This paper explores approaches concerning complex forest planning challenges, such as restoration after large-scale disturbances and under climate change. It introduces a new framework that integrates qualitative scen...This paper explores approaches concerning complex forest planning challenges, such as restoration after large-scale disturbances and under climate change. It introduces a new framework that integrates qualitative scenario planning with quantitative multi-criteria decision analysis. This framework allows stakeholders without background in forestry to express their preferences as a set of scenarios that are further assessed for specific forest management goals and activities using multi-criteria models. The assessment of the modelled scenarios created a common understanding for the stakeholders and experts to compare trade-offs between several management options and needed policy choices. The framework was applied in the case study of forest restoration following insect disturbance in British Columbia, Canada. The framework enabled structured stakeholder groups’ interactions such as industry, business associations, local and regional governments, and non-governmental organizations to identify potential restoration options. Different community futures were envisioned by two scenarios: one resembling current conditions and standard practices, while another promoting diversification of the forestry sector. The results indicated that each of the scenarios leads to different consequences for the community measured by levels of economic benefits, total harvest volumes and harvest flows over time. The results also show that the developed framework linking scenarios and multi-criteria decision analyses proved crucial to broaden the discussion on relevant species mixes and management practices, and their implications for the community and policy development.展开更多
【目的】为保护并优化高度城镇化地区的碳汇空间,有必要系统研究其时空演变特征及规律。【方法】本研究聚焦苏南地区“城镇尺度”的碳汇空间,在研究其时空演变特征的基础上,结合斑块生成土地利用变化模拟(patch-generating land use sim...【目的】为保护并优化高度城镇化地区的碳汇空间,有必要系统研究其时空演变特征及规律。【方法】本研究聚焦苏南地区“城镇尺度”的碳汇空间,在研究其时空演变特征的基础上,结合斑块生成土地利用变化模拟(patch-generating land use simulation,PLUS)模型和聚类分析法研判不同城镇综合响应状态,并提出差异化的碳汇空间管控策略。【结果】1)2000—2020年苏南地区碳汇空间面积大幅减少,减少区域高度集中于高价值碳汇空间。碳汇空间格局在城镇尺度上未因城镇化而全面瓦解,表现出较强的稳定性。2)通过对自然增长情景、碳汇保护情景、碳汇强化情景3种情景的模拟,发现加大碳汇空间保护力度能够实现高质量碳汇空间扩张,但需要警惕生态功能单一化风险,避免盲目追求“高碳汇系数”。3)在3种模拟情景下,大部分城镇碳汇空间结构较稳定,建议通过存量挖潜与功能置换等方式优化碳汇空间;而部分敏感型城镇则呈现差异化演变路径,需根据其具体风险类型,实施更具针对性的管控策略。【结论】快速城镇化地区碳汇空间面积虽然呈现缩减趋势,但在城镇尺度表现出稳定性与敏感性共存的特征。这一特性可通过多情景模拟研判,从而为制定差异化的城镇碳汇空间管控策略提供科学依据。展开更多
为明晰武汉市生态韧性特征,维护区域生态稳定与可持续发展,基于“抵抗力-适应力-恢复力”生态韧性评价模型,评估武汉市2000—2022年城市生态韧性时空演变特征,并利用斑块级土地利用变化模拟(patch-generating land use simulation,PLUS...为明晰武汉市生态韧性特征,维护区域生态稳定与可持续发展,基于“抵抗力-适应力-恢复力”生态韧性评价模型,评估武汉市2000—2022年城市生态韧性时空演变特征,并利用斑块级土地利用变化模拟(patch-generating land use simulation,PLUS)模型,设置自然发展、生态保护、建设优先3种发展情景,对2035年武汉市土地利用及生态韧性空间格局进行模拟预测。结果表明:①2000—2022年,武汉市耕地、草地、水域、未利用地面积波动减少,林地面积总体增加,建设用地持续扩张,主要由耕地、水域转入;②2000—2022年,武汉市生态韧性水平整体偏低,呈波动下降趋势,空间分布中间低、外围高,林地、水域及建设用地的变化影响生态韧性变化;③较2022年,2035年3种情景下耕地均减少,林地、水域、建设用地面积均增加,生态保护情景下林地、水域面积增加显著;④自然发展、生态保护情景生态韧性水平上升,建设优先情景生态韧性水平下降,与另2种情景相比,生态保护情景主城区周边及长江、汉江、滠水范围生态韧性等级提升,维持了优势及一般区域的空间连通性;⑤根据生态韧性现状及模拟结果,将研究区划分为4类生态管控区,并分别提出防范措施。保护生态用地,加强耕地保护与提升,控制建设用地扩张,有利于提高生态韧性,促进武汉市可持续发展与生态安全。展开更多
文摘This paper explores approaches concerning complex forest planning challenges, such as restoration after large-scale disturbances and under climate change. It introduces a new framework that integrates qualitative scenario planning with quantitative multi-criteria decision analysis. This framework allows stakeholders without background in forestry to express their preferences as a set of scenarios that are further assessed for specific forest management goals and activities using multi-criteria models. The assessment of the modelled scenarios created a common understanding for the stakeholders and experts to compare trade-offs between several management options and needed policy choices. The framework was applied in the case study of forest restoration following insect disturbance in British Columbia, Canada. The framework enabled structured stakeholder groups’ interactions such as industry, business associations, local and regional governments, and non-governmental organizations to identify potential restoration options. Different community futures were envisioned by two scenarios: one resembling current conditions and standard practices, while another promoting diversification of the forestry sector. The results indicated that each of the scenarios leads to different consequences for the community measured by levels of economic benefits, total harvest volumes and harvest flows over time. The results also show that the developed framework linking scenarios and multi-criteria decision analyses proved crucial to broaden the discussion on relevant species mixes and management practices, and their implications for the community and policy development.
文摘【目的】为保护并优化高度城镇化地区的碳汇空间,有必要系统研究其时空演变特征及规律。【方法】本研究聚焦苏南地区“城镇尺度”的碳汇空间,在研究其时空演变特征的基础上,结合斑块生成土地利用变化模拟(patch-generating land use simulation,PLUS)模型和聚类分析法研判不同城镇综合响应状态,并提出差异化的碳汇空间管控策略。【结果】1)2000—2020年苏南地区碳汇空间面积大幅减少,减少区域高度集中于高价值碳汇空间。碳汇空间格局在城镇尺度上未因城镇化而全面瓦解,表现出较强的稳定性。2)通过对自然增长情景、碳汇保护情景、碳汇强化情景3种情景的模拟,发现加大碳汇空间保护力度能够实现高质量碳汇空间扩张,但需要警惕生态功能单一化风险,避免盲目追求“高碳汇系数”。3)在3种模拟情景下,大部分城镇碳汇空间结构较稳定,建议通过存量挖潜与功能置换等方式优化碳汇空间;而部分敏感型城镇则呈现差异化演变路径,需根据其具体风险类型,实施更具针对性的管控策略。【结论】快速城镇化地区碳汇空间面积虽然呈现缩减趋势,但在城镇尺度表现出稳定性与敏感性共存的特征。这一特性可通过多情景模拟研判,从而为制定差异化的城镇碳汇空间管控策略提供科学依据。
文摘为明晰武汉市生态韧性特征,维护区域生态稳定与可持续发展,基于“抵抗力-适应力-恢复力”生态韧性评价模型,评估武汉市2000—2022年城市生态韧性时空演变特征,并利用斑块级土地利用变化模拟(patch-generating land use simulation,PLUS)模型,设置自然发展、生态保护、建设优先3种发展情景,对2035年武汉市土地利用及生态韧性空间格局进行模拟预测。结果表明:①2000—2022年,武汉市耕地、草地、水域、未利用地面积波动减少,林地面积总体增加,建设用地持续扩张,主要由耕地、水域转入;②2000—2022年,武汉市生态韧性水平整体偏低,呈波动下降趋势,空间分布中间低、外围高,林地、水域及建设用地的变化影响生态韧性变化;③较2022年,2035年3种情景下耕地均减少,林地、水域、建设用地面积均增加,生态保护情景下林地、水域面积增加显著;④自然发展、生态保护情景生态韧性水平上升,建设优先情景生态韧性水平下降,与另2种情景相比,生态保护情景主城区周边及长江、汉江、滠水范围生态韧性等级提升,维持了优势及一般区域的空间连通性;⑤根据生态韧性现状及模拟结果,将研究区划分为4类生态管控区,并分别提出防范措施。保护生态用地,加强耕地保护与提升,控制建设用地扩张,有利于提高生态韧性,促进武汉市可持续发展与生态安全。
