By using the monthly mean grid data of NCAR/NCEP reanalysis at 500 hPa geopotential height from 1958 to 1997,the relationship between the Northeast cold vortex and the western Pacific subtropical high was analyzed.The...By using the monthly mean grid data of NCAR/NCEP reanalysis at 500 hPa geopotential height from 1958 to 1997,the relationship between the Northeast cold vortex and the western Pacific subtropical high was analyzed.The influence of the sea surface temperature(SST) and outgoing longwave radiation(OLR) on the Northeast cold vortex and subtropical high was studied.As was shown in the results,in summer,there was a positive correlation between the Northeast cold vortex and the subtropical high,and an anti-phase relationship existed between the threshold characteristic line of GMS-SST=28 ℃ and the height index of the Northeast cold vortex and the subtropical high.With the gradual northward moving of the threshold characteristic line,the subtropical high was weakening,and the Northeast cold vortex was increasing and strengthening.展开更多
The forecast of precipitation,height,temperature,divergence and water vapor divergence during a rainfall process in Northeast China during June 13-14 in 2012 were analyzed. The results showed that the rainfall process...The forecast of precipitation,height,temperature,divergence and water vapor divergence during a rainfall process in Northeast China during June 13-14 in 2012 were analyzed. The results showed that the rainfall process in Northeast China on June 13 and 14 in 2012 was mainly caused by the typical northeast cold vortex at 500 h Pa,southwest low-level jet at 850 and 700 h Pa,and surface cyclone. The rainfall forecast valid in 60 h was obviously better than those valid in 36 and 84 h,and the forecast error mainly resulted from the prediction error of vertical water vapor transportation.展开更多
A Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV) that maintained from 0200 UTC 3 July to 0500 UTC 3 July 2013 and caused several heavy rainfall events was analyzed in detail to reveal its quadrant-averaged structure and main maint...A Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV) that maintained from 0200 UTC 3 July to 0500 UTC 3 July 2013 and caused several heavy rainfall events was analyzed in detail to reveal its quadrant-averaged structure and main maintaining mechanisms during its mature stage. Results indicated the vortex's intensity, divergence, ascending motions, precipitable water(PW), and thermal structures were all characterized by significant unevenness, and their main pattern changed gradually during the mature stage. Mechanisms accounting for the maintenance of the NCCV were also characterized by remarkable unevenness. Within different quadrants, dominant factors for the vortex's evolution may have differed from each other significantly. The NCCV-averaged vorticity budget revealed that the vertical advection of vorticity, which is closely related to convective activities, was the most favorable factor for maintaining the NCCV, whereas the tilting effect, which is closely related to the vertical shear of the horizontal wind(horizontal vorticity), was the most detrimental factor.展开更多
The Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV)is the most important midlatitude synoptic system for weather and climate anomalies in Northeast China in the warm season.Many previous studies have focused on its synoptic and cli...The Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV)is the most important midlatitude synoptic system for weather and climate anomalies in Northeast China in the warm season.Many previous studies have focused on its synoptic and climatic variability.However,little is known about the variability of the NCCV on subseasonal timescales.In this study,we investigate the subseasonal variability of the NCCV in the warm season(May to August)and its impact based on the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis dataset and observational climate data from 1981 to 2020.Results show that the NCCV frequency exhibits a significant quasi-biweekly oscillation(QBWO,10–25 days).In 32 out of 40 years,there is at least one significant period between 10 and 25 days.Our result provides the first direct evidence for a significant QBWO signal in the NCCV frequency.The QBWO circulation on NCCV days features a cold low-pressure anomaly surrounded by warm high-pressure anomalies from northwest to southeast in a clockwise direction,which is related to an upstream wave train propagating southeastward from the Ural Mountains into Northeast China and a downstream blocking high to the northeast.The NCCV QBWO causes more rainfall,with a quadrature phase shift as rainfall leading the NCCV for approximately three days,and synchronized reduced surface air temperature in Northeast China.展开更多
Based on the daily reanalysis data released by NCEP/NCAR and the daily precipi- tation of 753 Chinese stations from May to August during the period of 1960 to 2012, the statistical characteristics of the cold vortex i...Based on the daily reanalysis data released by NCEP/NCAR and the daily precipi- tation of 753 Chinese stations from May to August during the period of 1960 to 2012, the statistical characteristics of the cold vortex in northeastern China were analyzed. In addition, the strength index, which described the characteristics of the vortex consistently and fre- quently, and the geographical distribution were given by continuous anomalies of circulation. Based on this index, the activity routines of the cold vortex, characteristics of atmospheric circulation, and their effects on precipitation in northeastern China were analyzed. The results show that： the activities of the cold vortex exhibit remarkable features of annual and interde- cadal oscillation, and the vortex high frequency and its characteristics of atmospheric circula- tion are described more accurately by the strength index of the cold vortex, which shows a high correspondence with the vortex precipitation during early summer and midsummer in the northeast. In strong （weak） vortex years, the general circulation in the middle and high lati- tudes of Eurasia is to the advantage （disadvantage） of the formation, development and maintenance of the cold vortex, thus it is easy （difficult） to form the circulation which is bene- ficial to transmit vapor from south to north during the period of July to August. Blocking over the Ural Mountains prevails （does not prevail） in early summer, and blocking over the Sea of Okhotsk prevails （does not prevail） in midsummer. Areas where the subtropical high is too small （large） and moves toward the north too late （early） are better （worse） for the mainte- nance of the cold vortex in northeastern China.展开更多
Severe flooding occurred in Northeast China（NEC） in summer 2013. Compared with the rainfall climatology of the region, the rainy season began earlier in 2013 and two main rainy periods occurred from late June to ear...Severe flooding occurred in Northeast China（NEC） in summer 2013. Compared with the rainfall climatology of the region, the rainy season began earlier in 2013 and two main rainy periods occurred from late June to early July and from mid July to early August, respectively. During the summer season of 2013, the western Pacific subtropical high（WPSH） was located farther westward, which strengthened the southerly winds on its west side in the lower troposphere. Under this circulation pattern, more water vapor was transported to North China and NEC. Another moisture transport pathway to NEC was traced to the cross-equatorial flow over the Bay of Bengal. In mid–high latitudes in summer 2013, the Northeast Cold Vortex（NECV） was much stronger and remained stable over NEC. Thus, the cold air flow from its northwest side frequently met with the warm and wet air from the south to form stronger moisture convergence at lower levels in the troposphere, resulting in increased precipitation over the region. Correlation analysis indicated that the NECV played a more direct role than the WPSH. Synoptic analyses of the two heaviest flood cases on 2 and 16 July confirmed this conclusion. The four wettest summers in NEC before 2000 were also analyzed and the results were consistent with the conclusion that both the WPSH and the NECV led to the intense rainfall in NEC, but the NECV had a more direct role.展开更多
The Northeast Cold Vortex (NECV) is an important weather system in the middle and high latitudes in East Asia. Its time scale is synoptic, yet the frequent activities of NECV have significant "climate effect"...The Northeast Cold Vortex (NECV) is an important weather system in the middle and high latitudes in East Asia. Its time scale is synoptic, yet the frequent activities of NECV have significant "climate effect" which influences not only the monthly temperature in the lower troposphere in Northeast China but also the Meiyu rainfall in East Asia. On the basis of ERA-40 reanalysis data provided by ECMWF, the "climate effect" of NECV and its relationship with Meiyu in East Asia are studied. It is shown that there is significant correlation between NECV during the Meiyu period and rainfall amount: strong NECV corresponds to more Meiyu rainfall and weak NECV corresponds to less rainfall. In strong NECV years, the dry and cold air from the north is led to the south by NECV, converges with the lower-level warm and wet southwesterly on the north verge of Meiyu region, thus forms an unstable stratification of "upper dryness and lower wetness" . Triggered by ascending motion, the Meiyu rainfall amount is more than usual. It is on the contrary in weak NECV years. The anomalous SST in north Pacific in the previ-ous year may be a factor that results in the anomalous NECV at Meiyu period. The land-sea thermal contrast in summer facilitates NECV, while that in winter inhibits NECV. All of the above provide a meaningful result for the short-term climate prediction of NECV and Meiyu.展开更多
The classification of the Northeast China Cold Vortex(NCCV)activity paths is an important way to analyze its characteristics in detail.Based on the daily precipitation data of the northeastern China(NEC)region,and the...The classification of the Northeast China Cold Vortex(NCCV)activity paths is an important way to analyze its characteristics in detail.Based on the daily precipitation data of the northeastern China(NEC)region,and the atmospheric circulation field and temperature field data of ERA-Interim for every six hours,the NCCV processes during the early summer(June)seasons from 1979 to 2018 were objectively identified.Then,the NCCV processes were classified using a machine learning method(k-means)according to the characteristic parameters of the activity path information.The rationality of the classification results was verified from two aspects,as follows:(1)the atmospheric circulation configuration of the NCCV on various paths;and(2)its influences on the climate conditions in the NEC.The obtained results showed that the activity paths of the NCCV could be divided into four types according to such characteristics as the generation origin,movement direction,and movement velocity of the NCCV.These included the generation-eastward movement type in the east of the Mongolia Plateau(eastward movement type or type A);generation-southeast longdistance movement type in the upstream of the Lena River(southeast long-distance movement type or type B);generationeastward less-movement type near Lake Baikal(eastward less-movement type or type C);and the generation-southward less-movement type in eastern Siberia(southward less-movement type or type D).There were obvious differences observed in the atmospheric circulation configuration and the climate impact of the NCCV on the four above-mentioned types of paths,which indicated that the classification results were reasonable.展开更多
The Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV)during late summer(from July to August)is identified and classified into three types in terms of its movement path using machine learning.The relationships of the three types of NC...The Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV)during late summer(from July to August)is identified and classified into three types in terms of its movement path using machine learning.The relationships of the three types of NCCV intensity with atmospheric circulations in late summer,the sea surface temperature(SST),and Arctic sea ice concentration(SIC)in the preceding months,are analyzed.The sensitivity tests by the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3(CAM5.3)are used to verify the statistical results.The results show that the coordination pattern of East Asia-Pacific(EAP)and Lake Baikal high pressure forced by SST anomalies in the North Indian Ocean dipole mode(NIOD)during the preceding April and SIC anomalies in the Nansen Basin during the preceding June results in an intensity anomaly for the first type of NCCV.While the pattern of high pressure over the Urals and Okhotsk Sea and low pressure over Lake Baikal during late summer-which is forced by SST anomalies in the South Indian Ocean dipole mode(SIOD)in the preceding June and SIC anomalies in the Barents Sea in the preceding April-causes the intensity anomaly of the second type.The third type is atypical and is not analyzed in detail.Sensitivity tests,jointly forced by the SST and SIC in the preceding period,can well reproduce the observations.In contrast,the results forced separately by the SST and SIC are poor,indicating that the NCCV during late summer is likely influenced by the coordinated effects of both SST and SIC in the preceding months.展开更多
Arctic changes influence not only temperature and precipitation in the midlatitudes but also contribute to severe convection.This study investigates an extreme gale event that occurred on 30 April 2021 in East China a...Arctic changes influence not only temperature and precipitation in the midlatitudes but also contribute to severe convection.This study investigates an extreme gale event that occurred on 30 April 2021 in East China and was forced by an Arctic potential vorticity(PV)anomaly intrusion.Temperature advection steered by storms contributed to the equatorward propagation of Arctic high PV,forming the Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV).At the upper levels,a PV southward intrusion guided the combination of the polar jet and the subtropical jet,providing strong vertical wind shear and downward momentum transportation to the event.The PV anomaly cooled the upper troposphere and the northern part of East China,whereas the lower levels over southern East China were dominated by local warm air,thus establishing strong instability and baroclinicity.In addition,the entrainment of Arctic dry air strengthened the surface pressure gradient by evaporation cooling.Capturing the above mechanism has the potential to improve convective weather forecasts under climate change.This study suggests that the more frequent NCCV-induced gale events in recent years are partly due to high-latitude waviness and storm activities,and this hypothesis needs to be investigated using more cases.展开更多
Based on the final analysis data with horizontal resolution of 1°× 1°(four times a day) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP), a typical Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV) during t...Based on the final analysis data with horizontal resolution of 1°× 1°(four times a day) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP), a typical Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV) during the spring of 2010 was examined with the quasi-Lagrange- form eddy flux circulation(EFC) budget equation. Results indicated that the mechanisms that account for the development, maintenance, and attenuation of the cyclone varied with levels and stages. Displacement of the cyclone and transports by background environmental circulations dominated the variation of the cyclone in the middle and upper levels, whereas displacement and divergence associated with the cyclone dominated the evolution of the NCCV in the middle and lower levels. Moreover, interactions between the NCCV and other subsynoptic weather systems were important for the development of the cyclone, and the pattern of background environmental circulations was also important for the evolution of the NCCV, since the cyclone enhanced(weakened) as it moved from areas of low(high) vorticity to high(low) ones.展开更多
Considering the differences between the Northeast China Cold Vortex （CV） and the Mid-Summer （MS） rainy period and their corresponding atmospheric circulations are comprehensively analyzed, and the objective identi...Considering the differences between the Northeast China Cold Vortex （CV） and the Mid-Summer （MS） rainy period and their corresponding atmospheric circulations are comprehensively analyzed, and the objective identification methods of defining the annual beginning and ending dates of Northeast China CV and MS rainy periods are developed respectively. The annual beginning date of the CV （MS） rainy period is as follows. In a period from April to August, if daily regional mean precipitation ryi is larger than yearly regional mean precipitation R （or 2R） on a certain day, the station precipitation rs is larger than the station yearly mean precipitation （r/ （or 2（r）） in at least 50% of stations in Northeast China, and this condition is satisfied in the following 2 （7） days, then this date is defined as the beginning date of the CV （MS） rainy period. While the definition of the ending date of the MS rainy period shows the opposite process to its beginning date. With this objective identification method, the multi-year average （1981-2010） beginning date of the CV rainy period is May 3, the beginning date of the MS rainy period is June 27, the ending day of the CV rainy period is defined as the day before the beginning date of the MS rainy period, and the ending date of the MS rainy period is August 29. Meanwhile, corresponding anomaly analysis at a 500-hPa geopotential height, 850-hPa wind, Omega and relative humidity fields all show that the definitions of the average beginning and ending dates of the CV and MS rainy periods have a certain circulation meaning. Furthermore, the daily evolution of the CV index, meridional and zonal wind index, etc. all show that these objectively defined beginning and ending dates of the CV and MS rainy periods have climate significance.展开更多
The Northeast China Cold Vortex(NCCV)is a common cut-off low-pressure system in Northeast China,frequently causing localized heavy rainfall,strong winds,and thunderstorms during the early summer.In this study,the clea...The Northeast China Cold Vortex(NCCV)is a common cut-off low-pressure system in Northeast China,frequently causing localized heavy rainfall,strong winds,and thunderstorms during the early summer.In this study,the clear-sky radiance of 48 longwave channels from the FY-4B Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder(GIIRS)is assimilated into the China Meteorological Administration mesoscale model(CMA-MESO)to evaluate its impact on NCCV development and its effects on rainfall forecasting.The results show that after assimilating the GIIRS radiance data,the warm center at 200 hPa and the cold center at 850 hPa of the NCCV are strengthened,and the dry intrusion at 850 hPa becomes more pronounced.This leads to a stronger NCCV intensity in the following 24 hours and brings the precipitation intensity and area closer to the observation,resulting in significant improvements compared to the experiments that do not assimilate GIIRS radiance data.Furthermore,it is found that the enhancement of the precipitation forecast is associated with the strengthening of cold air in the middle and lower troposphere,which intensifies the uplift of the warm,moist airflow.These results highlight the potential value of GIIRS data assimilation in enhancing early warnings and forecasts of extreme weather events influenced by the NCCV.展开更多
The NCEP data were applied to analyze causes of 'late spring coldness' occurring twice in Dalian in late April and mid May of 2008.The results showed that the 500 hPa Baikal ridge of high pressure maintained o...The NCEP data were applied to analyze causes of 'late spring coldness' occurring twice in Dalian in late April and mid May of 2008.The results showed that the 500 hPa Baikal ridge of high pressure maintained or strengthened in a stable manner.The delivery of accumulated cold air toward southeast was along the northwest airstream before the ridge.Therefore,the ridge of high pressure over Lake Baikal provided access for the cold air southward so that the cold air could continue to decline,resulting in the appearance of low temperature in late April and formation of 'late spring coldness'.The Northeast cold vortex(NECV) occurred frequently in mid May.There was a high possibility for low temperature and pluvial damages over Dalian.Thus the phenomenon of 'late spring coldness' appeared again.展开更多
The Northeast China Cold Vortex(NECV)is a significant atmospheric circulation system that triggers severe weather in mid-to-high latitudes of Asia.Fengyun-4B(FY-4B)satellite provides 15-min atmospheric motion vector(A...The Northeast China Cold Vortex(NECV)is a significant atmospheric circulation system that triggers severe weather in mid-to-high latitudes of Asia.Fengyun-4B(FY-4B)satellite provides 15-min atmospheric motion vector(AMV)and 2-h three-dimensional temperature profiles,enabling unprecedented high spatiotemporal resolution for real-time vortex tracking.This study evaluates the effectiveness of FY-4B AMV and temperature products in tracking 24 NECVs in 2023,among which two strong NECVs in winter and summer 2023 were carefully examined.We first assessed the accuracy of wind speed and direction of the AMVs in the NECV monitoring region by comparing them with radiosonde observations,revealing reasonable correlation coefficients(CC),mean absolute errors(MAE),and root mean square errors(RMSE).NECVs and their centers were identified by using AMV data from four channels(CH09,CH10,CH11,and CH13)within the 200–500-hPa layer,employing the“8-point method”that sets specific criteria for the wind directions at 8 surrounding points to ensure a consistent cyclonic pattern around the central point.The NECV centers identified from AMVs are found to be close(mean distance of 181.9 km)to those determined by ERA5 geopotential height.The retrieved FY-4B temperature data are also evaluated against radiosonde observations,showing a high CC of 0.996 and RMSE of 1.87 K,indicating reliable temperature retrievals for NECV tracking.Based on the FY-4B/Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder(GIIRS)500-hPa temperature,the NECV cold centers are obtained and cross-validated against ERA5 reanalysis temperature at 500 hPa,revealing a mean distance deviation of 140.6 km.The real-time operational NECV monitoring based on the FY-4B AMV and temperature products on high spatiotemporal resolutions in this study provides valuable information for disaster prevention and mitigation.展开更多
文摘By using the monthly mean grid data of NCAR/NCEP reanalysis at 500 hPa geopotential height from 1958 to 1997,the relationship between the Northeast cold vortex and the western Pacific subtropical high was analyzed.The influence of the sea surface temperature(SST) and outgoing longwave radiation(OLR) on the Northeast cold vortex and subtropical high was studied.As was shown in the results,in summer,there was a positive correlation between the Northeast cold vortex and the subtropical high,and an anti-phase relationship existed between the threshold characteristic line of GMS-SST=28 ℃ and the height index of the Northeast cold vortex and the subtropical high.With the gradual northward moving of the threshold characteristic line,the subtropical high was weakening,and the Northeast cold vortex was increasing and strengthening.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41375049)
文摘The forecast of precipitation,height,temperature,divergence and water vapor divergence during a rainfall process in Northeast China during June 13-14 in 2012 were analyzed. The results showed that the rainfall process in Northeast China on June 13 and 14 in 2012 was mainly caused by the typical northeast cold vortex at 500 h Pa,southwest low-level jet at 850 and 700 h Pa,and surface cyclone. The rainfall forecast valid in 60 h was obviously better than those valid in 36 and 84 h,and the forecast error mainly resulted from the prediction error of vertical water vapor transportation.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41205027, 41375053, and 41375058)
文摘A Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV) that maintained from 0200 UTC 3 July to 0500 UTC 3 July 2013 and caused several heavy rainfall events was analyzed in detail to reveal its quadrant-averaged structure and main maintaining mechanisms during its mature stage. Results indicated the vortex's intensity, divergence, ascending motions, precipitable water(PW), and thermal structures were all characterized by significant unevenness, and their main pattern changed gradually during the mature stage. Mechanisms accounting for the maintenance of the NCCV were also characterized by remarkable unevenness. Within different quadrants, dominant factors for the vortex's evolution may have differed from each other significantly. The NCCV-averaged vorticity budget revealed that the vertical advection of vorticity, which is closely related to convective activities, was the most favorable factor for maintaining the NCCV, whereas the tilting effect, which is closely related to the vertical shear of the horizontal wind(horizontal vorticity), was the most detrimental factor.
基金funded by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant Nos.2023YFC3007700 and 2023YFC3007701)。
文摘The Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV)is the most important midlatitude synoptic system for weather and climate anomalies in Northeast China in the warm season.Many previous studies have focused on its synoptic and climatic variability.However,little is known about the variability of the NCCV on subseasonal timescales.In this study,we investigate the subseasonal variability of the NCCV in the warm season(May to August)and its impact based on the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis dataset and observational climate data from 1981 to 2020.Results show that the NCCV frequency exhibits a significant quasi-biweekly oscillation(QBWO,10–25 days).In 32 out of 40 years,there is at least one significant period between 10 and 25 days.Our result provides the first direct evidence for a significant QBWO signal in the NCCV frequency.The QBWO circulation on NCCV days features a cold low-pressure anomaly surrounded by warm high-pressure anomalies from northwest to southeast in a clockwise direction,which is related to an upstream wave train propagating southeastward from the Ural Mountains into Northeast China and a downstream blocking high to the northeast.The NCCV QBWO causes more rainfall,with a quadrature phase shift as rainfall leading the NCCV for approximately three days,and synchronized reduced surface air temperature in Northeast China.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41375078, No.41405094, No.41175083, No.41275096 Science and technology development plan in Jilin Province of China, No.20150204023 SF
文摘Based on the daily reanalysis data released by NCEP/NCAR and the daily precipi- tation of 753 Chinese stations from May to August during the period of 1960 to 2012, the statistical characteristics of the cold vortex in northeastern China were analyzed. In addition, the strength index, which described the characteristics of the vortex consistently and fre- quently, and the geographical distribution were given by continuous anomalies of circulation. Based on this index, the activity routines of the cold vortex, characteristics of atmospheric circulation, and their effects on precipitation in northeastern China were analyzed. The results show that： the activities of the cold vortex exhibit remarkable features of annual and interde- cadal oscillation, and the vortex high frequency and its characteristics of atmospheric circula- tion are described more accurately by the strength index of the cold vortex, which shows a high correspondence with the vortex precipitation during early summer and midsummer in the northeast. In strong （weak） vortex years, the general circulation in the middle and high lati- tudes of Eurasia is to the advantage （disadvantage） of the formation, development and maintenance of the cold vortex, thus it is easy （difficult） to form the circulation which is bene- ficial to transmit vapor from south to north during the period of July to August. Blocking over the Ural Mountains prevails （does not prevail） in early summer, and blocking over the Sea of Okhotsk prevails （does not prevail） in midsummer. Areas where the subtropical high is too small （large） and moves toward the north too late （early） are better （worse） for the mainte- nance of the cold vortex in northeastern China.
基金Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(2013CB430203)Technology Innovation Project of the Inner Mongolia Meteorological Bureau(nmqxkjcx201606)Climate and Climate Change Innovation Team Project of the Inner Mongolia Meteorological Bureau
文摘Severe flooding occurred in Northeast China（NEC） in summer 2013. Compared with the rainfall climatology of the region, the rainy season began earlier in 2013 and two main rainy periods occurred from late June to early July and from mid July to early August, respectively. During the summer season of 2013, the western Pacific subtropical high（WPSH） was located farther westward, which strengthened the southerly winds on its west side in the lower troposphere. Under this circulation pattern, more water vapor was transported to North China and NEC. Another moisture transport pathway to NEC was traced to the cross-equatorial flow over the Bay of Bengal. In mid–high latitudes in summer 2013, the Northeast Cold Vortex（NECV） was much stronger and remained stable over NEC. Thus, the cold air flow from its northwest side frequently met with the warm and wet air from the south to form stronger moisture convergence at lower levels in the troposphere, resulting in increased precipitation over the region. Correlation analysis indicated that the NECV played a more direct role than the WPSH. Synoptic analyses of the two heaviest flood cases on 2 and 16 July confirmed this conclusion. The four wettest summers in NEC before 2000 were also analyzed and the results were consistent with the conclusion that both the WPSH and the NECV led to the intense rainfall in NEC, but the NECV had a more direct role.
基金Supported jointly by the National Basic Research Program "973" (Grant No.2004CB418303)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40605022)"Subtropical Monsoon and Its Forecast Technology" Research Program by Shanghai Meteorological Administration, and Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Mete-orological Disaster (Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology) (Grant No. KLME060201).
文摘The Northeast Cold Vortex (NECV) is an important weather system in the middle and high latitudes in East Asia. Its time scale is synoptic, yet the frequent activities of NECV have significant "climate effect" which influences not only the monthly temperature in the lower troposphere in Northeast China but also the Meiyu rainfall in East Asia. On the basis of ERA-40 reanalysis data provided by ECMWF, the "climate effect" of NECV and its relationship with Meiyu in East Asia are studied. It is shown that there is significant correlation between NECV during the Meiyu period and rainfall amount: strong NECV corresponds to more Meiyu rainfall and weak NECV corresponds to less rainfall. In strong NECV years, the dry and cold air from the north is led to the south by NECV, converges with the lower-level warm and wet southwesterly on the north verge of Meiyu region, thus forms an unstable stratification of "upper dryness and lower wetness" . Triggered by ascending motion, the Meiyu rainfall amount is more than usual. It is on the contrary in weak NECV years. The anomalous SST in north Pacific in the previ-ous year may be a factor that results in the anomalous NECV at Meiyu period. The land-sea thermal contrast in summer facilitates NECV, while that in winter inhibits NECV. All of the above provide a meaningful result for the short-term climate prediction of NECV and Meiyu.
基金This research was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42005037)the Liaoning Provincial Natural Science Foundation Project(PhD Start-up Research Fund 2019-BS-214),the Special Scientific Research Project for the Forecaster(Grant No.CMAYBY2018-018)+2 种基金a Key Technical Project of Liaoning Meteorological Bureau(Grant No.LNGJ201903)the National Key Research and Development Project(Grant No.2018YFC1505601)the Open Foundation Project of the Institute of Atmospheric Environment,China Meteorological Administration(Grant Nos.2020SYIAE08 and 2020SYIAEZD5).
文摘The classification of the Northeast China Cold Vortex(NCCV)activity paths is an important way to analyze its characteristics in detail.Based on the daily precipitation data of the northeastern China(NEC)region,and the atmospheric circulation field and temperature field data of ERA-Interim for every six hours,the NCCV processes during the early summer(June)seasons from 1979 to 2018 were objectively identified.Then,the NCCV processes were classified using a machine learning method(k-means)according to the characteristic parameters of the activity path information.The rationality of the classification results was verified from two aspects,as follows:(1)the atmospheric circulation configuration of the NCCV on various paths;and(2)its influences on the climate conditions in the NEC.The obtained results showed that the activity paths of the NCCV could be divided into four types according to such characteristics as the generation origin,movement direction,and movement velocity of the NCCV.These included the generation-eastward movement type in the east of the Mongolia Plateau(eastward movement type or type A);generation-southeast longdistance movement type in the upstream of the Lena River(southeast long-distance movement type or type B);generationeastward less-movement type near Lake Baikal(eastward less-movement type or type C);and the generation-southward less-movement type in eastern Siberia(southward less-movement type or type D).There were obvious differences observed in the atmospheric circulation configuration and the climate impact of the NCCV on the four above-mentioned types of paths,which indicated that the classification results were reasonable.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42005037)Special Project of Innovative Development, CMA (CXFZ2021J022, CXFZ2022J008, and CXFZ2021J028)+1 种基金Liaoning Provincial Natural Science Foundation Project (Ph.D. Start-up Research Fund 2019-BS214)Research Project of the Institute of Atmospheric Environment, CMA (2021SYIAEKFMS08, 2020SYIAE08 and 2021SYIAEKFMS09)
文摘The Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV)during late summer(from July to August)is identified and classified into three types in terms of its movement path using machine learning.The relationships of the three types of NCCV intensity with atmospheric circulations in late summer,the sea surface temperature(SST),and Arctic sea ice concentration(SIC)in the preceding months,are analyzed.The sensitivity tests by the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3(CAM5.3)are used to verify the statistical results.The results show that the coordination pattern of East Asia-Pacific(EAP)and Lake Baikal high pressure forced by SST anomalies in the North Indian Ocean dipole mode(NIOD)during the preceding April and SIC anomalies in the Nansen Basin during the preceding June results in an intensity anomaly for the first type of NCCV.While the pattern of high pressure over the Urals and Okhotsk Sea and low pressure over Lake Baikal during late summer-which is forced by SST anomalies in the South Indian Ocean dipole mode(SIOD)in the preceding June and SIC anomalies in the Barents Sea in the preceding April-causes the intensity anomaly of the second type.The third type is atypical and is not analyzed in detail.Sensitivity tests,jointly forced by the SST and SIC in the preceding period,can well reproduce the observations.In contrast,the results forced separately by the SST and SIC are poor,indicating that the NCCV during late summer is likely influenced by the coordinated effects of both SST and SIC in the preceding months.
基金supported by the China National Science Foundation (Grant No. 41705029)Anhui Joint Foundation (Grant No.2208085UQ11)+2 种基金China Meteorological Administration special grants on innovation and development (Grant No. CXFZ2023J017)China Meteorological Administration special grants on decision-making meteorological service (Grant No. JCZX2022005)support from the innovation team at Anhui Meteorological Bureau
文摘Arctic changes influence not only temperature and precipitation in the midlatitudes but also contribute to severe convection.This study investigates an extreme gale event that occurred on 30 April 2021 in East China and was forced by an Arctic potential vorticity(PV)anomaly intrusion.Temperature advection steered by storms contributed to the equatorward propagation of Arctic high PV,forming the Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV).At the upper levels,a PV southward intrusion guided the combination of the polar jet and the subtropical jet,providing strong vertical wind shear and downward momentum transportation to the event.The PV anomaly cooled the upper troposphere and the northern part of East China,whereas the lower levels over southern East China were dominated by local warm air,thus establishing strong instability and baroclinicity.In addition,the entrainment of Arctic dry air strengthened the surface pressure gradient by evaporation cooling.Capturing the above mechanism has the potential to improve convective weather forecasts under climate change.This study suggests that the more frequent NCCV-induced gale events in recent years are partly due to high-latitude waviness and storm activities,and this hypothesis needs to be investigated using more cases.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41205027)the National Key Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB 417201)
文摘Based on the final analysis data with horizontal resolution of 1°× 1°(four times a day) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP), a typical Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV) during the spring of 2010 was examined with the quasi-Lagrange- form eddy flux circulation(EFC) budget equation. Results indicated that the mechanisms that account for the development, maintenance, and attenuation of the cyclone varied with levels and stages. Displacement of the cyclone and transports by background environmental circulations dominated the variation of the cyclone in the middle and upper levels, whereas displacement and divergence associated with the cyclone dominated the evolution of the NCCV in the middle and lower levels. Moreover, interactions between the NCCV and other subsynoptic weather systems were important for the development of the cyclone, and the pattern of background environmental circulations was also important for the evolution of the NCCV, since the cyclone enhanced(weakened) as it moved from areas of low(high) vorticity to high(low) ones.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41205040 and 41375078)the State Key Development Program for Basic Research,China(Grant No.2012CB955203)the Special Scientific Research Project for Public Interest(Grant No.GYHY201306021)
文摘Considering the differences between the Northeast China Cold Vortex （CV） and the Mid-Summer （MS） rainy period and their corresponding atmospheric circulations are comprehensively analyzed, and the objective identification methods of defining the annual beginning and ending dates of Northeast China CV and MS rainy periods are developed respectively. The annual beginning date of the CV （MS） rainy period is as follows. In a period from April to August, if daily regional mean precipitation ryi is larger than yearly regional mean precipitation R （or 2R） on a certain day, the station precipitation rs is larger than the station yearly mean precipitation （r/ （or 2（r）） in at least 50% of stations in Northeast China, and this condition is satisfied in the following 2 （7） days, then this date is defined as the beginning date of the CV （MS） rainy period. While the definition of the ending date of the MS rainy period shows the opposite process to its beginning date. With this objective identification method, the multi-year average （1981-2010） beginning date of the CV rainy period is May 3, the beginning date of the MS rainy period is June 27, the ending day of the CV rainy period is defined as the day before the beginning date of the MS rainy period, and the ending date of the MS rainy period is August 29. Meanwhile, corresponding anomaly analysis at a 500-hPa geopotential height, 850-hPa wind, Omega and relative humidity fields all show that the definitions of the average beginning and ending dates of the CV and MS rainy periods have a certain circulation meaning. Furthermore, the daily evolution of the CV index, meridional and zonal wind index, etc. all show that these objectively defined beginning and ending dates of the CV and MS rainy periods have climate significance.
基金sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42275171)the Basic Research Operating Expenses of the Institute of Meteorological Sciences,CMA(Grant No.2023Z019)+3 种基金the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2022YFF0801304)the China Meteorological Administration Youth Innovation Team Fund(Grant No.CMA2024QN05)a Liaoning Provincial Meteorological Bureau Project(Grant No.D202201)Shenyang Institute of Atmospheric Environment Projects(Grant Nos.2022SYIAEJY13 and 2018SYIAEZD5).
文摘The Northeast China Cold Vortex(NCCV)is a common cut-off low-pressure system in Northeast China,frequently causing localized heavy rainfall,strong winds,and thunderstorms during the early summer.In this study,the clear-sky radiance of 48 longwave channels from the FY-4B Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder(GIIRS)is assimilated into the China Meteorological Administration mesoscale model(CMA-MESO)to evaluate its impact on NCCV development and its effects on rainfall forecasting.The results show that after assimilating the GIIRS radiance data,the warm center at 200 hPa and the cold center at 850 hPa of the NCCV are strengthened,and the dry intrusion at 850 hPa becomes more pronounced.This leads to a stronger NCCV intensity in the following 24 hours and brings the precipitation intensity and area closer to the observation,resulting in significant improvements compared to the experiments that do not assimilate GIIRS radiance data.Furthermore,it is found that the enhancement of the precipitation forecast is associated with the strengthening of cold air in the middle and lower troposphere,which intensifies the uplift of the warm,moist airflow.These results highlight the potential value of GIIRS data assimilation in enhancing early warnings and forecasts of extreme weather events influenced by the NCCV.
文摘The NCEP data were applied to analyze causes of 'late spring coldness' occurring twice in Dalian in late April and mid May of 2008.The results showed that the 500 hPa Baikal ridge of high pressure maintained or strengthened in a stable manner.The delivery of accumulated cold air toward southeast was along the northwest airstream before the ridge.Therefore,the ridge of high pressure over Lake Baikal provided access for the cold air southward so that the cold air could continue to decline,resulting in the appearance of low temperature in late April and formation of 'late spring coldness'.The Northeast cold vortex(NECV) occurred frequently in mid May.There was a high possibility for low temperature and pluvial damages over Dalian.Thus the phenomenon of 'late spring coldness' appeared again.
基金Supported by the China Meteorological Administration Northeast China Cold Vortex Research Key Laboratory(2023SYIAEKFZD04)Research Project of China Meteorological Administration Training Centre(2024CMATCQN03 and2024CMATCPY01)。
文摘The Northeast China Cold Vortex(NECV)is a significant atmospheric circulation system that triggers severe weather in mid-to-high latitudes of Asia.Fengyun-4B(FY-4B)satellite provides 15-min atmospheric motion vector(AMV)and 2-h three-dimensional temperature profiles,enabling unprecedented high spatiotemporal resolution for real-time vortex tracking.This study evaluates the effectiveness of FY-4B AMV and temperature products in tracking 24 NECVs in 2023,among which two strong NECVs in winter and summer 2023 were carefully examined.We first assessed the accuracy of wind speed and direction of the AMVs in the NECV monitoring region by comparing them with radiosonde observations,revealing reasonable correlation coefficients(CC),mean absolute errors(MAE),and root mean square errors(RMSE).NECVs and their centers were identified by using AMV data from four channels(CH09,CH10,CH11,and CH13)within the 200–500-hPa layer,employing the“8-point method”that sets specific criteria for the wind directions at 8 surrounding points to ensure a consistent cyclonic pattern around the central point.The NECV centers identified from AMVs are found to be close(mean distance of 181.9 km)to those determined by ERA5 geopotential height.The retrieved FY-4B temperature data are also evaluated against radiosonde observations,showing a high CC of 0.996 and RMSE of 1.87 K,indicating reliable temperature retrievals for NECV tracking.Based on the FY-4B/Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder(GIIRS)500-hPa temperature,the NECV cold centers are obtained and cross-validated against ERA5 reanalysis temperature at 500 hPa,revealing a mean distance deviation of 140.6 km.The real-time operational NECV monitoring based on the FY-4B AMV and temperature products on high spatiotemporal resolutions in this study provides valuable information for disaster prevention and mitigation.
