Understanding the evolutionary trends and driving factors behind extreme hourly precipitation(EHP)in typical urban agglomerations is crucial for predicting and preventing rapid floods.We collected hourly precipitation...Understanding the evolutionary trends and driving factors behind extreme hourly precipitation(EHP)in typical urban agglomerations is crucial for predicting and preventing rapid floods.We collected hourly precipitation datasets from 31 observation stations in the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration(CYA)spanning from 2004 to 2020.Urban and rural observations were dynamically classified based on impervious surface fraction.Linear(Granger)and nonlinear causal methods(convergent cross-mapping and Liang–Kleeman information flow)were used to identify the causal impact mechanisms of large-scale circulation,environment and urbanization on EHP.Moreover,geo-detector further reveals the spatial influence of these factors and their interactions on EHP.Our findings revealed that EHP mainly occurred in the afternoon and at midnight.Also,the frequency and intensity of EHP in the CYA significantly(p≤0.05)increased from 2004 to 2020,especially in urban areas.The increasing rate in urban areas was higher than that in rural areas.However,the duration of EHP/hourly total precipitation exhibited a significant/nonsignificant decreasing trend with no significant difference between urban and rural areas.Causality tests and geo-detector indicated that EHP was impacted by natural variability and urbanization.Large-scale circulation indices such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation,El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation,and Indian Ocean Dipole nonlinearly influenced EHP.Additionally,urban landscape layout,vegetation,and population variation may strengthen EHP by changing environmental factors such as temperature and relative humidity.Interactions exist between these factors and influence EHP,although large-scale circulation remains the dominant influence.With global climate warming and rapid urbanization in the CYA,the frequency and intensity of EHP may further amplify in the future.展开更多
The correlation between Renminbi(RMB) internationalization and nonferrous metal prices was studied using the nonlinear Granger causality test and the dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditio...The correlation between Renminbi(RMB) internationalization and nonferrous metal prices was studied using the nonlinear Granger causality test and the dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic(DCC-GARCH) model. The results indicate that the relationship between RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices reflects a complex nonlinear mechanism. There was no mutual influence between RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices prior to the trials of the RMB settlement in the cross-border trade in July 2009. Since then, however, a bidirectional causal relationship between RMB internationalization and the price of copper and a unidirectional causal relationship from the price of aluminum to RMB internationalization were examined. In addition, due to the impact of extreme events, such as economic and financial crises, RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices are not always positively correlated but are rather occasionally negatively correlated.展开更多
supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.71125005 70871108 and 70810107020;; Outstanding Talents Funds of Organization Department Beijing Committee of CPC
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42461012Yunnan Fundamental Research Projects,No.202201AU070064。
文摘Understanding the evolutionary trends and driving factors behind extreme hourly precipitation(EHP)in typical urban agglomerations is crucial for predicting and preventing rapid floods.We collected hourly precipitation datasets from 31 observation stations in the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration(CYA)spanning from 2004 to 2020.Urban and rural observations were dynamically classified based on impervious surface fraction.Linear(Granger)and nonlinear causal methods(convergent cross-mapping and Liang–Kleeman information flow)were used to identify the causal impact mechanisms of large-scale circulation,environment and urbanization on EHP.Moreover,geo-detector further reveals the spatial influence of these factors and their interactions on EHP.Our findings revealed that EHP mainly occurred in the afternoon and at midnight.Also,the frequency and intensity of EHP in the CYA significantly(p≤0.05)increased from 2004 to 2020,especially in urban areas.The increasing rate in urban areas was higher than that in rural areas.However,the duration of EHP/hourly total precipitation exhibited a significant/nonsignificant decreasing trend with no significant difference between urban and rural areas.Causality tests and geo-detector indicated that EHP was impacted by natural variability and urbanization.Large-scale circulation indices such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation,El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation,and Indian Ocean Dipole nonlinearly influenced EHP.Additionally,urban landscape layout,vegetation,and population variation may strengthen EHP by changing environmental factors such as temperature and relative humidity.Interactions exist between these factors and influence EHP,although large-scale circulation remains the dominant influence.With global climate warming and rapid urbanization in the CYA,the frequency and intensity of EHP may further amplify in the future.
基金Projects(71874210,71633006,71874207,71974208)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2020CX049)supported by Innovation-Driven Foundation of Central South University,China+1 种基金Project(2018dcyj031)supported by Postgraduate Survey Research Foundation of Central South University,ChinaProject(17K103)supported by the Innovation Platform Open Fund Project of Hunan Education Department,China。
文摘The correlation between Renminbi(RMB) internationalization and nonferrous metal prices was studied using the nonlinear Granger causality test and the dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic(DCC-GARCH) model. The results indicate that the relationship between RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices reflects a complex nonlinear mechanism. There was no mutual influence between RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices prior to the trials of the RMB settlement in the cross-border trade in July 2009. Since then, however, a bidirectional causal relationship between RMB internationalization and the price of copper and a unidirectional causal relationship from the price of aluminum to RMB internationalization were examined. In addition, due to the impact of extreme events, such as economic and financial crises, RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices are not always positively correlated but are rather occasionally negatively correlated.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.71001096,70933003,and 71071170
文摘supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.71125005 70871108 and 70810107020;; Outstanding Talents Funds of Organization Department Beijing Committee of CPC
