[Objective] The research aimed to analyze a regional heavy rainstorm process in North Henan.[Method] Based on routine weather chart,rainfall station in county and town,satellite cloud chart,etc.,by using synoptic diag...[Objective] The research aimed to analyze a regional heavy rainstorm process in North Henan.[Method] Based on routine weather chart,rainfall station in county and town,satellite cloud chart,etc.,by using synoptic diagnostic method,formation reason of the regional heavy rainstorm weather in North Henan during 18-19 August,2010 was analyzed initially from large-scale circulation background,influence system,physical quantity field and terrain influence.[Result] The strong precipitation had obvious meso-scale characteristics.The main influence systems were ground meso-scale convergence line,shear line at the middle and low layers,low-level southwest jet.The low-level southwest jet transported sufficient water vapor for generation of the heavy rainstorm.The ground converge line increased convergence ascending movement and water vapor convergence.Atmospheric divergence convergence center at the low layer was just in North Henan.Strong rise zone of the vertical velocity was also in North Henan.It provided sufficient dynamic condition for rainstorm generation.Generation,development and movement of the ground meso-scale convergence line had good indications for occurrence times and falling zones of the rainstorm and short-time strong precipitation.The big-value zones of K index and θse at the low layer both presented Ω distribution at the vertical direction,which had indicative significance for strong precipitation forecast.The strong precipitation center corresponded with fork horn terrain,and orographic rain characteristics were obvious.[Conclusion] The research provided reference basis for forecast of this kind of rainstorm.展开更多
The variation in near-surface wind speed is a key dynamic parameter in the orographic effect of precipitation over eastern China.In this study,we used the latest high-resolution outputs from six GCMs in CMIP6-HighResM...The variation in near-surface wind speed is a key dynamic parameter in the orographic effect of precipitation over eastern China.In this study,we used the latest high-resolution outputs from six GCMs in CMIP6-HighResMIP to evaluate the performance of high-resolution models in simulating the orographic precipitation characteristics of typical mountainous areas in summer over eastern China.The orographic precipitation under warming scenarios was projected and constrained according to observational data.The results indicated that during the contemporary climate reference period(1979-2009),although the relationship between model-simulated near-surface wind speed and orographic light rain frequency was consistently stable,the sensitivity of the orographic light rain frequency to surface wind variability was generally underestimated,with a deviation approximately 24.1% lower than the observational values.The estimated orographic light rain frequency corrected based on the observed near-surface wind speed under a 1.5℃ warming scenario,was 36.1% lower than that of the contemporary period;this reduction was 8.6 times that without the wind speed constraint(4.2%).The MRI-AGCM3-2-S model,with a longer dataset,demonstrated relatively stable reductions in orographic light rain frequency under different warming scenarios(1.5℃,2℃,3℃,and 4℃)after the application of wind speed constraints.In all cases,the reductions exceeded those for the predictions made without the wind speed constraint.展开更多
文摘[Objective] The research aimed to analyze a regional heavy rainstorm process in North Henan.[Method] Based on routine weather chart,rainfall station in county and town,satellite cloud chart,etc.,by using synoptic diagnostic method,formation reason of the regional heavy rainstorm weather in North Henan during 18-19 August,2010 was analyzed initially from large-scale circulation background,influence system,physical quantity field and terrain influence.[Result] The strong precipitation had obvious meso-scale characteristics.The main influence systems were ground meso-scale convergence line,shear line at the middle and low layers,low-level southwest jet.The low-level southwest jet transported sufficient water vapor for generation of the heavy rainstorm.The ground converge line increased convergence ascending movement and water vapor convergence.Atmospheric divergence convergence center at the low layer was just in North Henan.Strong rise zone of the vertical velocity was also in North Henan.It provided sufficient dynamic condition for rainstorm generation.Generation,development and movement of the ground meso-scale convergence line had good indications for occurrence times and falling zones of the rainstorm and short-time strong precipitation.The big-value zones of K index and θse at the low layer both presented Ω distribution at the vertical direction,which had indicative significance for strong precipitation forecast.The strong precipitation center corresponded with fork horn terrain,and orographic rain characteristics were obvious.[Conclusion] The research provided reference basis for forecast of this kind of rainstorm.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2020YFA0608201)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42275180)。
文摘The variation in near-surface wind speed is a key dynamic parameter in the orographic effect of precipitation over eastern China.In this study,we used the latest high-resolution outputs from six GCMs in CMIP6-HighResMIP to evaluate the performance of high-resolution models in simulating the orographic precipitation characteristics of typical mountainous areas in summer over eastern China.The orographic precipitation under warming scenarios was projected and constrained according to observational data.The results indicated that during the contemporary climate reference period(1979-2009),although the relationship between model-simulated near-surface wind speed and orographic light rain frequency was consistently stable,the sensitivity of the orographic light rain frequency to surface wind variability was generally underestimated,with a deviation approximately 24.1% lower than the observational values.The estimated orographic light rain frequency corrected based on the observed near-surface wind speed under a 1.5℃ warming scenario,was 36.1% lower than that of the contemporary period;this reduction was 8.6 times that without the wind speed constraint(4.2%).The MRI-AGCM3-2-S model,with a longer dataset,demonstrated relatively stable reductions in orographic light rain frequency under different warming scenarios(1.5℃,2℃,3℃,and 4℃)after the application of wind speed constraints.In all cases,the reductions exceeded those for the predictions made without the wind speed constraint.
