The current lithospheric geodynamics and tectonophysics in the Baikal rift are discussed in terms of a nonlinear oscillator with dissipation.The nonlinear oscillator model is applicable to the area because stress chan...The current lithospheric geodynamics and tectonophysics in the Baikal rift are discussed in terms of a nonlinear oscillator with dissipation.The nonlinear oscillator model is applicable to the area because stress change shows up as quasi-periodic inharmonic oscillations at rifting attractor structures （RAS）.The model is consistent with the space-time patterns of regional seismicity in which coupled large earthquakes,proximal in time but distant in space,may be a response to bifurcations in nonlinear resonance hysteresis in a system of three oscillators corresponding to the rifting attractors.The space-time distribution of coupled MLH ＞ 5.5 events has been stable for the period of instrumental seismicity,with the largest events occurring in pairs,one shortly after another,on two ends of the rift system and with couples of smaller events in the central part of the rift.The event couples appear as peaks of earthquake ‘migration＇ rate with an approximately decadal periodicity.Thus the energy accumulated at RAS is released in coupled large events by the mechanism of nonlinear oscillators with dissipation.The new knowledge,with special focus on space-time rifting attractors and bifurcations in a system of nonlinear resonance hysteresis,may be of theoretical and practical value for earthquake prediction issues.Extrapolation of the results into the nearest future indicates the probability of such a bifurcation in the region,i.e.,there is growing risk of a pending M ≈ 7 coupled event to happen within a few years.展开更多
Can earthquakes be predicted？ How should people overcome the difficulties encountered in the study of earthquake prediction？ This issue can take inspiration from the experiences of weather forecast. Although weather...Can earthquakes be predicted？ How should people overcome the difficulties encountered in the study of earthquake prediction？ This issue can take inspiration from the experiences of weather forecast. Although weather forecasting took a period of about half a century to advance from empirical to numerical forecast, it has achieved significant success. A consensus has been reached among the Chinese seismological community that earth- quake prediction must also develop from empirical fore- casting to physical prediction. However, it is seldom mentioned that physical prediction is characterized by quantitatively numerical predictions based on physical laws. This article discusses five key components for numerical earthquake prediction and their current status. We conclude that numerical earthquake prediction should now be put on the planning agenda and its roadmap designed, seismic stations should be deployed and observations made according to the needs of numerical prediction, and theoretical research should be carried out.展开更多
基金supported by grants 09-05-00014-a, and 08-05-90201-Mong_a from the Russian Foundation for Basic Research
文摘The current lithospheric geodynamics and tectonophysics in the Baikal rift are discussed in terms of a nonlinear oscillator with dissipation.The nonlinear oscillator model is applicable to the area because stress change shows up as quasi-periodic inharmonic oscillations at rifting attractor structures （RAS）.The model is consistent with the space-time patterns of regional seismicity in which coupled large earthquakes,proximal in time but distant in space,may be a response to bifurcations in nonlinear resonance hysteresis in a system of three oscillators corresponding to the rifting attractors.The space-time distribution of coupled MLH ＞ 5.5 events has been stable for the period of instrumental seismicity,with the largest events occurring in pairs,one shortly after another,on two ends of the rift system and with couples of smaller events in the central part of the rift.The event couples appear as peaks of earthquake ‘migration＇ rate with an approximately decadal periodicity.Thus the energy accumulated at RAS is released in coupled large events by the mechanism of nonlinear oscillators with dissipation.The new knowledge,with special focus on space-time rifting attractors and bifurcations in a system of nonlinear resonance hysteresis,may be of theoretical and practical value for earthquake prediction issues.Extrapolation of the results into the nearest future indicates the probability of such a bifurcation in the region,i.e.,there is growing risk of a pending M ≈ 7 coupled event to happen within a few years.
基金supported by the CAS/CAFEA international partnership Program for creative research teams (No.KZZD-EW-TZ-19)China National Science and Technology Support Program ‘‘Practical Techniques for Earthquake Analysis and Prediction Research’’ 2012BAK19B03-5
文摘Can earthquakes be predicted？ How should people overcome the difficulties encountered in the study of earthquake prediction？ This issue can take inspiration from the experiences of weather forecast. Although weather forecasting took a period of about half a century to advance from empirical to numerical forecast, it has achieved significant success. A consensus has been reached among the Chinese seismological community that earth- quake prediction must also develop from empirical fore- casting to physical prediction. However, it is seldom mentioned that physical prediction is characterized by quantitatively numerical predictions based on physical laws. This article discusses five key components for numerical earthquake prediction and their current status. We conclude that numerical earthquake prediction should now be put on the planning agenda and its roadmap designed, seismic stations should be deployed and observations made according to the needs of numerical prediction, and theoretical research should be carried out.
