Based on 2012 input-output table of Shandong province and the official statistics, this article uses the input-output analysis method to build the input-output table. On the basis of the development of service industr...Based on 2012 input-output table of Shandong province and the official statistics, this article uses the input-output analysis method to build the input-output table. On the basis of the development of service industry in Shandong province's ability, we make a theoretical analysis framework of a comprehensive in-depth analysis on pull employment, creatively will cost tax rate, fully and completely labor capital and the combination of both the industry development space. So that the industry's ability to pull the employment can be considered, and to realize rapid and sustained development of service industry in Shandong province.展开更多
Under the pressure of sustained growth in energy consumption in China,the implementation of a carbon pricing mechanism is an effective economic policy measure for promoting emission reduction,as well as a hotspot of r...Under the pressure of sustained growth in energy consumption in China,the implementation of a carbon pricing mechanism is an effective economic policy measure for promoting emission reduction,as well as a hotspot of research among scholars and policy makers.In this paper,the effects of carbon prices on Beijing's economy are analyzed using input-output tables.The carbon price costs are levied in accordance with the products'embodied carbon emission.By calculation,given the carbon price rate of 10 RMB/t-CO_2,the total carbon costs of Beijing account for approximately 0.22-0.40%of its gross revenue the same year.Among all industries,construction bears the largest carbon cost Among export sectors,the coal mining and washing industry has much higher export carbon price intensity than other industries.Apart from traditional energy-intensive industries,tertiary industry,which accounts for more than 70%of Beijing's economy,also bears a major carbon cost because of its large economic size.However,from 2007 to 2010,adjustment of the investment structure has reduced the emission intensity in investment sectors,contributing to the reduction of overall emissions and carbon price intensity.展开更多
Input-output analysis is widely employed to analyze inventories of a product＇s embodied energy and environmental burdens. However, input-output analysis focuses only on the production stage and ignores other life cyc...Input-output analysis is widely employed to analyze inventories of a product＇s embodied energy and environmental burdens. However, input-output analysis focuses only on the production stage and ignores other life cycle phases. Input-output analysis is not exactly a LCA （life cycle assessment） method in the strict sense of ISO 14040 standards, which must cover all stages of a product＇s life cycle, ＂from the cradle to the grave＂, so to speak. A tiered hybrid LCA is a useful tool that covers all life cycle stages by combining a process analysis with the input-output analysis method. This study aims to extend input-output analysis to the use, disposal, and recycling stages by using matrix-based method. The new method is applied to the analysis of the embodied CO2 emissions of a refrigerator as a case study. The entire life cycle C02 emissions are estimated to be 2.9 tons, including indirect emissions, and the reduction in CO2 emissions due to recycling steel scrap is calculated as 48.5 kg. The authors conclude that the new method enables a consistent inventory analysis for all life cycle stages by combining process and input-output methods.展开更多
China is the largest CH4 emitter in the world. Given the importance of CH4 in greenhouse gas emission inventories, the characteristics ofChina＇s CH4 emissions at different scales deserve to be fully understood. Prese...China is the largest CH4 emitter in the world. Given the importance of CH4 in greenhouse gas emission inventories, the characteristics ofChina＇s CH4 emissions at different scales deserve to be fully understood. Presented in this paper is an interprovincial input output embodi- ment analysis of China＇s regional CH4 emissions in 2007, based on the most recently available multi-regional input- output table, and relevant CH4 emissions data. The results show that the eastern, central and western areas contribute to 48.2%, 28.6%, and 23.3% of the national total embodied emissions, respectively. Guangdong has the highest level of embodied CH4 emissions among all of the 30 regions. The Agriculture sector produces the most embodied CH4 emissions in final demand, followed by the Construction, Food Production and Tobacco Processing, and Other Service Activities sectors. Significant net transfers of embodied CH4 emission flows are identified from the central and western areas to the eastern area via interregional trade. Shanxi is the largest interregional exporter of embodied CH4 emissions. In contrast, Guangdong is the largest interregional importer. Energy activities, agricultural activities, and waste management comprise 65.6%, 30.7%, and 3.7% of the total embodied CH4 emissions in interregional trade, respectively. By using consumption-based accounting principles, the emis- sion magnitudes, per capita emissions, and emission intensities of most eastern regions increase remarkably, while those of some central and western regions decrease largely. To achieve regional CH4 emission mitigation, comprehensive mitigation measures should be designed under consideration of regional transfer of emission responsibility.展开更多
The evolving dynamics of industrial convergence among the member countries of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)framework have emerged as a significant subject that merits in-depth consideration and...The evolving dynamics of industrial convergence among the member countries of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)framework have emerged as a significant subject that merits in-depth consideration and analysis.This study initially employs multi-regional input-output(MRIO)data and the social network analysis(SNA)method to delineate the levels and variation trends of this industrial convergence across the RCEP member countries.It then delves into the positive effects of this convergence phenomenon on the trade and investment fields of the member countries.The research findings indicate:(a)In 2006 and 2015,before the implementation of the RCEP,the RCEP member countries displayed a relatively close industrial convergence.The convergence levels exhibited a general upward trend on both the supply and the demand sides,but there were significant disparities in the levels of industrial convergence among the member countries.Furthermore,while the convergence in the three economic sectors showed an increasing trend,the development was uneven across the board.(b)Since the implementation of the RCEP,the trade ties among the member countries within the region have strengthened significantly,and the interplay between the countries’industrial and supply chains has been characterized by high-quality collaboration and demonstrated remarkable resilience.In addition,the convergence in the investment fields of the RCEP member countries and their respective industries has unleashed a wave of positive synergies.These findings offer valuable insights that can serve as a robust foundation for formulating effective policies to advance the growth and prosperity of the RCEP region.展开更多
Lifelines are critical infrastructure systems characterized by a high level of interdependency that can lead to cascading failures after any disaster.Many approaches can be used to analyze infrastructural interdepende...Lifelines are critical infrastructure systems characterized by a high level of interdependency that can lead to cascading failures after any disaster.Many approaches can be used to analyze infrastructural interdependencies,but they are usually not able to describe the sequence of events during emergencies.Therefore,interdependencies need to be modeled also taking into account the time effects.The methodology proposed in this paper is based on a modified version of the Input-output Inoperability Model and returns the probabilities of failure for each node of the system.Lifelines are modeled using graph theory,while perturbations,representing a natural or man-made disaster,are applied to the elements of the network following predetermined rules.The cascading effects among interdependent networks have been simulated using a spatial multilayer approach,while the use of an adjacency tensor allows to consider the temporal dimension and its effects.The method has been tested on a case study based on the 2011 Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear disaster.Different configurations of the system have been analyzed and their probability of occurrence evaluated.Two models of the nuclear power plant have been developed to evaluate how different spatial scales and levels of detail affect the results.展开更多
This study combines multi-regional inputoutput(MRIO)model with linear programming(LP)model to explore economic structure adjustment strategies for the reduction of carbon dioxide(CO_(2))emissions.A particular feature ...This study combines multi-regional inputoutput(MRIO)model with linear programming(LP)model to explore economic structure adjustment strategies for the reduction of carbon dioxide(CO_(2))emissions.A particular feature of this study is the identification of the optimal regulation sequence of final products in various regions to reduce CO_(2)emissions with the minimum loss in gross domestic product(GDP).By using China's MRIO tables 2017 with 28 regions and 42 economic sectors,results show that reduction in final demand leads to simultaneous reductions in GDP and CO_(2)emissions.Nevertheless,certain demand side regulation strategy can be adopted to lower CO_(2)emissions at the smallest loss of economic growth.Several key final products,such as metallurgy,nonmetal,metal,and chemical products,should first be regulated to reduce CO_(2)emissions at the minimum loss in GDP.Most of these key products concentrate in the coastal developed regions in China.The proposed MRIO-LP model considers the inter-relationship among various sectors and regions,and can aid policy makers in designing effective policy for industrial structure adjustment at the regional level to achieve the national environmental and economic targets.展开更多
China has huge differences among its regions in terms of socio-economic development, industrial structure, natural resource endowments, and technological advancement. These differences have created complicated linkage...China has huge differences among its regions in terms of socio-economic development, industrial structure, natural resource endowments, and technological advancement. These differences have created complicated linkages between regions in China. In this study, building upon gravity model and location quotient techniques, we develop a sector-specific model to estimate inter-provincial trade flows, which is the base for making a multi-regional input-output table. In the model, we distinguish sectors with less intra-sector input from those with larger intra-sector input, and assume that the former sectors tend to compete among regions while the latter tend to cooperate among regions. Then we apply this new method of inter-regional trade estimation to three sectors： food and tobacco, metal smelting and proc- essing, and electrical equipment. The results show that selection of bandwidth has a significant impact on the assessment of inter-regional trade. Trade flows are more scattered with the increase of bandwidths. As a result, bandwidth reflects the spatial concentration of geo- graphical activities, which should be distinguishable for different industries. We conclude that the sector-specific spatial model can increase the credibility of estimates of inter-regional trade flows.展开更多
Aircraft industry is very important to the economy and security of a country,and aircraft industry clusters have already existed in the world.Based on Input-Output data and Czamanski's method,the aircraft industry...Aircraft industry is very important to the economy and security of a country,and aircraft industry clusters have already existed in the world.Based on Input-Output data and Czamanski's method,the aircraft industry clusters in China and USA were identified quantitatively in this paper.Furthermore,this article carried out comparison analyses of the identification results.The research finds out:1) a mature aircraft industry cluster would be generally composed of 7 industrial subgroups,including aircraft industry,metal making and products manufacturing industry,machinery and equipment industry,electronics industry,automobile industry,material industry and others,and electronics industrial subgroup will play a more and more important role in the cluster;2) in the range of industry-covering,the level of industry-linkage,and the economic performance,there is a tremendously large gap between the aircraft industry cluster of China and that of USA;3) the spatial evolution of these clusters or centers is highly consistent with the diffusion of a country's industrialization.Finally,based on those findings,the paper gives some advice on how to improve Czamanski's method and what China should do to develop its own competitive aircraft industry:1) China should employ institutional innovation,and turn to be market-oriented;2) China should abandon the traditional pattern of closed-development,and strengthen the interaction and collaboration between aircraft industry and related industries,especially the electronics industry;3) China should rectify and perfect its spatial development planning of aircraft industry.展开更多
The paper established a double filtering method (DFM) to visualize the skeleton industrial structure (SIS) of one economy and find its evolution rule. Different with the previous researches, this method is from a new ...The paper established a double filtering method (DFM) to visualize the skeleton industrial structure (SIS) of one economy and find its evolution rule. Different with the previous researches, this method is from a new view of industrial conjunctions combined by leading sectors to depict the industrial structure. It was proved that the leading sector selected by DFM must be key sector selected by Hirschman-Rasmussen method. Applied DFM to input-output tables of China, Japan and USA and MFA to Japan, and USA, the results analysis showed that DFM could overtake the two main shortcomings of minimum flow analysis (MFA), scratch SIS of each economy with its own characteristics, visualize the general evolution rules of the industrial structure with crisscrossed conjunctions among leading sectors.展开更多
The Antarctic Ice Sheet(AIS)has been losing ice mass and contributing to the rise in the global sea-level(GSL)for the last 4 decades,as quantified by using satellite observations.We developed a framework for implement...The Antarctic Ice Sheet(AIS)has been losing ice mass and contributing to the rise in the global sea-level(GSL)for the last 4 decades,as quantified by using satellite observations.We developed a framework for implementing the state-of-the-art input-output(IO)method that has the advantage of explicit estimation of the mass balance of individual glaciers,basins and the continent.We estimated the mass balance of the AIS from 2013 to 2018 using improved observations and updated datasets recently made available,including annual ice flow velocity maps from the Inter-mission Time Series of Land Ice Velocity and Elevation(ITS_LIVE)dataset,the Bed Machine and the Princess Elizabeth Land(PEL)Earth System Science Data(ESSD)datasets,and the surface mass balance from the RACMO 2.3 system.For example,using the improved ice thickness data,the proposed method for ice discharge estimation enables a 10%reduction of uncertainty in ice discharge.During the period of 2013–2018,an ice discharge acceleration of 6.9±6.5 Gt yr^(–2)in West Antarctica(WA)was detected,which contributed significantly to the estimated mass loss of~1069 Gt(–178.2±108.9 Gt yr^(–1))in the AIS.On the other hand,Queen Maud Land,East Antarctica(EA),showed clearly a mass gain rate of 56.0±10.0 Gt yr^(–1)due to the regional increase in surface mass balance.Our results extended the estimation period by 3 years in comparison to the published study using the same annual velocity maps from the ITS_LIVE dataset.Furthermore,our results,along with those from other studies using the IO method,reassures the acceleration of recent mass loss in WA and Wilkes Land in EA,which are caused by glacier thinning and ice shelf basal melting.Compared with the long-term mass balance record since 1979,our results suggest that the mass loss in AIS accelerated in the last decade.The developed framework can be modified for mass balance estimation of the AIS or for other ice sheets by using velocity maps from other satellite data or from different periods.展开更多
Optimizing industrial structure is an important research object of human-economic geography, and it is also the object of government departments to strengthen macro-control. This has become even greater problem that C...Optimizing industrial structure is an important research object of human-economic geography, and it is also the object of government departments to strengthen macro-control. This has become even greater problem that China has entered the "new normal" in recent years. The study uses a multi-regional input-output model, with linear programming to build an optimal model of industrial structure as well as a model of optimization degree under the energy constraint. The results of the study revealed that:(1) the degree of optimization of industrial structure in Anhui Province is optimal(0.763), while that of Shanxi Province is the lowest(0.662);(2) the degree of optimization of industrial structure is negatively related to energy consumption per unit output value and the proportion of heavy industry; and(3) overall, central China should maintain or moderately increase the proportions of resource-based industry, greatly increase the proportions of manufacturing, including transport and telecommunications equipment, computers and other electronic equipment, and moderately reduce the proportions of smelting and pressing of metals and non-metal mineral products. In terms of service industries, the region should greatly increase the proportions of the production and supply of natural gas and tap water, moderately reduce or maintain the proportions of transport and storage as well as tourism, and maintain or moderately reduce the proportions of wholesale trade, retail trade and catering services.展开更多
In this work, several procedures for the fault detection and isolation （FDI） on general aviation aircraft sensors are presented. In order to provide a comprehensive wide-pectrum treatment, both linear and nonlinear,...In this work, several procedures for the fault detection and isolation （FDI） on general aviation aircraft sensors are presented. In order to provide a comprehensive wide-pectrum treatment, both linear and nonlinear, model-based and data-driven methodologies are considered. The main contributions of the paper are related to the development of both FDI polynomial method （PM） and FDI scheme based on the nonLinear geometric approach （NLGA）. As to the PM, the obtained results highlight a good trade-off between solution complexity and resulting performances. Moreover, the proposed PM is especially useful when robust solutions are required for minimising the effects of modelling errors and noise, while maximising fault sensitivity. As to the NLGA, the proposed work is the first development and robust application of the NLGA to an aircraft model in flight conditions characterised by tight-oupled longitudinal and lateral dynamics. In order to verify the robustness of the residual generators related to the previous FDI techniques, the simulation results adopt a typical aircraft reference trajectory embedding several steady-tate flight conditions, such as straight flight phases and coordinated turns. Moreover, the simulations are performed in the presence of both measurement and modelling errors. Finally, extensive simulations are used for assessing the overall capabilities of the developed FDI schemes and a comparison with neural networks （NN） and unknown input Kalman filter （UIKF） diagnosis methods is performed.展开更多
Research of airport＇ s influence on regional economy is conducted based on system dynamics, combining with input- output method and multiplier effect. SD model was used for visualizing, modeling and simulating airpor...Research of airport＇ s influence on regional economy is conducted based on system dynamics, combining with input- output method and multiplier effect. SD model was used for visualizing, modeling and simulating airport-regional economy system behavior. Model validation using the example of the Xi＇ an airport proved model simulated system behavior accurately. Besides, the result of scenario development simulation provided a new perspective for the practice of airport management and policy-making.展开更多
Interregional trade facilitates the transfer of implied human economic well-being(HEW)and integrated environmental pressure(IEP).The mismatch between them leads to environmental inequality.A comprehensive evaluation i...Interregional trade facilitates the transfer of implied human economic well-being(HEW)and integrated environmental pressure(IEP).The mismatch between them leads to environmental inequality.A comprehensive evaluation index system for HEW is constructed.Based on the multiregional input-output(MRIO)model,the HEW,water,carbon,and land footprints of the Hexi Corridor Economic Belt in China were measured in 2012,2015,and 2017.Three types of environmental footprints were integrated into the IEP,and structural decomposition analysis(SDA)was used to explore the interregional transfer and driving factors of changes in HEW and IEP.A regional environmental inequality(REI)index was constructed to assess the environmental inequality among cities in the Hexi Corridor.Results show that environmental inequality in the Hexi Corridor is severe and intensifying.The focus is that Jiuquan absorbs more HEW from other cities in the interregional trade,but transfers IEP to Jiayuguan and other places.The main factors affecting the flow changes of HEW and IEP are production structure and final demand structure.Due to differences in resource endowments,Jiayuguan bears great environmental pressure without sufficient economic compensation,which is unfavorable for regional coordinated and sustainable development.Therefore,it is recommended to introduce clean production technology,transfer polluting production to reduce the productive environmental footprint of Jiayuguan,develop high-tech,and promote the growth of regional HEW driven by surrounding cities.The study findings help address environmental inequality and promote sustainable growth of economic well-being in Western China and provide a reference for similar research.展开更多
Understanding the impacts of compound hazards on economic systems is essential for integrated disaster risk management.However,quantifying the ripple effects remains challenging,especially as the relative contribution...Understanding the impacts of compound hazards on economic systems is essential for integrated disaster risk management.However,quantifying the ripple effects remains challenging,especially as the relative contributions of each hazard are unclear.Compared to the uncertainty of demand-driven impacts,supply-side shocks are more pronounced and quantifiable,providing a practical pathway to separate the effects.This study proposed a supply-side methodological framework for assessing the ripple effects of compound hazards,focusing on the contributions of each hazard to overall economic disruptions.Overall production capacity loss rates(PCLRs)across industries were evaluated using on-site survey data.A time series model,utilizing urban travel intensity big data,was used to estimate the PCLRs attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic.A mixed multi-regional input-output(mixed-MRIO)model was constructed to assess the ripple effects.The framework was applied to the 17 July 2020 flood in Enshi City,Hubei Province,China,during the COVID-19 pandemic.The results indicate that overall ripple effects exceeded direct production capacity losses.The ratio of production capacity losses attributed to the flood versus the pandemic was approximately 6:4,but it increased to 7:3 for ripple effects.Economic core cities exhibited greater economic stability as evidenced by lower loss rates,while more dependent small-and medium-sized cities were more vulnerable.The secondary industry was sensitive to floods,and the tertiary industry to the pandemic.The study highlights the importance of integrating field surveys and travel intensity big data with economic modeling to evaluate ripple effects,offering new insights into compound hazards impact assessment and management strategies.展开更多
Virtual water trade plays a pivotal role in alleviating water scarcity in rapidly urbanizing drylands,and accurately assessing the spillover of local water scarcity pressure to other regions through such trade is esse...Virtual water trade plays a pivotal role in alleviating water scarcity in rapidly urbanizing drylands,and accurately assessing the spillover of local water scarcity pressure to other regions through such trade is essential for sustainable development in these areas.However,systematic research on the spillover of water scarcity risks through virtual water trade and its transmission pathways in arid and semi-arid regions remains relatively limited.Taking the Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos-Yulin(HBOY)urban agglomeration as an example,this study integrated the multi-regional input-output model and structural path analysis to assess the spillover of water scarcity risk through virtual water trade and trace key transmission paths.We found that over 90%of HBOY’s water scarcity risk was transferred to regions experiencing severe or extreme water stress.Spatially,Inner Mongolia and Ningxia were the primary recipients,absorbing 37.2%and 14.5%of HBOY’s total spillover of water scarcity risk,respectively.Sectorally,62.0%of the risk spillover originated from HBOY’s agriculture,light industry,and construction sectors and was passed to the agricultural sector in external regions.The most important risk transmission path was from HBOY’s agriculture to Inner Mongolia’s agriculture,accounting for 18.3%of HBOY’s total risk spillover.Additionally,potential loss due to insufficient external virtual water supply constituted nearly one-third of HBOY’s total economic loss from water scarcity.We recommend that rapidly urbanizing drylands and their trade partners should actively develop a cross-regional collaborative management system to mitigate the adverse effects of risk spillover.展开更多
Given that it was a once-in-a-century emergency event,the confinement measures related to the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic caused diverse disruptions and changes in life and work patterns.These changes s...Given that it was a once-in-a-century emergency event,the confinement measures related to the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic caused diverse disruptions and changes in life and work patterns.These changes significantly affected water consumption both during and after the pandemic,with direct and indirect consequences on biodiversity.However,there has been a lack of holistic evaluation of these responses.Here,we propose a novel framework to study the impacts of this unique global emergency event by embedding an environmentally extended supply-constrained global multi-regional input-output model(MRIO)into the drivers-pressure-state-impact-response(DPSIR)framework.This framework allowed us to develop scenarios related to COVID-19 confinement measures to quantify country-sector-specific changes in freshwater consumption and the associated changes in biodiversity for the period of 2020-2025.The results suggest progressively diminishing impacts due to the implementation of COVID-19 vaccines and the socio-economic system’s self-adjustment to the new normal.In 2020,the confinement measures were estimated to decrease global water consumption by about 5.7% on average across all scenarios when compared with the baseline level with no confinement measures.Further,such a decrease is estimated to lead to a reduction of around 5% in the related pressure on biodiversity.Given the interdependencies and interactions across global supply chains,even those countries and sectors that were not directly affected by the COVID-19 shocks experienced significant impacts:Our results indicate that the supply chain propagations contributed to 79% of the total estimated decrease in water consumption and 84%of the reduction in biodiversity loss on average.Our study demonstrates that the MRIO-enhanced DSPIR framework can help quantify resource pressures and the resultant environmental impacts across supply chains when facing a global emergency event.Further,we recommend the development of more locally based water conservation measures—to mitigate the effects of trade disruptions—and the explicit inclusion of water resources in post-pandemic recovery schemes.In addition,innovations that help conserve natural resources are essential for maintaining environmental gains in the post-pandemic world.展开更多
CO2 emissions embodied in trade have an important and far-reaching impact on CO2 emissions reduction obligations. Based on a multi-regional inputoutput analysis, this paper calculates China＇s provincial CO2 emissions...CO2 emissions embodied in trade have an important and far-reaching impact on CO2 emissions reduction obligations. Based on a multi-regional inputoutput analysis, this paper calculates China＇s provincial CO2 emissions embodied in trade and analyzes CO2 emissions embodied in trade per unit of value of trade in 30 Chinese provinces. Several climate policy options that potentially reduce the impact of trade on individual provinces are discussed. One finding from this study is that provincial CO2 emissions embodied in trade accounted for approximately 60.02% of China＇s CO2 emissions in 2007. The CO2 emissions embodied in imports and exports for 30 Chinese provinces differ widely, and remarkable differences in the CO2 emissions embodied in trade per unit of value of trade exist. Another important finding, is that if provinces take binding commitments as a part of a coalition, instead of as individual provinces, then the impacts of trade can be reduced. Notably, however, the extent of reduction in a coalition varies in different provinces.展开更多
There has been considerable debate about the major factors responsible for the dramatic decline of China＇s energy intensity in the 1980s and 1990s. However, few detailed analysis has been done to explain the fluctuat...There has been considerable debate about the major factors responsible for the dramatic decline of China＇s energy intensity in the 1980s and 1990s. However, few detailed analysis has been done to explain the fluctuation in energy intensity during 2002-005. In this paper, we use the structural decomposition analysis （SDA） to decompose energy intensity into five determining factors： Energy input coefficient, technology coefficient （Leontief inverse coefficient）, final demands structure by product, final demands by category and final energy consumption coefficient. We then further decompose two coefficients, energy input coefficient and technology coefficient, into structure and real coefficient. Empirical study is carried out based on the energy-input-output tables from 1987 to 2005 in 2000 constant price. The results show that between 1987 and 2002, energy input structure accounts for most of the decline in energy intensity. However, the input structure and final demands structure by product explain the increase of the energy intensity between 2002 and 2005.展开更多
基金supported by the National Social Science Fund of China (Grant No. 15CGL048)
文摘Based on 2012 input-output table of Shandong province and the official statistics, this article uses the input-output analysis method to build the input-output table. On the basis of the development of service industry in Shandong province's ability, we make a theoretical analysis framework of a comprehensive in-depth analysis on pull employment, creatively will cost tax rate, fully and completely labor capital and the combination of both the industry development space. So that the industry's ability to pull the employment can be considered, and to realize rapid and sustained development of service industry in Shandong province.
基金The authors would like to thank Key Projects in the National Science&Technology Pillar Program during the Twelfth Five Year Plan Period[grant number 2012BAC20B03]Beijing Natural Science Foundation[grant number 9112008]for supporting this research
文摘Under the pressure of sustained growth in energy consumption in China,the implementation of a carbon pricing mechanism is an effective economic policy measure for promoting emission reduction,as well as a hotspot of research among scholars and policy makers.In this paper,the effects of carbon prices on Beijing's economy are analyzed using input-output tables.The carbon price costs are levied in accordance with the products'embodied carbon emission.By calculation,given the carbon price rate of 10 RMB/t-CO_2,the total carbon costs of Beijing account for approximately 0.22-0.40%of its gross revenue the same year.Among all industries,construction bears the largest carbon cost Among export sectors,the coal mining and washing industry has much higher export carbon price intensity than other industries.Apart from traditional energy-intensive industries,tertiary industry,which accounts for more than 70%of Beijing's economy,also bears a major carbon cost because of its large economic size.However,from 2007 to 2010,adjustment of the investment structure has reduced the emission intensity in investment sectors,contributing to the reduction of overall emissions and carbon price intensity.
文摘Input-output analysis is widely employed to analyze inventories of a product＇s embodied energy and environmental burdens. However, input-output analysis focuses only on the production stage and ignores other life cycle phases. Input-output analysis is not exactly a LCA （life cycle assessment） method in the strict sense of ISO 14040 standards, which must cover all stages of a product＇s life cycle, ＂from the cradle to the grave＂, so to speak. A tiered hybrid LCA is a useful tool that covers all life cycle stages by combining a process analysis with the input-output analysis method. This study aims to extend input-output analysis to the use, disposal, and recycling stages by using matrix-based method. The new method is applied to the analysis of the embodied CO2 emissions of a refrigerator as a case study. The entire life cycle C02 emissions are estimated to be 2.9 tons, including indirect emissions, and the reduction in CO2 emissions due to recycling steel scrap is calculated as 48.5 kg. The authors conclude that the new method enables a consistent inventory analysis for all life cycle stages by combining process and input-output methods.
文摘China is the largest CH4 emitter in the world. Given the importance of CH4 in greenhouse gas emission inventories, the characteristics ofChina＇s CH4 emissions at different scales deserve to be fully understood. Presented in this paper is an interprovincial input output embodi- ment analysis of China＇s regional CH4 emissions in 2007, based on the most recently available multi-regional input- output table, and relevant CH4 emissions data. The results show that the eastern, central and western areas contribute to 48.2%, 28.6%, and 23.3% of the national total embodied emissions, respectively. Guangdong has the highest level of embodied CH4 emissions among all of the 30 regions. The Agriculture sector produces the most embodied CH4 emissions in final demand, followed by the Construction, Food Production and Tobacco Processing, and Other Service Activities sectors. Significant net transfers of embodied CH4 emission flows are identified from the central and western areas to the eastern area via interregional trade. Shanxi is the largest interregional exporter of embodied CH4 emissions. In contrast, Guangdong is the largest interregional importer. Energy activities, agricultural activities, and waste management comprise 65.6%, 30.7%, and 3.7% of the total embodied CH4 emissions in interregional trade, respectively. By using consumption-based accounting principles, the emis- sion magnitudes, per capita emissions, and emission intensities of most eastern regions increase remarkably, while those of some central and western regions decrease largely. To achieve regional CH4 emission mitigation, comprehensive mitigation measures should be designed under consideration of regional transfer of emission responsibility.
基金This paper is a phased achievement of the humanities and social sciences project of the Chongqing Municipal Education Commission entitled“Research on the Integrated Development of the Digital Economy and Manufacturing Industry in Chongqing under the Development Paradigm of Dual Circulation”(Project No.:21SKGH229).
文摘The evolving dynamics of industrial convergence among the member countries of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)framework have emerged as a significant subject that merits in-depth consideration and analysis.This study initially employs multi-regional input-output(MRIO)data and the social network analysis(SNA)method to delineate the levels and variation trends of this industrial convergence across the RCEP member countries.It then delves into the positive effects of this convergence phenomenon on the trade and investment fields of the member countries.The research findings indicate:(a)In 2006 and 2015,before the implementation of the RCEP,the RCEP member countries displayed a relatively close industrial convergence.The convergence levels exhibited a general upward trend on both the supply and the demand sides,but there were significant disparities in the levels of industrial convergence among the member countries.Furthermore,while the convergence in the three economic sectors showed an increasing trend,the development was uneven across the board.(b)Since the implementation of the RCEP,the trade ties among the member countries within the region have strengthened significantly,and the interplay between the countries’industrial and supply chains has been characterized by high-quality collaboration and demonstrated remarkable resilience.In addition,the convergence in the investment fields of the RCEP member countries and their respective industries has unleashed a wave of positive synergies.These findings offer valuable insights that can serve as a robust foundation for formulating effective policies to advance the growth and prosperity of the RCEP region.
基金the European Research Council under the Grant agreement no.ERC_IDEAL RESCUE_637842 of the project IDEAL RESCUE_Integrated Design and Control of Sustainable Communities during Emergencies.
文摘Lifelines are critical infrastructure systems characterized by a high level of interdependency that can lead to cascading failures after any disaster.Many approaches can be used to analyze infrastructural interdependencies,but they are usually not able to describe the sequence of events during emergencies.Therefore,interdependencies need to be modeled also taking into account the time effects.The methodology proposed in this paper is based on a modified version of the Input-output Inoperability Model and returns the probabilities of failure for each node of the system.Lifelines are modeled using graph theory,while perturbations,representing a natural or man-made disaster,are applied to the elements of the network following predetermined rules.The cascading effects among interdependent networks have been simulated using a spatial multilayer approach,while the use of an adjacency tensor allows to consider the temporal dimension and its effects.The method has been tested on a case study based on the 2011 Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear disaster.Different configurations of the system have been analyzed and their probability of occurrence evaluated.Two models of the nuclear power plant have been developed to evaluate how different spatial scales and levels of detail affect the results.
基金This work is supported by the National Research Foundation,Prime Ministers Office,Singapore under its Campus for Research Excellence and Technological Enterprise(CREATE)programme,and by the Energy and Environmental Sustainability for Megacities(E2S2)Phase II program of the National Research Foundation,Prime Ministers Office,Singapore under its CREATE programme。
文摘This study combines multi-regional inputoutput(MRIO)model with linear programming(LP)model to explore economic structure adjustment strategies for the reduction of carbon dioxide(CO_(2))emissions.A particular feature of this study is the identification of the optimal regulation sequence of final products in various regions to reduce CO_(2)emissions with the minimum loss in gross domestic product(GDP).By using China's MRIO tables 2017 with 28 regions and 42 economic sectors,results show that reduction in final demand leads to simultaneous reductions in GDP and CO_(2)emissions.Nevertheless,certain demand side regulation strategy can be adopted to lower CO_(2)emissions at the smallest loss of economic growth.Several key final products,such as metallurgy,nonmetal,metal,and chemical products,should first be regulated to reduce CO_(2)emissions at the minimum loss in GDP.Most of these key products concentrate in the coastal developed regions in China.The proposed MRIO-LP model considers the inter-relationship among various sectors and regions,and can aid policy makers in designing effective policy for industrial structure adjustment at the regional level to achieve the national environmental and economic targets.
基金National Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars of China, No.41125005
文摘China has huge differences among its regions in terms of socio-economic development, industrial structure, natural resource endowments, and technological advancement. These differences have created complicated linkages between regions in China. In this study, building upon gravity model and location quotient techniques, we develop a sector-specific model to estimate inter-provincial trade flows, which is the base for making a multi-regional input-output table. In the model, we distinguish sectors with less intra-sector input from those with larger intra-sector input, and assume that the former sectors tend to compete among regions while the latter tend to cooperate among regions. Then we apply this new method of inter-regional trade estimation to three sectors： food and tobacco, metal smelting and proc- essing, and electrical equipment. The results show that selection of bandwidth has a significant impact on the assessment of inter-regional trade. Trade flows are more scattered with the increase of bandwidths. As a result, bandwidth reflects the spatial concentration of geo- graphical activities, which should be distinguishable for different industries. We conclude that the sector-specific spatial model can increase the credibility of estimates of inter-regional trade flows.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.40635026,40801050)Knowledge Innovation Programs of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.KZCXZ-YW-Q10-4)
文摘Aircraft industry is very important to the economy and security of a country,and aircraft industry clusters have already existed in the world.Based on Input-Output data and Czamanski's method,the aircraft industry clusters in China and USA were identified quantitatively in this paper.Furthermore,this article carried out comparison analyses of the identification results.The research finds out:1) a mature aircraft industry cluster would be generally composed of 7 industrial subgroups,including aircraft industry,metal making and products manufacturing industry,machinery and equipment industry,electronics industry,automobile industry,material industry and others,and electronics industrial subgroup will play a more and more important role in the cluster;2) in the range of industry-covering,the level of industry-linkage,and the economic performance,there is a tremendously large gap between the aircraft industry cluster of China and that of USA;3) the spatial evolution of these clusters or centers is highly consistent with the diffusion of a country's industrialization.Finally,based on those findings,the paper gives some advice on how to improve Czamanski's method and what China should do to develop its own competitive aircraft industry:1) China should employ institutional innovation,and turn to be market-oriented;2) China should abandon the traditional pattern of closed-development,and strengthen the interaction and collaboration between aircraft industry and related industries,especially the electronics industry;3) China should rectify and perfect its spatial development planning of aircraft industry.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.71173210
文摘The paper established a double filtering method (DFM) to visualize the skeleton industrial structure (SIS) of one economy and find its evolution rule. Different with the previous researches, this method is from a new view of industrial conjunctions combined by leading sectors to depict the industrial structure. It was proved that the leading sector selected by DFM must be key sector selected by Hirschman-Rasmussen method. Applied DFM to input-output tables of China, Japan and USA and MFA to Japan, and USA, the results analysis showed that DFM could overtake the two main shortcomings of minimum flow analysis (MFA), scratch SIS of each economy with its own characteristics, visualize the general evolution rules of the industrial structure with crisscrossed conjunctions among leading sectors.
基金supported by the National Key Research&Development Program of China(Grant No.2017YFA0603102)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41730102,41771471,41941006&4201101408)+1 种基金the Shanghai Science and Technology Development Funds(Grant No.21ZR1469700)supported by the Central University Research Fund。
文摘The Antarctic Ice Sheet(AIS)has been losing ice mass and contributing to the rise in the global sea-level(GSL)for the last 4 decades,as quantified by using satellite observations.We developed a framework for implementing the state-of-the-art input-output(IO)method that has the advantage of explicit estimation of the mass balance of individual glaciers,basins and the continent.We estimated the mass balance of the AIS from 2013 to 2018 using improved observations and updated datasets recently made available,including annual ice flow velocity maps from the Inter-mission Time Series of Land Ice Velocity and Elevation(ITS_LIVE)dataset,the Bed Machine and the Princess Elizabeth Land(PEL)Earth System Science Data(ESSD)datasets,and the surface mass balance from the RACMO 2.3 system.For example,using the improved ice thickness data,the proposed method for ice discharge estimation enables a 10%reduction of uncertainty in ice discharge.During the period of 2013–2018,an ice discharge acceleration of 6.9±6.5 Gt yr^(–2)in West Antarctica(WA)was detected,which contributed significantly to the estimated mass loss of~1069 Gt(–178.2±108.9 Gt yr^(–1))in the AIS.On the other hand,Queen Maud Land,East Antarctica(EA),showed clearly a mass gain rate of 56.0±10.0 Gt yr^(–1)due to the regional increase in surface mass balance.Our results extended the estimation period by 3 years in comparison to the published study using the same annual velocity maps from the ITS_LIVE dataset.Furthermore,our results,along with those from other studies using the IO method,reassures the acceleration of recent mass loss in WA and Wilkes Land in EA,which are caused by glacier thinning and ice shelf basal melting.Compared with the long-term mass balance record since 1979,our results suggest that the mass loss in AIS accelerated in the last decade.The developed framework can be modified for mass balance estimation of the AIS or for other ice sheets by using velocity maps from other satellite data or from different periods.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41271146,No.41201171
文摘Optimizing industrial structure is an important research object of human-economic geography, and it is also the object of government departments to strengthen macro-control. This has become even greater problem that China has entered the "new normal" in recent years. The study uses a multi-regional input-output model, with linear programming to build an optimal model of industrial structure as well as a model of optimization degree under the energy constraint. The results of the study revealed that:(1) the degree of optimization of industrial structure in Anhui Province is optimal(0.763), while that of Shanxi Province is the lowest(0.662);(2) the degree of optimization of industrial structure is negatively related to energy consumption per unit output value and the proportion of heavy industry; and(3) overall, central China should maintain or moderately increase the proportions of resource-based industry, greatly increase the proportions of manufacturing, including transport and telecommunications equipment, computers and other electronic equipment, and moderately reduce the proportions of smelting and pressing of metals and non-metal mineral products. In terms of service industries, the region should greatly increase the proportions of the production and supply of natural gas and tap water, moderately reduce or maintain the proportions of transport and storage as well as tourism, and maintain or moderately reduce the proportions of wholesale trade, retail trade and catering services.
文摘In this work, several procedures for the fault detection and isolation （FDI） on general aviation aircraft sensors are presented. In order to provide a comprehensive wide-pectrum treatment, both linear and nonlinear, model-based and data-driven methodologies are considered. The main contributions of the paper are related to the development of both FDI polynomial method （PM） and FDI scheme based on the nonLinear geometric approach （NLGA）. As to the PM, the obtained results highlight a good trade-off between solution complexity and resulting performances. Moreover, the proposed PM is especially useful when robust solutions are required for minimising the effects of modelling errors and noise, while maximising fault sensitivity. As to the NLGA, the proposed work is the first development and robust application of the NLGA to an aircraft model in flight conditions characterised by tight-oupled longitudinal and lateral dynamics. In order to verify the robustness of the residual generators related to the previous FDI techniques, the simulation results adopt a typical aircraft reference trajectory embedding several steady-tate flight conditions, such as straight flight phases and coordinated turns. Moreover, the simulations are performed in the presence of both measurement and modelling errors. Finally, extensive simulations are used for assessing the overall capabilities of the developed FDI schemes and a comparison with neural networks （NN） and unknown input Kalman filter （UIKF） diagnosis methods is performed.
文摘Research of airport＇ s influence on regional economy is conducted based on system dynamics, combining with input- output method and multiplier effect. SD model was used for visualizing, modeling and simulating airport-regional economy system behavior. Model validation using the example of the Xi＇ an airport proved model simulated system behavior accurately. Besides, the result of scenario development simulation provided a new perspective for the practice of airport management and policy-making.
基金supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(STEP),China(No.2019QZKK0608)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,China(No.2023MS154).
文摘Interregional trade facilitates the transfer of implied human economic well-being(HEW)and integrated environmental pressure(IEP).The mismatch between them leads to environmental inequality.A comprehensive evaluation index system for HEW is constructed.Based on the multiregional input-output(MRIO)model,the HEW,water,carbon,and land footprints of the Hexi Corridor Economic Belt in China were measured in 2012,2015,and 2017.Three types of environmental footprints were integrated into the IEP,and structural decomposition analysis(SDA)was used to explore the interregional transfer and driving factors of changes in HEW and IEP.A regional environmental inequality(REI)index was constructed to assess the environmental inequality among cities in the Hexi Corridor.Results show that environmental inequality in the Hexi Corridor is severe and intensifying.The focus is that Jiuquan absorbs more HEW from other cities in the interregional trade,but transfers IEP to Jiayuguan and other places.The main factors affecting the flow changes of HEW and IEP are production structure and final demand structure.Due to differences in resource endowments,Jiayuguan bears great environmental pressure without sufficient economic compensation,which is unfavorable for regional coordinated and sustainable development.Therefore,it is recommended to introduce clean production technology,transfer polluting production to reduce the productive environmental footprint of Jiayuguan,develop high-tech,and promote the growth of regional HEW driven by surrounding cities.The study findings help address environmental inequality and promote sustainable growth of economic well-being in Western China and provide a reference for similar research.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42477498,42177448).
文摘Understanding the impacts of compound hazards on economic systems is essential for integrated disaster risk management.However,quantifying the ripple effects remains challenging,especially as the relative contributions of each hazard are unclear.Compared to the uncertainty of demand-driven impacts,supply-side shocks are more pronounced and quantifiable,providing a practical pathway to separate the effects.This study proposed a supply-side methodological framework for assessing the ripple effects of compound hazards,focusing on the contributions of each hazard to overall economic disruptions.Overall production capacity loss rates(PCLRs)across industries were evaluated using on-site survey data.A time series model,utilizing urban travel intensity big data,was used to estimate the PCLRs attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic.A mixed multi-regional input-output(mixed-MRIO)model was constructed to assess the ripple effects.The framework was applied to the 17 July 2020 flood in Enshi City,Hubei Province,China,during the COVID-19 pandemic.The results indicate that overall ripple effects exceeded direct production capacity losses.The ratio of production capacity losses attributed to the flood versus the pandemic was approximately 6:4,but it increased to 7:3 for ripple effects.Economic core cities exhibited greater economic stability as evidenced by lower loss rates,while more dependent small-and medium-sized cities were more vulnerable.The secondary industry was sensitive to floods,and the tertiary industry to the pandemic.The study highlights the importance of integrating field surveys and travel intensity big data with economic modeling to evaluate ripple effects,offering new insights into compound hazards impact assessment and management strategies.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(grant No.42371296 and 42361144859)BNU-FGS Global Environmental Change Program(grant No.2023-GC-ZYTS-08)。
文摘Virtual water trade plays a pivotal role in alleviating water scarcity in rapidly urbanizing drylands,and accurately assessing the spillover of local water scarcity pressure to other regions through such trade is essential for sustainable development in these areas.However,systematic research on the spillover of water scarcity risks through virtual water trade and its transmission pathways in arid and semi-arid regions remains relatively limited.Taking the Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos-Yulin(HBOY)urban agglomeration as an example,this study integrated the multi-regional input-output model and structural path analysis to assess the spillover of water scarcity risk through virtual water trade and trace key transmission paths.We found that over 90%of HBOY’s water scarcity risk was transferred to regions experiencing severe or extreme water stress.Spatially,Inner Mongolia and Ningxia were the primary recipients,absorbing 37.2%and 14.5%of HBOY’s total spillover of water scarcity risk,respectively.Sectorally,62.0%of the risk spillover originated from HBOY’s agriculture,light industry,and construction sectors and was passed to the agricultural sector in external regions.The most important risk transmission path was from HBOY’s agriculture to Inner Mongolia’s agriculture,accounting for 18.3%of HBOY’s total risk spillover.Additionally,potential loss due to insufficient external virtual water supply constituted nearly one-third of HBOY’s total economic loss from water scarcity.We recommend that rapidly urbanizing drylands and their trade partners should actively develop a cross-regional collaborative management system to mitigate the adverse effects of risk spillover.
基金supported by Aalto University and the Henan Provincial Key Laboratory of Hydrosphere and Watershed Water SecurityAdditional support was provided by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42361144001,72304112,72074136,and 72104129)the Key Program of International Cooperation,Bureau of International Cooperation,the Chinese Academy of Sciences(131551KYSB20210030).
文摘Given that it was a once-in-a-century emergency event,the confinement measures related to the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic caused diverse disruptions and changes in life and work patterns.These changes significantly affected water consumption both during and after the pandemic,with direct and indirect consequences on biodiversity.However,there has been a lack of holistic evaluation of these responses.Here,we propose a novel framework to study the impacts of this unique global emergency event by embedding an environmentally extended supply-constrained global multi-regional input-output model(MRIO)into the drivers-pressure-state-impact-response(DPSIR)framework.This framework allowed us to develop scenarios related to COVID-19 confinement measures to quantify country-sector-specific changes in freshwater consumption and the associated changes in biodiversity for the period of 2020-2025.The results suggest progressively diminishing impacts due to the implementation of COVID-19 vaccines and the socio-economic system’s self-adjustment to the new normal.In 2020,the confinement measures were estimated to decrease global water consumption by about 5.7% on average across all scenarios when compared with the baseline level with no confinement measures.Further,such a decrease is estimated to lead to a reduction of around 5% in the related pressure on biodiversity.Given the interdependencies and interactions across global supply chains,even those countries and sectors that were not directly affected by the COVID-19 shocks experienced significant impacts:Our results indicate that the supply chain propagations contributed to 79% of the total estimated decrease in water consumption and 84%of the reduction in biodiversity loss on average.Our study demonstrates that the MRIO-enhanced DSPIR framework can help quantify resource pressures and the resultant environmental impacts across supply chains when facing a global emergency event.Further,we recommend the development of more locally based water conservation measures—to mitigate the effects of trade disruptions—and the explicit inclusion of water resources in post-pandemic recovery schemes.In addition,innovations that help conserve natural resources are essential for maintaining environmental gains in the post-pandemic world.
文摘CO2 emissions embodied in trade have an important and far-reaching impact on CO2 emissions reduction obligations. Based on a multi-regional inputoutput analysis, this paper calculates China＇s provincial CO2 emissions embodied in trade and analyzes CO2 emissions embodied in trade per unit of value of trade in 30 Chinese provinces. Several climate policy options that potentially reduce the impact of trade on individual provinces are discussed. One finding from this study is that provincial CO2 emissions embodied in trade accounted for approximately 60.02% of China＇s CO2 emissions in 2007. The CO2 emissions embodied in imports and exports for 30 Chinese provinces differ widely, and remarkable differences in the CO2 emissions embodied in trade per unit of value of trade exist. Another important finding, is that if provinces take binding commitments as a part of a coalition, instead of as individual provinces, then the impacts of trade can be reduced. Notably, however, the extent of reduction in a coalition varies in different provinces.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.70871108, 70810107020
文摘There has been considerable debate about the major factors responsible for the dramatic decline of China＇s energy intensity in the 1980s and 1990s. However, few detailed analysis has been done to explain the fluctuation in energy intensity during 2002-005. In this paper, we use the structural decomposition analysis （SDA） to decompose energy intensity into five determining factors： Energy input coefficient, technology coefficient （Leontief inverse coefficient）, final demands structure by product, final demands by category and final energy consumption coefficient. We then further decompose two coefficients, energy input coefficient and technology coefficient, into structure and real coefficient. Empirical study is carried out based on the energy-input-output tables from 1987 to 2005 in 2000 constant price. The results show that between 1987 and 2002, energy input structure accounts for most of the decline in energy intensity. However, the input structure and final demands structure by product explain the increase of the energy intensity between 2002 and 2005.
