The static modeling and dynamic simulation are essential and critical processes in petroleum exploration and development. In this study, lithofacies models for Wabiskaw Member in Athabasca, Canada are generated by mul...The static modeling and dynamic simulation are essential and critical processes in petroleum exploration and development. In this study, lithofacies models for Wabiskaw Member in Athabasca, Canada are generated by multipoint statistics(MPS) and then compared with the models built by sequential indicator simulation(SIS). Three training images(Tls) are selected from modern depositional environments;the Orinoco River Delta estuary, Cobequid bay-Salmon River estuary, and Danube River delta environment. In order to validate lithofacies models, average and variance of similarity in lithofacies are calculated through random and zonal blind-well tests.In random six-blind-well test, similarity average of MPS models is higher than that of SIS model. The Salmon MPS model closely resembles facies pattern of Wabiskaw Member in subsurface. Zonal blind-well tests show that successful lithofacies modeling for transitional depositional setting requires additional or proper zonation information on horizontal variation, vertical proportion, and secondary data.As Wabiskaw Member is frontier oilsands lease, it is impossible to evaluate the economics from production data or dynamic simulation. In this study, a dynamic steam assisted gravity drainage(SAGD)performance indicator(SPIDER) on the basis of reservoir characteristics is calculated to build 3 D reservoir model for the evaluation of the SAGD feasibility in Wabiskaw Member. SPIDER depends on reservoir properties, economic limit of steam-oil ratio, and bitumen price. Reservoir properties like porosity,permeability, and water saturation are measured from 13 cores and calculated from 201 well-logs. Three dimensional volumes of reservoir properties are constructed mostly based on relationships among properties. Finally, net present value(NPV) volume can be built by equation relating NPV and SPIDER. The economic area exceeding criterion of US$ 10,000 is identified, and the ranges of reservoir properties are estimated. NPV-volume-generation workflow from reservoir parameter to static model provides costand time-effective method to evaluate the oilsands SAGD project.展开更多
This paper analyzes an open pit gold mine project based on the O'Hara cost model. Hypothetical data is proposed based on different authors that have studied open pit gold projects, and variations are proposed acco...This paper analyzes an open pit gold mine project based on the O'Hara cost model. Hypothetical data is proposed based on different authors that have studied open pit gold projects, and variations are proposed according to the probability distributions associated to key variables affecting the NPV, like production level, ore grade, price of ore, and others, so as to see what if, in a gold open pit mine project of 3000 metric tons per day of ore. Two case scenarios were analyzed to simulate the NPV, one where there is low certainty data available, and the other where the information available is of high certainty. Results based on genetic algorithm metaheuristic simulations, which combine basically Montecarlo simulations provided by the Palisade Risk software, the O'Hara cost model, net smelter return and financial analysis tools offered by Excel are reported, in order to determine to which variables of the project is more sensitive the NPV.展开更多
基金supported by the Energy Efficiency and Resources Program of the Korea Institute of Energy Technology Evaluation andPlanning(KETEP,Grant No.20132510100060)the Basic Research Program of Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources(KIGAM,GP2017-024)+2 种基金funded by the Ministry of ScienceICTFuture Planning of Korea
文摘The static modeling and dynamic simulation are essential and critical processes in petroleum exploration and development. In this study, lithofacies models for Wabiskaw Member in Athabasca, Canada are generated by multipoint statistics(MPS) and then compared with the models built by sequential indicator simulation(SIS). Three training images(Tls) are selected from modern depositional environments;the Orinoco River Delta estuary, Cobequid bay-Salmon River estuary, and Danube River delta environment. In order to validate lithofacies models, average and variance of similarity in lithofacies are calculated through random and zonal blind-well tests.In random six-blind-well test, similarity average of MPS models is higher than that of SIS model. The Salmon MPS model closely resembles facies pattern of Wabiskaw Member in subsurface. Zonal blind-well tests show that successful lithofacies modeling for transitional depositional setting requires additional or proper zonation information on horizontal variation, vertical proportion, and secondary data.As Wabiskaw Member is frontier oilsands lease, it is impossible to evaluate the economics from production data or dynamic simulation. In this study, a dynamic steam assisted gravity drainage(SAGD)performance indicator(SPIDER) on the basis of reservoir characteristics is calculated to build 3 D reservoir model for the evaluation of the SAGD feasibility in Wabiskaw Member. SPIDER depends on reservoir properties, economic limit of steam-oil ratio, and bitumen price. Reservoir properties like porosity,permeability, and water saturation are measured from 13 cores and calculated from 201 well-logs. Three dimensional volumes of reservoir properties are constructed mostly based on relationships among properties. Finally, net present value(NPV) volume can be built by equation relating NPV and SPIDER. The economic area exceeding criterion of US$ 10,000 is identified, and the ranges of reservoir properties are estimated. NPV-volume-generation workflow from reservoir parameter to static model provides costand time-effective method to evaluate the oilsands SAGD project.
基金the Mine Planning Research Group–GIPLAMIN-of the Mines Faculty,National University of Colombia
文摘This paper analyzes an open pit gold mine project based on the O'Hara cost model. Hypothetical data is proposed based on different authors that have studied open pit gold projects, and variations are proposed according to the probability distributions associated to key variables affecting the NPV, like production level, ore grade, price of ore, and others, so as to see what if, in a gold open pit mine project of 3000 metric tons per day of ore. Two case scenarios were analyzed to simulate the NPV, one where there is low certainty data available, and the other where the information available is of high certainty. Results based on genetic algorithm metaheuristic simulations, which combine basically Montecarlo simulations provided by the Palisade Risk software, the O'Hara cost model, net smelter return and financial analysis tools offered by Excel are reported, in order to determine to which variables of the project is more sensitive the NPV.
