With the expansion of vaccination programs,the policy of terminating nonpharmaceutical interventions for preventing the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic should become more flexible.The current study investigated the clinical and e...With the expansion of vaccination programs,the policy of terminating nonpharmaceutical interventions for preventing the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic should become more flexible.The current study investigated the clinical and economic outcomes of intervention policies combining nonpharmaceutical interventions and vaccination programs for dealing with the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.An agent-based transmission model was adopted that describes how a SARS-CoV-2 virus spreads in the populations of China.The model inputs were derived from the literature and expert opinion.The following intervention policies were simulated:no intervention,strict nonpharmaceutical interventions,and nonpharmaceutical interventions for workplace,community,school and home gradually terminated by combining vaccination programs for specified age groups(vaccination age in years:20-60,20-70,20-80,≥20,≥10 and whole population).Cumulative infections and deaths in one calendar year,costs and quality-adjusted life years(QALYs)were measured.When the vaccination program was taken up in at least the≥20 years age group in all populations,nonpharmaceutical interventions for workplace and community settings could be gradually terminated because the cumulative number of infections was<100 per 100,000 persons.Further ending nonpharmaceutical interventions in school and home settings could not meet the target even when the vaccination program had been taken up in all populations.When cumulative deaths were used as the endpoint,nonpharmaceutical interventions in workplace,community and school settings could be gradually terminated.Vaccine efficacy and coverage have substantial impacts.Terminating nonpharmaceutical interventions in workplace settings could produce the lowest cost when vaccination programs are taken up at least in the≥10 years age group;this method dominates most intervention strategies due to its lower costs and higher QALYs.According to our findings,nonpharmaceutical interventions might be gradually terminated in Chinese settings.展开更多
Before vaccine development during the COVID-19 pandemic,Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions(NPIs)were the only solutions to mitigate COVID-19 infections.Governments continued to use them even after starting vaccine admin...Before vaccine development during the COVID-19 pandemic,Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions(NPIs)were the only solutions to mitigate COVID-19 infections.Governments continued to use them even after starting vaccine administration.In this research,we review different big data analytics models that assess and optimize the effectiveness of NPIs.These models are categorized into three big data analytics groups:descriptive,which measures the infection rate changes caused by NPIs;predictive,which predicts the future of the pandemic by implementing several NPIs;and data-driven prescriptive,which suggests optimal control policies.We further analyze each method’s basic assumptions,limitations,and applicability during different pandemic phases and under different scenarios.This review of COVID-19 NPI evaluation methods will be beneficial for decision-makers to know which model to select for policy-making in possible future pandemics,which are more likely recently due to globalization.Finally,we suggest some future research directions.展开更多
Background:A local coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)case confirmed on June 11,2020 triggered an outbreak in Beijing,China after 56 consecutive days without a newly confirmed case.Non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPIs...Background:A local coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)case confirmed on June 11,2020 triggered an outbreak in Beijing,China after 56 consecutive days without a newly confirmed case.Non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPIs)were used to contain the source in Xinfadi(XFD)market.To rapidly control the outbreak,both traditional and newly introduced NPIs in eluding large-scale management of high-risk populations and expanded severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2)PCR-based screening in the general population were conducted in Beijing.We aimed to assess the effectiveness of the response to the COVID-19 outbreak in Beijing's XFD market and inform future response efforts of resurgence across regions.展开更多
The COVID-19 pandemic severely impacted long-term care facilities resulting in the death of approximately 8%of residents nationwide as of March 2021.As COVID-19 case rates declined and state and county restrictions we...The COVID-19 pandemic severely impacted long-term care facilities resulting in the death of approximately 8%of residents nationwide as of March 2021.As COVID-19 case rates declined and state and county restrictions were lifted in spring 2021,facility managers,local and state health agencies were challenged with defining their own policies moving forward to appropriately mitigate disease transmission.The continued emergence of variants of concern and variable vaccineuptake across facilitieshighlighted the need for a readily available tool that can beemployed at the facility-level to determine best practices for mitigation and ensure resident and staff safety.To assist leadership in determining the impact of various infection surveillance and response strategies,we developed an agent-based model and an online dashboard interface that simulates COVID-19 infection within congregate care settings under various mitigation measures.This dashboard quantifies the continued risk for COVID-19 infections within a facility given a designated testing schedule and vaccine requirements.Key findings were that choice of COVID-19 diagnostic(ex.nasal swab qRT-PCR vs rapid antigen)and testing cadence has less impact on attack rate and staff workdays missed than does vaccination rates among staff and residents.Specifically,low vaccine uptake among staff at long-term care facilities puts staff and residents at risk of ongoing COVID-19 outbreaks.Here we present our model and dashboard as an exemplar of a tool for state public health officials and facility directors to gain insights from an infectious disease model that can directly inform policy decisions in the midst of a pandemic.展开更多
文摘With the expansion of vaccination programs,the policy of terminating nonpharmaceutical interventions for preventing the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic should become more flexible.The current study investigated the clinical and economic outcomes of intervention policies combining nonpharmaceutical interventions and vaccination programs for dealing with the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.An agent-based transmission model was adopted that describes how a SARS-CoV-2 virus spreads in the populations of China.The model inputs were derived from the literature and expert opinion.The following intervention policies were simulated:no intervention,strict nonpharmaceutical interventions,and nonpharmaceutical interventions for workplace,community,school and home gradually terminated by combining vaccination programs for specified age groups(vaccination age in years:20-60,20-70,20-80,≥20,≥10 and whole population).Cumulative infections and deaths in one calendar year,costs and quality-adjusted life years(QALYs)were measured.When the vaccination program was taken up in at least the≥20 years age group in all populations,nonpharmaceutical interventions for workplace and community settings could be gradually terminated because the cumulative number of infections was<100 per 100,000 persons.Further ending nonpharmaceutical interventions in school and home settings could not meet the target even when the vaccination program had been taken up in all populations.When cumulative deaths were used as the endpoint,nonpharmaceutical interventions in workplace,community and school settings could be gradually terminated.Vaccine efficacy and coverage have substantial impacts.Terminating nonpharmaceutical interventions in workplace settings could produce the lowest cost when vaccination programs are taken up at least in the≥10 years age group;this method dominates most intervention strategies due to its lower costs and higher QALYs.According to our findings,nonpharmaceutical interventions might be gradually terminated in Chinese settings.
文摘Before vaccine development during the COVID-19 pandemic,Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions(NPIs)were the only solutions to mitigate COVID-19 infections.Governments continued to use them even after starting vaccine administration.In this research,we review different big data analytics models that assess and optimize the effectiveness of NPIs.These models are categorized into three big data analytics groups:descriptive,which measures the infection rate changes caused by NPIs;predictive,which predicts the future of the pandemic by implementing several NPIs;and data-driven prescriptive,which suggests optimal control policies.We further analyze each method’s basic assumptions,limitations,and applicability during different pandemic phases and under different scenarios.This review of COVID-19 NPI evaluation methods will be beneficial for decision-makers to know which model to select for policy-making in possible future pandemics,which are more likely recently due to globalization.Finally,we suggest some future research directions.
文摘Background:A local coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)case confirmed on June 11,2020 triggered an outbreak in Beijing,China after 56 consecutive days without a newly confirmed case.Non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPIs)were used to contain the source in Xinfadi(XFD)market.To rapidly control the outbreak,both traditional and newly introduced NPIs in eluding large-scale management of high-risk populations and expanded severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2)PCR-based screening in the general population were conducted in Beijing.We aimed to assess the effectiveness of the response to the COVID-19 outbreak in Beijing's XFD market and inform future response efforts of resurgence across regions.
基金This work was supported by Colorado State University's Center for Healthy Aging,the Office of the Vice President for Research,the College of Health and Human Sciences,the College of Natural Sciences,the College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences,and the Walter Scott Jr College of Engineering.It was also supported by Colorado Department of Public Health and the Environment,COVID-19 Epidemic Modeling Services(RFAA 202000011320).
文摘The COVID-19 pandemic severely impacted long-term care facilities resulting in the death of approximately 8%of residents nationwide as of March 2021.As COVID-19 case rates declined and state and county restrictions were lifted in spring 2021,facility managers,local and state health agencies were challenged with defining their own policies moving forward to appropriately mitigate disease transmission.The continued emergence of variants of concern and variable vaccineuptake across facilitieshighlighted the need for a readily available tool that can beemployed at the facility-level to determine best practices for mitigation and ensure resident and staff safety.To assist leadership in determining the impact of various infection surveillance and response strategies,we developed an agent-based model and an online dashboard interface that simulates COVID-19 infection within congregate care settings under various mitigation measures.This dashboard quantifies the continued risk for COVID-19 infections within a facility given a designated testing schedule and vaccine requirements.Key findings were that choice of COVID-19 diagnostic(ex.nasal swab qRT-PCR vs rapid antigen)and testing cadence has less impact on attack rate and staff workdays missed than does vaccination rates among staff and residents.Specifically,low vaccine uptake among staff at long-term care facilities puts staff and residents at risk of ongoing COVID-19 outbreaks.Here we present our model and dashboard as an exemplar of a tool for state public health officials and facility directors to gain insights from an infectious disease model that can directly inform policy decisions in the midst of a pandemic.
