Real time remaining useful life(RUL) prediction based on condition monitoring is an essential part in condition based maintenance(CBM). In the current methods about the real time RUL prediction of the nonlinear degrad...Real time remaining useful life(RUL) prediction based on condition monitoring is an essential part in condition based maintenance(CBM). In the current methods about the real time RUL prediction of the nonlinear degradation process, the measurement error is not considered and forecasting uncertainty is large. Therefore, an approximate analytical RUL distribution in a closed-form of a nonlinear Wiener based degradation process with measurement errors was proposed. The maximum likelihood estimation approach was used to estimate the unknown fixed parameters in the proposed model. When the newly observed data are available, the random parameter is updated by the Bayesian method to make the estimation adapt to the item's individual characteristic and reduce the uncertainty of the estimation. The simulation results show that considering measurement errors in the degradation process can significantly improve the accuracy of real time RUL prediction.展开更多
With the increasing complexity of industrial automation,planetary gearboxes play a vital role in largescale equipment transmission systems,directly impacting operational efficiency and safety.Traditional maintenance s...With the increasing complexity of industrial automation,planetary gearboxes play a vital role in largescale equipment transmission systems,directly impacting operational efficiency and safety.Traditional maintenance strategies often struggle to accurately predict the degradation process of equipment,leading to excessive maintenance costs or potential failure risks.However,existing prediction methods based on statistical models are difficult to adapt to nonlinear degradation processes.To address these challenges,this study proposes a novel condition-based maintenance framework for planetary gearboxes.A comprehensive full-lifecycle degradation experiment was conducted to collect raw vibration signals,which were then processed using a temporal convolutional network autoencoder with multi-scale perception capability to extract deep temporal degradation features,enabling the collaborative extraction of longperiod meshing frequencies and short-term impact features from the vibration signals.Kernel principal component analysis was employed to fuse and normalize these features,enhancing the characterization of degradation progression.A nonlinear Wiener process was used to model the degradation trajectory,with a threshold decay function introduced to dynamically adjust maintenance strategies,and model parameters optimized through maximum likelihood estimation.Meanwhile,the maintenance strategy was optimized to minimize costs per unit time,determining the optimal maintenance timing and preventive maintenance threshold.The comprehensive indicator of degradation trends extracted by this method reaches 0.756,which is 41.2%higher than that of traditional time-domain features;the dynamic threshold strategy reduces the maintenance cost per unit time to 55.56,which is 8.9%better than that of the static threshold optimization.Experimental results demonstrate significant reductions in maintenance costs while enhancing system reliability and safety.This study realizes the organic integration of deep learning and reliability theory in the maintenance of planetary gearboxes,provides an interpretable solution for the predictive maintenance of complex mechanical systems,and promotes the development of condition-based maintenance strategies for planetary gearboxes.展开更多
基金Projects(51475462,61374138,61370031)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Real time remaining useful life(RUL) prediction based on condition monitoring is an essential part in condition based maintenance(CBM). In the current methods about the real time RUL prediction of the nonlinear degradation process, the measurement error is not considered and forecasting uncertainty is large. Therefore, an approximate analytical RUL distribution in a closed-form of a nonlinear Wiener based degradation process with measurement errors was proposed. The maximum likelihood estimation approach was used to estimate the unknown fixed parameters in the proposed model. When the newly observed data are available, the random parameter is updated by the Bayesian method to make the estimation adapt to the item's individual characteristic and reduce the uncertainty of the estimation. The simulation results show that considering measurement errors in the degradation process can significantly improve the accuracy of real time RUL prediction.
基金funded by scientific research projects under Grant JY2024B011.
文摘With the increasing complexity of industrial automation,planetary gearboxes play a vital role in largescale equipment transmission systems,directly impacting operational efficiency and safety.Traditional maintenance strategies often struggle to accurately predict the degradation process of equipment,leading to excessive maintenance costs or potential failure risks.However,existing prediction methods based on statistical models are difficult to adapt to nonlinear degradation processes.To address these challenges,this study proposes a novel condition-based maintenance framework for planetary gearboxes.A comprehensive full-lifecycle degradation experiment was conducted to collect raw vibration signals,which were then processed using a temporal convolutional network autoencoder with multi-scale perception capability to extract deep temporal degradation features,enabling the collaborative extraction of longperiod meshing frequencies and short-term impact features from the vibration signals.Kernel principal component analysis was employed to fuse and normalize these features,enhancing the characterization of degradation progression.A nonlinear Wiener process was used to model the degradation trajectory,with a threshold decay function introduced to dynamically adjust maintenance strategies,and model parameters optimized through maximum likelihood estimation.Meanwhile,the maintenance strategy was optimized to minimize costs per unit time,determining the optimal maintenance timing and preventive maintenance threshold.The comprehensive indicator of degradation trends extracted by this method reaches 0.756,which is 41.2%higher than that of traditional time-domain features;the dynamic threshold strategy reduces the maintenance cost per unit time to 55.56,which is 8.9%better than that of the static threshold optimization.Experimental results demonstrate significant reductions in maintenance costs while enhancing system reliability and safety.This study realizes the organic integration of deep learning and reliability theory in the maintenance of planetary gearboxes,provides an interpretable solution for the predictive maintenance of complex mechanical systems,and promotes the development of condition-based maintenance strategies for planetary gearboxes.
