This research analyzes the variations of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Anomaly(SASMRA)between the first development year(Y0)and the following year(Y1)of all multi-year La Ni?a events from 1958 to 2022.During...This research analyzes the variations of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Anomaly(SASMRA)between the first development year(Y0)and the following year(Y1)of all multi-year La Ni?a events from 1958 to 2022.During Y0,monsoon precipitation surpasses climatological values,presenting a tripole spatial pattern,whereas Y1 is characterized by below-normal precipitation with a dipole pattern.In certain regions,the difference in precipitation between Y0 and Y1 reaches up to 3 mm day–1.This work provides further insight into the key tropical ocean regions driving the precipitation distinction,and elucidates their coupling mechanisms with large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies.Influenced by the development of earlier ocean-atmosphere anomaly patterns,the Tropical Indian Ocean and Western Pacific(TIO-WP)warming(cooling)is significant during the summer of Y0(Y1).The elevated sea surface temperature(SST)in Y0 supports an anomalous Western North Pacific(WNP)anticyclone via a Kelvin-wave-induced Ekman divergence mechanism.This anomalous anticyclone intensifies the suppressed convection over the WNP,which results in increased divergence in the upper-level troposphere over the Indian Ocean and South Asian regions,thereby boosting convection.Simultaneously,the easterly winds associated with the strengthened equatorial latitude SST anomaly(SSTA)gradient and the anomalous anticyclone intensified,transporting a large amount of water vapor to the west.The combined moisture and dynamic conditions support the enhanced precipitation in the South Asian region.展开更多
Arctic sea ice has undergone a significant decline in the Barents-Kara Sea(BKS)since the late 1990s.Previous studies have shown that the decrease in sea ice caused by increased poleward moisture transport is modulated...Arctic sea ice has undergone a significant decline in the Barents-Kara Sea(BKS)since the late 1990s.Previous studies have shown that the decrease in sea ice caused by increased poleward moisture transport is modulated by tropical sea temperature changes(mainly referring to La Niña events).The occurrence of multi-year La Niña(MYLA)events has increased significantly in recent decades,and their impact on Arctic sea ice needs to be further explored.In this study,we investigate the relationship between sea-ice variation and different atmospheric diagnostics during MYLA and other La Niña(OTLA)years.The decline in BKS sea ice during MYLA winters is significantly stronger than that during OTLA years.This is because MYLA events tend to be accompanied by a warm Arctic-cold continent pattern with a barotropic high pressure blocked over the Urals region.Consequently,more frequent northward atmospheric rivers intrude into the BKS,intensifying longwave radiation downward to the underlying surface and melting the BKS sea ice.However,in the early winter of OTLA years,a negative North Atlantic Oscillation presents in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere,which obstructs the atmospheric rivers to the south of Iceland.We infer that such a different response of BKS sea-ice decline to different La Niña events is related to stratospheric processes.Considering the rapid climate changes in the past,more frequent MYLA events may account for the substantial Arctic sea-ice loss in recent decades.展开更多
To explain the recent three-year La Niña event from 2020 to 2022,which has caused catastrophic weather events worldwide,Fasullo et al.(2023)demonstrated that the increase in biomass aerosol resulting from the 201...To explain the recent three-year La Niña event from 2020 to 2022,which has caused catastrophic weather events worldwide,Fasullo et al.(2023)demonstrated that the increase in biomass aerosol resulting from the 2019-20 Australian wildfire season could have triggered this multi-year La Niña.Here,we present compelling evidence from paleo-proxies,utilizing a substantial sample size of 26 volcanic eruptions in the Southern Hemisphere(SH),to support the hypothesis that ocean cooling in the SH can lead to a multi-year La Niña event.This research highlights the importance of focusing on the Southern Ocean,as current climate models struggle to accurately simulate the Pacific response driven by the Southern Ocean.展开更多
One of sea ice core samples was taken from Arctic by the First Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition Team in 1999. 20 vertical and 2 horizontal ice sections were cut out of the ice core sample 2.22 m in length, ...One of sea ice core samples was taken from Arctic by the First Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition Team in 1999. 20 vertical and 2 horizontal ice sections were cut out of the ice core sample 2.22 m in length, which covered the ice sheet from surface to bottom except losses for during sampling and section cutting. From the observation and analysis of the fabrics and crystals along the depth of the ice core sample, followings were found. Whole ice sheet consists of columnar, refrozen clastic pieces, granular, columnar, refrozen clastic pieces, granular, columnar and refrozen clastic pieces. This indicates that the ice core sample was 3-year old, and the ice sheet surface thawed and the melt water flowed into ice sheet during summer. Hence, the annual energy balance in Arctic can be determined by the ice sheet surface thawing in summer, and bottom growth in winter. The thickness of the ice sheet is kept constantly at a certain position based on the corresponding climate and ocean conditions; A new展开更多
Sediment yield dynamics on the Edwards Plateau region of Texas was dramatically influenced by a multi-year drought that occurred there during the 1950s. To assess the effect of this drought on sediment yield, we used ...Sediment yield dynamics on the Edwards Plateau region of Texas was dramatically influenced by a multi-year drought that occurred there during the 1950s. To assess the effect of this drought on sediment yield, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to identify the factors that contributed erosion and to propose potential mitigation measures in case of future drought recurrence. The basins of interest to this study were Brady Creek One (BC 1) and Deep Creek Three (DC 3), located in McCulloch County, Texas. Although the streams in these basins are not gauged, the land cover and reservoir sediment budgets have been assessed in a past study. Calibration of SWAT flow simulation was accomplished using parameter transfer from a gauging station located in San Saba River. The results showed that sediment yield from storms above 60 mm was five times more during and immediately after drought period than during continuous wet seasons. Approximately half of the total drought period sediment yield was from five major rainstorms. The multi-year drought coupled with historical high grazing intensity resulted in significant loss of plant cover, which was considered critical in determining erosion and sedimentation rates. To test this hypothesis, the model was run for the periods of high land cover (1990s) using the 1950s multi-year drought data which showed that sediment yield was 24% of that simulated for 1950s land cover. It was concluded that maintenance of surface cover could play a critical role associated with multi-year drought extreme events.展开更多
El Niño is frequently followed by La Niña,while La Niña tends to sustain into the next year or even longer,exhibiting a notable phase transition asymmetry(TA)of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).T...El Niño is frequently followed by La Niña,while La Niña tends to sustain into the next year or even longer,exhibiting a notable phase transition asymmetry(TA)of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).This study explores the potential influences of tropical Indian Ocean(TIO)decadal variability on TA based on a comparative analysis of the relationship between the TIO sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA)and ENSO during different periods.Generally,the TIO SSTA strengthened TA before the 1980s,corresponding to a highly positive relationship between the whole TIO SSTA and ENSO.However,the weakening effect was exhibited after the 1980s when the correlation diminished.After the late 1990s,ENSO was only positively correlated with western TIO,with the westerly exhibit of the SSTA center leading to smaller impacts on TA.Moreover,TIO SSTA tends to weaken TA by promoting the transition efficiency of La Niña,while bringing little effect on that of El Niño.Physically,compared to the mid-1970s,TIO SSTA triggered westerly wind anomalies during the autumn and winter of the La Niña development phase in the central equatorial Pacific in the late 1990s,which sped up the decay of La Niña.It then regenerated westerly anomalies in the following winter,facilitating the development of El Niño.This study quantifies the impact of the TIO SSTA on TA in seasonal signals and investigates the decadal variability of such influence,aiming to further understand phase transition asymmetry and offer valuable insights for the prediction of multi-year La Niña.展开更多
以黄河上游多年调节水库龙羊峡及下游刘家峡水库为研究对象,考虑来水不确定性影响,建立梯级水库群多目标随机优化模型,并基于理想点法(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution,TOPSIS)决策方法,求解当年发...以黄河上游多年调节水库龙羊峡及下游刘家峡水库为研究对象,考虑来水不确定性影响,建立梯级水库群多目标随机优化模型,并基于理想点法(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution,TOPSIS)决策方法,求解当年发电量与年末水位Pareto方案集中最佳方案,探讨来水频率及起调水位对年末水位和发电量的影响,验证年末期望水位保证多年调节水库发电效益的可靠性。结果表明:在不确定来水条件下,龙羊峡水库年末期望水位与龙羊峡水库、刘家峡水库年期望发电量之间存在竞争关系;龙羊峡水库来水频率越低、起调水位越高时,龙羊峡水库年末水位越高,龙羊峡水库、刘家峡水库发电量越大;基于提出的年末水位优化方法可大幅缩减龙羊峡水库现行调度方式下年末水位范围,且保障发电效益的可靠性在98%以上。展开更多
基金Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research(2020B0301030004)National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFF0805300)Civilian Space Programme of China(D040305)。
文摘This research analyzes the variations of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Anomaly(SASMRA)between the first development year(Y0)and the following year(Y1)of all multi-year La Ni?a events from 1958 to 2022.During Y0,monsoon precipitation surpasses climatological values,presenting a tripole spatial pattern,whereas Y1 is characterized by below-normal precipitation with a dipole pattern.In certain regions,the difference in precipitation between Y0 and Y1 reaches up to 3 mm day–1.This work provides further insight into the key tropical ocean regions driving the precipitation distinction,and elucidates their coupling mechanisms with large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies.Influenced by the development of earlier ocean-atmosphere anomaly patterns,the Tropical Indian Ocean and Western Pacific(TIO-WP)warming(cooling)is significant during the summer of Y0(Y1).The elevated sea surface temperature(SST)in Y0 supports an anomalous Western North Pacific(WNP)anticyclone via a Kelvin-wave-induced Ekman divergence mechanism.This anomalous anticyclone intensifies the suppressed convection over the WNP,which results in increased divergence in the upper-level troposphere over the Indian Ocean and South Asian regions,thereby boosting convection.Simultaneously,the easterly winds associated with the strengthened equatorial latitude SST anomaly(SSTA)gradient and the anomalous anticyclone intensified,transporting a large amount of water vapor to the west.The combined moisture and dynamic conditions support the enhanced precipitation in the South Asian region.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2022YFE0106300)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42105052 and 42106220)+1 种基金the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(Grant No.2020B1515020025)the fundamental research funds for the Norges Forskningsråd(Grant No.328886).
文摘Arctic sea ice has undergone a significant decline in the Barents-Kara Sea(BKS)since the late 1990s.Previous studies have shown that the decrease in sea ice caused by increased poleward moisture transport is modulated by tropical sea temperature changes(mainly referring to La Niña events).The occurrence of multi-year La Niña(MYLA)events has increased significantly in recent decades,and their impact on Arctic sea ice needs to be further explored.In this study,we investigate the relationship between sea-ice variation and different atmospheric diagnostics during MYLA and other La Niña(OTLA)years.The decline in BKS sea ice during MYLA winters is significantly stronger than that during OTLA years.This is because MYLA events tend to be accompanied by a warm Arctic-cold continent pattern with a barotropic high pressure blocked over the Urals region.Consequently,more frequent northward atmospheric rivers intrude into the BKS,intensifying longwave radiation downward to the underlying surface and melting the BKS sea ice.However,in the early winter of OTLA years,a negative North Atlantic Oscillation presents in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere,which obstructs the atmospheric rivers to the south of Iceland.We infer that such a different response of BKS sea-ice decline to different La Niña events is related to stratospheric processes.Considering the rapid climate changes in the past,more frequent MYLA events may account for the substantial Arctic sea-ice loss in recent decades.
基金the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2020YFA0608803)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41975107,41875092 and 42005020).
文摘To explain the recent three-year La Niña event from 2020 to 2022,which has caused catastrophic weather events worldwide,Fasullo et al.(2023)demonstrated that the increase in biomass aerosol resulting from the 2019-20 Australian wildfire season could have triggered this multi-year La Niña.Here,we present compelling evidence from paleo-proxies,utilizing a substantial sample size of 26 volcanic eruptions in the Southern Hemisphere(SH),to support the hypothesis that ocean cooling in the SH can lead to a multi-year La Niña event.This research highlights the importance of focusing on the Southern Ocean,as current climate models struggle to accurately simulate the Pacific response driven by the Southern Ocean.
基金The paper is supported by the project of First Chinese National Arctic Re-search Expedition and National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.49 776278).
文摘One of sea ice core samples was taken from Arctic by the First Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition Team in 1999. 20 vertical and 2 horizontal ice sections were cut out of the ice core sample 2.22 m in length, which covered the ice sheet from surface to bottom except losses for during sampling and section cutting. From the observation and analysis of the fabrics and crystals along the depth of the ice core sample, followings were found. Whole ice sheet consists of columnar, refrozen clastic pieces, granular, columnar, refrozen clastic pieces, granular, columnar and refrozen clastic pieces. This indicates that the ice core sample was 3-year old, and the ice sheet surface thawed and the melt water flowed into ice sheet during summer. Hence, the annual energy balance in Arctic can be determined by the ice sheet surface thawing in summer, and bottom growth in winter. The thickness of the ice sheet is kept constantly at a certain position based on the corresponding climate and ocean conditions; A new
文摘Sediment yield dynamics on the Edwards Plateau region of Texas was dramatically influenced by a multi-year drought that occurred there during the 1950s. To assess the effect of this drought on sediment yield, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to identify the factors that contributed erosion and to propose potential mitigation measures in case of future drought recurrence. The basins of interest to this study were Brady Creek One (BC 1) and Deep Creek Three (DC 3), located in McCulloch County, Texas. Although the streams in these basins are not gauged, the land cover and reservoir sediment budgets have been assessed in a past study. Calibration of SWAT flow simulation was accomplished using parameter transfer from a gauging station located in San Saba River. The results showed that sediment yield from storms above 60 mm was five times more during and immediately after drought period than during continuous wet seasons. Approximately half of the total drought period sediment yield was from five major rainstorms. The multi-year drought coupled with historical high grazing intensity resulted in significant loss of plant cover, which was considered critical in determining erosion and sedimentation rates. To test this hypothesis, the model was run for the periods of high land cover (1990s) using the 1950s multi-year drought data which showed that sediment yield was 24% of that simulated for 1950s land cover. It was concluded that maintenance of surface cover could play a critical role associated with multi-year drought extreme events.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(42288101,42192564)Project of Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China(2020YFA0608802)Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research(2020B0301030004)。
文摘El Niño is frequently followed by La Niña,while La Niña tends to sustain into the next year or even longer,exhibiting a notable phase transition asymmetry(TA)of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).This study explores the potential influences of tropical Indian Ocean(TIO)decadal variability on TA based on a comparative analysis of the relationship between the TIO sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA)and ENSO during different periods.Generally,the TIO SSTA strengthened TA before the 1980s,corresponding to a highly positive relationship between the whole TIO SSTA and ENSO.However,the weakening effect was exhibited after the 1980s when the correlation diminished.After the late 1990s,ENSO was only positively correlated with western TIO,with the westerly exhibit of the SSTA center leading to smaller impacts on TA.Moreover,TIO SSTA tends to weaken TA by promoting the transition efficiency of La Niña,while bringing little effect on that of El Niño.Physically,compared to the mid-1970s,TIO SSTA triggered westerly wind anomalies during the autumn and winter of the La Niña development phase in the central equatorial Pacific in the late 1990s,which sped up the decay of La Niña.It then regenerated westerly anomalies in the following winter,facilitating the development of El Niño.This study quantifies the impact of the TIO SSTA on TA in seasonal signals and investigates the decadal variability of such influence,aiming to further understand phase transition asymmetry and offer valuable insights for the prediction of multi-year La Niña.
文摘以黄河上游多年调节水库龙羊峡及下游刘家峡水库为研究对象,考虑来水不确定性影响,建立梯级水库群多目标随机优化模型,并基于理想点法(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution,TOPSIS)决策方法,求解当年发电量与年末水位Pareto方案集中最佳方案,探讨来水频率及起调水位对年末水位和发电量的影响,验证年末期望水位保证多年调节水库发电效益的可靠性。结果表明:在不确定来水条件下,龙羊峡水库年末期望水位与龙羊峡水库、刘家峡水库年期望发电量之间存在竞争关系;龙羊峡水库来水频率越低、起调水位越高时,龙羊峡水库年末水位越高,龙羊峡水库、刘家峡水库发电量越大;基于提出的年末水位优化方法可大幅缩减龙羊峡水库现行调度方式下年末水位范围,且保障发电效益的可靠性在98%以上。
