Based on Bayesian network (BN) and information flow (IF),a new machine learning-based model named IFBN is put forward to interpolate missing time series of multiple ocean variables. An improved BN structural learning ...Based on Bayesian network (BN) and information flow (IF),a new machine learning-based model named IFBN is put forward to interpolate missing time series of multiple ocean variables. An improved BN structural learning algorithm with IF is designed to mine causal relationships among ocean variables to build network structure. Nondirectional inference mechanism of BN is applied to achieve the synchronous interpolation of multiple missing time series. With the IFBN,all ocean variables are placed in a causal network visually,making full use of information about related variables to fill missing data. More importantly,the synchronous interpolation of multiple variables can avoid model retraining when interpolative objects change. Interpolation experiments show that IFBN has even better interpolation accuracy,effectiveness and stability than existing methods.展开更多
A regional reanalysis product-China Ocean Reanalysis（CORA）-has been developed for the China＇s seas and the adjacent areas. In this study, the intraseasonal variabilities（ISVs） in CORA are assessed by comparing wi...A regional reanalysis product-China Ocean Reanalysis（CORA）-has been developed for the China＇s seas and the adjacent areas. In this study, the intraseasonal variabilities（ISVs） in CORA are assessed by comparing with observations and two other reanalysis products（ECCO2 and SODA）. CORA shows a better performance in capturing the intraseasonal sea surface temperatures（SSTs） and the intraseasonal sea surface heights（SSHs） than ECCO2 and SODA do, probably due to its high resolution, stronger response to the intraseasonal forcing in the atmosphere（especially the Madden-Julian Oscillation）, and more available regional data for assimilation. But at the subsurface, the ISVs in CORA are likely to be weaker than reality, which is probably attributed to rare observational data for assimilation and weak diapycnal eddy diffusivity in the CORA model. According to the comparison results, CORA is a good choice for the study related to variabilities at the surface, but cares have to be taken for the study focusing on the subsurface processes.展开更多
Ommastrephes bartramii is an ecologically dependent species and has great commercial values among the AsiaPacific countries. This squid widely inhabits the North Pacific, one of the most dynamic marine environments in...Ommastrephes bartramii is an ecologically dependent species and has great commercial values among the AsiaPacific countries. This squid widely inhabits the North Pacific, one of the most dynamic marine environments in the world, subjecting to multi-scale climatic events such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation（PDO）. Commercial fishery data from the Chinese squid-jigging fleets during 1995-2011 are used to evaluate the influences of climatic and oceanic environmental variations on the spatial distribution of O. bartramii. Significant interannual and seasonal variability are observed in the longitudinal and latitudinal gravity centers（LONG and LATG） of fishing ground of O. bartramii. The LATG mainly occurred in the waters with the suitable ranges of environmental variables estimated by the generalized additive model. The apparent north-south spatial shift in the annual LATG appeares to be associated with the PDO phenomenon and is closely related to the sea surface temperature（SST）and sea surface height（SSH） on the fishing ground, whereas the mixed layer depth（MLD） might contribute limited impacts to the distribution pattern of O. bartramii. The warm PDO regimes tend to yield cold SST and low SSH, resulting in a southward shift of LATG, while the cold PDO phases provid warm SST and elevated SSH,resulting in a northward shift of LATG. A regression model is developed to help understand and predict the fishing ground distributions of O. bartramii and improve the fishery management.展开更多
One way to identify the mechanisms that are crucial to Arctic climate change is to use existing data that exhibit interannual-to-decadal variability in the sea ice and ocean interior due to atmospheric forcing. Since ...One way to identify the mechanisms that are crucial to Arctic climate change is to use existing data that exhibit interannual-to-decadal variability in the sea ice and ocean interior due to atmospheric forcing. Since around 1960s, valuable geochemical data of the ocean interior, together with atmospheric and sea ice data, have been analyzed and examined in a coupled ice-ocean model with an idealized configuration of the Arctic Basin. This is fundamentally driven by negative salt flux, in addition to atmospheric circulation and cooling. This strategy has a clear advantage over more sophisticated models with higher resolution that require extensive data collections for verification. Around 1990, the dominant atmospheric mode shifted from the Northern Annular Mode （NAM） to the Arctic Dipole Mode （ADM）. The variability of sea ice cover was explained by these two modes sequentially and reproduced in the model. In particular, the geochemical fields indicated a movement of the Transpolar Drift Stream due to the NAM and an oscillation of the Pacific water between the Atlantic and Pacific sides due to the ADM. Both these features were reproduced reasonably well by the oceanic tracers in the model, including the time lags of about one third of the oscillation periods. Thus, this strategy can suggest methods and locations for monitoring oceanographic responses to Arctic climate change.展开更多
We use wavelet transform to study the time series of the Earth＇s rotation rate （length-of-day, LOD）, the axial components of atmospheric angular momentum （AAM） and oceanic angular momentum （OAM） in the period 1...We use wavelet transform to study the time series of the Earth＇s rotation rate （length-of-day, LOD）, the axial components of atmospheric angular momentum （AAM） and oceanic angular momentum （OAM） in the period 1962-2005, and discuss the quasi-biennial oscillations （QBO） of LOD change. The results show that the QBO of LOD change varies remarkably in amplitude and phase. It was weak before 1978, then became much stronger and reached maximum values during the strong El Nino events in around 1983 and 1997. Results from analyzing the axial AAM indicate that the QBO signals in axial AAM are extremely consistent with the QBOs of LOD change. During 1963-2003, the QBO variance in the axial AAM can explain about 99.0% of that of the LOD, in other words, all QBO signals of LOD change are almost excited by the axial AAM, while the weak QBO signals of the axial OAM are quite different from those of the LOD and the axial AAM in both time-dependent characteristics and magnitudes. The combined effects of the axial AAM and OAM can explain about 99.1% of the variance of QBO in LOD change during this period.展开更多
The change of sea surface temperature（SST） in the southern Indian Ocean（SIO） during the recent six decades has been analyzed based on oceanic reanalysis and model, as well as atmospheric data. The results show tha...The change of sea surface temperature（SST） in the southern Indian Ocean（SIO） during the recent six decades has been analyzed based on oceanic reanalysis and model, as well as atmospheric data. The results show that a thermal regime shift in SIO during the 1960 s, which is not caught enough attentions, has been of equal magnitude to the linear warming since 1970. Empirical Orthogonal Function（EOF） analyses reveal that a thermal shift is combined with atmospheric changes such as the weakening of westerly during the period of 1960–1967. Inner dynamic connections can be defined that when the westerly winds turn weak, the anticyclonic wind circulation between westerly winds and the trade winds decreases, which further reduces the SST to a negative peak in this period. It is noted that the shifts in the 1960 s are also evident for Southern Hemisphere. For example, subtropical high and the entire westerly winds belt at high latitudes both change dramatically in the 1960 s. This large-scaled process maybe link to the change of southern annular mode（SAM）.展开更多
An integral quality control(QC)procedure that integrates various QC methods and considers the design indexes and operational status of the instruments for the observations of drifting air-sea interface buoy was develo...An integral quality control(QC)procedure that integrates various QC methods and considers the design indexes and operational status of the instruments for the observations of drifting air-sea interface buoy was developed in the order of basic in-spection followed by targeted QC.The innovative method of combining a moving Hampel filter and local anomaly detection com-plies with statistical laws and physical processes,which guarantees the QC performance of meteorological variables.Two sets of observation data were used to verify the applicability and effectiveness of the QC procedure,and the effect was evaluated using the observations of the Kuroshio Extension Observatory buoy as the reference.The results showed that the outliers in the time series can be correctly identified and processed,and the quality of data improved significantly.The linear correlation between the quality-controlled observations and the reference increased,and the difference decreased.The correlation coefficient of wind speed before and after QC increased from 0.77 to 0.82,and the maximum absolute error decreased by approximately 2.8ms^(-1).In addition,air pressure and relative humidity were optimized by 10^(-3)–10^(-2) orders of magnitude.For the sea surface temperature,the weight of coefficients of the continuity test algorithm was optimized based on the sea area of data acquisition,which effectively expanded the applicability of the algorithm.展开更多
A 110-year ensemble simulation of an ocean general circulation model(OGCM)was analyzed to identify the modulation of salinity interdecadal variability on El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)amplitude in the tropica...A 110-year ensemble simulation of an ocean general circulation model(OGCM)was analyzed to identify the modulation of salinity interdecadal variability on El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)amplitude in the tropical Pacific during 1901-2010.The simulating results show that sea surface salinity(SSS)variation in the region exhibits notable and coherent interdecadal variability signal,which is closely associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation(IPO).As salinity increases or reduces,the SSS modulations on ENSO amplitude during its warm/cold events vary asymmetrically with positive/negative IPO phases.Physically,salinity interdecadal variability can enhance or reduce ENSO-related conditions in upper-ocean stratification,contributing noticeably to ENSO variability.Salinity anomalies associated with the mixed layer depth and barrier layer thickness can modulate ENSO amplitude during positive and negative IPO phases,resulting in the asymmetry of sea surface temperature(SST)anomaly in the tropical Pacific.During positive IPO phases,SSS interdecadal variability contributes positively to El Niño amplitude but negatively to La Niña amplitude by enhancing or reducing SSS interannual variability,and vice versa during negative IPO phases.Quantitatively,the results indicate that the modulation of the ENSO amplitude by the SSS interdecadal variability is 15%-28%during negative IPO phases and 30%-20%during positive IPO phases,respectively.Evidently,the SSS interdecadal variability associated with IPO and its modulation on ENSO amplitude in the tropical Pacific are among factors essentially contributing ENSO diversity.展开更多
Severe flooding occurred in southern and northern China during the summer of 2016 when the 2015 super El Nio decayed to a normal condition. However, the mean precipitation during summer（June–July-August） 2016 does ...Severe flooding occurred in southern and northern China during the summer of 2016 when the 2015 super El Nio decayed to a normal condition. However, the mean precipitation during summer（June–July-August） 2016 does not show significant anomalies, suggesting that — over East Asia（EA） — seasonal mean anomalies have limited value in representing hydrological hazards. Scrutinizing season-evolving precipitation anomalies associated with 16 El Nio episodes during 1957–2016 reveals that, over EA, the spatiotemporal patterns among the four categories of El Nio events are quite variable, due to a large range of variability in the intensity and evolution of El Nio events and remarkable subseasonal migration of the rainfall anomalies. The only robust seasonal signal is the dry anomalies over central North China during the El Nio developing summer. Distinguishing strong and weak El Nio impacts is important. Only strong El Nio events can persistently enhance EA subtropical frontal precipitation from the peak season of El Nio to the ensuing summer, by stimulating intense interaction between the anomalous western Pacific anticyclone（WPAC） and underlying dipolar sea surface temperature anomalies in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, thereby maintaining the WPAC and leading to a prolonged El Nio impact on EA. A weak El Nio may also enhance the post-El Nio summer rainfall over EA, but through a different physical process： the WPAC re-emerges as a forced response to the rapid cooling in the eastern Pacific. The results suggest that the skillful prediction of rainfall over continental EA requires the accurate prediction of not only the strength and evolution of El Nio, but also the subseasonal migration of EA rainfall anomalies.展开更多
This paper summarizes the progress of large-scale air-sea interaction studies that has been achieved in China in the four-year period from July 1998 to July 2002, including seven aspects in the area of the air-sea int...This paper summarizes the progress of large-scale air-sea interaction studies that has been achieved in China in the four-year period from July 1998 to July 2002, including seven aspects in the area of the air-sea interaction, namely air-sea interaction related to the tropical Pacific Ocean, monsoon-related air-sea interaction, air-sea interaction in the north Pacific Ocean, air-sea interaction in the Indian Ocean, air-sea interactions in the global oceans, field experiments, and oceanic cruise surveys. However more attention has been paid to the first and the second aspects because a large number of papers in the reference literature for preparing and organizing this paper are concentrated in the tropical Pacific Ocean, such as the ENSO process with its climatic effects and dynamics, and the monsoon-related air-sea interaction. The literature also involves various phenomena with their different time and spatial scales such as intraseasonal, annual, interannual, and interdecadal variabilities in the atmosphere/ocean interaction system, reflecting the contemporary themes in the four-year period at the beginning of an ara from the post-TOGA to CLIVAR studies. Apparently, it is a difficult task to summarize the great progress in this area, as it is extracted from a large quantity of literature, although the authors tried very hard.展开更多
A simplified parameter identification algorithm for the inverse refractive indexes of the mesoscale eddy and the internal wave in the ocean is proposed by researching into the incident field and the scattered field th...A simplified parameter identification algorithm for the inverse refractive indexes of the mesoscale eddy and the internal wave in the ocean is proposed by researching into the incident field and the scattered field that comprise the total field of a wave in the ocean, considering that the total field and the incident field satisfy the Helmholtz equations and the scattered field conforms to the Sommerfield radiation condition. Two examples for the calculation of refractive index and inverse refractive index respectively of the mesoscale eddy and the internal wave demonstrate the applicability of the algorithm.展开更多
The tropical Indian Ocean circulation system includes the equatorial and near-equatorial circulations, the marginal sea circulation, and eddies. The dynamic processes of these circulation systems show significant mult...The tropical Indian Ocean circulation system includes the equatorial and near-equatorial circulations, the marginal sea circulation, and eddies. The dynamic processes of these circulation systems show significant multi-scale variability associated with the Indian Monsoon and the Indian Ocean dipole. This paper summarizes the research progress over recent years on the tropical Indian Ocean circulation system based on the large-scale hydrological observations and numerical simulations by the South China Sea Institute of Oceanology(SCSIO), Chinese Academy of Sciences. Results show that:(1) the wind-driven Kelvin and Rossby waves and eastern boundary-reflected Rossby waves regulate the formation and evolution of the Equatorial Undercurrent and the Equatorial Intermediate Current;(2) the equatorial wind-driven dynamics are the main factor controlling the inter-annual variability of the thermocline in the eastern Indian Ocean upwelling;(3) the equatorial waves transport large amounts of energy into the Bay of Bengal in forms of coastal Kelvin and reflected free Rossby waves. Several unresolved issues within the tropical Indian Ocean are discussed:(i) the potential effects of the momentum balance and the basin resonance on the variability of the equatorial circulation system, and(ii) the potential contribution of wind-driven dynamics to the life cycle of the eastern Indian Ocean upwelling. This paper also briefly introduces the international Indian Ocean investigation project of the SCSIO, which will advance the study of the multi-scale variability of the tropical Indian Ocean circulation system, and provide a theoretical and data basis to support marine environmental security for the countries around the Maritime Silk Road.展开更多
Estimation of economic loss is essential for stakeholders to manage flood risk.Most flooding events are closely related to extreme precipitation,which is influenced by large-scale climate factors.Considering the lagge...Estimation of economic loss is essential for stakeholders to manage flood risk.Most flooding events are closely related to extreme precipitation,which is influenced by large-scale climate factors.Considering the lagged influence of climate factors,we developed a flood-risk assessment framework and used Hunan Province in China as an example to illustrate the risk assessment process.The main patterns of precipitation—as a connection between climate factors and flood economic losses—were extracted by the empirical orthogonal function(EOF)analysis.We identified the correlative climate factors through crosscorrelation analysis and established a multiple stepwise linear regression model to forecast future precipitation patterns.Risk assessment was done based on the main precipitation patterns.Because the economic dataset is limited,a Monte Carlo simulation was applied to simulate 1000-year flood loss events under each precipitation regime(rainy,dry,normal years)to obtain aggregate exceedance probability(AEP)and occurrence exceedance probability(OEP)curves.We found that precipitation has a strong influence on economic loss risk,with the highest risk in rainy years.Regional economic development imbalances are the potential reason for the varying economic loss risks in different regions of Hunan Province.As the climate indices with at least several months prediction lead time are strong indicators in predicting precipitation,the framework we developed can estimate economic loss risk several months in advance.展开更多
The 2015/16 El Nio developed from weak warm conditions in late 2014 and NINO3.4 reached 3℃ in November 2015. We describe the characteristics of the evolution of the 2015/16 El Nio using various data sets including ...The 2015/16 El Nio developed from weak warm conditions in late 2014 and NINO3.4 reached 3℃ in November 2015. We describe the characteristics of the evolution of the 2015/16 El Nio using various data sets including SST, surface winds,outgoing longwave radiation and subsurface temperature from an ensemble operational ocean reanalyses, and place this event in the context of historical ENSO events since 1979. One salient feature about the 2015/16 El Nio was a large number of westerly wind bursts and downwelling oceanic Kelvin waves(DWKVs). Four DWKVs were observed in April-November 2015 that initiated and enhanced the eastern-central Pacific warming. Eastward zonal current anomalies associated with DWKVs advected the warm pool water eastward in spring/summer. An upwelling Kelvin wave(UWKV) emerged in early November 2015 leading to a rapid decline of the event. Another outstanding feature was that NINO4 reached a historical high(1.7℃), which was 1℃(0.8℃) higher than that of the 1982/83(1997/98) El Nio . Although NINO3 was comparable to that of the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Nio , NINO1+2 was much weaker. Consistently, enhanced convection was displaced 20 degree westward, and the maximum D20 anomaly was about 1/3.1/2 of that in 1997 and 1982 near the west coast of South America.展开更多
The intraseasonal variability(ISV) of sea level anomalies(SLAs) along the southern coast of Java and its interannual modulation were studied based on a gridded SLA product produced from the Archiving, Validation, and ...The intraseasonal variability(ISV) of sea level anomalies(SLAs) along the southern coast of Java and its interannual modulation were studied based on a gridded SLA product produced from the Archiving, Validation, and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanography dataset. This ISV is induced by the propagation of intraseasonal Kelvin waves derived from the central equatorial Indian Ocean(EIO). Wavelet analysis and empirical mode decomposition of intraseasonal SLAs along the southern coast of Java showed interannual variability, with weaker ISV events during El Ni years and positive Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) years than during normal years. This interannual modulation of the ISV is influenced by the El Ni-Southern Oscillation teleconnection via the Walker Circulation and eastern Indian Ocean upwelling connected to IOD events. The anomalously weaker Walker Circulation during El Ni events generates anomalous surface easterlies over the central-eastern tropical Indian Ocean that produce upwelling Kelvin waves in the EIO and offshore water transport along the southern coasts of Sumatra and Java, resulting in negative SLAs along the southern coast of Java. These negative SLAs damp the positive SLAs induced by the eastward propagation of downwelling Kelvin waves from the central EIO during the following March–May of El Ni years. Similar features of SLAs and sea surface wind anomalies also occur during positive IOD years. Consequently, the sea level ISV along the southern coast of Java is weaker in El Ni and positive IOD years.展开更多
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41875061 and 41976188the“Double First-Class”Research Program of National University of Defense Technology under contract No.xslw05.
文摘Based on Bayesian network (BN) and information flow (IF),a new machine learning-based model named IFBN is put forward to interpolate missing time series of multiple ocean variables. An improved BN structural learning algorithm with IF is designed to mine causal relationships among ocean variables to build network structure. Nondirectional inference mechanism of BN is applied to achieve the synchronous interpolation of multiple missing time series. With the IFBN,all ocean variables are placed in a causal network visually,making full use of information about related variables to fill missing data. More importantly,the synchronous interpolation of multiple variables can avoid model retraining when interpolative objects change. Interpolation experiments show that IFBN has even better interpolation accuracy,effectiveness and stability than existing methods.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41206178,41376034,41276018 and 41321004the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities under contract No.2014B30514+1 种基金the open project supplied by the Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Information Technology,National Marine Data and Information Service,State Oceanic Administration:Effectiveness on the intraseasonal scale in CORA(2015–2016)the Predictability of Ocean Dynamical System Project under Contract No.151053
文摘A regional reanalysis product-China Ocean Reanalysis（CORA）-has been developed for the China＇s seas and the adjacent areas. In this study, the intraseasonal variabilities（ISVs） in CORA are assessed by comparing with observations and two other reanalysis products（ECCO2 and SODA）. CORA shows a better performance in capturing the intraseasonal sea surface temperatures（SSTs） and the intraseasonal sea surface heights（SSHs） than ECCO2 and SODA do, probably due to its high resolution, stronger response to the intraseasonal forcing in the atmosphere（especially the Madden-Julian Oscillation）, and more available regional data for assimilation. But at the subsurface, the ISVs in CORA are likely to be weaker than reality, which is probably attributed to rare observational data for assimilation and weak diapycnal eddy diffusivity in the CORA model. According to the comparison results, CORA is a good choice for the study related to variabilities at the surface, but cares have to be taken for the study focusing on the subsurface processes.
基金The National High-Tech R&D Program(863 Program)of China under contract No.2012AA092303the Project of Public Science and Technology Research Funds Projects of Ocean under contract No.20155014+3 种基金the National Key Technologies R&D Program of China under contract No.2013BAD13B00the Shanghai Universities First-Class Disciplines Project(Fisheries)the Funding Program for Outstanding Dissertations in Shanghai Ocean Universitythe Shanghai Ocean University International Center for Marine Studies
文摘Ommastrephes bartramii is an ecologically dependent species and has great commercial values among the AsiaPacific countries. This squid widely inhabits the North Pacific, one of the most dynamic marine environments in the world, subjecting to multi-scale climatic events such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation（PDO）. Commercial fishery data from the Chinese squid-jigging fleets during 1995-2011 are used to evaluate the influences of climatic and oceanic environmental variations on the spatial distribution of O. bartramii. Significant interannual and seasonal variability are observed in the longitudinal and latitudinal gravity centers（LONG and LATG） of fishing ground of O. bartramii. The LATG mainly occurred in the waters with the suitable ranges of environmental variables estimated by the generalized additive model. The apparent north-south spatial shift in the annual LATG appeares to be associated with the PDO phenomenon and is closely related to the sea surface temperature（SST）and sea surface height（SSH） on the fishing ground, whereas the mixed layer depth（MLD） might contribute limited impacts to the distribution pattern of O. bartramii. The warm PDO regimes tend to yield cold SST and low SSH, resulting in a southward shift of LATG, while the cold PDO phases provid warm SST and elevated SSH,resulting in a northward shift of LATG. A regression model is developed to help understand and predict the fishing ground distributions of O. bartramii and improve the fishery management.
基金The financial support by the Japanese Ministry of Education,Culture,Sport,Science,and Technology was fundamental to this work
文摘One way to identify the mechanisms that are crucial to Arctic climate change is to use existing data that exhibit interannual-to-decadal variability in the sea ice and ocean interior due to atmospheric forcing. Since around 1960s, valuable geochemical data of the ocean interior, together with atmospheric and sea ice data, have been analyzed and examined in a coupled ice-ocean model with an idealized configuration of the Arctic Basin. This is fundamentally driven by negative salt flux, in addition to atmospheric circulation and cooling. This strategy has a clear advantage over more sophisticated models with higher resolution that require extensive data collections for verification. Around 1990, the dominant atmospheric mode shifted from the Northern Annular Mode （NAM） to the Arctic Dipole Mode （ADM）. The variability of sea ice cover was explained by these two modes sequentially and reproduced in the model. In particular, the geochemical fields indicated a movement of the Transpolar Drift Stream due to the NAM and an oscillation of the Pacific water between the Atlantic and Pacific sides due to the ADM. Both these features were reproduced reasonably well by the oceanic tracers in the model, including the time lags of about one third of the oscillation periods. Thus, this strategy can suggest methods and locations for monitoring oceanographic responses to Arctic climate change.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.
文摘We use wavelet transform to study the time series of the Earth＇s rotation rate （length-of-day, LOD）, the axial components of atmospheric angular momentum （AAM） and oceanic angular momentum （OAM） in the period 1962-2005, and discuss the quasi-biennial oscillations （QBO） of LOD change. The results show that the QBO of LOD change varies remarkably in amplitude and phase. It was weak before 1978, then became much stronger and reached maximum values during the strong El Nino events in around 1983 and 1997. Results from analyzing the axial AAM indicate that the QBO signals in axial AAM are extremely consistent with the QBOs of LOD change. During 1963-2003, the QBO variance in the axial AAM can explain about 99.0% of that of the LOD, in other words, all QBO signals of LOD change are almost excited by the axial AAM, while the weak QBO signals of the axial OAM are quite different from those of the LOD and the axial AAM in both time-dependent characteristics and magnitudes. The combined effects of the axial AAM and OAM can explain about 99.1% of the variance of QBO in LOD change during this period.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China for Distinguished Young Scholars and Innovative Research Groups under contract Nos 41525019 and 41521005the Project of the State Oceanic Administration of China for Global Climate Change under contract No.GASI-IPOVAI-02the CAS/SAFEA International Partnership Program for Creative Research Teams
文摘The change of sea surface temperature（SST） in the southern Indian Ocean（SIO） during the recent six decades has been analyzed based on oceanic reanalysis and model, as well as atmospheric data. The results show that a thermal regime shift in SIO during the 1960 s, which is not caught enough attentions, has been of equal magnitude to the linear warming since 1970. Empirical Orthogonal Function（EOF） analyses reveal that a thermal shift is combined with atmospheric changes such as the weakening of westerly during the period of 1960–1967. Inner dynamic connections can be defined that when the westerly winds turn weak, the anticyclonic wind circulation between westerly winds and the trade winds decreases, which further reduces the SST to a negative peak in this period. It is noted that the shifts in the 1960 s are also evident for Southern Hemisphere. For example, subtropical high and the entire westerly winds belt at high latitudes both change dramatically in the 1960 s. This large-scaled process maybe link to the change of southern annular mode（SAM）.
基金supported by the Natural Resources Development Special Fund Project of Jiangsu Province(No.JSZRHYKJ202009)the Taishan Scholar Funds(No.tsqn 201812022)+2 种基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.202072001)the Guangxi Key Laboratory of Marine Disaster in the Beibu Gulf,Beibu Gulf University(No.2021KF03)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42176020).
文摘An integral quality control(QC)procedure that integrates various QC methods and considers the design indexes and operational status of the instruments for the observations of drifting air-sea interface buoy was developed in the order of basic in-spection followed by targeted QC.The innovative method of combining a moving Hampel filter and local anomaly detection com-plies with statistical laws and physical processes,which guarantees the QC performance of meteorological variables.Two sets of observation data were used to verify the applicability and effectiveness of the QC procedure,and the effect was evaluated using the observations of the Kuroshio Extension Observatory buoy as the reference.The results showed that the outliers in the time series can be correctly identified and processed,and the quality of data improved significantly.The linear correlation between the quality-controlled observations and the reference increased,and the difference decreased.The correlation coefficient of wind speed before and after QC increased from 0.77 to 0.82,and the maximum absolute error decreased by approximately 2.8ms^(-1).In addition,air pressure and relative humidity were optimized by 10^(-3)–10^(-2) orders of magnitude.For the sea surface temperature,the weight of coefficients of the continuity test algorithm was optimized based on the sea area of data acquisition,which effectively expanded the applicability of the algorithm.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42030410)the Laoshan Laboratory(No.LSKJ 202202403)supported by the Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUIST。
文摘A 110-year ensemble simulation of an ocean general circulation model(OGCM)was analyzed to identify the modulation of salinity interdecadal variability on El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)amplitude in the tropical Pacific during 1901-2010.The simulating results show that sea surface salinity(SSS)variation in the region exhibits notable and coherent interdecadal variability signal,which is closely associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation(IPO).As salinity increases or reduces,the SSS modulations on ENSO amplitude during its warm/cold events vary asymmetrically with positive/negative IPO phases.Physically,salinity interdecadal variability can enhance or reduce ENSO-related conditions in upper-ocean stratification,contributing noticeably to ENSO variability.Salinity anomalies associated with the mixed layer depth and barrier layer thickness can modulate ENSO amplitude during positive and negative IPO phases,resulting in the asymmetry of sea surface temperature(SST)anomaly in the tropical Pacific.During positive IPO phases,SSS interdecadal variability contributes positively to El Niño amplitude but negatively to La Niña amplitude by enhancing or reducing SSS interannual variability,and vice versa during negative IPO phases.Quantitatively,the results indicate that the modulation of the ENSO amplitude by the SSS interdecadal variability is 15%-28%during negative IPO phases and 30%-20%during positive IPO phases,respectively.Evidently,the SSS interdecadal variability associated with IPO and its modulation on ENSO amplitude in the tropical Pacific are among factors essentially contributing ENSO diversity.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41420104002)the National Research Foundation of Korea through a Global Research Laboratory grant of the Korean Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (Grant No. 2011-0021927)+1 种基金the Atmosphere–Ocean Research Center (AORC)funded by Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST)
文摘Severe flooding occurred in southern and northern China during the summer of 2016 when the 2015 super El Nio decayed to a normal condition. However, the mean precipitation during summer（June–July-August） 2016 does not show significant anomalies, suggesting that — over East Asia（EA） — seasonal mean anomalies have limited value in representing hydrological hazards. Scrutinizing season-evolving precipitation anomalies associated with 16 El Nio episodes during 1957–2016 reveals that, over EA, the spatiotemporal patterns among the four categories of El Nio events are quite variable, due to a large range of variability in the intensity and evolution of El Nio events and remarkable subseasonal migration of the rainfall anomalies. The only robust seasonal signal is the dry anomalies over central North China during the El Nio developing summer. Distinguishing strong and weak El Nio impacts is important. Only strong El Nio events can persistently enhance EA subtropical frontal precipitation from the peak season of El Nio to the ensuing summer, by stimulating intense interaction between the anomalous western Pacific anticyclone（WPAC） and underlying dipolar sea surface temperature anomalies in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, thereby maintaining the WPAC and leading to a prolonged El Nio impact on EA. A weak El Nio may also enhance the post-El Nio summer rainfall over EA, but through a different physical process： the WPAC re-emerges as a forced response to the rapid cooling in the eastern Pacific. The results suggest that the skillful prediction of rainfall over continental EA requires the accurate prediction of not only the strength and evolution of El Nio, but also the subseasonal migration of EA rainfall anomalies.
基金supported by the National Key Basic Science Program:Argo Observation and Research on the Pacific-Indian Ocean Warm Pool(Grant No.2002CB714001),which is funded by the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology.
文摘This paper summarizes the progress of large-scale air-sea interaction studies that has been achieved in China in the four-year period from July 1998 to July 2002, including seven aspects in the area of the air-sea interaction, namely air-sea interaction related to the tropical Pacific Ocean, monsoon-related air-sea interaction, air-sea interaction in the north Pacific Ocean, air-sea interaction in the Indian Ocean, air-sea interactions in the global oceans, field experiments, and oceanic cruise surveys. However more attention has been paid to the first and the second aspects because a large number of papers in the reference literature for preparing and organizing this paper are concentrated in the tropical Pacific Ocean, such as the ENSO process with its climatic effects and dynamics, and the monsoon-related air-sea interaction. The literature also involves various phenomena with their different time and spatial scales such as intraseasonal, annual, interannual, and interdecadal variabilities in the atmosphere/ocean interaction system, reflecting the contemporary themes in the four-year period at the beginning of an ara from the post-TOGA to CLIVAR studies. Apparently, it is a difficult task to summarize the great progress in this area, as it is extracted from a large quantity of literature, although the authors tried very hard.
文摘A simplified parameter identification algorithm for the inverse refractive indexes of the mesoscale eddy and the internal wave in the ocean is proposed by researching into the incident field and the scattered field that comprise the total field of a wave in the ocean, considering that the total field and the incident field satisfy the Helmholtz equations and the scattered field conforms to the Sommerfield radiation condition. Two examples for the calculation of refractive index and inverse refractive index respectively of the mesoscale eddy and the internal wave demonstrate the applicability of the algorithm.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2017YFC1405100)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41521005,41476011,41706027,41676013)+4 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong(Grant No.2016A030310015)the Open Fund of the Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves,Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.KLOCW1604)the Open Fund of the State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography(Grant No.LTOZZ1702)the MEL Visiting Fellowship(Grant No.MELRS1640)the Guangzhou Science and Technology Foundation(Grant No.201804010133)
文摘The tropical Indian Ocean circulation system includes the equatorial and near-equatorial circulations, the marginal sea circulation, and eddies. The dynamic processes of these circulation systems show significant multi-scale variability associated with the Indian Monsoon and the Indian Ocean dipole. This paper summarizes the research progress over recent years on the tropical Indian Ocean circulation system based on the large-scale hydrological observations and numerical simulations by the South China Sea Institute of Oceanology(SCSIO), Chinese Academy of Sciences. Results show that:(1) the wind-driven Kelvin and Rossby waves and eastern boundary-reflected Rossby waves regulate the formation and evolution of the Equatorial Undercurrent and the Equatorial Intermediate Current;(2) the equatorial wind-driven dynamics are the main factor controlling the inter-annual variability of the thermocline in the eastern Indian Ocean upwelling;(3) the equatorial waves transport large amounts of energy into the Bay of Bengal in forms of coastal Kelvin and reflected free Rossby waves. Several unresolved issues within the tropical Indian Ocean are discussed:(i) the potential effects of the momentum balance and the basin resonance on the variability of the equatorial circulation system, and(ii) the potential contribution of wind-driven dynamics to the life cycle of the eastern Indian Ocean upwelling. This paper also briefly introduces the international Indian Ocean investigation project of the SCSIO, which will advance the study of the multi-scale variability of the tropical Indian Ocean circulation system, and provide a theoretical and data basis to support marine environmental security for the countries around the Maritime Silk Road.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(grant No.41671503)。
文摘Estimation of economic loss is essential for stakeholders to manage flood risk.Most flooding events are closely related to extreme precipitation,which is influenced by large-scale climate factors.Considering the lagged influence of climate factors,we developed a flood-risk assessment framework and used Hunan Province in China as an example to illustrate the risk assessment process.The main patterns of precipitation—as a connection between climate factors and flood economic losses—were extracted by the empirical orthogonal function(EOF)analysis.We identified the correlative climate factors through crosscorrelation analysis and established a multiple stepwise linear regression model to forecast future precipitation patterns.Risk assessment was done based on the main precipitation patterns.Because the economic dataset is limited,a Monte Carlo simulation was applied to simulate 1000-year flood loss events under each precipitation regime(rainy,dry,normal years)to obtain aggregate exceedance probability(AEP)and occurrence exceedance probability(OEP)curves.We found that precipitation has a strong influence on economic loss risk,with the highest risk in rainy years.Regional economic development imbalances are the potential reason for the varying economic loss risks in different regions of Hunan Province.As the climate indices with at least several months prediction lead time are strong indicators in predicting precipitation,the framework we developed can estimate economic loss risk several months in advance.
文摘The 2015/16 El Nio developed from weak warm conditions in late 2014 and NINO3.4 reached 3℃ in November 2015. We describe the characteristics of the evolution of the 2015/16 El Nio using various data sets including SST, surface winds,outgoing longwave radiation and subsurface temperature from an ensemble operational ocean reanalyses, and place this event in the context of historical ENSO events since 1979. One salient feature about the 2015/16 El Nio was a large number of westerly wind bursts and downwelling oceanic Kelvin waves(DWKVs). Four DWKVs were observed in April-November 2015 that initiated and enhanced the eastern-central Pacific warming. Eastward zonal current anomalies associated with DWKVs advected the warm pool water eastward in spring/summer. An upwelling Kelvin wave(UWKV) emerged in early November 2015 leading to a rapid decline of the event. Another outstanding feature was that NINO4 reached a historical high(1.7℃), which was 1℃(0.8℃) higher than that of the 1982/83(1997/98) El Nio . Although NINO3 was comparable to that of the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Nio , NINO1+2 was much weaker. Consistently, enhanced convection was displaced 20 degree westward, and the maximum D20 anomaly was about 1/3.1/2 of that in 1997 and 1982 near the west coast of South America.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41506036, 41476025 & 41306031)NSFC-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers (Grant No. U1406405)+1 种基金China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Funded Project (Grant No. 2014M561883)Basic Scientific Fund for National Public Research Institutes of China (Grant No. 2014G26)
文摘The intraseasonal variability(ISV) of sea level anomalies(SLAs) along the southern coast of Java and its interannual modulation were studied based on a gridded SLA product produced from the Archiving, Validation, and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanography dataset. This ISV is induced by the propagation of intraseasonal Kelvin waves derived from the central equatorial Indian Ocean(EIO). Wavelet analysis and empirical mode decomposition of intraseasonal SLAs along the southern coast of Java showed interannual variability, with weaker ISV events during El Ni years and positive Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) years than during normal years. This interannual modulation of the ISV is influenced by the El Ni-Southern Oscillation teleconnection via the Walker Circulation and eastern Indian Ocean upwelling connected to IOD events. The anomalously weaker Walker Circulation during El Ni events generates anomalous surface easterlies over the central-eastern tropical Indian Ocean that produce upwelling Kelvin waves in the EIO and offshore water transport along the southern coasts of Sumatra and Java, resulting in negative SLAs along the southern coast of Java. These negative SLAs damp the positive SLAs induced by the eastward propagation of downwelling Kelvin waves from the central EIO during the following March–May of El Ni years. Similar features of SLAs and sea surface wind anomalies also occur during positive IOD years. Consequently, the sea level ISV along the southern coast of Java is weaker in El Ni and positive IOD years.
