulana Azad National Fellowship to Ms.Gaganjot[Grant No.F1-17.1/2015-16/MANF-2015-17-PUN-53869]The authors would like to extend their sincere appreciation to the Researchers Supporting Project No.(RSP-2021/19),King Saud University,Riyadh,Saudi Arabia.
文摘Helicobacter pylori infection has been significantly linked to Peptic Ulcer Disease and Gastric Cancer.Metabolomic fingerprinting may offer a principal way of early diagnosis and to understand the molecular mechanism of H.pylori-induced pathogenicity.The rationale of the study is to explore the underlying distinct metabolic mechanisms of H.pylori-induced PUD and to identify potential biomarkers for disease diagnosis and associated risks using Gas chromatography/mass spectrometry.GC/MS-based analytical method was used to compare metabolic profiles of healthy controls(N=20)and peptic ulcer patients(N=45).Acquired metabolomic data were analyzed by constructing a diagnostic model using principal component analysis and a non-parametric two-tailed paired Wilcoxon analysis to identify disease-specific metabolic biomarkers.A total of 75 low-molecular-weight endogenous metabolites were detected during comparative metabolomic analysis of PUD vs.healthy gut tissues,among which 16 metabolites are being proposed to be diagnostic markers of Human PUD.Perturbations related to amino acids,carbohydrates,fatty acids,organic acids,and sterol metabolism were significantly revealed during this differential metabolomic profiling.Results convincingly suggest that metabolic profiles can contribute immensely in early diagnosis of the disease and understanding molecular mechanisms of disease progression for predicting novel drug targets for prophylactic and anaphylactic measures.
文摘We have examined, in Part Ⅰ, the propagation mechanism and geostrophic property of classical Rossby waves in a non-divergent barotropic atmosphere. As we found that the non-divergent Rossby waves do not propagate in a hydrostatically equilibrium atmosphere, and do not manifest a good geostrophic property, an alternative large scale circulation pattern of geostrophic waves has been proposed (McHall, 1991a). The propagation mechanism and geostrophic property of these waves are examined in the present study.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 60934007, No. 61074060)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (No. 20090460627)+1 种基金Shanghai Postdoctoral Scientific Program (No. 10R21414600)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Special Support (No. 201003272)
文摘In this paper, a robust model predictive control approach is proposed for a class of uncertain systems with time-varying, linear fractional transformation perturbations. By adopting a sequence of feedback control laws instead of a single one, the control performance can be improved and the region of attraction can be enlarged compared with the existing model predictive control （MPC） approaches. Moreover, a synthesis approach of MPC is developed to achieve high performance with lower on-line computational burden. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is verified by simulation examples.
基金This work was supported by a grant from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(11672028).
文摘Flapping-Wing Micro-Air Vehicles are likely to suffer from airflow perturbations.They can mimic the wing modulation of insects in airflow perturbations.However,our knowledge of wing modulation of insects to airflow perturbations remains limited.Here,we subjected hoverflies to headwind and lateral gust perturbations and filmed their wing motions.Then,computational fluid dynamics was employed to estimate the effects of hoverflies’wing kinematic modulations.We also clipped off the antennae of hoverflies to test whether the wing kinematic modulations were different.Results show that hoverflies increase the mean positional angle and modulate the deviation angle to make the wing tip paths of upstroke and downstroke close to compensate for the pitch moment perturbations in the headwind gust.Hoverflies employ asymmetric responses in positional angle in the lateral gust.The stroke amplitude of the left(right)wing increases(decreases)and the mean positional angle of the left(right)wing decreases(increases)during the right lateral gust.Antennae have little effect on the wing kinematic modulations in the lateral gust.These asymmetric responses produce a roll moment,tilting the body to resist the side force generated by the gust.This is a typical helicopter model employed by hoverflies to alleviate the gust.These results provide insight into the remarkable capacity of hoverflies to contend with gusts and can also inspire the design of flapping-wing micro-air vehicles.
基金partially supported by Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia,Spain,and FEDER,Projects MTM2013-43014-P and MTM 2016-75140-P
文摘This paper is devoted to the study of second order nonlinear difference equations. A Nonlocal Perturbation of a Dirichlet Boundary Value Problem is considered. An exhaustive study of the related Green＇s function to the linear part is done. The exact expression of the function is given, moreover the range of parameter for which it has constant sign is obtained. Using this, some existence results for the nonlinear problem are deduced from monotone iterative techniques, the classical Krasnoselski fixed point theorem or by application of recent fixed point theorems that combine both theories.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.10571036).
文摘This note deals with the problem of stabilization/stability for neutral systems with nonlinear perturbations. A new stabilization/stability scheme is presented. Using improved Lyapunov functionals, less conservative stabilization/stability conditions are derived for such systems based on linear matrix inequalities （LMI）. Numerical examples are provided to show that the proposed results significantly improve the allowed upper bounds of the delay size over some existing ones in the literature.
基金supported by the"Strategic Priority Research Program-Climate Change:Carbon Budget and Relevant Issues"of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No.XDA01020304)
文摘The impacts of initial perturbations on the computational stability of nonlinear evolution equations for non-conservative difference schemes and non-periodic boundary conditions are studied through theoretical analysis and numerical experiments for the case of onedimensional equations.The sensitivity of the difference scheme to initial values is further analyzed.The results show that the computational stability primarily depends on the form of the initial values if the difference scheme and boundary conditions are determined.Thus,the computational stability is sensitive to the initial perturbations.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42104009)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2022M720988)Postgraduate Research&Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province(No.KYCX22_0663)。
文摘During a long-term Equatorial Plasma Bubbles(EPBs)occurrence between October 2020 and March 2021,a significant EPB suppression event was identified on November 22 and the observations from multi-instrument have been utilized to investigate this event.Global-scale Observations of the Limb and Disk(GOLD)satellite observed prominent EPBs between 23:40 UT and 23:55 UT during the long-term occurrence days.However,no dark stripes representing EPBs were observed on November 22,and the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly(EIA)structure remained intact.The Total Electron Content(TEC)maps show that these EPBs appeared in the region between 35°W and 65°W longitudes and the magnitudes of the TEC loss in EPBs regions were about 20 TECU.Except for 22 November,the S4 index was consistently greater than 0.6 throughout November,indicating significant ionospheric scintillation.The Rate Of TEC Index(ROTI)maps revealed that the spatial extent and intensity of EPBs increased after their suppression,and the EPBs were locally generated.The swarm electron density measurements indicated that the variation amplitudes of EPBs at 510 km altitude were approximately 3 to 5 times larger than that at 460 km altitude.The impact region of EPBs at 510 km was between 15°S and 20°N latitudes,while at 460 km,it was between 0°and 17°N latitudes.During the period of EPB suppression,the average h’f at three ionosonde stations decreased by about 50 km,and the vertical drift velocity(V z)approached~0 m/s while it was more than 20 m/s during the long-term occurrence.
