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The effect of a radial electric field on the neoclassical tearing mode driven losses of energetic trapped ions
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作者 Hugo E FERRARI Youwen SUN +2 位作者 Kaiyang HE Ricardo FARENGO Pablo L GARCÍA-MARTÍNEZ 《Plasma Science and Technology》 2025年第6期122-129,共8页
A rotating neoclassical tearing mode(NTM)can increase the trapped ion losses when the frequency of the NTM is close to the precessional frequency of the trapped particles.When an equilibrium electric field,produced by... A rotating neoclassical tearing mode(NTM)can increase the trapped ion losses when the frequency of the NTM is close to the precessional frequency of the trapped particles.When an equilibrium electric field,produced by the rotation of the plasma and the density gradient,is present,the average precessional frequency of the trapped ions changes and so does the mode frequency corresponding to the maximum loss rate.Our results show that when an electric field with a value of 11.2 kV/m at q=2 is included the maximum of the trapped ion losses increases from 27% to 30% based on EAST equilibrium. 展开更多
关键词 ion losses neoclassical tearing modes fast particles TOKAMAK plasma rotation radial electric field
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Effects of diamagnetic drift on nonlinear interaction between multi-helicity neoclassical tearing modes
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作者 王海源 姜帅 +3 位作者 刘桐 魏来 栾其斌 王正汹 《Chinese Physics B》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2024年第6期452-458,共7页
A numerical study of the diamagnetic drift effect on the nonlinear interaction between multi-helicity neoclassical tearing modes(NTMs) is carried out using a set of four-field equations including two-fluid effects.The... A numerical study of the diamagnetic drift effect on the nonlinear interaction between multi-helicity neoclassical tearing modes(NTMs) is carried out using a set of four-field equations including two-fluid effects.The results show that,in contrast to the single-fluid case,5/3 NTM cannot be completely suppressed by 3/2 NTM with diamagnetic drift flow.Both modes exhibit oscillation and coexist in the saturated phase.To better understand the effect of the diamagnetic drift flow on multiple-helicity NTMs,the influence of typical relevant parameters is investigated.It is found that the average saturated magnetic island width increases with increasing bootstrap current fraction f_(b) but decreases with the ion skin depth δ.In addition,as the ratio of parallel to perpendicular transport coefficients χ_(‖)/χ_(⊥) increases,the average saturated magnetic island widths of the 3/2 and 5/3 NTMs increase.The underlying mechanisms behind these observations are discussed in detail. 展开更多
关键词 TOKAMAK TWO-FLUID neoclassical tearing modes multi-helicity
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Effects of counter-current driven by electron cyclotron waves on neoclassical tearing mode suppression
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作者 高钦 郑平卫 《Chinese Physics B》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2024年第5期501-509,共9页
Through theoretical analysis,we construct a physical model that includes the influence of counter-external driven current opposite to the plasma current direction in the neoclassical tearing mode(NTM).The equation is ... Through theoretical analysis,we construct a physical model that includes the influence of counter-external driven current opposite to the plasma current direction in the neoclassical tearing mode(NTM).The equation is used with this model to obtain the modified Rutherford equation with co-current and counter-current contributions.Consistent with the reported experimental results,numerical simulations have shown that the localized counter external current can only partially suppress NTM when it is far from the resonant magnetic surface.Under some circumstances,the Ohkawa mechanism dominated current drive(OKCD)by electron cyclotron waves can concurrently create both co-current and counter-current.In this instance,the minimal electron cyclotron wave power that suppresses a particular NTM was calculated by the Rutherford equation.The result is marginally less than when taking co-current alone into consideration.As a result,to suppress NTM using OKCD,one only needs to align the co-current with a greater OKCD peak well with the resonant magnetic surface.The effect of its lower counter-current does not need to be considered because the location of the counter-current deviates greatly from the resonant magnetic surface. 展开更多
关键词 driven current neoclassical tearing mode modified Rutherford equation electron cyclotron waves
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Effect of Finite-Ion-Banana-Width on the Polarization Contribution to the Neoclassical Tearing Modes Evolution 被引量:1
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作者 曲洪鹏 彭晓东 +3 位作者 沈勇 王爱科 郝广周 胡世林 《Plasma Science and Technology》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2014年第12期1090-1095,共6页
In the previous analytical description of the neoclassical polarization current effect on the neoclassical tearing modes (NTMs), it is usually assumed that the magnetic island is much larger than the finite-ion-bana... In the previous analytical description of the neoclassical polarization current effect on the neoclassical tearing modes (NTMs), it is usually assumed that the magnetic island is much larger than the finite-ion-banana-width (FBW). This assumption is questionable when the experimentally observed seed island width of the NTMs is comparable to the FBW. We introduce a simple and direct theoretical method to investigate the FBW effect on the neoclassical polarization contribution to the NTM evolution in collisional plasmas. The results show that, the FBW effect can strongly modify the neoclassical polarization current profile near the island separatrix, and thus weaken its probably stabilizing effect on the NTMs. 展开更多
关键词 NTM neoclassical polarization current ion-banana-orbit-width magneticisland
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Effects of resonant magnetic perturbation on locked mode of neoclassical tearing modes 被引量:1
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作者 Weikang TANG Lai WEI +3 位作者 Zhenaxiona WANG Jialei WANG Tong LIU Shu ZHENG 《Plasma Science and Technology》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2019年第6期79-87,共9页
The effects of externally applied resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) on the locked mode of the neoclassical tearing mode (NTM) are numerically investigated by means of a set of reduced magnetohydrodynamic equations.... The effects of externally applied resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) on the locked mode of the neoclassical tearing mode (NTM) are numerically investigated by means of a set of reduced magnetohydrodynamic equations.It is found that,for a small bootstrap current fraction,three regimes,namely the slight suppression regime,the small locked island (SLI) regime and the big locked island (BLI) regime,are discovered with the increase of RMP strength.For a much higher bootstrap current fraction,however,a new oscillation regime appears instead of the SLI regime,although the other regimes still remain.The physical process in each regime is analyzed in detail based on the phase difference between the NTM and the RMP.Moreover,the critical values of the RMP in both SLI and BLI regimes are obtained,and their dependence on key plasma parameters is discussed as well. 展开更多
关键词 neoclassical TEARING MODE RESONANT MAGNETIC PERTURBATION locked MODE
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A brief review:effects of resonant magnetic perturbation on classical and neoclassical tearing modes in tokamaks 被引量:1
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作者 Zhengxiong WANG Weikang TANG Lai WEI 《Plasma Science and Technology》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2022年第3期1-13,共13页
This paper reviews the effects of resonant magnetic perturbation(RMP)on classical tearing modes(TMs)and neoclassical tearing modes(NTMs)from the theory,experimental discovery and numerical results with a focus on four... This paper reviews the effects of resonant magnetic perturbation(RMP)on classical tearing modes(TMs)and neoclassical tearing modes(NTMs)from the theory,experimental discovery and numerical results with a focus on four major aspects:(i)mode mitigation,where the TM/NTM is totally suppressed or partly mitigated by the use of RMP;(ii)mode penetration,which means a linearly stable TM/NTM triggered by the externally applied RMP;(iii)mode locking,namely an existing rotating magnetic island braked and finally stopped by the RMP;(iv)mode unlocking,as the name suggests,it is the reverse of the mode locking process.The key mechanism and physical picture of above phenomena are revealed and summarized. 展开更多
关键词 neoclassical tearing modes resonant magnetic perturbation mode locking
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New Version of IS-LM:Neoclassical Monetarism 被引量:1
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作者 Gürhan Uysal 《Economics World》 2019年第3期140-145,共6页
This study argues three policies for economies.The aim of those policies is to increase total demand by money supply.Global economy currently faces lack of money in markets and recession effect.First,neomerchantalism ... This study argues three policies for economies.The aim of those policies is to increase total demand by money supply.Global economy currently faces lack of money in markets and recession effect.First,neomerchantalism is to use national currency in bilateral trade.Second,limited money supply is to supply money to sub-regions of economy.Third,neoclassical monetary uses channels in monetary supply.Channels in NCM policy are financial banks and firms.Financial banks and firms distribute money into business markets.Global economies may apply propositions of NCM currently to refresh economies with money. 展开更多
关键词 neoclassical monetary central bank money supply neomerchantalism
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Suppression of Neoclassical Tearing Modes Towards Stationary High-Beta Plasmas in JT-60U
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作者 A.ISAYAMA 《Plasma Science and Technology》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2006年第1期36-40,共5页
Results from stabilization of neoclassical tearing modes (NTMs) in JT-60U are described. NTM stabilization and confinement improvement have been demonstrated by employing a real-time NTM stabilization system, where ... Results from stabilization of neoclassical tearing modes (NTMs) in JT-60U are described. NTM stabilization and confinement improvement have been demonstrated by employing a real-time NTM stabilization system, where the identification of the location of an NTM and the optimization of the injection angle of the electron cyclotron wave are performed in real time. Also, a high-beta plasma with the normalized beta of 3 has been sustained by suppressing NTM by applying the electron cyclotron current drive (ECCD) before the onset ('preemptive ECCD'). In addition, a simulation code for analysis of the NTM evolution has been developed by combining the modified Rutherford equation with the transport code TOPICS. It is found that the simulation well reproduces the NTM behavior in JT-60U. The simulation also shows that the ECCD width is also important for NTM stabilization, and that the EC wave power for complete stabilization can be reduced by narrowing the ECCD profile. 展开更多
关键词 neoclassical tearing mode electron cyclotron current drive TOKAMAK
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Stabilization of Neoclassical Tearing Modes by rf Current
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作者 Xiaojing Wang Xiaodong Zhang +4 位作者 Qingquan Yu Yang Zhang Sizheng Zhu Xiaoguang Wang Bin Wu 《World Journal of Engineering and Technology》 2017年第4期99-104,共6页
Neoclassical tearing mode (NTM) can degrade plasma confinement or even cause disruptions in existing tokamaks. Stabilization of the NTMs by radio frequency (rf) current is investigated by the modified Rutherford equat... Neoclassical tearing mode (NTM) can degrade plasma confinement or even cause disruptions in existing tokamaks. Stabilization of the NTMs by radio frequency (rf) current is investigated by the modified Rutherford equation (MRE) in this paper. In a range of parameters, the required rf current for mode stabilization is obtained, which is linearly proportional to the bootstrap current density for both modulated current drive (MCD) and non-modulated current drive (NMCD), linearly (quadratically) to the radial width of the rf current for MCD (NMCD), and quadratically to the radial deviation of the rf current from the rational surface for both MCD and NMCD. 展开更多
关键词 neoclassical TEARING Mode (NTM) Radio Frequency (RF) CURRENT Modified RUTHERFORD Equation (MRE)
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Neoclassical tearing mode stabilization by electron cyclotron current drive for HL-2M tokamak
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作者 Jing-Chun Li Jia-Qi Dong +1 位作者 Xiao-Quan Ji You-Jun Hu 《Chinese Physics B》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2021年第7期355-361,共7页
Investigation of neoclassical tearing mode and its suppression by electron cyclotron current drive(ECCD)has been carried out in HL-2 M tokamak.The current driving capability of the electron cyclotron wave is evaluated... Investigation of neoclassical tearing mode and its suppression by electron cyclotron current drive(ECCD)has been carried out in HL-2 M tokamak.The current driving capability of the electron cyclotron wave is evaluated.It is found that the deposition location can be effectively controlled by changing the poloidal angle.The validation of electron cyclotron wave heating and current driving has been demonstrated for the upper launcher port.We show that 3.0 MW and2.5 MW modulated ECCD can completely stabilize(2,1)and(3,2)NTMs,respectively.The non-modulated ECCD,radial misalignment as well as current profile broadening have deleterious effect on the NTM stabilization.The time required for suppression of(3,2)mode is shorter than that required for the suppression of(2,1)mode.Moreover,the time needed for complete stabilization at different initial island width has been quantitatively presented and analyzed. 展开更多
关键词 neoclassical tearing mode magnetic island electron cyclotron current drive numerical modelling
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Manu Smriti as the Protection of Female in Hindu Philosophy:In the Dimension of Structural-Functionalism
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作者 Shukra Raj Adhikari 《Journal of Philosophy Study》 2020年第11期706-712,共7页
In the evolutionary process of socio-cultural structure,various“memories”and codes have been created as a collection of interpretations,rules,and regulations made by various experts in social,cultural,political,and ... In the evolutionary process of socio-cultural structure,various“memories”and codes have been created as a collection of interpretations,rules,and regulations made by various experts in social,cultural,political,and religious leaders including kings,emperors,and sages.In these contexts,this article is focused to analyze the status,power,and authority of females in terms of the explanation of Manu Smriti in the structural-functional perspective.Mostly secondary and qualitative data have been used in this article.The data have been collected through the historical content analysis method.To obtain the objective,the facts have been collected from the verses of Manu Smriti(which are related to female issues)and historical interpretation of ancient society.Collected secondary data have been analyzed through the historical content analysis method.According to the structural-functional point of view,due to the socio-cultural environment of the time in which the laws and regulations related to women have to be made,these issues seem to be more relevant,such as the permission of men for functioning,child marriage,etc.Analyzing the issues from a patriarchal point of view,the law of the time was in favor of women’s inequality and exploitation of women.The theory of patriarchy mentions that women are oppressed,exploited,and subjugated by men in the patriarchal social structure.The facts of Manu Smriti,such as women as the gods,as an indicator of respect,as a symbol of the progress,etc.,are not congruent to the explanation of the theory of patriarchy. 展开更多
关键词 Manu Smriti PATRIARCHY PROTECTION structural-functionalism women
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NEOCLASSICAL TRANSPORT IN A TOKAMAK WITH ELECTRIC SHEAR
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作者 WANGZhong-tian GLeClair 《核聚变与等离子体物理》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2002年第4期215-220,共6页
Neoclassical transport theory for a tokamak in the presence of a large radial electric field with shear is developed using Hamiltonian formalism. Diffusion coefficients are derived in both the plateau and banana regim... Neoclassical transport theory for a tokamak in the presence of a large radial electric field with shear is developed using Hamiltonian formalism. Diffusion coefficients are derived in both the plateau and banana regimes where the squeezing factor in coefficients can greatly affect diffusion at the plasma edge. Rotation speeds are calculated in the scrapeoff region. They are in good agreement with the measurements on the TdeV tokamak. 展开更多
关键词 托卡马克装置 等离子体 聚变堆 电子输运
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Neoclassical Kinetic Theory for the Shaped Tokamaks
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作者 王中天 《Plasma Science and Technology》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2000年第6期505-508,共4页
Neoclassical transport for the shaped tokamak with X point is investigated using Hamiltonian formalism. For a set of Soloveev's configurations, the neoclassical diffusion coefficient is rigorously derived for the ... Neoclassical transport for the shaped tokamak with X point is investigated using Hamiltonian formalism. For a set of Soloveev's configurations, the neoclassical diffusion coefficient is rigorously derived for the plateau regime which is inversely proportional to the connection length. When an X point appears on plasma boundary, the diffusion coefficient is greatly reduced by a much longer connection length compared with a circular cross-section plasma. Since the formalism is not limited for aspect ratio, for A = 1.3, it may be valid in a very narrow range of collisionality, 0.8 < V*i < 1.0, at / o = 0.95. In the range of collisionality, the detrapping rate is very high. 展开更多
关键词 neoclassical Kinetic Theory for the Shaped Tokamaks
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托卡马克中新经典对流对钨杂质聚芯影响的模拟研究
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作者 骆雨辰 桑超峰 +8 位作者 王艺霖 吴亦晗 周庆瑞 李佳鲜 薛淼 薛雷 郑国尧 杜海龙 王德真 《物理学报》 北大核心 2025年第13期298-306,共9页
钨杂质聚芯控制对于托卡马克的稳态运行十分重要,本文主要采用杂质输运程序STRAHL模拟研究了新经典输运对钨杂质在芯部聚集的影响.针对HL-3装置未来采用钨偏滤器、在氩气注入放电情况开展研究,其中边缘和芯部背景等离子体参数分别由SOLP... 钨杂质聚芯控制对于托卡马克的稳态运行十分重要,本文主要采用杂质输运程序STRAHL模拟研究了新经典输运对钨杂质在芯部聚集的影响.针对HL-3装置未来采用钨偏滤器、在氩气注入放电情况开展研究,其中边缘和芯部背景等离子体参数分别由SOLPS-ITER及OMFIT模拟获得.边界区域的钨杂质输运使用IMPEDGE程序进行模拟,并同STRAHL的结果进行对比,以确保芯边杂质分布的一致性和模拟结果的准确性,从而得到钨杂质从边界区域至芯部的完整分布.在此基础上,分别模拟了有无新经典对流情况下钨杂质的输运.模拟结果表明,无新经典对流时,湍流输运主导杂质输运,其方向指向内,会导致杂质在芯部聚集.加入新经典对流后,其方向指向外,其在一定程度上抵消了向内的湍流对流,从而显著降低芯部钨杂质密度.其中区域ρ=0.72—0.90的新经典对流对芯部杂质密度下降起到更为重要的作用.进一步分析新经典对流各分量,研究表明Pfirsche-Schlüter(PS)分量主导新经典对流项,其主要是由离子温度梯度项驱动.因此,实验上可以通过加热等方式,增强离子温度梯度,抑制杂质聚芯. 展开更多
关键词 磁约束核聚变 新经典输运 钨杂质聚芯
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集体记忆、战略自主与东南亚国家的对冲延续——基于菲律宾、越南和印度尼西亚的比较分析 被引量:2
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作者 陈菲 杨季宁 《国际展望》 北大核心 2025年第1期152-175,181,182,共26页
对冲是东南亚国家在高度复杂且不确定的战略环境中平衡风险与机遇的战略手段。随着中国的进一步崛起和中美竞争的加剧,东南亚国家的战略环境逐渐由包容性转向约束性,其对冲空间正在缩小。然而,与结构现实主义的理论预设相悖,东南亚各国... 对冲是东南亚国家在高度复杂且不确定的战略环境中平衡风险与机遇的战略手段。随着中国的进一步崛起和中美竞争的加剧,东南亚国家的战略环境逐渐由包容性转向约束性,其对冲空间正在缩小。然而,与结构现实主义的理论预设相悖,东南亚各国在应对体系压力时的战略选择具有显著的差异性。从新古典现实主义视角来看,研究东南亚国家的对冲延续因果机制需将战略环境和国内政治特性相结合。通过比较分析菲律宾、越南和印尼这三个国家的国内政治特性和对冲战略的变化轨迹,可以验证:在国内政治层面,集体记忆和战略自主两个变量决定了东南亚国家对外来威胁的预期和对冲能力。这些国家对于中、美的威胁预期是否对称是它们采取对冲战略的直接动因,而对冲能力的强弱则支持或阻碍了对冲在实践层面的延续。研究提供的解释框架有助于中国更准确地研判东南亚国家的战略动向,推动双方良性互动。 展开更多
关键词 东南亚 对冲战略 新古典现实主义 集体记忆 战略自主
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锯齿振荡中新经典撕裂模种子磁岛触发的数值模拟
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作者 楚家璇 杨锦宏 +3 位作者 任珍珍 张培杰 肖政 汪卫华 《计算物理》 北大核心 2025年第4期416-424,共9页
利用三维环形非线性磁流体代码CLT,模拟分析锯齿振荡对m/n=2/1新经典撕裂模(NTM)种子磁岛的激发过程,分析有无自举电流时m/n=2/1磁岛受锯齿振荡的长期影响。结果表明:在锯齿崩塌发生之前,m/n=2/1磁扰动分量已经开始增长。当发生锯齿崩塌... 利用三维环形非线性磁流体代码CLT,模拟分析锯齿振荡对m/n=2/1新经典撕裂模(NTM)种子磁岛的激发过程,分析有无自举电流时m/n=2/1磁岛受锯齿振荡的长期影响。结果表明:在锯齿崩塌发生之前,m/n=2/1磁扰动分量已经开始增长。当发生锯齿崩塌时,m/n=2/1磁岛宽度增长速率增大并持续时间较长,这是由于锯齿崩塌导致m/n=2/1磁扰动径向外移所致;在锯齿振荡期间,无论是否有自举电流,m/n=2/1磁岛都能够增长。当有自举电流时,主要由新经典效应驱动m/n=2/1磁岛;当无自举电流时,锯齿和黏滞共同驱动m/n=2/1磁岛增长。 展开更多
关键词 托卡马克 锯齿振荡 新经典撕裂模 种子磁岛
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地区性两极格局中前沿支点国家的生存战略选择机制
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作者 秦立志 付腾浩 《东北亚论坛》 北大核心 2025年第2期22-44,127,共24页
在地区性两极格局中,一些中小国家具备特殊的战略价值,它们处于邻近大国实现自身防御或战略扩张的关键位置;同时又是较远大国实现战略威慑、政治渗透等战略目标的前沿支点。在既有研究中,对冲战略几乎已经成为中小国家面临两强对抗的主... 在地区性两极格局中,一些中小国家具备特殊的战略价值,它们处于邻近大国实现自身防御或战略扩张的关键位置;同时又是较远大国实现战略威慑、政治渗透等战略目标的前沿支点。在既有研究中,对冲战略几乎已经成为中小国家面临两强对抗的主要手段。但相关研究很大程度上无视了战略不确定性与决策过程复杂性的常识。对于中小国家而言,风险规避既不一定是理性选择的必然结果,也不一定是脱离困境的最佳手段。通过对变量机制的分析和案例过程的追踪,发现外部支持和决策环境紧迫性之间的变量作用能够对中小国家的行为模式做出初步解释。外部支持是影响中小国家选择示强或示弱战略的重要变量,在此基础上,决策环境的紧迫性又进一步发挥了调节作用,影响了国家在保守和激进之间的抉择。当前,一些地区体系的两极化与对抗性趋势愈发明显,对相关问题的探讨不仅能够识别大国竞争背景下的中小国家战略逻辑,还能为我国在相关地区安全局势的研判带来有益启发。 展开更多
关键词 两极格局 中间地带 中小国家 对冲战略 制衡 绥靖 新古典现实主义
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南岭民族走廊体育非遗活态传承与旅游融合发展模式研究
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作者 杨蕊 蔡艺 +1 位作者 余莉萍 边柯 《体育学刊》 北大核心 2025年第4期53-59,共7页
南岭民族走廊体育非遗与旅游融合是实现体育非遗在旅游领域创造性转化和创新性发展的具体实践。研究依据新古典“结构-功能”理论,对南岭民族走廊体育非遗与旅游融合发展模式进行分析。研究认为南岭民族走廊体育非遗与旅游融合模式分为... 南岭民族走廊体育非遗与旅游融合是实现体育非遗在旅游领域创造性转化和创新性发展的具体实践。研究依据新古典“结构-功能”理论,对南岭民族走廊体育非遗与旅游融合发展模式进行分析。研究认为南岭民族走廊体育非遗与旅游融合模式分为物质性结构融合模式,延伸两者物质空间,形成民族特色体育小镇、运动休闲特色小镇、体育文化园等场所,具有创新融合场域的功能;习俗性结构融合模式,生产体育非遗旅游赛事、表演等产品,具有创新产品形式与内容的功能;制度性结构融合模式,重新组合资源,形成体育节庆旅游品牌活动,具有文化传承与认同的功能。并基于体育非遗活态传承与旅游发展的代沟关系、地方民族与权威话语的失衡关系、传统与现代的联结问题,提出了激发文化共振,构建良性融合环境;建立共生机制,重塑融合关系;数字化赋能,弥合传统到现代融合过程等融合发展的路径。 展开更多
关键词 南岭民族走廊 体育非物质文化遗产 体旅融合 新古典“结构-功能”理论
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权力转移、报偿预期与攻防偏好
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作者 秦立志 方博一 《印度洋经济体研究》 2025年第1期45-77,153,154,共35页
国际体系的无政府状态与战略博弈的复杂性,让国家将生存视为首要战略利益,如何做出恰当军事战略反应,是安全战略的重要挑战。不同时代的武器技术变革的确会影响大国竞争的攻防平衡态势,但不应陷入技术决定论,因为攻防博弈的战略机理始... 国际体系的无政府状态与战略博弈的复杂性,让国家将生存视为首要战略利益,如何做出恰当军事战略反应,是安全战略的重要挑战。不同时代的武器技术变革的确会影响大国竞争的攻防平衡态势,但不应陷入技术决定论,因为攻防博弈的战略机理始终存在,技术变迁本身就是大国博弈的有机组成部分。一国军事战略与大战略的攻防偏好存在何种区别与联系?对这一问题的回答,可以通过优化新古典现实主义的战略选择理论,以时空维度下的权力转移趋势作为自变量,国家战略决策的报偿预期作为中介变量,攻防偏好战略的类型化则是因变量。权力转移趋势会对国家军事战略的最初偏好形成结构性压力,而领导人意象会强化、弱化或延续既有权力转移趋势的影响。短期军事胜利有时会带来长期的过度扩张惯性,需要进行审慎的战略选择以避免“进攻崇拜”带来的意图误判或螺旋升级引发的大国政治的悲剧。本研究试图弥合进攻性现实主义与防御性现实主义对攻防平衡的理论争议,强调战略偏好的动态性变化。对攻防平衡这一中层理论概念的史论结合,也有助于解析安全困境的缓和机制。 展开更多
关键词 权力转移 地缘政治 新古典现实主义 大国崛起
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菲律宾南海政策演变的理论阐释——兼论小马科斯政府南海政策及其演变发展
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作者 徐梦盈 《中国海洋大学学报(社会科学版)》 2025年第1期25-41,共17页
在中美南海博弈不断升温的背景下,厘清菲律宾南海政策演变存在何种运作逻辑成为一个兼具理论和现实意义的问题。在修正新古典现实主义理论的基础上,以美菲同盟与中国间海洋实力对比态势为前置变量,以菲律宾国家决策者对南海安全局势的... 在中美南海博弈不断升温的背景下,厘清菲律宾南海政策演变存在何种运作逻辑成为一个兼具理论和现实意义的问题。在修正新古典现实主义理论的基础上,以美菲同盟与中国间海洋实力对比态势为前置变量,以菲律宾国家决策者对南海安全局势的评估以及菲律宾获取美国战略援助的能力为单元层次自变量,构建解释菲律宾南海政策演变逻辑的跨层次分析框架。阿基诺三世政府和杜特尔特政府的菲律宾南海政策为这一理论框架提供了经验层面的证据。基于跨层次分析模型,预测小马科斯政府南海政策激进化的风险较高。对此,中国决策者可采取两种风险防范措施予以应对。 展开更多
关键词 新古典现实主义理论 菲律宾南海政策 美菲同盟 中菲南海争端 小马科斯政府
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