Nusantara,the new capital city of Indonesia,and its surrounding areas experienced intense heavy rainfall on 15-16 March 2022,leading to devastating and widespread flooding.However,the factors triggering such intense h...Nusantara,the new capital city of Indonesia,and its surrounding areas experienced intense heavy rainfall on 15-16 March 2022,leading to devastating and widespread flooding.However,the factors triggering such intense heavy rainfall and the underlying physical mechanisms are still not fully understood.Using high-resolution GSMaP(Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation)data,we show that a mesoscale convective system(MCS)was the primary cause of the heavy rainfall event.The rainfall peak occurred during the MCS's mature stage at 1800 UTC 15 March 2022,and diminished as it entered the dissipation stage.To understand the large-scale environmental factors affecting the MCS event,we analyzed contributions from the MJO,equatorial waves,and low-frequency variability to column water vapor and moisture flux convergence.Results indicate a substantial influence of the MJO and equatorial waves on lower-level(boundary layer)meridional moisture flux convergence during the pre-MCS stage and initiation,with their contributions accounting for up to80%during the growth phase.Moreover,while La Nina and the Asian monsoon had negligible impacts on MCS moisture supply,we find a large contribution from the residual term of the water vapour budget during the maturation and decay phases of the MCS.This suggests that local forcing(such as small-scale convection,local evaporation,land-surface feedback,and topography)also contributed to modulation of the intensity and duration of the MCS.The results of this study can help in our understanding of the potential causes of extreme rainfall in Nusantara and could be leveraged to improve rainstorm forecasting and risk management across the region in the future.展开更多
利用INSTANT(The International Nusantara Stratification and Transport,努沙登加拉层结及输运的国际联合观测计划)计划所测得的流场数据,研究了ITF(Indonesian Throughflow,印度尼西亚贯穿流)在主要流出海峡——龙目海峡(Lombok Stra...利用INSTANT(The International Nusantara Stratification and Transport,努沙登加拉层结及输运的国际联合观测计划)计划所测得的流场数据,研究了ITF(Indonesian Throughflow,印度尼西亚贯穿流)在主要流出海峡——龙目海峡(Lombok Strait)、翁拜海峡(Ombai Strait)和帝汶海峡(Timor Passage)随深度和时间的变化,并对表层和温跃层的流速进行了功率谱分析。研究发现,ITF流场在龙目和翁拜海峡表层有显著的年循环,在季风转换期间各个层次上海流都会出现反转,从印度洋流向海峡内;而帝汶海峡在300m以下出现反转流。3个海峡的表层流都以年周期为主,温跃层的流以半年变化为主,并且都有丰富的季节内变化。高频部分,除了在龙目海峡表层K1日潮占优外,各海峡均以M2半日潮为主。展开更多
基金supported by the Budget Execution(Allotment)Document,National Research and Innovation Agency(BRIN)in 2022(Grant No.SP DIPA-124.01.1.690504/2022)。
文摘Nusantara,the new capital city of Indonesia,and its surrounding areas experienced intense heavy rainfall on 15-16 March 2022,leading to devastating and widespread flooding.However,the factors triggering such intense heavy rainfall and the underlying physical mechanisms are still not fully understood.Using high-resolution GSMaP(Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation)data,we show that a mesoscale convective system(MCS)was the primary cause of the heavy rainfall event.The rainfall peak occurred during the MCS's mature stage at 1800 UTC 15 March 2022,and diminished as it entered the dissipation stage.To understand the large-scale environmental factors affecting the MCS event,we analyzed contributions from the MJO,equatorial waves,and low-frequency variability to column water vapor and moisture flux convergence.Results indicate a substantial influence of the MJO and equatorial waves on lower-level(boundary layer)meridional moisture flux convergence during the pre-MCS stage and initiation,with their contributions accounting for up to80%during the growth phase.Moreover,while La Nina and the Asian monsoon had negligible impacts on MCS moisture supply,we find a large contribution from the residual term of the water vapour budget during the maturation and decay phases of the MCS.This suggests that local forcing(such as small-scale convection,local evaporation,land-surface feedback,and topography)also contributed to modulation of the intensity and duration of the MCS.The results of this study can help in our understanding of the potential causes of extreme rainfall in Nusantara and could be leveraged to improve rainstorm forecasting and risk management across the region in the future.
文摘利用INSTANT(The International Nusantara Stratification and Transport,努沙登加拉层结及输运的国际联合观测计划)计划所测得的流场数据,研究了ITF(Indonesian Throughflow,印度尼西亚贯穿流)在主要流出海峡——龙目海峡(Lombok Strait)、翁拜海峡(Ombai Strait)和帝汶海峡(Timor Passage)随深度和时间的变化,并对表层和温跃层的流速进行了功率谱分析。研究发现,ITF流场在龙目和翁拜海峡表层有显著的年循环,在季风转换期间各个层次上海流都会出现反转,从印度洋流向海峡内;而帝汶海峡在300m以下出现反转流。3个海峡的表层流都以年周期为主,温跃层的流以半年变化为主,并且都有丰富的季节内变化。高频部分,除了在龙目海峡表层K1日潮占优外,各海峡均以M2半日潮为主。
