Mesopelagic fish(meso-fish)are central species within the Southern Ocean(SO).However,their ecosystem role and adaptive capacity to climate change are rarely integrated into protected areas assessments.This is a pity g...Mesopelagic fish(meso-fish)are central species within the Southern Ocean(SO).However,their ecosystem role and adaptive capacity to climate change are rarely integrated into protected areas assessments.This is a pity given their importance as crucial prey and predators in food webs,coupled with the impacts of climate change.Here,we estimate the habitat distribution of nine meso-fish using an ensemble model approach(MAXENT,random forest,and boosted regression tree).Four climate model simulations were used to project their distribution under two representative concentration pathways(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)for short-term(2006–2055)and long-term(2050–2099)periods.In addition,we assess the ecological representativeness of protected areas under climate change scenarios using meso-fish as indicator species.Our models show that all species shift poleward in the future.Lanternfishes(family Myctophidae)are predicted to migrate poleward more than other families(Paralepididae,Nototheniidae,Bathylagidae,and Gonostomatidae).In comparison,lanternfishes were projected to increase habitat area in the eastern SO but lose area in the western SO;the opposite was projected for species in other families.Important areas(IAs)of meso-fish are mainly distributed near the Antarctic Peninsula and East Antarctica.Negotiated protected area cover 23% of IAs at present and 38%of IAs in the future(RCP8.5,long-term future).Many IAs of meso-fish still need to be included in protected areas,such as the Prydz Bay and the seas around the Antarctic Peninsula.Our results provide a framework for evaluating protected areas incorporating climate change adaptation strategies for protected areas management.展开更多
基金supported by the research project“Impact and Response of Antarctic Seas to Climate Change”(IRASCC2020-2022-No.01-02-05C)from the Chinese Arctic and Antarctic Administration,Ministry of Natural Resources of the People’s Republic of China.
文摘Mesopelagic fish(meso-fish)are central species within the Southern Ocean(SO).However,their ecosystem role and adaptive capacity to climate change are rarely integrated into protected areas assessments.This is a pity given their importance as crucial prey and predators in food webs,coupled with the impacts of climate change.Here,we estimate the habitat distribution of nine meso-fish using an ensemble model approach(MAXENT,random forest,and boosted regression tree).Four climate model simulations were used to project their distribution under two representative concentration pathways(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)for short-term(2006–2055)and long-term(2050–2099)periods.In addition,we assess the ecological representativeness of protected areas under climate change scenarios using meso-fish as indicator species.Our models show that all species shift poleward in the future.Lanternfishes(family Myctophidae)are predicted to migrate poleward more than other families(Paralepididae,Nototheniidae,Bathylagidae,and Gonostomatidae).In comparison,lanternfishes were projected to increase habitat area in the eastern SO but lose area in the western SO;the opposite was projected for species in other families.Important areas(IAs)of meso-fish are mainly distributed near the Antarctic Peninsula and East Antarctica.Negotiated protected area cover 23% of IAs at present and 38%of IAs in the future(RCP8.5,long-term future).Many IAs of meso-fish still need to be included in protected areas,such as the Prydz Bay and the seas around the Antarctic Peninsula.Our results provide a framework for evaluating protected areas incorporating climate change adaptation strategies for protected areas management.
