BACKGROUND Duodenal cancer is one of the most common subtypes of small intestinal cancer,and distant metastasis(DM)in this type of cancer still leads to poor prognosis.Although nomograms have recently been used in tum...BACKGROUND Duodenal cancer is one of the most common subtypes of small intestinal cancer,and distant metastasis(DM)in this type of cancer still leads to poor prognosis.Although nomograms have recently been used in tumor areas,no studies have focused on the diagnostic and prognostic evaluation of DM in patients with primary duodenal cancer.AIM To develop and evaluate nomograms for predicting the risk of DM and person-alized prognosis in patients with duodenal cancer.METHODS Data on duodenal cancer patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2019 were extracted from the Surveillance,Epidemiology,and End Results database.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors for DM in patients with duodenal cancer,and univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to determine independent prognostic factors in duodenal cancer patients with DM.Two novel nomograms were established,and the results were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves,calibration curves,and decision curve analysis(DCA).RESULTS A total of 2603 patients with duodenal cancer were included,of whom 457 cases(17.56%)had DM at the time of diagnosis.Logistic analysis revealed independent risk factors for DM in duodenal cancer patients,including gender,grade,tumor size,T stage,and N stage(P<0.05).Univariate and multivariate COX analyses further identified independent prognostic factors for duodenal cancer patients with DM,including age,histological type,T stage,tumor grade,tumor size,bone metastasis,chemotherapy,and surgery(P<0.05).The accuracy of the nomograms was validated in the training set,validation set,and expanded testing set using ROC curves,calibration curves,and DCA curves.The results of Kaplan-Meier survival curves(P<0.001)indicated that both nomograms accurately predicted the occurrence and prognosis of DM in patients with duodenal cancer.CONCLUSION The two nomograms are expected as effective tools for predicting DM risk in duodenal cancer patients and offering personalized prognosis predictions for those with DM,potentially enhancing clinical decision-making.展开更多
Objective:The proximal margin(PM)distance for distal gastrectomy(DG)of gastric cancer(GC)remains controversial.This study investigated the prognostic value of PM distance for survival outcomes,and aimed to combine cli...Objective:The proximal margin(PM)distance for distal gastrectomy(DG)of gastric cancer(GC)remains controversial.This study investigated the prognostic value of PM distance for survival outcomes,and aimed to combine clinicopathologic variables associated with survival outcomes after DG with different PM distance for GC into a prediction nomogram.Methods:Patients who underwent radical DG from June 2004 to June 2014 at Department of General Surgery,Nanfang Hospital,Southern Medical University were included.The first endpoints of the prognostic value of PM distance(assessed in 0.5 cm increments)for disease-free survival(DFS)and overall survival(OS)were assessed.Multivariate analysis by Cox proportional hazards regression was performed using the training set,and the nomogram was constructed,patients were chronologically assigned to the training set for dates from June 1,2004 to January 30,2012(n=493)and to the validation set from February 1,2012 to June 30,2014(n=211).Results:Among 704 patients with p TNM stage I,p TNM stage II,T1-2,T3-4,N0,differentiated type,tumor size≤5.0 cm,a PM of(2.1-5.0)cm vs.PM≤2.0 cm showed a statistically significant difference in DFS and OS,while a PM>5.0 cm was not associated with any further improvement in DFS and OS vs.a PM of 2.1-5.0 cm.In patients with p TNM stage III,N1,N2-3,undifferentiated type,tumor size>5.0 cm,the PM distance was not significantly correlated with DFS and OS between patients with a PM of(2.1-5.0)cm and a PM≤2 cm,or between patients with a PM>5.0 cm and a PM of(2.1-5.0)cm,so there were no significant differences across the three PM groups.In the training set,the C-indexes of DFS and OS,were 0.721 and 0.735,respectively,and in the validation set,the C-indexes of DFS and OS,were 0.752 and 0.751,respectively.Conclusions:It is necessary to obtain not less than 2.0 cm of PM distance in early-stage disease,while PM distance was not associated with long-term survival in later and more aggressive stages of disease because more advanced GC is a systemic disease.Different types of patients should be considered for removal of an individualized PM distance intra-operatively.We developed a universally applicable prediction model for accurately determining the 1-year,3-year and 5-year DFS and OS of GC patients according to their preoperative clinicopathologic characteristics and PM distance.展开更多
AIM: To assist in the selection of suitable nomograms for obtaining desired predictions in daily clinicalpractice.METHODS: We conducted electronic searches for journal articles on colorectal cancer(CRC)-associated nom...AIM: To assist in the selection of suitable nomograms for obtaining desired predictions in daily clinicalpractice.METHODS: We conducted electronic searches for journal articles on colorectal cancer(CRC)-associated nomograms using the search terms colon/rectal/colorectal/nomogram. Of 174 articles initially found, we retrieved 28 studies in which a nomogram for CRC was developed.RESULTS: We discuss the currently available CRCassociated nomograms, including those that predict the oncological prognosis, the short-term outcome of treatments, such as surgery or neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy, and the future development of CRC. Developing nomograms always presents a dilemma. On the one hand, the desire to cover as wide a patient range as possible tends to produce nomograms that are too complex and yet have C-indexes that are not sufficiently high. Conversely, confining the target patients might impair the clinical applicability of constructed nomograms.CONCLUSION: The information provided in this review should be of use in selecting a nomogram suitable for obtaining desired predictions in daily clinical practice.展开更多
BACKGROUND Liver metastasis(LM)remains a major cause of cancer-related death in patients with pancreatic cancer(PC)and is associated with a poor prognosis.Therefore,identifying the risk and prognostic factors in PC pa...BACKGROUND Liver metastasis(LM)remains a major cause of cancer-related death in patients with pancreatic cancer(PC)and is associated with a poor prognosis.Therefore,identifying the risk and prognostic factors in PC patients with LM(PCLM)is essential as it may aid in providing timely medical interventions to improve the prognosis of these patients.However,there are limited data on risk and prognostic factors in PCLM patients.AIM To investigate the risk and prognostic factors of PCLM and develop corresponding diagnostic and prognostic nomograms.METHODS Patients with primary PC diagnosed between 2010 and 2015 were reviewed from the Surveillance,Epidemiology,and Results Database.Risk factors were identified using multivariate logistic regression analysis to develop the diagnostic mode.The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Cox regression model was used to determine the prognostic factors needed to develop the prognostic model.The performance of the two nomogram models was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves,calibration plots,decision curve analysis(DCA),and risk subgroup classification.The Kaplan-Meier method with a logrank test was used for survival analysis.RESULTS We enrolled 33459 patients with PC in this study.Of them,11458(34.2%)patients had LM at initial diagnosis.Age at diagnosis,primary site,lymph node metastasis,pathological type,tumor size,and pathological grade were identified as independent risk factors for LM in patients with PC.Age>70 years,adenocarcinoma,poor or anaplastic differentiation,lung metastases,no surgery,and no chemotherapy were the independently associated risk factors for poor prognosis in patients with PCLM.The C-index of diagnostic and prognostic nomograms were 0.731 and 0.753,respectively.The two nomograms could accurately predict the occurrence and prognosis of patients with PCLM based on the observed analysis results of ROC curves,calibration plots,and DCA curves.The prognostic nomogram could stratify patients into prognostic groups and perform well in internal validation.CONCLUSION Our study identified the risk and prognostic factors in patients with PCLM and developed corresponding diagnostic and prognostic nomograms to help clinicians in subsequent clinical evaluation and intervention.External validation is required to confirm these results.展开更多
BACKGROUND It is positive to integrate and evaluate the risk factors for postpartum depression in patients with pregnancy-induced hypertension syndrome and to detect highrisk patients as early as possible,which has ap...BACKGROUND It is positive to integrate and evaluate the risk factors for postpartum depression in patients with pregnancy-induced hypertension syndrome and to detect highrisk patients as early as possible,which has application value for the clinical development of personalized prevention programs and prognosis of patients.AIM To analyze factors related to postpartum depression in patients with pregnancyinduced hypertension and construct and evaluate a nomogram model.METHODS The clinical data of 276 patients with pregnancy-induced hypertension admitted to Huzhou Maternity and Child Health Care Hospital between January 2017 and April 2022 were retrospectively analyzed.We evaluated the depression incidence at 6 wk postpartum.The depression group included patients with postpartum depression,and the remainder were in the non-depression group.Multivariate logistic regression analysis and the LASSO regression model were applied to analyze the factors related to postpartum depression in patients with pregnancyinduced hypertension.After that,a risk prediction model nomogram was constructed and evaluated.RESULTS Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that vitamin A deficiency(VAD)during pregnancy and puerperium,family history of hypertension,maternal intestinal flora imbalance,eicosapentaenoic acid(EPA),and docosahexaenoic acid(DHA)were independent risk factors for postpartum depression in patients with pregnancy-induced hypertension(P<0.05).We constructed the nomogram model based on these five risk factors.The area under the curve,specificity,and sensitivity of the model in predicting postpartum depression in patients with pregnancy-induced hypertension was 0.867(95%confidence interval:0.828–0.935),0.676,and 0.889,respectively.The average absolute error was 0.037(Hosmer-Lemeshow testχ2=10.739,P=0.217).CONCLUSION VAD during pregnancy and puerperium,family history of hypertension,maternal intestinal flora imbalance,EPA,and DHA affect postpartum depression in patients with pregnancy-induced hypertension.展开更多
Objective:We aimed to established normal uroflowmetric values and subsequently derived nomograms of _(max)imum flow rate(Q_(max))and average flow rate(Q_(avg))against voided volume(VV)in children aged 5-15 years at ou...Objective:We aimed to established normal uroflowmetric values and subsequently derived nomograms of _(max)imum flow rate(Q_(max))and average flow rate(Q_(avg))against voided volume(VV)in children aged 5-15 years at our institute.Methods:A total of 440 children underwent uroflowmetric evaluation with no history of urological,renal,psychiatric,or neurological disorder between 5 and 15 years of age.Each subject data regarding Q_(max),Q_(avg),VV,time to Q_(max),and flow time,as well as age,sex,height,and weight were recorded.Of the 440 children,around 300(68.18%)children could produce a normal flow rate at VV of more than 50 mL.Of the remaining 140(31.82%)children,50.00%voided less than 50 mL,and remaining 50.00%had abnormal voiding pattern,staccato or interrupted(21.43%each)and plateau or tower shaped(3.57%each).Cases were divided into two age groups(5-9 years and 10-15 years),and uroflowmetric analysis was done between boys and girls in both age groups to derive nomograms of Q_(avg) and Q_(max).Results:Q_(max) and Q_(avg) flow nomograms were plotted for boys and girls.Mean Q_(max) for boys was 16.68 mL/s and for girls 20.69 mL/s.The mean Q_(avg) values were 11.04 mL/s and 8.60 mL/s for girls and boys,respectively.The Q_(max) and Q_(avg) values were higher in girls.There were significant increases in flow rates with increasing age,body surface area,and VV in both sexes.Conclusions:Nomograms for Q_(max) and Q_(avg) may be a useful tool in evaluation of lower urinary tract disturbances in children.展开更多
Objective:This study aims to develop prognostic nomograms based on inflammatory markers for hepatitis B virus(HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)patients.Methods:Between November 2003 and December 2017,1,350HCC...Objective:This study aims to develop prognostic nomograms based on inflammatory markers for hepatitis B virus(HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)patients.Methods:Between November 2003 and December 2017,1,350HCC patients who were HBV surface antigen(HBsAg)positive and underwent curative hepatectomy were retrospectively collected from two medical centers.展开更多
BACKGROUND Esophageal varices(EV)are the most fatal complication of chronic hepatitis B(CHB)related cirrhosis.The prognosis is poor,especially after the first upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage.AIM To construct nomogra...BACKGROUND Esophageal varices(EV)are the most fatal complication of chronic hepatitis B(CHB)related cirrhosis.The prognosis is poor,especially after the first upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage.AIM To construct nomograms to predict the risk and severity of EV in patients with CHB related cirrhosis.METHODS Between 2016 and 2018,the patients with CHB related cirrhosis were recruited and divided into a training or validation cohort at The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University.Clinical and ultrasonic parameters that were closely related to EV risk and severity were screened out by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses,and integrated into two nomograms,respectively.Both nomograms were internally and externally validated by calibration,concordance index(C-index),receiver operating characteristic curve,and decision curve analyses(DCA).RESULTS A total of 307 patients with CHB related cirrhosis were recruited.The independent risk factors for EV included Child-Pugh class[odds ratio(OR)=7.705,95%confidence interval(CI)=2.169-27.370,P=0.002],platelet count(OR=0.992,95%CI=0.984-1.000,P=0.044),splenic portal index(SPI)(OR=3.895,95%CI=1.630-9.308,P=0.002),and liver fibrosis index(LFI)(OR=3.603,95%CI=1.336-9.719,P=0.011);those of EV severity included Child-Pugh class(OR=5.436,95%CI=2.112-13.990,P<0.001),mean portal vein velocity(OR=1.479,95%CI=1.043-2.098,P=0.028),portal vein diameter(OR=1.397,95%CI=1.021-1.912,P=0.037),SPI(OR=1.463,95%CI=1.030-2.079,P=0.034),and LFI(OR=3.089,95%CI=1.442-6.617,P=0.004).Two nomograms(predicting EV risk and severity,respectively)were well-calibrated and had a favorable discriminative ability,with C-indexes of 0.916 and 0.846 in the training cohort,respectively,higher than those of other predictive indexes,like LFI(C-indexes=0.781 and 0.738),SPI(C-indexes=0.805 and 0.714),ratio of platelet count to spleen diameter(PSR)(C-indexes=0.822 and 0.726),King’s score(C-indexes=0.694 and 0.609),and Lok index(C-indexes=0.788 and 0.700).The areas under the curves(AUCs)of the two nomograms were 0.916 and 0.846 in the training cohort,respectively,higher than those of LFI(AUCs=0.781 and 0.738),SPI(AUCs=0.805 and 0.714),PSR(AUCs=0.822 and 0.726),King’s score(AUCs=0.694 and 0.609),and Lok index(AUCs=0.788 and 0.700).Better net benefits were shown in the DCA.The results were validated in the validation cohort.CONCLUSION Nomograms incorporating clinical and ultrasonic variables are efficient in noninvasively predicting the risk and severity of EV.展开更多
BACKGROUND In recent decades, neoadjuvant therapy(NT) has been the standardized treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer(LARC). Approximately 8%-35% of patients with LARC who received NT were reported to have achi...BACKGROUND In recent decades, neoadjuvant therapy(NT) has been the standardized treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer(LARC). Approximately 8%-35% of patients with LARC who received NT were reported to have achieved a complete pathological response(pCR). If the pathological response(PR) can be accurately predicted, these patients may not need surgery. In addition, no response after NT implies that the tumor is destructive, resistant to both chemotherapy and radiotherapy, and prone to having a high metastatic potential. Therefore,developing accurate models to predict PR has great clinical significance and can help achieve individualized treatment in LARC patients.AIM To establish nomograms for predicting PR to different NT regimens based on pretreatment parameters for patients with LARC.METHODS Rectal cancer patients were identified from the database of The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University from January 2012 to December 2016. Logistic regression and nomograms were developed to predict the probability of pCR and good downstaging to ypT0-2N0M0(ypTNM 0-I), respectively, based on pretreatment parameters for all LARC patients. Nomograms were also developed for three NT regimens(capecitabine/deGramont-RT, mFOLFOX6, and m FOLFOX6-RT) to predict pCR probability.RESULTS Four hundred and three patients were included in this study; 72(17.9%) had pCR at the final pathology report, and 177(43.9%) achieved good downstaging to ypT0-2N0M0(ypTNM 0-I). The nomogram for predicting pCR probability showed that NT regimens, tumor differentiation, mesorectal fascia(MRF) status,and tumor length significantly influenced pCR probability. When predicting the probability of good downstaging, tumor differentiation, MRF status, and clinical T stage were the significant factors. Nomograms were developed based on NT regimens. For the capecitabine/de Gramont-RT group, the multivariate analysis showed that the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio(NLR) was the only significant factor, thus we could not develop a nomogram for this regimen. For the m FOLFOX6-RT group, the analysis showed that the significant factors were tumor length and MRF status; and for the mFOLFOX6 group, the significant factors were tumor length and tumor differentiation.CONCLUSION We established accurate nomograms for predicting the PR to preoperative NT regimens based on pretreatment parameters for LARC patients.展开更多
BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer is a common digestive cancer worldwide.As a comprehensive treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer(LARC),neoadjuvant therapy(NT)has been increasingly used as the standard treatment for...BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer is a common digestive cancer worldwide.As a comprehensive treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer(LARC),neoadjuvant therapy(NT)has been increasingly used as the standard treatment for clinical stage II/III rectal cancer.However,few patients achieve a complete pathological response,and most patients require surgical resection and adjuvant therapy.Therefore,identifying risk factors and developing accurate models to predict the prognosis of LARC patients are of great clinical significance.AIM To establish effective prognostic nomograms and risk score prediction models to predict overall survival(OS)and disease-free survival(DFS)for LARC treated with NT.METHODS Nomograms and risk factor score prediction models were based on patients who received NT at the Cancer Hospital from 2015 to 2017.The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model were utilized to screen for prognostic risk factors,which were validated by the Cox regression method.Assessment of the performance of the two prediction models was conducted using receiver operating characteristic curves,and that of the two nomograms was conducted by calculating the concordance index(C-index)and calibration curves.The results were validated in a cohort of 65 patients from 2015 to 2017.RESULTS Seven features were significantly associated with OS and were included in the OS prediction nomogram and prediction model:Vascular_tumors_bolt,cancer nodules,yN,body mass index,matchmouth distance from the edge,nerve aggression and postoperative carcinoembryonic antigen.The nomogram showed good predictive value for OS,with a C-index of 0.91(95%CI:0.85,0.97)and good calibration.In the validation cohort,the C-index was 0.69(95%CI:0.53,0.84).The risk factor prediction model showed good predictive value.The areas under the curve for 3-and 5-year survival were 0.811 and 0.782.The nomogram for predicting DFS included ypTNM and nerve aggression and showed good calibration and a C-index of 0.77(95%CI:0.69,0.85).In the validation cohort,the C-index was 0.71(95%CI:0.61,0.81).The prediction model for DFS also had good predictive value,with an AUC for 3-year survival of 0.784 and an AUC for 5-year survival of 0.754.CONCLUSION We established accurate nomograms and prediction models for predicting OS and DFS in patients with LARC after undergoing NT.展开更多
Objective: To investigate the prognostic value of pretreatment human papillomavirus(HPV) viral load for cervical cancer, and to develop nomograms based on HPV load and other clinicopathological factors for long-term s...Objective: To investigate the prognostic value of pretreatment human papillomavirus(HPV) viral load for cervical cancer, and to develop nomograms based on HPV load and other clinicopathological factors for long-term survival.Methods: We conducted a prospective study on cervical squamous cell carcinoma(SCC) patients diagnosed between January 2003 and December 2008. Cervical samples were tested for HPV viral load by the Hybrid Capture II(HCII) assay before treatment and 6 months after treatment. Clinical characteristics and follow-up information were also collected. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards model was used to adjust covariates in both the radical hysterectomy(RH) treatment group and concurrent chemoradiotherapy(CCRT) treatment group to identify relevant covariates, and then nomograms were constructed and used for internal validation.Results: A total of 520 SCC patients enrolled in this study with a median follow-up of 127 months, 360 patients received RH, whereas 160 patients received CCRT. The median HPV viral load in RH and CCRT groups was356.10 and 294.29, respectively. Tumor size was positively correlated with high pretreatment HPV load in both groups. In CCRT group, the advanced International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics(FIGO) stage and enlarged retroperitoneal lymph node status determined by computed tomography(LNSCT) were correlated with low HPV load group. Initial HPV viral load, FIGO stage and lymph node metastasis were prognostic factors for RH group, whereas HPV viral load, squamous cell carcinoma antigen(SCC-Ag) level and LNSCT were identified as prognostic factors for CCRT group. Nomograms incorporating these predictors for 10-year progression-free survival(PFS) were constructed [concordance index(C-index): 0.756, 0.749].Conclusions: A low pretreatment HPV viral load is an independent prognostic factor for poor prognosis of cervical SCC and is related to other clinicopathological factors. The survival nomogram based on HPV viral load could predict the long-term prognosis.展开更多
Objectives:The study aimed to evaluate quality of nephrolithometric nomograms to predict stone-free rates(SFRs)and complication rates(CRs)in case of minimally invasive percutaneous nephrolithotomy(PNL).In the last dec...Objectives:The study aimed to evaluate quality of nephrolithometric nomograms to predict stone-free rates(SFRs)and complication rates(CRs)in case of minimally invasive percutaneous nephrolithotomy(PNL).In the last decade,nomograms have been introduced to estimate the SFRs and CRs of PNL.However,no data are available regarding their reliability in case of utilization of miniaturized devices.Herein we present a prospective multicentric study to evaluate reliability of Guy’s stone score(GSS),the stone size,tract length,obstruction,number of involved calyces,and essence of stone(S.T.O.N.E.)nephrolithometry score and Clinical Research Office of the Endourological Society(CROES)score in patients treated with minimally invasive PNL.Methods:We evaluated SFRs and CRs of 222 adult patients treated with miniaturized PNL.Patients were considered stone-free if no residual fragments of any size at post-operative unenhanced computed tomography scan.Patients demographics,SFRs,and CRs were reported and analyzed.Performances of nomograms were evaluated with the area under the curve(AUC).Results:We included 222 patients,the AUCs of GSS,CROES score,and S.T.O.N.E.nephrolithometry score were 0.69(95%confidence interval[CI]0.61-0.78),0.64(95%CI 0.56-0.73),and 0.62(95%CI 0.52-0.71),respectively.Regarding SFRs,at multivariate binomial logistic regression,only the GSS had significance with an odds ratio of 0.53(95%CI 0.31e0.95,p=0.04).We did not find significant correlation with complications,with only a trend for GSS.Conclusion:This is the first study evaluating nomograms in miniaturized PNL.They still show good reliability;however,our data showed lower performances compared to standard PNL.We emphasize the need of further studies to confirm this trend.A dedicated nomogram for minimally invasive PNL may be necessary.展开更多
BACKGROUND There are few effective tools to predict survival in patients with invasive intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas.AIM To develop comprehensive nomograms to individually estimate the survi...BACKGROUND There are few effective tools to predict survival in patients with invasive intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas.AIM To develop comprehensive nomograms to individually estimate the survival outcome of patients with invasive intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas.METHODS Data of 1219 patients with invasive intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms after resection were extracted from the Surveillance,Epidemiology,and End Results database,and randomly divided into the training(n=853)and the validation(n=366)cohorts.Based on the Cox regression model,nomograms were constructed to predict overall survival and cancer-specific survival for an individual patient.The performance of the nomograms was measured according to discrimination,calibration,and clinical utility.Moreover,we compared the predictive accuracy of the nomograms with that of the traditional staging system.RESULTS In the training cohort,age,marital status,histological type,T stage,N stage,M stage,and chemotherapy were selected to construct nomograms.Compared with the American Joint Committee on Cancer 7th staging system,the nomograms were generally more discriminative.The nomograms passed the calibration steps by showing high consistency between actual probability and nomogram prediction.Categorial net classification improvements and integrated discrimination improvements suggested that the predictive accuracy of the nomograms exceeded that of the American Joint Committee on Cancer staging system.With respect to decision curve analyses,the nomograms exhibited more preferable net benefit gains than the staging system across a wide range of threshold probabilities.CONCLUSION The nomograms show improved predictive accuracy,discrimination capability,and clinical utility,which can be used as reliable tools for risk classification and treatment recommendations.展开更多
This study aimed to establish nomograms to preoperatively predict the possibility of testicular salvage(TS)in patients with testicular torsion.The clinical data of 204 patients with testicular torsion diagnosed at Xij...This study aimed to establish nomograms to preoperatively predict the possibility of testicular salvage(TS)in patients with testicular torsion.The clinical data of 204 patients with testicular torsion diagnosed at Xijing Hospital and Tangdu Hospital(Xi'an,China)between August 2008 and November 2019 were retrospectively analyzed.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to determine the independent predictors of TS.Based on multivariate regression coefficients,nomograms to predict possibility of TS were established.The predictive ability of the nomograms was internally validated by receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves and calibration plots.The duration of symptoms ranged from 2 h to 1 month,with a median of 3.5 days.Thirty(14.7%)patients underwent surgical reduction and contralateral orchiopexy,while the remaining 174(85.3%)underwent orchiectomy and contralateral orchiopexy.Finally,long symptom duration was an independent risk predictor for TS,while visible intratesticular blood flow and homogeneous testicular echotexture under color Doppler ultrasound were independent protective predictors.Internal validation showed that the nomograms,which were established by integrating these three predictive factors,had good discrimination ability in predicting the possibility of TS(areas under the ROC curves were 0.851 and 0.828,respectively).The calibration plots showed good agreement between the nomogram-predicted possibility of TS and the actual situation.In conclusion,this brief preoperative prediction tool will help clinicians to quickly determine the urgency of surgical exploration.展开更多
BACKGROUND There is no unified standard to predict postoperative survival in patients with tongue squamous cell carcinoma(TSCC),hence the urgency to develop a model to accurately predict the prognosis of these patient...BACKGROUND There is no unified standard to predict postoperative survival in patients with tongue squamous cell carcinoma(TSCC),hence the urgency to develop a model to accurately predict the prognosis of these patients.AIM To develop and validate nomograms for predicting overall survival(OS)and cancer-specific survival(CSS)of patients with TSCC.METHODS A cohort of 3454 patients with TSCC from the Surveillance,Epidemiology,and End Results(SEER)database was used to develop nomograms;another independent cohort of 203 patients with TSCC from the Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery,First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine,was used for external validation.Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify useful variables for the development of nomograms.The calibration curve,area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC)analysis,concordance index(C-index),net reclassification index(NRI),and decision curve analysis(DCA)were used to assess the calibration,discrimination ability,and clinical utility of the nomograms.RESULTS Eight variables were selected and used to develop nomograms for patients with TSCC.The Cindex(0.741 and 0.757 for OS and CSS in the training cohort and 0.800 and 0.830 in the validation cohort,respectively)and AUC indicated that the discrimination abilities of these nomograms were acceptable.The calibration curves of OS and CSS indicated that the predicted and actual values were consistent in both the training and validation cohorts.The NRI values(training cohort:0.493 and 0.482 for 3-and 5-year OS and 0.424 and 0.402 for 3-and 5-year CSS;validation cohort:0.635 and 0.750 for 3-and 5-year OS and 0.354 and 0.608 for 3-and 5-year CSS,respectively)and DCA results indicated that the nomograms were significantly better than the tumor-node-metastasis staging system in predicting the prognosis of patients with TSCC.CONCLUSION Our nomograms can accurately predict patient prognoses and assist clinicians in improving decision-making concerning patients with TSCC in clinical practice.展开更多
BACKGROUND Patients with pathological stages T1N2-3(pT1N2-3)and pT3N0 gastric cancer(GC)have not been routinely included in the target population for postoperative chemotherapy according to the Japanese Gastric Cancer...BACKGROUND Patients with pathological stages T1N2-3(pT1N2-3)and pT3N0 gastric cancer(GC)have not been routinely included in the target population for postoperative chemotherapy according to the Japanese Gastric Cancer Treatment Guideline,and their prognosis is significantly different.AIM To identify the high-risk patients after radical surgery by analyzing biomarkers and clinicopathological features and construct prognostic models for them.METHODS A total of 459 patients with pT1N2-3/pT3N0 GC were retrospectively selected for the study.The Chi-square test was used to analyze the differences in the clinicopathological features between the pT1N2-3 and pT3N0 groups.The Kaplan–Meier analysis and log-rank test were used to analyze overall survival(OS).The independent risk factors for patient prognosis were analyzed by univariate and multivariate analyses based on the Cox proportional hazards regression model.The cutoff values of continuous variables were identified by receiver operating characteristic curve.The nomogram models were constructed with R studio.RESULTS There was no statistically significant difference in OS between the pT1N2-3 and pT3N0 groups(P=0.374).Prealbumin(P=0.040),carcino-embryonic antigen(CEA)(P=0.021),and metastatic lymph node ratio(mLNR)(P=0.035)were independent risk factors for prognosis in the pT1N2-3 group.Age(P=0.039),body mass index(BMI)(P=0.002),and gastrectomy(P<0.001)were independent risk factors for prognosis in the pT3N0 group.The area under the curve values of the nomogram models for predicting the 5-year prognosis of the pT1N2-3 group and pT3N0 group were 0.765 and 0.699,respectively.CONCLUSION Nomogram model combining prealbumin,CEA,and mLNR levels can be used to predict the prognosis of pT1N2-3 GC.Nomogram model combining age,BMI,and gastrectomy can be used to predict the prognosis of pT3N0 GC.展开更多
BACKGROUND The incidence of proximal gastric cancer(GC)is increasing,and methods for the prediction of the long-term survival of proximal GC patients have not been well established.AIM To develop nomograms for the pre...BACKGROUND The incidence of proximal gastric cancer(GC)is increasing,and methods for the prediction of the long-term survival of proximal GC patients have not been well established.AIM To develop nomograms for the prediction of long-term survival among proximal GC patients.METHODS Between January 2007 and June 2013,we prospectively collected and retrospectively analyzed the medical records of 746 patients with proximal GC,who were divided into a training set(n=560,75%)and a validation set(n=186,25%).A Cox regression analysis was used to identify the preoperative and postoperative risk factors for overall survival(OS).RESULTS Among the 746 patients examined,the 3-and 5-year OS rates were 66.1%and 58.4%,respectively.In the training set,preoperative T stage(cT),N stage(cN),CA19-9,tumor size,ASA core,and 3-to 6-mo weight loss were incorporated into the preoperative nomogram to predict the OS.In addition to these variables,lymphatic vascular infiltration(LVI),postoperative tumor size,T stage,N stage,blood transfusions,and complications were incorporated into the postoperative nomogram.All calibration curves used to determine the OS probability fit well.In the training set,the preoperative nomogram achieved a C-index of 0.751[95%confidence interval(CI):0.732-0.770]in predicting OS and accurately stratified the patients into four prognostic subgroups(5-year OS rates:86.8%,73.0%,43.72%,and 20.9%,P<0.001).The postoperative nomogram had a C-index of 0.758 in predicting OS and accurately stratified the patients into four prognostic subgroups(5-year OS rates:82.6%,74.3%,45.9%,and 18.9%,P<0.001).CONCLUSION The nomograms accurately predicted the pre-and postoperative long-term survival of proximal GC patients.展开更多
基金Supported by State Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine Base Construction Stomach Cancer Special Fund,No.Y2020CX57Jiangsu Provincial Graduate Research and Practical Innovation Program Project,No.SJCX23-0799.
文摘BACKGROUND Duodenal cancer is one of the most common subtypes of small intestinal cancer,and distant metastasis(DM)in this type of cancer still leads to poor prognosis.Although nomograms have recently been used in tumor areas,no studies have focused on the diagnostic and prognostic evaluation of DM in patients with primary duodenal cancer.AIM To develop and evaluate nomograms for predicting the risk of DM and person-alized prognosis in patients with duodenal cancer.METHODS Data on duodenal cancer patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2019 were extracted from the Surveillance,Epidemiology,and End Results database.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors for DM in patients with duodenal cancer,and univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to determine independent prognostic factors in duodenal cancer patients with DM.Two novel nomograms were established,and the results were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves,calibration curves,and decision curve analysis(DCA).RESULTS A total of 2603 patients with duodenal cancer were included,of whom 457 cases(17.56%)had DM at the time of diagnosis.Logistic analysis revealed independent risk factors for DM in duodenal cancer patients,including gender,grade,tumor size,T stage,and N stage(P<0.05).Univariate and multivariate COX analyses further identified independent prognostic factors for duodenal cancer patients with DM,including age,histological type,T stage,tumor grade,tumor size,bone metastasis,chemotherapy,and surgery(P<0.05).The accuracy of the nomograms was validated in the training set,validation set,and expanded testing set using ROC curves,calibration curves,and DCA curves.The results of Kaplan-Meier survival curves(P<0.001)indicated that both nomograms accurately predicted the occurrence and prognosis of DM in patients with duodenal cancer.CONCLUSION The two nomograms are expected as effective tools for predicting DM risk in duodenal cancer patients and offering personalized prognosis predictions for those with DM,potentially enhancing clinical decision-making.
基金supported by Grant of Wu Jieping Medical Funding(No.320.2710.1819)。
文摘Objective:The proximal margin(PM)distance for distal gastrectomy(DG)of gastric cancer(GC)remains controversial.This study investigated the prognostic value of PM distance for survival outcomes,and aimed to combine clinicopathologic variables associated with survival outcomes after DG with different PM distance for GC into a prediction nomogram.Methods:Patients who underwent radical DG from June 2004 to June 2014 at Department of General Surgery,Nanfang Hospital,Southern Medical University were included.The first endpoints of the prognostic value of PM distance(assessed in 0.5 cm increments)for disease-free survival(DFS)and overall survival(OS)were assessed.Multivariate analysis by Cox proportional hazards regression was performed using the training set,and the nomogram was constructed,patients were chronologically assigned to the training set for dates from June 1,2004 to January 30,2012(n=493)and to the validation set from February 1,2012 to June 30,2014(n=211).Results:Among 704 patients with p TNM stage I,p TNM stage II,T1-2,T3-4,N0,differentiated type,tumor size≤5.0 cm,a PM of(2.1-5.0)cm vs.PM≤2.0 cm showed a statistically significant difference in DFS and OS,while a PM>5.0 cm was not associated with any further improvement in DFS and OS vs.a PM of 2.1-5.0 cm.In patients with p TNM stage III,N1,N2-3,undifferentiated type,tumor size>5.0 cm,the PM distance was not significantly correlated with DFS and OS between patients with a PM of(2.1-5.0)cm and a PM≤2 cm,or between patients with a PM>5.0 cm and a PM of(2.1-5.0)cm,so there were no significant differences across the three PM groups.In the training set,the C-indexes of DFS and OS,were 0.721 and 0.735,respectively,and in the validation set,the C-indexes of DFS and OS,were 0.752 and 0.751,respectively.Conclusions:It is necessary to obtain not less than 2.0 cm of PM distance in early-stage disease,while PM distance was not associated with long-term survival in later and more aggressive stages of disease because more advanced GC is a systemic disease.Different types of patients should be considered for removal of an individualized PM distance intra-operatively.We developed a universally applicable prediction model for accurately determining the 1-year,3-year and 5-year DFS and OS of GC patients according to their preoperative clinicopathologic characteristics and PM distance.
文摘AIM: To assist in the selection of suitable nomograms for obtaining desired predictions in daily clinicalpractice.METHODS: We conducted electronic searches for journal articles on colorectal cancer(CRC)-associated nomograms using the search terms colon/rectal/colorectal/nomogram. Of 174 articles initially found, we retrieved 28 studies in which a nomogram for CRC was developed.RESULTS: We discuss the currently available CRCassociated nomograms, including those that predict the oncological prognosis, the short-term outcome of treatments, such as surgery or neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy, and the future development of CRC. Developing nomograms always presents a dilemma. On the one hand, the desire to cover as wide a patient range as possible tends to produce nomograms that are too complex and yet have C-indexes that are not sufficiently high. Conversely, confining the target patients might impair the clinical applicability of constructed nomograms.CONCLUSION: The information provided in this review should be of use in selecting a nomogram suitable for obtaining desired predictions in daily clinical practice.
文摘BACKGROUND Liver metastasis(LM)remains a major cause of cancer-related death in patients with pancreatic cancer(PC)and is associated with a poor prognosis.Therefore,identifying the risk and prognostic factors in PC patients with LM(PCLM)is essential as it may aid in providing timely medical interventions to improve the prognosis of these patients.However,there are limited data on risk and prognostic factors in PCLM patients.AIM To investigate the risk and prognostic factors of PCLM and develop corresponding diagnostic and prognostic nomograms.METHODS Patients with primary PC diagnosed between 2010 and 2015 were reviewed from the Surveillance,Epidemiology,and Results Database.Risk factors were identified using multivariate logistic regression analysis to develop the diagnostic mode.The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Cox regression model was used to determine the prognostic factors needed to develop the prognostic model.The performance of the two nomogram models was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves,calibration plots,decision curve analysis(DCA),and risk subgroup classification.The Kaplan-Meier method with a logrank test was used for survival analysis.RESULTS We enrolled 33459 patients with PC in this study.Of them,11458(34.2%)patients had LM at initial diagnosis.Age at diagnosis,primary site,lymph node metastasis,pathological type,tumor size,and pathological grade were identified as independent risk factors for LM in patients with PC.Age>70 years,adenocarcinoma,poor or anaplastic differentiation,lung metastases,no surgery,and no chemotherapy were the independently associated risk factors for poor prognosis in patients with PCLM.The C-index of diagnostic and prognostic nomograms were 0.731 and 0.753,respectively.The two nomograms could accurately predict the occurrence and prognosis of patients with PCLM based on the observed analysis results of ROC curves,calibration plots,and DCA curves.The prognostic nomogram could stratify patients into prognostic groups and perform well in internal validation.CONCLUSION Our study identified the risk and prognostic factors in patients with PCLM and developed corresponding diagnostic and prognostic nomograms to help clinicians in subsequent clinical evaluation and intervention.External validation is required to confirm these results.
基金Supported by Medical Health Science and Technology Project of Huzhou City,No.2021GY01.
文摘BACKGROUND It is positive to integrate and evaluate the risk factors for postpartum depression in patients with pregnancy-induced hypertension syndrome and to detect highrisk patients as early as possible,which has application value for the clinical development of personalized prevention programs and prognosis of patients.AIM To analyze factors related to postpartum depression in patients with pregnancyinduced hypertension and construct and evaluate a nomogram model.METHODS The clinical data of 276 patients with pregnancy-induced hypertension admitted to Huzhou Maternity and Child Health Care Hospital between January 2017 and April 2022 were retrospectively analyzed.We evaluated the depression incidence at 6 wk postpartum.The depression group included patients with postpartum depression,and the remainder were in the non-depression group.Multivariate logistic regression analysis and the LASSO regression model were applied to analyze the factors related to postpartum depression in patients with pregnancyinduced hypertension.After that,a risk prediction model nomogram was constructed and evaluated.RESULTS Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that vitamin A deficiency(VAD)during pregnancy and puerperium,family history of hypertension,maternal intestinal flora imbalance,eicosapentaenoic acid(EPA),and docosahexaenoic acid(DHA)were independent risk factors for postpartum depression in patients with pregnancy-induced hypertension(P<0.05).We constructed the nomogram model based on these five risk factors.The area under the curve,specificity,and sensitivity of the model in predicting postpartum depression in patients with pregnancy-induced hypertension was 0.867(95%confidence interval:0.828–0.935),0.676,and 0.889,respectively.The average absolute error was 0.037(Hosmer-Lemeshow testχ2=10.739,P=0.217).CONCLUSION VAD during pregnancy and puerperium,family history of hypertension,maternal intestinal flora imbalance,EPA,and DHA affect postpartum depression in patients with pregnancy-induced hypertension.
文摘Objective:We aimed to established normal uroflowmetric values and subsequently derived nomograms of _(max)imum flow rate(Q_(max))and average flow rate(Q_(avg))against voided volume(VV)in children aged 5-15 years at our institute.Methods:A total of 440 children underwent uroflowmetric evaluation with no history of urological,renal,psychiatric,or neurological disorder between 5 and 15 years of age.Each subject data regarding Q_(max),Q_(avg),VV,time to Q_(max),and flow time,as well as age,sex,height,and weight were recorded.Of the 440 children,around 300(68.18%)children could produce a normal flow rate at VV of more than 50 mL.Of the remaining 140(31.82%)children,50.00%voided less than 50 mL,and remaining 50.00%had abnormal voiding pattern,staccato or interrupted(21.43%each)and plateau or tower shaped(3.57%each).Cases were divided into two age groups(5-9 years and 10-15 years),and uroflowmetric analysis was done between boys and girls in both age groups to derive nomograms of Q_(avg) and Q_(max).Results:Q_(max) and Q_(avg) flow nomograms were plotted for boys and girls.Mean Q_(max) for boys was 16.68 mL/s and for girls 20.69 mL/s.The mean Q_(avg) values were 11.04 mL/s and 8.60 mL/s for girls and boys,respectively.The Q_(max) and Q_(avg) values were higher in girls.There were significant increases in flow rates with increasing age,body surface area,and VV in both sexes.Conclusions:Nomograms for Q_(max) and Q_(avg) may be a useful tool in evaluation of lower urinary tract disturbances in children.
文摘Objective:This study aims to develop prognostic nomograms based on inflammatory markers for hepatitis B virus(HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)patients.Methods:Between November 2003 and December 2017,1,350HCC patients who were HBV surface antigen(HBsAg)positive and underwent curative hepatectomy were retrospectively collected from two medical centers.
基金Supported by The Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province,China,No.LY18H030011.
文摘BACKGROUND Esophageal varices(EV)are the most fatal complication of chronic hepatitis B(CHB)related cirrhosis.The prognosis is poor,especially after the first upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage.AIM To construct nomograms to predict the risk and severity of EV in patients with CHB related cirrhosis.METHODS Between 2016 and 2018,the patients with CHB related cirrhosis were recruited and divided into a training or validation cohort at The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University.Clinical and ultrasonic parameters that were closely related to EV risk and severity were screened out by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses,and integrated into two nomograms,respectively.Both nomograms were internally and externally validated by calibration,concordance index(C-index),receiver operating characteristic curve,and decision curve analyses(DCA).RESULTS A total of 307 patients with CHB related cirrhosis were recruited.The independent risk factors for EV included Child-Pugh class[odds ratio(OR)=7.705,95%confidence interval(CI)=2.169-27.370,P=0.002],platelet count(OR=0.992,95%CI=0.984-1.000,P=0.044),splenic portal index(SPI)(OR=3.895,95%CI=1.630-9.308,P=0.002),and liver fibrosis index(LFI)(OR=3.603,95%CI=1.336-9.719,P=0.011);those of EV severity included Child-Pugh class(OR=5.436,95%CI=2.112-13.990,P<0.001),mean portal vein velocity(OR=1.479,95%CI=1.043-2.098,P=0.028),portal vein diameter(OR=1.397,95%CI=1.021-1.912,P=0.037),SPI(OR=1.463,95%CI=1.030-2.079,P=0.034),and LFI(OR=3.089,95%CI=1.442-6.617,P=0.004).Two nomograms(predicting EV risk and severity,respectively)were well-calibrated and had a favorable discriminative ability,with C-indexes of 0.916 and 0.846 in the training cohort,respectively,higher than those of other predictive indexes,like LFI(C-indexes=0.781 and 0.738),SPI(C-indexes=0.805 and 0.714),ratio of platelet count to spleen diameter(PSR)(C-indexes=0.822 and 0.726),King’s score(C-indexes=0.694 and 0.609),and Lok index(C-indexes=0.788 and 0.700).The areas under the curves(AUCs)of the two nomograms were 0.916 and 0.846 in the training cohort,respectively,higher than those of LFI(AUCs=0.781 and 0.738),SPI(AUCs=0.805 and 0.714),PSR(AUCs=0.822 and 0.726),King’s score(AUCs=0.694 and 0.609),and Lok index(AUCs=0.788 and 0.700).Better net benefits were shown in the DCA.The results were validated in the validation cohort.CONCLUSION Nomograms incorporating clinical and ultrasonic variables are efficient in noninvasively predicting the risk and severity of EV.
基金National Basic Research Program of China(973Program),No.2015CB554001National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.81472257 and No.81502022+7 种基金Natural Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars of Guangdong Province,No.2016A030306002Tip-top Scientific and Technical Innovative Youth Talents of Guangdong Special Support Program,No.2015TQ01R454Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province,No.2016A030310222 and No.2018A0303130303Science and Technology Program of Guangzhou,No.201506010099 and No.2014Y2-00160Science and Technology Program of Guangdong Province,No.2014A020215011Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Sun Yat-sen University),No.2015ykzd10 and No.16ykpy35Program of Introducing Talents of Discipline to UniversitiesNational Key Clinical Discipline
文摘BACKGROUND In recent decades, neoadjuvant therapy(NT) has been the standardized treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer(LARC). Approximately 8%-35% of patients with LARC who received NT were reported to have achieved a complete pathological response(pCR). If the pathological response(PR) can be accurately predicted, these patients may not need surgery. In addition, no response after NT implies that the tumor is destructive, resistant to both chemotherapy and radiotherapy, and prone to having a high metastatic potential. Therefore,developing accurate models to predict PR has great clinical significance and can help achieve individualized treatment in LARC patients.AIM To establish nomograms for predicting PR to different NT regimens based on pretreatment parameters for patients with LARC.METHODS Rectal cancer patients were identified from the database of The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University from January 2012 to December 2016. Logistic regression and nomograms were developed to predict the probability of pCR and good downstaging to ypT0-2N0M0(ypTNM 0-I), respectively, based on pretreatment parameters for all LARC patients. Nomograms were also developed for three NT regimens(capecitabine/deGramont-RT, mFOLFOX6, and m FOLFOX6-RT) to predict pCR probability.RESULTS Four hundred and three patients were included in this study; 72(17.9%) had pCR at the final pathology report, and 177(43.9%) achieved good downstaging to ypT0-2N0M0(ypTNM 0-I). The nomogram for predicting pCR probability showed that NT regimens, tumor differentiation, mesorectal fascia(MRF) status,and tumor length significantly influenced pCR probability. When predicting the probability of good downstaging, tumor differentiation, MRF status, and clinical T stage were the significant factors. Nomograms were developed based on NT regimens. For the capecitabine/de Gramont-RT group, the multivariate analysis showed that the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio(NLR) was the only significant factor, thus we could not develop a nomogram for this regimen. For the m FOLFOX6-RT group, the analysis showed that the significant factors were tumor length and MRF status; and for the mFOLFOX6 group, the significant factors were tumor length and tumor differentiation.CONCLUSION We established accurate nomograms for predicting the PR to preoperative NT regimens based on pretreatment parameters for LARC patients.
文摘BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer is a common digestive cancer worldwide.As a comprehensive treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer(LARC),neoadjuvant therapy(NT)has been increasingly used as the standard treatment for clinical stage II/III rectal cancer.However,few patients achieve a complete pathological response,and most patients require surgical resection and adjuvant therapy.Therefore,identifying risk factors and developing accurate models to predict the prognosis of LARC patients are of great clinical significance.AIM To establish effective prognostic nomograms and risk score prediction models to predict overall survival(OS)and disease-free survival(DFS)for LARC treated with NT.METHODS Nomograms and risk factor score prediction models were based on patients who received NT at the Cancer Hospital from 2015 to 2017.The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model were utilized to screen for prognostic risk factors,which were validated by the Cox regression method.Assessment of the performance of the two prediction models was conducted using receiver operating characteristic curves,and that of the two nomograms was conducted by calculating the concordance index(C-index)and calibration curves.The results were validated in a cohort of 65 patients from 2015 to 2017.RESULTS Seven features were significantly associated with OS and were included in the OS prediction nomogram and prediction model:Vascular_tumors_bolt,cancer nodules,yN,body mass index,matchmouth distance from the edge,nerve aggression and postoperative carcinoembryonic antigen.The nomogram showed good predictive value for OS,with a C-index of 0.91(95%CI:0.85,0.97)and good calibration.In the validation cohort,the C-index was 0.69(95%CI:0.53,0.84).The risk factor prediction model showed good predictive value.The areas under the curve for 3-and 5-year survival were 0.811 and 0.782.The nomogram for predicting DFS included ypTNM and nerve aggression and showed good calibration and a C-index of 0.77(95%CI:0.69,0.85).In the validation cohort,the C-index was 0.71(95%CI:0.61,0.81).The prediction model for DFS also had good predictive value,with an AUC for 3-year survival of 0.784 and an AUC for 5-year survival of 0.754.CONCLUSION We established accurate nomograms and prediction models for predicting OS and DFS in patients with LARC after undergoing NT.
基金supported by the CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences (CIFMS) (No. 2016-I2M-1-001)
文摘Objective: To investigate the prognostic value of pretreatment human papillomavirus(HPV) viral load for cervical cancer, and to develop nomograms based on HPV load and other clinicopathological factors for long-term survival.Methods: We conducted a prospective study on cervical squamous cell carcinoma(SCC) patients diagnosed between January 2003 and December 2008. Cervical samples were tested for HPV viral load by the Hybrid Capture II(HCII) assay before treatment and 6 months after treatment. Clinical characteristics and follow-up information were also collected. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards model was used to adjust covariates in both the radical hysterectomy(RH) treatment group and concurrent chemoradiotherapy(CCRT) treatment group to identify relevant covariates, and then nomograms were constructed and used for internal validation.Results: A total of 520 SCC patients enrolled in this study with a median follow-up of 127 months, 360 patients received RH, whereas 160 patients received CCRT. The median HPV viral load in RH and CCRT groups was356.10 and 294.29, respectively. Tumor size was positively correlated with high pretreatment HPV load in both groups. In CCRT group, the advanced International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics(FIGO) stage and enlarged retroperitoneal lymph node status determined by computed tomography(LNSCT) were correlated with low HPV load group. Initial HPV viral load, FIGO stage and lymph node metastasis were prognostic factors for RH group, whereas HPV viral load, squamous cell carcinoma antigen(SCC-Ag) level and LNSCT were identified as prognostic factors for CCRT group. Nomograms incorporating these predictors for 10-year progression-free survival(PFS) were constructed [concordance index(C-index): 0.756, 0.749].Conclusions: A low pretreatment HPV viral load is an independent prognostic factor for poor prognosis of cervical SCC and is related to other clinicopathological factors. The survival nomogram based on HPV viral load could predict the long-term prognosis.
文摘Objectives:The study aimed to evaluate quality of nephrolithometric nomograms to predict stone-free rates(SFRs)and complication rates(CRs)in case of minimally invasive percutaneous nephrolithotomy(PNL).In the last decade,nomograms have been introduced to estimate the SFRs and CRs of PNL.However,no data are available regarding their reliability in case of utilization of miniaturized devices.Herein we present a prospective multicentric study to evaluate reliability of Guy’s stone score(GSS),the stone size,tract length,obstruction,number of involved calyces,and essence of stone(S.T.O.N.E.)nephrolithometry score and Clinical Research Office of the Endourological Society(CROES)score in patients treated with minimally invasive PNL.Methods:We evaluated SFRs and CRs of 222 adult patients treated with miniaturized PNL.Patients were considered stone-free if no residual fragments of any size at post-operative unenhanced computed tomography scan.Patients demographics,SFRs,and CRs were reported and analyzed.Performances of nomograms were evaluated with the area under the curve(AUC).Results:We included 222 patients,the AUCs of GSS,CROES score,and S.T.O.N.E.nephrolithometry score were 0.69(95%confidence interval[CI]0.61-0.78),0.64(95%CI 0.56-0.73),and 0.62(95%CI 0.52-0.71),respectively.Regarding SFRs,at multivariate binomial logistic regression,only the GSS had significance with an odds ratio of 0.53(95%CI 0.31e0.95,p=0.04).We did not find significant correlation with complications,with only a trend for GSS.Conclusion:This is the first study evaluating nomograms in miniaturized PNL.They still show good reliability;however,our data showed lower performances compared to standard PNL.We emphasize the need of further studies to confirm this trend.A dedicated nomogram for minimally invasive PNL may be necessary.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.81702270the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong,No.2015A030313827The Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University Clinical Research Program,No.LCYJ2018C012
文摘BACKGROUND There are few effective tools to predict survival in patients with invasive intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas.AIM To develop comprehensive nomograms to individually estimate the survival outcome of patients with invasive intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas.METHODS Data of 1219 patients with invasive intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms after resection were extracted from the Surveillance,Epidemiology,and End Results database,and randomly divided into the training(n=853)and the validation(n=366)cohorts.Based on the Cox regression model,nomograms were constructed to predict overall survival and cancer-specific survival for an individual patient.The performance of the nomograms was measured according to discrimination,calibration,and clinical utility.Moreover,we compared the predictive accuracy of the nomograms with that of the traditional staging system.RESULTS In the training cohort,age,marital status,histological type,T stage,N stage,M stage,and chemotherapy were selected to construct nomograms.Compared with the American Joint Committee on Cancer 7th staging system,the nomograms were generally more discriminative.The nomograms passed the calibration steps by showing high consistency between actual probability and nomogram prediction.Categorial net classification improvements and integrated discrimination improvements suggested that the predictive accuracy of the nomograms exceeded that of the American Joint Committee on Cancer staging system.With respect to decision curve analyses,the nomograms exhibited more preferable net benefit gains than the staging system across a wide range of threshold probabilities.CONCLUSION The nomograms show improved predictive accuracy,discrimination capability,and clinical utility,which can be used as reliable tools for risk classification and treatment recommendations.
基金This work was supported by the Military Medicine Research Projects of Xijing Hospital(XJZT18D05).
文摘This study aimed to establish nomograms to preoperatively predict the possibility of testicular salvage(TS)in patients with testicular torsion.The clinical data of 204 patients with testicular torsion diagnosed at Xijing Hospital and Tangdu Hospital(Xi'an,China)between August 2008 and November 2019 were retrospectively analyzed.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to determine the independent predictors of TS.Based on multivariate regression coefficients,nomograms to predict possibility of TS were established.The predictive ability of the nomograms was internally validated by receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves and calibration plots.The duration of symptoms ranged from 2 h to 1 month,with a median of 3.5 days.Thirty(14.7%)patients underwent surgical reduction and contralateral orchiopexy,while the remaining 174(85.3%)underwent orchiectomy and contralateral orchiopexy.Finally,long symptom duration was an independent risk predictor for TS,while visible intratesticular blood flow and homogeneous testicular echotexture under color Doppler ultrasound were independent protective predictors.Internal validation showed that the nomograms,which were established by integrating these three predictive factors,had good discrimination ability in predicting the possibility of TS(areas under the ROC curves were 0.851 and 0.828,respectively).The calibration plots showed good agreement between the nomogram-predicted possibility of TS and the actual situation.In conclusion,this brief preoperative prediction tool will help clinicians to quickly determine the urgency of surgical exploration.
文摘BACKGROUND There is no unified standard to predict postoperative survival in patients with tongue squamous cell carcinoma(TSCC),hence the urgency to develop a model to accurately predict the prognosis of these patients.AIM To develop and validate nomograms for predicting overall survival(OS)and cancer-specific survival(CSS)of patients with TSCC.METHODS A cohort of 3454 patients with TSCC from the Surveillance,Epidemiology,and End Results(SEER)database was used to develop nomograms;another independent cohort of 203 patients with TSCC from the Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery,First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine,was used for external validation.Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify useful variables for the development of nomograms.The calibration curve,area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC)analysis,concordance index(C-index),net reclassification index(NRI),and decision curve analysis(DCA)were used to assess the calibration,discrimination ability,and clinical utility of the nomograms.RESULTS Eight variables were selected and used to develop nomograms for patients with TSCC.The Cindex(0.741 and 0.757 for OS and CSS in the training cohort and 0.800 and 0.830 in the validation cohort,respectively)and AUC indicated that the discrimination abilities of these nomograms were acceptable.The calibration curves of OS and CSS indicated that the predicted and actual values were consistent in both the training and validation cohorts.The NRI values(training cohort:0.493 and 0.482 for 3-and 5-year OS and 0.424 and 0.402 for 3-and 5-year CSS;validation cohort:0.635 and 0.750 for 3-and 5-year OS and 0.354 and 0.608 for 3-and 5-year CSS,respectively)and DCA results indicated that the nomograms were significantly better than the tumor-node-metastasis staging system in predicting the prognosis of patients with TSCC.CONCLUSION Our nomograms can accurately predict patient prognoses and assist clinicians in improving decision-making concerning patients with TSCC in clinical practice.
文摘BACKGROUND Patients with pathological stages T1N2-3(pT1N2-3)and pT3N0 gastric cancer(GC)have not been routinely included in the target population for postoperative chemotherapy according to the Japanese Gastric Cancer Treatment Guideline,and their prognosis is significantly different.AIM To identify the high-risk patients after radical surgery by analyzing biomarkers and clinicopathological features and construct prognostic models for them.METHODS A total of 459 patients with pT1N2-3/pT3N0 GC were retrospectively selected for the study.The Chi-square test was used to analyze the differences in the clinicopathological features between the pT1N2-3 and pT3N0 groups.The Kaplan–Meier analysis and log-rank test were used to analyze overall survival(OS).The independent risk factors for patient prognosis were analyzed by univariate and multivariate analyses based on the Cox proportional hazards regression model.The cutoff values of continuous variables were identified by receiver operating characteristic curve.The nomogram models were constructed with R studio.RESULTS There was no statistically significant difference in OS between the pT1N2-3 and pT3N0 groups(P=0.374).Prealbumin(P=0.040),carcino-embryonic antigen(CEA)(P=0.021),and metastatic lymph node ratio(mLNR)(P=0.035)were independent risk factors for prognosis in the pT1N2-3 group.Age(P=0.039),body mass index(BMI)(P=0.002),and gastrectomy(P<0.001)were independent risk factors for prognosis in the pT3N0 group.The area under the curve values of the nomogram models for predicting the 5-year prognosis of the pT1N2-3 group and pT3N0 group were 0.765 and 0.699,respectively.CONCLUSION Nomogram model combining prealbumin,CEA,and mLNR levels can be used to predict the prognosis of pT1N2-3 GC.Nomogram model combining age,BMI,and gastrectomy can be used to predict the prognosis of pT3N0 GC.
基金Supported by Scientific and Technological Innovation Joint Capital Projects of Fujian Province,No.2016Y9031the General Project of Miaopu Scientific Research Fund of Fujian Medical University,No.2015MP021+2 种基金Youth Project of Fujian Provincial Health and Family Planning Commission,No.2016-1-41Fujian Province Medical Innovation Project,Chinese Physicians Association Young Physician Respiratory Research Fund,No.2015-CXB-16Fujian Science and Technology Innovation Joint Fund Project,No.2017Y9004
文摘BACKGROUND The incidence of proximal gastric cancer(GC)is increasing,and methods for the prediction of the long-term survival of proximal GC patients have not been well established.AIM To develop nomograms for the prediction of long-term survival among proximal GC patients.METHODS Between January 2007 and June 2013,we prospectively collected and retrospectively analyzed the medical records of 746 patients with proximal GC,who were divided into a training set(n=560,75%)and a validation set(n=186,25%).A Cox regression analysis was used to identify the preoperative and postoperative risk factors for overall survival(OS).RESULTS Among the 746 patients examined,the 3-and 5-year OS rates were 66.1%and 58.4%,respectively.In the training set,preoperative T stage(cT),N stage(cN),CA19-9,tumor size,ASA core,and 3-to 6-mo weight loss were incorporated into the preoperative nomogram to predict the OS.In addition to these variables,lymphatic vascular infiltration(LVI),postoperative tumor size,T stage,N stage,blood transfusions,and complications were incorporated into the postoperative nomogram.All calibration curves used to determine the OS probability fit well.In the training set,the preoperative nomogram achieved a C-index of 0.751[95%confidence interval(CI):0.732-0.770]in predicting OS and accurately stratified the patients into four prognostic subgroups(5-year OS rates:86.8%,73.0%,43.72%,and 20.9%,P<0.001).The postoperative nomogram had a C-index of 0.758 in predicting OS and accurately stratified the patients into four prognostic subgroups(5-year OS rates:82.6%,74.3%,45.9%,and 18.9%,P<0.001).CONCLUSION The nomograms accurately predicted the pre-and postoperative long-term survival of proximal GC patients.
