The ability to predict the future behavior of solar activity has become extremely import due to its effect on the environment near the Earth. Predictions of both the amplitude and timing of the next solar cycle will a...The ability to predict the future behavior of solar activity has become extremely import due to its effect on the environment near the Earth. Predictions of both the amplitude and timing of the next solar cycle will assist in estimating the various consequences of space weather. The level of solar activity is usually expressed by in- ternational sunspot number （Rz）. Several prediction techniques have been applied and have achieved varying degrees of success in the domain of solar activity prediction. We predict a solar index （Rz） in solar cycle 24 by using a neural network method. The neural network technique is used to analyze the time series of solar activity. According to our predictions of yearly sunspot number, the maximum of cycle 24 will occur in the year 2013 and will have an annual mean sunspot number of 65. Finally, we discuss our results in order to compare them with other suggested predictions.展开更多
A significant demand rises for energy-efficient deep neural networks to support power-limited embedding devices with successful deep learning applications in IoT and edge computing fields.An accurate energy prediction...A significant demand rises for energy-efficient deep neural networks to support power-limited embedding devices with successful deep learning applications in IoT and edge computing fields.An accurate energy prediction approach is critical to provide measurement and lead optimization direction.However,the current energy prediction approaches lack accuracy and generalization ability due to the lack of research on the neural network structure and the excessive reliance on customized training dataset.This paper presents a novel energy prediction model,NeurstrucEnergy.NeurstrucEnergy treats neural networks as directed graphs and applies a bi-directional graph neural network training on a randomly generated dataset to extract structural features for energy prediction.NeurstrucEnergy has advantages over linear approaches because the bi-directional graph neural network collects structural features from each layer's parents and children.Experimental results show that NeurstrucEnergy establishes state-of-the-art results with mean absolute percentage error of 2.60%.We also evaluate NeurstrucEnergy in a randomly generated dataset,achieving the mean absolute percentage error of 4.83%over 10 typical convolutional neural networks in recent years and 7 efficient convolutional neural networks created by neural architecture search.Our code is available at https://github.com/NEUSoftGreenAI/NeurstrucEnergy.git.展开更多
In conventional chromite beneficiation plant, huge quantity of chromite is used to loss in the form of tailing. For recovery these valuable mineral, a gravity concentrator viz. wet shaking table was used.Optimisation ...In conventional chromite beneficiation plant, huge quantity of chromite is used to loss in the form of tailing. For recovery these valuable mineral, a gravity concentrator viz. wet shaking table was used.Optimisation along with performance prediction of the unit operation is necessary for efficient recovery.So, in this present study, an artificial neural network(ANN) modeling approach was attempted for predicting the performance of wet shaking table in terms of grade(%) and recovery(%). A three layer feed forward neural network(3:3–11–2:2) was developed by varying the major operating parameters such as wash water flow rate(L/min), deck tilt angle(degree) and slurry feed rate(L/h). The predicted value obtained by the neural network model shows excellent agreement with the experimental values.展开更多
Phase pure ZrB2-SiC composite powders were prepared after 1 450℃/3 h via carbothermal reduction route,by using ZrSiO4,B2O3 and carbon as the raw materials.The influences of firing temperature as well as the type and ...Phase pure ZrB2-SiC composite powders were prepared after 1 450℃/3 h via carbothermal reduction route,by using ZrSiO4,B2O3 and carbon as the raw materials.The influences of firing temperature as well as the type and amount of additive on the phase composition of final products were detailedly investigated.The results indicated that the onset formation temperature of ZrB2-SiC was reduced to 1 400℃by the present conditions,and oxide additive（including CoSO4·7H2O,Y2O3 and TiO2）was effective in enhancing the decomposition of raw ZrSiO4,therefore accelerating the synthesis of ZrB2-SiC.Moreover,microstructural observation showed that the as-prepared ZrB2 and SiC respectively had well-defined hexagonal columnar and fibrous morphology.Furthermore,the methodology of back-propagation artificial neural networks（BP-ANNs）was adopted to establish a model for predicting the reaction extent（e g,the content of ZrB2-SiC in final product）in terms of various processing conditions.The results predicted by the as-established BP-ANNs model matched well with that of testing experiment（with a mean square error in 10^（-3） degree）,verifying good effectiveness of the proposed strategy.展开更多
BP neural networks is used to mid-term earthquake prediction in this paper. Some usual prediction parameters of seismology are used as the import units of neural networks. And the export units of neural networks is ca...BP neural networks is used to mid-term earthquake prediction in this paper. Some usual prediction parameters of seismology are used as the import units of neural networks. And the export units of neural networks is called as the character parameter W_0 describing enhancement of seismicity. We applied this method to space scanning of North China. The result shows that the mid-term anomalous zone of W_0-value usually appeared obviously around the future epicenter 1~3 years before earthquake. It is effective to mid-term prediction.展开更多
:Machine Learning(ML)algorithms have been widely used for financial time series prediction and trading through bots.In this work,we propose a Predictive Error Compensated Wavelet Neural Network(PEC-WNN)ML model that i...:Machine Learning(ML)algorithms have been widely used for financial time series prediction and trading through bots.In this work,we propose a Predictive Error Compensated Wavelet Neural Network(PEC-WNN)ML model that improves the prediction of next day closing prices.In the proposed model we use multiple neural networks where the first one uses the closing stock prices from multiple-scale time-domain inputs.An additional network is used for error estimation to compensate and reduce the prediction error of the main network instead of using recurrence.The performance of the proposed model is evaluated using six different stock data samples in the New York stock exchange.The results have demonstrated significant improvement in forecasting accuracy in all cases when the second network is used in accordance with the first one by adding the outputs.The RMSE error is 33%improved when the proposed PEC-WNN model is used compared to the Long ShortTerm Memory(LSTM)model.Furthermore,through the analysis of training mechanisms,we found that using the updated training the performance of the proposed model is improved.The contribution of this study is the applicability of simultaneously different time frames as inputs.Cascading the predictive error compensation not only reduces the error rate but also helps in avoiding overfitting problems.展开更多
There are many factors to influence stock prices indeed. The research method combining models and examples is applied to study how the factors affect stock prices here. Firstly, the principal component analysis is use...There are many factors to influence stock prices indeed. The research method combining models and examples is applied to study how the factors affect stock prices here. Firstly, the principal component analysis is used to deal with a set of variables as the input of a BP Neural Network. Therefore, not only is the number of variables less, but also most of the information of original variables is kept. Then, the BP Neural Network is established to analyze and predict stock prices. Finally, the analysis of Chinese stock market illustrates that the method predicting stock prices is satisfying and feasible.展开更多
Back propagation is employed to forecast the current of a storm with various characteristics of storm surge; the technique is thus important in disaster forecasting. One of the most fuzzy types of information in the p...Back propagation is employed to forecast the current of a storm with various characteristics of storm surge; the technique is thus important in disaster forecasting. One of the most fuzzy types of information in the prediction of geological calamity is handled employing the information diffusion method. First, a single-step prediction model and neural network prediction model are employed to collect influential information used to predict the extreme tide level. Second, information is obtained using the information diffusion method, which improves the precision of risk recognition when there is insufficient information. Experiments demonstrate that the method proposed in this paper is simple and effective and provides better forecast results than other methods. Future work will focus on a more precise forecast model.展开更多
Today flotation column has become an acceptable means of froth flotation for a fairly broad range of applications, in particular the cleaning of sulfides. Even after having been used for several years in mineral proce...Today flotation column has become an acceptable means of froth flotation for a fairly broad range of applications, in particular the cleaning of sulfides. Even after having been used for several years in mineral processing plants, the full potential of the flotation column process is still not fully exploited. There is no prediction of process performance for the complete use of available control capabilities. The on-line estimation of grade usually requires a significant amount of work in maintenance and calibration of on-stream analyzers, in order to maintain good accuracy and high availability. These difficulties and the high cost of investment and maintenance of these devices have encouraged the approach of prediction of metal grade and recovery. In this paper, a new approach has been proposed for metallurgical performance prediction in flotation columns using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Despite of the wide range of applications and flexibility of NNs, there is still no general framework or procedure through which the appropriate network for a specific task can be designed. Design and structural optimization of NNs is still strongly dependent upon the designer's experience. To mitigate this problem, a new method for the auto-design of NNs was used, based on Genetic Algorithm (GA). The new proposed method was evaluated by a case study in pilot plant flotation column at Sarcheshmeh copper plant. The chemical reagents dosage, froth height, air, wash water flow rates, gas holdup, Cu grade in the rougher feed, flotation column feed, column tail and final concentrate streams were used to the simulation by GANN. In this work, multi-layer NNs with Back Propagation (BP) algorithm with 8-17-10-2 and 8- 13-6-2 arrangements have been applied to predict the Cu and Mo grades and recoveries, respectively. The correlation coefficient (R) values for the testing sets for Cu and Mo grades were 0.93, 0.94 and for their recoveries were 0.93, 0.92, respectively. The results discussed in this paper indicate that the proposed model can be used to predict the Cu and Mo grades and recoveries with a reasonable error.展开更多
In industrial drives, electric motors are extensively utilized to impart motion control and induction motors are the most familiar drive at present due to its extensive performance characteristic similar with that of ...In industrial drives, electric motors are extensively utilized to impart motion control and induction motors are the most familiar drive at present due to its extensive performance characteristic similar with that of DC drives. Precise control of drives is the main attribute in industries to optimize the performance and to increase its production rate. In motion control, the major considerations are the torque and speed ripples. Design of controllers has become increasingly complex to such systems for better management of energy and raw materials to attain optimal performance. Meager parameter appraisal results are unsuitable, leading to unstable operation. The rapid intensification of digital computer revolutionizes to practice precise control and allows implementation of advanced control strategy to extremely multifaceted systems. To solve complex control problems, model predictive control is an authoritative scheme, which exploits an explicit model of the process to be controlled. This paper presents a predictive control strategy by a neural network predictive controller based single phase induction motor drive to minimize the speed and torque ripples. The proposed method exhibits better performance than the conventional controller and validity of the proposed method is verified by the simulation results using MATLAB software.展开更多
A laboratory leaching experiment with samples of different grades was carried out, and an analytical method of concentration of leaching solution was put forward. For each sample, respectively, by applying phase space...A laboratory leaching experiment with samples of different grades was carried out, and an analytical method of concentration of leaching solution was put forward. For each sample, respectively, by applying phase space reconstruction for time series of monitoring data, the saturated embedding dimension and the correlation dimension were obtained, and the evolution laws between neighboring points in the reconstructed phase space were revealed. With BP neural network, a prediction model of concentration of leaching solution was set up and the maximum error of which was less than 2%. The results show that there exist chaotic characteristics in leaching system, and samples of different grades have different nonlinear dynamic features; the higher the grade of sample, the smaller the correlation dimension; furthermore, the maximum Lyapunov index, energy dissipation and chaotic extent of the leaching system increase with grade of the sample; by phase space reconstruction, the subtle change features of concentration of leaching solution can be magnified and the inherent laws can be fully demonstrated. According to the laws, a prediction model of leaching cycle period has been established to provide a theoretical foundation for solution mining.展开更多
Of growing amount of food waste, the integrated food waste and waste water treatment was regarded as one of the efficient modeling method. However, the load of food waste to the conventional waste treatment process mi...Of growing amount of food waste, the integrated food waste and waste water treatment was regarded as one of the efficient modeling method. However, the load of food waste to the conventional waste treatment process might lead to the high concentration of total nitrogen（T-N） impact on the effluent water quality. The objective of this study is to establish two machine learning models-artificial neural networks（ANNs） and support vector machines（SVMs）, in order to predict 1-day interval T-N concentration of effluent from a wastewater treatment plant in Ulsan, Korea. Daily water quality data and meteorological data were used and the performance of both models was evaluated in terms of the coefficient of determination（R^2）, Nash-Sutcliff efficiency（NSE）, relative efficiency criteria（d rel）. Additionally, Latin-Hypercube one-factor-at-a-time（LH-OAT） and a pattern search algorithm were applied to sensitivity analysis and model parameter optimization, respectively. Results showed that both models could be effectively applied to the 1-day interval prediction of T-N concentration of effluent. SVM model showed a higher prediction accuracy in the training stage and similar result in the validation stage.However, the sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the ANN model was a superior model for 1-day interval T-N concentration prediction in terms of the cause-and-effect relationship between T-N concentration and modeling input values to integrated food waste and waste water treatment. This study suggested the efficient and robust nonlinear time-series modeling method for an early prediction of the water quality of integrated food waste and waste water treatment process.展开更多
Pulsed TIG welding–brazing process was applied to join aluminum with stainless steel dissimilar metals. Major parameters that affect the joint property significantly were identified as pulsed peak current, base curre...Pulsed TIG welding–brazing process was applied to join aluminum with stainless steel dissimilar metals. Major parameters that affect the joint property significantly were identified as pulsed peak current, base current, pulse on time,and frequency by pre-experiments. A sample was established according to central composite design. Based on the sample,response surface methodology（RSM） and artificial neural networks（ANN） were employed to predict the tensile strength of the joints separately. With RSM, a significant and rational mathematical model was established to predict the joint strength.With ANN, a modified back-propagation algorithm consisting of one input layer with four neurons, one hidden layer with eight neurons, and one output layer with one neuron was trained for predicting the strength. Compared with RSM, average relative prediction error of ANN was ／10% and it obtained more stable and precise results.展开更多
Previous studies revealed that the error of pole coordinate prediction will significantly increase for a prediction period longer than 100 days, and this is mainly caused by short period oscillations. Empirical mode d...Previous studies revealed that the error of pole coordinate prediction will significantly increase for a prediction period longer than 100 days, and this is mainly caused by short period oscillations. Empirical mode decomposition （EMD）, which is increasingly popular and has advantages over classical wavelet decomposition, can be used to remove short period variations from observed time series of pole co- ordinates. A hybrid model combing EMD and extreme learning machine （ELM）, where high frequency signals are removed and processed time series is then modeled and predicted, is summarized in this paper. The prediction performance of the hybrid model is compared with that of the ELM-only method created from original time series. The results show that the proposed hybrid model outperforms the pure ELM method for both short-term and long-term prediction of pole coordinates. The improvement of prediction accuracy up to 360 days in the future is found to be 24.91% and 26.79% on average in terms of mean absolute error （MAE） for the xp and yp components of pole coordinates, respectively.展开更多
After the consideration of the nonlinear nature changes of monsoon index,and the subjective determination of network structure in traditional artificial neural network prediction modeling,monthly and seasonal monsoon ...After the consideration of the nonlinear nature changes of monsoon index,and the subjective determination of network structure in traditional artificial neural network prediction modeling,monthly and seasonal monsoon intensity index prediction is studied in this paper by using nonlinear genetic neural network ensemble prediction（GNNEP）modeling.It differs from traditional prediction modeling in the following aspects： （1）Input factors of the GNNEP model of monsoon index were selected from a large quantity of preceding period high correlation factors,such as monthly sea temperature fields,monthly 500-hPa air temperature fields,monthly 200-hPa geopotential height fields,etc.,and they were also highly information-condensed and system dimensionality-reduced by using the empirical orthogonal function（EOF）method,which effectively condensed the useful information of predictors and therefore controlled the size of network structure of the GNNEP model.（2）In the input design of the GNNEP model,a mean generating function（MGF）series of predictand（monsoon index）was added as an input factor;the contrast analysis of results of predic- tion experiments by a physical variable predictor-predictand MGF GNNEP model and a physical variable predictor GNNEP model shows that the incorporation of the periodical variation of predictand（monsoon index）is very effective in improving the prediction of monsoon index.（3）Different from the traditional neural network modeling,the GNNEP modeling is able to objectively determine the network structure of the GNNNEP model,and the model constructed has a better generalization capability.In the case of identical predictors,prediction modeling samples,and independent prediction samples,the prediction accuracy of our GNNEP model combined with the system dimensionality reduction technique of predictors is clearly higher than that of the traditional stepwise regression model using the traditional treatment technique of predictors,suggesting that the GNNEP model opens up a vast range of possibilities for operational weather prediction.展开更多
This paper presents a nonlinear model predictive control(NMPC) approach based on support vector machine(SVM) and genetic algorithm(GA) for multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO) nonlinear systems.Individual SVM is used ...This paper presents a nonlinear model predictive control(NMPC) approach based on support vector machine(SVM) and genetic algorithm(GA) for multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO) nonlinear systems.Individual SVM is used to approximate each output of the controlled plant Then the model is used in MPC control scheme to predict the outputs of the controlled plant.The optimal control sequence is calculated using GA with elite preserve strategy.Simulation results of a typical MIMO nonlinear system show that this method has a good ability of set points tracking and disturbance rejection.展开更多
This paper covers predicting high-resolution electricity peak demand features given lower-resolution data.This is a relevant setup as it answers whether limited higher-resolution monitoring helps to estimate future hi...This paper covers predicting high-resolution electricity peak demand features given lower-resolution data.This is a relevant setup as it answers whether limited higher-resolution monitoring helps to estimate future high-resolution peak loads when the high-resolution data is no longer available.That question is particularly interesting for network operators considering replacing high-resolution monitoring by predictive models due to economic considerations.We propose models to predict half-hourly minima and maxima of high-resolution(every minute)electricity load data while model inputs are of a lower resolution(30 min).We combine predictions of generalized additive models(GAM)and deep artificial neural networks(DNN),which are popular in load forecasting.We extensively analyze the prediction models,including the input parameters’importance,focusing on load,weather,and seasonal effects.The proposed method won a data competition organized by Western Power Distribution,a British distribution network operator.In addition,we provide a rigorous evaluation study that goes beyond the competition frame to analyze the models’robustness.The results show that the proposed methods are superior to the competition benchmark concerning the out-of-sample root mean squared error(RMSE).This holds regarding the competition month and the supplementary evaluation study,which covers an additional eleven months.Overall,our proposed model combination reduces the out-of-sample RMSE by 57.4%compared to the benchmark.展开更多
Transformer top oil temperature prediction is a research focal point in online monitoring of transformer operational status.Existing methods lack interpretability in feature selection and do not consider the temporal ...Transformer top oil temperature prediction is a research focal point in online monitoring of transformer operational status.Existing methods lack interpretability in feature selection and do not consider the temporal correlation of features.To address these issues,we provide a top oil temperature of electric transformers prediction method by using causal discovery and the Graph Neural Network(GNN)-Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)model in this paper.To conduct feature selection,we use causal discovery to reduce feature dimensionality.Then,construct causal graph data based on the causal relationship matrix.Finally,spatiotemporal features are extracted by the GNN-LSTM model for oil temperature prediction.Experimental results demonstrate that this method can scientifically carry out feature selection,ensuring prediction accuracy and result robustness.展开更多
文摘The ability to predict the future behavior of solar activity has become extremely import due to its effect on the environment near the Earth. Predictions of both the amplitude and timing of the next solar cycle will assist in estimating the various consequences of space weather. The level of solar activity is usually expressed by in- ternational sunspot number （Rz）. Several prediction techniques have been applied and have achieved varying degrees of success in the domain of solar activity prediction. We predict a solar index （Rz） in solar cycle 24 by using a neural network method. The neural network technique is used to analyze the time series of solar activity. According to our predictions of yearly sunspot number, the maximum of cycle 24 will occur in the year 2013 and will have an annual mean sunspot number of 65. Finally, we discuss our results in order to compare them with other suggested predictions.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Liaoning Province(2020-BS-054)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(N2017005)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(62162050).
文摘A significant demand rises for energy-efficient deep neural networks to support power-limited embedding devices with successful deep learning applications in IoT and edge computing fields.An accurate energy prediction approach is critical to provide measurement and lead optimization direction.However,the current energy prediction approaches lack accuracy and generalization ability due to the lack of research on the neural network structure and the excessive reliance on customized training dataset.This paper presents a novel energy prediction model,NeurstrucEnergy.NeurstrucEnergy treats neural networks as directed graphs and applies a bi-directional graph neural network training on a randomly generated dataset to extract structural features for energy prediction.NeurstrucEnergy has advantages over linear approaches because the bi-directional graph neural network collects structural features from each layer's parents and children.Experimental results show that NeurstrucEnergy establishes state-of-the-art results with mean absolute percentage error of 2.60%.We also evaluate NeurstrucEnergy in a randomly generated dataset,achieving the mean absolute percentage error of 4.83%over 10 typical convolutional neural networks in recent years and 7 efficient convolutional neural networks created by neural architecture search.Our code is available at https://github.com/NEUSoftGreenAI/NeurstrucEnergy.git.
文摘In conventional chromite beneficiation plant, huge quantity of chromite is used to loss in the form of tailing. For recovery these valuable mineral, a gravity concentrator viz. wet shaking table was used.Optimisation along with performance prediction of the unit operation is necessary for efficient recovery.So, in this present study, an artificial neural network(ANN) modeling approach was attempted for predicting the performance of wet shaking table in terms of grade(%) and recovery(%). A three layer feed forward neural network(3:3–11–2:2) was developed by varying the major operating parameters such as wash water flow rate(L/min), deck tilt angle(degree) and slurry feed rate(L/h). The predicted value obtained by the neural network model shows excellent agreement with the experimental values.
基金Funded by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.51502212,51672194 and 51472184)Hubei Province Natural Science Foundation of China(No.2018CFB760)+1 种基金Program for Innovative Teams of Outstanding Young and Middle-aged Researchers in the Higher Education Institutions of Hubei Province(No.T201602)Key Program of Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province(No.2017CFA004)
文摘Phase pure ZrB2-SiC composite powders were prepared after 1 450℃/3 h via carbothermal reduction route,by using ZrSiO4,B2O3 and carbon as the raw materials.The influences of firing temperature as well as the type and amount of additive on the phase composition of final products were detailedly investigated.The results indicated that the onset formation temperature of ZrB2-SiC was reduced to 1 400℃by the present conditions,and oxide additive（including CoSO4·7H2O,Y2O3 and TiO2）was effective in enhancing the decomposition of raw ZrSiO4,therefore accelerating the synthesis of ZrB2-SiC.Moreover,microstructural observation showed that the as-prepared ZrB2 and SiC respectively had well-defined hexagonal columnar and fibrous morphology.Furthermore,the methodology of back-propagation artificial neural networks（BP-ANNs）was adopted to establish a model for predicting the reaction extent（e g,the content of ZrB2-SiC in final product）in terms of various processing conditions.The results predicted by the as-established BP-ANNs model matched well with that of testing experiment（with a mean square error in 10^（-3） degree）,verifying good effectiveness of the proposed strategy.
文摘BP neural networks is used to mid-term earthquake prediction in this paper. Some usual prediction parameters of seismology are used as the import units of neural networks. And the export units of neural networks is called as the character parameter W_0 describing enhancement of seismicity. We applied this method to space scanning of North China. The result shows that the mid-term anomalous zone of W_0-value usually appeared obviously around the future epicenter 1~3 years before earthquake. It is effective to mid-term prediction.
基金This study is based on the research project“Development of Cyberdroid based on Cognitive Intelligent system applications”(2019–2020)funded by Crypttech company(https://www.crypttech.com/en/)within the contract by ITUNOVA,Istanbul Technical University Technology Transfer Office.
文摘:Machine Learning(ML)algorithms have been widely used for financial time series prediction and trading through bots.In this work,we propose a Predictive Error Compensated Wavelet Neural Network(PEC-WNN)ML model that improves the prediction of next day closing prices.In the proposed model we use multiple neural networks where the first one uses the closing stock prices from multiple-scale time-domain inputs.An additional network is used for error estimation to compensate and reduce the prediction error of the main network instead of using recurrence.The performance of the proposed model is evaluated using six different stock data samples in the New York stock exchange.The results have demonstrated significant improvement in forecasting accuracy in all cases when the second network is used in accordance with the first one by adding the outputs.The RMSE error is 33%improved when the proposed PEC-WNN model is used compared to the Long ShortTerm Memory(LSTM)model.Furthermore,through the analysis of training mechanisms,we found that using the updated training the performance of the proposed model is improved.The contribution of this study is the applicability of simultaneously different time frames as inputs.Cascading the predictive error compensation not only reduces the error rate but also helps in avoiding overfitting problems.
文摘There are many factors to influence stock prices indeed. The research method combining models and examples is applied to study how the factors affect stock prices here. Firstly, the principal component analysis is used to deal with a set of variables as the input of a BP Neural Network. Therefore, not only is the number of variables less, but also most of the information of original variables is kept. Then, the BP Neural Network is established to analyze and predict stock prices. Finally, the analysis of Chinese stock market illustrates that the method predicting stock prices is satisfying and feasible.
基金Supported by the MISSION 908 (Nos. 908-02-03-07, SD-908-02-08)
文摘Back propagation is employed to forecast the current of a storm with various characteristics of storm surge; the technique is thus important in disaster forecasting. One of the most fuzzy types of information in the prediction of geological calamity is handled employing the information diffusion method. First, a single-step prediction model and neural network prediction model are employed to collect influential information used to predict the extreme tide level. Second, information is obtained using the information diffusion method, which improves the precision of risk recognition when there is insufficient information. Experiments demonstrate that the method proposed in this paper is simple and effective and provides better forecast results than other methods. Future work will focus on a more precise forecast model.
基金the support of the Department of Research and Development of Sarcheshmeh copper plants for this research
文摘Today flotation column has become an acceptable means of froth flotation for a fairly broad range of applications, in particular the cleaning of sulfides. Even after having been used for several years in mineral processing plants, the full potential of the flotation column process is still not fully exploited. There is no prediction of process performance for the complete use of available control capabilities. The on-line estimation of grade usually requires a significant amount of work in maintenance and calibration of on-stream analyzers, in order to maintain good accuracy and high availability. These difficulties and the high cost of investment and maintenance of these devices have encouraged the approach of prediction of metal grade and recovery. In this paper, a new approach has been proposed for metallurgical performance prediction in flotation columns using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Despite of the wide range of applications and flexibility of NNs, there is still no general framework or procedure through which the appropriate network for a specific task can be designed. Design and structural optimization of NNs is still strongly dependent upon the designer's experience. To mitigate this problem, a new method for the auto-design of NNs was used, based on Genetic Algorithm (GA). The new proposed method was evaluated by a case study in pilot plant flotation column at Sarcheshmeh copper plant. The chemical reagents dosage, froth height, air, wash water flow rates, gas holdup, Cu grade in the rougher feed, flotation column feed, column tail and final concentrate streams were used to the simulation by GANN. In this work, multi-layer NNs with Back Propagation (BP) algorithm with 8-17-10-2 and 8- 13-6-2 arrangements have been applied to predict the Cu and Mo grades and recoveries, respectively. The correlation coefficient (R) values for the testing sets for Cu and Mo grades were 0.93, 0.94 and for their recoveries were 0.93, 0.92, respectively. The results discussed in this paper indicate that the proposed model can be used to predict the Cu and Mo grades and recoveries with a reasonable error.
文摘In industrial drives, electric motors are extensively utilized to impart motion control and induction motors are the most familiar drive at present due to its extensive performance characteristic similar with that of DC drives. Precise control of drives is the main attribute in industries to optimize the performance and to increase its production rate. In motion control, the major considerations are the torque and speed ripples. Design of controllers has become increasingly complex to such systems for better management of energy and raw materials to attain optimal performance. Meager parameter appraisal results are unsuitable, leading to unstable operation. The rapid intensification of digital computer revolutionizes to practice precise control and allows implementation of advanced control strategy to extremely multifaceted systems. To solve complex control problems, model predictive control is an authoritative scheme, which exploits an explicit model of the process to be controlled. This paper presents a predictive control strategy by a neural network predictive controller based single phase induction motor drive to minimize the speed and torque ripples. The proposed method exhibits better performance than the conventional controller and validity of the proposed method is verified by the simulation results using MATLAB software.
基金Project(51374035)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2012BAB08B02)supported by the National“Twelfth Five”Science and Technology,ChinaProject(NCET-13-0669)supported by New Century Excellent Talents in University of Ministry of Education of China
文摘A laboratory leaching experiment with samples of different grades was carried out, and an analytical method of concentration of leaching solution was put forward. For each sample, respectively, by applying phase space reconstruction for time series of monitoring data, the saturated embedding dimension and the correlation dimension were obtained, and the evolution laws between neighboring points in the reconstructed phase space were revealed. With BP neural network, a prediction model of concentration of leaching solution was set up and the maximum error of which was less than 2%. The results show that there exist chaotic characteristics in leaching system, and samples of different grades have different nonlinear dynamic features; the higher the grade of sample, the smaller the correlation dimension; furthermore, the maximum Lyapunov index, energy dissipation and chaotic extent of the leaching system increase with grade of the sample; by phase space reconstruction, the subtle change features of concentration of leaching solution can be magnified and the inherent laws can be fully demonstrated. According to the laws, a prediction model of leaching cycle period has been established to provide a theoretical foundation for solution mining.
基金supported by a grant (12-TI-C04) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government
文摘Of growing amount of food waste, the integrated food waste and waste water treatment was regarded as one of the efficient modeling method. However, the load of food waste to the conventional waste treatment process might lead to the high concentration of total nitrogen（T-N） impact on the effluent water quality. The objective of this study is to establish two machine learning models-artificial neural networks（ANNs） and support vector machines（SVMs）, in order to predict 1-day interval T-N concentration of effluent from a wastewater treatment plant in Ulsan, Korea. Daily water quality data and meteorological data were used and the performance of both models was evaluated in terms of the coefficient of determination（R^2）, Nash-Sutcliff efficiency（NSE）, relative efficiency criteria（d rel）. Additionally, Latin-Hypercube one-factor-at-a-time（LH-OAT） and a pattern search algorithm were applied to sensitivity analysis and model parameter optimization, respectively. Results showed that both models could be effectively applied to the 1-day interval prediction of T-N concentration of effluent. SVM model showed a higher prediction accuracy in the training stage and similar result in the validation stage.However, the sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the ANN model was a superior model for 1-day interval T-N concentration prediction in terms of the cause-and-effect relationship between T-N concentration and modeling input values to integrated food waste and waste water treatment. This study suggested the efficient and robust nonlinear time-series modeling method for an early prediction of the water quality of integrated food waste and waste water treatment process.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 50874033)
文摘Pulsed TIG welding–brazing process was applied to join aluminum with stainless steel dissimilar metals. Major parameters that affect the joint property significantly were identified as pulsed peak current, base current, pulse on time,and frequency by pre-experiments. A sample was established according to central composite design. Based on the sample,response surface methodology（RSM） and artificial neural networks（ANN） were employed to predict the tensile strength of the joints separately. With RSM, a significant and rational mathematical model was established to predict the joint strength.With ANN, a modified back-propagation algorithm consisting of one input layer with four neurons, one hidden layer with eight neurons, and one output layer with one neuron was trained for predicting the strength. Compared with RSM, average relative prediction error of ANN was ／10% and it obtained more stable and precise results.
基金supported by Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.201491)“Light of West China” Program(201491)
文摘Previous studies revealed that the error of pole coordinate prediction will significantly increase for a prediction period longer than 100 days, and this is mainly caused by short period oscillations. Empirical mode decomposition （EMD）, which is increasingly popular and has advantages over classical wavelet decomposition, can be used to remove short period variations from observed time series of pole co- ordinates. A hybrid model combing EMD and extreme learning machine （ELM）, where high frequency signals are removed and processed time series is then modeled and predicted, is summarized in this paper. The prediction performance of the hybrid model is compared with that of the ELM-only method created from original time series. The results show that the proposed hybrid model outperforms the pure ELM method for both short-term and long-term prediction of pole coordinates. The improvement of prediction accuracy up to 360 days in the future is found to be 24.91% and 26.79% on average in terms of mean absolute error （MAE） for the xp and yp components of pole coordinates, respectively.
基金the New Technology Extension Project of China Meteorological Administration under Grant No.GMATG2008M49the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.40675023
文摘After the consideration of the nonlinear nature changes of monsoon index,and the subjective determination of network structure in traditional artificial neural network prediction modeling,monthly and seasonal monsoon intensity index prediction is studied in this paper by using nonlinear genetic neural network ensemble prediction（GNNEP）modeling.It differs from traditional prediction modeling in the following aspects： （1）Input factors of the GNNEP model of monsoon index were selected from a large quantity of preceding period high correlation factors,such as monthly sea temperature fields,monthly 500-hPa air temperature fields,monthly 200-hPa geopotential height fields,etc.,and they were also highly information-condensed and system dimensionality-reduced by using the empirical orthogonal function（EOF）method,which effectively condensed the useful information of predictors and therefore controlled the size of network structure of the GNNEP model.（2）In the input design of the GNNEP model,a mean generating function（MGF）series of predictand（monsoon index）was added as an input factor;the contrast analysis of results of predic- tion experiments by a physical variable predictor-predictand MGF GNNEP model and a physical variable predictor GNNEP model shows that the incorporation of the periodical variation of predictand（monsoon index）is very effective in improving the prediction of monsoon index.（3）Different from the traditional neural network modeling,the GNNEP modeling is able to objectively determine the network structure of the GNNNEP model,and the model constructed has a better generalization capability.In the case of identical predictors,prediction modeling samples,and independent prediction samples,the prediction accuracy of our GNNEP model combined with the system dimensionality reduction technique of predictors is clearly higher than that of the traditional stepwise regression model using the traditional treatment technique of predictors,suggesting that the GNNEP model opens up a vast range of possibilities for operational weather prediction.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(21076179)the National Basic Research Program of China(2012CB720500)
文摘This paper presents a nonlinear model predictive control(NMPC) approach based on support vector machine(SVM) and genetic algorithm(GA) for multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO) nonlinear systems.Individual SVM is used to approximate each output of the controlled plant Then the model is used in MPC control scheme to predict the outputs of the controlled plant.The optimal control sequence is calculated using GA with elite preserve strategy.Simulation results of a typical MIMO nonlinear system show that this method has a good ability of set points tracking and disturbance rejection.
文摘This paper covers predicting high-resolution electricity peak demand features given lower-resolution data.This is a relevant setup as it answers whether limited higher-resolution monitoring helps to estimate future high-resolution peak loads when the high-resolution data is no longer available.That question is particularly interesting for network operators considering replacing high-resolution monitoring by predictive models due to economic considerations.We propose models to predict half-hourly minima and maxima of high-resolution(every minute)electricity load data while model inputs are of a lower resolution(30 min).We combine predictions of generalized additive models(GAM)and deep artificial neural networks(DNN),which are popular in load forecasting.We extensively analyze the prediction models,including the input parameters’importance,focusing on load,weather,and seasonal effects.The proposed method won a data competition organized by Western Power Distribution,a British distribution network operator.In addition,we provide a rigorous evaluation study that goes beyond the competition frame to analyze the models’robustness.The results show that the proposed methods are superior to the competition benchmark concerning the out-of-sample root mean squared error(RMSE).This holds regarding the competition month and the supplementary evaluation study,which covers an additional eleven months.Overall,our proposed model combination reduces the out-of-sample RMSE by 57.4%compared to the benchmark.
文摘Transformer top oil temperature prediction is a research focal point in online monitoring of transformer operational status.Existing methods lack interpretability in feature selection and do not consider the temporal correlation of features.To address these issues,we provide a top oil temperature of electric transformers prediction method by using causal discovery and the Graph Neural Network(GNN)-Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)model in this paper.To conduct feature selection,we use causal discovery to reduce feature dimensionality.Then,construct causal graph data based on the causal relationship matrix.Finally,spatiotemporal features are extracted by the GNN-LSTM model for oil temperature prediction.Experimental results demonstrate that this method can scientifically carry out feature selection,ensuring prediction accuracy and result robustness.
