The frequent and rapid onset of flash drought poses a serious threat to agriculture and ecosystems.Detecting human influences on flash droughts and estimating their future risks under climate change have attracted gre...The frequent and rapid onset of flash drought poses a serious threat to agriculture and ecosystems.Detecting human influences on flash droughts and estimating their future risks under climate change have attracted great attention.Focusing on a record-breaking flash drought event in the southeastern coastal region of China in summer 2020,the authors found that the suppression of convective precipitation and high temperature caused by the persistent high geopotential height anomalies and land-atmosphere dry coupling were important reasons for the rapid onset and strong intensity of the flash drought.Event attribution analysis with the latest CMIP6 data showed that anthropogenic climate change has not only increased the likelihood of an onset speed and intensity like those of the 2020 flash drought event,by about 93%±20%and 18%±15%,respectively,but also increased the chance of their simultaneous occurrence,by about 86%±38%,according to their joint probability distribution.Under a business-as-usual future scenario(SSP2-4.5),the likelihood of such an onset speed,intensity,and their simultaneous occurrence will further increase,by 85%±33%,49%±8%,and 81%±48%,respectively,as compared with current climate conditions.This study highlights the importance of anthropogenic climate change for accelerating and intensifying flash drought in the southeastern coastal region of China.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 41875105]the National Key R&D Program of China[grant number 2018YFA0606002]the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province for Distinguished Young Scholars[grant number BK20211540]。
文摘The frequent and rapid onset of flash drought poses a serious threat to agriculture and ecosystems.Detecting human influences on flash droughts and estimating their future risks under climate change have attracted great attention.Focusing on a record-breaking flash drought event in the southeastern coastal region of China in summer 2020,the authors found that the suppression of convective precipitation and high temperature caused by the persistent high geopotential height anomalies and land-atmosphere dry coupling were important reasons for the rapid onset and strong intensity of the flash drought.Event attribution analysis with the latest CMIP6 data showed that anthropogenic climate change has not only increased the likelihood of an onset speed and intensity like those of the 2020 flash drought event,by about 93%±20%and 18%±15%,respectively,but also increased the chance of their simultaneous occurrence,by about 86%±38%,according to their joint probability distribution.Under a business-as-usual future scenario(SSP2-4.5),the likelihood of such an onset speed,intensity,and their simultaneous occurrence will further increase,by 85%±33%,49%±8%,and 81%±48%,respectively,as compared with current climate conditions.This study highlights the importance of anthropogenic climate change for accelerating and intensifying flash drought in the southeastern coastal region of China.
基金The authors are grateful to Japanese WDC-C2 KY0T0 AE index service for presenting AU,AL and AE indices and to Goddard Space Flight Center,NASA for presenting data of the interpanaetary condition and auroradata.Thanks are also given to Cluster and Double-Star Data Center for providing data used in the study.This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.40390152)the State Key Basic Research Program(Grant No.G200000784)the XK100010404 of Beijing City,and the Space Weather Laboratory,Center for Space Science and Applied Research,CAS.
