In the context of global warming,it is anticipated that both the intensity and the frequency of future global extreme high precipitation(EHP)and extreme high temperature(EHT)events will increase.To evaluate the future...In the context of global warming,it is anticipated that both the intensity and the frequency of future global extreme high precipitation(EHP)and extreme high temperature(EHT)events will increase.To evaluate the future extreme climate changes in the Asian arid region and Tibetan Plateau,this study applied the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP-CMIP6)to assess the changes in EHP(Rx5d and R95pTOT)and EHT(TX90p and TXx)under different emission scenarios in the 21st century.Findings suggest that both the frequency and the intensity of the extreme indices will increase,exhibiting accelerated growth under higher emission scenarios,particularly under the SSP5-8.5 emission scenario.It is suggested that the growth of EHT and EHP in the early subperiod of the 21st century(2026-2045)will be relatively moderate,with small differences between different emission scenarios.However,by the middle subperiod of the 21st century(2041-2060),the differences between different emission scenarios will become larger than the 2035s and the growth will become more intense.In western central Asia,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase by 9.7%-14.2%(13.3%-24.7%),1.3℃-1.7℃(1.6℃-2.7℃),6.5%-8.9%(8.2%-8.8%),and 18.1%-27.0%(25.6%-30.0%)by the early(middle)subperiod;in eastern central Asia,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase 8.1%-12.0%(11.3%-21.1%),1.4℃-1.8℃(1.9℃-2.9℃),7.4%-9.7%(10.4%-13.8%),and 20.2%-29.3%(32.0%-40.8%)by the early(middle)subperiod;and over the Tibetan Plateau,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase 12.5%-17.4%(17.0%-31.0%),1.2℃-1.5℃(1.6℃-2.5℃),7.2%-10.0%(9.9%-15.0%),and 26.6%-33.1%(36.1%-55.3%)by the early(middle)subperiod.展开更多
基金supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program[grant number 2019QZKK0101]。
文摘In the context of global warming,it is anticipated that both the intensity and the frequency of future global extreme high precipitation(EHP)and extreme high temperature(EHT)events will increase.To evaluate the future extreme climate changes in the Asian arid region and Tibetan Plateau,this study applied the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP-CMIP6)to assess the changes in EHP(Rx5d and R95pTOT)and EHT(TX90p and TXx)under different emission scenarios in the 21st century.Findings suggest that both the frequency and the intensity of the extreme indices will increase,exhibiting accelerated growth under higher emission scenarios,particularly under the SSP5-8.5 emission scenario.It is suggested that the growth of EHT and EHP in the early subperiod of the 21st century(2026-2045)will be relatively moderate,with small differences between different emission scenarios.However,by the middle subperiod of the 21st century(2041-2060),the differences between different emission scenarios will become larger than the 2035s and the growth will become more intense.In western central Asia,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase by 9.7%-14.2%(13.3%-24.7%),1.3℃-1.7℃(1.6℃-2.7℃),6.5%-8.9%(8.2%-8.8%),and 18.1%-27.0%(25.6%-30.0%)by the early(middle)subperiod;in eastern central Asia,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase 8.1%-12.0%(11.3%-21.1%),1.4℃-1.8℃(1.9℃-2.9℃),7.4%-9.7%(10.4%-13.8%),and 20.2%-29.3%(32.0%-40.8%)by the early(middle)subperiod;and over the Tibetan Plateau,TX90p,TXx,Rx5d,and R95pTOT increase 12.5%-17.4%(17.0%-31.0%),1.2℃-1.5℃(1.6℃-2.5℃),7.2%-10.0%(9.9%-15.0%),and 26.6%-33.1%(36.1%-55.3%)by the early(middle)subperiod.
