The disjunct distribution of plants between eastern Asia(EA) and North America(NA) is one of the most well-known biogeographic patterns. However, the formation and historical process of this pattern have been long deb...The disjunct distribution of plants between eastern Asia(EA) and North America(NA) is one of the most well-known biogeographic patterns. However, the formation and historical process of this pattern have been long debated. Chamaecyparis is a good model to test previous hypotheses about the formation of this disjunct pattern as it contains six species disjunctly distributed in EA, western North America(WNA)and eastern North America(ENA). In this study, we applied ecological niche models to test the formation of the disjunct pattern of Chamaecyparis. The model calibrated with the EA species was able to predict the distribution of eastern NA species well, but not the western NA species. Furthermore, the eastern Asian species were shown to have higher niche overlap with the eastern North American species. The EA species were also shown to share more similar habitats with ENA species than with WNA species in the genus. Chamaecyparis species in WNA experienced a significant niche shift compared with congeneric species. Chamaecyparis had a low number of suitable regions in Europe and the middle and western NA during the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM) period, and became extinct in the former region whereas it retains residual distribution in the latter. The extirpations in western NA and Europe in response to the late Neogene and Quaternary climatic cooling and the more similar habitats between ENA and EA ultimately shaped the current intercontinental disjunct distribution of Chamaecyparis. Both current hypotheses may be also jointly applied to explain more eastern Asian and eastern North American disjunctions observed today.展开更多
The Chinese yew（Taxus wallichiana）,which is widely distributed in the Himalayas and in southern China,is now on the edge of extinction.In order to understand the evolutionary processes that control the current diver...The Chinese yew（Taxus wallichiana）,which is widely distributed in the Himalayas and in southern China,is now on the edge of extinction.In order to understand the evolutionary processes that control the current diversity within this species at the genetic and ecological levels,its genetic patterns and range dynamics must first be identified and mapped.This knowledge can then be applied in the development of an effective conservation strategy.Based on molecular data obtained from 48 populations of T.wallichiana,we used GIS-based interpolation approach for the explicit visualization of patterns of genetic divergence and diversity,and a number of potential evolutionary hotspots have been specifically identified within the genetic landscape maps.Within the maps of genetic divergence and diversity,five areas of high inter-population genetic divergence and six areas of high intra-population genetic diversity have been highlighted in a number of separate mountain regions,and these evolutionary hotspots should have the priority to be protected.Furthermore,four geographical barriers have been identified： the eastern Himalayas,the Yunnan Plateau,the Hengduan Mountains and the Taiwan Strait.According to ecological niche modeling（ENM）,the populations of T.wallichiana within the Sino-Himalayan Forest floristic subkingdom experienced westward expansion from the periods of Last Inter-glacial to Last Glacial Maximum（LGM）.Following the LGM,the distribution range overall became reduced and fragmented.These findings challenge the classic mode of contraction-expansion in response to the last glaciation.In conclusion,our findings suggest that the changes in geographical landscapes and climate that occurred during the Quaternary resulted in current genetic landscape patterns.展开更多
Background Cryptosporidiosis is a zoonotic intestinal infectious disease caused by Cryptosporidium spp.,and its transmission is highly influenced by climate factors.In the present study,the potential spatial distribut...Background Cryptosporidiosis is a zoonotic intestinal infectious disease caused by Cryptosporidium spp.,and its transmission is highly influenced by climate factors.In the present study,the potential spatial distribution of Cryptosporidium in China was predicted based on ecological niche models for cryptosporidiosis epidemic risk warning and prevention and control.Methods The applicability of existing Cryptosporidium presence points in ENM analysis was investigated based on data from monitoring sites in 2011–2019.Cryptosporidium occurrence data for China and neighboring countries were extracted and used to construct the ENMs,namely Maxent,Bioclim,Domain,and Garp.Models were evaluated based on Receiver Operating Characteristic curve,Kappa,and True Skill Statistic coefficients.The best model was constructed using Cryptosporidium data and climate variables during 1986‒2010,and used to analyze the effects of climate factors on Cryptosporidium distribution.The climate variables for the period 2011‒2100 were projected to the simulation results to predict the ecological adaptability and potential distribution of Cryptosporidium in future in China.Results The Maxent model(AUC=0.95,maximum Kappa=0.91,maximum TSS=1.00)fit better than the other three models and was thus considered the best ENM for predicting Cryptosporidium habitat suitability.The major suitable habitats for human-derived Cryptosporidium in China were located in some high-population density areas,especially in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,the lower reaches of the Yellow River,and the Huai and the Pearl River Basins(cloglog value of habitat suitability>0.9).Under future climate change,non-suitable habitats for Cryptosporidium will shrink,while highly suitable habitats will expand significantly(χ^(2)=76.641,P<0.01;χ^(2)=86.836,P<0.01),and the main changes will likely be concentrated in the northeastern,southwestern,and northwestern regions.Conclusions The Maxent model is applicable in prediction of Cryptosporidium habitat suitability and can achieve excellent simulation results.These results suggest a current high risk of transmission and significant pressure for cryptosporidiosis prevention and control in China.Against a future climate change background,Cryptosporidium may gain more suitable habitats within China.Constructing a national surveillance network could facilitate further elucidation of the epidemiological trends and transmission patterns of cryptosporidiosis,and mitigate the associated epidemic and outbreak risks.展开更多
The study of plant species abundance distribution(SAD)in natural communities is of considerable importance to understand the processes and ecological rules of community assembly.With the distribution of tree,shrub and...The study of plant species abundance distribution(SAD)in natural communities is of considerable importance to understand the processes and ecological rules of community assembly.With the distribution of tree,shrub and herb layers of eight natural communities of Toona ciliata as research targets,three diff erent ecological niche models were used:broken stick model,overlapping niche model and niche preemption model,as well as three statistical models:log-series distribution model,log-normal distribution model and Weibull distribution model,to fi t SAD of the diff erent vegetation layers based on data collected.Goodness-of-fi t was compared with Chi square test,Kolmogorov–Smirnov(K–S)test and Akaike Information Criterion(AIC).The results show:(1)based on the criteria of the lowest AIC value,Chi square value and K–S value with no signifi cant diff erence(p>0.05)between theoretic and observed SADs.The suitability and goodness-of-fi t of the broken stick model was the best of three ecological niche models.The log-series distribution model did not accept the fi tted results of most vegetation layers and had the lowest goodness-of-fi t.The Weibull distribution model had the best goodness-of-fi t for SADs.Overall,the statistical SADs performed better than the ecological ones.(2)T.ciliata was the dominant species in all the communities;species richness and diversity of herbs were the highest of the vegetation layers,while the diversities of the tree layers were slightly higher than the shrub layers;there were fewer common species and more rare species in the eight communities.The herb layers had the highest community evenness,followed by the shrub and the tree layers.Due to the complexity and habitat diversity of the diff erent T.ciliata communities,comprehensive analyses of a variety of SADs and tests for optimal models together with management,are practical steps to enhance understanding of ecological processes and mechanisms of T.ciliata communities,to detect disturbances,and to facilitate biodiversity and species conservation.展开更多
Predictive studies play a crucial role in the study of biological invasions of terrestrial plants under possible climate change scenarios.Invasive species are recognized for their ability to modify soil microbial comm...Predictive studies play a crucial role in the study of biological invasions of terrestrial plants under possible climate change scenarios.Invasive species are recognized for their ability to modify soil microbial communities and influence ecosystem dynamics.Here,we focused on six species of allelopathic flowering plants-Ailanthus altissima,Casuarina equisetifolia,Centaurea stoebe ssp.micranthos,Dioscorea bulbifera,Lantana camara,and Schinus terebinthifolia-Xhat are invasive in North America and examined their potential to spread further during projected climate change.We used Species Distribution Models(SDMs)to predict future suitable areas for these species in North America under several proposed future climate models.ENMEval and Maxent were used to develop SDMs,estimate current distributions,and predict future areas of suitable climate for each species.Areas with the greatest predicted suitable climate in the future include the northeastern and the coastal northwestern regions of North America.Range size estimations demonstrate the possibility of extreme range loss for these invasives in the southeastern United States,while new areas may become suitable in the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada.These findings show an overall northward shift of suitable climate during the next few decades,given projected changes in temperature and precipitation.Our results can be utilized to analyze potential shifts in the distribution of these invasive species and may aid in the development of conservation and management plans to target and control dissemination in areas at higher risk for potential future invasion by these allelopathic species.展开更多
Species distribution models are increasing in popularity for mapping suitable habitat for species of management con- cern. Many investigators now recognize that extrapolations of these models with geographic informati...Species distribution models are increasing in popularity for mapping suitable habitat for species of management con- cern. Many investigators now recognize that extrapolations of these models with geographic information systems （GIS） might be sensitive to the environmental bounds of the data used in their development, yet there is no recommended best practice for ＂clamping＂ model extrapolations. We relied on two commonly used modeling approaches： classification and regression tree （CART） and maximum entropy （Maxent） models, and we tested a simple alteration of the model extrapolations, bounding ex- trapolations to the maximum and minimum values of primary environmental predictors, to provide a more realistic map of suit-able habitat of hybridized Africanized honey bees in the southwestern United States. Findings suggest that multiple models of bounding, and the most conservative bounding of species distribution models, like those presented here, should probably replace the unbounded or loosely bounded techniques currently used [Current Zoology 57 （5）： 642-647,2011].展开更多
Bactrocera bryoniae and Bactrocera neohumeralis are highly destructive and major biosecurity/quarantine pests of fruit and vegetable in the tropical and subtropical regions in the South Pacific and Australia.Although ...Bactrocera bryoniae and Bactrocera neohumeralis are highly destructive and major biosecurity/quarantine pests of fruit and vegetable in the tropical and subtropical regions in the South Pacific and Australia.Although these pests have not established in China,precautions must be taken due to their highly destructive nature.Thus,we predicted the potential geographic distribution of B.bryoniae and B.neohumeralis across the world and in particular China by ecological niche modeling of the Maximum Entropy(Max Ent)model with the occurrence records of these two species.Bactrocera bryoniae and B.neohumeralis exhibit similar potential geographic distribution ranges across the world and in China,and each species was predicted to be able to distribute to over 20%of the globe.Globally,the potential geographic distribution ranges for these two fruit fly species included southern Asia,the central and the southeast coast of Africa,southern North America,northern and central South America,and Australia.While within China,most of the southern Yangtze River area was found suitable for these species.Notably,southern China was considered to have the highest risk of B.bryoniae and B.neohumeralis invasions.Our study identifies the regions at high risk for potential establishment of B.bryoniae and B.neohumeralis in the world and in particular China,and informs the development of inspection and biosecurity/quarantine measures to prevent and control their invasions.展开更多
The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is the word＇s highest and largest plateau. Due to increasing demands for environment exploration and tourism, a large transitional area is required for altitude adaptation. Hehuang valley, w...The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is the word＇s highest and largest plateau. Due to increasing demands for environment exploration and tourism, a large transitional area is required for altitude adaptation. Hehuang valley, which locates in the transition zone between the Loess Plateau and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, has convenient transportation and relatively low elevation. Our question is whether the geographic conditions here are appropriate for adapted stay before going into the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Therefore, in this study, we examined the potential use of ecological niche modeling （ENM） for mapping current and potential distribution patterns of human settlements. We chose the Maximum Entropy Method （Maxent）, an ENM which integrates climate, remote sensing and geographical data, to model distributions and assess land suitability for transition areas. After preprocessing and selection, the correlation between variables and spatial auto- correlation input data were removed and 106 occurrence points and 9 environmental layers were determined as the model inputs. The threshold- independent model performance was reasonable according to lO times model running, with the area under the curve （AUC） values being 0.917± 0.01, and 0.923±0.002 for test data. Cohen＇s kappa coefficient of model performance was 0.848. Results showed that 82.22% of the study extent was not suitable for human settlement. Of the remaining areas, highly suitable areas aceounted for 1.19%, moderately for 5.3% and marginally for 11.28%. These suitable areas totaled 418.79 km2, and 86.25% of the sample data was identified in the different gradient of suitable area.The decisive environmental factors were slope and two climate variables： mean diurnal temperature range and temperature seasonality. Our model showed a good performance in mapping and assessing human settlements. This study provides the first predicted potential habitat distribution map for human settlement in Ledu County, which could also help in land use management.展开更多
Scorpion fauna of Mongolia, which are thus far poorly understood, were investigated country-wide during a China-Mongolia joint field survey from 2009 to 2012. Of the total 134 sites we surveyed, scorpions were found a...Scorpion fauna of Mongolia, which are thus far poorly understood, were investigated country-wide during a China-Mongolia joint field survey from 2009 to 2012. Of the total 134 sites we surveyed, scorpions were found at 10 sites in the southern Gobi regions, Umnugovi and Dornogovi Aimags （Provinces） of Mongolia. All scorpions collected from Mongolia belong to a single species, Mesobuthus eupeus mongolicus. Combining with its occurrence records in China, we assembled 98 presence data for M. eupeus mongolicus and predicted its geographical distribution using ecological niche modeling approach. This species occurs exclusively in the arid deserts and steppes, ranging from the west extreme of Junggar Basin （Xinjiang） to the Gobi deserts in North China and South Mongolia, with its distributional margins set by the Altai Mountains in the north, the Tian-Shan Mountains and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in the south, and the Loess Plateau in the east. We found that ecological niche models could accurately predict （AUC = 0.880 ± 0.016） geographic distribution of M. eupeus mongolicus. Our results show that climate is a reliable predictor for the geographic range of M. eupeus mongolicus, implying that climate might have exerted a dominant control over the natural occurrence of this species. A brief note on the ecology ofM. eupeus mongolicus was also provided,展开更多
Species distribution models are used to aid our understanding of the processes driving the spatial patterns of species’ habitats. This approach has received criticism, however, largely because it neglects landscape m...Species distribution models are used to aid our understanding of the processes driving the spatial patterns of species’ habitats. This approach has received criticism, however, largely because it neglects landscape metrics. We examined the relative impacts of landscape predictors on the accuracy of habitat models by constructing distribution models at regional scales incorporating environmental variables (climate, topography, vegetation, and soil types) and secondary species occurrence data, and using them to predict the occurrence of 36 species in 15 forest fragments where we conducted rapid surveys. We then selected six landscape predictors at the landscape scale and ran general linear models of species presence/absence with either a single scale predictor (the probabilities of occurrence of the distribution models or landscape variables) or multiple scale predictors (distribution models + one landscape variable). Our results indicated that distribution models alone had poor predictive abilities but were improved when landscape predictors were added; the species responses were not, however, similar to the multiple scale predictors. Our study thus highlights the importance of considering landscape metrics to generate more accurate habitat suitability models.展开更多
Contrasting multiple organisms with similar contemporary distributions, researchers can identify shared evolutionary patterns and provide historical context for community composition. We used three species complexes w...Contrasting multiple organisms with similar contemporary distributions, researchers can identify shared evolutionary patterns and provide historical context for community composition. We used three species complexes with overlapping distributions in Southeastern China and surrounding islands to explore the phylogeographic history of the region. Despite similar geographic distributions, genetic data revealed few congruent patterns, but all complexes displayed genetic divergence for Taiwan Residents populations. Additionally, niche modeling and divergence dating did not find support for diversification associated with the Last Glacial Maximum [Current Zoology 61 （5）： 943-950,2015].展开更多
Reliable delimitation of venomous scorpions is not only consequential to toxicological studies but also instructive to conservation and exploration of these important medical resources.In the present study,we delimite...Reliable delimitation of venomous scorpions is not only consequential to toxicological studies but also instructive to conservation and exploration of these important medical resources.In the present study,we delimited species boundary for the the Przewalski’s scorpion from arid northwest China through a combined approach employing phylogenetic analysis,ecological niche modeling and morphological comparison.Our results indicate that the Przewalski’s scorpion represent an independent taxonomic unit and should be recognized as full species rank,Mesobuthus przewalskii stat.nov.This species and the Chinese scorpion M.martensii represent the eastern members of the M.caucasicus species group which manifests a trans-Central Asia distribution across the Tianshan Mountains range.We also discussed the likely geographic barrier and climatic boundary that demarcate distributional range of the the Przewalski’s scorpion.展开更多
The ecological-niche models for two sympatric species,Eremias lineolata(Nikolsky,1897)and Eremias scripta(Strauch,1867),reveal evidence of spatial and temporal disjunction in the actual niches of both species.Eremias ...The ecological-niche models for two sympatric species,Eremias lineolata(Nikolsky,1897)and Eremias scripta(Strauch,1867),reveal evidence of spatial and temporal disjunction in the actual niches of both species.Eremias lineolata demonstrates a wide range of adaptations and,at the same time,has a greater need for winter precipitation and minimal temperature than E.scripta.Possible explanations for the thermal diversity of both species are provided.Thermal variables(monthly temperatures,monthly solar radiation,etc.)are traditionally important for ectotherm animals.Interestingly,as many as half of the key variables in both species are related to different aspects of environmental water balance(precipitation,air humidity,vapor pressure).There are several ways in which moisture may impact the lizard’s life cycle.Soil humidity is related to soil temperature and may be important during winter hibernation.In summer,soil humidity may support successful embryogenesis.Precipitation during the warm months is a key factor in maintaining the moisture content of the soil.In winter,snow cover provides a better thermal balance of the soil’s top layers where winter shelters are housed.Ecological niche modeling(ENM)is an interdisciplinary approach combining the geographical,climatic,ecological,and biological aspects of the wellbeing of species.This interdisciplinary approach lifts biological studies onto a new,integrative level,providing a comprehensive view on species biology and answering the questions that might not be answered if the traditional methods for studying animals were used alone.展开更多
To the Editor:We read with interest the article by Wang et al.,titled"Modeling the spread risk of dengue vector Aedes albopictus caused by environmental factors in Shanghai,China"[1].The use of ensemble ecol...To the Editor:We read with interest the article by Wang et al.,titled"Modeling the spread risk of dengue vector Aedes albopictus caused by environmental factors in Shanghai,China"[1].The use of ensemble ecological niche models to map Aedes albopictus distribution in urban Shanghai is both timely and methodologically sound.The identified drivers-vegetation index,temperature,and proximity to water-are well-known contributors to vector proliferation.However,one dimension remains notably underrepresented:human behavioral factors.展开更多
Comprehensive phylogeographic insights require the integration of evidence across diverse taxa,ecosystems,and geographical regions.However,our understanding of the arid biota of the vast Asian drylands remains limited...Comprehensive phylogeographic insights require the integration of evidence across diverse taxa,ecosystems,and geographical regions.However,our understanding of the arid biota of the vast Asian drylands remains limited.Accordingly,this study combined phylogeographic analyses with ecological niche modeling to investigate patterns of diversification and demography of the Central Asian racerunner(Eremias vermiculata),a widespread lizard inhabiting arid eastern-Central Asia(AECA).Mitochondrial DNA(mtDNA)sequences were obtained from 876 individuals across 113 localities,while three nuclear genes-CGNL1,MAP1A,andβ-fibint7-were sequenced from 204,170,and 138 individuals,respectively.Analyses identified four distinct mtDNA lineages corresponding to specific geographic subregions within the AECA,reflecting the topographic and ecological heterogeneity of the region.The detection of mito-nuclear discordance indicated the presence of complex evolutionary dynamics.Divergence dating placed the initial lineage splits at approximately 1.18 million years ago,coinciding with major tectonic activity and climatic aridification that likely promoted allopatric divergence.In particular,lineage diversification within the Tarim Basin suggests that recent environmental shifts may have contributed to genetic divergence.Demographic reconstructions revealed signatures of population expansion or range shifts across all lineages during the Last Glacial Maximum,signifying the combined influence of the unique topography and climate dynamics of the AECA on diversification and demographic change.These results highlight the need for fine-scale genomic investigations to clarify the mechanisms underlying mito-nuclear discordance and local adaptation.Such efforts are essential for advancing understanding of how genetic diversity in dryland taxa responds to environmental change,providing insights into the evolutionary adaptability of species in dynamic landscapes.展开更多
Climate change is ranked as one of the most severe threats to global biodiversity. This global phenomenon is particularly true for reptiles whose biology and ecology are closely linked to climate. In this study, we us...Climate change is ranked as one of the most severe threats to global biodiversity. This global phenomenon is particularly true for reptiles whose biology and ecology are closely linked to climate. In this study, we used over 1,300 independent occurrence points and different climate change emission scenarios to evaluate the potential risk of changing climatic conditions on the current and future potential distribution of a rock-dwelling lizard; the velvet gecko. Furthermore, we investigated if the current extent of protected area networks in Australia captures the full range distribution of this species currently and in the future. Our results show that climate change projections for the year 2075 have the potential to alter the distribution of the velvet gecko in southeastern Australia. Specifically, climate change may favor the range expansion of this species to encompass more suitable habitats. The trend of range expansion was qualitatively similar across the different cli- mate change scenarios used. Additionally, we observed that the current network of protected areas in southeast Australia does not fully account for the full range distribution of this species currently and in the future. Ongoing climate change may profoundly affect the potential range distribution of the velvet gecko population. Therefore, the restricted habitat of the velvet geckos should be the focus of intensive pre-emptive management efforts. This management prioritization should be extended to encompass the increases in suitable habitats observed in this study in order to maximize the microhabitats available for the survival of this species.展开更多
基金funded by grants from the Ministry of Science and Technology of China, Basic Research Project(No. 2013FY112600)the Talent Project of Yunnan Province(No. 2011CI042)
文摘The disjunct distribution of plants between eastern Asia(EA) and North America(NA) is one of the most well-known biogeographic patterns. However, the formation and historical process of this pattern have been long debated. Chamaecyparis is a good model to test previous hypotheses about the formation of this disjunct pattern as it contains six species disjunctly distributed in EA, western North America(WNA)and eastern North America(ENA). In this study, we applied ecological niche models to test the formation of the disjunct pattern of Chamaecyparis. The model calibrated with the EA species was able to predict the distribution of eastern NA species well, but not the western NA species. Furthermore, the eastern Asian species were shown to have higher niche overlap with the eastern North American species. The EA species were also shown to share more similar habitats with ENA species than with WNA species in the genus. Chamaecyparis species in WNA experienced a significant niche shift compared with congeneric species. Chamaecyparis had a low number of suitable regions in Europe and the middle and western NA during the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM) period, and became extinct in the former region whereas it retains residual distribution in the latter. The extirpations in western NA and Europe in response to the late Neogene and Quaternary climatic cooling and the more similar habitats between ENA and EA ultimately shaped the current intercontinental disjunct distribution of Chamaecyparis. Both current hypotheses may be also jointly applied to explain more eastern Asian and eastern North American disjunctions observed today.
基金National Basic Research Program of China(No.2010CB951704)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41271068)
文摘The Chinese yew（Taxus wallichiana）,which is widely distributed in the Himalayas and in southern China,is now on the edge of extinction.In order to understand the evolutionary processes that control the current diversity within this species at the genetic and ecological levels,its genetic patterns and range dynamics must first be identified and mapped.This knowledge can then be applied in the development of an effective conservation strategy.Based on molecular data obtained from 48 populations of T.wallichiana,we used GIS-based interpolation approach for the explicit visualization of patterns of genetic divergence and diversity,and a number of potential evolutionary hotspots have been specifically identified within the genetic landscape maps.Within the maps of genetic divergence and diversity,five areas of high inter-population genetic divergence and six areas of high intra-population genetic diversity have been highlighted in a number of separate mountain regions,and these evolutionary hotspots should have the priority to be protected.Furthermore,four geographical barriers have been identified： the eastern Himalayas,the Yunnan Plateau,the Hengduan Mountains and the Taiwan Strait.According to ecological niche modeling（ENM）,the populations of T.wallichiana within the Sino-Himalayan Forest floristic subkingdom experienced westward expansion from the periods of Last Inter-glacial to Last Glacial Maximum（LGM）.Following the LGM,the distribution range overall became reduced and fragmented.These findings challenge the classic mode of contraction-expansion in response to the last glaciation.In conclusion,our findings suggest that the changes in geographical landscapes and climate that occurred during the Quaternary resulted in current genetic landscape patterns.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.81971969,82272369 to JC)the Three-Year Public Health Action Plan(2020–2022)of Shanghai(No.GWV-10.1-XK13 to JC)the Research Projects of Shanghai Municipal Health Commission(No.2021Y0213 to XW).
文摘Background Cryptosporidiosis is a zoonotic intestinal infectious disease caused by Cryptosporidium spp.,and its transmission is highly influenced by climate factors.In the present study,the potential spatial distribution of Cryptosporidium in China was predicted based on ecological niche models for cryptosporidiosis epidemic risk warning and prevention and control.Methods The applicability of existing Cryptosporidium presence points in ENM analysis was investigated based on data from monitoring sites in 2011–2019.Cryptosporidium occurrence data for China and neighboring countries were extracted and used to construct the ENMs,namely Maxent,Bioclim,Domain,and Garp.Models were evaluated based on Receiver Operating Characteristic curve,Kappa,and True Skill Statistic coefficients.The best model was constructed using Cryptosporidium data and climate variables during 1986‒2010,and used to analyze the effects of climate factors on Cryptosporidium distribution.The climate variables for the period 2011‒2100 were projected to the simulation results to predict the ecological adaptability and potential distribution of Cryptosporidium in future in China.Results The Maxent model(AUC=0.95,maximum Kappa=0.91,maximum TSS=1.00)fit better than the other three models and was thus considered the best ENM for predicting Cryptosporidium habitat suitability.The major suitable habitats for human-derived Cryptosporidium in China were located in some high-population density areas,especially in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,the lower reaches of the Yellow River,and the Huai and the Pearl River Basins(cloglog value of habitat suitability>0.9).Under future climate change,non-suitable habitats for Cryptosporidium will shrink,while highly suitable habitats will expand significantly(χ^(2)=76.641,P<0.01;χ^(2)=86.836,P<0.01),and the main changes will likely be concentrated in the northeastern,southwestern,and northwestern regions.Conclusions The Maxent model is applicable in prediction of Cryptosporidium habitat suitability and can achieve excellent simulation results.These results suggest a current high risk of transmission and significant pressure for cryptosporidiosis prevention and control in China.Against a future climate change background,Cryptosporidium may gain more suitable habitats within China.Constructing a national surveillance network could facilitate further elucidation of the epidemiological trends and transmission patterns of cryptosporidiosis,and mitigate the associated epidemic and outbreak risks.
基金Hubei Provincial Department of Science and Technology,under the public welfare research project[No.402012DBA40001]Hubei Provincial Department of Education,under the scientifi c research project[No.B20160555].
文摘The study of plant species abundance distribution(SAD)in natural communities is of considerable importance to understand the processes and ecological rules of community assembly.With the distribution of tree,shrub and herb layers of eight natural communities of Toona ciliata as research targets,three diff erent ecological niche models were used:broken stick model,overlapping niche model and niche preemption model,as well as three statistical models:log-series distribution model,log-normal distribution model and Weibull distribution model,to fi t SAD of the diff erent vegetation layers based on data collected.Goodness-of-fi t was compared with Chi square test,Kolmogorov–Smirnov(K–S)test and Akaike Information Criterion(AIC).The results show:(1)based on the criteria of the lowest AIC value,Chi square value and K–S value with no signifi cant diff erence(p>0.05)between theoretic and observed SADs.The suitability and goodness-of-fi t of the broken stick model was the best of three ecological niche models.The log-series distribution model did not accept the fi tted results of most vegetation layers and had the lowest goodness-of-fi t.The Weibull distribution model had the best goodness-of-fi t for SADs.Overall,the statistical SADs performed better than the ecological ones.(2)T.ciliata was the dominant species in all the communities;species richness and diversity of herbs were the highest of the vegetation layers,while the diversities of the tree layers were slightly higher than the shrub layers;there were fewer common species and more rare species in the eight communities.The herb layers had the highest community evenness,followed by the shrub and the tree layers.Due to the complexity and habitat diversity of the diff erent T.ciliata communities,comprehensive analyses of a variety of SADs and tests for optimal models together with management,are practical steps to enhance understanding of ecological processes and mechanisms of T.ciliata communities,to detect disturbances,and to facilitate biodiversity and species conservation.
基金This research was supported by NSF grants DBI-1458640 and DBI-1547229.
文摘Predictive studies play a crucial role in the study of biological invasions of terrestrial plants under possible climate change scenarios.Invasive species are recognized for their ability to modify soil microbial communities and influence ecosystem dynamics.Here,we focused on six species of allelopathic flowering plants-Ailanthus altissima,Casuarina equisetifolia,Centaurea stoebe ssp.micranthos,Dioscorea bulbifera,Lantana camara,and Schinus terebinthifolia-Xhat are invasive in North America and examined their potential to spread further during projected climate change.We used Species Distribution Models(SDMs)to predict future suitable areas for these species in North America under several proposed future climate models.ENMEval and Maxent were used to develop SDMs,estimate current distributions,and predict future areas of suitable climate for each species.Areas with the greatest predicted suitable climate in the future include the northeastern and the coastal northwestern regions of North America.Range size estimations demonstrate the possibility of extreme range loss for these invasives in the southeastern United States,while new areas may become suitable in the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada.These findings show an overall northward shift of suitable climate during the next few decades,given projected changes in temperature and precipitation.Our results can be utilized to analyze potential shifts in the distribution of these invasive species and may aid in the development of conservation and management plans to target and control dissemination in areas at higher risk for potential future invasion by these allelopathic species.
文摘Species distribution models are increasing in popularity for mapping suitable habitat for species of management con- cern. Many investigators now recognize that extrapolations of these models with geographic information systems （GIS） might be sensitive to the environmental bounds of the data used in their development, yet there is no recommended best practice for ＂clamping＂ model extrapolations. We relied on two commonly used modeling approaches： classification and regression tree （CART） and maximum entropy （Maxent） models, and we tested a simple alteration of the model extrapolations, bounding ex- trapolations to the maximum and minimum values of primary environmental predictors, to provide a more realistic map of suit-able habitat of hybridized Africanized honey bees in the southwestern United States. Findings suggest that multiple models of bounding, and the most conservative bounding of species distribution models, like those presented here, should probably replace the unbounded or loosely bounded techniques currently used [Current Zoology 57 （5）： 642-647,2011].
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(2017YFC1200600 and 2016YFC1202104)the Innovation Team of Modern Agricultural Industry Generic Key Technology R&D of Guangdong Province,China(2019KJ134)+1 种基金the Open Fund of the Guangxi Key Laboratory of Biology for Crop Diseases and Insect Pests,China(2016-KF-3)A student scholarship was provided by the Harry Butler Institute,Murdoch University,Australia。
文摘Bactrocera bryoniae and Bactrocera neohumeralis are highly destructive and major biosecurity/quarantine pests of fruit and vegetable in the tropical and subtropical regions in the South Pacific and Australia.Although these pests have not established in China,precautions must be taken due to their highly destructive nature.Thus,we predicted the potential geographic distribution of B.bryoniae and B.neohumeralis across the world and in particular China by ecological niche modeling of the Maximum Entropy(Max Ent)model with the occurrence records of these two species.Bactrocera bryoniae and B.neohumeralis exhibit similar potential geographic distribution ranges across the world and in China,and each species was predicted to be able to distribute to over 20%of the globe.Globally,the potential geographic distribution ranges for these two fruit fly species included southern Asia,the central and the southeast coast of Africa,southern North America,northern and central South America,and Australia.While within China,most of the southern Yangtze River area was found suitable for these species.Notably,southern China was considered to have the highest risk of B.bryoniae and B.neohumeralis invasions.Our study identifies the regions at high risk for potential establishment of B.bryoniae and B.neohumeralis in the world and in particular China,and informs the development of inspection and biosecurity/quarantine measures to prevent and control their invasions.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41171330)National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863 Program)(Grant No. 2013AA12A302)the Special Foundation for Free Exploration of State Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science (Grant No.Y1Y00245KZ)
文摘The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is the word＇s highest and largest plateau. Due to increasing demands for environment exploration and tourism, a large transitional area is required for altitude adaptation. Hehuang valley, which locates in the transition zone between the Loess Plateau and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, has convenient transportation and relatively low elevation. Our question is whether the geographic conditions here are appropriate for adapted stay before going into the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Therefore, in this study, we examined the potential use of ecological niche modeling （ENM） for mapping current and potential distribution patterns of human settlements. We chose the Maximum Entropy Method （Maxent）, an ENM which integrates climate, remote sensing and geographical data, to model distributions and assess land suitability for transition areas. After preprocessing and selection, the correlation between variables and spatial auto- correlation input data were removed and 106 occurrence points and 9 environmental layers were determined as the model inputs. The threshold- independent model performance was reasonable according to lO times model running, with the area under the curve （AUC） values being 0.917± 0.01, and 0.923±0.002 for test data. Cohen＇s kappa coefficient of model performance was 0.848. Results showed that 82.22% of the study extent was not suitable for human settlement. Of the remaining areas, highly suitable areas aceounted for 1.19%, moderately for 5.3% and marginally for 11.28%. These suitable areas totaled 418.79 km2, and 86.25% of the sample data was identified in the different gradient of suitable area.The decisive environmental factors were slope and two climate variables： mean diurnal temperature range and temperature seasonality. Our model showed a good performance in mapping and assessing human settlements. This study provides the first predicted potential habitat distribution map for human settlement in Ledu County, which could also help in land use management.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(31000951)the External Cooperation Program of BIC,Chinese Academy of Sciences(GJHZ201311,GJHZ1023)
文摘Scorpion fauna of Mongolia, which are thus far poorly understood, were investigated country-wide during a China-Mongolia joint field survey from 2009 to 2012. Of the total 134 sites we surveyed, scorpions were found at 10 sites in the southern Gobi regions, Umnugovi and Dornogovi Aimags （Provinces） of Mongolia. All scorpions collected from Mongolia belong to a single species, Mesobuthus eupeus mongolicus. Combining with its occurrence records in China, we assembled 98 presence data for M. eupeus mongolicus and predicted its geographical distribution using ecological niche modeling approach. This species occurs exclusively in the arid deserts and steppes, ranging from the west extreme of Junggar Basin （Xinjiang） to the Gobi deserts in North China and South Mongolia, with its distributional margins set by the Altai Mountains in the north, the Tian-Shan Mountains and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in the south, and the Loess Plateau in the east. We found that ecological niche models could accurately predict （AUC = 0.880 ± 0.016） geographic distribution of M. eupeus mongolicus. Our results show that climate is a reliable predictor for the geographic range of M. eupeus mongolicus, implying that climate might have exerted a dominant control over the natural occurrence of this species. A brief note on the ecology ofM. eupeus mongolicus was also provided,
基金supported by the Biota Minas Program(Proc.No.APQ 03549-09)FAPEMIG(Proc.No.PCE-00106-12)
文摘Species distribution models are used to aid our understanding of the processes driving the spatial patterns of species’ habitats. This approach has received criticism, however, largely because it neglects landscape metrics. We examined the relative impacts of landscape predictors on the accuracy of habitat models by constructing distribution models at regional scales incorporating environmental variables (climate, topography, vegetation, and soil types) and secondary species occurrence data, and using them to predict the occurrence of 36 species in 15 forest fragments where we conducted rapid surveys. We then selected six landscape predictors at the landscape scale and ran general linear models of species presence/absence with either a single scale predictor (the probabilities of occurrence of the distribution models or landscape variables) or multiple scale predictors (distribution models + one landscape variable). Our results indicated that distribution models alone had poor predictive abilities but were improved when landscape predictors were added; the species responses were not, however, similar to the multiple scale predictors. Our study thus highlights the importance of considering landscape metrics to generate more accurate habitat suitability models.
文摘Contrasting multiple organisms with similar contemporary distributions, researchers can identify shared evolutionary patterns and provide historical context for community composition. We used three species complexes with overlapping distributions in Southeastern China and surrounding islands to explore the phylogeographic history of the region. Despite similar geographic distributions, genetic data revealed few congruent patterns, but all complexes displayed genetic divergence for Taiwan Residents populations. Additionally, niche modeling and divergence dating did not find support for diversification associated with the Last Glacial Maximum [Current Zoology 61 （5）： 943-950,2015].
基金founded by the Natural Science Foundation of China(31772435)
文摘Reliable delimitation of venomous scorpions is not only consequential to toxicological studies but also instructive to conservation and exploration of these important medical resources.In the present study,we delimited species boundary for the the Przewalski’s scorpion from arid northwest China through a combined approach employing phylogenetic analysis,ecological niche modeling and morphological comparison.Our results indicate that the Przewalski’s scorpion represent an independent taxonomic unit and should be recognized as full species rank,Mesobuthus przewalskii stat.nov.This species and the Chinese scorpion M.martensii represent the eastern members of the M.caucasicus species group which manifests a trans-Central Asia distribution across the Tianshan Mountains range.We also discussed the likely geographic barrier and climatic boundary that demarcate distributional range of the the Przewalski’s scorpion.
基金This research has been funded by the Science Committee of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan(No.AP08855831).
文摘The ecological-niche models for two sympatric species,Eremias lineolata(Nikolsky,1897)and Eremias scripta(Strauch,1867),reveal evidence of spatial and temporal disjunction in the actual niches of both species.Eremias lineolata demonstrates a wide range of adaptations and,at the same time,has a greater need for winter precipitation and minimal temperature than E.scripta.Possible explanations for the thermal diversity of both species are provided.Thermal variables(monthly temperatures,monthly solar radiation,etc.)are traditionally important for ectotherm animals.Interestingly,as many as half of the key variables in both species are related to different aspects of environmental water balance(precipitation,air humidity,vapor pressure).There are several ways in which moisture may impact the lizard’s life cycle.Soil humidity is related to soil temperature and may be important during winter hibernation.In summer,soil humidity may support successful embryogenesis.Precipitation during the warm months is a key factor in maintaining the moisture content of the soil.In winter,snow cover provides a better thermal balance of the soil’s top layers where winter shelters are housed.Ecological niche modeling(ENM)is an interdisciplinary approach combining the geographical,climatic,ecological,and biological aspects of the wellbeing of species.This interdisciplinary approach lifts biological studies onto a new,integrative level,providing a comprehensive view on species biology and answering the questions that might not be answered if the traditional methods for studying animals were used alone.
基金supported by Three-Year Initiative Plan for Strengthening Public Health System Construction in Shanghai(2023-2025)Key Discipline Project(No.GWVI-11.1-12).
文摘To the Editor:We read with interest the article by Wang et al.,titled"Modeling the spread risk of dengue vector Aedes albopictus caused by environmental factors in Shanghai,China"[1].The use of ensemble ecological niche models to map Aedes albopictus distribution in urban Shanghai is both timely and methodologically sound.The identified drivers-vegetation index,temperature,and proximity to water-are well-known contributors to vector proliferation.However,one dimension remains notably underrepresented:human behavioral factors.
基金supported by the Central Asia Drug Discovery and Development Centre of Chinese Academy of Sciences(180GJHZ2024036MI)National Natural Science Foundation of China(32070433,32470466,31672270,31872959)+2 种基金Third Xinjiang Scientific Expedition Program(2021xjkk0600)Special Exchange Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciencessponsored by the ANSO Scholarship for Young Talents
文摘Comprehensive phylogeographic insights require the integration of evidence across diverse taxa,ecosystems,and geographical regions.However,our understanding of the arid biota of the vast Asian drylands remains limited.Accordingly,this study combined phylogeographic analyses with ecological niche modeling to investigate patterns of diversification and demography of the Central Asian racerunner(Eremias vermiculata),a widespread lizard inhabiting arid eastern-Central Asia(AECA).Mitochondrial DNA(mtDNA)sequences were obtained from 876 individuals across 113 localities,while three nuclear genes-CGNL1,MAP1A,andβ-fibint7-were sequenced from 204,170,and 138 individuals,respectively.Analyses identified four distinct mtDNA lineages corresponding to specific geographic subregions within the AECA,reflecting the topographic and ecological heterogeneity of the region.The detection of mito-nuclear discordance indicated the presence of complex evolutionary dynamics.Divergence dating placed the initial lineage splits at approximately 1.18 million years ago,coinciding with major tectonic activity and climatic aridification that likely promoted allopatric divergence.In particular,lineage diversification within the Tarim Basin suggests that recent environmental shifts may have contributed to genetic divergence.Demographic reconstructions revealed signatures of population expansion or range shifts across all lineages during the Last Glacial Maximum,signifying the combined influence of the unique topography and climate dynamics of the AECA on diversification and demographic change.These results highlight the need for fine-scale genomic investigations to clarify the mechanisms underlying mito-nuclear discordance and local adaptation.Such efforts are essential for advancing understanding of how genetic diversity in dryland taxa responds to environmental change,providing insights into the evolutionary adaptability of species in dynamic landscapes.
文摘Climate change is ranked as one of the most severe threats to global biodiversity. This global phenomenon is particularly true for reptiles whose biology and ecology are closely linked to climate. In this study, we used over 1,300 independent occurrence points and different climate change emission scenarios to evaluate the potential risk of changing climatic conditions on the current and future potential distribution of a rock-dwelling lizard; the velvet gecko. Furthermore, we investigated if the current extent of protected area networks in Australia captures the full range distribution of this species currently and in the future. Our results show that climate change projections for the year 2075 have the potential to alter the distribution of the velvet gecko in southeastern Australia. Specifically, climate change may favor the range expansion of this species to encompass more suitable habitats. The trend of range expansion was qualitatively similar across the different cli- mate change scenarios used. Additionally, we observed that the current network of protected areas in southeast Australia does not fully account for the full range distribution of this species currently and in the future. Ongoing climate change may profoundly affect the potential range distribution of the velvet gecko population. Therefore, the restricted habitat of the velvet geckos should be the focus of intensive pre-emptive management efforts. This management prioritization should be extended to encompass the increases in suitable habitats observed in this study in order to maximize the microhabitats available for the survival of this species.
