In order to investigate the effects of trace gases on climate variation in the atmosphere, we have devel- oped a primitive equation two-dimensional dynamical climate model with five levels. A series of simula- tion re...In order to investigate the effects of trace gases on climate variation in the atmosphere, we have devel- oped a primitive equation two-dimensional dynamical climate model with five levels. A series of simula- tion results and discussions are shown in this paper, indicating that the model is useful and can correctly reproduced the main feature of the general atmospheric circulation and its seasonal changes. In addition, we have discussed the role of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau on the formation process of summer monsoon in South Asia and found that the thermal effect of the Qjnghai-Xizang Plateau may not be the main factor controlling the onset and the variation of the summer monsoon in South Asia.展开更多
The Earth system is a complex,nonlinear,and highly coupled system that integrates the atmosphere,land,ocean,cryosphere,lithosphere,and biosphere through various physical,chemical,and biological processes.The Earth Sys...The Earth system is a complex,nonlinear,and highly coupled system that integrates the atmosphere,land,ocean,cryosphere,lithosphere,and biosphere through various physical,chemical,and biological processes.The Earth System Model(ESM)is an advanced mathematical-physical representation of this intricate system.It extends beyond the traditional climate system models that focus primarily on the physical representation of atmospheric,terrestrial,and oceanic states,to encompass environmental and ecological dynamics.Consequently,ESMs are essential tools not only for weather and climate prediction but also for studying environmental and ecological evolution,human-induced climate impacts,and strategies in climate and ecological management.展开更多
In this paper, the CCMOB model is used to study the effect of the deforestation on the climate of China and its neighboring regions. On the assumption that the forest in China would be replaced by the vegetation(such ...In this paper, the CCMOB model is used to study the effect of the deforestation on the climate of China and its neighboring regions. On the assumption that the forest in China would be replaced by the vegetation(such as grassland), the distribution of the albedo changed was calculated. The initial fields used were taken from the FGGE zonal mean data on 16 July, 1979. In the control simulation, the observed albedo data were used to modify the physical parameters of the original model. The control and sensitive experiments were run each for 210 days, in which the external forcing fields were fixed in July. As a result, we find that the East Asian Monsoon, Hadley cell and troposphere easterly jet are weakened for the deforestation in China. The precipitation and cloud amount over China are also decreased. The changes in evaporation and surface temperature are small. The results also show that the deforestation in China exerts a remarkable effect on the climate in the neighboring regions of China.展开更多
Land cover is one of the most basic input elements of land surface and climate models. Currently, the direct and indirect effects of land cover data on climate and climate change are receiving increasing attentions. I...Land cover is one of the most basic input elements of land surface and climate models. Currently, the direct and indirect effects of land cover data on climate and climate change are receiving increasing attentions. In this study, a high resolution(30 m) global land cover dataset(Globe Land30) produced by Chinese scientists was, for the first time, used in the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC_CSM) to assess the influences of land cover dataset on land surface and climate simulations. A two-step strategy was designed to use the Globe Land30 data in the model. First, the Globe Land30 data were merged with other satellite remote sensing and climate datasets to regenerate plant functional type(PFT) data fitted for the BCC_CSM. Second, the up-scaling based on an area-weighted approach was used to aggregate the fine-resolution Globe Land30 land cover type and area percentage with the coarser model grid resolutions globally. The Globe Land30-based and the BCC_CSM-based land cover data had generally consistent spatial distribution features, but there were some differences between them. The simulation results of the different land cover type dataset change experiments showed that effects of the new PFT data were larger than those of the new glaciers and water bodies(lakes and wetlands). The maximum value was attained when dataset of all land cover types were changed. The positive bias of precipitation in the mid-high latitude of the northern hemisphere and the negative bias in the Amazon, as well as the negative bias of air temperature in part of the southern hemisphere, were reduced when the Globe Land30-based data were used in the BCC_CSM atmosphere model. The results suggest that the Globe Land30 data are suitable for use in the BCC_CSM component models and can improve the performance of the land and atmosphere simulations.展开更多
The Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility,also known as Earth Lab,is a national-class key scientific and technological infrastructure project in China during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period.The project was offi...The Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility,also known as Earth Lab,is a national-class key scientific and technological infrastructure project in China during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period.The project was officially completed in Huairou Comprehensive National Science Center in October 2022.The objectives of the project are:(1)to explore the physical,chemical,and biological processes of the atmosphere,as well as the hydrosphere,cryosphere,lithosphere,and biosphere on Earth’s surface,and their interactions,and probe the effects of those interactions on the overall Earth system and regional environment over China;(2)to merge simulated and observed data to improve the accuracy of climate and environmental predictions,thereby providing scientific support for national efforts in disaster prevention and mitigation,addressing climate change,and improving atmospheric environmental governance;and(3)to promote interdisciplinary integration among various branches of Earth system science and propel China’s all-embracing advancements in this field to an internationally renowned level.This article reviews the international development trends of Earth system numerical simulation facilities,and particularly introduce the composition and functions,the main achievements and future plans of China’s“Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility”.展开更多
According to the nonlinear basic theory that a forced dissipative nonlinear system in a higher dimensional state space can be evolved into an attractor set of the descending dimension, a new method of reducing the deg...According to the nonlinear basic theory that a forced dissipative nonlinear system in a higher dimensional state space can be evolved into an attractor set of the descending dimension, a new method of reducing the degrees of freedom of the general circulation model (GCM) is given. The concrete way of it is: the time-dependent integral series of the model is decomposed through empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs), therefore the small number of the degrees of freedom supporting the attractor set of GCM can be formed, and then a simplified model can be derived when the EOFs are used as basis. The numerical simulation experiment has been done by using a theoretical model, and we are sure that the feasibility and effectiveness of the method can be proved.展开更多
The Coupling of three model components, WRF/PCE （polar climate extension version of weather research and forecasting model （WRF））, ROMS （regional ocean modeling system）, and CICE （community ice code）, has been...The Coupling of three model components, WRF/PCE （polar climate extension version of weather research and forecasting model （WRF））, ROMS （regional ocean modeling system）, and CICE （community ice code）, has been implemented, and the regional atmosphere-ocean-sea ice coupled model named WRF/PCE- ROMS-CICE has been validated against ERA-interim reanalysis data sets for 1989. To better understand the reasons that generate model biases, the WRF/PCE-ROMS-CICE results were compared with those of its components, the WRF/PCE and the ROMS-CICE. There are cold biases in surface air temperature （SAT） over the Arctic Ocean, which contribute to the sea ice concentration （SIC） and sea surface temperature （SST） biases in the results of the WRF/PCE-ROMS-CICE. The cold SAT biases also appear in results of the atmo- spheric component with a mild temperature in winter and similar temperature in summer. Compared to results from the WRF/PCE, due to influences of different distributions of the SIC and the SST and inclusion of interactions of air-sea-sea ice in the WRF/PCE-ROMS-CICE, the simulated SAT has new features. These influences also lead to apparent differences at higher levels of the atmosphere, which can be thought as responses to biases in the SST and sea ice extent. There are similar atmospheric responses in feature of distribution to sea ice biases at 700 and 500 hPa, and the strength of responses weakens when the pressure decreases in January. The atmospheric responses in July reach up to 200 hPa. There are surplus sea ice ex- tents in the Greenland Sea, the Barents Sea, the Davis Strait and the Chukchi Sea in winter and in the Beau- fort Sea, the Chukchi Sea, the East Siberian Sea and the Laptev Sea in summer in the ROMS-CICE. These differences in the SIC distribution can all be explained by those in the SST distributions. These features in the simulated SST and SIC from ROMS-CICE also appear in the WRF/PCE-ROMS-CICE. It is shown that the performance of the WRF/PCE-ROMS-CICE is determined to a large extent by its components, the WRF/PCE and the ROMS-CICE.展开更多
The non-hydrostatic mesoscale model MM5V3 is used to simulate the wind andtemperature fields of the atmospheric boundary layer over Beijing area in summer with the meshresolution of 1 km. The simulation results show t...The non-hydrostatic mesoscale model MM5V3 is used to simulate the wind andtemperature fields of the atmospheric boundary layer over Beijing area in summer with the meshresolution of 1 km. The simulation results show that the numerical model can successfully simulatethe urban heat island effect and the wind and temperature fields which are affected by thecomplicated topography and urban heat island. The results show that: (1) the west area (from Haidianto Fengtai Districts) is always the high temperature center of Beijing, where the surfacetemperature is about 6 K higher than the other suburbs; and (2) due to the unique topography thewind of Beijing area during the daytime is southern anabatic wind and at the night is northernkatabatic wind. The results comparing well with the data from surface observation stations validatethe accuracy of the simulation.展开更多
[Objective]Precipitation events caused by Super Typhoon Doksuri in Fujian Province were simulated and evaluated based on the WRF model to provide a reference for typhoon precipitation simulation and forecasting in sou...[Objective]Precipitation events caused by Super Typhoon Doksuri in Fujian Province were simulated and evaluated based on the WRF model to provide a reference for typhoon precipitation simulation and forecasting in southeast coastal areas of China.[Methods]The next-generation mesoscale numerical weather prediction model WRF V4.3(The Weather Research and Forecasting Model)was used to simulate the precipitation caused by Typhoon Doksuri in Fujian Province in 2023.Observations from 86 meteorological stations with hourly rainfall records were used to evaluate the model’s performance.Six evaluation indices were used,including the correlation coefficient(R),root mean square error(RMSE),mean absolute error(MAE),equitable threat score(ETS),probability of detection(POD),and false alarm ratio(FAR).[Results](1)The temporal and spatial evolution of precipitation during Typhoon Doksuri was effectively captured by the WRF model.Precipitation intensity increased gradually from July 27 to 29,2023,with the heaviest rainfall concentrated in the northern and eastern coastal areas of Fujian Province.(2)Significant differences in model performance were observed in terms of R,RMSE,and MAE.The largest errors occurred in Putian City,while smaller errors were found in southwestern Fujian Province.The evaluation result of all six indices showed that the WRF model performed best in simulating daily precipitation compared to hourly,three-hourly,six-hourly,and twelve-hourly precipitation.(3)The R95p index indicated that the WRF model successfully captured the overall spatial distribution of extreme precipitation.However,extreme precipitation intensity was overestimated in certain coastal areas.(4)Despite accurately identifying the coastal regions of Fujian as being most affected,the WRF model failed to accurately simulate the spatial distribution and intensity of precipitation.The simulated precipitation centers showed discrepancies when compared with the observed centers.[Conclusion]Although the WRF model underestimated hourly precipitation,it successfully captured the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of rainfall caused by Typhoon Doksuri in Fujian Province.It reproduced the heavy rainfall centers in central Fujian Province,with daily precipitation peaks reaching up to 350 mm.This highlighted the severity of extreme rainfall caused by Typhoon Doksuri.展开更多
Climate change in the 21st century over China is simulated using the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3). The model is one-way nested within the gl...Climate change in the 21st century over China is simulated using the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3). The model is one-way nested within the global model CCSR/NIES/FRCGC MIROC3.2_hires (Center for Climate System Research/National Institute for Environmental Studies/Frontier Research Center for Global Change/Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate). A 150-year (1951-2100) transient simulation is conducted at 25 km grid spacing, under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) A1B scenario. Simulations of present climate conditions in China by RegCM3 are compared against observations to assess model performance. Results show that RegCM3 reproduces the observed spatial structure of surface air temperature and precipitation well. Changes in mean temperature and precipitation in December-January-February (DJF) and June-July-August (JJA) during the middle and end of the 21st century are analyzed. Significant future warming is simulated by RegCM3. This warming becomes greater with time, and increased warming is simulated at high latitude and high altitude (Tibetan Plateau) areas. In the middle of the 21st century in DJF, a general increase of precipitation is found in most areas, except over the Tibetan Plateau. Precipitation changes in JJA show an increase over northwest China and a decrease over the Tibetan Plateau. There is a mixture of positive and negative changes in eastern China. The change pattern at the end of the century is generally consistent with that in mid century, except in some small areas, and the magnitude of change is usually larger. In addition, the simulation is compared with a previous simulation of the RegCM3 driven by a different global model, to address uncertainties of the projected climate change in China.展开更多
A brief introduction of a global atmospheric circulation model CCM3, which is used to simulate the precipitation in China, the height and the flow fields of the atmosphere, is made and the reliability of simulation is...A brief introduction of a global atmospheric circulation model CCM3, which is used to simulate the precipitation in China, the height and the flow fields of the atmosphere, is made and the reliability of simulation is analyzed. According to the negative correlation between rainfall in the first flood period in South China (FFSC) and sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in a key region in western Pacific warm pool (West Region), two sensitive experiments are designed to investigate the effects of the latter on the former and the possible physical mechanism is discussed. It is found that in cold water (warm water) years, the rainfall in South China (SC) is far more (less) than normal, while the rainfall in the middle and low reaches of the Yangtze River is relatively less (more). The best correlative area of precipitation is located in Guangdong Province. It matches the diagnostic result well. The effect of SSTA on precipitation of FFSC is realized through the abnormality of atmospheric circulation and tested by a P-σnine-layer regional climate model. Moreover, the simulated result of the P-σmodel is basically coincident with that of the CCM3.展开更多
As a crucial component of the Earth system,the ocean significantly impacts the climate due to its vast heat capacity,intricate multi-scale circulation,and considerable carbon storage capability.The ocean general circu...As a crucial component of the Earth system,the ocean significantly impacts the climate due to its vast heat capacity,intricate multi-scale circulation,and considerable carbon storage capability.The ocean general circulation model(OGCM)is a numerical tool designed to solve the governing equations of oceanic fluid and thermal dynamics.It can simulate oceanic circulations and physical states,facilitating marine environmental forecasts and climate projections.展开更多
The four-dimensional empirical orthogonal function （4D-EOF）, which in reality is a simple combination of three-dimensional EOF （3D-EOF） and extended EOF （EEOF）, is put forward in this paper to test the ability o...The four-dimensional empirical orthogonal function （4D-EOF）, which in reality is a simple combination of three-dimensional EOF （3D-EOF） and extended EOF （EEOF）, is put forward in this paper to test the ability of numerical model to simulate climate and its change. The 4D-EOF analysis is able to reveal not only the horizontal characteristic pattern of analyzed variable, and its corresponding annual and inter-annual variations, but also the vertical structural characteristics. The method suggested is then used to analyze the monthly mean 100-, 500-, 700-, and 1000-hPa geopotential height fields （4941 grids and grid spacing 60 km） and their anomaly fields in 1989-1998 simulated by the MM5V3 from the RMIP （Regional Climate Model Inter-comparison Project for East Asia）-II, as well as their counterparts （used as the observed fields） from the NCEP/NCAR re-analysis dataset in the same period. The ability of MM5V3 in simulating East Asian climate and its change is tested by comparing the 4D-EOF analysis results of the simulated and observed datasets. The comparative analyzed results show that the horizontal pattern of the first eigenvector of the observed monthly mean geopotential height fields and its vertical equivalent barotropic feature were well simulated; the simulations of the first two eigenvectors of the observed monthly mean geopotential height anomaly fields were also successful for their horizontal abnormal distributions and significant equivalent barotropic features in the vertical were well reproduced; and furthermore, the observed characteristics, such as the variation with height, the annual and inter-annual variations of the monthly mean geopotential height/anomaly fields were also well reflected in the simulation. Therefore, the 4D-EOF is able to comprehensively test numerical model＇s ability of simulating the climate and its change, and the simulation ability of MM5V3 for the climate and its change in East Asia in the 1990s was satisfactory.展开更多
Regional climate model （RegCM3） was applied to explore the possible effects of land use changes （e.g., grassland degradation in this study） on local and regional climate over the Sanjiangyuan region in the Qinghai...Regional climate model （RegCM3） was applied to explore the possible effects of land use changes （e.g., grassland degradation in this study） on local and regional climate over the Sanjiangyuan region in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Two multiyear （1991-1999） numerical simulation experiments were conducted： one was a control experiment with current land use and the other was a desertification experiment with potential grassland degradation. Preliminary analysis indicated that RegCM3 is appropriate for simulating land- climate interactions, as the patterns of the simulated surface air temperature, the summer precipitation, and the geopotential height fields are consistent with the observed values. The desertification over the Sanjiangyuan region will cause different climate effects in different regions depending on the surrounding environment and climate characteristics. The area with obvious change in surface air temperature inducing by grassland degradation over the Sanjiangyuan region is located in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. A winter surface air temperature drop and the other seasons＇ surface air temperature increase will be observed over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau based on two numerical simulation experiments. Surface air temperature changes in spring are the largest （0.46℃）, and in winter are the smallest （smaller than 0.03℃）, indicating an increasing mean annual surface air temperature over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Surface air temperature changes will be smaller and more complex over the surrounding region, with minor winter changes for the regions just outside the plateau and notable summer changes over the north of the Yangtze River. The reinforced summer heat source in the plateau will lead to an intensification of heat low, causing the West Pacific subtropical high to retreat eastward. This will be followed by a decrease of precipitation in summer. The plateau＇s climate tends to become warm and dry due to the grassland degradation over the Sanjiangyuan region.展开更多
文摘In order to investigate the effects of trace gases on climate variation in the atmosphere, we have devel- oped a primitive equation two-dimensional dynamical climate model with five levels. A series of simula- tion results and discussions are shown in this paper, indicating that the model is useful and can correctly reproduced the main feature of the general atmospheric circulation and its seasonal changes. In addition, we have discussed the role of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau on the formation process of summer monsoon in South Asia and found that the thermal effect of the Qjnghai-Xizang Plateau may not be the main factor controlling the onset and the variation of the summer monsoon in South Asia.
基金Supported by the National Large Scientific and Technological InfrastructureEarth System Numerical Simulation Facility and National Natural Science Foundation of China(41991282).
文摘The Earth system is a complex,nonlinear,and highly coupled system that integrates the atmosphere,land,ocean,cryosphere,lithosphere,and biosphere through various physical,chemical,and biological processes.The Earth System Model(ESM)is an advanced mathematical-physical representation of this intricate system.It extends beyond the traditional climate system models that focus primarily on the physical representation of atmospheric,terrestrial,and oceanic states,to encompass environmental and ecological dynamics.Consequently,ESMs are essential tools not only for weather and climate prediction but also for studying environmental and ecological evolution,human-induced climate impacts,and strategies in climate and ecological management.
文摘In this paper, the CCMOB model is used to study the effect of the deforestation on the climate of China and its neighboring regions. On the assumption that the forest in China would be replaced by the vegetation(such as grassland), the distribution of the albedo changed was calculated. The initial fields used were taken from the FGGE zonal mean data on 16 July, 1979. In the control simulation, the observed albedo data were used to modify the physical parameters of the original model. The control and sensitive experiments were run each for 210 days, in which the external forcing fields were fixed in July. As a result, we find that the East Asian Monsoon, Hadley cell and troposphere easterly jet are weakened for the deforestation in China. The precipitation and cloud amount over China are also decreased. The changes in evaporation and surface temperature are small. The results also show that the deforestation in China exerts a remarkable effect on the climate in the neighboring regions of China.
基金supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2009AA122005)the Public Welfare Meteorology Research Project of China (Grant Nos. 201506023, 201306048)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41275076, 40905046)
文摘Land cover is one of the most basic input elements of land surface and climate models. Currently, the direct and indirect effects of land cover data on climate and climate change are receiving increasing attentions. In this study, a high resolution(30 m) global land cover dataset(Globe Land30) produced by Chinese scientists was, for the first time, used in the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC_CSM) to assess the influences of land cover dataset on land surface and climate simulations. A two-step strategy was designed to use the Globe Land30 data in the model. First, the Globe Land30 data were merged with other satellite remote sensing and climate datasets to regenerate plant functional type(PFT) data fitted for the BCC_CSM. Second, the up-scaling based on an area-weighted approach was used to aggregate the fine-resolution Globe Land30 land cover type and area percentage with the coarser model grid resolutions globally. The Globe Land30-based and the BCC_CSM-based land cover data had generally consistent spatial distribution features, but there were some differences between them. The simulation results of the different land cover type dataset change experiments showed that effects of the new PFT data were larger than those of the new glaciers and water bodies(lakes and wetlands). The maximum value was attained when dataset of all land cover types were changed. The positive bias of precipitation in the mid-high latitude of the northern hemisphere and the negative bias in the Amazon, as well as the negative bias of air temperature in part of the southern hemisphere, were reduced when the Globe Land30-based data were used in the BCC_CSM atmosphere model. The results suggest that the Globe Land30 data are suitable for use in the BCC_CSM component models and can improve the performance of the land and atmosphere simulations.
基金Supported by National Large Scientific and Technological Infrastructure-Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility,Chinese Academy of Sciences Key Scientific Research Projects(KGFZD-145-24-33)National Key Research and Development Program of China(2024YFF0809000)National Natural Science Foundation of China(42275173)。
文摘The Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility,also known as Earth Lab,is a national-class key scientific and technological infrastructure project in China during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period.The project was officially completed in Huairou Comprehensive National Science Center in October 2022.The objectives of the project are:(1)to explore the physical,chemical,and biological processes of the atmosphere,as well as the hydrosphere,cryosphere,lithosphere,and biosphere on Earth’s surface,and their interactions,and probe the effects of those interactions on the overall Earth system and regional environment over China;(2)to merge simulated and observed data to improve the accuracy of climate and environmental predictions,thereby providing scientific support for national efforts in disaster prevention and mitigation,addressing climate change,and improving atmospheric environmental governance;and(3)to promote interdisciplinary integration among various branches of Earth system science and propel China’s all-embracing advancements in this field to an internationally renowned level.This article reviews the international development trends of Earth system numerical simulation facilities,and particularly introduce the composition and functions,the main achievements and future plans of China’s“Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility”.
基金This work was supported by Higher Learning Institution Doctoral Unit Sciences Foundation of the National Educational Committee
文摘According to the nonlinear basic theory that a forced dissipative nonlinear system in a higher dimensional state space can be evolved into an attractor set of the descending dimension, a new method of reducing the degrees of freedom of the general circulation model (GCM) is given. The concrete way of it is: the time-dependent integral series of the model is decomposed through empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs), therefore the small number of the degrees of freedom supporting the attractor set of GCM can be formed, and then a simplified model can be derived when the EOFs are used as basis. The numerical simulation experiment has been done by using a theoretical model, and we are sure that the feasibility and effectiveness of the method can be proved.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.41276190
文摘The Coupling of three model components, WRF/PCE （polar climate extension version of weather research and forecasting model （WRF））, ROMS （regional ocean modeling system）, and CICE （community ice code）, has been implemented, and the regional atmosphere-ocean-sea ice coupled model named WRF/PCE- ROMS-CICE has been validated against ERA-interim reanalysis data sets for 1989. To better understand the reasons that generate model biases, the WRF/PCE-ROMS-CICE results were compared with those of its components, the WRF/PCE and the ROMS-CICE. There are cold biases in surface air temperature （SAT） over the Arctic Ocean, which contribute to the sea ice concentration （SIC） and sea surface temperature （SST） biases in the results of the WRF/PCE-ROMS-CICE. The cold SAT biases also appear in results of the atmo- spheric component with a mild temperature in winter and similar temperature in summer. Compared to results from the WRF/PCE, due to influences of different distributions of the SIC and the SST and inclusion of interactions of air-sea-sea ice in the WRF/PCE-ROMS-CICE, the simulated SAT has new features. These influences also lead to apparent differences at higher levels of the atmosphere, which can be thought as responses to biases in the SST and sea ice extent. There are similar atmospheric responses in feature of distribution to sea ice biases at 700 and 500 hPa, and the strength of responses weakens when the pressure decreases in January. The atmospheric responses in July reach up to 200 hPa. There are surplus sea ice ex- tents in the Greenland Sea, the Barents Sea, the Davis Strait and the Chukchi Sea in winter and in the Beau- fort Sea, the Chukchi Sea, the East Siberian Sea and the Laptev Sea in summer in the ROMS-CICE. These differences in the SIC distribution can all be explained by those in the SST distributions. These features in the simulated SST and SIC from ROMS-CICE also appear in the WRF/PCE-ROMS-CICE. It is shown that the performance of the WRF/PCE-ROMS-CICE is determined to a large extent by its components, the WRF/PCE and the ROMS-CICE.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and Hong Kong under Grant Nos. 40275004,4001161948.
文摘The non-hydrostatic mesoscale model MM5V3 is used to simulate the wind andtemperature fields of the atmospheric boundary layer over Beijing area in summer with the meshresolution of 1 km. The simulation results show that the numerical model can successfully simulatethe urban heat island effect and the wind and temperature fields which are affected by thecomplicated topography and urban heat island. The results show that: (1) the west area (from Haidianto Fengtai Districts) is always the high temperature center of Beijing, where the surfacetemperature is about 6 K higher than the other suburbs; and (2) due to the unique topography thewind of Beijing area during the daytime is southern anabatic wind and at the night is northernkatabatic wind. The results comparing well with the data from surface observation stations validatethe accuracy of the simulation.
文摘[Objective]Precipitation events caused by Super Typhoon Doksuri in Fujian Province were simulated and evaluated based on the WRF model to provide a reference for typhoon precipitation simulation and forecasting in southeast coastal areas of China.[Methods]The next-generation mesoscale numerical weather prediction model WRF V4.3(The Weather Research and Forecasting Model)was used to simulate the precipitation caused by Typhoon Doksuri in Fujian Province in 2023.Observations from 86 meteorological stations with hourly rainfall records were used to evaluate the model’s performance.Six evaluation indices were used,including the correlation coefficient(R),root mean square error(RMSE),mean absolute error(MAE),equitable threat score(ETS),probability of detection(POD),and false alarm ratio(FAR).[Results](1)The temporal and spatial evolution of precipitation during Typhoon Doksuri was effectively captured by the WRF model.Precipitation intensity increased gradually from July 27 to 29,2023,with the heaviest rainfall concentrated in the northern and eastern coastal areas of Fujian Province.(2)Significant differences in model performance were observed in terms of R,RMSE,and MAE.The largest errors occurred in Putian City,while smaller errors were found in southwestern Fujian Province.The evaluation result of all six indices showed that the WRF model performed best in simulating daily precipitation compared to hourly,three-hourly,six-hourly,and twelve-hourly precipitation.(3)The R95p index indicated that the WRF model successfully captured the overall spatial distribution of extreme precipitation.However,extreme precipitation intensity was overestimated in certain coastal areas.(4)Despite accurately identifying the coastal regions of Fujian as being most affected,the WRF model failed to accurately simulate the spatial distribution and intensity of precipitation.The simulated precipitation centers showed discrepancies when compared with the observed centers.[Conclusion]Although the WRF model underestimated hourly precipitation,it successfully captured the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of rainfall caused by Typhoon Doksuri in Fujian Province.It reproduced the heavy rainfall centers in central Fujian Province,with daily precipitation peaks reaching up to 350 mm.This highlighted the severity of extreme rainfall caused by Typhoon Doksuri.
基金the National Basic Research Program of China (2009CB421407)China-UK-Swiss Adapting to Climate Change in China Project (ACCC)the Special Research Program for Public-welfare Forestry (200804001)
文摘Climate change in the 21st century over China is simulated using the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3). The model is one-way nested within the global model CCSR/NIES/FRCGC MIROC3.2_hires (Center for Climate System Research/National Institute for Environmental Studies/Frontier Research Center for Global Change/Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate). A 150-year (1951-2100) transient simulation is conducted at 25 km grid spacing, under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) A1B scenario. Simulations of present climate conditions in China by RegCM3 are compared against observations to assess model performance. Results show that RegCM3 reproduces the observed spatial structure of surface air temperature and precipitation well. Changes in mean temperature and precipitation in December-January-February (DJF) and June-July-August (JJA) during the middle and end of the 21st century are analyzed. Significant future warming is simulated by RegCM3. This warming becomes greater with time, and increased warming is simulated at high latitude and high altitude (Tibetan Plateau) areas. In the middle of the 21st century in DJF, a general increase of precipitation is found in most areas, except over the Tibetan Plateau. Precipitation changes in JJA show an increase over northwest China and a decrease over the Tibetan Plateau. There is a mixture of positive and negative changes in eastern China. The change pattern at the end of the century is generally consistent with that in mid century, except in some small areas, and the magnitude of change is usually larger. In addition, the simulation is compared with a previous simulation of the RegCM3 driven by a different global model, to address uncertainties of the projected climate change in China.
基金sponsored by the NSFC key project (40233037) and the "National Key Developing Programme for Basic Science" project (2004CB418300)
文摘A brief introduction of a global atmospheric circulation model CCM3, which is used to simulate the precipitation in China, the height and the flow fields of the atmosphere, is made and the reliability of simulation is analyzed. According to the negative correlation between rainfall in the first flood period in South China (FFSC) and sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in a key region in western Pacific warm pool (West Region), two sensitive experiments are designed to investigate the effects of the latter on the former and the possible physical mechanism is discussed. It is found that in cold water (warm water) years, the rainfall in South China (SC) is far more (less) than normal, while the rainfall in the middle and low reaches of the Yangtze River is relatively less (more). The best correlative area of precipitation is located in Guangdong Province. It matches the diagnostic result well. The effect of SSTA on precipitation of FFSC is realized through the abnormality of atmospheric circulation and tested by a P-σnine-layer regional climate model. Moreover, the simulated result of the P-σmodel is basically coincident with that of the CCM3.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program for Developing Basic Sciences(2022YFC3104802)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(92358302,L2324203)+2 种基金the Project on Frontier and Interdisciplinary Research Assessment,Academic Divisions of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XK2023DXC001)the Tai Shan Scholar Program(grant no.tstp20231237)Computing resources are financially supported by Laoshan Laboratory(no.LSKJ202300301).
文摘As a crucial component of the Earth system,the ocean significantly impacts the climate due to its vast heat capacity,intricate multi-scale circulation,and considerable carbon storage capability.The ocean general circulation model(OGCM)is a numerical tool designed to solve the governing equations of oceanic fluid and thermal dynamics.It can simulate oceanic circulations and physical states,facilitating marine environmental forecasts and climate projections.
基金the National Key Developing Program for Basic Science Project under Grant No. 2006CB400500China Postdoctoral Science Foundation under Grant No. 20060400492.
文摘The four-dimensional empirical orthogonal function （4D-EOF）, which in reality is a simple combination of three-dimensional EOF （3D-EOF） and extended EOF （EEOF）, is put forward in this paper to test the ability of numerical model to simulate climate and its change. The 4D-EOF analysis is able to reveal not only the horizontal characteristic pattern of analyzed variable, and its corresponding annual and inter-annual variations, but also the vertical structural characteristics. The method suggested is then used to analyze the monthly mean 100-, 500-, 700-, and 1000-hPa geopotential height fields （4941 grids and grid spacing 60 km） and their anomaly fields in 1989-1998 simulated by the MM5V3 from the RMIP （Regional Climate Model Inter-comparison Project for East Asia）-II, as well as their counterparts （used as the observed fields） from the NCEP/NCAR re-analysis dataset in the same period. The ability of MM5V3 in simulating East Asian climate and its change is tested by comparing the 4D-EOF analysis results of the simulated and observed datasets. The comparative analyzed results show that the horizontal pattern of the first eigenvector of the observed monthly mean geopotential height fields and its vertical equivalent barotropic feature were well simulated; the simulations of the first two eigenvectors of the observed monthly mean geopotential height anomaly fields were also successful for their horizontal abnormal distributions and significant equivalent barotropic features in the vertical were well reproduced; and furthermore, the observed characteristics, such as the variation with height, the annual and inter-annual variations of the monthly mean geopotential height/anomaly fields were also well reflected in the simulation. Therefore, the 4D-EOF is able to comprehensively test numerical model＇s ability of simulating the climate and its change, and the simulation ability of MM5V3 for the climate and its change in East Asia in the 1990s was satisfactory.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.40671176the Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality under Grant Nos.08JC1408500 and 072512021
文摘Regional climate model （RegCM3） was applied to explore the possible effects of land use changes （e.g., grassland degradation in this study） on local and regional climate over the Sanjiangyuan region in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Two multiyear （1991-1999） numerical simulation experiments were conducted： one was a control experiment with current land use and the other was a desertification experiment with potential grassland degradation. Preliminary analysis indicated that RegCM3 is appropriate for simulating land- climate interactions, as the patterns of the simulated surface air temperature, the summer precipitation, and the geopotential height fields are consistent with the observed values. The desertification over the Sanjiangyuan region will cause different climate effects in different regions depending on the surrounding environment and climate characteristics. The area with obvious change in surface air temperature inducing by grassland degradation over the Sanjiangyuan region is located in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. A winter surface air temperature drop and the other seasons＇ surface air temperature increase will be observed over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau based on two numerical simulation experiments. Surface air temperature changes in spring are the largest （0.46℃）, and in winter are the smallest （smaller than 0.03℃）, indicating an increasing mean annual surface air temperature over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Surface air temperature changes will be smaller and more complex over the surrounding region, with minor winter changes for the regions just outside the plateau and notable summer changes over the north of the Yangtze River. The reinforced summer heat source in the plateau will lead to an intensification of heat low, causing the West Pacific subtropical high to retreat eastward. This will be followed by a decrease of precipitation in summer. The plateau＇s climate tends to become warm and dry due to the grassland degradation over the Sanjiangyuan region.
