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Climatic Factors for Limiting Northward Distribution of Eight Temperate Tree Species in Eastern North America 被引量:3
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作者 方精云 李莹 《Acta Botanica Sinica》 CSCD 2002年第2期199-203,共5页
Eight temperate deciduous tree species, Acer rubrum L., A. saccharinum L., A. saccharum Marsh., Belluta alleghaniensis Britton., Fraxinus nigra Marsh., Quercus rubra L., Titia americana L., and Ulmus americana L. in e... Eight temperate deciduous tree species, Acer rubrum L., A. saccharinum L., A. saccharum Marsh., Belluta alleghaniensis Britton., Fraxinus nigra Marsh., Quercus rubra L., Titia americana L., and Ulmus americana L. in eastern North America, were selected to explore relationship between the northward distribution of temperate tree species and climatic factors. For each species, more than 30 sites at their north limits of distribution were obtained from their distribution maps, and 11 climatic indices at the north limits were computed. The standardized standard deviation (SD) method, which compares the magnitude of variance of climatic indices, was used to detect which climatic parameter was the most important for explaining northward distribution of these species. We presume that the climatic parameter that has the smallest variance at the north limit would be assigned as the dominant climatic factor for limiting the distribution of this species. The results derived from the standardized SD method indicated that the SD value of warmth index (WI) and/or annual biotemperature (ABT) were the smallest among the 11 climatic indices. Since both WI and ABT represent growing season temperature, it suggested that growing season temperature was the most important climatic factor for explaining the northward distribution of these temperate tree species. The relationships between several climatic indices, WI, coldness index (CI), annual precipitation (AP), annual range of temperature (ART) and humid/arid index were also analyzed. As a result, at the north limits of all these species, both WI and CI decreased with an increase of AP, and CI increased with an increase of ART. Besides growing season temperature, precipitation and climatic continentality also have influence on the northward distribution of the temperate trees in eastern North America. 展开更多
关键词 eastern North America northward limit of distribution climatic index growing season temperature precipitation standard deviation
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The Northward Shift of Climatic Belts in China During the Last 50 Years and the Corresponding Seasonal Responses 被引量:55
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作者 叶笃正 姜允迪 董文杰 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2003年第6期959-967,共9页
Along the meridian of 105°E, the Chinese region are divided into two parts, east and west. The results show that in the east part of China the temperate extratropical belt, the warm extratropical belt, and the no... Along the meridian of 105°E, the Chinese region are divided into two parts, east and west. The results show that in the east part of China the temperate extratropical belt, the warm extratropical belt, and the northern subtropical belt shift northward significantly, whereas the middle subtropical belt and the southern subtropical belt have less or no change. As for the northern subtropical belt, the maximal northward shift can reach 3.7 degrees of latitude. As for the warm extratropical belt, along the meridian of 120°-125°E, the maximal northward shift can reach 3-4 degrees. In the west part of China, each climatic belt changes little. Only in the Xinjiang area are the significant northward shifts. Correspondingly, it is found that in the last 50 years the traditional seasons have changed. For Beijing, Hailar, and Lanzhou, in general, summer becomes longer and winter shorter over the last 50 years. Summer begins early and ends late with respect to early 1950s. Contrary to the summer, winter begins late and ends early with respect to early 1950s. Furthermore, spring and autumn have changed over the last 50 years: with respect to early 1950s spring begins early and autumn begins late. 展开更多
关键词 climatic belts northward shift seasonal responses China
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The two annual northward jumps of the West Pacific Subtropical High and their relationship with summer rainfall in Eastern China under global warming 被引量:11
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作者 叶天舒 支蓉 +1 位作者 赵俊虎 龚志强 《Chinese Physics B》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2014年第6期656-665,共10页
The two northward jumps of summer West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) are defined based on the pentad-scale ridge data of the WPSH ridge in 1951 to 2012. The times of the northward jumps are found to have obvious i... The two northward jumps of summer West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) are defined based on the pentad-scale ridge data of the WPSH ridge in 1951 to 2012. The times of the northward jumps are found to have obvious inter-annual and decadal characteristics, i.e., the occurrence of the first northward jump of WPSH shows a "consistently early-consistently late" decadal pattern, with the transition around 1980; the occurrence of the second northward jump of WPSH shows a "consistently late-consistently early-consistently late" decadal pattern, with the transitions about 1955 and 1978, respec- tively, which is consistent with global warming. In the meantime, the times of the two northward jumps not only have a good correspondence to the beginning and ending dates of the rainy season, but also greatly influence the position of the main rain belt in Eastern China. When the first northward jump occurs early, the main rain belt is located from just north of 30~ N to the south of North China, while the opposite situation appears when the first jump occurs late. When the second jump occurs early, more rain falls over North China and South China, but less falls in the Yangtze River region, while the opposite situation appears when the second jump occurs late. In the four cases when abnormalities occur in the same year as early or late northward jumps, the position of the main rain belt can be considered as a superposition of isolated abnormal effects of the two northward jumps. Moreover, the prophase and synchronous forces of the sea surface temperature in the Pacific has great influence on the times of the northward jumps, and the driving forces of the two jumps differ. 展开更多
关键词 northward jumps of WPSH interannual variation interdecadal variation precipitation in EasternChina
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Northward Shift in Landfall Locations of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific during the Last Four Decades 被引量:8
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作者 Ting CHEN Shumin CHEN +4 位作者 Mingsen ZHOU Chaoyong TU Aoqi ZHANG Yilun CHEN Weibiao LI 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2022年第2期304-319,共16页
This study analyzes landfall locations of tropical cyclones(TCs)over the western North Pacific during 1979–2018.Results demonstrate that the landfall locations of TCs over this region have shifted northward during th... This study analyzes landfall locations of tropical cyclones(TCs)over the western North Pacific during 1979–2018.Results demonstrate that the landfall locations of TCs over this region have shifted northward during the last four decades,primarily due to the shift of landfalling TC tracks,with the decreasing/increasing proportion of westward/northward TC tracks.In particular,the northward shift of the landfalling TCs was not related to their formation locations,which have not markedly changed,whereas"no-landed"TCs have significantly shifted northward.TC movement was significantly and positively correlated to the zonal component of the steering flow,while the correlation between TC movement and the meridional component of the steering flow was relatively unobvious.The westward steering flow in the tropical central Pacific that occurred around the formation and early development of the westward TCs was significantly weakened,which was unfavorable for their westward movement,thereby,causing the higher proportions of northward moving tracks.This weakened westward flow was related to the northward shift of the subtropical high ridge,which was caused by significant weakening of the southern part of the subtropical high.The vertical wind shear,sea surface temperature,and convective available potential energy also showed that the northern region of the western North Pacific became more favorable for TC development,whereas the upper divergence,low-layer relative vorticity,and accumulated water vapor content were not obviously related to the northward shift of TCs. 展开更多
关键词 tropical cyclone track landfall location northward shift steering flow background environment
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Two Northward Jumps of the Summertime Western Pacific Subtropical High and Their Associations with the Tropical SST Anomalies 被引量:13
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作者 SU Tong-Hua XUE Feng 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 2011年第2期98-102,共5页
Based on the pentad mean ridgeline index of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), the authors identified the two northward jumps of the WPSH from 1979 to 2008 and revealed their associations with the tropical S... Based on the pentad mean ridgeline index of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), the authors identified the two northward jumps of the WPSH from 1979 to 2008 and revealed their associations with the tropical SST anomalies. The authors show that the northward jumps, especially the second jump, exhibited remarkable interannual variability. In addition, the authors find that the two northward jumps were mutually independent and were influenced by the SST anomalies in the different regions of the tropical Pacific. The first jump was positively correlated with the SST anomalies in the tropical central Pacific from the preceding winter to June. In contrast, the second jump was positively related to ENSO in the preceding winter, but this correlation tended to weaken with the decay of ENSO and disappeared in July. Instead, a positive correlation was found in the Indian Ocean. We therefore suggest that ENSO plays an indirect role in the second jump through the capacitor effect of the Indian Ocean. 展开更多
关键词 western Pacific subtropical high northward iump sea surface temperature anomaly ENSO
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Impacts of Two Types of Northward Jumps of the East Asian Upper-tropospheric Jet Stream in Midsummer on Rainfall in Eastern China 被引量:3
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作者 林中达 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2013年第4期1224-1234,共11页
The East Asian upper-tropospheric jet stream (EAJS) typically jumps north of 45~N in midsummer. These annual northward jumps are mostly classified into two dominant types: the first type corresponds to the enhanced... The East Asian upper-tropospheric jet stream (EAJS) typically jumps north of 45~N in midsummer. These annual northward jumps are mostly classified into two dominant types: the first type corresponds to the enhanced westerly to the north of the EAJS's axis (type A), while the second type is related to the weakened westerly within the EAJS's axis (type B). In this study, the impacts of these two types of northward jumps on rainfall in eastern China are investigated. Our results show that rainfall significantly increases in northern Northeast China and decreases in the Yellow River-Huaihe River valleys, as well as in North China, during the type A jump. As a result of the type B jump, rainfall is enhanced in North China and suppressed in the Yangtze River valley. The changes in rainfall in eastern China during these two types of northward jumps are mainly caused by the northward shifts of the ascending air flow that is directly related to the EAJS. Concurrent with the type A (B) jump, the EAJS-related ascending branch moves from the Yangtze-Huai River valley to northern Northeast (North) China when the EAJS's axis jumps from 40~N to 55~N (50~N). Meanwhile, the type A jump also strengthens the Northeast Asian low in the lower troposphere, leading to more moisture transport to northern Northeast China. The type B jump, however, induces a northwestward extension of the lower-tropospheric western North Pacific subtropical high and more moisture transport to North China. 展开更多
关键词 northward jump East Asian upper-tropospheric jet stream eastern China rainfall Northeast Asian low western North Pacific subtropical high
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Intensified Eastward and Northward Propagation of Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation over the Equatorial Indian Ocean in a Global Warming Scenario 被引量:2
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作者 杨静 包庆 王晓聪 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2013年第1期167-174,共8页
Northward propagation in summer and eastward propagation in winter are two distinguished features of tropical intraseasonal oscillation (TISO) over the equatorial Indian Ocean. According to numerical modeling result... Northward propagation in summer and eastward propagation in winter are two distinguished features of tropical intraseasonal oscillation (TISO) over the equatorial Indian Ocean. According to numerical modeling results, under a global warming scenario, both propagations were intensified. The enhanced northward propagation in summer can be attributed to the enhanced atmosphere-ocean interaction and the strengthened mean southerly wind; and the intensified eastward propagation in winter is associated with the enhanced convection-wind coupling process and the strengthened equatorial Kevin wave. Future changes of TISO propagations need to be explored in more climate models. 展开更多
关键词 northward propagation eastward propagation tropical intraseasonal oscillation global warming
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Upper layer waters and their northward extension from Prydz Bay in summer 被引量:4
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作者 蒲书箴 董兆乾 +2 位作者 胡筱敏 于非 陈幸荣 《Chinese Journal of Polar Science》 2001年第2期89-98,共10页
In this paper, CTD observational data obtained during the 15th Chinese National Antarctic Research Expedition (CHINARE-15) in the Southern Ocean are used to analyse and study water mass distribution in the Prydz Bay a... In this paper, CTD observational data obtained during the 15th Chinese National Antarctic Research Expedition (CHINARE-15) in the Southern Ocean are used to analyse and study water mass distribution in the Prydz Bay and its adjacent seas. The area, depth, and the thermohaline characteristics are identified for the Prydz Bay summer coastal surface water, the Prydz Bay winter water, the Prydz Bay shelf water, and the circumpolar deep water. Based on the above discussion, the northward extention of the Prydz Bay shelf water are found. Then the thermodynamic and the dynamic characteristics are further discussed, dealing with the inversion layer depth of the water temperature, the locations of the minima of the vertical temperature distribution and the temperature vertical gradient in the water column, the baraclinicity, and the effect of Coriolis deflection force. 展开更多
关键词 Prydz Bay water mass northward extention.
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Northward expansion of the western Pacific Warm Pool in late 1990s and early 2000s 被引量:1
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作者 杨宇星 王法明 《Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2012年第4期684-689,共6页
Based on 48-year (1958-2006) ocean reanalysis data of Simple Ocean Data Assimilation and 23-year (1984-2006) global ocean-surface heat flux products developed by the Objectively Analyzed Air-Sea Heat Flux Project, mer... Based on 48-year (1958-2006) ocean reanalysis data of Simple Ocean Data Assimilation and 23-year (1984-2006) global ocean-surface heat flux products developed by the Objectively Analyzed Air-Sea Heat Flux Project, meridional variation of the western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) is addressed. The results show that there is a significant expansion of the northern edge of the WPWP in the late 1990s and early 2000s. This variation is mainly within 120°E-160°E by 8°N-20°N, we define this region (120°E-160°E by 8°N-20°N) as the core region. Furthermore, analyses on upper ocean heat budget show that the short wave radiation plays a key role in the northward expansion of the northern edge of the WPWP in the core region. It is proved that the northward expansion may be caused by the change of the mixed layer which became shallower in 1994-2006 compared with 1984-1993 in the study region. The short wave radiation flux distribution within the shallower mixed layer leads to a positive anomaly in seawater temperature, promoting the northward expansion of the WPWP. 展开更多
关键词 western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) northward expansion mixed layer
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A DIAGNOSTIC RESEARCH OF THE SEASONAL NORTHWARD BEATING OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
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作者 朱玉先 喻世华 《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 SCIE 1998年第1期88-99,共12页
Diagnostic techniques of CEOF, power spectrum and bandpass filter wave are applied in this paper to analyze the seasonal northward beating of the northern subtropical high using day to day geopotential fields of 2.5 &... Diagnostic techniques of CEOF, power spectrum and bandpass filter wave are applied in this paper to analyze the seasonal northward beating of the northern subtropical high using day to day geopotential fields of 2.5 ×2.5 at 500 hPa May through July in 1988 and 1991. It is concluded that it is globally observed that the subtropical high has northward beats that propagate westward; the source of beating mainly lies in the region of Arabian Sea and central Pacific and the sink in eastern Pacific; the seasonal beating is dominated by effects of the disturbance field; low frequency oscillation plays a key role in the beating and the westward propagation so that the difference in the latter in individual years is caused by the varying source of disturbance and the low frequency waves it excites. 展开更多
关键词 SUBTROPICAL high SEASONAL northward BEATING source and SINK analysis of CEOF method low frequency OSCILLATION
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Relationship between a function of the northward pressure gradient and the Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent
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作者 CHEN Xuan ZHENG Chongwei +3 位作者 WU Hui YOU Xiaobao LI Xunqiang WANG Huipeng 《Acta Oceanologica Sinica》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2018年第9期22-28,共7页
The Equatorial Undercurrent(EUC) plays an important role in ocean circulation and global climate change. Near the equator, as the Coriolis parameter goes to 0, equatorial currents cannot be described by geostrophy i... The Equatorial Undercurrent(EUC) plays an important role in ocean circulation and global climate change. Near the equator, as the Coriolis parameter goes to 0, equatorial currents cannot be described by geostrophy in which the pressure gradient force term is balanced by the Coriolis force term. Many previous studies focus on the relationships between the EUC and El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO), the thermocline, sea surface topography, the distribution of equatorial wind stress and other atmosphere-ocean factors. However, little attention has been paid to the northward pressure gradient(NGT), which may also be important to the EUC. The pressure can be regarded as a complex nonlinear function of terms including temperature, salinity and density.This study attempts to reveal the connection between a function of the northward pressure gradient(FNP) and the EUC. The connection is derived from primitive equations, by simplifying the equations with using scaling analysis, and shows that the beta effect may be the main reason why the FNP is important to the EUC. The vertical structure of the EUC can be partially described by the FNP. The NGT has an obvious influence on the EUC while the eastward pressure gradient has a relatively smaller effect. 展开更多
关键词 EQUATORIAL Undercurrent northward pressure gradient beta effect
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Early Cretaceous subduction initiation beneath southern Tibet caused the northward flight of India
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作者 Haoyu Hu Robert J.Stern 《Geoscience Frontiers》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2020年第4期1123-1131,共9页
Collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates formed the ~2500 km long Yarlung Zangbo Suture Zone and produced the Himalaya mountains and Tibetan plateau.Here we offer a new explanation for tectonic events leading ... Collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates formed the ~2500 km long Yarlung Zangbo Suture Zone and produced the Himalaya mountains and Tibetan plateau.Here we offer a new explanation for tectonic events leading to this collision:that the northward flight of India was caused by an Early Cretaceous episode of subduction initiation on the southern margin of Tibet.Compiled data for ophiolites along the Yarlung Zangbo Suture Zone show restricted ages between 120 Ma and 130 Ma,and their supra-subduction zone affinities are best explained by seafloor spreading in what became the forearc of a north-dipping subduction zone on the southern margin of Tibet.The subsequent evolution of this new subduction zone is revealed by integrating data for arcrelated igneous rocks of the Lhasa terrane and Xigaze forearc basin deposits.Strong slab pull from this new subduction zone triggered the rifting of India from East Gondwana in Early Cretaceous time and pulled it northward to collide with Tibet in Early Paleogene time. 展开更多
关键词 Cretaceous northward SUBDUCTION
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Northward Heat Flux in Midwest Summers
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作者 Kern E. Kenyon 《International Journal of Geosciences》 2013年第8期1117-1119,共3页
Watching the winds in northwest Iowa during more than 30 summers has led me to two conclusions about the local atmosphere at ground level: there is a net northward transport of heat and water taking place throughout t... Watching the winds in northwest Iowa during more than 30 summers has led me to two conclusions about the local atmosphere at ground level: there is a net northward transport of heat and water taking place throughout the summer;warm humid winds from the south continually alternate with cool dry winds from the north. The proposed northward heat transfer is consistent with the constraint, placed on the motions of the oceans and the atmosphere, of the earth’s heat balance due to the increased absorption of solar radiation at low latitudes compared to that at high latitudes. At mid-latitudes in the interior of continents, like North America, it is the job of the atmosphere alone to constantly help satisfy the global heat balance. Although qualitative in nature, the predicted northward heat flux is strongly based on frequent observations over lengthy time intervals. 展开更多
关键词 northward HEAT FLUX MIDWEST Summers
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Northward Movement and Highly-Qualified Cultivation Technology of Super-early Maturing Ratoon Rice
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作者 周晓东 《Agricultural Science & Technology》 CAS 2015年第4期716-718,768,共4页
Objective] The alm was to expIore northward movement and highIy-quali-fied cuItivation technoIogy of super-earIy maturing ratoon rice. [Method] The 2nd-sea-son rice was cuItivated in the test with suitabIe temperature... Objective] The alm was to expIore northward movement and highIy-quali-fied cuItivation technoIogy of super-earIy maturing ratoon rice. [Method] The 2nd-sea-son rice was cuItivated in the test with suitabIe temperature, heat water and fertiIiz-er, on basis of stubbIes of the 1st-season rice. Hence, rice can be harvested twice per year, with short growth periods, and high yields, and the cuItivation is simpIe to be operated, avoiding the peak of disease damages, so that pesticides are not re-quired. [Result] The experiment of northward movement of super-earIy rice achieved success in Shenyang on October 9, 2014, with super-earIy maturing japonica rice 8501. [Conclusion] Northward movement of ratoon rice enjoys a promising prospect in increasing crop yield and guaranteeing food security. 展开更多
关键词 Retoon rice northward movement Growing in one season and harvest-ing in two seasons High-yleIding cuItivatlon PROSPECT
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弱策略的强效能:“一路象北”的国际传播适配机制 被引量:1
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作者 曾建松 毛浩然 《湖南科技大学学报(社会科学版)》 北大核心 2025年第4期168-176,共9页
针对国际传播的“逆向困局”,以“一路象北”为案例,揭示高稀缺性自然事件与适配性传播策略的协同机制。案例显示,在应急管理层主要采用政府96小时静默“应激—调适”动态演进策略,依靠西方媒体接力村民短视频;在叙事解码层,运用“本真... 针对国际传播的“逆向困局”,以“一路象北”为案例,揭示高稀缺性自然事件与适配性传播策略的协同机制。案例显示,在应急管理层主要采用政府96小时静默“应激—调适”动态演进策略,依靠西方媒体接力村民短视频;在叙事解码层,运用“本真—共情”故事供给策略;在技术升维层,实现从工具理性到关系契约的跃迁。案例表明,在静默策略的协同机制、缺陷美学的符号转译和微粒叙事的持续供给三个方面具有可迁移性,但须注意静默生态的主体性重建、身体叙事的时间性正义和技术介入的空间性敬畏。案例成功将讲述中国故事的结构性弱势转化为强传播势能,为高情感共鸣的非政治议题的国际传播提供相应的借鉴。 展开更多
关键词 国际传播 “一路象北” 传播策略 可迁移性 伦理实践
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中国木薯北移的成功实践与未来展望 被引量:1
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作者 林洪鑫 袁展汽 《热带农业科学》 2025年第2期140-145,共6页
木薯是世界三大薯类作物之一,素有“地下粮仓”和“淀粉之王”的美誉,是中国酒精加工和淀粉生产的重要原料。文章简述了木薯北移的广义和狭义定义,阐述了木薯北移对于提升木薯产能、土地利用和农民增收等方面的重要意义,分析了木薯北移... 木薯是世界三大薯类作物之一,素有“地下粮仓”和“淀粉之王”的美誉,是中国酒精加工和淀粉生产的重要原料。文章简述了木薯北移的广义和狭义定义,阐述了木薯北移对于提升木薯产能、土地利用和农民增收等方面的重要意义,分析了木薯北移存在的关键技术问题,概述了木薯北移在高产品种筛选、种茎越冬贮藏技术、间作套种种植模式、加工利用方式和配套栽培技术等方面取得的研究进展和成功实践,总结了木薯北移的发展概况和未来展望。 展开更多
关键词 木薯 北移 酒精加工 淀粉生产 木薯产能
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黑龙江省深度融入“一带一路”倡议实践路径分析
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作者 宋琳琳 《东北亚经济研究》 2025年第5期5-16,共12页
十年来,黑龙江省全面落实党和国家关于推动东北全面振兴全方位振兴的重要部署,深度融入共建“一带一路”倡议,积极参与“中蒙俄经济走廊”建设,推动对外开放高质量发展。回顾2014年以来黑龙江省深度融入“一带一路”倡议的实践做法,对... 十年来,黑龙江省全面落实党和国家关于推动东北全面振兴全方位振兴的重要部署,深度融入共建“一带一路”倡议,积极参与“中蒙俄经济走廊”建设,推动对外开放高质量发展。回顾2014年以来黑龙江省深度融入“一带一路”倡议的实践做法,对新时期探索对外开放实践新路径作出分析。提出黑龙江省依托自贸区深化对俄制度型开放,推动对俄贸易从资源互补向产业链融合升级;借力RCEP规则优势,在哈尔滨新区建设中日韩产业合作示范区,依托陆海联运通道构建东北亚物流走廊,提升对日韩高端制造、绿色能源等领域的合作层级,助力国家构建“陆海内外联动、东西双向互济”的全面开放新格局。 展开更多
关键词 黑龙江省 “一带一路”倡议 向北开放 十年回顾
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雨带北移影响下大清河北支防洪情势 被引量:1
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作者 马强 涂泽辉 +3 位作者 李郑淼 于汪洋 刘懿 杨学军 《南水北调与水利科技(中英文)》 北大核心 2025年第5期1127-1133,共7页
气候变化下我国主要降雨带呈现明显北移趋势,导致京津冀所处的海河流域防洪形势越发严峻。大清河系北支流域作为海河流域中遭受洪水灾害最为频繁区域之一,亟须开展基于数字孪生技术的精细化防洪情势分析研究,厘清流域洪水发展规律,为区... 气候变化下我国主要降雨带呈现明显北移趋势,导致京津冀所处的海河流域防洪形势越发严峻。大清河系北支流域作为海河流域中遭受洪水灾害最为频繁区域之一,亟须开展基于数字孪生技术的精细化防洪情势分析研究,厘清流域洪水发展规律,为区域防洪决策制定提供科学依据。提出基于国产二维水动力模型开展大清河系北支流域“63·8”与“23·7”两场特大洪水模拟复盘,计算研究拒马河南、北支分水比例,揭示北支洪水发展模式,寻找防洪薄弱环节,开展雨带北移影响下的未来防洪情势推演。结果表明:雨带北移态势将明显放大该区域洪水灾害等级,将10 a一遇设计洪水的总洪量提升至与现状条件下的50 a一遇设计洪水相当。本研究的方法及结论可为今后大清河系流域防洪规划及防洪措施的制定提供科学参考。 展开更多
关键词 雨带北移 洪水复盘 水动力模拟 大清河北支
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葵花8号AHI晴空水汽辐射率资料同化对北上台风“巴威”的降水预报影响研究
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作者 董琪如 刘丽丽 +3 位作者 潘晓 邱晓滨 李得勤 杨旭 《海洋预报》 北大核心 2025年第3期76-91,共16页
为提升北上台风强降水的精细化预报水平,针对2020年8月的北上台风“巴威”,利用3 km分辨率的天气预报模式(WRF)及其三维变分同化(3D-Var)系统,研究静止气象卫星葵花8号成像仪(AHI)的3条水汽通道晴空辐射率资料不同同化频次对此次北上台... 为提升北上台风强降水的精细化预报水平,针对2020年8月的北上台风“巴威”,利用3 km分辨率的天气预报模式(WRF)及其三维变分同化(3D-Var)系统,研究静止气象卫星葵花8号成像仪(AHI)的3条水汽通道晴空辐射率资料不同同化频次对此次北上台风降水预报的影响,并分析了1 h循环同化试验改善强降水的动力和热力原因。研究结果表明:循环同化AHI晴空水汽辐射率资料对台风中心最低气压及中心最大风速的前12 h预报均有改进作用;同化频次增加至1 h,台风中心最大风速预报改进明显。经技巧评分、公平技巧评分、真实技巧评分及命中率多种客观统计检验指标证实,同化AHI晴空水汽辐射率资料的试验对预报时效和降水阈值均有较好的预报技巧,且1 h循环同化试验对前24 h强降水预报优势最显著。循环同化AHI晴空水汽辐射率资料能改善对流层中上层的暖湿条件,1 h循环同化较3 h循环同化增强了低空急流及上升运动,进而提升了模式强降水预报能力。 展开更多
关键词 AHI晴空水汽辐射率 北上台风 葵花8号静止气象卫星 降水预报 台风“巴威”
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Interdecadal Change of the Northward Jump Time of the Western Pacific Subtropical High in Association with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation 被引量:3
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作者 叶天舒 申茜 +2 位作者 王阔 张志森 赵俊虎 《Journal of Meteorological Research》 SCIE CSCD 2015年第1期59-71,共13页
In this paper, the northward jump time of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH) is defined and analyzed on the interdecadal timescale. The results show that under global warming, significant interdecadal change... In this paper, the northward jump time of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH) is defined and analyzed on the interdecadal timescale. The results show that under global warming, significant interdecadal changes have occurred in the time of the WPSH northward jumps. From 1951 to 2012, the time of the first northward jump of WPSH has changed from "continuously early" to "continuously late", with the transition occurring in 1980. The time of the second northward jump of WPSH shows a similar change, with the transition occurring in 1978. In this study, we offer a new perspective by using the time of the northward jump of WPSH to explain the eastern China summer rainfall pattern change from "north-abundant-southbelow-average" to "south-abundant-north-below-average" at the end of the 1970 s. The interdecadal change in the time of the northward jump of WPSH corresponds not only with the summer rainfall pattern, but also with the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO). The WPSH northward jump time corresponding to the cold(warm) phase of the PDO is early(late). Although the PDO and the El Nino–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)both greatly influence the time of the two northward jumps of WPSH, the PDO's effect is noticed before the ENSO's by approximately 1–2 months. After excluding the ENSO influence, we derive composite vertical atmospheric circulation for different phases of the PDO. The results show that during the cold(warm)phase of the PDO, the atmospheric circulations at 200, 500, and 850 h Pa all contribute to an earlier(later)northward jump of the WPSH. 展开更多
关键词 northward jump of WPSH interdecadal change summer precipitation Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)
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