Southwest China(SWC)is one of the major grain-producing areas in China,and the surface air temperature(SAT)during autumn has a substantial influence on grain production and planting.It is therefore important to unders...Southwest China(SWC)is one of the major grain-producing areas in China,and the surface air temperature(SAT)during autumn has a substantial influence on grain production and planting.It is therefore important to understand temporal changes in the SAT over SWC(SWC-SAT).Our analysis of observational and reanalysis datasets shows that the autumn SWC-SAT exhibits significant multidecadal variability.A significantly strong positive correlation also exists between the autumn SWC-SAT and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation(AMO)time series(correlation coefficient of 0.85).These results suggest that the AMO is a remote driver of multidecadal variability in the autumn SWC-SAT.Further analyses show that the North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA)associated with the AMO modulate the multidecadal variability of the autumn SWC-SAT through triggering the Africa-Asia multidecadal teleconnection(AAMT)pattern.Specifically,the AAMT corresponds to geopotential height anomalies over SWC,which adjust the local thickness of the air column and thereby induce multidecadal variability of the autumn SWC-SAT.This potential mechanism,derived from observational and reanalysis datasets,was verified by using a linear barotropic model and the Community Atmosphere Model version 4.Our results from combining observations and numerical modeling simulations indicate that the North Atlantic SSTA may act as a key pacemaker for the multidecadal SAT variability over SWC.展开更多
Compound extreme climate events involving multiple meteorological elements usually have a more severe impact on the environment and human health than single-element extreme events.However,the current definition of mul...Compound extreme climate events involving multiple meteorological elements usually have a more severe impact on the environment and human health than single-element extreme events.However,the current definition of multi-element compound extreme events is proposed from meteorological and statistical perspectives,without integrating health data,making the conclusions less practical for guiding health risk prevention.This study identified the threshold for hot–dry compound extreme events with high mortality risks(HMHDs)in China,using daily mortality data and temperature–humidity data from 278 districts or counties,and explored the interdecadal change and driving mechanisms of HMHD frequency in China from 1979 to 2021.The results show a significant increase in annual HMHD frequency in China after 2000,mainly occurring in summer(June,July,August).The northwestern to western regions of China(Xinjiang,Inner Mongolia,Gansu),and from the southwestern to the areas south of the Yangtze River(Sichuan,Hubei,Hunan,Jiangxi,Fujian,Guizhou,Yunnan),experience an increase of>10 days.The authors find that the interdecadal abrupt change in HMHD frequency can be attributed to the shift of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation from a negative to a positive phase by affecting the Silk Road teleconnection.展开更多
The importance of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation(IPO)in influencing zonally asymmetric changes in Antarctic surface air temperature(SAT)has been established.However,prev...The importance of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation(IPO)in influencing zonally asymmetric changes in Antarctic surface air temperature(SAT)has been established.However,previous studies have primarily concentrated on examining the combined impact of the contrasting phases of the AMO and IPO,which have been dominant since the advent of satellite observations in 1979.This study utilizes long-term reanalysis data to investigate the impact of four combinations of+AMO+IPO,–AMO–IPO,+AMO–IPO,and–AMO+IPO on Antarctic SAT over the past 115 years.The+AMO phase is characterized by a spatial mean temperature amplitude of up to 0.5℃over the North Atlantic Ocean,accompanied by positive sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in the tropical eastern Pacific and negative SST anomalies in the extratropical-mid-latitude western Pacific,which are indicative of the+IPO phase.The Antarctic SAT exhibits contrasting spatial patterns during the+AMO+IPO and+AMO–IPO periods.However,during the–AMO+IPO period,apart from the Antarctic Peninsula and the vicinity of the Weddell Sea,the entire Antarctic region experiences a warming trend.The most pronounced signal in the SAT anomalies is observed during the austral autumn,whereas the combination of–AMO and–IPO exhibits the smallest magnitude across all the combinations.The wavetrain excited by the SST anomalies associated with the AMO and IPO induces upper-level and surface atmospheric circulation anomalies,which alter the SAT anomalies.Furthermore,downward longwave radiation anomalies related to anomalous cloud cover play a crucial role.In the future,if the phases of AMO and IPO were to reverse(AMO transitioning to a negative phase and IPO transitioning to a positive phase),Antarctica could potentially face more pronounced warming and accelerated melting compared to the current observations.展开更多
In this paper,we investigate the influence of the winter NAO on the multidecadal variability of winter East Asian surface air temperature(EASAT)and EASAT decadal prediction.The observational analysis shows that the wi...In this paper,we investigate the influence of the winter NAO on the multidecadal variability of winter East Asian surface air temperature(EASAT)and EASAT decadal prediction.The observational analysis shows that the winter EASAT and East Asian minimum SAT(EAmSAT)display strong in-phase fluctuations and a significant 60-80-year multidecadal variability,apart from a long-term warming trend.The winter EASAT experienced a decreasing trend in the last two decades,which is consistent with the occurrence of extremely cold events in East Asia winters in recent years.The winter NAO leads the detrended winter EASAT by 12-18 years with the greatest significant positive correlation at the lead time of 15 years.Further analysis shows that ENSO may affect winter EASAT interannual variability,but does not affect the robust lead relationship between the winter NAO and EASAT.We present the coupled oceanic-atmospheric bridge(COAB)mechanism of the NAO influences on winter EASAT multidecadal variability through its accumulated delayed effect of~15 years on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)and Africa-Asia multidecadal teleconnection(AAMT)pattern.An NAO-based linear model for predicting winter decadal EASAT is constructed on the principle of the COAB mechanism,with good hindcast performance.The winter EASAT for 2020-34 is predicted to keep on fluctuating downward until~2025,implying a high probability of occurrence of extremely cold events in coming winters in East Asia,followed by a sudden turn towards sharp warming.The predicted 2020/21 winter EASAT is almost the same as the 2019/20 winter.展开更多
Previous studies have shown that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation （AMO） can play an important role in modulating the variabilityoflndian summer monsoon rainfall （ISMR） over a 50-60-yr timescale. A significant...Previous studies have shown that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation （AMO） can play an important role in modulating the variabilityoflndian summer monsoon rainfall （ISMR） over a 50-60-yr timescale. A significant positive correlation between the AMO and ISMR is found both in observations and models. However, instrumental records show that the relationship becomes non-significant or even of opposite sign after the mid-1990s, suggesting a weakening of the AMO-ISMR connection. The mechanism for the breakdown of the AMO-ISMR connection is investigated in the present work, and the results suggest that a substantial warming in the Indian-tropical western Pacific Ocean plays a role. The warming weakens the meridional gradient of tropospheric temperature between Eurasia and the indian Ocean, and reduces the meridional sea level pressure gradient between the Indian Subcontinent and Indian Ocean, weakening the Indian summer monsoon. Thus, warming in the Indian-tropical western Pacific Ocean seems responsible for the weakened connection between the AMO and ISM.展开更多
Based on ensemble experiments with three atmospheric general circulation models(AGCMs), this study investigates the role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) in shaping the summer nonuniform warming over the ...Based on ensemble experiments with three atmospheric general circulation models(AGCMs), this study investigates the role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) in shaping the summer nonuniform warming over the Eurasian continent since the mid-1990 s. The results validate that the positive-phase AMO can indeed cause nonuniform warming,with predominant amplified warming over Europe–West Asia and Northeast Asia, but with much weaker warming over Central Asia. The underlying mechanism is then diagnosed from the perspective that the boundary forcing modulates the intrinsic atmospheric variability. The results highlight the role of the Silk Road Pattern(SRP), an intrinsic teleconnection pattern across the subtropical Eurasian continent propagating along the Asian jet. The SRP can not only be identified from the AGCM control experiments with the climatological sea surface temperature(SST), but can also be simulated by the AMO-related SST anomaly(SSTA) forcing. Furthermore, diagnostic linear baroclinic model experiments are conducted, and the results suggest that the SRP can be triggered by the AMO-related tropical diabatic heating. The AMO-triggered SRP-like responses feature anticyclonic circulations over Europe–West Asia and Northeast Asia, but cyclonic circulation over Central Asia. These responses cause increased warm advection towards Europe–West Asia and Northeast Asia, reduced precipitation and cloud cover, and then increased downward shortwave radiation. This increased warm advection and increased downward shortwave radiation together cause amplified warming in Europe–West Asia and Northeast Asia. The situation is opposite for Central Asia.展开更多
This study focuses on the climatic impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation （AMO） as a mode of internal vari- ability. Given the difficulties involved in excluding the effects of external forcing from intern...This study focuses on the climatic impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation （AMO） as a mode of internal vari- ability. Given the difficulties involved in excluding the effects of external forcing from internal variation, i.e., owing to the short record length of instrumental observations and historical simulations, we assess and compare the AMO and its related climatic impacts both in observations and in the ＂Pre-industrial＂ experiments of models participating in CMIP5. First, we evaluate the skill of the 25 CMIP5 models＇ ＂Historical＂ simulations in simulating the observational AMO, and find there is generally a considerable range of skill among them in this regard. Six of the models with higher skill relative to the other models are selected to investigate the AMO-related climate impacts, and it is found that their ＂Pre-industrial＂ simulations capture the essential features of the AMO. A positive AMO favors warmer surface temperature around the North Atlantic, and the Atlantic ITCZ shifts northward leading to more rainfall in the Sahel and less rainfall in Brazil. Furthermore, the results confirm the existence of a teleconnection between the AMO and East Asian surface temperature, as well as the late withdrawal of the Indian summer monsoon, during positive AMO phases. These connections could be mainly caused by internal climate variability. Opposite patterns are true for the negative phase of the AMO.展开更多
A simple air-sea coupled model, the atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM） of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction coupled to a mixed-layer slab ocean model, is employed to investigate the impact ...A simple air-sea coupled model, the atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM） of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction coupled to a mixed-layer slab ocean model, is employed to investigate the impact of air-sea coupling on the signals of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation （AMO）. A regional coupling strategy is applied, in which coupling is switched off in the extratropical North Atlantic Ocean but switched on in the open oceans elsewhere. The coupled model is forced with warm-phase AMO SST anomalies, and the modeled responses are compared with those from parallel uncoupled AGCM experiments with the same SST forcing. The results suggest that the regionally coupled responses not only resemble the AGCM simulation, but also have a stronger intensity. In comparison, the coupled responses bear greater similarity to the observational composite anomaly. Thus, air-sea coupling enhances the responses of the East Asian winter climate to the AMO. To determine the mechanism responsible for the coupling amplification, an additional set of AGCM experiments, forced with the AMO-induced tropical SST anomalies, is conducted. The SST anomalies are extracted from the simulated AMO-induced SST response in the regionally coupled model. The results suggest that the SST anomalies contribute to the coupling amplification. Thus, tropical air-sea coupling feedback tends to enhance the responses of the East Asian winter climate to the AMO.展开更多
The modulation of winter intraseasonal variability(ISV)by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)is investigated through three sets of reanalysis data and numerical experiments with the NCEP’s atmospheric general ...The modulation of winter intraseasonal variability(ISV)by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)is investigated through three sets of reanalysis data and numerical experiments with the NCEP’s atmospheric general circulation model(AGCM).Results show that the positive phase of the AMO tends to intensify ISV activity over the northern Atlantic and shift ISV activity over the Ural Mountains toward the south,causing weakened ISV activity at 200 hPa in the north to the Urals and intensified activity in the south.The modulation of ISV activity by the AMO over the Urals is then explored through comparison of the composite evolution of anomalous ISV cases for the different AMO phases.Fewer ISV cases are found in the AMO positive phase than the negative phase,but no substantial difference in the temporal evolution of anomalous ISV events between the two opposing phases of the AMO.Thus,the AMO exerts its modulation through influencing the occurrence frequency of ISV events,rather than their development or evolution processes.A similar result is seen in the AGCM sensitivity experiments.展开更多
Based on observations and Coupled Model lntercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） results, multidecadal variations and trends in annual mean surface air temperature anomalies （SATa） at global, hemispheric, and hemis...Based on observations and Coupled Model lntercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） results, multidecadal variations and trends in annual mean surface air temperature anomalies （SATa） at global, hemispheric, and hemispheric land and ocean scales in the past and under the future scenarios of two representative concentration pathways （RCPs） are analyzed. Fifteen models are selected based on their performances in capturing the temporal variability, long-term trend, multidecadal variations, and trends in global annual mean SATa. Observational data analysis shows that the multidecadal variations in annual mean SATa of the land and ocean in the northern hemisphere （NH） and of the ocean in the southern hemisphere （SH） are similar to those of the global mean, showing an increase during the 1900-1944 and 1971-2000 periods, and flattening or even cooling during the 1945-1970 and 2001-2013 periods. These observed characteristics are basically reproduced by the models. However, SATa over SH land show an increase during the 1945-1970 period, which differs from the other hemispheric scales, and this feature is not captured well by the models. For the recent hiatus period （2001-2013）, the projected trends of BCC-CSM1-1-m, CMCC-CM, GFDL-ESM2M, and NorESM1-ME at the global and hemispheric scales are closest to the observations based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, suggesting that these four models have better projection capability in SATa. Because these four models are better at simulating and projecting the multidecadal trends of SATa, they are selected to analyze future SATa variations at the global and hemispheric scales during the 2006-2099 period. The selected multi-model ensemble （MME） projected trends in annual mean SATa for the globe, NH, and SH under RCP4.5 （RCP8.5） are 0.17 （0.29） ℃, 0.22 （0.36） ℃, and 0.11 （0.23） ℃-decade-1 in the 21st century, respectively. These values are significantly lower than the projections of CMIP5 MME without model selection.展开更多
The internal modes of the North Pacific can lead to climatic oscillations through ocean-atmosphere interactions and induce global climate responses.The best example is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, but this fails t...The internal modes of the North Pacific can lead to climatic oscillations through ocean-atmosphere interactions and induce global climate responses.The best example is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, but this fails to explain many climate phenomena. Here, another multidecadal variability over the North Pacific is described, found by analyzing reconstructed data covering the past 140 years. It is named the Pacific Multidecadal Oscillation （PMO）, with anomalously high/low SSTs over the northeastern Pacific, and a quasi-60-year cycle. Related to this low-frequency variability of SST, the global mean temperature and precipitation present significant interdecadal differences. More importantly, the PMO index leads the global mean surface air temperature and SST by one to three years. The Arctic Oscillation pattern and atmospheric circulations are shown to change substantially with the transition of the PMO mode from positive to negative phases. This multidecadal oscillation improves the prospect for a long-term forecast of the global warming trend, since the PMO bears a remarkable relationship with global temperature.展开更多
Early studies suggested that the Aleutian–Icelandic low seesaw(AIS) features multidecadal variation. In this study, the multidecadal modulation of the AIS and associated surface climate by the Atlantic Multidecadal O...Early studies suggested that the Aleutian–Icelandic low seesaw(AIS) features multidecadal variation. In this study, the multidecadal modulation of the AIS and associated surface climate by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) during late winter(February–March) is explored with observational data. It is shown that, in the cold phase of the AMO(AMO|-),a clear AIS is established, while this is not the case in the warm phase of the AMO(AMO|+). The surface climate over Eurasia is significantly influenced by the AMO’s modulation of the Aleutian low(AL). For example, the weak AL in AMO|-displays warmer surface temperatures over the entire Far East and along the Russian Arctic coast and into Northern Europe,but only over the Russian Far East in AMO|+. Similarly, precipitation decreases over central Europe with the weak AL in AMO|-, but decreases over northern Europe and increases over southern Europe in AMO|+.The mechanism underlying the influence of AMO|-on the AIS can be described as follows: AMO|-weakens the upward component of the Eliassen–Palm flux along the polar waveguide by reducing atmospheric blocking occurrence over the Euro–Atlantic sector, and hence drives an enhanced stratospheric polar vortex. With the intensified polar night jet, the wave trains originating over the central North Pacific can propagate horizontally through North America and extend into the North Atlantic, favoring an eastward-extended Pacific–North America–Atlantic pattern, and resulting in a significant AIS at the surface during late winter.展开更多
Currently available proxies were studied as networks for building reconstruction models of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Only proxies that would double the current record length (backwards in time from ...Currently available proxies were studied as networks for building reconstruction models of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Only proxies that would double the current record length (backwards in time from AD 1564) were included. We present two proxy networks and corresponding reconstruction (transfer) models, one for tree-growth based proxies only and another for multiproxies. Both of them show a useful match in timing as well as amplitude with the AMO. These model structures demonstrated reasonable model performance (overall r<sup>2</sup> = 0.45 - 0.36). The time stability of proxy-AMO relationships was also validated. The new models produced acceptable results in cross-calibration-verification (reduction of error and coefficient of efficiency statistics in 1856-1921 and 1922-1990 vary between 0.41 and 0.21). The spatial distribution of these data series indicate that proxies respond to an AMO-like climatic oscillation over much of the Northern Hemisphere.展开更多
We used the ocean reanalysis dataset SODA 2.2.4 to investigate the relationship between the interior branch of subtropical-tropical cells(STCs)in the Pacific Ocean and El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)over interdecad...We used the ocean reanalysis dataset SODA 2.2.4 to investigate the relationship between the interior branch of subtropical-tropical cells(STCs)in the Pacific Ocean and El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)over interdecadal timescales between 1930 and 2010,as well as the possible mechanisms involved.Interior transport within the upper pycnocline layers of STCs(InSTC)along 9°S(InSTC9s)shows a significant correlation of 0.54 with ENSO over the study period.However,there is an interdecadal shift in the relationship between InSTC along 9°N(InSTC9n)and ENSO.The correlation coefficient between InSTC9n and ENSO is not statistically significant between 1930 and 1965(PD1),but is as high as 0.68(significant at the 95% confidence level)between 1965 and 2010(PD2).Composite and regression analysis suggests that this shift may be caused by the relationship between InSTC 9 n and the tropical wind field.During PD1,InSTC9n was driven primarily by the local wind field outside equatorial region,with a relatively weak response to the equatorial wind related to ENSO.In contrast,during PD2,the wind field associated with InSTC 9 n showed a similar spatial distribution to that of ENSO within the equatorial region,indicating a close relationship between InSTC9n and ENSO.The wind stress curl associated with ENSO drives the anomalous InSTC9n in off-equatorial regions,whose signal can propagate westward in the form of Rossby wave and modulate the thermal structure of the tropical Pacific,favoring the development of ENSO.The possible connection between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)and interdecadal changes in the ENSO-InSTC9n relationship was also examined.There is a significant connection between the AMO and the interdecadal change in the relationship between ENSO and InSTC9n;however,the associated mechanism remains to be explored in future studies.展开更多
The Atlantic Multidedal Oscillation(AMO) is a prominent mode of sea surface temperature variability in the Atlantic and incurs significant global influence. Most coupled models failed to reproduce the observed 50–80-...The Atlantic Multidedal Oscillation(AMO) is a prominent mode of sea surface temperature variability in the Atlantic and incurs significant global influence. Most coupled models failed to reproduce the observed 50–80-year AMO, but were overwhelmed by a 10–30-year AMO. Here we show that the 50–80-year AMO and 10–30-year AMO represent two different AMO regimes. The key differences are:(1) the 50–80-year AMO involves transport of warm and saline Atlantic water into the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian(GIN)Seas prior to reaching its maximum positive phase, while such a transport is weak for the 10–30-year AMO;(2) the zonality of atmospheric variability associated with the 50–80 year AMO favors the transport of warm and saline water into the GIN Seas;(3) the disappearance of Pacific variability weakens the zonality of atmospheric variability and the transport of warm and saline water into the GIN Seas, leading to the weakening of the 50–80-year AMO. In contrast, the 10–30-year AMO does not show dependence on the variability in Pacific and in the GIN Seas and may be an Atlantic-intrinsic mode. Our results suggest that differentiating these AMO regimes and a better understanding of the cross-basin connections are essential to reconcile the current debate on the nature of AMO and hence to its reliable prediction, which is still lacking in most of coupled models.展开更多
The temperature variability over multidecadal and longer timescales(e.g., the cold epochs in the late 15 th, 17 th, and early 19 th centuries) is significant and dominant in the millennium-long, large-scale reconstruc...The temperature variability over multidecadal and longer timescales(e.g., the cold epochs in the late 15 th, 17 th, and early 19 th centuries) is significant and dominant in the millennium-long, large-scale reconstructions and model simulations;however, their temporal patterns in the reconstructed and simulated temperature series are not well understood and require a detailed assessment and comparison. Here, we compare the reconstructed and simulated temperature series for the Northern Hemisphere(NH) at multidecadal and longer-term timescales(>30 years) by evaluating their covariance, climate sensitivity and amplitude of temperature changes. We found that covariances between different reconstructions or between reconstructions and simulations are generally high for the whole period of 850–1999 CE, due to their similar long-term temporal patterns. However,covariances between different reconstructions or between reconstructions and simulations steadily decline as time series extends further back in time, becoming particularly small during Medieval times. This is related to the large uncetainties in the reconstructions caused by the decreased number of proxy records and sample duplication during the pre-instrumental periods.Reconstructions based solely on tree-ring data show higher skill than multiproxy reconstructions in capturing the amplitude of volcanic cooling simulated by models. Meanwhile, climate models have a shorter recovery(i.e., lag) in response to the cooling caused by volcanic eruptions and solar activity minima, implying the lack of some important feedback mechanisms between external forcing and internal climate processes in climate models. Amplitudes of temperature variations in the latest published tree-ring reconstructions are comparable to those of the multiproxy reconstructions. We found that the temperature difference between the Medieval Climate Anomaly(950–1250 CE) and the Little Ice Age(1450–1850 CE) is generally larger in proxybased reconstructions than in model simulations, but the reason is unclear.展开更多
Near-term climate projections are needed by policymakers; however, these projections are difficult because internally generated climate variations need to be considered. In this study, temperature change scenarios in ...Near-term climate projections are needed by policymakers; however, these projections are difficult because internally generated climate variations need to be considered. In this study, temperature change scenarios in the near-term period 2017-35 are projected at global and regional scales based on a refined multi-model ensemble approach that considers both the secular trend(ST) and multidecadal variability(MDV) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) simulations. The ST and MDV components are adaptively extracted from each model simulation by using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD) filter, reconstructed via the Bayesian model averaging(BMA) method for the historical period 1901-2005, and validated for 2006-16. In the simulations of the "medium" representative concentration pathways scenario during 2017-35, the MDV-modulated temperature change projected via the refined approach displays an increase of 0.44℃(90% uncertainty range from 0.30 to 0.58℃) for global land, 0.48℃(90% uncertainty range from 0.29 to 0.67℃) for the Northern Hemispheric land(NL), and 0.29℃(90% uncertainty range from 0.23 to 0.35℃) for the Southern Hemispheric land(SL). These increases are smaller than those projected by the conventional arithmetic mean approach. The MDV enhances the ST in 13 of 21 regions across the world. The largest MDV-modulated warming effect(46%) exists in central America. In contrast,the MDV counteracts the ST in NL, SL, and eight other regions, with the largest cooling effect(220%) in Alaska.展开更多
Subject Code:D02With the support by the National Natural Science Foundation of China,a collaborative study by the research group led by Prof.Yang Bao(杨保)from the Key Laboratory of Desert and Desertification,Northwes...Subject Code:D02With the support by the National Natural Science Foundation of China,a collaborative study by the research group led by Prof.Yang Bao(杨保)from the Key Laboratory of Desert and Desertification,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,and展开更多
In the context of global warming,escalating water cycles have led to a surge in drought frequency and severity.Yet,multidecadal fluctuations in drought and their multifaceted influencing factors remain inadequately un...In the context of global warming,escalating water cycles have led to a surge in drought frequency and severity.Yet,multidecadal fluctuations in drought and their multifaceted influencing factors remain inadequately understood.This study examined the multidecadal changes in drought characteristics(frequency,duration,and severity)and their geographical focal points within China's north-south transitional zone,the Qinling-Daba Mountains(QDM),from 1960 to 2017 using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI).In addition,a suite of eight scenarios,correlation analysis,and wavelet coherence were used to identify the meteorological and circulation factors that influenced drought characteristics.The results indicate the following:(1)From 1960 to 2017,the QDM experienced significant interdecadal variations in drought frequency,duration,and severity,the climate was relatively humid before the 1990s,but drought intensified thereafter.Specifically,the 1990s marked the period of the longest drought duration and greatest severity,while the years spanning 2010 to 2017 experienced the highest frequency of drought events.(2)Spatially,the Qinling Mountains,particularly the western Qinling Mountain,exhibited higher drought frequency,duration,and severity than the Daba Mountains.This disparity can be attributed to higher rates of temperature increase and precipitation decrease in the western Qinling Mountain.(3)Interdecadal variations in droughts in the QDM were directly influenced by the synergistic effects of interdecadal fluctuations in air temperature and precipitation.Circulation factors modulate temperature and precipitation through phase transitions,thereby affecting drought dynamics in the QDM.The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation emerges as the primary circulation factors influencing temperature changes,with a mid-1990s shift to a positive phase favoring warming.The East Asian Summer Monsoon and El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation are the main circulation factors affecting precipitation changes,with positive phase transitions associated with reduced precipitation,and vice versa for increased precipitation.展开更多
Observational analyses demonstrate that the Ural persistent positive height anomaly event(PAE) experienced a decadal increase around the year 2000, exhibiting a southward displacement afterward. These decadal variatio...Observational analyses demonstrate that the Ural persistent positive height anomaly event(PAE) experienced a decadal increase around the year 2000, exhibiting a southward displacement afterward. These decadal variations are related to a large-scale circulation shift over the Eurasian Continent. The effects of underlying sea ice and sea surface temperature(SST) anomalies on the Ural PAE and the related atmospheric circulation were explored by Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP) experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and by sensitivity experiments using the Atmospheric General Circulation Model(AGCM). The AMIP experiment results suggest that the underlying sea ice and SST anomalies play important roles. The individual contributions of sea ice loss in the Barents-Kara Seas and the SST anomalies linked to the phase transition of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) are further investigated by AGCM sensitivity experiments isolating the respective forcings.The sea ice decline in Barents-Kara Seas triggers an atmospheric wave train over the Eurasian mid-to-high latitudes with positive anomalies over the Urals, favoring the occurrence of Ural PAEs. The shift in the PDO to its negative phase triggers a wave train propagating downstream from the North Pacific. One positive anomaly lobe of the wave train is located over the Ural Mountains and increases the PAE there. The negative-to-positive transition of the AMO phase since the late-1990s causes positive 500-h Pa height anomalies south of the Ural Mountains, which promote a southward shift of Ural PAE.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U2442210,42175042,and 42275059)the Natural Science Foundation of Sichuan Province(Grant No.2024NSFTD0017)+1 种基金the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(STEP)program(Grant No.2019QZKK0103)the Natural Science Foundation of Chongqing(Grant No.cstc2021jcyj-msxmX0698).
文摘Southwest China(SWC)is one of the major grain-producing areas in China,and the surface air temperature(SAT)during autumn has a substantial influence on grain production and planting.It is therefore important to understand temporal changes in the SAT over SWC(SWC-SAT).Our analysis of observational and reanalysis datasets shows that the autumn SWC-SAT exhibits significant multidecadal variability.A significantly strong positive correlation also exists between the autumn SWC-SAT and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation(AMO)time series(correlation coefficient of 0.85).These results suggest that the AMO is a remote driver of multidecadal variability in the autumn SWC-SAT.Further analyses show that the North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA)associated with the AMO modulate the multidecadal variability of the autumn SWC-SAT through triggering the Africa-Asia multidecadal teleconnection(AAMT)pattern.Specifically,the AAMT corresponds to geopotential height anomalies over SWC,which adjust the local thickness of the air column and thereby induce multidecadal variability of the autumn SWC-SAT.This potential mechanism,derived from observational and reanalysis datasets,was verified by using a linear barotropic model and the Community Atmosphere Model version 4.Our results from combining observations and numerical modeling simulations indicate that the North Atlantic SSTA may act as a key pacemaker for the multidecadal SAT variability over SWC.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number U2442202]the National Key Research and Development Program of China[grant number 2018YFA0606200]+1 种基金the Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research[grant number 2020B0301030004]the Science and Technology Project of the Tibet Autonomous Region[grant number XZ202402ZD0006-06]。
文摘Compound extreme climate events involving multiple meteorological elements usually have a more severe impact on the environment and human health than single-element extreme events.However,the current definition of multi-element compound extreme events is proposed from meteorological and statistical perspectives,without integrating health data,making the conclusions less practical for guiding health risk prevention.This study identified the threshold for hot–dry compound extreme events with high mortality risks(HMHDs)in China,using daily mortality data and temperature–humidity data from 278 districts or counties,and explored the interdecadal change and driving mechanisms of HMHD frequency in China from 1979 to 2021.The results show a significant increase in annual HMHD frequency in China after 2000,mainly occurring in summer(June,July,August).The northwestern to western regions of China(Xinjiang,Inner Mongolia,Gansu),and from the southwestern to the areas south of the Yangtze River(Sichuan,Hubei,Hunan,Jiangxi,Fujian,Guizhou,Yunnan),experience an increase of>10 days.The authors find that the interdecadal abrupt change in HMHD frequency can be attributed to the shift of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation from a negative to a positive phase by affecting the Silk Road teleconnection.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.41976221the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure Project“Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility”(EarthLab).
文摘The importance of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation(IPO)in influencing zonally asymmetric changes in Antarctic surface air temperature(SAT)has been established.However,previous studies have primarily concentrated on examining the combined impact of the contrasting phases of the AMO and IPO,which have been dominant since the advent of satellite observations in 1979.This study utilizes long-term reanalysis data to investigate the impact of four combinations of+AMO+IPO,–AMO–IPO,+AMO–IPO,and–AMO+IPO on Antarctic SAT over the past 115 years.The+AMO phase is characterized by a spatial mean temperature amplitude of up to 0.5℃over the North Atlantic Ocean,accompanied by positive sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in the tropical eastern Pacific and negative SST anomalies in the extratropical-mid-latitude western Pacific,which are indicative of the+IPO phase.The Antarctic SAT exhibits contrasting spatial patterns during the+AMO+IPO and+AMO–IPO periods.However,during the–AMO+IPO period,apart from the Antarctic Peninsula and the vicinity of the Weddell Sea,the entire Antarctic region experiences a warming trend.The most pronounced signal in the SAT anomalies is observed during the austral autumn,whereas the combination of–AMO and–IPO exhibits the smallest magnitude across all the combinations.The wavetrain excited by the SST anomalies associated with the AMO and IPO induces upper-level and surface atmospheric circulation anomalies,which alter the SAT anomalies.Furthermore,downward longwave radiation anomalies related to anomalous cloud cover play a crucial role.In the future,if the phases of AMO and IPO were to reverse(AMO transitioning to a negative phase and IPO transitioning to a positive phase),Antarctica could potentially face more pronounced warming and accelerated melting compared to the current observations.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)Project(Grant No.41790474)Shandong Natural Science Foundation Project(Grant No.ZR2019ZD12)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Grant No.201962009).
文摘In this paper,we investigate the influence of the winter NAO on the multidecadal variability of winter East Asian surface air temperature(EASAT)and EASAT decadal prediction.The observational analysis shows that the winter EASAT and East Asian minimum SAT(EAmSAT)display strong in-phase fluctuations and a significant 60-80-year multidecadal variability,apart from a long-term warming trend.The winter EASAT experienced a decreasing trend in the last two decades,which is consistent with the occurrence of extremely cold events in East Asia winters in recent years.The winter NAO leads the detrended winter EASAT by 12-18 years with the greatest significant positive correlation at the lead time of 15 years.Further analysis shows that ENSO may affect winter EASAT interannual variability,but does not affect the robust lead relationship between the winter NAO and EASAT.We present the coupled oceanic-atmospheric bridge(COAB)mechanism of the NAO influences on winter EASAT multidecadal variability through its accumulated delayed effect of~15 years on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)and Africa-Asia multidecadal teleconnection(AAMT)pattern.An NAO-based linear model for predicting winter decadal EASAT is constructed on the principle of the COAB mechanism,with good hindcast performance.The winter EASAT for 2020-34 is predicted to keep on fluctuating downward until~2025,implying a high probability of occurrence of extremely cold events in coming winters in East Asia,followed by a sudden turn towards sharp warming.The predicted 2020/21 winter EASAT is almost the same as the 2019/20 winter.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China[grant number 2016YFA0601802]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number41375085],[grant number 421004]the Strategic Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[grant number XDA11010401]
文摘Previous studies have shown that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation （AMO） can play an important role in modulating the variabilityoflndian summer monsoon rainfall （ISMR） over a 50-60-yr timescale. A significant positive correlation between the AMO and ISMR is found both in observations and models. However, instrumental records show that the relationship becomes non-significant or even of opposite sign after the mid-1990s, suggesting a weakening of the AMO-ISMR connection. The mechanism for the breakdown of the AMO-ISMR connection is investigated in the present work, and the results suggest that a substantial warming in the Indian-tropical western Pacific Ocean plays a role. The warming weakens the meridional gradient of tropospheric temperature between Eurasia and the indian Ocean, and reduces the meridional sea level pressure gradient between the Indian Subcontinent and Indian Ocean, weakening the Indian summer monsoon. Thus, warming in the Indian-tropical western Pacific Ocean seems responsible for the weakened connection between the AMO and ISM.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of Ministry of Science and Technology of China (Grant 2018YFA0606403 and 2015CB453202)
文摘Based on ensemble experiments with three atmospheric general circulation models(AGCMs), this study investigates the role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) in shaping the summer nonuniform warming over the Eurasian continent since the mid-1990 s. The results validate that the positive-phase AMO can indeed cause nonuniform warming,with predominant amplified warming over Europe–West Asia and Northeast Asia, but with much weaker warming over Central Asia. The underlying mechanism is then diagnosed from the perspective that the boundary forcing modulates the intrinsic atmospheric variability. The results highlight the role of the Silk Road Pattern(SRP), an intrinsic teleconnection pattern across the subtropical Eurasian continent propagating along the Asian jet. The SRP can not only be identified from the AGCM control experiments with the climatological sea surface temperature(SST), but can also be simulated by the AMO-related SST anomaly(SSTA) forcing. Furthermore, diagnostic linear baroclinic model experiments are conducted, and the results suggest that the SRP can be triggered by the AMO-related tropical diabatic heating. The AMO-triggered SRP-like responses feature anticyclonic circulations over Europe–West Asia and Northeast Asia, but cyclonic circulation over Central Asia. These responses cause increased warm advection towards Europe–West Asia and Northeast Asia, reduced precipitation and cloud cover, and then increased downward shortwave radiation. This increased warm advection and increased downward shortwave radiation together cause amplified warming in Europe–West Asia and Northeast Asia. The situation is opposite for Central Asia.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41421004)the National Key Basic Research Development Program of China(Grant No.2016YFA0601802 and 2015CB453202)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41375085)
文摘This study focuses on the climatic impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation （AMO） as a mode of internal vari- ability. Given the difficulties involved in excluding the effects of external forcing from internal variation, i.e., owing to the short record length of instrumental observations and historical simulations, we assess and compare the AMO and its related climatic impacts both in observations and in the ＂Pre-industrial＂ experiments of models participating in CMIP5. First, we evaluate the skill of the 25 CMIP5 models＇ ＂Historical＂ simulations in simulating the observational AMO, and find there is generally a considerable range of skill among them in this regard. Six of the models with higher skill relative to the other models are selected to investigate the AMO-related climate impacts, and it is found that their ＂Pre-industrial＂ simulations capture the essential features of the AMO. A positive AMO favors warmer surface temperature around the North Atlantic, and the Atlantic ITCZ shifts northward leading to more rainfall in the Sahel and less rainfall in Brazil. Furthermore, the results confirm the existence of a teleconnection between the AMO and East Asian surface temperature, as well as the late withdrawal of the Indian summer monsoon, during positive AMO phases. These connections could be mainly caused by internal climate variability. Opposite patterns are true for the negative phase of the AMO.
基金supported by the strategic project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA11010406)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.41375085 and 41421004)
文摘A simple air-sea coupled model, the atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM） of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction coupled to a mixed-layer slab ocean model, is employed to investigate the impact of air-sea coupling on the signals of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation （AMO）. A regional coupling strategy is applied, in which coupling is switched off in the extratropical North Atlantic Ocean but switched on in the open oceans elsewhere. The coupled model is forced with warm-phase AMO SST anomalies, and the modeled responses are compared with those from parallel uncoupled AGCM experiments with the same SST forcing. The results suggest that the regionally coupled responses not only resemble the AGCM simulation, but also have a stronger intensity. In comparison, the coupled responses bear greater similarity to the observational composite anomaly. Thus, air-sea coupling enhances the responses of the East Asian winter climate to the AMO. To determine the mechanism responsible for the coupling amplification, an additional set of AGCM experiments, forced with the AMO-induced tropical SST anomalies, is conducted. The SST anomalies are extracted from the simulated AMO-induced SST response in the regionally coupled model. The results suggest that the SST anomalies contribute to the coupling amplification. Thus, tropical air-sea coupling feedback tends to enhance the responses of the East Asian winter climate to the AMO.
基金jointly supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[grant number XDA19070401]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41790473 and41421004]the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities
文摘The modulation of winter intraseasonal variability(ISV)by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)is investigated through three sets of reanalysis data and numerical experiments with the NCEP’s atmospheric general circulation model(AGCM).Results show that the positive phase of the AMO tends to intensify ISV activity over the northern Atlantic and shift ISV activity over the Ural Mountains toward the south,causing weakened ISV activity at 200 hPa in the north to the Urals and intensified activity in the south.The modulation of ISV activity by the AMO over the Urals is then explored through comparison of the composite evolution of anomalous ISV cases for the different AMO phases.Fewer ISV cases are found in the AMO positive phase than the negative phase,but no substantial difference in the temporal evolution of anomalous ISV events between the two opposing phases of the AMO.Thus,the AMO exerts its modulation through influencing the occurrence frequency of ISV events,rather than their development or evolution processes.A similar result is seen in the AGCM sensitivity experiments.
基金This study was supported by National Key Research and Development Program of China （2016YFA0601801）, the State Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China （41530424）, National Program on Global Change and Air-Sea Interactions, State Oceanic Administration （SOA） （GASI-IPOVAI-03）, and the National Natural Science Foundation of China （41305121）. We sincerely thank two anonymous reviewers whose comments improved the paper.
文摘Based on observations and Coupled Model lntercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） results, multidecadal variations and trends in annual mean surface air temperature anomalies （SATa） at global, hemispheric, and hemispheric land and ocean scales in the past and under the future scenarios of two representative concentration pathways （RCPs） are analyzed. Fifteen models are selected based on their performances in capturing the temporal variability, long-term trend, multidecadal variations, and trends in global annual mean SATa. Observational data analysis shows that the multidecadal variations in annual mean SATa of the land and ocean in the northern hemisphere （NH） and of the ocean in the southern hemisphere （SH） are similar to those of the global mean, showing an increase during the 1900-1944 and 1971-2000 periods, and flattening or even cooling during the 1945-1970 and 2001-2013 periods. These observed characteristics are basically reproduced by the models. However, SATa over SH land show an increase during the 1945-1970 period, which differs from the other hemispheric scales, and this feature is not captured well by the models. For the recent hiatus period （2001-2013）, the projected trends of BCC-CSM1-1-m, CMCC-CM, GFDL-ESM2M, and NorESM1-ME at the global and hemispheric scales are closest to the observations based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, suggesting that these four models have better projection capability in SATa. Because these four models are better at simulating and projecting the multidecadal trends of SATa, they are selected to analyze future SATa variations at the global and hemispheric scales during the 2006-2099 period. The selected multi-model ensemble （MME） projected trends in annual mean SATa for the globe, NH, and SH under RCP4.5 （RCP8.5） are 0.17 （0.29） ℃, 0.22 （0.36） ℃, and 0.11 （0.23） ℃-decade-1 in the 21st century, respectively. These values are significantly lower than the projections of CMIP5 MME without model selection.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 41421004],[grant number41130103]
文摘The internal modes of the North Pacific can lead to climatic oscillations through ocean-atmosphere interactions and induce global climate responses.The best example is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, but this fails to explain many climate phenomena. Here, another multidecadal variability over the North Pacific is described, found by analyzing reconstructed data covering the past 140 years. It is named the Pacific Multidecadal Oscillation （PMO）, with anomalously high/low SSTs over the northeastern Pacific, and a quasi-60-year cycle. Related to this low-frequency variability of SST, the global mean temperature and precipitation present significant interdecadal differences. More importantly, the PMO index leads the global mean surface air temperature and SST by one to three years. The Arctic Oscillation pattern and atmospheric circulations are shown to change substantially with the transition of the PMO mode from positive to negative phases. This multidecadal oscillation improves the prospect for a long-term forecast of the global warming trend, since the PMO bears a remarkable relationship with global temperature.
基金supported by the Research Council of Norway(Grant Nos.EPOCASA#229774/E10 and SNOWGLACE#244166)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41605059)the Young Talent Support Plan launched by the China Association for Science and Technology(Grant No.2016QNRC001)
文摘Early studies suggested that the Aleutian–Icelandic low seesaw(AIS) features multidecadal variation. In this study, the multidecadal modulation of the AIS and associated surface climate by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) during late winter(February–March) is explored with observational data. It is shown that, in the cold phase of the AMO(AMO|-),a clear AIS is established, while this is not the case in the warm phase of the AMO(AMO|+). The surface climate over Eurasia is significantly influenced by the AMO’s modulation of the Aleutian low(AL). For example, the weak AL in AMO|-displays warmer surface temperatures over the entire Far East and along the Russian Arctic coast and into Northern Europe,but only over the Russian Far East in AMO|+. Similarly, precipitation decreases over central Europe with the weak AL in AMO|-, but decreases over northern Europe and increases over southern Europe in AMO|+.The mechanism underlying the influence of AMO|-on the AIS can be described as follows: AMO|-weakens the upward component of the Eliassen–Palm flux along the polar waveguide by reducing atmospheric blocking occurrence over the Euro–Atlantic sector, and hence drives an enhanced stratospheric polar vortex. With the intensified polar night jet, the wave trains originating over the central North Pacific can propagate horizontally through North America and extend into the North Atlantic, favoring an eastward-extended Pacific–North America–Atlantic pattern, and resulting in a significant AIS at the surface during late winter.
文摘Currently available proxies were studied as networks for building reconstruction models of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Only proxies that would double the current record length (backwards in time from AD 1564) were included. We present two proxy networks and corresponding reconstruction (transfer) models, one for tree-growth based proxies only and another for multiproxies. Both of them show a useful match in timing as well as amplitude with the AMO. These model structures demonstrated reasonable model performance (overall r<sup>2</sup> = 0.45 - 0.36). The time stability of proxy-AMO relationships was also validated. The new models produced acceptable results in cross-calibration-verification (reduction of error and coefficient of efficiency statistics in 1856-1921 and 1922-1990 vary between 0.41 and 0.21). The spatial distribution of these data series indicate that proxies respond to an AMO-like climatic oscillation over much of the Northern Hemisphere.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41976027)the Laoshan Laboratory(No.LSKJ202201601)。
文摘We used the ocean reanalysis dataset SODA 2.2.4 to investigate the relationship between the interior branch of subtropical-tropical cells(STCs)in the Pacific Ocean and El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)over interdecadal timescales between 1930 and 2010,as well as the possible mechanisms involved.Interior transport within the upper pycnocline layers of STCs(InSTC)along 9°S(InSTC9s)shows a significant correlation of 0.54 with ENSO over the study period.However,there is an interdecadal shift in the relationship between InSTC along 9°N(InSTC9n)and ENSO.The correlation coefficient between InSTC9n and ENSO is not statistically significant between 1930 and 1965(PD1),but is as high as 0.68(significant at the 95% confidence level)between 1965 and 2010(PD2).Composite and regression analysis suggests that this shift may be caused by the relationship between InSTC 9 n and the tropical wind field.During PD1,InSTC9n was driven primarily by the local wind field outside equatorial region,with a relatively weak response to the equatorial wind related to ENSO.In contrast,during PD2,the wind field associated with InSTC 9 n showed a similar spatial distribution to that of ENSO within the equatorial region,indicating a close relationship between InSTC9n and ENSO.The wind stress curl associated with ENSO drives the anomalous InSTC9n in off-equatorial regions,whose signal can propagate westward in the form of Rossby wave and modulate the thermal structure of the tropical Pacific,favoring the development of ENSO.The possible connection between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)and interdecadal changes in the ENSO-InSTC9n relationship was also examined.There is a significant connection between the AMO and the interdecadal change in the relationship between ENSO and InSTC9n;however,the associated mechanism remains to be explored in future studies.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program for Developing Basic Sciences (2016YFC1401401, 2016YFC1401601, Y83A01c801)Sun Yat-Sen University’s ‘‘Hundred Talents" Program, the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41576026 and 41576025)the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) under the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Biological & Environmental Research (BER) Cooperative Agreement (DE-FC0297ER62402)
文摘The Atlantic Multidedal Oscillation(AMO) is a prominent mode of sea surface temperature variability in the Atlantic and incurs significant global influence. Most coupled models failed to reproduce the observed 50–80-year AMO, but were overwhelmed by a 10–30-year AMO. Here we show that the 50–80-year AMO and 10–30-year AMO represent two different AMO regimes. The key differences are:(1) the 50–80-year AMO involves transport of warm and saline Atlantic water into the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian(GIN)Seas prior to reaching its maximum positive phase, while such a transport is weak for the 10–30-year AMO;(2) the zonality of atmospheric variability associated with the 50–80 year AMO favors the transport of warm and saline water into the GIN Seas;(3) the disappearance of Pacific variability weakens the zonality of atmospheric variability and the transport of warm and saline water into the GIN Seas, leading to the weakening of the 50–80-year AMO. In contrast, the 10–30-year AMO does not show dependence on the variability in Pacific and in the GIN Seas and may be an Atlantic-intrinsic mode. Our results suggest that differentiating these AMO regimes and a better understanding of the cross-basin connections are essential to reconcile the current debate on the nature of AMO and hence to its reliable prediction, which is still lacking in most of coupled models.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2017YFA0603302)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41888101 & 41602192 & 41977383)+4 种基金the Belmont Forum and JPI-Climate, Collaborative Research Action “INTEGRATE” (Grant No. 41661144008)support by the Youth Innovation Promotion Association Foundation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. 2018471)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation (Grant No. 41901095)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation (Grant No. 41877440)supported by Opening Fund of Key Laboratory of Desert and Desertification, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KLDD-2019-04)。
文摘The temperature variability over multidecadal and longer timescales(e.g., the cold epochs in the late 15 th, 17 th, and early 19 th centuries) is significant and dominant in the millennium-long, large-scale reconstructions and model simulations;however, their temporal patterns in the reconstructed and simulated temperature series are not well understood and require a detailed assessment and comparison. Here, we compare the reconstructed and simulated temperature series for the Northern Hemisphere(NH) at multidecadal and longer-term timescales(>30 years) by evaluating their covariance, climate sensitivity and amplitude of temperature changes. We found that covariances between different reconstructions or between reconstructions and simulations are generally high for the whole period of 850–1999 CE, due to their similar long-term temporal patterns. However,covariances between different reconstructions or between reconstructions and simulations steadily decline as time series extends further back in time, becoming particularly small during Medieval times. This is related to the large uncetainties in the reconstructions caused by the decreased number of proxy records and sample duplication during the pre-instrumental periods.Reconstructions based solely on tree-ring data show higher skill than multiproxy reconstructions in capturing the amplitude of volcanic cooling simulated by models. Meanwhile, climate models have a shorter recovery(i.e., lag) in response to the cooling caused by volcanic eruptions and solar activity minima, implying the lack of some important feedback mechanisms between external forcing and internal climate processes in climate models. Amplitudes of temperature variations in the latest published tree-ring reconstructions are comparable to those of the multiproxy reconstructions. We found that the temperature difference between the Medieval Climate Anomaly(950–1250 CE) and the Little Ice Age(1450–1850 CE) is generally larger in proxybased reconstructions than in model simulations, but the reason is unclear.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2016YFA0600404)Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(2016075)Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change
文摘Near-term climate projections are needed by policymakers; however, these projections are difficult because internally generated climate variations need to be considered. In this study, temperature change scenarios in the near-term period 2017-35 are projected at global and regional scales based on a refined multi-model ensemble approach that considers both the secular trend(ST) and multidecadal variability(MDV) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) simulations. The ST and MDV components are adaptively extracted from each model simulation by using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD) filter, reconstructed via the Bayesian model averaging(BMA) method for the historical period 1901-2005, and validated for 2006-16. In the simulations of the "medium" representative concentration pathways scenario during 2017-35, the MDV-modulated temperature change projected via the refined approach displays an increase of 0.44℃(90% uncertainty range from 0.30 to 0.58℃) for global land, 0.48℃(90% uncertainty range from 0.29 to 0.67℃) for the Northern Hemispheric land(NL), and 0.29℃(90% uncertainty range from 0.23 to 0.35℃) for the Southern Hemispheric land(SL). These increases are smaller than those projected by the conventional arithmetic mean approach. The MDV enhances the ST in 13 of 21 regions across the world. The largest MDV-modulated warming effect(46%) exists in central America. In contrast,the MDV counteracts the ST in NL, SL, and eight other regions, with the largest cooling effect(220%) in Alaska.
文摘Subject Code:D02With the support by the National Natural Science Foundation of China,a collaborative study by the research group led by Prof.Yang Bao(杨保)from the Key Laboratory of Desert and Desertification,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,and
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.U23A2020National Science and Technology Basic Resource Investigation Program,No.2023FY100701。
文摘In the context of global warming,escalating water cycles have led to a surge in drought frequency and severity.Yet,multidecadal fluctuations in drought and their multifaceted influencing factors remain inadequately understood.This study examined the multidecadal changes in drought characteristics(frequency,duration,and severity)and their geographical focal points within China's north-south transitional zone,the Qinling-Daba Mountains(QDM),from 1960 to 2017 using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI).In addition,a suite of eight scenarios,correlation analysis,and wavelet coherence were used to identify the meteorological and circulation factors that influenced drought characteristics.The results indicate the following:(1)From 1960 to 2017,the QDM experienced significant interdecadal variations in drought frequency,duration,and severity,the climate was relatively humid before the 1990s,but drought intensified thereafter.Specifically,the 1990s marked the period of the longest drought duration and greatest severity,while the years spanning 2010 to 2017 experienced the highest frequency of drought events.(2)Spatially,the Qinling Mountains,particularly the western Qinling Mountain,exhibited higher drought frequency,duration,and severity than the Daba Mountains.This disparity can be attributed to higher rates of temperature increase and precipitation decrease in the western Qinling Mountain.(3)Interdecadal variations in droughts in the QDM were directly influenced by the synergistic effects of interdecadal fluctuations in air temperature and precipitation.Circulation factors modulate temperature and precipitation through phase transitions,thereby affecting drought dynamics in the QDM.The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation emerges as the primary circulation factors influencing temperature changes,with a mid-1990s shift to a positive phase favoring warming.The East Asian Summer Monsoon and El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation are the main circulation factors affecting precipitation changes,with positive phase transitions associated with reduced precipitation,and vice versa for increased precipitation.
基金jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No.2018YFA0606403)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.41790473)the Beijing Natural Science Foundation (8234068)。
文摘Observational analyses demonstrate that the Ural persistent positive height anomaly event(PAE) experienced a decadal increase around the year 2000, exhibiting a southward displacement afterward. These decadal variations are related to a large-scale circulation shift over the Eurasian Continent. The effects of underlying sea ice and sea surface temperature(SST) anomalies on the Ural PAE and the related atmospheric circulation were explored by Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP) experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and by sensitivity experiments using the Atmospheric General Circulation Model(AGCM). The AMIP experiment results suggest that the underlying sea ice and SST anomalies play important roles. The individual contributions of sea ice loss in the Barents-Kara Seas and the SST anomalies linked to the phase transition of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) are further investigated by AGCM sensitivity experiments isolating the respective forcings.The sea ice decline in Barents-Kara Seas triggers an atmospheric wave train over the Eurasian mid-to-high latitudes with positive anomalies over the Urals, favoring the occurrence of Ural PAEs. The shift in the PDO to its negative phase triggers a wave train propagating downstream from the North Pacific. One positive anomaly lobe of the wave train is located over the Ural Mountains and increases the PAE there. The negative-to-positive transition of the AMO phase since the late-1990s causes positive 500-h Pa height anomalies south of the Ural Mountains, which promote a southward shift of Ural PAE.
